Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Favorites - NFL Betting Recap Week 16

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The Favorites - NFL Betting Recap Week 16 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: Live from our Tommy John Home Studios. I am Chad
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: Moment of the Action Network. This is our Sunday night episode.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: We will review the faves five picks we put into
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: the contest. We're going to dissect why we left some
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: games out. We're going to preview the early lines we
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: already like for a full week of NFL football in
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: week seventeen games Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday, Sunday. I'm joined as
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: always by my cost, my companion, my campadre, my BFF
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: professional Better Assignment Hunter.
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: Hello, so a man, Chad, How are we doing, dude?
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: We are two and two on the day. We have
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys plus four and a half tonight. This is
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: the week where we looked in the face of the
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: gambling gods and the trends of Favorites dominating, and we said,
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: screw you. Good teams with great quarterbacks, we will not
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: be intimidated. We didn't like every dog today, we did
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: like some. After the early window there had been on Sunday,
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: there had been ten NFL games played, so the Thursday,
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: the Saturday Sunday Favorites had won eight of them. Simon,
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: It's an unbelievable trend. And while we did have a
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: favorite in our top five today, somehow it's the only
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: favorite that didn't cover, But we were on both underdogs
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: that covered in the early window. This may be the
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: most exciting post games review we've ever had. Like two
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: games we were really sure of, gave us all the
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: reasons to feel unsure, yet delivered two games we were
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: least sure of.
• 2:11
  Speaker 3: The one game we.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: Loved for every reason except for one did not go
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: our way for exactly the reason we feared.
• 2:21
  Speaker 3: We're going to break that down.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: We're going to play a little clip that shows how
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: much we were foreshadowing our fears. Amazing Topsy Turvy bet
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: the number early part of the day, we will get
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: to it. Programming note for this upcoming week holiday week
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: Christmas on Wednesday, our live episode of the Favorites on
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: Tuesday is going to be at eleven a m.
• 2:46
  Speaker 3: Eastern.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: We're going to go early because Tuesday afternoon evening we're
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: getting into the Christmas Eve window. We want to make
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: sure we put it out well. People still may be
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: traveling or have a chance to listen before they're preoccupied
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: with their families or watching football. Catch every episode of
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: The Favorites live on YouTube. For those enjoying on YouTube,
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: don't forget to give us a like and subscribe to
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: the Action Network YouTube page. As a reminder, The Favorites
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: podcast is presented by Bet three six.
• 3:17
  Speaker 3: Five now new bed three sixty five.
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: Customers get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: when you bet five dollars, sign up using promo code
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: Favorites deposit ten dollars. Place a bet for five dollars
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: to get one hundred and fifty in bonus bets. Those
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. At Bet
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: three sixty five. Must be twenty one or older in
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: presenton Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: Iowa terms. Conditions restriction is apply. All right, You're ready
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: to roll Simon. Let's start with our early loss, early
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: window loss the Rams at the New York Jets. We
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: had the Jets plus three and a half Gifford, Producer, Gifford,
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: are you ready? Because I want us to play a
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: clip of our convo from Thursday?
• 4:14
  Speaker 3: Do you remember, Simon? Do you remember that conversation?
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: Do you remember our biggest fear about betting the Jets
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: when we talked about it on Thursday?
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: I do not.
• 4:24
  Speaker 3: Gifford, are you ready to play this clip? You can
• 4:26
  Speaker 3: tell me in the chat?
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: He is ready. All right, Here we go play it.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: This is the scary party. They're very unqualified, ill equipped
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: head coach who knows less about clock management than just
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: about anybody watching Red Zone on a Sunday afternoon. It's
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: actually astonishing how bad he is at it. So if
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: we get screwed in this game, this is why I
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: worry a little bit about Jeff Olbrook, just not understanding
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: the base of construct of clock management. I don't know
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: about you, Simon, but I put us losing that game
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: squarely on.
• 5:01
  Speaker 3: The shoulders of Jeff Ulbrick.
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: And his asinine, idiotic go back to being a defensive
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: coordinator or probably a linebackers coach or maybe coaching high
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: school football, because he does not understand anything about the
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: strategy of managing fourth downs managing the clock. At the
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: NFL level, an NFL coach has responsibility for two things
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: on game day. That's it, are you going forward and
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: fourth down? And how are you managing the clock? He
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: makes the wrong call every single time. I'm referring to
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: the first quarter. The Jets dominate the game. They look amazing.
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: They look Aaron Rodgers is slinging it, Devonte Adams is
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: catching it. The Rams look exactly like we think they're
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: going to look. They look a little bit out of sorts.
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: They look like the team that had been overvalued. The
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: Jets look like the team that is finally figuring it out.
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: In my head, I was thinking, oh my god, the
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: Jets are probably going to do something so stupid, like
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: Woody Johnson's kids are going to decide they have to
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: keep Aaron Rodgers for next year.
• 6:08
  Speaker 3: That's how well he was playing.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: They're up six to nothing because of course they score
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: a touchdown and missed the extra point. They had just
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: intercepted Stafford, who was a wreck.
• 6:17
  Speaker 3: At this point.
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: There's no reason to be aggressive in the game. You
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: are dominating this game, you punt the ball if you're
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: not going to get close to a first down, and
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: you make Stafford prove it on their own thirty three
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: with eight minutes left in the second quarter. They go
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: for it on fourth and one, get stuffed, the Rams
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: score a touchdown. It's back and forth the rest of
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: the day. What was your thought on that particular play,
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: because in my head, I'm like, this guy's truly a
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: fucking Putts.
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: Yeah, every call he made flip the momentum.
• 6:54
  Speaker 4: Like the Jets defense, not that they dominate the game,
• 6:57
  Speaker 4: but Stafford only had what one and ten hundred and
• 6:59
  Speaker 4: fifteen pass Like, he didn't have a good day at all.
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: He wasn't.
• 7:03
  Speaker 4: Like we talked about, they were playing so all the Jets,
• 7:05
  Speaker 4: and basically every point that the Rams had came off
• 7:10
  Speaker 4: a Jets bad decision, Right, it was either the head
• 7:12
  Speaker 4: coach or Rogers. And yeah, like going for that fourth
• 7:16
  Speaker 4: down on their own thirty was terrible. Not taking the
• 7:19
  Speaker 4: three to go up six, Yeah.
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: It was a terrible decision.
• 7:23
  Speaker 4: And obviously going for it at midfield once again and
• 7:26
  Speaker 4: yet not getting it. It's just like every everything that
• 7:29
  Speaker 4: could have gone wrong and then that Rodgers obviously Rodgers
• 7:31
  Speaker 4: full will turnover. But yeah, they basically outplayed the Rams
• 7:35
  Speaker 4: in that game, but they just mentally gave away the game,
• 7:39
  Speaker 4: like they gave it away in so many different ways
• 7:41
  Speaker 4: with those bad calls that you're right, it's it's brutal,
• 7:44
  Speaker 4: But it was just like we talked about, it's the
• 7:47
  Speaker 4: other dogs you bet today. It's like, you bet these
• 7:48
  Speaker 4: teams in these good spots, but you obviously need luck
• 7:51
  Speaker 4: and bounce.
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: To go your way.
• 7:53
  Speaker 4: And we had a game today where every bounce went
• 7:55
  Speaker 4: against us and we still somehow covered and that team
• 7:57
  Speaker 4: went out right, we're in this game. There were still
• 8:00
  Speaker 4: those opportunities for this Jets team, and they couldn't stop
• 8:03
  Speaker 4: shooting themselves on the foot like even the opportunity was
• 8:06
  Speaker 4: given to them, the Rams kept letting them hang around,
• 8:08
  Speaker 4: stay in the game to cover the number, and it
• 8:10
  Speaker 4: all basically came down to Devati Adams turned the wrong
• 8:14
  Speaker 4: way on a fourth down or I think that might
• 8:16
  Speaker 4: have been third down midfield, Rogers throws a bad bad spot,
• 8:21
  Speaker 4: they don't get on fourth down, and then all of
• 8:23
  Speaker 4: a sudden the Rams come down score again. It's like,
• 8:25
  Speaker 4: well that BET's officially dead. So yeah, brutal bet, brutal
• 8:28
  Speaker 4: team in the Jets. I mean, I'm I'm happy the
• 8:31
  Speaker 4: season is almost over, the playoffs, so we won't have
• 8:33
  Speaker 4: to bet this Jets team anymore.
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: So what you're referring to is this is a nine
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: to six game in the second quarter, and that it's
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: clearly a defensive battle where points are going to be
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: at a premium. Anyone watching this game's no watching this
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: game knows you just got to get as many points
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: as you can. Because Stafford is struggling so much in
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: this game, the only thing that's working for them is
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: Kyron Williams. Fourth and four from their own twelve from
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: the Rams twelve, he decides to go for it. Jeff Ulbrick,
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: this guy thinks he's like Dan Campbell, only without the
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: talent and without the strategic thought of when you should
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: actually be going on fourth down.
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: Even worse, I don't I don't think it's him, Chat.
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: I think it's it's Rogers.
• 9:24
  Speaker 4: He's going to make these decisions because it feels like
• 9:27
  Speaker 4: every time it's Rogers standing on the field waving or
• 9:28
  Speaker 4: waving guys off.
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: And it's like, dude, do not let this crazy.
• 9:32
  Speaker 4: Guy who might have him be here in about two weeks,
• 9:34
  Speaker 4: keep making all these decisions, Like obviously Rogers Lewis was
• 9:37
  Speaker 4: to go with the guy thinks he can complete it
• 9:38
  Speaker 4: every time.
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: So I'm with you. It's like the man has no backbone.
• 9:42
  Speaker 4: He kept making the wrong calls, not understanding the way
• 9:45
  Speaker 4: the game was and.
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: Just how much momentums team had.
• 9:48
  Speaker 4: Like you said, they just had so many opportunities that
• 9:51
  Speaker 4: you would put Stafford once again in that bad position,
• 9:53
  Speaker 4: have to pass instead, let him keep having the lead
• 9:55
  Speaker 4: where they can just keep running the ball. And that's
• 9:57
  Speaker 4: the best thing they had today that I mean, you know,
• 9:59
  Speaker 4: Williams the average number five yards to carry, Like that's
• 10:02
  Speaker 4: really their bread and butter day in this game.
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: So the other player referring to is they were down
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: ten with two minutes, two seconds to go. It's fourth
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: and four from midfield. They're going to go for it,
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: as they should. In my head, I was already thinking, yeah,
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: they'll get to the twenty with one point fifteen left
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: and it'll be fourth down and they'll just kick the
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: field goal there, so like what does it matter?
• 10:24
  Speaker 3: Instead it's fourth and four.
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: They get a false start of course, because they had
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: so many penalties in critical situations, They're pushed back nine yards,
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: they go for the field goal, they miss it. Can
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: you recall a coach that when you're handicapping, you've had
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: to so aggressively consider his ineptitude when you are thinking
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: about betting that game, when you are making a number
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: for that game. At this point, I feel like you
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: have to take the Jets down for or there because
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: of his inability to assess what is happening right in
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: front of him.
• 11:08
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean the Saints coach I fired this year
• 11:10
  Speaker 4: was absolutely the worst ever, right historically, I think I
• 11:12
  Speaker 4: haven't always told us that.
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: Yeah, no, I was trying to.
• 11:16
  Speaker 4: Think, is that what was the guy's name was a
• 11:18
  Speaker 4: mcdou I forget the name of the Giants coach, but
• 11:20
  Speaker 4: he had a point where Mack do ma could do.
• 11:22
  Speaker 4: He hit a point where it was like anything this
• 11:24
  Speaker 4: guy was doing, I wanted to fade him, like he
• 11:27
  Speaker 4: canpletely have lost of the locker room. I remember when
• 11:29
  Speaker 4: he benched Eli Manning. Yeah, should jump out.
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you know that's a good call, Like this guy,
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: even if it's Aaron Rodgers, like you should know enough
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: that you're playing for your coaching for next year. Maybe
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: you're not going to be a head coach, but maybe
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: if you show some semblance of backbone, some ability to
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: manage a situation, some understanding of what is important in
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: terms of the clock, going for it all that. I
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: don't think Aaron Rodgers is saying, let's go forward and
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: fourth and one from the thirty. I think that's Jeff
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: Olbrick deciding that they're going to do it. I mean,
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: maybe we'll I don't know if we'll ever find out,
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: but I can't imagine Aaron Rodgers is saying that.
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: I can.
• 12:15
  Speaker 4: But again, I might be thinking too much because I'm
• 12:17
  Speaker 4: watching this documentary right now. I don't know if you are,
• 12:19
  Speaker 4: and it is it is eye opening. Me and Aaron
• 12:22
  Speaker 4: Rodgers would be good friends. He is an absolute character.
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: They're just what a freaking train wreck. I thought we
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: had him a good spot. We did have him a
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: good spot.
• 12:33
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I wish we should just Unfortunately, obviously we can't
• 12:36
  Speaker 4: take first half here, but that clearly was the move
• 12:38
  Speaker 4: with that Jets team. They didn't score a single point
• 12:40
  Speaker 4: in the second half.
• 12:42
  Speaker 3: Amazing.
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: Arizona at Carolina five and a half. Look, we love
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: the Panthers and Panthers in this spot. We had high
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: expectations for them. They totally dominated this game. At what
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: point they were up twenty to three, we were feeling
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: really good. The Cardinals knuck back in it. All of
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: a sudden, they score fourteenth straight is twenty seventeen. I
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: was still feeling pretty good, like we got a good
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: number in the contest. We got five and a half.
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: So the way the Panthers were playing and they were
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: dominating on the ground, the Cardinals really couldn't stop them.
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: I felt like we were going to chew clock and
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: that we were going to have a chance to maybe
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: trade points, trade field goals, whatever. Then it got a
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: little wacky. Yeah, At one point, Bryce Harper played exactly
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: like the guy we've been betting at right, Bryce Young.
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: I meance Harper's on your mind, though, chat.
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: Bryce Harper might be better than half the quarterbacks in
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: the NFL. On a critical short yardage play late in
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: the second half, Bryce Young got hit so hard in
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: the face and he side armed a ball they could first.
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: Down, perfect ball, perfect ball. Getting smashed in.
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: The face like he was hit so hard, I thought
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: he wouldn't get up, Like I just thought I can't believe.
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: I can't believe. Again.
• 14:04
  Speaker 4: We talked about it coming a year, how small he is.
• 14:06
  Speaker 4: He just takes these insane hits, and like you said,
• 14:09
  Speaker 4: he gets up smiling.
• 14:10
  Speaker 3: It's crazy smiling.
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: After that, I swear to god, I thought to myself,
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: it's so sad that he died on the field, but
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: at least he died doing what he loves and keeping
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: this game close. And maybe we still got a shot
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: with Andy dob No.
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: It's like that old uh, I forget.
• 14:25
  Speaker 4: I don't know if it was Bruce Lee, but it
• 14:27
  Speaker 4: was like, basically like the guys who are the best
• 14:29
  Speaker 4: are like feathers who can take punches right. You don't
• 14:32
  Speaker 4: want to be punched like your metal. You be punch
• 14:33
  Speaker 4: them like you're a feather, like you can eat those hits.
• 14:36
  Speaker 4: I don't know how he does it because he should
• 14:37
  Speaker 4: have been dead. Like you said, it was a three
• 14:39
  Speaker 4: hundred pound man, literally full speed level in when he
• 14:42
  Speaker 4: was mid throw.
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: It was crazy.
• 14:44
  Speaker 4: I still can't get over. That's basically what that game
• 14:46
  Speaker 4: came down to in a lot of ways.
• 14:47
  Speaker 5: But look, but on the next like on the next
• 14:50
  Speaker 5: two or three plays, he lost a perfect accurate moonball
• 14:57
  Speaker 5: over the outside shoulder to their receiver.
• 15:00
  Speaker 3: They scored touch on they're up thirty to twenty.
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: Yeah was that more? Was that the more touch?
• 15:04
  Speaker 3: That was the past to more?
• 15:06
  Speaker 4: Yeah again, Yeah, a lot of big time throws. But
• 15:10
  Speaker 4: I mean, I honestly thought we were dead. I can't
• 15:13
  Speaker 4: believe you didn't think we were dead when it came down.
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: To that overtime.
• 15:15
  Speaker 3: No, you know what, I thought it was dead.
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: I wish we could do since we're such a high
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: production organization. Nice job Matt Mitchell and Gifford on the
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: on the adding the clip with Ulbrick. But in my notes,
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: I swear to God in my notes with about right
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: after Kyle Murray scored, Kyler Murray scored and they scored
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: was thirty to twenty seven. I wrote in my notes,
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: this is a nightmare scenario. This game's going to overtime.
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: We're gonna lose by six. That's exactly what I wrote
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: in my notes when he scored to make it thirty
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: to twenty seven. Like I saw OT six seven minutes
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: out from it happening. Forget about when it went to
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: ot when we got that coin flip.
• 16:05
  Speaker 3: I like.
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: The thrill I had with Carolina winning that coin flip
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: cannot be explained me too.
• 16:13
  Speaker 4: And it especially just because of what had happened to
• 16:15
  Speaker 4: us in that late window. We went from being a
• 16:17
  Speaker 4: pretty cruise two and one to all of sudder, We're
• 16:19
  Speaker 4: looking at h and three, and I was just like,
• 16:21
  Speaker 4: this is literally our season in a nutshell, Like everything
• 16:24
  Speaker 4: just goes wrong in these fourth quarters for us with
• 16:26
  Speaker 4: these dogs, and it's just been this year. He's just
• 16:29
  Speaker 4: been a grind like our dogs. The only way dogs
• 16:31
  Speaker 4: hitting now is if they went outright basically.
• 16:33
  Speaker 3: Like they have to be perfect nearly perfect, yeah.
• 16:36
  Speaker 4: And they're just these breaks have to keep going their way,
• 16:38
  Speaker 4: Like it's it is crazy where you get these comfortable
• 16:41
  Speaker 4: leads and it's like no, like like you said, Carolina
• 16:44
  Speaker 4: gets up big and it's like we can still do
• 16:46
  Speaker 4: the gambling math and see how this could go the
• 16:49
  Speaker 4: other way and we could still not cover. But yeah,
• 16:53
  Speaker 4: a game that not that people are trying to talk
• 16:54
  Speaker 4: me off of it, but like a lot of people
• 16:57
  Speaker 4: I know were on the Cardinals and a lot of
• 16:59
  Speaker 4: heavy money came in late and bumped that number up,
• 17:01
  Speaker 4: like you just said, to five and a half. Some
• 17:03
  Speaker 4: books were at six a kickoff for that game. So
• 17:07
  Speaker 4: you know, that's one of those that's like a little
• 17:09
  Speaker 4: scary because it's a moving against us and we're like
• 17:12
  Speaker 4: already pot committed kind of on Carolina, Like we didn't
• 17:14
  Speaker 4: even talk about switching them out right.
• 17:15
  Speaker 3: So no, we did. We did.
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: We did talk about switching out Carolina and Washington.
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: I would say Washington I would have understood, but like.
• 17:26
  Speaker 3: We talked about both of them.
• 17:27
  Speaker 4: Yeah, for Detroit once you said though five and a half.
• 17:29
  Speaker 4: Though for Carolina in my mind there was no way
• 17:32
  Speaker 4: I know of taking it out. But yeah, that that
• 17:34
  Speaker 4: would have been just a brutal beat to lose two
• 17:37
  Speaker 4: to again. The other time we covered two when they
• 17:39
  Speaker 4: lost in every time because it was a field goal.
• 17:41
  Speaker 4: But it was just like, man, they can't blow this game.
• 17:44
  Speaker 4: Like they played so well, Brace shungk played so and yeah,
• 17:48
  Speaker 4: again tough times for dogs Chef, Like two dogs we
• 17:51
  Speaker 4: took had to win outright for us to basically cover
• 17:54
  Speaker 4: the number.
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: I have an idea for my next book, and it's
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: about sports betting, and gambler's math.
• 18:04
  Speaker 3: Will be part of.
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: This book because the math that everybody does when they
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: are trying to figure out not how they are going
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: to win a game, how they are going to get
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: fucked in a game is astonishing, and I wish like
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: everybody who isn't Dave sports Better knew that what everyone
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: else in the room who is a sports better was
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: doing in their head as they were watching any of
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: these games, because I like every scenario, I was thinking,
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: this is how we're gonna get screwed here, this is
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: how we're gonna get screwed here, this is how we're
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: going to get screwed here. And yet with these two games,
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: Carolina and now Washington, who we had it, I think
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: four and a half, right, yeah, four and a half
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: because that number money came steaming in on Philadelphia on
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: Sunday morning. This was a dead bat in the first quarter.
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: Oh yeah, they like they looked terrible. And this was
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: the game we really talked about putting in. We talked
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: about like Caroline in Washington, but really it was Washington,
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: like we felt most uncomfortable with this game. We both
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: did all week like it was your signon says, but
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: like it didn't really move in the direction we thought
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: it was going to move.
• 19:27
  Speaker 4: No, it's another week of like, ole guys, I respect
• 19:30
  Speaker 4: old heads, you know, they're really loving that Eagles team,
• 19:33
  Speaker 4: and we basically saw it for that first quarter, Like
• 19:36
  Speaker 4: you just said, I was like, holy shit, they were right.
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: We just walked right into us. They could not stop Barkley.
• 19:42
  Speaker 4: Like I had so many guys talking to me about
• 19:44
  Speaker 4: this is a terrible matchup for Barkley. That quietly flipped
• 19:48
  Speaker 4: that once hers went out. Yeah, they were able to
• 19:51
  Speaker 4: stop Barkley. And you know, a game in which me
• 19:55
  Speaker 4: and Chad got incredibly lucky. Kenny Pickett did not lay
• 19:57
  Speaker 4: down and die. That kid played well in that game
• 20:01
  Speaker 4: and showed up in pretty big moments, and we basically
• 20:04
  Speaker 4: just needed a ton of little breaks to go away,
• 20:07
  Speaker 4: just because Washington came out, you know, not played their
• 20:09
  Speaker 4: worst game. Obviously, they put up over thirty points, but
• 20:13
  Speaker 4: five turnovers. You never come back from that with a
• 20:16
  Speaker 4: rookie against the number one defense on football, like.
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: You never have that.
• 20:19
  Speaker 4: So basically everything we talked about came true with that
• 20:23
  Speaker 4: Eagles team. In that spot where you have this emotional
• 20:26
  Speaker 4: high win against Pittsburgh, you come in and the littlest
• 20:30
  Speaker 4: thing went wrong with Hurts going out again. It's not
• 20:33
  Speaker 4: like they're reacted, they fell apart from it, but it
• 20:35
  Speaker 4: clearly messed up the mindset of the whole team altogether,
• 20:37
  Speaker 4: because that defense just didn't look right the rest of
• 20:40
  Speaker 4: the game for.
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: The most part, like they were flying.
• 20:43
  Speaker 4: To start the game, and then all of a sudden,
• 20:45
  Speaker 4: it kind of shifted the mood of the whole team.
• 20:47
  Speaker 4: And you know, props to Ketty Pickett. I mean, he
• 20:50
  Speaker 4: kept the Eagles in that game and gave us a sweat.
• 20:52
  Speaker 4: But Jayden Daniels, you know, just locked up Rookie of
• 20:55
  Speaker 4: the Year, just a truly incredible performance where his running back,
• 20:58
  Speaker 4: think you fumbled twice Robinson and he's throwing picks all
• 21:01
  Speaker 4: over the all over the place, and he still took
• 21:04
  Speaker 4: him down that final drive and a touchdown we had
• 21:07
  Speaker 4: to have because you know, like you just said, we
• 21:09
  Speaker 4: were on a bad number. It was on five because
• 21:11
  Speaker 4: of his stupid pick and that when he threw that
• 21:13
  Speaker 4: pick and they went to five, I was like, oh mean,
• 21:15
  Speaker 4: Chad are dead here.
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: There's no way he's gonna drive the field with this
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: amount of time.
• 21:18
  Speaker 4: And yeah, basically, DeVante Smith gave us the luckiest drop
• 21:23
  Speaker 4: and again the Eagles had had two losses this year
• 21:26
  Speaker 4: on drops. The saue to gets to Lanta in this
• 21:28
  Speaker 4: drop year, and it's like me and Chad needed that
• 21:32
  Speaker 4: got really lucky. It happened, but it was like the
• 21:34
  Speaker 4: classic thing of you know, it was eventually going to
• 21:37
  Speaker 4: break away some of these some of these games just
• 21:39
  Speaker 4: because we had been so historically unlucky. So yeah, pretty
• 21:42
  Speaker 4: insane that all came down to Devonte drop because I
• 21:44
  Speaker 4: think when they scored, there might have been six seconds
• 21:46
  Speaker 4: left and he would have caught that it went to
• 21:47
  Speaker 4: the would have went to the two minute and the
• 21:49
  Speaker 4: way first down, so they basical would have it would
• 21:51
  Speaker 4: have been over.
• 21:52
  Speaker 3: They would have run it out at thirty three twenty eight.
• 21:54
  Speaker 5: Uh.
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: We talked about putting the Lions in here, and there
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: was a moment, as always happens back to back, Saquon
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: scores on a sixty eight yard touchdown right after Jamison
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: Williams for the Lions catches.
• 22:11
  Speaker 3: An eighty yard bomb.
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: In that moment, I was having such regret, Like I'm like,
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: I was just thinking, well, at least the Jets are dominating,
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: and at least the Panthers are dominating.
• 22:26
  Speaker 3: But like I was truly having.
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: Such better as regret even with herts out, they're down
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: twenty one to seven. I felt like we were always
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: in it because Kenny Pickett played great in the end.
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: But the reason Saquon didn't do anything is because the
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: commanders knew Kenny Pickett wasn't going to be able to
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: do anything, and they could just load the box and
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: stop Saquon from getting any yardage whatsoever. And they still
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: did everything they could to throw this game away. Between
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: the two picks Jayden Nanna fumble in the second half,
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: AJ Brown drew sixty eight yards of pass interference penalties
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: on Marshawn Lattimore. That was as many yards almost as
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: he had in the first half receiving, Like can you.
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: Pickett had two great plays, one of them on fourth
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: and seven to AJ. But we got very lucky in
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: that game. Even on the game winning play. If you watch,
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: you're gonna go back and watch the film. I know,
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: on the game winning play, see how early the commander's
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: right tackle went.
• 23:27
  Speaker 3: He was like, I'd say.
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: Zero point two to point three seconds before the snap,
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: like to the point where my kids sitting next to me.
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: He goes, well, there's a flag. I'm like, what he
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: goes the right tackle went early. I'm like, I know,
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: but they didn't throw it like it was so obvious,
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: and I was surprised the announcers didn't say anything, cause,
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: like it was, it was so fundamentally clear. I thought
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: we were just gonna lose it on that.
• 23:53
  Speaker 4: Yeah, and the refs though, are all bizarre, Like think
• 23:56
  Speaker 4: some of those calls against AJ were just upscene like
• 23:59
  Speaker 4: they literally but the Eagles basically drive the field for
• 24:02
  Speaker 4: that whole kept calling holds in past interference. But yeah,
• 24:07
  Speaker 4: for me, it's, you know, a game where we got lucky,
• 24:12
  Speaker 4: we played the number, but we always talk about there's
• 24:14
  Speaker 4: certain spots, and that was just a bad spot for
• 24:16
  Speaker 4: that Eagles team. And now they're in a position that
• 24:19
  Speaker 4: you know, they have some real decisions to make. How
• 24:21
  Speaker 4: bad this hurts concussion is because obviously couldn't come back
• 24:24
  Speaker 4: in this game.
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: So you know, as an.
• 24:25
  Speaker 4: Eagles fan, I'm happy it's nothing to do with his body,
• 24:28
  Speaker 4: but we all know how hard it is to come
• 24:30
  Speaker 4: back from cushions. Depending on the concussion, right, if this
• 24:32
  Speaker 4: is a bad one, he could be out to the playoffs.
• 24:35
  Speaker 4: If it's not that big of a deal, like we'll
• 24:36
  Speaker 4: know early in this week. Obviously come back this week.
• 24:38
  Speaker 4: But yeah, we were never going to cover this number.
• 24:41
  Speaker 4: If it was Jalen Hurts in the full game.
• 24:42
  Speaker 3: Yeah, totally not New England at Buffalo.
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: So, you know, eight favorites cover in the early window,
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: including Michael Pennix and the huge favorites over the Giants
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: which we never considered, and the Lions at six and
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: a half, which we thought about, and the Bengals at
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: seven and a half, which, excuse me, which grew even
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: bigger as we got I think it was close to
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: ten before kickoff.
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: Only three. You know, if only three dogs covered this
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: whole weekend, right.
• 25:14
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's absurd.
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: Well, it depends, it depends, because anyways, we didn't choose
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: any of those. We went all in on the Buffalo Bills.
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: We I mean me to the point where even professional
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: Better was worried about my sanity, because why wouldn't you
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: bet the best player in a home game in which
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: he historically dominates and covers huge numbers against a really
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: really terrible team who's got offensive turmoil and a defense
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: that hasn't been able to stop anybody all year. Oh yeah,
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: the Bills couldn't stop anybody. Drake May looked like Josh
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: Allen pass were five of eight on third downs, They
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: were one for one on fourth down in the first
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: half because the execu to fake punt from their own
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: twenty two like the Pats game seven and a half
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: yurs per play, it was a freaking debacle.
• 26:10
  Speaker 4: Yeah, it's kind of game. It's the best. It's the
• 26:12
  Speaker 4: dream if you bet the dog in it. Because, like
• 26:14
  Speaker 4: you just said, Drake May came out firing and he
• 26:17
  Speaker 4: looked ready for this game, where Josh Allen looked all
• 26:20
  Speaker 4: out of sorts. Like we talked about it, you know,
• 26:23
  Speaker 4: we tried catching on him against the Lions because we
• 26:24
  Speaker 4: knew he was gonna he was due for a bad game.
• 26:27
  Speaker 4: They had done something that strike, they had scored thirty
• 26:29
  Speaker 4: points or more eighth straight games.
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: Eventually goes the other way.
• 26:33
  Speaker 4: It's just, I mean, he is superhuman, but it's like,
• 26:36
  Speaker 4: you know, a lot of we talked about a lot
• 26:37
  Speaker 4: of the throws he was making. They were bad decisions.
• 26:39
  Speaker 4: They were working out for him because he's just that talented.
• 26:42
  Speaker 4: In this game, he just didn't get away over it right,
• 26:43
  Speaker 4: The bounces didn't go his way. They're clearly the better
• 26:47
  Speaker 4: team in every metric. Like when they when they wanted
• 26:50
  Speaker 4: to turn it on, they did turn it on. You know, defensively,
• 26:52
  Speaker 4: they completely stopped everything that Patriots had momentum wise.
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: I mean they were up.
• 26:57
  Speaker 4: Yeah fourteen early in the second quarter and they didn't
• 26:59
  Speaker 4: score another point until the very last two minutes of
• 27:02
  Speaker 4: the game. So that just shows like obviously the Bill's defense,
• 27:05
  Speaker 4: you know, it's a big worry.
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: Everyone's talking about it. We know that they're they're they're
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: not as.
• 27:10
  Speaker 4: Terrible as they've looked against all these offenses last couple
• 27:12
  Speaker 4: of weeks, but there is something to it. Like you
• 27:15
  Speaker 4: talked earlier, in that game, Drake May was moving up
• 27:18
  Speaker 4: and down the field and they're running the ball down
• 27:20
  Speaker 4: the Bill's throat. So Josh Allen basically was the one
• 27:24
  Speaker 4: that screwed the end of this. Like their defense did enough,
• 27:27
  Speaker 4: they got us a defensive touchdown. You figure Josh Allen's
• 27:30
  Speaker 4: gonna cover that number. You know, got a little banged up,
• 27:34
  Speaker 4: but it was just at the end of the day,
• 27:35
  Speaker 4: he just had an off night. Like even Cook had
• 27:37
  Speaker 4: a good game running the ball like he was all about.
• 27:40
  Speaker 4: Josh Allen, he just finally had a bad game. So yeah,
• 27:43
  Speaker 4: if he has another one, lamar noise starts becoming a
• 27:47
  Speaker 4: little more more real. Right, It's it's it's gonna get
• 27:50
  Speaker 4: a little tighter here because he does have an easy
• 27:52
  Speaker 4: schedule ending here. He's gonna go New England to Now
• 27:55
  Speaker 4: he's playing the Jets to back to New England. So yeah,
• 27:58
  Speaker 4: well we'll see what the injury is for Joshulling on
• 28:00
  Speaker 4: his hand or if it's his elbow. But tough, tough
• 28:03
  Speaker 4: bet that we lost this one, especially because every favorite cover,
• 28:08
  Speaker 4: Like we talked Detroit, you try to talk.
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: Me into Cincy.
• 28:12
  Speaker 4: I couldn't get there that number one from seven and
• 28:14
  Speaker 4: a half up to nine and a half by kickoff.
• 28:17
  Speaker 4: They got crazy lucky to cover that number. I mean
• 28:20
  Speaker 4: very lucky every little thing. I think they had two
• 28:22
  Speaker 4: or three red zone turnovers, you know, walking touchdown call
• 28:27
  Speaker 4: back on a holding for the Browns.
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: They go down and score a touchdown.
• 28:31
  Speaker 4: They didn't even need to score, right, they're trying to
• 28:32
  Speaker 4: run the clock out, they jump off.
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: He just throws a purflet ball to Chase.
• 28:36
  Speaker 4: So uh, it's just been that kind of season chat
• 28:38
  Speaker 4: where it's like, you know, we're not we're not favorite betters.
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: We've been trying to do it.
• 28:43
  Speaker 4: Even this week, I thought favorites were gonna get smoked,
• 28:46
  Speaker 4: like the public. They're just betting these moneyline parlays of
• 28:50
  Speaker 4: all these favorites and they're just cashing every week. It's crazy,
• 28:54
  Speaker 4: but they did it again. So yeah, hopefully the dog
• 28:57
  Speaker 4: that we like tonight comes through again. It's a professional side.
• 29:02
  Speaker 4: We've seen it cut down to three and a half
• 29:03
  Speaker 4: in a couple of books now this Cowboys line, so.
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: Still feel confident about it.
• 29:07
  Speaker 4: But after seeing all these Favorite stage chat it's like,
• 29:09
  Speaker 4: I don't know what I'm looking at. It's just it
• 29:12
  Speaker 4: doesn't make sense. We're in a Twilight world right now.
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: We're going to talk about week seventeen on the other
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: side of this read and I said before we came
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: on the air, I feel like I'm reading hieroglyphics because
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: I don't know how to look at this sort of
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: on Sunday night in the heat of the moment without
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: taking a beat and really breaking some of it down
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: and trying to think about the scenario. So I'm curious
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: to get your take on some of these. I got
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: two or three games that sort of like felt right,
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: but I was also in my head just working so
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: hard to figure out where's my bias and blind spot
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: on Favorite, So I'm going to give you a minute,
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: you'll take a look at the lines. I'm going to
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: do our read for game Time, Simon, can you name
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: the best ticketing app in the United States?
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: Again in game Time?
• 30:03
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• 30:09
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• 30:17
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• 30:22
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• 30:29
  Speaker 1: to stay there because she just moved into Manhattan. He
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: calls me around five point thirty last night and he
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: says that they all want to go to the Nets
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: game at Barclay's. They're playing the Jazz in Brooklyn. I
• 30:40
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• 31:58
  Speaker 3: Here's the good for us? Passes our passes today.
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: We didn't bet the Giants even though we like were like,
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: should we really bet or skip a game? In which
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: is a rookie quarterback who's a touchdown plus favorite.
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: Biggest favorite NFL history for first start for a rookie.
• 32:13
  Speaker 3: And he covered with no problem. We didn't bet he
• 32:15
  Speaker 3: was he looked good.
• 32:15
  Speaker 4: He didn't throw a touchdown pass covered, he still looked good.
• 32:20
  Speaker 4: That is crazy to think that's how bad Drew Lock is.
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: He throws a really good ball. Well, look, there were
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: two pick sixes. We didn't bet the Titans. Every one
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: in the betting community was taking the bait. We did
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: not take.
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: No.
• 32:31
  Speaker 3: They almost came close, man.
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: That is and shout out to bet three six five.
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: I did.
• 32:37
  Speaker 4: I bet on their site. I did a money line
• 32:40
  Speaker 4: parlay with the Colts and they paid it out early
• 32:43
  Speaker 4: and I was just so happy when the OLSNAT Titans
• 32:45
  Speaker 4: come back up and I was like, oh, the Colts
• 32:46
  Speaker 4: are going to blow this in. Anthony Richardson would eleven completions,
• 32:50
  Speaker 4: had a big, big third down throw.
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: Oh my god, so crazy. That was a crazy game. Unfortunately,
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: we just couldn't pick the right favorite.
• 33:00
  Speaker 4: Yeah, this week came down to it, right, we'd have
• 33:02
  Speaker 4: been three and one if we had picked the right one.
• 33:04
  Speaker 4: We both love Detroit, but once again the books are
• 33:07
  Speaker 4: fucking up where it's like the line was too easy.
• 33:11
  Speaker 4: It was six and a half all week and everyone
• 33:13
  Speaker 4: in their grandma was hammering that line Detroit. It was
• 33:16
  Speaker 4: ninety percent of the tickets, ninety percent of the bets.
• 33:19
  Speaker 4: It was like twenty to one the tickets to the
• 33:21
  Speaker 4: money was on Detroit.
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: What are the books doing? I don't get it. What
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: are they doing?
• 33:27
  Speaker 4: Like they're just killing me because it's throwing me off
• 33:29
  Speaker 4: or it's like that looked too good to be truly.
• 33:31
  Speaker 4: Even we talked about this morning. I was like, I said,
• 33:34
  Speaker 4: you are we the suckers taking this Detroit? Like we
• 33:36
  Speaker 4: always go against this? It felt too easy, and nope,
• 33:39
  Speaker 4: it is. It is that easy right now.
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: That Bears team is just totally dysfunctional.
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: Yeah, what we said, like that Bear's team, they they're
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: so unprepared to start the game that you really you
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: can't bet them. You know, it's just too you can't
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: because they don't have the coaching to get them ready
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: for the game and they were out of it before
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: the game started. It was over week seventeen. There were
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: three games when I was looking through the Action app
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: at the early lines for next week.
• 34:07
  Speaker 3: When I was walking up to my office after the
• 34:10
  Speaker 3: Bill's game.
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: Immediately I looked at that Atlanta game plus five on
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: the road at Washington.
• 34:21
  Speaker 3: I don't know why.
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: Maybe I'm a sucker because I felt like the Commanders
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: were terrible and Pennix was awesome. But maybe this is
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: where it's a dead number and it's not the Eagles,
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: and like maybe that's the favorite we play. I'm at
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: a loss right now. Do you have thoughts on that?
• 34:42
  Speaker 4: I don't have an opinion on it, but I feel
• 34:44
  Speaker 4: like you're probably right where that line does look fishy
• 34:47
  Speaker 4: where you know, I'm assuming I'll have this model out
• 34:50
  Speaker 4: at three three and a half because I agree with you.
• 34:52
  Speaker 4: I think he looked much better than I anticipated. And
• 34:56
  Speaker 4: this is a tough spot though rookie second start primetime
• 34:59
  Speaker 4: game in Washington, but we expect Washington coming off that
• 35:03
  Speaker 4: win to you know, sem, I have a letdown, but
• 35:06
  Speaker 4: they just survived the five turnovers.
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 35:08
  Speaker 4: I don't know how to really read that one, but
• 35:11
  Speaker 4: interesting number to open up five for the books.
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a real middleman number there, middle of the
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: ground number, middle of the road. Having a hard time
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: with it. I looked at the Rams as favorites, four
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: point favorites against Arizona. This felt like all right, like,
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: now it's.
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: Already a five.
• 35:32
  Speaker 3: It's I'm seeing Jesus Christ.
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: I missed it already, so I was clearly on the
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: right side there, like because this.
• 35:39
  Speaker 2: Is a nice spot for the Rams. Yeah, I mean Kyler.
• 35:42
  Speaker 4: I don't know if Color was crying on the bench
• 35:43
  Speaker 4: the end of that Carolina game, but they basically found
• 35:45
  Speaker 4: out that they're their season's over.
• 35:48
  Speaker 3: Yeah, they're done, and like here now.
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: La and Connor got hurt, I believe.
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and La is in the driver's seat. So that
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: looked like a good one for me. The last one
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: that I was.
• 35:57
  Speaker 4: Still don't mind it as long as it's under six.
• 35:59
  Speaker 4: We're right, there's no rush to bet now that's already
• 36:01
  Speaker 4: been hit, right.
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: The last one on my radar was Green Bay as
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: a one and a half point dog at Minnesota. I
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: think I think Minnesota is getting lucky right now, like
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: I think green Bay.
• 36:17
  Speaker 3: I look at that team. I don't know.
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: Why I think they're so good, but if I can
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: get Green Bay as a dog at any point, I
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: want to take them.
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: Interesting. Yeah, I was.
• 36:28
  Speaker 4: I was ready to jump off the green Bay train
• 36:31
  Speaker 4: because IM probably gonna d up taking them tomorrow night.
• 36:33
  Speaker 4: I know we have convinced me. So I don't wanna
• 36:34
  Speaker 4: give away too much because we're doing the show tomorrow.
• 36:36
  Speaker 4: People should check it out on YouTube. But yeah, this
• 36:40
  Speaker 4: this Packers team, they're gonna be everyone batting on, right
• 36:42
  Speaker 4: because I think people have your mindset. The vikings that
• 36:45
  Speaker 4: to me was a scheduled loss, and they still somehow
• 36:48
  Speaker 4: stole it there at the end, like Sam Darnold getting destroyed,
• 36:52
  Speaker 4: eating up throwing absolutely dimes down the sideline to Justin
• 36:56
  Speaker 4: Jefferson like that. The stat in the Ansler read that
• 36:59
  Speaker 4: there's been two or to Rex in NFL history to
• 37:01
  Speaker 4: go to a new team and win the more than
• 37:03
  Speaker 4: thirteen games in their first season in Sam Manning with
• 37:06
  Speaker 4: Denver and then Steve McNair his first year with the
• 37:09
  Speaker 4: Ravens and six it was like, oh, these shit, this
• 37:12
  Speaker 4: is truly a wacko world we're living in right now.
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: Sam Donald like, but you know what's interesting about him.
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: There's things that they're doing on offense that are brilliant.
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: There's also things that they're doing because his arm is
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: so freaking strong, Like he is throwing these outs across
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: the field from the opposite hash on a rope and
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: these are fifteen yard outs. They're not these short five
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: yard outs that so many guys throw now that they
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: can do because his arm is so good like that
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: is he's stone at fifty yards in the air for
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: fifteen yard games. It's it's pretty astonishing.
• 37:50
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, obviously Kevin O'Connell deserves because of the year.
• 37:53
  Speaker 4: What this even some of this stuff, he's probably just
• 37:56
  Speaker 4: in the back of my mind, like I never would
• 37:57
  Speaker 4: have expected this with this kid, Like.
• 38:02
  Speaker 3: You know, Kat's green or whatever.
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah, did you see when they were reading that stat
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: you just said on the air. He was walking across
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: and he was clapping and he was like almost smirking.
• 38:12
  Speaker 3: He was like, got away with that one.
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: Yeah, And it's just.
• 38:18
  Speaker 4: A whole predicament that they put the vikings in now
• 38:20
  Speaker 4: because you know, Sam Donald, this is the dream for him.
• 38:24
  Speaker 4: When he was coming out of college, we all knew
• 38:26
  Speaker 4: he had the arm talent. He was a twenty one
• 38:28
  Speaker 4: year old at the time, who were like, Okay, if
• 38:29
  Speaker 4: he gets reps, can figure it out.
• 38:31
  Speaker 2: He could be a stud in this league. And he
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: went through years.
• 38:35
  Speaker 4: Of just psychological warfare, like this guy basically got cold
• 38:39
  Speaker 4: on camera saying that he was seeing ghosts. Yeah, and
• 38:42
  Speaker 4: couldn't live it down for I don't even know what
• 38:43
  Speaker 4: was that five years, six years and his confidence level
• 38:48
  Speaker 4: right now, I mean there's only one person more confident.
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: Was saying about Sam Donald's.
• 38:52
  Speaker 4: Colin Cowherd, like those two guys are peak right now
• 38:55
  Speaker 4: because it's it's insane what we've seen from him this season.
• 38:58
  Speaker 4: Like even in my wild of streams, I could never
• 39:01
  Speaker 4: seen this season come from. So that's my fear right
• 39:03
  Speaker 4: now with this number chat is that Green Bay will
• 39:06
  Speaker 4: be the public side. And I think people have the
• 39:08
  Speaker 4: same entity view of this Vikings team keep getting caught
• 39:10
  Speaker 4: and I'm another way where I'm.
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: Like this has everything.
• 39:13
  Speaker 4: Everything about this has lined up for them to be
• 39:15
  Speaker 4: the one seed and then losing in their first round
• 39:17
  Speaker 4: or the second round whenever they play the Bucks or
• 39:20
  Speaker 4: the Eagles or somebody, because it's like you said, their
• 39:23
  Speaker 4: luck right now, and the one score games has just
• 39:25
  Speaker 4: been insane. Every one score game they somehow find a
• 39:28
  Speaker 4: way to win, whether it's overtime or you know, the
• 39:32
  Speaker 4: last minute drive by Sam Darnold and then making the
• 39:35
  Speaker 4: stop defensively, Like it's just been all clicking for this
• 39:38
  Speaker 4: Vikings team and it's it really is crazy at this point.
• 39:41
  Speaker 4: So I can't get there with you with Green Bay
• 39:43
  Speaker 4: right now, I'm a little spooked about this Vikings team.
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: I had the Seahawks plus three and a half and
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: from early nights, and I love this game for the
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: Seahawks at plus.
• 39:54
  Speaker 4: Another game, the books moved at two and a half
• 39:56
  Speaker 4: for a day and a half got slaughtered.
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly, And that's why we didn't talk about it
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: for the contest, like you didn't love it because it moved,
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: and we were both worried about Geno Smith and so
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: once it had gone off to three and a half.
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: But in the end, I'm like, oh shit, Gino's gonna
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: throw a pick six here, like an easy one. I'm
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: gonna lose this fucking bet, all right, So who are
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: you looking at?
• 40:18
  Speaker 4: I'm grabbing Cowboys right now. It's seven and a half.
• 40:21
  Speaker 4: I don't know what the deal is with Hurtz. I
• 40:23
  Speaker 4: don't know how banged up he is. If this is
• 40:25
  Speaker 4: gonna Kenny Pickett, if they're gonna be cautious year we
• 40:27
  Speaker 4: just talked about it. I don't know what the Eagles
• 40:29
  Speaker 4: are playing for at this point, Like, yes, they want
• 40:31
  Speaker 4: to win this game, but you know, we've seen time
• 40:34
  Speaker 4: and time again this rivalry. Like even when the Cowboys
• 40:37
  Speaker 4: are playing their backups, they play hard in this one.
• 40:39
  Speaker 4: So it's just really picking the number. It's seven and
• 40:41
  Speaker 4: a half me, me and Chad Hope. What happens tonight,
• 40:44
  Speaker 4: does happen where the Cowboys either went out right or
• 40:47
  Speaker 4: cover the number, This will definitely be six and a half.
• 40:51
  Speaker 4: And then if it's obviously Kenny Pickett, who knows could
• 40:54
  Speaker 4: be four and a half if it's Kenny Pickett and
• 40:56
  Speaker 4: keep dropping. So this is just a number I'm gonna
• 40:58
  Speaker 4: grab now just because it's a key number and there's
• 40:59
  Speaker 4: your so much up in the air, and I just want.
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: To emphasize, like that's what people need to do. We
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: took the Chiefs last week at two and a half,
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: not knowing what was going on with my homes and
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: it turned out to be he was playing and they
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: were been going away and we had the plus two
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: and a half from early in the week when there
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: was uncertainty.
• 41:20
  Speaker 4: Yeah, so that's just what I'm grabbing now. Again, I
• 41:24
  Speaker 4: don't want to hit these games too much just because
• 41:26
  Speaker 4: we're going through it. Ouption convince me, But yeah, in
• 41:29
  Speaker 4: a normal year, I would be hammering the Steelers on Christmas.
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: They are right now a plus two dog.
• 41:37
  Speaker 4: So that's another thing I don't know what to do
• 41:39
  Speaker 4: where it's like the simple person, the dumb guy is, well,
• 41:43
  Speaker 4: it's Mahomes under three, and you always take Mahomes under three,
• 41:47
  Speaker 4: and it's like, this guy's been money with the favorites
• 41:50
  Speaker 4: this year, so it's it's tough for me to fight
• 41:52
  Speaker 4: through that one. That's when we're going to break down
• 41:54
  Speaker 4: obviously more.
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: Well, look, here's one thing I will say, and I
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: said this, I'm convincing me this morning before we went
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: on air. What kind of world are we living in
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: where you can't even count on fading Mahomes as a
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: more than three point favorite, which you have normally been
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: able to do, when he's won two weeks in a
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: row as a more than three point favorite. And you
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: can't count on betting on Mike Tomlin as a underdog,
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: especially as a big dog in this raven Steelers rivalry,
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: and he's lost two weeks in a row as a
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: plus four and a half, plus five and a half,
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: plus six and a half dog. So now we've got
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: Rock meeting the hard place next week, where you were
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: dying to bet on Mahomes at under three.
• 42:32
  Speaker 4: Taking that's all I was about to say that I
• 42:33
  Speaker 4: took the two you did, yeah, because my whole thought
• 42:37
  Speaker 4: process is it is a Mahomes under three. And we
• 42:41
  Speaker 4: talked about that. Russell Wilson might have turned back into
• 42:43
  Speaker 4: a pumpkin because we.
• 42:44
  Speaker 3: Hasn't had George Pickens. What if he has George Pickens
• 42:46
  Speaker 3: this week.
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: That could be the difference.
• 42:49
  Speaker 4: But he has just made such poor decisions where they
• 42:52
  Speaker 4: were thriving because he was being smart protecting the ball
• 42:55
  Speaker 4: and not putting them in a bad position. And that's
• 42:58
  Speaker 4: he just put them in such a bad position. Look,
• 43:00
  Speaker 4: I still can't believe they cover that number. It just
• 43:04
  Speaker 4: totally went sideways. They're about to go up fourteen to
• 43:06
  Speaker 4: seven against the Ravens. He has that bad fumble and
• 43:08
  Speaker 4: then after that he's just chasing the rest of the game.
• 43:10
  Speaker 4: And that's that's not ever we want rust to be.
• 43:11
  Speaker 4: So again, bizarre number to hang by the books. You know,
• 43:16
  Speaker 4: another game that just jumps out of you know, just
• 43:20
  Speaker 4: a bizarre number of the books are hanging here early.
• 43:23
  Speaker 4: You can get Bengals minus three against Denver on Saturday at.
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: Home, So I saw that and I thought they were
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: what is that three? I looked at that, and I'm like,
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: I feel like they're playing us because Joe Burrow is
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: so unworldly right now, he's locked in, and so they're
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: looking They're like their defense is so bad. I feel
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: like there's a big difference between what Sean Payton will
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: do with bo Nix, who has played well against for
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: his defenses, versus what Stefanski can do with Dorian Thompson Robinson.
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: So I just felt like they were inflating that a
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: little bit more than they ship that. I felt like
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: they were trying to suck me in.
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: That's fair.
• 44:13
  Speaker 4: It was just it was just another game that jumped
• 44:14
  Speaker 4: out to me where it's like, these lines are interesting,
• 44:18
  Speaker 4: They're hanging here because you're right, gut instinct.
• 44:19
  Speaker 2: Is just to bet this. Yeah, I could see it being.
• 44:22
  Speaker 4: Three and a half in us being on Denverse. You're right,
• 44:24
  Speaker 4: I won't have to rush to this one. That was
• 44:26
  Speaker 4: definitely a favor that opened up that called my attention.
• 44:29
  Speaker 4: Here's another one we just talked about. Josh Allen might
• 44:32
  Speaker 4: be a little banged up jets or plus ten. I
• 44:33
  Speaker 4: know it's too raw right now. Oh God, I'm just
• 44:36
  Speaker 4: gonna grab it just because it is plus ten, Like
• 44:38
  Speaker 4: that's that's a huge number for a Josh Allen that
• 44:43
  Speaker 4: might be a little banged up. But like this, this
• 44:45
  Speaker 4: him having back to back bad games that I'm not
• 44:48
  Speaker 4: betting on. So that's that's issue where it's like, I'm
• 44:50
  Speaker 4: not going to force us to put this one in.
• 44:52
  Speaker 4: It's just about playing this number just in case Josh
• 44:54
  Speaker 4: Allen is banged up, if he has a brace on
• 44:56
  Speaker 4: his finger or his elbow, whatever, another team that it
• 45:01
  Speaker 4: might be all locked up for this game. The Chiefs
• 45:03
  Speaker 4: might beat Pittsburgh Chad and they might not really be
• 45:05
  Speaker 4: playing for anything at that point. So there's just another
• 45:07
  Speaker 4: number I'm gonna play like the Cowboys, just in case
• 45:09
  Speaker 4: it does move.
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: If anyone can find a way to screw it up.
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: It's Aaron Rodgers and Jeff obrah that's fair. Anyone else
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: was at it, No.
• 45:21
  Speaker 4: Because there's like favorites. I like that, Like I'm gonna
• 45:24
  Speaker 4: say it for our show. Just I'm just worried I'm
• 45:26
  Speaker 4: just suggesting too much here. But Detroit's minus three and
• 45:29
  Speaker 4: a half against the forty niners. The forty nine ers
• 45:30
  Speaker 4: look like they quit a years ago. Usually I have
• 45:32
  Speaker 4: fadom on that number, but it's just.
• 45:35
  Speaker 2: A bad line.
• 45:36
  Speaker 4: And Miami's right now is minus six against Cleveland. I
• 45:40
  Speaker 4: kind of want to take Cleveland there, but I feel
• 45:42
  Speaker 4: like I'm getting sucked in once again where it's like, no,
• 45:44
  Speaker 4: go Miami. But it's just it might be cold as
• 45:47
  Speaker 4: hell in Cleveland, and now it's two at a six
• 45:50
  Speaker 4: six point favorite on the road in cold ass Cleveland.
• 45:53
  Speaker 2: I take that number right now.
• 45:55
  Speaker 3: I looked.
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: I didn't think about Detroit because it felt like because
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: that game's in San Francisco, right, Yeah, Yeah, it felt
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: like someone's trying to fuck me on.
• 46:07
  Speaker 2: That and it always feels that way.
• 46:10
  Speaker 3: Yeah, the Miami today was six and a half.
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: Right, But that's the problem is like we're looking at
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: favorites and the book is posting these numbers knowing that
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: they're sucking us in and it doesn't matter because they
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: keep losing and we keep ignoring them and the public
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: keeps winning.
• 46:27
  Speaker 3: Like the public.
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: Favorites today were the Bills, who of course we faded,
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: uh we took, and the Bengals who covered, and the
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: third team was Detroit. I looked at Miami minus six,
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: I'm like, yeah, I'm gonna want to play Miami against Cleveland,
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: and then I'm like, well, shoot, it's to in the cold.
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: And now we're just overthinking it. So look, there's a
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: lot to unpack. I think I think the best idea
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: is take the Rams. Take Dallas plus seven and a half,
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: because we don't know what happened with her. It's like,
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: get the good number. I like your idea for Kansas
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: City minus two, but it makes me a little nervous.
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: But we'll break it down more on Tuesday at eleven
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: am Eastern Early show for Christmas Eve. As a reminder,
• 47:13
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