Latest / Best of Business / Jeremy Hutton: Milford Asset Management Equities Analyst on NZX making a recovery

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Jeremy Hutton: Milford Asset Management Equities Analyst on NZX making a recovery · Best of Business

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  Speaker 1: You're listening to a podcast from news Talk ZEDB. Follow
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• 0:16
  Speaker 2: Just to remind you, we're going to be chatting to
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  Speaker 2: Infrastructure New Zealand after the news after half past because
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  Speaker 2: they've obviously been barred from the budget day lock up
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  Speaker 2: as well. Right now though, Jeremy Hutton Milford Acid Management
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  Speaker 2: is with us.
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  Speaker 3: Hey, Jeremy, Good evening, Heather.
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  Speaker 2: So we've seen a complete round tripe and performance on
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  Speaker 2: the inziet X and various global markets since Trump's Liberation Day.
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  Speaker 2: How's the INSIDEX market been going?
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, the INSIDEX has been going relatively well. It is
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  Speaker 3: widely seen as a defensive market given the nature of
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  Speaker 3: some of our larger companies that make up the index.
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  Speaker 3: But starting with some numbers, so post Liberation Day on
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  Speaker 3: April to second, the inside X fell about four and
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  Speaker 3: a half percent over the five days where the market's
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  Speaker 3: sold off heavily. The SMP and the tech heavy NASDAK
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  Speaker 3: fell around twelve percent over the same period, so New
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  Speaker 3: Zealand did show some out four moments on the downside there,
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  Speaker 3: but as you said before, they have done a full
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  Speaker 3: round trip and markets have clawed back all of these
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  Speaker 3: losses and some gains too, So the Nasdaq that's now
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  Speaker 3: up eight percent since Liberation Day, the SMP four percent,
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  Speaker 3: so those markets have completely shrugged the tariffs off. And
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  Speaker 3: the z X too has had a good rebound. It's
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  Speaker 3: up four percent, so it has been keeping up a
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  Speaker 3: little bit on the upside too. But you know, it's
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  Speaker 3: fair to say that the market assumptions at the moment
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  Speaker 3: are pretty favorable, continuing sort of expecting, you know, the
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  Speaker 3: continuing of easing of trade tensions and no slower global growth,
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  Speaker 3: which maybe is a little bit tad ambitious at this point.
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  Speaker 2: I mean huge turnarounds, which is the point that you've
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  Speaker 2: made in short, short periods of time. Can you actually
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  Speaker 2: pick where the turning points are?
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's extremely difficult, and to me, it just continues
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  Speaker 3: to show how tricky it is trying to time the market,
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  Speaker 3: especially given the volatility and some of the speeds of
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  Speaker 3: the moves that we're seeing, and sentiment can turn and
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  Speaker 3: are really bullish to max bearish in a very short
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  Speaker 3: space of time, and Trump holding daily press conferences doesn't
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  Speaker 3: help with this. But I think the best strategy as
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  Speaker 3: an investor is just to think about your long term
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  Speaker 3: goals and try and stick to that plan and chopping markets,
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  Speaker 3: try not to panic or get any fomo in both
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  Speaker 3: the buy and the seuside.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, and we're talking about sale when the market is
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  Speaker 2: having to sell off. What companies on the interetex do
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  Speaker 2: investors tend to favor.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, and this turmoil and where markets are falling, investors
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  Speaker 3: do tend to shift to easily predictable businesses and solid sectors.
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  Speaker 3: And these are examples like consumer staples and food and
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  Speaker 3: utilities and the injet X has a few good examples.
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  Speaker 3: So our own relatively robust gent tailor electricity sector that
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  Speaker 3: gets a lot of interest when markets tend to sell off.
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  Speaker 3: And then also high quality growth companies that growing every
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  Speaker 3: year like EBOS that gets a bit of a flight
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  Speaker 3: to safety too. And Spark traditionally would have been in
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  Speaker 3: that camp as well, but given they're having a few
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  Speaker 3: of their own specific issues, means that investors are avoiding
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  Speaker 3: that name for now.
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  Speaker 2: And just very quickly tell me. In May, so far
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  Speaker 2: we've seen a bit of a rally. What companies have
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  Speaker 2: benefited here?
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, some of the tariff exposed companies, as you'd imagine
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  Speaker 3: so main freight that's up twenty three percent on that
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  Speaker 3: normalization of trade. We've got Infra till you know, they
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  Speaker 3: got hit on the tech sell off, so they're up
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  Speaker 3: eleven percent. And then cyclical companies they tend to perform
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  Speaker 3: well in bill markets generally, and in New Zealand, we've
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  Speaker 3: got the retirement names like Ryman and Somerset and also
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  Speaker 3: a bit of Fletcher Building too, so they've all had
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  Speaker 3: double digit gains this month so far. But yeah, the
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  Speaker 3: volatility makes investors jobs really tricky, but it does make
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  Speaker 3: following the markets super interesting at the moment.
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  Speaker 2: Thank you so much, Jeremy really appreciated. Jeremy Hutton of
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  Speaker 2: Milford Acid Management.
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