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Inside The Data: Examining Eagles WR A.J. Brown's Curious Route Tree Vs Chiefs · Inside the Birds: A Philadelphia Eagles Podcast

0:09
Speaker 1: Hello, everyone, Welcome to Inside the Data on Inside the Birds.
0:12
Of course, I'm Jeff Mosher and when we do data
0:15
we talk with Sam Finkel, our data and analytics expert,
0:18
and Sam is here. He's got the charts ready to
0:21
go and all of the analytical data from week two's
0:26
Eagles win over the Chiefs twenty to seventeen out and Arrowhead.
0:31
And you know, at one point that was a ten
0:32
point game and cruise and then all all of a
0:35
sudden you're looking up, but it's twenty seventeen and it's
0:38
a game. But that's that's to be expected. Sam. When
0:40
whenever the Chiefs, when you go out to the Arrowhead and
0:43
play the Chiefs, it's always a close.
0:44
Speaker 2: One, absolutely. I mean, anytime you have Patrick Mahomes on
0:48
the other side, you never know, never can feel too safe.
0:50
I mean even during the Super Bowl with the hugely
0:53
it still didn't one hundred percent feel safe until it did.
0:56
Speaker 1: I know a lot of people who felt that way.
0:58
All right, So let's go deep in side the analytics.
1:01
You've put a lot of good charts together, and I
1:03
know a lot of people want to see from an
1:05
analytical standpoint if there's anything that the data shows about
1:10
the pass offense that they can give them some clues
1:13
as to why it's not good. We'll cover everything as
1:16
we always do, so without further ado, I'll just bring
1:20
out the charts and we'll start to get right to
1:23
it with as we always do, we start with sort
1:26
of the basic look.
1:27
Speaker 2: So if you look, the first thing that kind of
1:30
comes to my mind is the Eagles are losing in
1:32
a lot of the categories that you know I chose
1:36
for this. They won and score, which is obviously a
1:40
really big one. They warn the turnover battle, and they
1:42
won the time of possession. And I've stressed this a
1:46
lot at the beginning of the season just because I
1:49
think that's what this team is. They're not going to
1:51
turn the ball over and they're going to hold the ball.
1:53
I mean, those are that's a winning formula. That's the
1:56
winning formula of this team. I mean, as long as
1:58
they win the turnover battle and the time possession, they
2:01
seem to put themselves in the best position to win
2:03
the games.
2:04
Speaker 1: YEP. I recall writing a story or maybe doing a
2:08
pod last year Sam with Adam where we talked about
2:11
a couple of different games that the Eagles won last
2:13
year where they were out gained yardage and are also
2:17
out averaged yards per play. And this is a pretty
2:20
by the way, three point seven to five point two
2:22
is pretty stark for an NFL game. But in those
2:26
games last year, the Eagles had produced more takeaways and
2:29
had a higher time of possession.
2:32
Speaker 2: Yeah, and a lot of it is they can also
2:34
rely on the defense a lot more than they had
2:36
in the past. They're they're very much they can you know,
2:40
it's that cliche ben don't break. They make these plays
2:44
that limit drives that you can gain on them. You
2:46
can get yards, but they're not converting into scoring opportunities.
2:50
And when they are, the Eagles seem to be able
2:52
to match. And it's a very distinct type of football
2:55
that the Eagles are playing, and they have the talent
2:59
where I feel like they can take advantage of this
3:01
kind of it's there, it's their process. It seems like
3:05
that is how they want to win games. Is how
3:06
they've been winning games.
3:07
Speaker 1: Oh sure, I mean, you know, if you if you
3:11
shoot them all up with true serum. They don't want
3:13
Travis Kelcey to have an opportunity to catch a touchdown
3:16
that would give them the lead in that spot and
3:18
they can't guarantee that he's going to take his head
3:21
off the ball and it's going to pop up and
3:22
land into Macouba's hands. But that's a micro look, right,
3:26
A macro look is twice their opponent has had the
3:29
opportunity to go in and score on them, and I
3:31
think go ahead. I believe the mile if Miles Sanders,
3:35
you know, after his his fumble, would have been a
3:37
go ahead score. I can't even remember at the point,
3:39
but the bottom line is he fumbled in the red zone.
3:42
That's two takeaways Eagles have in the red zone, which
3:45
are just so vital.
3:47
Speaker 2: Yeah, but you also can't rely on takeaways in you know,
3:50
in the red zone every time, so they're going to
3:53
have to figure some other stuff out. One thing that
3:56
I am impressed with that they can rely on a
3:58
little bit more is the discipline. You saw it a
4:00
little bit more this week. I mean the penalties. They
4:03
both had six penalties. I mean, it's a stark contrast
4:06
of what we saw last week. And because of that,
4:09
I feel like you can rely on. See, the big
4:12
thing is what can you replicate game to game?
4:15
Speaker 1: Right?
4:15
Speaker 2: You can't necessarily replicate these turnovers in the red zone
4:18
game to game. But if you're disciplined and try to
4:21
keep the refs out of the game and you can
4:22
hold the ball and don't turn it over, that's what
4:25
the process and that's what you can replicate as the Eagles, Right.
4:28
Speaker 1: And as you know, of those forty eight penalty yards,
4:32
ten were charged on a holding to Cam Jurgons. That
4:35
wasn't really Cam Jurgens's fault because Hertz had held onto
4:39
the ball and then ran up the middle in a
4:41
way that Jurgens was not expecting at the time because
4:44
they had a bit about five or six seconds of
4:46
blocking there, and so that wasn't a lack of discipline.
4:49
That was just an unfortunate you know, sort of like
4:52
the legal man downfields can sometimes not always be on
4:55
on the person who's getting flagged, but somebody else. But yeah,
4:59
I think that's right.
5:00
Speaker 2: Thank you for bringing that up.
5:01
Speaker 1: Sure, sure, let's take a look at some advanced stats
5:05
and what really jumps out to you as you go
5:07
deeper inside the data.
5:08
Speaker 2: Yeah, So basically, there's a new column here. If you
5:12
followed last week, there's a new column here. For the
5:13
rest of the season, there's going to be a new
5:15
column and that's the Eagles on the season, and obviously
5:18
that will become better informed as the season goes on
5:22
and sample size increases, you'll get a better indication of
5:24
what the Eagles actually are on an advanced standpoint, but
5:28
still interesting to compare. You know that aggregate number two
5:32
the week to week numbers, right, So that being said,
5:35
I mean, let's let's first off focus on just the
5:40
columns on the two right ones, which is the Week
5:44
two and the Chiefs one. So if you look at that,
5:47
I mean, the Eagles win in EPA per play, EPA
5:51
per pass, and EPA per rush, that's great. But you
5:54
look at this EPA per play and the EPA per
5:56
pass and they're both negative numbers. That's not great and
5:59
not sustain And they were not negative numbers against the
6:02
Cowboys last week, and they were not negative numbers on
6:06
the season except for EPA per pass. And I think
6:09
that's really indicative of what everybody is upset about, is
6:11
that the pass game really just hasn't been, you know,
6:14
it hasn't been what it could be, what what should
6:17
be based on the talent out there and opportunities as well.
6:23
So I think that's really worth mentioning just at the start.
6:25
Speaker 1: Real quick if you have it in front of you.
6:27
If not, it's okay, or if you can sort of.
6:30
I'm just wondering where they're two week EPA per pass
6:33
of minus point one three kind of compares to the league.
6:39
Speaker 2: Comparison the league, I can get that really quickly.
6:42
Speaker 1: All right. I shouldn't have thrown that on you in
6:43
the middle of a pod, but it was just cure,
6:45
you're okay because it's green here, because that's that's better
6:49
than what they did in week two. Their overall for
6:51
two weeks, it's better because of the Cowboys game, but
6:54
overall it is still a minus number, as you just
6:56
pointed out, which is not great.
6:59
Speaker 2: So is there a team in particular or did you
7:01
want to.
7:02
Speaker 1: No, I was just wondering, like, I don't know if
7:03
they have like the top the EPAS ranked from one
7:06
to thirty two after two weeks, So.
7:08
Speaker 2: They do, and the team that leads it. Actually, I
7:11
think you would very much surprise you.
7:14
Speaker 1: Really Yeah, now I want to guess. Oh yeah, go ahead,
7:18
I heard you say. You said you said the Colts, okay,
7:21
but but.
7:22
Speaker 2: Could you get could you get two and three? That's
7:24
that's the next thing, because those also are a little
7:26
bit surprising.
7:27
Speaker 1: I would say, just well, I mean, I feel like
7:30
the Cowboys against the Giants game might have heavily weighted,
7:34
and they had a pretty good first two drives against
7:36
the Eagles. So are the Cowboys up there?
7:37
Speaker 2: Cowboys are eleventh?
7:39
Speaker 1: Wow? Okay, by the way, how about the Chargers.
7:43
Speaker 2: The Chargers are number two?
7:44
Speaker 1: Okay, got that one. And then you said the third
7:48
team would surprise me.
7:49
Speaker 2: Also, yeah, I would think it would surprise you to
7:52
some extent for sure.
7:54
Speaker 1: I mean, the Rams seem to be pretty efficient. They had.
7:57
Speaker 2: Rams are nine, okay at plus point one two.
8:03
Speaker 1: Buffalo.
8:04
Speaker 2: Buffalo is six at plus point one seven.
8:08
Speaker 1: Oh, how about the Packers.
8:10
Speaker 2: That's a great guess. They're five? Ah too, eight.
8:13
Speaker 1: How about this is a weird one. No, it wouldn't
8:17
be the Bengals never mind.
8:18
Speaker 2: Yeah, the Bengals are nineteenth at minus zero points zer.
8:21
Just so you know, the divide comes in from fourteen
8:25
to fifteen. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are plus zero point
8:28
zero one, and then the Jacksonville Jaguars are the first
8:31
negative team at negative zero point zero two.
8:34
Speaker 1: Interesting. I guess the Ravens would be my only guess.
8:36
And if it's not, the.
8:37
Speaker 2: Ravens are not the weird one, right because they may
8:39
expect that's four. It's the Detroit Lions.
8:42
Speaker 1: Oh of coursel. Yeah, you put fifty two up way nice? Alright,
8:48
So again I'm sorry, where did the Eagles rank? Yeah?
8:51
Speaker 2: So the Eagles are number twenty two, all.
8:56
Speaker 1: Right, twenty two in EPA per pass.
8:58
Speaker 2: All right, and actually the Vikings are last.
9:01
Speaker 1: Yeah, that doesn't surprise me at all. All right, what
9:05
else saw from these advanced stats? Really kind of well,
9:11
jump out to you, go ahead.
9:12
Speaker 2: Glad you asked. I'm very excited I introduced something for
9:14
the first time here. So I have been a big
9:20
I have not been a big supporter of time to throw,
9:22
and I've been like, I like, it's it's a vacuum stat.
9:25
So I made a stat that I think is going
9:27
to explain it pretty well.
9:29
Speaker 1: Is that the NTBPI stat?
9:31
Speaker 2: Yes? Okay, So basically I took the time to throw
9:35
and the time to pressure. Okay, So these are two stats, right,
9:38
So the important part about them. Time to throw shows
9:42
how long a quarterback holds the ball until it's thrown
9:44
on average, and time to pressure is how long until
9:47
the quarterback gets pressure. So I mean, I think an
9:50
obvious thing to do is subtract the two, right, So
9:53
that's net time before pressure got it. So basically here's
9:58
where we can get the stat actually means something, And
10:01
I think it does mean something here, right, because a
10:03
time to pressure is an indication of your offensive line,
10:05
just that it's in a vacuum, that's.
10:07
Speaker 1: What it's an indication of, or your quarterback holding the
10:09
ball well. Time to throw is oh yeah, yeah, you're right,
10:13
you're right, okay.
10:14
Speaker 2: So I think essentially what that does is it tries
10:17
to combine the two of them. Now, it's gonna be
10:21
probably negative numbers for quarterbacks that can move well in
10:24
the pocket, right, because they even if they are pressured,
10:28
they're still going to try to move around the pocket
10:30
and still make throws. That's just so I think this
10:33
is a very bad example for this week because you know,
10:37
Patrick Mahomes, that's what he does, that's his signature thing,
10:41
and Hurts does a pretty good job of it too.
10:44
But I think what it does is it shows that
10:47
like an offensive line itself, and again, like anything over
10:51
probably like two point six is pretty good. Two point
10:54
seven really good. Two point eight is pretty elite, just
10:57
just a heads up. So that's all that they were
10:59
on the season. Two point five is, like I said,
11:01
pretty good. That's what they were against the Chiefs, who
11:03
have a pretty decent defensive line. There's parts of that
11:07
defensive line that really we know of. Yeah, but the
11:11
Chiefs offensive line at two point one two is not
11:13
very good, and it shows some promise to the Eagles
11:16
defensive line and or that the Chiefs offensive line has
11:21
some issues too.
11:21
Speaker 1: Both Although the Eagles did blitz at about a thirty
11:25
percent rate in this game, which is very high for them,
11:28
so you know that either speaks to I guess that
11:34
that takes the criticism a little bit off the Chiefs
11:36
offensive line, sure, because sometimes you send more blockers and
11:39
then they can pick up. But in general, the Eagles
11:42
did get good pressure. And I did think that there
11:44
were some struggles on the left side, not only the
11:46
left side, but there were a couple of blitzes that
11:49
Vic ran where Humphrey they were designed to almost make
11:53
Humphrey blocking nobody while two guys had a block three.
11:57
So that goes to that point, but go ahead.
11:59
Speaker 2: Absolutely, And so what this stat does is we're going
12:02
to put context into it, right, But the closer you
12:05
are to zero, it's probably the better, especially even if
12:08
you're on the plus side. Right, if your time to
12:10
throw is faster than your time your pressure, that's a
12:12
pretty good indication of a nice flowing offense.
12:16
Speaker 1: Definitely.
12:17
Speaker 2: So I just think that this kind of contextualizes it
12:19
better because I like the stat, right, I hate how
12:22
it's used, and so I think in this context, hopefully
12:27
this will be a little experimental in the year, we'll
12:29
see if it actually indicates you know something for the team.
12:33
But that's just something to keep an eye on. New stat,
12:35
just created it, let's have some fun with it.
12:38
Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, So quarterback pressure is by the way, I
12:41
think that's really creative of you and a good idea
12:43
to contextualize because a lot of people's issues with just analytics,
12:49
and we have been you and I have talked about
12:51
this like openly. It's not like we haid it is
12:53
that they only tell somewhat of a story. So at
12:56
least you're trying to take a stat that can be
12:59
very very very misleading and try to make it better
13:02
with more contact. So that's good.
13:05
Speaker 2: I'm happy to keep doing stuff like that for sure.
13:08
Speaker 1: So QBP is quarterback pressure percentage, which means how much
13:13
the team's quarterback was under duress. Correct, this is an
13:15
offensive stat.
13:16
Speaker 2: It is an offensive stat. And conversely, if you look
13:19
at the Eagles opponent, it would be a defensive stat.
13:22
Right in that right column. The Eagles pressured Homes at least,
13:26
in this instance, twenty eight point nine percent of the time.
13:29
Speaker 1: Yes, And the Chiefs pressured Hurts thirty nine point point
13:34
seven times.
13:35
Speaker 2: And they on between the two games, it's thirty nine
13:40
point seven.
13:40
Speaker 1: Oh, that's right. I was looking at the two game totally.
13:43
You're right, thirty six percent against the Chiefs, which is
13:46
a pretty high number. A little lower that just I mean,
13:49
they were blitzing the crap out of him, So it
13:51
doesn't surprise me that that he was, you know, pressured
13:53
on thirty six percent of his dropbacks.
13:55
Speaker 2: They ran some interesting blitzes and well, I have some
14:00
thoughts I want to talk about later about them. Surely
14:03
definitely will be interesting conversations, for sure. And sack percentage, yep,
14:09
same idea.
14:11
Speaker 1: So Joe and Hurst was sacked on one of every
14:15
eight point well, on eight point three percent of his
14:18
drops is what sure got it? Yeah, all right, and
14:21
his number has been typically high the last few years
14:23
because he will hold on take some sacks, but not
14:26
turn the ball over absolutely, all right. Average separation a big,
14:33
big difference, by the way.
14:35
Speaker 2: Yeah, I wish there was a metric for just separation
14:39
in general, but it's always when targeted, right, So I
14:43
think that's an important context contextual point, just point out
14:46
right now.
14:47
Speaker 1: Sure, and the Eagle's pretty close in week two as
14:50
they're two week total at four point two Chiefs walow. Yeah,
14:56
so that was out right. I mean there were only
14:58
there was a lot of short pass, short targets. There
15:01
were some runs and then once or twice and Homes
15:04
was able to beat the Eagles over the top. One
15:06
was a blown coverage.
15:07
Speaker 2: Yeah, which we'll talk about that one too in a
15:09
little bit. Sure, but yeah, definitely.
15:14
Speaker 1: Any concern on your well when you were any surprise
15:17
to see that the Eagles were stuffed at an almost
15:21
eighteen percent clip against the Chiefs.
15:23
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean that is not ideal. But again, a
15:26
big part of their game plan was the bottle saquon
15:29
up right, and they did a good job in the
15:32
Super Bowl. They did a good job here at bottling
15:36
Saquan up. Their their defensive scheme changed a little bit
15:40
from the Super Bowl, as you would expect, and it
15:43
did a better job at limiting the total offense production.
15:48
But at the same time, I mean, their main focus
15:50
was to stop Saquon.
15:51
Speaker 1: Right, And what a disparity is Saquon faced a stack
15:55
box or a running back. For the Eagles face a
15:57
stack box at twenty nine clip as opposed to the Chiefs,
16:01
who faced it at a four percent clip because the
16:04
Eagles just didn't care about the Chiefs running game.
16:06
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I think that's that.
16:12
Speaker 1: And then so conversely, the Eagles saw a light boxes
16:14
twenty three percent of time, the chief saw light boxes
16:16
sixty five percent of the time. Now how come these
16:19
two don't equal for people who want to understand, Yeah,
16:24
is what's the what's the box that isn't stacked or light?
16:28
Speaker 2: So the distinction is eight or more is stacked and
16:32
six or less is not as light, gotcha? So I
16:36
mean you find that little in between room and that's
16:39
when you're not gonna that's the other percent of it.
16:42
Speaker 1: So right, Hey, you know that one guy in the
16:45
group chat who hit a five leg parlay a week
16:47
one and he wouldn't shut up about it for the
16:49
rest of the season. Sounds like kaplan, right, Yeah, yeah,
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or in the show notes and support the show. Now,
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this the reason why this is it's a good step,
19:18
but it's also this is the one where I want
19:20
to give the context. You know, the way running games
19:24
are designed or a lot not every run, but many
19:28
are to use either motion or to use pulling guards
19:33
or trapping tackles to create a numerical advantage even against
19:37
the stack box. And or like say an RPO where
19:41
you let an edge defender crash, you're not worried about
19:44
that edge defender, so you're taking one out of the
19:47
box right away by having your blocking design just leave
19:50
that guy open so that you can put five guys
19:52
on four or the other on the other side of
19:55
the line of scrimmage. Yep.
19:57
Speaker 2: And assuming you make the read correctly, I mean, you're right,
20:00
guys effectively taken out of the play.
20:02
Speaker 1: Right unless it's some sort of amazing athlete, and there
20:05
are a few who can just still chase down the
20:07
ball carrier, But that doesn't change the fact that the
20:10
blocking scheme itself is a numerical advantage for the offense,
20:13
even though the box might be a numerical disadvantage, if
20:17
that makes sense. Yeah, I mean that touchdown was good.
20:22
Speaker 2: Sorry, I didn't mean to interrupt you. No, But at
20:24
Penn State we always taught our RPOs. We had like
20:27
a hard this is like, if it's a gray read,
20:29
you're gonna like aggressive pull mentality. And the read was
20:33
eyes athlete demeanor in that order, So where were their
20:36
eyes looking? Is it a plus athlete, is it a
20:38
negative athlete? And what is their body language? Show that.
20:41
That was how we taught that read. Just for additional context.
20:45
Speaker 1: That's good. That's good intact or like insight from behind
20:48
the scenes there.
20:48
Speaker 2: I like that absolutely.
20:49
Speaker 1: Yeah. I was in the Saquon Barkley touchdown run was
20:52
a perfect example. I believe the Chiefs had seven, no, eight,
20:55
maybe eight, but Kylon grants in motion from right to left,
21:00
and his motion drew the linebacker and the edge that
21:05
it had them shift toward him, and then they ran
21:09
toward the side that Grantson vacated. So they basically set
21:13
got two guys out of the box and ran toward
21:15
that side and had a five on four blocking advantage.
21:19
Speaker 2: Yeah. Absolutely, All right, let's.
21:21
Speaker 1: Talk about the star of your stat sheet. And a
21:24
big old picture. I was about to stay cute, but
21:27
that is not good for He's just smiling if you
21:32
can if for those watching on YouTube, you see Lane
21:35
Johnson would like the most cheesy smile, right. I mean
21:38
you see all the teeth and everything that you put
21:41
up here, and he's smiling. So Lane Johnson is very happy.
21:44
Why is he the star of your statuet?
21:46
Speaker 2: Well, he actually like their NFL Proe and NFL Next
21:50
ten stats have these insights right, and their big insight
21:54
was that he was the only Eagles offensive lineman that
21:57
allowed zero pressures and every other linemand I went back
22:01
and I watched the film. I don't think it's fair
22:04
to put Jurgons attribute him with the pressure that the
22:07
Chiefs blitzed like they had this cover zero blitz in
22:11
third down. Sometime later in the game, they brought seven
22:15
guys and Jargons was blocking a guy and two guys
22:19
were unblocked. One of them Barkley was supposed to pick
22:22
up the other one. There was just no one to
22:24
pick up, right, and they attributed a pressure on Jurgons.
22:28
PFF did not attribute that pressure. I tend to agree
22:32
with PFF on that I'm just putting that out there. Still.
22:36
I think that you know, Johnson had such a great game, right,
22:39
he had zero pressures allowed on across twenty five pass
22:43
blocking snaps in Week two. I think it's interesting he
22:46
matched up against surprisingly Chris Jones a couple of times,
22:49
but like most of his I guess surprisingly was mostly Carlaftis,
22:53
which I used to expect because that's where he is.
22:55
Speaker 1: Yea.
22:56
Speaker 2: But forty percent of the time and over his career
22:58
he's allowed only one pressure. Karloft this at two point
23:01
four percent.
23:02
Speaker 1: Oh, he owns, mister Karloft. This nice.
23:04
Speaker 2: Not just him, I mean, obviously, Lane Johnson has had
23:07
such a great career in Philadelphia. But one of the
23:10
things that's really impressive is this season he's only allowed
23:14
two pressures and both of those pressures came around four
23:17
point one five seconds on average. So he's just dominating
23:21
this year. And again that magic number. Why is he
23:25
the star of the statuteet because there are no stats
23:27
to report on it.
23:29
Speaker 1: That's for the may sure of being an offensive lineman.
23:31
Don't talk about you. You had a great game exactly,
23:35
and here you are mentioning the entire offensive line. So
23:39
good you did not give Cam Jergens a pressure. Johnson
23:41
didn't get a pressure, Mylatta gave up one, tyler Stein
23:45
gave up one, and Dickerson gave up one. Now, but
23:48
by the way, are these only on passes? Yes, okay,
23:51
because I saw what Dickerson gave up, I guess a
23:55
run pressure. He just couldn't block the guy. Uh, I
23:58
forget which it was very early in the game and
24:01
the guy got right inside him. I didn't know if
24:02
that counted as pressure allowed when when you you know,
24:07
get a run stuff because of it.
24:09
Speaker 2: Yeah. Unfortunately, the stats are somewhat limited to just pass blocking,
24:13
at least the one, so so I always have a
24:16
choice about which ones I'm reporting. This one's PFF. I
24:19
think PFF does a pretty good job at attributing blame
24:22
on offensive linemen and like wins and losses on defensive linemen,
24:25
I think does It does a far better job than
24:28
NFL Next Gen Stats, which doesn't really track this at all. Right,
24:32
it does to some extent, but yeah, that's that's where
24:34
this came from.
24:36
Speaker 1: All Right, You've got some push push stat here stats here.
24:39
I actually thought there were seven, but you charted six.
24:42
Speaker 2: Okay, there may have been seven. The actual NFL Next
24:46
Gen stat had six. This is I pulled this right
24:50
from the NFL's website, Okay, and so I just thought
24:53
it was interesting, so I thought it was worth sharing. Always, yeah,
24:57
maybe there were seven. It's possib the goal that they
25:01
for whatever reason only counted six, but six of them
25:06
converted four of them and increased their win probability by
25:10
sixteen percent. I thought that was just such a cool
25:12
stat that is because like it just goes to show
25:15
you kind of what we were talking about at the
25:17
beginning of this episode, right, this is their brand of football,
25:20
this is how they win games. And if you're able
25:22
to convert short yardage goal line situations with this play,
25:27
I mean, it's a winning formula sixteen percent. It swung
25:30
their winning percentage by that much. That's crazy. You know.
25:34
Speaker 1: I was going to write something just on the part
25:36
of the everybody understands the analytics part of being a
25:40
four down offense. You have to you can average less
25:42
per per down than a team that traditionally is gonna
25:46
punt after not getting it on third down. But there's
25:50
also a demoralizing aspect of it. Not the physical nature,
25:54
but for example, early in the game. The Chiefs do
25:57
a really good job on first and second down. They
25:59
forced the Eagles in the third and seven, and they
26:02
even do a good job in third and seven. They
26:03
blitz Hurts to speed up his clock and he throws
26:06
a six yard pass short of the sticks to aj Brown.
26:10
But guess what that's advantage Eagles a six yard pass
26:14
on third and seven because it sets up a toush
26:17
push and you know defenses are trained play the sticks
26:21
on third down, speed up that like you did. The
26:23
Chiefs did everything right against any other opponent. Most every
26:28
other opponent, they're probably getting a punt there against the Eagles.
26:32
They just know right from the start they just gave
26:34
up first down on a third and six conversion. When
26:36
they on a six yard conversion on third and seven,
26:39
there's got to be a demoralizing aspect of understanding that
26:43
you did your job, you did your job, but it
26:45
wasn't enough. Yeah. I think that really wears teams down
26:49
emotionally as much as it does physically.
26:51
Speaker 2: Yeah, and two points on that one. I mean that
26:55
third and seven with the six yard game is a
26:58
negative EPA. But that's the Eagles kind of would prefer
27:03
that if they're not like if they rather get six
27:05
yards than five yard obviously, and so they can set
27:07
up this opportunity. But it also changes the play calling
27:10
right here there. We actually we had this discussion at
27:14
Penn State all the time, and it is interesting when
27:17
you're on third down, are you taking a shot like
27:20
if you know you have to take two opportunities? Are
27:23
you taking two behind beyond the line of the line
27:26
to gain or are you taking to the prior and
27:30
trying to figure that out. So it's just it's fascinating
27:32
and from a play calling perspective, it allows them to,
27:35
you know, take what the defense gives them, take the
27:38
six yards and then get that opportunity. So that's those
27:41
are what I'd add to that.
27:42
Speaker 1: Love that all right? The passing game, Sam, everybody's asking
27:46
what's going on with the passing game? I know you've
27:48
got some next gen charts here? So what does it
27:52
jumps out here?
27:53
Speaker 2: Yeah? I mean only DeVonta Smith and Kylin Granson had
27:56
a positive EPA on their receptions. Most of DeVonta Smith's
28:00
positive came from the one play, which was the deep
28:04
ball that had a pretty interesting release angle from Hertz.
28:08
But I think that's interesting, and I think it kind
28:13
of goes to what we've been talking about, right, I mean,
28:14
they don't have to take as many deep shots that
28:17
they can set themselves up for opportunities to convert in
28:20
short yardage situations.
28:21
Speaker 1: Yeah.
28:23
Speaker 2: However, Smith, Grantson, Barkley, Dotson, and Mechi all had positive
28:28
catch rade over expectation. So the receivers are doing good job,
28:31
you know, at catching balls that they're not maybe not
28:33
necessarily supposed to, even though they're not contributing to you know,
28:37
that traditional EPA algorithm in the way that you'd want
28:40
to see, but you don't need to see it again
28:43
it because of what we talked about, maybe there should
28:45
be less of an emphasis on EPA for the Eagles
28:48
because they are a four down team. So I think
28:50
that's a really fascinating insight something I might have to
28:52
adjust a little bit in the future.
28:54
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it's hard to when we put Grantson
28:57
and dots in and Metchi and even Barkley in here,
29:01
I don't think either of any of them had more
29:03
than two catches. Maybe Barkley did because from dumbles, so
29:07
that any one kind of good play can heavily wait
29:10
for him. Oh, it probably and I imagine the Smith
29:14
plus eleven point three A lot of that came from
29:17
the big catch that he made at the end of
29:18
the game, which was absolutely you know, that was a
29:21
low percentage for most receivers catch For Smith, it feels
29:25
like he does that twice a week.
29:27
Speaker 2: No doubt. I mean, it's very special receiver. And then
29:31
the last stat on there is Dotson led the team
29:33
average and yards of separation when targeted at ten point
29:37
nine and Brown had the lowest out of receivers that
29:40
were actually targeted at two point zero.
29:42
Speaker 1: Oh interesting. And then that so that segues into the
29:45
kind of routes here that you're showing AJ Brown was
29:48
running thanks to next gen stats by NFL. I mean
29:51
that people were upset that there was a predictability to
29:55
the offense. I think some of that was just shaped
29:58
by the Chiefs bringing six seven eight. And you need answers,
30:01
right whenever the Eagles get a lot of pressure and
30:04
Hurts is running around and sacked, people always say where's
30:07
your hot route? Where's your answer? Well, they were trying
30:09
to get answers here with AJ Brown. But it was
30:12
a tough day. I mean, he did have any targets.
30:14
But obviously the Chiefs made this happen too.
30:18
Speaker 2: Yeah, and while you're looking at that chart, I think
30:21
something interesting is he was targeted on five of the
30:24
seven slant routes that he ran. Again, look through seven
30:26
slant routes. That's kind of insane catching four of those.
30:29
Four of those were the four of the five receptions
30:32
for twenty six yards, which was twenty six out of
30:33
his twenty seven yards.
30:35
Speaker 1: Right.
30:36
Speaker 2: Interestingly, but Brown ran a slant route on twenty nine
30:39
point two percent of his routes, which was the highest
30:42
rate of his career.
30:44
Speaker 1: Right.
30:44
Speaker 2: In fact, he has been running in breaking routes on
30:47
a career high forty eight point nine percent through the
30:50
first two games of the season.
30:52
Speaker 1: Wow. Very interesting. But he also, I mean, this chart
30:55
shows you that those slant routes that he ran, like
30:57
you can say, well, they were running in predictably same
30:59
route all the time. But those were all of his
31:01
catches came from. Yeah, and to the other round, who
31:04
was wonder where the ball didn't get to him?
31:06
Speaker 2: That's also very true. The fun thing is, though, is
31:09
there they could also be setting up the rest of
31:10
the year, right, I mean, there's a lot you can
31:12
do off of a slant like you can pull it
31:15
up slugo, you could come back with a whip. There's there.
31:18
You can set up things for the future.
31:20
Speaker 1: Yes, that's true. That's true. I mean, I'm not trying
31:22
to put lipstick on a pig either here. It wasn't
31:24
It wasn't great offensively, but I think people sometimes forget
31:29
like you have to have a plan that's in place
31:32
for what the defense is going to do. I'm not
31:34
saying this couldn't have been better, better, and it should
31:37
have been and they could have. I mean, it seemed
31:39
like DeVante was the one they wanted to target specifically
31:43
on the down against the blitz on the downfield ones,
31:45
because I think he had three or four opportunity and
31:47
he just came down with one. We'll get to that
31:49
in a second. A. J. Brown's a good guy to
31:51
have that done too. They did try to get into
31:53
him in the first play of the game, but unfortunately,
31:55
uh you know that there was a bad blitz Calcataro
31:58
Whift on it. There was somebody there was confusion up front,
32:01
so that happens. Yeah, yeah, all right, So this is
32:05
the Jalen Hurts spray chart. Yes, pretty talking, well, I
32:10
guess he I see that there are no attempts or
32:13
completions in the middle of the field. Were the numbers
32:16
which we talk about all the time rising there? And
32:19
then everything's sort of this is like the uh, the
32:23
hooks and flats game for the for Jaalen.
32:25
Speaker 2: Yeah, it really is. And just some quick stats, I'll
32:30
do them kind of briefly, just on them. But this
32:33
was HER's seventh career win with fewer than one hundred
32:35
and thirty yards including playoffs, which is the most by
32:38
any quarterback since twenty twenty. He's the first quarterback to
32:41
start two to zero without throwing a touchdown over the
32:44
last fifteen seasons, and he only completed one out of
32:48
four twenty traveling ten plus air yards. This is the
32:52
sixth game in his career with one or fewer completions
32:56
on passes ten plus yards down the field and the
32:58
only time this occurred ever twice in the season for him. Yeah,
33:02
just contrast that with Super Bowl fifty nine. He was
33:05
five for seven, seventy one point four percent on those passes,
33:08
one hundred and thirty seven yards, one touchdown, one interception.
33:12
Speaker 1: I am very confident in saying Jalen Hurts is the
33:15
most complex case study of quarterbacking in the NFL, you know,
33:19
because people want to like pigeonhole him into this and that,
33:22
and then he comes out with games like the super
33:24
Bowl and the Steelers game last year. There have been
33:27
plenty of times where he's kind of let it loose.
33:29
You just don't know when it's coming.
33:31
Speaker 2: Yeah, and that bothers people.
33:33
Speaker 1: I mean, it really does.
33:35
Speaker 2: It really does. They want to, you know, compartmentalize, they
33:37
want to categorize, and you just kind of can't do
33:39
that with him.
33:40
Speaker 1: Yeah. No, I mean I don't even know where myself
33:43
I fall into it other than just as an objective observer.
33:47
I find it extremely interesting and fascinating because there's really
33:52
nobody like this, right and at times not knowing how
33:57
to process the data other than the fact that we
33:59
all say the same thing.
34:01
Speaker 2: They win, right, That's the only data point that matters.
34:05
And the last thing I'll say about Hurts is really
34:08
it's his mindset and attitude and just willingness to win.
34:12
And you can't put that in statistics, right.
34:15
Speaker 1: Well, the one thing that I do put that into
34:18
because I think that it folds in, is that he
34:21
does not turn the ball over, and that's part of
34:24
the mindset. Why doesn't he throw the ball in the
34:27
middle of the field. It's not a confident throw for him.
34:30
He'll take a sack and hold on to the ball
34:33
before he will try to thread a window that he's
34:36
not confident in threading. And I'm not saying he can
34:38
never do it. There are examples of times of him
34:41
throwing between the numbers. But the point is, the overall
34:44
mentality is he understands how his team is built. He
34:47
understands what he can do both throwing it deep and
34:50
rushing to get out of jams, and isn't afraid to
34:53
put the offense in a jam right by taking a sack,
34:57
as opposed to putting the offense in a position by
35:00
turning the ball over.
35:03
Speaker 2: Yeah, I couldn't have said it better myself.
35:05
Speaker 1: Awesome, all right. Defense start of the stat sheet is
35:12
that you always find these nice smiling shots. I like that,
35:15
I love it do it.
35:16
Speaker 2: They're always They're always good. I want to keep happy
35:19
vibes here, And speaking of this is this is my
35:21
time right now. I'm I'm coming on inside the data
35:24
right now to say I was wrong and I'm happy.
35:28
I was wrong. I hated this pick player, but I
35:32
hated the value in the selection, and it's already proven
35:35
that it was the right It could have been the
35:36
right pick for sure.
35:37
Speaker 1: I mean it looks that way. Well let's see. You
35:39
never know, some people start off on fire and then
35:42
and then then you know it doesn't work out. But
35:43
he certainly does look like the right marriage of player
35:46
to the scheme and everything.
35:47
Speaker 2: Yeah, but basically, let's let's look at these stats really quick.
35:50
Six tackles, one sack, one interception, four defensive stops, three targets,
35:56
two receptions eighteen yards, a forty three point one quarterback
36:00
reading when targeted, and negative zero point nine percent completion
36:05
rate over expectation and a negative six point one coverage GPA.
36:10
Now that probably all mostly came from the interception because
36:14
you're expected to score there and he effectively prevented the score,
36:18
So that's probably where most of that comes from. But
36:21
still very impressive.
36:23
Speaker 1: Yeah, for his second ever game and all the time
36:26
that he missed for and the guy just knows where
36:29
to be. Man, it's almost he's like almost like the
36:32
Jalen Hurts of defensive players because he's just always in
36:36
the right place at the right time.
36:37
Speaker 2: And that's why you draft him in the second round.
36:39
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experience made for Philly fans. Twenty one and up. Let's
38:48
look at the defensive line and edge pressure stats here.
38:51
What jumps out to you? Is it true that nobody
38:54
had a win rate like a positive win rate above
38:55
zero percent.
38:56
Speaker 2: That's what PFF said I reloaded the pay three times.
39:00
I'm like, like this just it probably is just not up.
39:03
And then I looked at the interior defensive line, which
39:05
we'll see next, and no, it was up. Just nobody
39:08
won within two point five seconds of the snap.
39:11
Speaker 1: Right, because that's the I'm glad you have that here
39:13
in the chart. That means winning within two point five
39:15
seconds of the snap. That and and yet some guys
39:19
had get offs like Nolan Smith and Jox Hunt of
39:22
under one second, So like, what was going on between just.
39:27
Speaker 2: To be clear, that's just crossing the line of crossing the.
39:29
Speaker 1: Line, I'm saring, like, what's going on between the nano
39:32
second that you crossed the line and then two point
39:35
five seconds that you weren't. You weren't near the quarterback
39:38
or getting some pressure they were.
39:40
Speaker 2: They were blocking pretty well on the outside. That's that's
39:42
what that means to me. So or if they were twisting,
39:45
you know, they were getting wherever they were going. The
39:48
blocking was pretty good on the edge rushers got it.
39:51
That being said, I mean, I would like to highlight this.
39:54
Darius Smith made an impact instantly that that was an
39:57
awesome signing. We talked a little bit about that offline,
40:00
very excited to see what happens with that. Uh, you know,
40:03
Nolan Smith did a really good job. I think his
40:06
get off is really encouraging. That zero point eight four
40:09
it's going to translate into pressures and sacks as the
40:12
year goes on.
40:13
Speaker 1: Right, And just to reiterate, somebody might say, well, how
40:15
did Nolan Smith, j Alex Hunt and Zadarius Smith combined
40:19
for five pressures and have a zero percent win rate?
40:21
It meant all their pressures came after two point five
40:24
seconds of the snap exactly, all right, not bad, Just
40:30
to probably one of the weirder things you'll ever see.
40:32
I'm gonna guess we are not going to see another
40:35
game this year Eagles game where all of the edge
40:39
rushers have a zero point zero win rate. That's a guess.
40:43
We write that down, say remember that I said it,
40:47
and then maybe, like you, I'll be doing some mia kolpa,
40:51
you know, I like you just did on Makouba.
40:54
Speaker 2: That's the thing. I'm happy to be wrong in those things.
40:57
It's good, especially when it's better for the team, Like
40:59
that's that's the best time to be wrong.
41:01
Speaker 1: And then, as you mentioned on the interior line, two guys,
41:05
Jordan Davis, who played a good game, did not have
41:08
a positive win rate, but Ojomo and Jalen Carter had
41:12
good ones.
41:13
Speaker 2: Now, to be clear, this is also just in the
41:15
pass rush, right, this is not on the run plays.
41:18
So I think that's important to understand too, because a
41:20
lot of what Jordan Davis did well was stopping the run.
41:23
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's all we care about. By the way, nobody
41:25
cares what's happy they're on from a statistical standpoint. They
41:27
want they want to know about the edge rush pressure.
41:30
Speaker 2: But what's very encouraging is the fact that Jalen Carter
41:34
instant impact when he's back. I mean, we knew that
41:36
was going to happen. Four pressures, you know, a pressure
41:40
every nine snaps or opportunities. You know, fifteen percent win rate,
41:45
which is elite for an interior defensive lineman, and the
41:48
get off was one point oh three. What is even
41:51
more impressive is Moro Joma.
41:53
Speaker 1: I thought he had a great game, just like even
41:55
the tape watching Sam, he was really really disruptive.
41:58
Speaker 2: A thirty point eight percent win rate. Now my data
42:02
says that greater than fifteen is elite doubling.
42:07
Speaker 1: That is insane, right, right now, he generally lines up
42:11
over left center and left guard, and their left guard
42:14
Kingsley Suamaya Teya has some work to do. But yeah,
42:18
that's what you want to see one of your players
42:20
dominate somebody on the other side of the ball who's
42:22
just not ready yet.
42:24
Speaker 2: Absolutely.
42:25
Speaker 1: I like how Vic said in his press conference something
42:27
the fact you guys gotta stop being surprised. I mean
42:30
no offense to Vic. Just because somebody asks a question
42:33
doesn't mean they're surprised by anyway. We're just looking for
42:36
you to valance. We're trying to write a story about
42:38
it or or have a podcast about a guy playing well,
42:40
and we want you to say he's playing well when
42:42
he is. That's all. No, I don't think people are
42:44
surprised anymore that that Morojomo plays well.
42:47
Speaker 2: But speaking of Vic and speaking of surprises, that there
42:50
was a reason why I didn't put the secondary on here, okay,
42:53
and it is. It all has to do with that
42:56
forty nine yard touchdown pass to Taekwon Thornton. Both PFF
43:02
and Next Gen Stats attributed it differently. Next Gen Stats
43:07
is really big on nearest defender. That's how they attribute blame.
43:12
And because Quinnon Mitchell tried to make a play. He
43:15
got blamed for that forty nine yard patent.
43:18
Speaker 1: Yeah, we talked about this. I'm not sure that that
43:21
I think it was. It was the miscommunication element of it, right, yeah, yeah.
43:25
Speaker 2: And regardless of where I also was considering Read blanken
43:28
Ship for the Star of the statute because he had
43:30
a great game too. But it's just it's it's really
43:34
hard to you know, when there is a miscommunication attribute
43:38
that blame appropriately without knowing what the play call was,
43:42
what they were trying to do. I watched several you know,
43:44
analysts break that play down and that some of them
43:48
came up with different reasons. Some of them blame Macouba,
43:50
some of them blame Read. Some of them even blame Quinnon,
43:52
which I still think is ridiculous. It was not Quinon
43:55
was trying to make a play on a busted coverage,
43:57
I really do. If anything, it was probably re right.
44:01
That's That's where I'm at with it, just based on
44:03
watching the play, watching people who analyzed it. But it
44:07
was just hard for me to put those stats in there.
44:10
Uh and seriously, you know, defend them.
44:12
Speaker 1: So understood, so that that's a good reason to keep
44:16
that out. I mean, I'd rather keep something like that
44:18
out than try to make a guess, right.
44:21
Speaker 2: Absolutely, And that's why I explained it right now. Just
44:23
we're always transparent and just letting you know where we
44:26
stand on everything.
44:27
Speaker 1: There you go. I had something I wanted to go
44:32
through with that also on that play that I don't exactly.
44:36
It's not coming in my head right now.
44:38
Speaker 2: If it does, I can go over the linebackers really
44:40
quick and if it comes up to you, let me know.
44:42
Speaker 1: Yeah. I just think that there was uncertainty because of
44:45
the motion. As you mentioned, it was I think Juju
44:48
who went in motion and it just caused uncertainty who's
44:53
the number one there? Because of the way he motioned.
44:56
Speaker 2: Juju became the number one, right right, But then then
45:00
Taekwon was the two rights he went vertical, so it's
45:03
like because he was, he would have been the one
45:05
and it's supposed to carry three vertical a lot of
45:07
the times in those kind of concepts, right, which, if
45:10
that was the case, it was Macuba, But they also
45:12
ran a very similar They ran a Cobra what we
45:14
call Cobra corner blitz at one point where they had
45:18
a dory Jackson blitz and then they had mccuba playing
45:21
that over top of that, and it looked kind of
45:23
similar to that concept. I saw somebody say that, and
45:26
I kind of agreed with it. But it's a very
45:28
complicated analysis without actually knowing what Vic was trying to do.
45:32
Speaker 1: You know, sometimes you have a team sack instead of individuals.
45:35
I think you just put it on the team or
45:36
a team penalty set of individual I think so too. Linebackers, Sam,
45:41
they were fantastic. Again, It's amazing to watch an Eagles
45:44
team with linebackers this athletic. It just is.
45:48
Speaker 2: You know, if I told you, you know, three years
45:50
ago that the Eagles would have one of the best
45:52
running backs in the league and some really amazing linebackers,
45:56
would you be shocked?
45:57
Speaker 1: And the running backs I believe I've seen, you know,
46:00
Westbrook to McCoy from Deuce, But if you would have
46:03
told me they would have good off ball linebackers and
46:06
good corners, you like with Degena Mitchell, I'd tell you
46:09
to get out of here. And that they drafted them
46:12
except for Bond. I mean, they drafted Campbell and Ni
46:14
Kobe by the way, feel bad for Nikobe, but the
46:18
reality is he's not getting his job back. I mean,
46:20
you don't take off the field now, Yeah, you can't.
46:23
Speaker 2: Yeah, and the reason why, I mean, look, Campbell led
46:26
the team in tackles with seven. I mean he was
46:29
also if it depends on which stat you look at,
46:31
some PFF had six, next Gen stat had seven. Just
46:35
because of what I went with when the KUBA had
46:37
to go with the consistency, That's why seven. Zach Bond
46:41
and he was tied with Cooper Dejen by the way,
46:43
but in both of them they were six and seven.
46:46
Zach Bond had three quarterback pressures, which was tied first
46:49
with Jalen Carter. On passes, Bond was targeted five times,
46:54
allowing two receptions for twelve yards, quarterback rating of forty
46:57
seven point nine, a minus thirty nine three percent catch
47:01
rate over expectation, and a minus two point five coverage EPA.
47:05
Speaker 1: That's pretty impressive without having like a pass breakup in
47:09
the end zone or an interception right like mccouba had.
47:13
That that's pretty impressive stats right there.
47:15
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, Bond, Bond could have easily won back
47:18
to back star in the snatcheet, but there there was
47:21
a little you know, uh, what's that called voter fatigue?
47:25
And I'm the only voter now, I'm just kidding. Mccouba
47:29
had such a good game it was hard not to
47:30
put him there.
47:31
Speaker 1: No, that's fair.
47:32
Speaker 2: Fair, And then Campbell was targeted twice. He allowed one
47:35
reception for four yards, fifty six point three quarterback rating
47:38
minus thirteen point four catch rate over expectation, and eight
47:42
minus point zero seven coverage EPA.
47:45
Speaker 1: Wow, really truly amazing to see these linebackers now two
47:49
straight weeks, and obviously going back to last year with
47:51
Dean and Bond, but for Jihad to just get in
47:55
there and show that athleticism and not play like a
47:58
rookie pretty amazing to me and a big part of
48:03
so far the Eagles defensive success. And now Vic has
48:06
optionality because last year, if you remember, Sam, I think
48:10
we even talked about this on an episode, when they
48:12
wanted to go to a bear front, they would bring
48:14
Bond down as the fifth and then give them a
48:17
little edge rush or just make a five on five blocking.
48:19
But now they're also doing that with Campbell, which enables
48:23
them to use Bond as either a blitzer and a
48:26
six or interchangeably, or it just gives optionality. Now you
48:29
don't know which guy is going to come on line
48:31
on the edge all the time.
48:32
Speaker 2: Oh man, we are so spoiled. This defense is the coordinator,
48:36
the personnel, the optionality, the versatility. There's just we're spoiled.
48:42
Speaker 1: You're not old enough to say that, because there's a
48:44
lot of Eagles fans who went twenty to thirty years
48:46
without having good inside linebackers like that. So you know,
48:50
if you starve for twenty five thirty years and someone
48:52
brings you to a buffet, you're not spoiled. You're just
48:55
making up for off meals. You know what I'm saying.
48:57
Speaker 2: Well said, I'm sure the older fans would have siate
49:00
that for sure.
49:02
Speaker 1: Hey, great stuff, Sam, awesome data. Really appreciate it, loving
49:05
the show, getting great feedback. So why don't we do
49:08
what we do and just come back next week and
49:09
wrap up Week three against the Rams?
49:12
Speaker 2: Can't wait?
49:13
Speaker 1: All right? Great stuff, awesome, We thank you again for
49:15
Sam Finkel. I'm Jeff Mosher. You've been watching Inside the
49:18
Data on Inside the Birds