Latest / Trumponomics / 52: Ever Since Texting, It's Been Downhill for the U.S. Economy

Transcript

52: Ever Since Texting, It's Been Downhill for the U.S. Economy · Trumponomics

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Brought to you by stage Summit Live, the virtual conference
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: that provides all the highlights of Stage Summit from the
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: convenience of your desk, celebrity entrepreneurs in safle workshops absolutely free.
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: Register at Stage Summit livestream dot com. Only about ten
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: percent of Americans sent text messages on the cell phones. Wait, Dan,
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: are you sure about that? That sounds kind of well?
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: I was thirteen years ago. Hi, and welcome back to
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Benchmark, a show about the global economy. It's Thursday August.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: I'm Daniel Moss, executive editor for Economics of Bloomberg in
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: New York. I'm joined today by my co host, Scott Landman,
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: an economics editor in Washington. Hey Dan, how's it going.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: Here's an amazing statistic. Only about ten percent of Americans
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: sent text messages on their cell phones. That's got phone
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: companies like Verizon and A ten T plenty worried. Wait, Dan,
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: are you sure about that? That sounds kind of well?
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: I was thirteen years ago. That was the subject of
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: a perfectly serious Bloomberg News story from two thousand and
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: three that lamented how Americans were laggers. In the wondrous
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: new text messaging technology. Think about it. Back then, Mark
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: Zuckerberg was still at Harvard toying with an app he
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: called facemash. He didn't launch Facebook until six months after
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: we published that two thousand and three story on text messaging. Yeah,
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: it's amazing how fast things have changed in that field.
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: Now we have apps that let you rent your home
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: to strangers from the internet. Driverless cars aren't just on
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: the horizon, they're they're being tested now in Pittsburgh. What
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: we heard recently true enough. But step back just a
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: little bit and you can come to a different perspective
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: on the pace of technological change. For all that Airbnbs
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: and Uber seems to be life changing, they aren't actually
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: adding a lot to American productivity growth, not at any
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: rate the way the invention of the automobile, electric lights,
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: and indoor plumbing had on the impact of civilization as
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: a whole. That's according to Robert Gordon, a professor at
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: Northwestern University and the author of The Rise and Fall
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: of American Growth, published this year. Now, that's not to
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: say America's economy, which is much maligned for its quote
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: unquote slow recovery, is going to start growing and it
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: doesn't mean the unemployment rate won't continue to inch lower.
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: It just means that all these new technologies that we
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: have that we've come to think of as so amazing, aren't,
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: in the broad historical sweep, doing a lot for us.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: Professor Gordon joins us. Now, hello, professor, it's great to
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: have you. I'm looking at a copy of the book
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: in the studio here, and it's massive. It's almost as
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: much of a physical weapon as Paquetti's tone inequality. Now,
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: Paquetti captured the zeitgeist of the moment with that, and
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: you seem to have done that same thing this year.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: We seem to heed daily from FED officials and prominent
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: economists like Larry Summers about quote secular stagnation, unquote, declining productivity,
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: low and neutral rates and so on. But you know,
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: it's easy to forget the economy has been expanding since
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: two thousand and nine. But professor, that's not your point.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: Right now, We've had this paradox of rapid growth and
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: employment fifteen million new jobs since two thousand and nine,
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: and at the same time the growth and output has
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: been very slow. While the resolution of that is very simple.
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: We have rapid growth in hours of work, slow growth
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: and output per hour. Put them together and you get
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: slow growth in output that is usually called real GDP.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: When you introduced me, you mentioned that innovation is not
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: paid off. That's not actually true. We've had a great
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: revival of productivity back in the period between two thousand
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: and five, associated with the utter conversion of business methods
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: from the old days of the typewriter, file cabinet piles
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: of paper to the world of personal computers, spreadsheet and
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: word processing software, and then the internet, search engines and
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: e commerce. So we did get a big productivity payoff
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: of the first round of the digital revolution back in
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: the nineteen eighties and nineties. What's happened in the last
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: ten years is that the conversion to that new world
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: of personal computers and laptops um and getting rid of
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: the paper, the conversion from card catalogs and paper catalogs
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: to electronic catalogs that's primarily been finished. We've made our
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: transition to a t M machines for getting cash, bar
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: code scanning for checking out of the supermarket. That's all
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: happened more than ten years ago. So it's the lack
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: of really profound economy wide impacting innovation in the past
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: few years. That's been the problem. How did those profound
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: economy wide innovations actually impact the economy in the period
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: of eighteen seventy nine, as you talked about in your book, Well,
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: those were the the innovations that completely altered the way
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: people lived. We started out in eighteen seventy with a
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: country where almost half the workforce was working on farms
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: as farm owners or farm laborers. We had in the
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: seventy years from eighteen seventy and nineteen forty and then
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: on through nineteen seventy we had electricity that made possible
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: electric light elevators, the urban city with its density, portable
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: and fixed electric tools of all sorts in every industry,
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: the internal combustion engine, motor cars, air transport, the invention
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: of entertainment and communication devices like the telephone, radio, phonograph, movies,
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: and television. And the utter change in life expectancy that
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: came when we learned about the importance of germs, of
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: cleaning up, of having running water and sewage disposal. All
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: those things happened during that relatively short period, and they
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: were a much more profound change in the way people
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: live than what's going on now with a smartphone. So
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: it's not that Airbnb and Uber and Twitter are unuseful.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: Your point is it just doesn't give us that big
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: oph that this other stuff did. An Uber driver as
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: a driver in a car, just like a taxi driver
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: as a driver in a car, you don't get any
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: increase in productivity. You do get an increase in consumer
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: convenience UH and you do substantially increase the availability of
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: UH ride services when Uber will go into parts of
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: town that the taxis don't serve. So it's a bonus
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: for the consumer. And what we're seeing with social networks
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: and all the different uses of smartphones is an improvement
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: in consumer welfare. That's not part of our GDP statistics
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: and not part of business productivity. When you're trading pictures
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: with your friends through Facebook or Instagram or Snapchat, you're
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: not creating business output that generates productivity or wages. So
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: that disconnect between total economy, productivity and the consumers well
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: being is an old, old issue that goes all the
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: way back to things like running water and the transition
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: from the horse to the motor car. We've always missed
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: some of the benefits of inventions that consumers enjoy. Let's
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: talk a little bit more about something you just mentioned,
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: running water and indoor plumbing. Do you think they get
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: the credit that they deserved in terms of technological breakthroughs.
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's difficult to conceive people going on about
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: that at cocktail parties in Brooklyn or San Francisco. Well,
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: we've had we've had indoor bathrooms now for a hundred years,
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: so people take them for granted, and people take for
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: granted most of the things I mentioned that we're invented
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: in that special century between eighteen seventy and nineteen seventy.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: But that century really does stand out when you compare
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: it with anything that happened before eighteen seventy or what's
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: happened since nineteen seventy. Look at the kitchen, all the
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: home appliances that we now enjoy, we're part of the
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: standard kitchen of the nineteen seventies or even the nineteen fifties,
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: with the exception of a single device called the microwave oven,
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: which came in in the nineteen seventies and nineteen eighties.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: We've had a lot of things that we take for
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: granted now and that we'd hate to have to give
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: up if they weren't there. Okay, a quick word from
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: our sponsor. Brought to you by Sage Summit Live, the
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: virtual conference that provides all the highlights of Stage Summit
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: from the convenience of your desk, celebrity entrepreneurs, inciple workshops
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: absolutely free. Register at Stage Summit livestream dot com and
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: we're back, Professor. Is there any chance that we could
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: be on the cusp of another great century similar to
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: the one you describe. We're just not seeing the signs
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: of it yet. I'm very cautious. I don't predict out
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: fifty or a hundred years. I do limit my predictions
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: to twenty five years. And I think most of the
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: innovation and technology that's going to be permeating through the
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: economy over the next twenty five years is already evident.
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: We have robots, we have artificial intelligence, computers are learning
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: how to think, We have three D printing, and we
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: have the autonomous vehicle, with a lot of hoopla and
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: prediction of a very near term conversion to autonomous vehicles,
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: autonomous trucks, taxis, and cars. We have a lot of
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: fear mongering that the robots are going to take over
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: all the jobs. But if we look around us, go
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: through your daily life and count how many robots you meet,
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: it's very few, and in most days of my life
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: it's done. As a matter of fact, our local supermarket
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: is just in the process of taking out these self
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: checkout machines um and going back to relying entirely on
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: human cashiers. I'm not sure why they're doing that, but
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: it is a sign that computer driven technology is not
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: every probably probably because those things didn't work so well.
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: They've been there for years, and they're very handy when
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: you have a very small amount of just two or
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: three items and you don't want to wait in a
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: long line past people who have great, big market baskets.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: So maybe they'll have an express line or something to
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: replace it. But the impact of robots has mainly been limiting,
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: too limited to manufacturing. General Motors introduced the first industrial
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: robot in so this is nothing new. We've had robots
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: and automobile factories welding the bodies doing the painting for
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: at least twenty years, and the new world of artificial
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: intelligence and computer driven intelligence is taking up a lot
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: of innovative energy, but so far the impact is in
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: little niches of the economy rather than across the board.
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: We've got voice recognition, language translation, reading, radiology, scans, some
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: of the uses of computer technology doing legal searches. Computers
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: are really good for doing searching and can do it
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: more efficiently than humans. So there's a very gradual transition
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: to take advantage of these new technologies. But to go
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: back to your original question, I don't see any great
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: breakthrough for the next twenty five years, and I'm humble
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: enough to resist any predictions of what's going to be
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: happening in hundred years now. The Professor, the history in
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: your book is really fascinating, and one of my favorite
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: images is when you discuss how horses were the primary
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: motive of transportation and the streets would just be filled
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: with horse manure and urine, and the stench would be
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: terrible and people would get stuck in it. And uh,
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: you know how much that has changed over since then.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: It's just really amazing. You know. It sounds like in
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: one way where you know, the economy or productivity is
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: going to be stuck in horse manure for for some time,
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: which brings me to the point of uh, we we
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: spent a lot of time here at Bloomberg writing listening
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: to people talk about secular stagnation, debating that and whether
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: interest rates are are going are basically permanently lower, moving
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: permanently lower over time. It's a debate that the Fed,
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: is Federal Reserve is very actively having right now. Is
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: it fair to say that you come down on the
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: on the side of their being secular stechnation right now
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: and interest rates, you know, staying very low for a
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: long time. Yes. The diagnosis that I have developed is
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: that this lack of economy wide impact of today's innovations
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: is pulling down the rate of productivity growth and the
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: rate of growth of the economy overall. UH. And that's
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: led to a reduction in interest rates that is going
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: to be a long term phenomenon. This has a lot
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: of profound implications, starting with pension funds, which are no
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: longer going to be able to achieve rates of return
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: of seven or eight percent that are built into their
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: assumptions about the future. Indeed, we're going to have a
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: world in which it's much cheaper to borrow money. UH.
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: The effects of the federal debt are less ominous when
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: interest rates are going to continue to be down around
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: one and a half or two percent for the tenure
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: bond rate rather than at four or five. And the
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: latitude for the Fed to ray short term interest rates,
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: as they themselves are publicly recognizing, is much less than before.
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: If you ask people three or four years ago, they
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: were assuming that the Fed fairly shortly would be raising
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: interest rates gradually back up to four or five as
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: they did before two thousand and seven. But this time
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: they're not going to do it, and they're hesitating because
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: it appears that the economy's long term interest rate has
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: substantially declined. Leaving aside the absence of big bang breakthrough inventions,
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: what role does demographics have. It's a hot button issue
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: right now in the United States, but immigration, for example,
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: is at least renewing the population and the labor market here.
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: But we've had a major turnaround that can be described
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: under the heading of demographics. If you look at the
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: growth of the labor force in the last half of
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: the twentieth century, the last quarter of the twentieth century, UH,
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: it grew at about one and a half percent per year.
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: UH it's now growing in about a half a percent
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: per year. Slower than the rate of population growth because
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: of the retirement of the baby boom generation that pulls
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: people out of the labor force even though they're still
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: in the population um. If you take that turnaround in
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: the growth of the labor force, it accounts for a
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: full one percentage point of the decline and overall GDP growth,
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: and that's something that's not going to go away. The
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: baby boom generation will continue to be retiring starting around
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: two thousand and eight, and going through about we will
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: be having continuing downward drag on the growth of the
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: labor force um. And so when you put that together
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: with slow productivity growth, you see there's just not that
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: much room for robust economic growth of the type that
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: we had back before two thousand and seven. In the
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: next two longest economies, China and Japan, that demographic situation
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: is even dire than the one you've just described. That's right,
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: and one of the reasons that, of course China and
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: Japan have a rapidly aging population, much more, much larger
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: percent of their population is over the age of sixty,
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: and it's true for US and in China there uh,
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: they've imposed that on themselves with the one child policy
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: in Japan, they've imposed that on themselves, partly by low
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: fertility and also by a society that is absolutely impervious
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: to immigration. Um. Whereas we have a lot of latitude
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: to raise our own rate of population growth and with it,
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: the rate of economic growth by a reform in our
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: immigration policy. We could follow Canada in Australia by developing
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: a point system by which people are admitted, with points
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: based on their earning capacity, on their education. Um. People
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: who would come to the United States and be able
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: to start companies to get good, solid jobs, pay taxes,
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: and help our economy grow faster. So UM. In my mind,
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: those who were opposed to immigration and those who are
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: UM trying to deport um, those who are unofficially here
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: without proper without citizenship, are going in absolutely the wrong
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: direction if they're interested in future economic growth. Well, that's
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: a nice segue into into our next question, which is
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: of course on our minds the presidential election. Is there
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: anything that the next president can do about the slowdown
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: and productivity growth? Paul Krugman, for one, thinks not. It's
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: really about technology, not policy. What are your thoughts, Well,
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: there's a great call from both candidates and economists like
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: Paul Krugman and Larry Summers for a massive program of
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: infrastructure spending. UM. I think the case for that becomes
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: very strong when you consider how low interest rates are
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: and how we can the government can borrow at very
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: low interest rates to finance repairs of highways, bridges, subsidies
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: to improve and extend mass transit in many places where
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: it's lacking. UM. And caution I would have about more
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: infrastructure is that that's not necessarily going to revive UM
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: productivity growth. The construction industry that would benefit the most
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: from infrastructure spending is one of the most prehistoric industries
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: in terms of its productivity and technology. Most construction is
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: still be done with machines that look very similar to
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: those of the nineteen fifties, and that's just one kind
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: of public investment. UM. I'm a big believer and urge
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: in the last part of my book, UM major attention
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: to preschool education, especially through the poverty population going way
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: back but before age three and four and almost to birth,
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: in providing advice and counsel to mothers on how to
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: raise children and trying to get over this tremendous vocabulary
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: gap that afflicts poor children compared to middle class and
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: upper class children. The average poor child UM enters kindergarten
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: with about a third vocabulary of UM normal middle class children,
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: and that handicaps them throughout school and leads to dropping
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: out of high school, leads to more owness to crime,
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: and much less chance of getting a college education. This
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: is all pretty sobering stuff, Professor, Before we go, is
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: there anything that Americans can feel optimistic about, or at
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: least relatively optimistic compared with other countries? And in fact,
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: I just want to add that we have a story
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: just out that shows that US productivity and manufacturing is
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: actually the best in the world according to Boston consulting Group.
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: That's by my colleague, Shechelle jam Risco. Here. Yes, the
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: ray of optimism that we can end with is is
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: that the United States is still ahead in of all
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: but a couple of small countries in the level of
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: its productivity. And we are entering a period of the
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: next two or three years which I think will go
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: down in history as some of the best years of
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: American uh on the American economy. We're going to continue
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: to create eight jobs, the unemployment rate is going to
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: continue to go down toward where it was in two thousand,
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: down closer to than five and as a result, it's
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: going to be easier to get jobs. UM firms are
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: going to compete for workers and push up wages. So
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: we're gonna begin to see improving the wages and maybe
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a hiatus and the rise of inequality.
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: Uh So, I think we're in for a good period
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: of years with no uh no symptoms of an on
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: onset of a recession. We've made it through the UM
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: period of the strong dollar without the economy uh faltering.
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: UM job growth continues to be strong, and I think
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: it's going to bring many benefits to workers who have
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: been up to this point left behind. Professor, thank you
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: very much. You go. We have some housekeeping to do
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: to wrap it up, but thank you. Benchmark will be
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: back next week. Until then, you can find us on
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: the Bloomberg terminal and Bloomberg dot com, as well as iTunes,
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: pocket cast, and Stitcher. While you're there, take a minute
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: to rate and review the show. Some more listeners can
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: find us. You can also find me on Twitter at
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: at Scott Landman and Dan at at Daniel Moss d C.
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: Maybe next week we'll have something we can feel really
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: good about. See you next week. Brought to you by
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: stage Summit Live, the virtual conference that provides all the
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: highlights at Stage Summit from the convenience of your desk.
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: Celebrity entrepreneurs, Incifle workshops absolutely free. Register at stage summit
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: live stream dot com.