Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Dollar Collapse vs Macro Economy🔥Rebecca Walser INTERVIEW

Transcript

Dollar Collapse vs Macro Economy🔥Rebecca Walser INTERVIEW · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: The dollar is collapsing today, I'll break it down for you.
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: What kind of impact is this going to have on
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: risk assets? There is a lot to unwrap here, let's
• 0:07
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  Speaker 1: out down below and get started. I want to bring
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: in one of our friends of the network, and that
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: of course is Rebecca Walzer, coming in from Wallser Wealth Management.
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: How are you, Rebecca, I'm.
• 0:58
  Speaker 3: Great, Paul, happy to you're glad to be with you again.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: Yeah, nice to see you. Listen, We've got a lot
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: going on right now. The market seems like it is
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: definitely not short of news. You've got another government shut
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: down brewing as we see Snowmageddon hitting. You've got one
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: hundred percent tariffs potentially on Canada, and then they walk
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: it back. You know, you know, Trump is a little
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: taco here, a little taco there. Then of course actively
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: looking to acquire Greenland, the US Armada heading toward Iran.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: Just you know, not a slow news day or news
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: week or news month, let's say news year for now.
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: So a lot happening, for sure. I want to play
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: a clip for you before we get into all the questions.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: And this first clip is the Fed expectations, because you
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: are an expert when it comes to the FED, so
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: I want to hear what you have to say.
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: Let's go to that clip.
• 1:52
  Speaker 4: Unemployment rate came down a little bit, would be still
• 1:55
  Speaker 4: are in a low higher low fire. So I think
• 1:57
  Speaker 4: overall the Fed just wants to stampat field. They've got
• 2:00
  Speaker 4: time to wait and see. And then as I've listened
• 2:03
  Speaker 4: to the commentary from policy makers again, so of the
• 2:06
  Speaker 4: devides ever in the minute still exists. So this feels
• 2:09
  Speaker 4: like a wait and see market or wait and see meeting,
• 2:11
  Speaker 4: and we shall all be listening to see if there's
• 2:13
  Speaker 4: any hint or a bias towards a future action.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: And then as you see the rest of the year
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: play out again, this goes back to who you think
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: is in that role, or maybe it doesn't matter who's
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: in that role.
• 2:23
  Speaker 3: What you think.
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: You know, how many cuts you think we'll have by
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: the end.
• 2:25
  Speaker 4: Of the year, So whoever comes in, I think maybe
• 2:27
  Speaker 4: this year we'll see one more cut, and the market
• 2:30
  Speaker 4: might be pricing a bit more than that.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: All right, so one cut you look at polymarket, not
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: a rosy picture for FED ray cuts. Right there is January.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: Then you can look at the March data, also very
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: high on no change, around eighty percent, and then.
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: All the way into April. Rebecca, what do you make
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: of this?
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: I mean, we've got declining inflation, but there's a lot
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: of uncertainty. You've got this whole issue with Japan, which
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: we'll talk about.
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: What will Powell do in two days?
• 3:02
  Speaker 3: Yeah, So I think that the overall consensus, the FED consensus,
• 3:05
  Speaker 3: is only really around one rate cut. So that's a
• 3:09
  Speaker 3: little scary and alarming if you want cuts, if you
• 3:12
  Speaker 3: think cuts are needed to keep the market going as
• 3:14
  Speaker 3: it is. If you look under the through the weeds,
• 3:16
  Speaker 3: you'll see that twelve of the nineteen members basically you
• 3:21
  Speaker 3: do say they want two cuts, or see that there
• 3:23
  Speaker 3: should be two cuts, but the still median is one cut.
• 3:26
  Speaker 3: At the actual FED, looking at the dot plot and
• 3:29
  Speaker 3: what the members are doing now, the market itself, to
• 3:32
  Speaker 3: Rogers's point, right there, the market itself really is pricing
• 3:35
  Speaker 3: in two cuts, the first really being in the April
• 3:38
  Speaker 3: time frame and the second being in the September timeframe.
• 3:41
  Speaker 3: Right now is kind of where the market looks like
• 3:43
  Speaker 3: it's headed. And that would be probably, I would say
• 3:47
  Speaker 3: probably status quo, meaning that that is not enough of
• 3:50
  Speaker 3: a move on fifty basis points of the downside to
• 3:53
  Speaker 3: really move the economic needle. It's not accommodative to the
• 3:58
  Speaker 3: ones that really want accommodation, dubbish enough. But then to
• 4:02
  Speaker 3: the other point of it is, what do we really
• 4:04
  Speaker 3: need in ways of cuts? You know, you've got the
• 4:06
  Speaker 3: Atlanta Fed now literally projecting a Q four GDP number
• 4:10
  Speaker 3: of five point four percent and projecting twenty twenty six
• 4:14
  Speaker 3: GDP of two point three percent when you have good
• 4:18
  Speaker 3: solid growth at the GDP level and you have inflation
• 4:23
  Speaker 3: that is quasi three percent range ish, which I believe
• 4:28
  Speaker 3: the FED really is going to have to change their
• 4:31
  Speaker 3: mandate and allow for the fact that we have so
• 4:34
  Speaker 3: much expansive debt that we're going to accept have to
• 4:37
  Speaker 3: accept inflation at a higher than two percent rate as
• 4:40
  Speaker 3: part of their mandate, Like, it's impossible to inflate the
• 4:44
  Speaker 3: currency as much as the FED has done as a
• 4:46
  Speaker 3: commodative they've been even since twenty twenty and try to
• 4:48
  Speaker 3: keep inflation at two percent. It's really mathematically almost impossible,
• 4:52
  Speaker 3: I would say impossible. So in this sense of the
• 4:56
  Speaker 3: hawkish tone is like, why do we need a cut
• 4:59
  Speaker 3: and shouldn't we reserve and keep our powder dry for
• 5:03
  Speaker 3: serious economic issues that could creep up in twenty twenty six,
• 5:06
  Speaker 3: specifically as you're looking at potentially reverse carry trade on
• 5:10
  Speaker 3: the yen dollar problem. You know, in twenty twenty five,
• 5:14
  Speaker 3: our dollar basically was the weakest in the first half
• 5:17
  Speaker 3: of the year that had been since nineteen seventy three.
• 5:19
  Speaker 3: We're talking fifty years the weakest dollar performance in twenty
• 5:22
  Speaker 3: twenty five, and that is something that I would be
• 5:25
  Speaker 3: a lot more concerned about maintaining the really efficacy, if
• 5:30
  Speaker 3: you will, of our US dollar now trade with India.
• 5:35
  Speaker 3: Deals like this that get announced this year will be
• 5:37
  Speaker 3: very helpful. But again, will they keep a sea of
• 5:42
  Speaker 3: change that is coming. No, it's not going to be enough,
• 5:45
  Speaker 3: and so would I would be encouraging the FED to
• 5:48
  Speaker 3: reserve their powder. I will say the consensus on the
• 5:52
  Speaker 3: market side is pretty much two to three cuts. I
• 5:54
  Speaker 3: think Moody's has got three cuts. But here's the outlier.
• 5:57
  Speaker 3: JP Morgan is saying zero cuts, Paul zero customer twenty
• 6:02
  Speaker 3: twenty six, and they see an actual rate hike of
• 6:05
  Speaker 3: twenty five biths and twenty twenty seven. So I think
• 6:08
  Speaker 3: JP Morgan. I trust JP Morgan's per opinion. I would
• 6:12
  Speaker 3: say more than general consensus because Diamond has the ear
• 6:17
  Speaker 3: of a lot of insiders.
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: So okay, Well, are you you're not anticipating any rate
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: hike though in the near term or do you feel
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: like these pauses will stay consistent with what many of
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: the analysts are pointing to and it would be later
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: based on how growth might appear.
• 6:35
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that labor data aside labor data coming
• 6:38
  Speaker 3: in really negatively could make a lot of people their
• 6:41
  Speaker 3: hawk is dubvish very fast. But as long as we're
• 6:43
  Speaker 3: getting to Roger's point, he said slow high or slow fire.
• 6:46
  Speaker 3: That's what we're seeing is as layoffs and as retirements
• 6:49
  Speaker 3: are happening, companies are simply not replacing these positions, and
• 6:53
  Speaker 3: that is a little bit of a slower burn on
• 6:56
  Speaker 3: the labor market. So as long as it stays like
• 6:58
  Speaker 3: a slow burn that's easy to kind of paper over,
• 7:02
  Speaker 3: could talk over if you will, then I think that
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: the labor won't be enough of it impetus for people
• 7:07
  Speaker 3: to become more dubbish. You're exactly right, Rebecca.
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: Do you think that the FED position is going to
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: change to the narrative right now? I want to play
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: a clip because this is rumors around Rick Reader and
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: we'll explain who he is here in a second as
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: a part of one of the candidates for the FED chair.
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: Take a look.
• 7:26
  Speaker 5: Listen. I think there's some things that the FED can do,
• 7:29
  Speaker 5: and I think there are so many issues. I've been
• 7:31
  Speaker 5: pretty vocal for many many months. I think the Fed's
• 7:34
  Speaker 5: got to get the rate down. By the way, I
• 7:36
  Speaker 5: don't think I should go down that far, But I
• 7:37
  Speaker 5: think the Fed's got to get the rate down to
• 7:39
  Speaker 5: three percent. I think that's closer to equilibrium in a
• 7:42
  Speaker 5: labor problem. In a situation today, we have what is
• 7:45
  Speaker 5: potentially a labor problem. So I would certainly convey what
• 7:48
  Speaker 5: I think today. You've got to get the rate to
• 7:50
  Speaker 5: three I think you've got it, and then you've got
• 7:52
  Speaker 5: to look at where we are. And so anyway, if asked,
• 7:55
  Speaker 5: that's what I would talk about.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: Do you worry about FED independence?
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: Yes, If you're not even in this conversation, I don't.
• 8:02
  Speaker 5: I mean, you know, at the end of the day,
• 8:04
  Speaker 5: I'm like I say, because I've been around that institution
• 8:06
  Speaker 5: for so many years, I know what the culture is.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: Is it true that you're interviewing this week, this Thursday
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: with the President?
• 8:14
  Speaker 5: I mean I would go right to the market.
• 8:15
  Speaker 3: So I can't.
• 8:16
  Speaker 5: I mean I can't.
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: You won't even contact so I know.
• 8:18
  Speaker 5: All I will say is I've seen a bunch of
• 8:20
  Speaker 5: the stories that have been out today in the press,
• 8:22
  Speaker 5: stories that are out today, they seem reasonably.
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: Accurate, reasonably accurate. That of course is Rick reader coming
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: in from Blackrock. If you look at the poly market,
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: I'll zoom in on that for you. You've got Reader
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: leading the crew right now at forty seven percent likelihood.
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: Kevin Warsh, here's the point I'm I wanted to get at.
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: If Reader comes in, who is very pro Trump likelihood,
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: as we could see a knee jerk ray cut, would
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: that kind of throw a wrench into everybody's analysis of
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: this year for ray cuts or not.
• 9:00
  Speaker 3: One thousand percent because that's not priced into any of either.
• 9:03
  Speaker 3: The FED is not priced into the FED, and it's
• 9:05
  Speaker 3: certainly not priced into the market. The market is expecting
• 9:07
  Speaker 3: to and kind of a wait and see after all
• 9:10
  Speaker 3: of Q one to even get the first one. That's
• 9:12
  Speaker 3: kind of where the market is sort of pige and hold,
• 9:15
  Speaker 3: and I'm glad for that, by the way, you know, Paul,
• 9:17
  Speaker 3: I don't like it when the market's ahead of its skis,
• 9:19
  Speaker 3: like I think it was in twenty twenty four. We
• 9:20
  Speaker 3: were saying there's going to be four cuts in twenty
• 9:22
  Speaker 3: twenty five, and you saw how that went. And that's
• 9:24
  Speaker 3: the problem When the market expects it before we're ready
• 9:27
  Speaker 3: for we're ahead of our skis, and that means it's
• 9:29
  Speaker 3: nothing but a leutdown, right. So I think if we
• 9:32
  Speaker 3: got a super Trumpian FED chair and they decided to
• 9:36
  Speaker 3: be a combinative and dubbish immediately. I do think that
• 9:40
  Speaker 3: that would create It would probably create and stir economic
• 9:44
  Speaker 3: ingenuity and fast paced things rapid fire, But how is
• 9:48
  Speaker 3: that sustainable? Like, my question is what we're dealing We
• 9:52
  Speaker 3: have a new problem and we're trying to use the
• 9:54
  Speaker 3: old tools to fix a new problem. And what's our
• 9:57
  Speaker 3: new problem? Our new problem is that we are at
• 9:59
  Speaker 3: the very beginning a monetization of the Fourth Industrial Revolution,
• 10:02
  Speaker 3: and it is going to meet is going to result
• 10:06
  Speaker 3: in less need for human capital. That is full stop effect, Like,
• 10:12
  Speaker 3: until we can get our heads around how do we
• 10:15
  Speaker 3: incorporate that fact into FED policy, How do we incorporate
• 10:20
  Speaker 3: that fact into the labor mandate? How do we address
• 10:22
  Speaker 3: and acknowledge that fact as we're setting monetary policy. We're
• 10:26
  Speaker 3: going to continue down the road of trying to fix
• 10:29
  Speaker 3: new problems with the new way of living digitally and
• 10:33
  Speaker 3: in the crypto world with old tools that I'm going
• 10:37
  Speaker 3: to say pretty much don't really work anymore. And we
• 10:40
  Speaker 3: really saw this come out Paul and the Clarity Act
• 10:43
  Speaker 3: negotiations in the Senate. You had, you know, the House
• 10:46
  Speaker 3: passed it no problem. We already have the Genius Act,
• 10:49
  Speaker 3: we already have the stable Coin way Forward. And now
• 10:51
  Speaker 3: we have banks and all of these people coming in
• 10:54
  Speaker 3: and trying to figure out how they can still maintain
• 10:57
  Speaker 3: their relevancy in a digital crypto currency see world New
• 11:01
  Speaker 3: World Order. And I'm sorry that's a problem. We cannot
• 11:04
  Speaker 3: try to move into the future framed by the past
• 11:08
  Speaker 3: and with the frame of the past as a boundary.
• 11:10
  Speaker 3: It's not going to work. It will fail. And if
• 11:12
  Speaker 3: the United States does that, they're going to get left
• 11:15
  Speaker 3: behind to all the countries that are innovative, that are saying,
• 11:18
  Speaker 3: let's unleash the capitalistic spirit of how this is going
• 11:22
  Speaker 3: to go, animal spirits around digital blockchain technology. That's what
• 11:27
  Speaker 3: we need. This is the president for that, by the way.
• 11:30
  Speaker 3: But these banks and the bank lobby, My god, are
• 11:33
  Speaker 3: they strong. They are so powerful they are well.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: I'm so glad to see you excited about this, Rebecca,
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: because you're exactly right. I mean, we've been going at
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: this left and right. But it does put the issue
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: around the consistency at the FED. And I think if
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: you look at whether it's reader or you go to
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: Kevin Walsh, maybe which one of these two would you
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: choose if you.
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: Were well.
• 11:56
  Speaker 3: Not on this, Well it is He's there four percent.
• 12:00
  Speaker 3: That is my choice. That is my vote. I think
• 12:02
  Speaker 3: he would be the best advocate, and I think he
• 12:05
  Speaker 3: has the best economic handle, and I do believe that
• 12:07
  Speaker 3: he is so good for the administration on getting Trump's
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: message out there, Trump's economic message. He is their best
• 12:15
  Speaker 3: spokesperson by far if you look at what his comments
• 12:17
  Speaker 3: were in Davos. And so that's my vote. I hope
• 12:20
  Speaker 3: he gets it. But I know he's an outlier.
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: Okay, well, all right, so to let's kind of go
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: a little bit on the counter side of that, And that,
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: of course is if Bessont goes in or if Reader
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: goes in, I mean you, essentially, I feel like you
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: would lose FED independence. So would you be at all
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: concerned with that? Or do you feel like, hey, the
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: FED doesn't matter. It's you know, it's just it's a
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: you know, it's a figurehead for the market.
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: We should be you know, maned.
• 12:47
  Speaker 3: I definitely don't think that the FED doesn't matter. I
• 12:49
  Speaker 3: do think that Trump wants his man in there, and
• 12:52
  Speaker 3: I do think that whoever it is will establish their
• 12:54
  Speaker 3: independence pretty quickly. By just saying, look, this is a
• 12:57
  Speaker 3: ten year appointment. This outlives the presidents from three last
• 13:01
  Speaker 3: years of his last administration, since he's been two years already.
• 13:04
  Speaker 3: So I do think you would see them showing some
• 13:06
  Speaker 3: independence pretty quickly, especially realizing that they're in there way
• 13:09
  Speaker 3: beyond Trump.
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: All right. I like that, all right.
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: So a couple other things you got to look at,
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: of course, is the possibility of yin intervention. And when
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: you consider what's going on in Japan right now, the
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: US is selling dollars buying YenS. This is basically the
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: support what's going on within that market. Many people would
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: say this is unwinding the reverse carry trade, which has
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: been one of the biggest concerns we've seen around the
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: dollar overall.
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: What does this do to risk assets? What does this
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: do to gold in the coming few months.
• 13:39
  Speaker 3: It's interesting because if you have a reverse carry trade
• 13:42
  Speaker 3: and you do start to see really big equity shifts
• 13:45
  Speaker 3: down shifts like we did, like for example, the flash crush,
• 13:47
  Speaker 3: I would say of August of twenty twenty four, you
• 13:50
  Speaker 3: will see people do a flight to safety. You will
• 13:52
  Speaker 3: see people fly to the risk off assets which are
• 13:55
  Speaker 3: obviously considered gold, silver, some people would add bitcoin in there.
• 13:58
  Speaker 3: You could argue one way or the other. I do
• 14:01
  Speaker 3: believe that gold and silver have a longer runway. You
• 14:04
  Speaker 3: know that Goldman Sachs raised their guidance last week for
• 14:07
  Speaker 3: gold for twenty twenty six from forty nine hundred to
• 14:09
  Speaker 3: fifty four hundred, and I thought that was very interesting
• 14:12
  Speaker 3: because they did it the day before it hit forty
• 14:14
  Speaker 3: nine hundred. So in other words, when I'm saying here,
• 14:17
  Speaker 3: Paul is even the experts at Goldman Sachs can't really
• 14:20
  Speaker 3: predict how fast hyperbolic parabolic gold is going until these
• 14:25
  Speaker 3: kinds of iterations happen, and then they say, oh, oh, we
• 14:27
  Speaker 3: got to change our four guests for the year and
• 14:29
  Speaker 3: the marry. Next day it goes, we'll change it again,
• 14:31
  Speaker 3: We'll change it again. So I am such a huge believer.
• 14:36
  Speaker 3: I'm a really weird dichotomy. Call me a hybrid because
• 14:39
  Speaker 3: I love the blockchain, but I recognize and realize that
• 14:43
  Speaker 3: as we move to the blockchain digital currency, we always
• 14:47
  Speaker 3: will be tethered to a hard asset somehow, and that
• 14:51
  Speaker 3: hard asset, you know, is going to be gold and silver.
• 14:55
  Speaker 3: These are biblical, they're historical, they're in the Old Testament,
• 14:57
  Speaker 3: the gold is mind and silver as mindsets the Lord Hagaichu.
• 15:00
  Speaker 3: That is biblical. So people will always say, Okay, I
• 15:05
  Speaker 3: believe in this digital currency, I believe in the blockchain. However,
• 15:08
  Speaker 3: I'm going to hedge my security with a tether to
• 15:11
  Speaker 3: hard assets. And we need that, Paul, We need that
• 15:14
  Speaker 3: because we especially as we tokenize asset classes. When you
• 15:18
  Speaker 3: tokenize your runts again getting or deriving, it's a derivative.
• 15:22
  Speaker 3: You're deriving the value of a token from the underlying
• 15:25
  Speaker 3: value of the asset. It's tokenizing. So anytime you start
• 15:28
  Speaker 3: looking at financial derivatives, this is where we get into
• 15:31
  Speaker 3: the problem of that we went to with the Global
• 15:34
  Speaker 3: Financial Crisis or GFC. Too big to fail. Wow, you
• 15:37
  Speaker 3: just have too many assets. We can't let you fail. Well,
• 15:39
  Speaker 3: that's countries now, that is literally sovereign nations too big
• 15:43
  Speaker 3: to fail. Yet they have printed so much currency debt
• 15:46
  Speaker 3: FIAT not backed by anything that there will have to
• 15:50
  Speaker 3: be And this is really what is happening. We have
• 15:51
  Speaker 3: the central banks of the world. Last year we had
• 15:53
  Speaker 3: the largest deliveries of actual physical metals and recorded time ever.
• 15:59
  Speaker 3: Central banks are taking delivery. They're saying we need to
• 16:02
  Speaker 3: have assets tethered to hard true metals, true true value,
• 16:05
  Speaker 3: and so as we digitize and tokenize more and more
• 16:08
  Speaker 3: and more, that is always going to revert back to
• 16:11
  Speaker 3: what is the true value of a troy ounce of gold,
• 16:14
  Speaker 3: Like we need to know that that is a burama
• 16:15
  Speaker 3: in the stand that will never die. And anyone that
• 16:18
  Speaker 3: thinks that it's going to be completely tokenization digitization is
• 16:21
  Speaker 3: missing the point that people still need a tether to
• 16:23
  Speaker 3: a real hard asset.
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: Do you think though, that the token is Obviously we're
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: already seeing tokenized gold be very successful. We haven't seen
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: that tokenised silver just yet be as successful as whether
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: it's pack those gold or x aut tether gold. But
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: do you think that tokenized gold is going to outpace
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: bitcoin in terms of right now mainstream adoption over the
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: especially with what's happening in the market right now and
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: maybe into the near future.
• 16:52
  Speaker 3: It's possible, because I think that these are two different questions.
• 16:55
  Speaker 3: You know, if you ask, hey, do you want to
• 16:57
  Speaker 3: be a participant in the Fourth Industrial Revolution, you go
• 16:59
  Speaker 3: by the granddaddy of them all, Bitcoin BTC obviously, or
• 17:03
  Speaker 3: do you say to yourself, you know what I really
• 17:05
  Speaker 3: want to be tethered to hard asset, and I want
• 17:08
  Speaker 3: to play on the hard asset side, and that's the
• 17:10
  Speaker 3: safety I perceive. Even if it's in an electronic tokenization form,
• 17:14
  Speaker 3: it's better it's tethered to a real true asset that
• 17:18
  Speaker 3: is that exists, right, It's it's fungible, it's tangible, we
• 17:21
  Speaker 3: can touch it. And so it's a very interesting question,
• 17:25
  Speaker 3: but they are really two different answers, or two different questions.
• 17:28
  Speaker 3: Why would I buy BTC over why would I buy
• 17:30
  Speaker 3: tokenized gold? And I think that one's a safety play
• 17:33
  Speaker 3: and one's a risk play, even though a lot of
• 17:35
  Speaker 3: people think that bitcoin is not a risk. Just the
• 17:38
  Speaker 3: fact that we can't even get a regulatory framework agree
• 17:41
  Speaker 3: to because of the big banks around the Clarity Act,
• 17:44
  Speaker 3: the fact that that's stalled tells us that we still
• 17:47
  Speaker 3: do not know exactly how the United States government is
• 17:49
  Speaker 3: going to deal with tokenized assets. And I can tell
• 17:52
  Speaker 3: you if it's anything that threatens banking, which we know
• 17:55
  Speaker 3: the Genius Act absolutely was a direct fift banking as
• 17:57
  Speaker 3: it should be. Right now, this is this is ridicul listeness.
• 18:00
  Speaker 3: We're trying to take away any kind of yield for
• 18:03
  Speaker 3: holding stable coins. Like what we're trying to take away
• 18:08
  Speaker 3: benefits for people that are on the blockchain with crypto,
• 18:11
  Speaker 3: with stable coins. This is the depths of the extreme
• 18:15
  Speaker 3: nature they're going to go to to try to make
• 18:17
  Speaker 3: sure that we go into the future framed by their past,
• 18:20
  Speaker 3: framed by them. And I'm sorry, this is a message
• 18:23
  Speaker 3: banks either get on board or you're going to get
• 18:27
  Speaker 3: left behind. It's just a fact. It might take five years,
• 18:29
  Speaker 3: you might slow it down, but you will not stop it.
• 18:31
  Speaker 3: It is coming. It is here period well.
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: And I think the point being is that this becomes
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: such a global scale and if you look at some
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: of the things that have already started to happen outside
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: the parameters of the US, which gets into what you're
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: talking about, which is, you know, the over and I
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: think the overbearing bank industry. But you look at growth
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: in general, it all generates around trade. I want to
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: play a clip for you, Rebecca. This is Ursula Vonderlind
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: talking about the deal with India.
• 18:59
  Speaker 6: Take a look, and right after Davos the next weekend,
• 19:06
  Speaker 6: I will travel to India.
• 19:09
  Speaker 3: There's still work to.
• 19:11
  Speaker 6: Do, but we are on the cusp of a historic
• 19:15
  Speaker 6: trade agreement. Indeed, some call it the mother of all deals,
• 19:20
  Speaker 6: one that would create a market of two billion people,
• 19:26
  Speaker 6: accounting for almost a quarter of global GDP, and crucially
• 19:32
  Speaker 6: that would provide a first mover advantage for Europe with
• 19:36
  Speaker 6: one of the world's fastest growing and most dynamic continents.
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: All right, so there you have it.
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: I mean, you and I think the EU of course
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: has been watching what's going on obviously with the US,
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: which it gets into you know, a lot of this
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: isolationism that's going around. You look at the powers that
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: China of course is trying to position, and then of
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: course you have Russia to and the same thing. India
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: is saying, hey, maybe this is our way to become
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: a global power, going into.
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: These deals with the EU. What do you make of this?
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: Do you think this has.
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: Any impact on the global macro side when it comes
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: to market assets.
• 20:16
  Speaker 3: I mean, there's no doubt. In the last five years, really,
• 20:20
  Speaker 3: I would even say exponentially since the pandemic, we have
• 20:23
  Speaker 3: seen bilateral trade happen in countries that have never happened before,
• 20:26
  Speaker 3: trading intomestic currencies India, Russia, India, China, China, Russia, like
• 20:31
  Speaker 3: these things are happening now and bypassing the US dollar.
• 20:35
  Speaker 3: And concredibly, it does speak to the arrogance of the
• 20:40
  Speaker 3: EU to have waited to really make India a priority
• 20:45
  Speaker 3: until sort of seeing the United States say, you know what,
• 20:48
  Speaker 3: India is a strategic partner and they are also a
• 20:51
  Speaker 3: partner of Russia. Obviously, you know, Trump has a really
• 20:54
  Speaker 3: big problem with the amount of gas that Russia is
• 20:57
  Speaker 3: an India, the deals that they're doing there. So it's
• 21:01
  Speaker 3: just like they're so late to every party. You know,
• 21:03
  Speaker 3: they don't really believe in commerce. But when they start
• 21:06
  Speaker 3: to see the United States say, oh, we're going to
• 21:08
  Speaker 3: have a bi directional trade agreement directly with India. Wait, wait,
• 21:14
  Speaker 3: we better hurry up and send ursula over to India.
• 21:17
  Speaker 3: Get this steal done. So it's frustrating because I think
• 21:20
  Speaker 3: the EU could be so much more of an economic powerhouse,
• 21:22
  Speaker 3: but they pretty much buy into no offense, but they
• 21:26
  Speaker 3: buy into the green We don't want nuclear energy. Germany
• 21:29
  Speaker 3: shut down their nuclear power plans, they have to reinstitute them.
• 21:32
  Speaker 3: They have no energy there, completely rely on important energy
• 21:35
  Speaker 3: because of this belief in this green system that kills
• 21:39
  Speaker 3: all capitalism, and so they are so derelict in their
• 21:43
  Speaker 3: own demise. They are the creators of their own demise,
• 21:47
  Speaker 3: because they really are believe that they're not. They're socialists.
• 21:50
  Speaker 3: They do not believe in capitalism, and everything around it
• 21:53
  Speaker 3: is containment of capitalism enough so that we can still
• 21:57
  Speaker 3: live and not be communistic. And so I wish that
• 22:00
  Speaker 3: all the luck in the world. But until they really
• 22:02
  Speaker 3: get serious about being economically productive, I don't think the
• 22:07
  Speaker 3: EU is going to do themselves any favors. No matter
• 22:09
  Speaker 3: what you do.
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: Well, I mean, yeah, they've self regulated themselves out of
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: the world stage for sure. Obviously the energy side of
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: it has been a big deal. Peter Schiff made a
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: statement that Trump has it backwards.
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: The US doesn't subsidize the world. The world subsidized the US.
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: This course is talking about the dollar reserve status, where
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: you live beyond our means. Soaring debt, tariffs, et cetera.
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: Military threats shopardize the status. When it's lost, economic collapse
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: will follow. When you look at that. Peter's been talking
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: about this for a while.
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: It's not new.
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: Maybe he is finally caught up with the times that
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: we are seeing this kind of pressure, or do you
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: get something to where maybe you have a complete pivot
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: into the US dollar, looking at another way.
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: To backstop it, whether it's through.
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: Stable coins, gold, you know, obviously some of these digital assets.
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: What would you say about what Peter's talking about.
• 23:04
  Speaker 3: They credit They Atlanta Fed credits the five point four
• 23:07
  Speaker 3: percent fourth quarter GDP to a forty percent drop in
• 23:11
  Speaker 3: our trade imbalance. So there is no doubt that the
• 23:14
  Speaker 3: short term impact of the tariffs have reduced our trade
• 23:18
  Speaker 3: deficits and increased our increased our GDP. Now, whether or
• 23:22
  Speaker 3: not that can be sustained, you know, Paul, over the
• 23:25
  Speaker 3: long term, and whether or not countries will not implement
• 23:28
  Speaker 3: counter moves like China exporting their honey to a different
• 23:33
  Speaker 3: country and labeling it there like these there, they're always
• 23:36
  Speaker 3: in the law. We call it the law of unintended consequences. No,
• 23:39
  Speaker 3: if I pass something, you'll do it that way for
• 23:41
  Speaker 3: at first, until you can figure out how to circumvent
• 23:44
  Speaker 3: that rule. So that's what we're going to see in
• 23:46
  Speaker 3: twenty twenty six. We'll see circumvention and we'll see then
• 23:49
  Speaker 3: how actual real. But what all Trump has done is said, hey,
• 23:53
  Speaker 3: look this is the deal. This is the global deal
• 23:54
  Speaker 3: we have where it's still the world's reserve currency. We
• 23:56
  Speaker 3: don't like exactly how you're getting more benefit than we
• 23:59
  Speaker 3: are right now, So we're going to tear af you
• 24:01
  Speaker 3: and get more of the benefit on our side. And
• 24:03
  Speaker 3: let's be honest, like NATO countries really weren't paying the
• 24:06
  Speaker 3: support in and that really was predominantly ninety plus percent
• 24:10
  Speaker 3: funded by the United States, So that is not inaccurate.
• 24:13
  Speaker 3: When he stands on the world stage and he says
• 24:14
  Speaker 3: these things, he's not wrong. It's just that the fact
• 24:17
  Speaker 3: that we are the world's reserve currency is what has
• 24:19
  Speaker 3: enabled us to be in that position, and he's just
• 24:22
  Speaker 3: using economic tariffs as a power play strategically. If you
• 24:25
  Speaker 3: read the Art of the deal, this is what he does.
• 24:27
  Speaker 3: He will go out and say one hundred percent tariff
• 24:29
  Speaker 3: so that everyone can freak out and say, oh my gosh,
• 24:31
  Speaker 3: that's unsustainable. So he can come back and say no, no, no,
• 24:34
  Speaker 3: forty percent, and so then they can say, oh, forty percent,
• 24:36
  Speaker 3: maybe we can work with that, when if he had
• 24:38
  Speaker 3: said forty percent from the beginning, it would have literally
• 24:41
  Speaker 3: come in and been negotiated down to twenty five. So
• 24:43
  Speaker 3: he gives us these hyperbolic statements so that people can
• 24:46
  Speaker 3: freak out, negotiation can take place, and then he can
• 24:48
  Speaker 3: get to a point that he really wanted in the
• 24:50
  Speaker 3: first place. And people just need to understand this is
• 24:53
  Speaker 3: how he operates. He threatens with a big stick to
• 24:56
  Speaker 3: get you to the negotiating table on a real basis.
• 24:59
  Speaker 3: Otherwise we would never be talking about forty percent tariffs
• 25:01
  Speaker 3: on anybody because people feel like that's ridiculous.
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: I want to go into one last thing before we
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: do our poll here for the audience. But you've got
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: this Crypto is poised right now maybe for rebalancing boost.
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: You've seen gold and silver absolutely just exploding and still
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: in price discovery right now. Before I go into the
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: point of where do you think crypto is heading? Are
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: we at the bottom, Rebecca, or do you think that
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: we're still in price to discovery zone for the precious metals?
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: What's your position right now?
• 25:34
  Speaker 3: Gosh, oh gosh, These predictions are so hard because my
• 25:38
  Speaker 3: mind goes in five thousand directions at the same time.
• 25:40
  Speaker 3: I mean, on the cryptocurrencies, I think, and I've been
• 25:43
  Speaker 3: saying this for years and it's so sad, but it's
• 25:45
  Speaker 3: going to take year's Paul, until we get final regulatory framework.
• 25:49
  Speaker 3: There's still a risk case for you know, just in
• 25:51
  Speaker 3: general cryptocurrency, is it here to stay? Yes, it is.
• 25:54
  Speaker 3: Should you invest in it on the long term, absolutely, absolutely,
• 25:58
  Speaker 3: without a doubt. But as we move into functionality, as
• 26:01
  Speaker 3: we moved into payment processing functionality where it's competing. If
• 26:04
  Speaker 3: you look at some of the deals that Visa and
• 26:06
  Speaker 3: Apple have made just so that they so Apple doesn't
• 26:09
  Speaker 3: compete against Visa directly, it's amazing some of the things
• 26:12
  Speaker 3: that these companies have done to remain relevant payment processors.
• 26:16
  Speaker 3: So I am so interested to see how this frames out.
• 26:19
  Speaker 3: But I will tell you that they we know now
• 26:22
  Speaker 3: that they will use regulation and laws to control and
• 26:26
  Speaker 3: to control the digital blockchain, and that is a big
• 26:29
  Speaker 3: problem because it needed to be decentralized finance this whole time.
• 26:32
  Speaker 3: So that is what I will say about crypto. It's
• 26:34
  Speaker 3: still a risk case that we are. It's an unknown
• 26:37
  Speaker 3: question mark because the regulatory framework is not completely done
• 26:39
  Speaker 3: and we can see how banks are really fighting against
• 26:41
  Speaker 3: the clarity actor, fighting for their lobbying interests. On the
• 26:45
  Speaker 3: gold side and price discovery, Listen, you know, there have
• 26:50
  Speaker 3: been a lot of reverse engineered mathematics applied to what
• 26:54
  Speaker 3: good should gold actually be at when it was established
• 26:57
  Speaker 3: at thirty you know, thirty five dollars. You know you
• 27:01
  Speaker 3: can change your dollar for yeah, exactly thirty five dollars
• 27:04
  Speaker 3: of troy ounce. And the truth is is that if
• 27:07
  Speaker 3: you really knew what gold should be priced at, because
• 27:10
  Speaker 3: of the amount of actual inflation of currencies, if you
• 27:13
  Speaker 3: go back to nineteen forty four Breton was agreement, you
• 27:16
  Speaker 3: will you would be you would think that the numbers
• 27:19
  Speaker 3: that we're training at right now are peanuts. We have
• 27:23
  Speaker 3: massively inflated paper currency and the only true tether is
• 27:28
  Speaker 3: literally metals. And this is why we have no no,
• 27:33
  Speaker 3: we have such obfuscation around what is actually at Fort
• 27:37
  Speaker 3: Knox and what is the last time we've done an
• 27:39
  Speaker 3: actual audit, and how much gold is there actually in
• 27:42
  Speaker 3: the world, and how much silver can we actually produce,
• 27:44
  Speaker 3: and how much of it it's going to be taken
• 27:45
  Speaker 3: up for industrialized uses and how much it can be
• 27:47
  Speaker 3: used for metals. That price discovery is not done by
• 27:52
  Speaker 3: any starch of the imagination, because I'm going to tell
• 27:54
  Speaker 3: you the central banks of the world do not want
• 27:55
  Speaker 3: the world to know. They don't want to know, they
• 27:58
  Speaker 3: don't want us to know how much they've inflated all
• 28:00
  Speaker 3: of their domestic currencies and especially the US dollar. So
• 28:03
  Speaker 3: this price discovery has only begun.
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think people are waking up to this clearly.
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: Just if you look at the chart of gold and silver,
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: it is a wake up call I think around this.
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: And of course this gets into risk assets, and the
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: thing that affects risk assets to your point, has been
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: regulatory framework. That's a big one. Here's the poll. Another
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: government shut down looming. Polymarket is saying government shutdown to
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: odds are increasing around eighty percent if the US shuts down.
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: Is this bullish for crypto as a bet against DC
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: What would you say?
• 28:37
  Speaker 5: No?
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: Just bitcoin, No, crypto is down and bottom is in.
• 28:44
  Speaker 3: I don't know if we can say the bottom is in,
• 28:45
  Speaker 3: because I do expect if we had any kind of
• 28:47
  Speaker 3: geopolitical war escalation, and I mean, you know, in any
• 28:51
  Speaker 3: capacity one exactly more of a blocks one. So the
• 28:56
  Speaker 3: bottom is not in the event of a block swan.
• 28:58
  Speaker 3: But you know, anytime the government shuts down, that's uncertainty.
• 29:02
  Speaker 3: The markets don't like uncertainty, but I do think that
• 29:04
  Speaker 3: uncertainty is usually good for crypto. For the most part,
• 29:08
  Speaker 3: we have seen bitcoin obviously pulled back in the last year.
• 29:11
  Speaker 3: But for the most part, I think that being unsure
• 29:15
  Speaker 3: and the markets usually means people are looking for alternatives,
• 29:17
  Speaker 3: and obviously Crypto has benefited from that. I still just
• 29:20
  Speaker 3: want a full solid use case of a full blown
• 29:23
  Speaker 3: recession or a full blown box on and see how
• 29:25
  Speaker 3: crypto performs during it. But I actually don't want that
• 29:28
  Speaker 3: to happen, so I don't really want it. But at
• 29:30
  Speaker 3: the same time, I do want it for historical references,
• 29:32
  Speaker 3: so we can really say, hey, this is how it
• 29:34
  Speaker 3: performed when we really had a big market equity pullback,
• 29:37
  Speaker 3: and that's all we need.
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think you look at Gosh, we've had
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: a lot of grace ones. It feels like in reality
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: you look at Ukraine, and then of course obviously with
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: the elections, then you've got all these other things going
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: on right now with ICE. I mean, it's getting a
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: little crazy out there, so that's true. I'm going to say, yes,
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: bottom is in. Nope, Crypto is doom.
• 30:00
  Speaker 3: I like it, And this is your poll now, No,
• 30:04
  Speaker 3: only go six votes yet, so let's give it some time.
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: We'll see people are not liking the government alignment because
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: it does start to put a lot of pressure on
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: risk assets, which is what we have seen here recently,
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: obviously with a bitcoin chart and the Ethereum chart.
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: If you're following that much, listen.
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: If you guys want to find out more about what
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: Rebecca is doing, she's got a great company over there
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: with Walls or wealth Management. You can check it out.
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: Just search Walls or Wealth Management out there. You'll find
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: her and her crew doing great things out there. Rebecca,
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: thanks for coming in today. We appreciate it.
• 30:35
  Speaker 3: Thank you for having me. Great to be with you.
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: If you like this video, like and subscribe, drop a
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: comment down below, and also join our free private member group.
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: The link is in the description