Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / NFL Survivor Pool Week 9 Review | 2025 Strategy, Picks & Lessons Learned

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NFL Survivor Pool Week 9 Review | 2025 Strategy, Picks & Lessons Learned · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: MHM fall systems going clear, we lived on.
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: What's going on everyone? This is sheets and we're gonna
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: be doing our recap of week eight nine of Survivor
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: Pool business. First of all, some some bad news for
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: me regarding Survivor Pool stuff. I had probably by far
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: the top strongest entry in the circus. In the Circus
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: Survivor Pool contest, it's like eighteen million for first or something,
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: no matter how you rated it, I was probably rated.
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: There's one other guy in the same entry as me.
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: But aside from that, I mean, we were clearly at
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: the best entries going to the end. And unfortunately we
• 1:21
  Speaker 2: went down with green Bay this past weekend, so I'm
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: maybe out of that. We'll get him next year. The
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: So let's let's review what we did last week, things
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: that we talked about. Again, it's going to be kind
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: of brief. I'd like to reserve the majority of what
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: we talk about for the premium show. And again, what
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: we do on the premium show is we is we.
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: You know, go into big you know a lot of
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: depth and detail on the options for week ten and
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: plan out hopefully how to get to the end to
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: Week eighteen. Talk about the differences between picks for single
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: pick pools and pick for double pick pools, and picks
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: for single pick pools that will become double pickpools. And
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: we will get to that more tomorrow, but I will
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: give at least some preview of what teams we're going
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: to be looking at. Now. This again, is the tool
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: that it's two parts right. Number one is the most
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: important is the customizable EV calculator where you can put
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: your own win percentages and projected ownerships in and will
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: calculate the evs. I can't demonstrate it right now because
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: it's already starting to migrate into week nine, excuse me,
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: into week ten, so it's kind of I can't demonstrator
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: right now, but it becomes very important as we get
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: down to the end, when predicting ownership is easier because
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: you know almost exactly what people are going to want
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: to do, especially in some of the smaller pools. Then
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: you can really have this this tool work for you
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: in a really really powerful way, and you can get
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: really really sharp EV calculations. What you do with those
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: EV calculations we'll talk about, but that's really important. And
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: then you have this kind of primitive look ahead map
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: which I admit is pretty poor static. But as we
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: go through it during the premium show, we talk about
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: the adjustments to be made, and you know, what teams
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: are going to look good going forward and how to
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: plan out your map. So last week, as it is
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: normally the case as you get down to this late
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: in the season, a lot of it depends on what
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: you have available and what you have left. So when
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: I make recommendations, I try my best to give options
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: depending on what you have. So last week, I mean,
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: I felt it was pretty clear that if you had
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: green Bay available in most your pools, you probably should
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: have used them. I mean, they were twelve percent owns
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: or thirteen percent owns, and they were like eighty percent
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: to win, and that translated to an EV at about
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: one point twenty. In some pools, you just can't you
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: just can't turn that down, you know, especially considering their
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: EV Their future value was was okay, but it wasn't
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: There wasn't any week where you one hundred percent needed
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: to have them. So green Bay clearly was the best play.
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: And you know, sometimes the best players don't win, so
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: that's what happened to that. Then we spent a lot
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: of time about the next options how to separate rams
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: from the chargers, for example, and we talked about how
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: they could take you know, very similar paths. But because
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: the rams were going to be like fifty percent owned
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: and the chargers twenty, I think it came down to
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: just to take the ev with the chargers now, so
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: that later, when the rams are fully depleted, you could
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: use them later and get even stronger EV than as well.
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: So we thought that the chargers were clearly the second
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: best option, and we played them over the Rams. Now again,
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: if you were managing a portfolio, want to play a
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: little Rams, Okay, that's not the end of the world.
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: But we finally settled on the Chargers being clearly the
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: best play, and that was really pretty much all you
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: could play. I thought last week I didn't think the
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: Rams were particularly playable except in portfolios, which again I'm
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: not gonna not gonna criticize you, I'm that. And then
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: there was to see wild. You know, I had wild
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: ideas that played maybe the Giants in only in pools
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: where you had a Sicilian entries and there was a
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: lot of people left and you wanted to take you know,
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: really really play play gambily Aside from that, it was
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: really just about green Bay and the chargers for me,
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: And unfortunately I had green Bay in the circum mode.
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: I had chargers in some other pools, but would have
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: been nice to have gotten green Bay across the finish
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: line just kind of show you, I mean, where we're
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: at here there are some of the splash pools. So
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: this is the the ship at Nation pool. So this
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: one you guys had. Guys got a lot of people
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: in this there's still eight hundred and eighty four people left,
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: which is a lot, but it's not that many when
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: you've realized that we're gonna be going to doubles here
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: next week. So we're gonna hopefully if you guys have
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: played this the way I've been recommending and you still
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: have some entries left, you're gonna have some bombs that
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: you're gonna be able to drop on people. And we'll
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: talk about the most intelligent way to do that this
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: week and then you know, specifically as we lead into doubles.
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: Now again for this tournament, for Shiping Nation tournament, it's
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: doubles don't start till twelve, and some of the other
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: tournaments the double start at eleven. And I'll try again
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: when we talk about this on Wednesdays to specify which
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: pools what we're talking about. So this actually breaks down
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: what happened in this pool last week. Last week, the
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: Rams were forty five percent on, Chargers were twenty four
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: and Packers. They were higher on to this tournament than
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: some of the others. And I guess that's why hic
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: UT punished. I suppose Ravens was four percent. Lions. I
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: thought that was a pretty poor play. I thought the
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: Cowboys were better played than the Lions. They both lost.
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: Lions lost their homes Minnesota. That was unexpected. But that's,
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: you know, that's football. Some of the others. Actually, let's
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: look at some some of the other pools here. Let's
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: let's look at this big splash one. This one was
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: again about ten percent of the people who are left
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: here a little at ship the nation you got, you
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: got a couple in here. We'll take a look at yours.
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: We'll take it again as we get through this, maybe
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: I'll take a look some people's entries in specific specifically,
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: by the way, I would not have done this. Oh,
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: but you had already used Green Bay. So it was
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: between the Chargers and the rams uh for for for
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: this entry. As we get down here, you know, if
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: you guys want again, I'm not in this one, so
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: I will I'll help you guys out again if you
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: want for the shipping nation guys, if you wanted to
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: come in there, and they'll give specific advice. See how
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: many entries you have left or whatever. This entry looks okay,
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: I wish we could have and seven. You know, Denver
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: was pretty good in this pool as I remember back
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: in seven. Now, of course you want them for ten,
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: but you can't. You can't have everything right. Hopefully there
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: are other entries that you have that maybe use them
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: in ten, but we'll talk about that tomorrow. Also, we
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: have some big some big buy and stuff. This is
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: the lets I'll show you. This is the big what
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: you might call it. Where is the where's the big one?
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: This is the five K. This one's down to twenty
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: five uh and we'll talk we'll talk about how to
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: analyze individual pools later. But a couple of things to know.
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: Two things are Number one is I am in this
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: one and we'll take that out for now. Let's go back.
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: A couple of things to note about this one. Number
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: one is that I'm still in a number two. We
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: have our own title. Town is in this one too,
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: so we might be battling this. And another thing to
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: kind of note is that there are many players in
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: here with multiple entries. So PJ five five five five,
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: he's got one, two three, He's got at least three entries.
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: E was wass I think has multiple entries. Hey, he's
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: got two. He lost a couple with Wow, he lost
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: three with Green Bay. And then you have b collection
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: with one, two three three. So what this this probos
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: an interesting dynamic. There's ab free and actually he's got
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: I think two. Yeah. So what ends up happening is
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: you can analyze sort of the nature of these entries.
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: So you look like PJ, for example, like last week,
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: I think he used a different team in each one
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: of his entries, So he had KC here and then
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: Indie here, I don't know they KC here, so and
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: then I thought I was looking at something else. I
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: thought he had a different one for each thing. And
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: so what this can do is this can kind of
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: mess with the ownership projections a little bit, because if
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: you had five people individuals, they'd probably all put the
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: best play in Okay, but if you had one person
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: with five picks, then maybe they would you know, do
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: some portfolio management and not put in five of the
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: best picks. So whoever the best play is might actually
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: be lower owned in in in tournaments or in contests
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: where there are people left with multiple entries. And well,
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: we'll maybe we'll we'll specifically talk about this contest tomorrow
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: when we get in there. Yeah, that's actually probably a
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: pretty good idea what other tournaments don't want to highlight.
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: That's pretty much it. The other thing I want to
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: talk about probably a little bit tomorrow, is there all
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: these revival contests that started like there there's there's contests
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: that started two days, two weeks ago. There are contests
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: that started they called Bloody Survivor where you have to
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: pick two picks per week, and then there's the Extra
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: Bloody Survivor where you have to pake three picks per week.
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: And I do think that those those contests number one,
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: are really good and number two, they're actually good practice
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: to get used to, like you know, figuring out really
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: who doesn't have future value and really how to map
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: out an entire an entire season. So that's pretty much
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: all I have for today again, just wanted to make
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: it sure to give you a little teaser of what
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: were gonna talk about tomorrow. Oh, actually, you know what
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: we can talk about a little bit. I mean, you're
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: gonna have one, two, three. There are four favorites above
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: seven that are probably gonna take a good amount of
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: the ownership. And then you have a couple of like
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: six point favorites which look really different, Like you have
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: one six point favorite which everybody has available and probably
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: not gonna use in the future, and then you have
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: another one that nobody has available, so they might end
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: up getting some pretty good ev if somebody has them available.
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: And then we'll deal with these big four favorites when
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: we get to it tomorrow, all right, that is gonna
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: do it. See tomorrow at three pm Eastern time. And
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: good luck.
• 13:16
  Speaker 3: Has past, has pass and still mother pants and sass pans,
• 13:45
  Speaker 3: buns and moss hags stops them. St