Latest / The Curve / TCW9: Why the oil price is skyrocketing and who pays for what when it comes to weddings!

Transcript

TCW9: Why the oil price is skyrocketing and who pays for what when it comes to weddings! · The Curve

• 0:00
  We're really excited to have partnered with Audi to bring you the Curve Weakly, a podcast
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  that encourages women to work towards driving a more progressive future.
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  And if you haven't already, check out our savings calculator at thecurve.co.nz to help
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  you reach your savings goals.
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  Hi and welcome to the Curve Weakly, the podcast that keeps you up to date with all the money,
• 0:21
  business and stock market tea.
• 0:23
  Everyone should experience for us at least once in their lives, and Annie shouldn't miss
• 0:26
  us because she can't afford it.
• 0:27
  Help me, I'm calling Victoria Weakly.
• 0:31
  Victoria Weakly.
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  We're talking ups.
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  I see what you got.
• 0:35
  Videos of your Weakly in the Weakly and the Weakly.
• 0:37
  What, not, not, not, not...
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  Just get there, I'll be right back.
• 0:41
  Whoa, they haven't asked.
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  No, the Weakly and the Weakly and my God.
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  It was a fun time.
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  I have blisters.
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  Like my, I've used like a whole packet of band-oats this morning honestly.
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  But that's a sign of a good night.
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  Is the, is the wedding going to be in Woman's Day or will I just say who's it was?
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  No.
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  We're not allowed to say who's it was.
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  No, it's not going to be in.
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  Oh, okay.
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  So, Sam, would we say New Zealand famous?
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  Kind of.
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  One of the most famous sportsmen in New Zealand.
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  Yeah.
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  So we're not allowed to say who's it was, but it was.
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  Very fun.
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  Very, it looked amazing.
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  I also went to a wedding in the Weakly and there was 17 bridesmaids.
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  17.
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  Wow.
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  I know.
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  God, that's a posse.
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  Like when they were walking down the aisle, they had to go in twos.
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  Because there's so many of them.
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  Were there 17 groomsmen?
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  No, there's only four.
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  I don't think I'd even have 17 friends.
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  Neither.
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  Neither.
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  See, hey, I just met you on Saturday night.
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  But do you want to be my brother?
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  No, she was genuinely, really good friends of their own,
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  which I thought was quite amazing.
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  But also, very expensive situation.
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  Surely you would be like, sort your own dresses, sort your own makeup.
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  Which I actually think is, personally, the way to go anyway.
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  No.
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  I think if I was asking you to be my bridesmaids,
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  and then asking you to buy your own dress and shoes,
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  and you know, it's like you're doing me a favor by coming to my event.
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  Therefore, I should pay for that.
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  Yeah, that's my view.
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  Therefore, I will be having zero bridesmaids.
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  Yeah, yeah, yeah.
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  The budget, unfortunately, does not fit.
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  I say that now, and then once I get married, I'm like,
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  no, no, no, you can all buy your own.
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  My best friend asked me to be her bridesmaid, and I cried.
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  I was so happy.
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  Awesome.
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  And then two weeks later, she told me she wasn't having bridesmaids.
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  I was like, so sad.
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  And you turned to the wedding, and there is bridesmaids,
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  and you're like, shit.
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  No, but I had a bit of a mayor at the wedding.
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  What happened?
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  I was, I had a few drinks.
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  Yep, you.
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  And for me, it was margarita.
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  Oh, it was great.
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  Great selection.
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  It was fun.
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  I don't believe I'm going to say this on the phone.
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  I'm like, racking my brain to think what could have...
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  I'm kind of sad.
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  Can I guess?
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  Did you wear your pants?
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  Close?
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  No.
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  Did you do a spontaneous speech?
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  No, that wouldn't be fun.
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  No, I...
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  I saw my phone, and I was...
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  I already loved this.
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  I don't even know.
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  I was kind of seeing someone, and he loves overseas.
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  He was coming back.
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  And I...
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  You seemed to know.
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  No.
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  I mean, that could have been very possible.
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  No.
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  I was in a wedding.
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  I thought I'd go to the toilet again.
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  No, I've seen him a message saying, miss you.
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  Can't wait to see you.
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  And soon after the family, what's happened to you?
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  Hey, that could have been so much worse.
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  I know.
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  But it was a fuck.
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  It was a very big eye.
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  It was like, wow, make sure you know who you're texting.
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  If you said, can't wait to have sex with you.
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  I know.
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  It could have been so.
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  You could have said so.
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  It was sexy.
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  Oh, I know.
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  And I...
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  Did anyone see it?
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  Did anyone see it?
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  Realized straightaway.
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  And deleted it straightaway.
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  And you know how it shows deleted message.
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  But I was like, I don't care.
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  Anyway, and then my mom texted me and goes,
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  Too late!
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  I saw it!
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  It's like...
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  Classic, I think.
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  I know.
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  Anyway, I was just like,
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  Oh, and then it was like going around the party,
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  going around the wedding.
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  Oh, I got back.
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  I heard that you texted me once.
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  Anyway.
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  Anyway.
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  How did you do that?
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  I know.
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  I know.
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  Well, surely it says family WhatsApp in the group.
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  Yeah, it says family.
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  Yep.
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  But they both hit the top of WhatsApp anyways.
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  They had a few drinks.
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  They had a few drinks.
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  You know, so...
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  Yes.
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  So...
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  So...
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  That was...
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  It sold me up pretty quickly.
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  Oh.
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  Stock, stock, stock.
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  Yeah.
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  The ESMP 500 is up 1.3%.
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  And the NASDAQ was up 1.5%.
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  But for February, so we've just finished the month...
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  We've finished the month last week.
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  And the stock market, the US stock market,
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  so the ESMP 500 was down 3%.
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  So we had a really good January,
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  not so good February.
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  But that is the nature of investing.
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  Yes.
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  And the Aussie market was pretty much flat.
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  So it was New Zealand.
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  So, yeah, pretty ho-hum.
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  But in the US, we've been talking about
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  how companies have been reporting over the last month.
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  So I guess, kind of, it's really good to look at, you know,
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  what do those companies that collectively
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  mean for the economy for the stock market?
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  And so...
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  Oh, I like this.
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  Overall, pretty underwhelming.
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  Like a lot of companies missing expectations,
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  which isn't good.
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  So that means that, you know, analysts in the market
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  are thinking it's going to be really good.
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  And they come in, you know, slightly below.
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  Yeah.
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  So we had some pretty disappointing results.
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  Like, if you think, remember, Apple
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  was one, Alphabet.
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  So Google was another.
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  And...
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  But we also had some really good ones.
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  So we had a lot of the energy companies, which, you know...
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  Like a clean energy.
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  Or like dirty energy.
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  Or gross.
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  And that's because of the oil price doing well.
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  You're right there.
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  Yeah, I'm just putting some cute clips
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  and then I got a very beautiful thing.
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  Sorry.
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  How cute are they though?
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  Really cute.
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  Sorry.
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  That's a story of a life.
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  So this is like that, right?
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  But yes.
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  So if we looked at all the companies...
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  So if we look at all the companies as a whole,
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  then corporate profits or corporate earnings in the US
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  are expected to fall about 5% this year.
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  So that's not that good.
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  It's also not that bad.
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  No, it's not that bad.
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  No.
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  But this is the first time that earnings are expected to decline
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  since 2020, and that's when we had COVID.
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  So we've had a really, really strong rebound since COVID
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  and now things are starting to kind of go...
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  Yeah, yeah.
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  It's coming back on that theme of energy companies doing really well.
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  It's kind of one of something I wanted to touch on
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  was just around the oil price.
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  So we always talk about stocks.
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  But, you know, there are commodities like oil,
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  which are really, really important as well.
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  And we've all come out of COVID and lockdowns and everything.
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  Well, most of the world has, but China has kind of been a little bit...
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  Has kind of been a lagger and...
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  Are they still in lockdown?
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  So they're coming out of lockdown now.
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  So over the last couple of months,
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  they've been coming out of lockdown.
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  So they've been in lockdown for three years,
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  and in China, it's strict lockdown.
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  Like, very, very strict stuff.
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  They must have been some serious climbs in mental health
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  as you and me, and...
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  Like, that is just so full of.
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  Yeah.
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  And they...
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  I felt four or five months was bad enough.
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  Can you imagine three years?
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  And, you know, the children, they haven't been to school.
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  And like, all that, like, it would just be...
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  Yeah, it's going to be quite interesting and scary
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  as to what the repercussions of that will be.
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  But, one of the repercussions of them now reopening
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  is that they're now driving cars,
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  they're now flying, they're traveling.
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  And so that all means they're demanding a lot of oil.
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  And being one of the biggest...
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  They're the second largest consumer of oil, I know.
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  And the US is the first.
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  I want you to guess how many barrels a day
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  do you reckon the US consumes of oil?
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  How much isn't a barrel, like vaguely?
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  Ah, okay, right.
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  So scientific.
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  Thank you.
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  Just be a hugging the ear.
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  Like, oh, about this.
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  Um...
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  No.
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  I don't know, like 100...
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  100,000?
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  19 million barrels a day.
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  19 million a day?
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  I know.
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  Oh, wow.
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  There's so much.
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  Wow, how are we even...
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  How is the world even sustained?
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  In China's like 15 million a day.
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  Ah, really?
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  I mean, how much the whole world consumes a day?
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  Yeah.
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  Shit, that's a lot.
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  But, that's like crazy.
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  And so, when you've got China coming back online
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  and wanting an increasing demand for oil,
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  then that leads to, you know, an increasing demand.
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  But we've also had the shortage of supply
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  because, you know, when people weren't flying during COVID,
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  a lot of those oil production companies shut down production,
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  because they were like, well, there's no one to sell it to,
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  so let's cut production.
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  And that doesn't just come back online quickly, you know.
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  If you're thinking you're drilling, finding oil,
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  you've got to take time.
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  So, we've got this limited supply,
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  heaps of demand,
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  and that's just going to lead to global oil prices going bananas.
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  So, is this where a lot of short term investors
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  would look to invest in oil companies?
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  Yeah.
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  And that's why the energy companies did super, super well
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  when they reported their results this month.
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  So, they, you know, if you remember Chevron, BP,
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  like they're all making, you know, record, record profits.
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  And it's because of these,
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  this really high oil price.
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  And we also spoke about in the curve weekly,
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  BP had a target to cut their carbon emissions by 40% by 2030.
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  And they've now changed that to a 25% reduction.
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  So, they've...
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  Yeah.
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  And it's all because of this.
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  They're like, well, we've got to keep producing oil
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  because the world needs it.
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  And it's like, come on guys, like, yeah.
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  What would they do, though?
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  What is the alternative?
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  Renewables.
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  Yeah.
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  Or you can buy off-sets so you can buy carbon credits.
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  So, they should be doing that.
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  They should be doing it.
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  I think the...
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  Well, carbon...
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  My opinion is carbon credits are kind of not a cheating way,
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  but it's kind of...
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  It's an easy way.
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  You're just buying the ability to produce more carbon emissions, really.
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  Whereas what you should be doing is looking at your business
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  and being like, hey, how can we actually reduce our emissions
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  overall, not just be like three minus three equals zero?
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  It's like, how do we reduce the three?
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  Do you know what I mean?
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  Yeah.
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  Yeah.
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  But this all leads to inflation.
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  You've got high oil prices.
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  You've got high petrol prices.
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  It's all leads to inflation.
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  So, yay!
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  Oh, shit.
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  Shit.
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  So, that inflation of 67%.
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  Is that what New Zealand's currently at?
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  New Zealand is...
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  New Zealand, the US.
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  Yeah, they're all around 67%, which is great fun.
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  So, do we think that that's going to get higher again now that...
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  Well, it's just people were saying, oh, look, this is just, you know, a transition.
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  And inflation, well, we just bet there's levels because of COVID.
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  It's all going to come back.
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  Sorry, back.
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  Because we're going to come back to more normal levels of that two to three percent.
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  But when you have things like this saying, oil's going back up to over $100 and it's at, you know, $70, $80 now,
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  that just is all like, oh, so we're not going to see inflation come back for a while.
• 11:30
  You know, it's all these extra things keep happening, which makes it feel like inflation is going to stay higher for longer.
• 11:37
  Well, no, I think I need to pay rise.
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  Yeah.
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  Shit, that's so...
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  That sucks.
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  Yeah.
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  I think the reason it's the most deflating is it feels as though all of the things that are doing harm to the world or people.
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  So, whether it be layoffs or...
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  Like, when people are being laid off and losing their job, it's good for inflation.
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  Yeah.
• 12:00
  And then when oil prices are high, which is shit for the planet, it's also bad for inflation.
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  Like, it just feels like we're getting smacked on the face with an older fish.
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  Yeah, yeah, yeah.
• 12:09
  We're trying to...
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  You know, it's just like, you know, you will look one way and there's a slap.
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  You look the other and there's a slap.
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  You're like, I just want to get away from the fish.
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  Yeah.
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  Just take your smelly fish somewhere else.
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  Yeah.
• 12:21
  Yeah.
• 12:22
  One day.
• 12:23
  Optimism.
• 12:24
  And we just start faking the curfew.
• 12:25
  Click and you just bring some on positive news.
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  Break some joys.
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  Yeah.
• 12:29
  Is there any positive news?
• 12:30
  Oh!
• 12:31
  I will try and find more positive news in the next time.
• 12:35
  No, it's not that I want you to fake it.
• 12:37
  I'm more just like, on its depressing, isn't it?
• 12:39
  Yeah.
• 12:40
  Well, inflation is real and it's whatever it feels.
• 12:44
  So, it's good to kind of talk about, you know, the mechanics behind it.
• 12:47
  And, you know, understand that.
• 12:48
  Rather people are sitting there going, why is it not going down?
• 12:50
  Why is it not going down?
• 12:51
  It's like, we all these other kind of things in play that are leading to it staying high, unfortunately.
• 12:57
  And we also had Starbucks last week.
• 12:59
  So, Starbucks employees about nearly 300,000 people in the US, like...
• 13:05
  Just in America.
• 13:06
  Yeah, just in America.
• 13:08
  And they had a new CEO start in April last year.
• 13:11
  And we've actually sent this with quite a few companies now
• 13:14
  that they're putting rules in place that you have to be in the office three times a week, for example,
• 13:19
  to try and reverse this working from home stuff.
• 13:22
  And Amazon did it.
• 13:24
  And now Starbucks has come out and said that they want their stuff to be back in.
• 13:28
  And this is sorry, this is their head office stuff.
• 13:30
  Oh, okay.
• 13:31
  Yeah, yeah.
• 13:32
  How do I make coffee?
• 13:33
  I love the usual day.
• 13:34
  Yeah, yeah.
• 13:36
  Oh, I was the same whenever I read the headline.
• 13:38
  I was like, what?
• 13:39
  Yeah.
• 13:40
  But anyway, so they were saying there's nothing in the back in the office three days a week.
• 13:45
  And there's kind of been a bit of a backlash.
• 13:47
  People saying, no, we think we should be able to work when we want.
• 13:51
  And it's interesting, because I think we're going to see a lot more of this.
• 13:56
  Companies saying, you know, for productivity and creativity.
• 13:59
  And we sort with Disney as well.
• 14:01
  You know, it's better to have people back in the office together working together.
• 14:04
  And then a lot of people are saying, well, no, I like the flexibility.
• 14:08
  I work better from home.
• 14:09
  And so it's really interesting to see where we land.
• 14:11
  Whether it is three days a week or whether it's not.
• 14:14
  But just as a general.
• 14:16
  Yeah, just as a, like when we were talking the other day,
• 14:19
  it was like, why is the five day working week and five day working week?
• 14:22
  You know, why is it five days work two days off?
• 14:25
  I know.
• 14:26
  Like who decided that?
• 14:27
  And in your email, the Curve Weekly last week,
• 14:30
  or maybe it was the week before, one of the things you spoke about was that trial they did in London
• 14:34
  around companies trying a four day working week and three day weekend
• 14:39
  and the productivity and the what staff were putting out was exactly the same.
• 14:44
  And I mean,
• 14:45
  I do do a lot of, like, super interesting around.
• 14:48
  And this is quite a big thing, because culture at offices and at companies can permeate, you know,
• 14:56
  into other parts of the business.
• 14:58
  So if you've got a bad culture, Starbucks share prices up 4% yet today.
• 15:02
  And the market's up 6%.
• 15:04
  So it's actually underperformed.
• 15:05
  Right.
• 15:06
  Can I just say for anyone that doesn't understand that, basically,
• 15:09
  the entire stock market.
• 15:11
  And we're talking about SMB standards.
• 15:13
  Yeah.
• 15:14
  The American Stock Exchange with the main one is up, like as a year is up 6%.
• 15:19
  So any company that's up less than that is technically down.
• 15:23
  Well, it's under here.
• 15:24
  It's underperforming because it should be, that's the kind of the average.
• 15:27
  I guess it's performing below average.
• 15:29
  So something's happened or something's not right.
• 15:32
  And so that's what this is saying.
• 15:34
  People are like, oh, is this going to create a lot of, you know, cultural issues
• 15:37
  or people going to leave or is this going to be even just a distraction,
• 15:41
  you know, in terms of people just not giving on with their work
• 15:44
  because they're, you know, fighting on this and, yeah, just kind of disgruntled.
• 15:49
  Yeah.
• 15:50
  We will see.
• 15:51
  And I would just like to make a metaphorical toast.
• 15:55
  I don't have anything, not even a glass of water.
• 15:58
  But Tavik is now officially going to be full time in the curve.
• 16:02
  With you.
• 16:03
  So if you know on that, God, that's a terrible sounding clapper.
• 16:07
  Sounds like it.
• 16:08
  Sex.
• 16:09
  Yeah.
• 16:10
  Sorry.
• 16:11
  But congratulations.
• 16:12
  Very exciting.
• 16:13
  Good morning.
• 16:14
  Sorry.
• 16:15
  Oh my God.
• 16:16
  Sorry.
• 16:17
  Okay.
• 16:18
  How was your weekend?
• 16:19
  Real boring.
• 16:20
  Like as in nothing to meet nothing to report.
• 16:23
  Sorry.
• 16:24
  I saw someone.
• 16:25
  I can't remember where I was.
• 16:26
  Oh, we were doing a shoot last week.
• 16:29
  And someone was like, love listening to the podcast and learning about finance
• 16:33
  and also your sex life.
• 16:35
  Or the lack of.
• 16:36
  Anyway, congrats.
• 16:37
  Very exciting.
• 16:38
  Yes, I'm very, very excited.
• 16:40
  So, you know, you'll see lots more of me.
• 16:45
  We actually didn't have to record this podcast till 8.30 this morning.
• 16:48
  Yeah.
• 16:49
  Just because, you know, Vick doesn't have to hurry after the office.
• 16:51
  We're a bit late.
• 16:52
  Won't we?
• 16:53
  Sophie.
• 16:54
  Yeah.
• 16:55
  And we'll wrap this up.
• 16:56
  I forgot that you're Steve Card.
• 16:57
  It was a bit of a drama.
• 16:59
  Bye.
• 17:00
  Okay, back.
• 17:01
  We're really excited to have partnered with Audi to bring you the curve weekly.
• 17:05
  A podcast that encourages women to work towards driving a more progressive future.
• 17:09
  And if you haven't already, check out our savings calculator at thecurve.co.nz
• 17:13
  to help you reach your savings goals.