Latest / THE DAILY BRIEF / Hormuz, Oman deal, new defense pact & more

Transcript

Hormuz, Oman deal, new defense pact & more · THE DAILY BRIEF

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan also signing a mutual Defense pack
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: that stipulates, similar to NATO, that an attack against any
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: one of them shall be regarded as an attack against
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: them all. What do you make of some of these
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: types of moves. Let's talk about the Alliance for example,
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: what do you make of that more formalized alliance and
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: does that signal anything to you about where the Middle
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: East is headed?
• 0:28
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Omar, I think this is the result of concern
• 0:34
  Speaker 2: about the United States and whether the United States is
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: capable of responding. I think the United States has impacted
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: on its credibility and on its trust in terms of
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: whether or not the United States can provide the support
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: and the security that other countries need. And so these countries,
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: whether it's Europe, whether it's Turkey, and other countries have
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: decided to try to build coalitions that can provide for
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: their own security. I think all of that is a
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: reflection that there was a tremendous amount of concern about
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: whether the United States can really provide the support system
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: and the security that it used to provide in the past.
• 1:16
  Speaker 3: What do you think of this request for ideas, this
• 1:20
  Speaker 3: crowd sourcing notions for how to deal with Iran.
• 1:26
  Speaker 4: Well, I think it's a good idea. Now, CNN wasn't clear.
• 1:30
  Speaker 4: It's said in the headline they were requesting it of troops,
• 1:34
  Speaker 4: in the write up that says you're requesting it of analysts.
• 1:37
  Speaker 4: I can assure you that they didn't send me a note,
• 1:41
  Speaker 4: so I suspect they're trying to keep that internal to
• 1:43
  Speaker 4: the uniform military. Look, I was a send Coom planner
• 1:46
  Speaker 4: many many years ago. I was a planner many many
• 1:50
  Speaker 4: years ago, and we were always reaching out the different
• 1:54
  Speaker 4: intelligence agencies and other organizations to develop branches and sequels.
• 2:00
  Speaker 4: Not a sign of failure. It just is a sign that,
• 2:04
  Speaker 4: as we say, no plan survives first contact with the enemy.
• 2:08
  Speaker 4: So after you've been fighting the campaign for a while,
• 2:11
  Speaker 4: it's good for you to think about, now that we
• 2:14
  Speaker 4: know where we are, beyond what the plan said, how
• 2:18
  Speaker 4: do we take it forward. So I think it's refreshing
• 2:20
  Speaker 4: that Admiral Cooper is doing this. I think there are
• 2:23
  Speaker 4: many that suggest that this is a sign of failure.
• 2:28
  Speaker 4: I wouldn't consider it that at all. I think it's
• 2:30
  Speaker 4: a pretty good idea as a matter of fact.
• 2:32
  Speaker 3: So where do you think things stand? Today with Iran.
• 2:36
  Speaker 3: The President said he was calling off a planned bombing campaign.
• 2:40
  Speaker 3: He said there could be talks as soon as today.
• 2:42
  Speaker 3: The Iranians, they're not saying that there's any talks going on,
• 2:45
  Speaker 3: But if there are talks, do you think that I
• 2:48
  Speaker 3: don't know if this is the fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh,
• 2:50
  Speaker 3: or eight time, but do you think this will be
• 2:52
  Speaker 3: the charm?
• 2:56
  Speaker 4: Look, we've got a lot of diplomacy left in this
• 2:59
  Speaker 4: entire camp pain. I'm glad to see the President mentioned
• 3:03
  Speaker 4: nuclear capabilities because too many people are getting distracted by
• 3:08
  Speaker 4: the issue with the strait of Hoort moves. That is important,
• 3:10
  Speaker 4: no doubt, But the core elements of the plan and
• 3:14
  Speaker 4: the reason we went to military conflict, is to end
• 3:19
  Speaker 4: their nuclear program, push back their missile program, and cut
• 3:24
  Speaker 4: their links with proxies. And I fear that if we
• 3:27
  Speaker 4: focus too much on the straight of hor moves, we're
• 3:30
  Speaker 4: going to allow the Iranians to divert the entire campaign
• 3:35
  Speaker 4: from the core principles.
• 3:38
  Speaker 3: The Memorandum of Understanding, which is no longer in effect.
• 3:42
  Speaker 3: To what extent did that address your concerns about the
• 3:45
  Speaker 3: Iran nuclear program? If the United States gets back to
• 3:48
  Speaker 3: the memorandum and understanding.
• 3:50
  Speaker 5: Is that enough?
• 3:54
  Speaker 4: It's a start. You remember, the memorandum of understanding was
• 3:58
  Speaker 4: an agreement to start discussions. It was in many ways
• 4:03
  Speaker 4: meant to be a confidence building measure between the two
• 4:06
  Speaker 4: sides to see if we could get to the real diplomacy,
• 4:09
  Speaker 4: which were those three points that I mentioned. It obviously
• 4:13
  Speaker 4: didn't work. If we get back to a working memorandum
• 4:17
  Speaker 4: understanding that allows us to get back to negotiations on
• 4:21
  Speaker 4: the key principles, that'll be a good thing. I don't
• 4:24
  Speaker 4: think it's going to happen. I think we've got a
• 4:26
  Speaker 4: lot of war fighting enough to do. And that goes
• 4:30
  Speaker 4: back to what Admiral Cooper is trying to do. Figure
• 4:33
  Speaker 4: out some other ways in branches and sequels.
• 4:36
  Speaker 5: Right now appears Iran is not talking directly with the US.
• 4:40
  Speaker 5: What can truly be accomplished without direct talks.
• 4:43
  Speaker 6: Well, let's go back to the MOLU that was signed
• 4:45
  Speaker 6: back in June, and I don't have the exact language
• 4:48
  Speaker 6: in front of me, but it told Iroan to work
• 4:50
  Speaker 6: with Oman to develop a mechanism for managing navigation in
• 4:54
  Speaker 6: the Strait that would be consistent with international law and
• 4:58
  Speaker 6: the sovereign rights of the coastal state. So the MoU
• 5:01
  Speaker 6: does tell Iran to work through Aman on this or
• 5:05
  Speaker 6: work through this with Oman. I would expect then as
• 5:08
  Speaker 6: it becomes public, both regional allies will have an opinion,
• 5:13
  Speaker 6: and as I understand, they're generally favorable of whatever it
• 5:16
  Speaker 6: is that it says, and the US will have an
• 5:19
  Speaker 6: opinion as well. But at this point I'm not shocked
• 5:22
  Speaker 6: that Iran is working through the mechanism with Oman. Solely,
• 5:26
  Speaker 6: I think we need to see what it says, what
• 5:28
  Speaker 6: the provisions are that are within that agreement.
• 5:31
  Speaker 5: Okay, Meanwhile, there's threats going back and forth. Right now,
• 5:36
  Speaker 5: what do you believe Iran feels about this last chance threat?
• 5:42
  Speaker 6: So I think in some I'm not going to say,
• 5:44
  Speaker 6: they feel that they called the president's bluff, but the
• 5:46
  Speaker 6: president backed off. I think it for a variety of reasons,
• 5:50
  Speaker 6: one of them probably being that key allies in the Gulf,
• 5:54
  Speaker 6: particularly the Saudis, convinced him that it was time to
• 5:58
  Speaker 6: prioritize diplomatic efforts as opposed to additional military action. Even
• 6:03
  Speaker 6: though US Central Command has done a lot to destroy
• 6:06
  Speaker 6: Iranian naval capability, they haven't eliminated the threat in the
• 6:10
  Speaker 6: Strait of the Hormus, nor can they, And there's no
• 6:14
  Speaker 6: indication that they've moved the needle on Iran's strategic calculus,
• 6:17
  Speaker 6: so you know, there might be some question on the
• 6:20
  Speaker 6: efficacy of those strikes. The other thing I'd say is
• 6:23
  Speaker 6: Iran's activities of the last two weeks demonstrating that their
• 6:27
  Speaker 6: range and ability to hold regional energy infrastructure at risk
• 6:32
  Speaker 6: goes far beyond the Straits of Hormus, whether it's the
• 6:35
  Speaker 6: Huthies down at the Bablo Mandeb, attacks against ports in
• 6:38
  Speaker 6: the Red Sea, or even as far as Egypt. I
• 6:41
  Speaker 6: think our Gulf allies convinced the President that this is
• 6:46
  Speaker 6: not the time to try a very large military campaign
• 6:51
  Speaker 6: against Iran, and that again to prioritize those diplomatic efforts.
• 6:55
  Speaker 5: Okay, we also have Secretary of Rubio, who'say in US
• 6:59
  Speaker 5: was involved the negotiations between Iran and Oman. On the straight,
• 7:03
  Speaker 5: Iran has set its goal and talks with them on
• 7:05
  Speaker 5: is to set temporary arrangements lasting one to three months,
• 7:10
  Speaker 5: where and here's the quote, where Iran is dominant. Would
• 7:14
  Speaker 5: the US agree to that? Do they have a vote
• 7:17
  Speaker 5: or even a choice at this point?
• 7:19
  Speaker 6: Those are great questions I think, you know, we need
• 7:22
  Speaker 6: to see what it looks like. I think two things
• 7:26
  Speaker 6: that three things maybe that we'll look at. One is
• 7:29
  Speaker 6: what kind of fee structure, if any is there. Is
• 7:32
  Speaker 6: there some voluntary fee as the initial reporting said, that
• 7:36
  Speaker 6: would help pay for search and rescue, for the cost
• 7:38
  Speaker 6: of administering navigation, for environmental damage or is it a
• 7:41
  Speaker 6: flat out toll. I think that's definitely something that not
• 7:44
  Speaker 6: just the US but the rest of the world would oppose.
• 7:47
  Speaker 6: And then what kind of coordination will occur between Iran
• 7:52
  Speaker 6: and Oman in terms of the channels that they manage.
• 7:55
  Speaker 6: Perhaps that's where Iran seeks.
• 7:56
  Speaker 7: To be dominant.
• 7:57
  Speaker 6: And then third, what will be done interns of d
• 8:00
  Speaker 6: mining and making the channels safe for RANEE for commercial
• 8:05
  Speaker 6: traffic again in the strait of hormones.
• 8:07
  Speaker 8: The Center for Strategic to International Studies has done an
• 8:10
  Speaker 8: analysis of this. We are also hearing from our own
• 8:14
  Speaker 8: sources saying that these stockpiles, especially of things like Patriot missiles,
• 8:18
  Speaker 8: have been depleted in that case for the Patriots by
• 8:21
  Speaker 8: two thirds. So when the President says it makes America
• 8:25
  Speaker 8: look weak and he's frustrated with it, how big of
• 8:28
  Speaker 8: a problem is this in your estimation.
• 8:32
  Speaker 9: Yeah, good morning, Sarah. It is a big problem. I mean,
• 8:35
  Speaker 9: when you look at the figures, it's you know, to
• 8:37
  Speaker 9: deplete two thirds of our patriot resources for a conflict
• 8:43
  Speaker 9: with Iran when there are other conflicts going on, including Ukraine,
• 8:47
  Speaker 9: that becomes a big issue. And we also have to
• 8:49
  Speaker 9: keep in mind we might end up having to defend
• 8:53
  Speaker 9: a country like Taiwan in the face of Chinese aggression
• 8:56
  Speaker 9: potential Chinese aggression. So these are the kinds of things
• 8:59
  Speaker 9: that you know, should keep military planners up at night,
• 9:02
  Speaker 9: and they certainly seem to be keeping up the President
• 9:04
  Speaker 9: at night. And when you look at all the different
• 9:07
  Speaker 9: things that are going on in terms of the need
• 9:11
  Speaker 9: for these kinds of munitions, it really shows the need
• 9:15
  Speaker 9: to revamp the defense industrial base, and that, of course
• 9:18
  Speaker 9: is a very serious issue. The President and the Department
• 9:22
  Speaker 9: of Defense have started to work on that. The President
• 9:26
  Speaker 9: invoked the Defense Production Act this past month, and that's
• 9:30
  Speaker 9: certainly a start in fixing things. But in addition to
• 9:34
  Speaker 9: fixing these areas, what they also need to do is
• 9:37
  Speaker 9: develop more innovative weapons that are the cost effect. That
• 9:40
  Speaker 9: they're starting to do that, and that is one of
• 9:42
  Speaker 9: the things that of course should be part of the
• 9:45
  Speaker 9: Defense Department's agenda at this point.
• 9:48
  Speaker 8: Beth, I am curious. We've talked about this before, that
• 9:52
  Speaker 8: sort of Iran has this new tool to needle countries
• 9:55
  Speaker 8: that it finds to be hostile towards it, And that's
• 9:58
  Speaker 8: a straight up form moves. It used to be the
• 10:00
  Speaker 8: nuclear program. Now the Strait has become sort of its
• 10:05
  Speaker 8: favorite child. When you look at what they are doing
• 10:08
  Speaker 8: now by kind of bypassing talks with the United States
• 10:11
  Speaker 8: and going to Aman and making these demands. What does
• 10:14
  Speaker 8: this all mean for where we are in this war
• 10:18
  Speaker 8: and how long this could go on, and what this
• 10:21
  Speaker 8: is going to mean, for example, to the world's economy.
• 10:27
  Speaker 7: Right, I mean, there's a lot there, and I think
• 10:31
  Speaker 7: that you know, the big picture here is that Iran
• 10:35
  Speaker 7: is very emboldened right now. They're in a different place
• 10:38
  Speaker 7: strategically with the IRGC in control, as we have said
• 10:43
  Speaker 7: for many, many months, and they're really playing hardball. I mean,
• 10:46
  Speaker 7: after we bomb them for thirteen days straight, they turned
• 10:50
  Speaker 7: around after we ended that, they preemptively surprised the President
• 10:55
  Speaker 7: by sending ballistic missiles into our troops in Jordan, and
• 11:00
  Speaker 7: you know, so they are not going to be willing
• 11:04
  Speaker 7: to give up this option, and what they're doing right
• 11:08
  Speaker 7: now with this bilateral negotiation with Oman is definitely trying
• 11:13
  Speaker 7: to set up a permanent structure where they will control
• 11:17
  Speaker 7: the strait and what traffic goes into the strait. And
• 11:21
  Speaker 7: that means if an empty tanker wants to go in
• 11:24
  Speaker 7: and fill up oil from Kuwait or buy rain or whatever,
• 11:30
  Speaker 7: they could stop that from happening. And so you know,
• 11:33
  Speaker 7: over the long term, this would change not just the
• 11:37
  Speaker 7: structure of the Middle East and kind of who can
• 11:40
  Speaker 7: wield power there. Iran wants to do this to protect themselves,
• 11:44
  Speaker 7: but we have to think about all the other maritime
• 11:47
  Speaker 7: choke points in the world, and this could set a
• 11:51
  Speaker 7: cascading effect of other areas where countries say, hey, you know,
• 11:56
  Speaker 7: we want to exert more control. And so I think
• 11:59
  Speaker 7: it puts the United States and a huge bind