Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Early Super Bowl LVI Gambling Preview

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Early Super Bowl LVI Gambling Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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1:26
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume podcast Network.
1:31
Speaker 1: It is Tuesday, two weeks before the Super Bowl between
1:37
Speaker 1: the Rams and the Bengals. The Rams are currently four
1:41
Speaker 1: point favorites. I am joined as I am every time
1:45
Speaker 1: we do the podcast by my bff, my companion, my
1:49
Speaker 1: compadre professional better signed in Hunter. We got a lot
1:57
Speaker 1: to talk about, Buddy. Yeah, super Bowl week brought there good,
2:00
Speaker 1: good two weeks of just talking about two teams. It's
2:03
Speaker 1: it's the best. It is amazing how much content will
2:06
Speaker 1: get pumped out over the next two weeks about these
2:08
Speaker 1: two teams. And we're not going to be any different
2:11
Speaker 1: over the next two weeks. Today we're going to sort
2:15
Speaker 1: of do our recap and overview. We do have a
2:17
Speaker 1: lot to talk about, specifically one of us going all
2:21
Speaker 1: in on the Chiefs, one of us going all in
2:24
Speaker 1: on the Bengals. I have gotten a lot of d
2:26
Speaker 1: m s. I have gotten a lot of texts from
2:29
Speaker 1: people who very much want to know what was our
2:32
Speaker 1: interplay during the game. How did you react? How was
2:35
Speaker 1: I reacting? Uh, We're gonna recap the weekend, another great
2:39
Speaker 1: weekend for the NFL. We're gonna preview a little bit
2:42
Speaker 1: of what we think about this game. Thursday. Stucky, the
2:47
Speaker 1: famed Stucky from the Action Network podcast, whose stats and
2:51
Speaker 1: trends and data I will repeat incessantly when we do
2:56
Speaker 1: our Thursday podcast generally during the season, he will be
3:00
Speaker 1: on with us Thursday talking about the trends and the
3:04
Speaker 1: facts from the super Bowl that we need to be
3:06
Speaker 1: paying attention to you right now. That is Thursday. Next Tuesday,
3:12
Speaker 1: very special Props episode with Sean Kroner and Chris Raybon,
3:19
Speaker 1: our props analysts. They also are the analysts who joined
3:23
Speaker 1: me and Simon every Sunday for Convince me they're amazing
3:28
Speaker 1: at the prop game. And then Thursday we'll do our
3:31
Speaker 1: best bets. We'll get down to it. Thursday we will
3:33
Speaker 1: have narrowed down the board to two teams that nobody
3:35
Speaker 1: else is thinking about, and we will come up with
3:38
Speaker 1: our best bets. It's a full menu that Matt Mitchell
3:42
Speaker 1: is put together for us. He's the best. It's review time, Simon,
3:47
Speaker 1: do you have anything you want to say? This morning,
3:49
Speaker 1: I was working on my year end reviews for for you,
3:53
Speaker 1: I was doing yours this morning. Am I really actually
3:56
Speaker 1: getting a review? Fun? Yeah, you're getting in a review.
3:59
Speaker 1: I'm putting a lot of time into it. From ten
4:01
Speaker 1: forty four until my eleven am call, I was working
4:05
Speaker 1: on your review. I only got like a paragraph and
4:07
Speaker 1: a half in. I feel like it should be a
4:10
Speaker 1: pretty simple review. I mean, I'm the best chat right,
4:16
Speaker 1: Let's get to it. Man, Listen, we both love the Niners.
4:19
Speaker 1: Three and a half made total sense. Everything pointed to that.
4:22
Speaker 1: I think we probably wouldn't have been a surprise obviously
4:25
Speaker 1: if the Niners one. We both had tickets on the
4:27
Speaker 1: Niners one. They gave away that game, as Kyle Shanahan
4:30
Speaker 1: does in the fourth quarter of you know, high profile
4:34
Speaker 1: games when he has a chance to win something big.
4:36
Speaker 1: But it kind of played out exactly as we thought
4:38
Speaker 1: it would, not so much. I mean, honestly, I once
4:41
Speaker 1: they got up ten enter that fourth quarter, I really
4:43
Speaker 1: thought that was it. I thought the four are gonna
4:46
Speaker 1: run the clock out, They're gonna control it. But again,
4:49
Speaker 1: I don't want to shoot on Shanahan because you just
4:51
Speaker 1: did something incredible, like he took a team on a
4:53
Speaker 1: nice run to the NFC Championship game, but the actually
4:56
Speaker 1: never tweeted out that Skuy has had. I mean, arguably,
5:00
Speaker 1: we were three of the worst meltdowns we've ever seen
5:01
Speaker 1: in fourth quarters. The Patriots won six on everyone's mind
5:04
Speaker 1: with the Falcons, like the Kansas City Chiefs and the
5:07
Speaker 1: Super Bowl sticks out, and then that game against the
5:09
Speaker 1: Rams where he just got tight like he like again,
5:12
Speaker 1: we'll talk about the Chiefs game. It's just coaches kind
5:14
Speaker 1: of get tight in these playoffs and they started over
5:16
Speaker 1: thinking things, and it's like debos, you're all debos your team.
5:19
Speaker 1: Like the fact that Debo don't get a touch for
5:22
Speaker 1: twelve and a half minutes. I believe it was of
5:23
Speaker 1: that fourth quarter that's why they lost. It's like he's
5:27
Speaker 1: their best play maker. He's the one that got them
5:28
Speaker 1: their touchdown in that game. Like he is that team
5:31
Speaker 1: on offense, and they went away from Debo and that
5:35
Speaker 1: that hurt man. Like that guy dropping that pick. I
5:37
Speaker 1: felt like that was the game kind of right, Like
5:39
Speaker 1: he dropped that moonshot down the field ball, which I
5:43
Speaker 1: think it would have been at the fifty or forty
5:44
Speaker 1: five of forty Niners, and again they had no time out,
5:48
Speaker 1: the rams, they had used all their time outs, all
5:49
Speaker 1: their challenges, and ten minutes left in the game. It
5:52
Speaker 1: was just there for Shanahan to take and he just
5:55
Speaker 1: again people are gonna put on Jimmy, I put on
5:56
Speaker 1: chann I just don't think he called a smart game
5:59
Speaker 1: at the very end of that game where he didn't
6:00
Speaker 1: get the ball in Deebo's hand, he put Jimmy along
6:03
Speaker 1: like second and nine, third and nine positions. It's just
6:06
Speaker 1: it was a very weird way to end that game
6:08
Speaker 1: that fourth quarter. I thought both coaches had shitted games.
6:12
Speaker 1: I thought McVeigh using the challenges, losing time out clearly
6:17
Speaker 1: was not sort of neither he or Shanahan. We're sort
6:20
Speaker 1: of playing at their coaching at their best in that
6:23
Speaker 1: game at all. Honestly, I thought Shannon was killing it
6:26
Speaker 1: for about three quarters there. He just was. The offense
6:29
Speaker 1: was just really methodical, where they were using the run
6:32
Speaker 1: to set up the pass and then vice versa. Once
6:34
Speaker 1: they started backing off, that's when he would run it again.
6:36
Speaker 1: But all of a sudden they got that ten point lead,
6:38
Speaker 1: and he was just like, uh, like, you didn't know
6:40
Speaker 1: what to do. It's just it's bizarre that this guy
6:43
Speaker 1: who is arguably we talked about the time when the
6:44
Speaker 1: best football minds of football has meltdowns. But I thought
6:47
Speaker 1: your buddy Seth Seth Wickersham had the best tweet I
6:50
Speaker 1: saw that night, which was you see why the four
6:54
Speaker 1: nine is drafted Trey Lance and you can see why
6:59
Speaker 1: the Rams when out got Matthew Stafford. Like that game
7:03
Speaker 1: really was Stafford. He went and won them that game.
7:06
Speaker 1: That wasn't Cousin McVeigh. That was Stafford making those big
7:09
Speaker 1: throws with Cooper Cup, which again we're gonna be talking
7:13
Speaker 1: about the Rams a lot of this coming a week.
7:14
Speaker 1: He was incredible in that game, Cooper Cup, Like that
7:16
Speaker 1: catchy it on third down, it was like, I think
7:18
Speaker 1: third and ten really small, tight window was a bullet
7:22
Speaker 1: and he just snagged and took it for another twenty yards.
7:24
Speaker 1: It's like like this guy, his speed, his his quickness,
7:27
Speaker 1: his football mind, Like it's it's incredible that he was
7:30
Speaker 1: a third round pick for them. Um what was he
7:33
Speaker 1: at a easter Washington? I think, yeah, it's it's crazy, man.
7:38
Speaker 1: So that's why we joke all the time about their
7:41
Speaker 1: star and scrub method. It makes it a lot easier.
7:43
Speaker 1: You can draft and All Pro at wide receiver and
7:45
Speaker 1: All Pro a d tackle and then you can fill
7:47
Speaker 1: in the pieces from there. It's like those are such
7:49
Speaker 1: key positions. The Ramsey that was obviously a big addition,
7:53
Speaker 1: but that whole team is just solid the rams So
7:56
Speaker 1: for me, that matchup that felt like the four downs
7:59
Speaker 1: where their kryptonite. That was a huge hump for them
8:01
Speaker 1: to get over. But in the end, fel like Shanahan
8:04
Speaker 1: gave that game away. He just did not call the
8:06
Speaker 1: game playing to close the game out. We've seen them
8:07
Speaker 1: take I would say ten different times Shore I can
8:10
Speaker 1: remember off the top, I had the four Nightards having
8:11
Speaker 1: ten minute drives where they just drive down the field
8:14
Speaker 1: and just eat the clock up, and in the biggest
8:16
Speaker 1: moment he had a ten point lead, he just couldn't
8:18
Speaker 1: do it. So for me, this is just more about Shanahan.
8:21
Speaker 1: And again people say Jimmy is gonna leave. I agree
8:24
Speaker 1: with that position. I think it should be Trail Lance
8:26
Speaker 1: next year because again I like Jimmy and everything like that,
8:30
Speaker 1: But what did he really do to get them to
8:33
Speaker 1: where they are at? Like he did have a couple
8:34
Speaker 1: of big throws, but I can see why they drafted
8:37
Speaker 1: Trail Lance. They just need someone that can be that
8:39
Speaker 1: next level quarterback, just not a middle level quarterback. Well, listen,
8:43
Speaker 1: that was a winner for both of us. At this
8:46
Speaker 1: time last week, we were both leading towards the Chiefs.
8:50
Speaker 1: As the week went on, the number moved a little bit.
8:52
Speaker 1: It got to seven and a half. You admitted that
8:55
Speaker 1: you had the Chiefs says six and a half point favorites,
8:58
Speaker 1: and even though the line of seven was not was
9:01
Speaker 1: showing the value on the Bengals, you were gonna go
9:04
Speaker 1: with the Chiefs anyways. You just thought they were the
9:06
Speaker 1: better team and in the better position, but you didn't
9:08
Speaker 1: like some of the flukiness that got the Bengals into
9:10
Speaker 1: the position they were. When the line popped to seven
9:13
Speaker 1: and a half, for me, I immediately bet the Bengals.
9:15
Speaker 1: And it's probably the first time all year that you
9:18
Speaker 1: and I could not find consensus on a game. Like normally,
9:22
Speaker 1: if we don't find consensus, then we skipped the game
9:26
Speaker 1: and we go onto something else. I didn't have that option,
9:29
Speaker 1: so you and I had to be against each other.
9:31
Speaker 1: You were very patronizing to me last week. You know,
9:35
Speaker 1: I don't know the gambling, blah blah blah, and playing
9:38
Speaker 1: the public. I had to remind you, I've looked into
9:41
Speaker 1: the bright lights of my friend. I'm an old person.
9:44
Speaker 1: I've been under the pressure. I don't blink. Look what
9:48
Speaker 1: happened Bengals even down three, I'm like, I feel like
9:52
Speaker 1: I got this. Didn't never never once concerned. I didn't hedge, dude,
9:59
Speaker 1: it was not concerned. Not only was I not concerned,
10:02
Speaker 1: I might have I might have taken a nap at
10:04
Speaker 1: some point during the game. You didn't bet the live
10:07
Speaker 1: line of plus seventeam. I didn't bet. I didn't bet
10:10
Speaker 1: the live line once. That's what I mean. You were
10:11
Speaker 1: you'd given up. That's why you took the nap. Chat.
10:13
Speaker 1: It wasn't that you weren't concerned. You given up. No,
10:16
Speaker 1: I took the nap because I'm old and I'm tired,
10:19
Speaker 1: and I can't stay up for three hours at a time.
10:22
Speaker 1: If it was twenty one to three Bengals, you were
10:24
Speaker 1: not taking that nap. Oh. Yes, I was taking the
10:29
Speaker 1: nap because then it was like the Chiefs were gonna
10:31
Speaker 1: have to score three four touchdowns in order to cover
10:35
Speaker 1: that game. But no, I was definitely feeling good man.
10:38
Speaker 1: I was gonna tweet out that's why they call you
10:40
Speaker 1: Joe Dirt about Joe Burrow, which would have been a
10:44
Speaker 1: great line, But no, I didn't. I didn't question your credits.
10:47
Speaker 1: I did a Michael Scott line. I said you'll learn, baby,
10:50
Speaker 1: You'll learn, which is a line that he says on
10:53
Speaker 1: the show, which you keep not picking up on. It's
10:55
Speaker 1: just a joke, like who cares? But no, I mean
10:58
Speaker 1: you were right. I said the Bengals felt like a
11:00
Speaker 1: good number, but I just thought the Chiefs were a
11:03
Speaker 1: better team, they had a better offense, and Joe Burrow
11:05
Speaker 1: wouldn't show up in the moment, and um, yeah, if
11:08
Speaker 1: I would have known that the Chiefs would have seven
11:11
Speaker 1: straight drives of three and only get three points out
11:14
Speaker 1: of all seven drives, I probably would have been with you.
11:16
Speaker 1: I feel like that had been a good bet. But yeah, man,
11:19
Speaker 1: that first half that's gonna be talked about for a
11:22
Speaker 1: long time. That whole sequence of it's twenty one to ten,
11:27
Speaker 1: they get the ball down to the one, they have
11:30
Speaker 1: three plays. I think it was like fifteen seconds to
11:33
Speaker 1: get a touchdown. Man. Again, I want to blame it
11:36
Speaker 1: on Andy Reid, but like I've already rewatched this game.
11:39
Speaker 1: The second half it was just all my homes. He
11:41
Speaker 1: had open guys. I know people are like, oh, they
11:43
Speaker 1: dropped eight back. He's been facing that all season. He's
11:47
Speaker 1: made it work all the season. Just simply my homes
11:50
Speaker 1: just missing his guys. He had plenty of times with
11:52
Speaker 1: Kelsey was open, he had times with Tiger Kill was open.
11:54
Speaker 1: He just did not target them the second half. So
11:57
Speaker 1: it was, um definitely one of the craziest to has everything.
12:00
Speaker 1: I think historically, Um, it's never happened before. It was
12:04
Speaker 1: twenty and oh in the a f C Champion Chief game,
12:07
Speaker 1: if a team had a ten point lead at halftime,
12:10
Speaker 1: they were twenty and at home. Um, so we obviously
12:13
Speaker 1: saw a piece of history there. And yeah, man, it's
12:16
Speaker 1: it's pretty epic for these Bengal fans because they again
12:19
Speaker 1: Chatsay didn't give up. Bengal bedders gave up. So people
12:22
Speaker 1: at halftime were not even half time it was twenty
12:24
Speaker 1: one two three to go from that low of lows
12:27
Speaker 1: of being like fuck, same old Bengals, like all we
12:31
Speaker 1: all thought this was the team. They just let us
12:33
Speaker 1: down completely too. When it was in that second half,
12:37
Speaker 1: I think it was like almost the end of the
12:38
Speaker 1: third quarter, everyone felt that the bank was gonna win,
12:42
Speaker 1: and then when it went to o T I was like,
12:45
Speaker 1: oh my god, it's gonna happen again. That coin flip bs,
12:48
Speaker 1: which that annoyed the hell out of me because my
12:51
Speaker 1: whole view on the coin flip is they still gotta
12:53
Speaker 1: do it. Like people act like it's so easy to score,
12:57
Speaker 1: where it's like it's really not unless the defense is
13:00
Speaker 1: so cooked they can't keep their legs underneath them, which
13:02
Speaker 1: is kind of what happened to Bills. It's not that
13:04
Speaker 1: easy scoring overtime. I know it's been a little shifted
13:06
Speaker 1: in the playoffs, but that since the team was rested,
13:09
Speaker 1: they've literally been sitting in that whole second half. It
13:11
Speaker 1: was the Bengals offensive was on the field the whole
13:13
Speaker 1: second half, so the Chiefs went out there. They had
13:17
Speaker 1: two shitty plays on the third play through a really
13:19
Speaker 1: bad pick in a double coverage and the Bangals have
13:22
Speaker 1: an automatic kicker. Like again, we'll talk about the upcoming weeks.
13:25
Speaker 1: That's a big advantage for them this season. This kid
13:27
Speaker 1: has just been incredible. So it was ugly the Bengals.
13:31
Speaker 1: I I didn't give enough credit. I think I was
13:33
Speaker 1: one and two on the spread against them in this playoffs,
13:35
Speaker 1: but epic run. I mean, I'm killing myself. Where we
13:40
Speaker 1: talk all preseason, my favorite bets to make his second
13:42
Speaker 1: year quarterbacks like my whole again, I'm early in my career,
13:47
Speaker 1: but the last eight nine years, that's what I bet.
13:50
Speaker 1: I bet second year quarterbacks either make or running the
13:53
Speaker 1: super Bowl or make m v P. I was an
13:55
Speaker 1: asshole this year. I bet Miami and I bet the Chargers.
13:59
Speaker 1: Those are my two super Bowl futures. Little did I
14:01
Speaker 1: know at a hundred one this Bengals team. Man Like again,
14:05
Speaker 1: I wish I could be more upset, but I'm not,
14:07
Speaker 1: just because no pros bet it. Like I've been hitting
14:09
Speaker 1: up a bunch of guys that getting would take this,
14:11
Speaker 1: and it's like Joe Burrow coming off in a c L.
14:14
Speaker 1: None of us really like Zach Taylor in that division,
14:17
Speaker 1: the a f C North. It's crazy to think where
14:19
Speaker 1: they're at because a man, we talked in the season,
14:21
Speaker 1: we bet them at a tend to one to win
14:23
Speaker 1: the a f C North. I didn't bet the Super
14:26
Speaker 1: Bowl future. I looked at it too. It's one at
14:28
Speaker 1: that time and again, I'm gonna beat myself up about it,
14:32
Speaker 1: but it's like, that's why they play football, that's that's madness.
14:37
Speaker 1: We've never seen the number one pick in the NFL
14:39
Speaker 1: take his team to the super Bowl in the second year.
14:41
Speaker 1: It's never happened before. So it's definitely cool scene in history. Yeah,
14:45
Speaker 1: it's really interesting. The thing about this Bengals team and
14:48
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow is we've talked about the fluk nous and
14:52
Speaker 1: this is your main to the Super Bowl, the fluk
14:56
Speaker 1: nous of their games, and that when you study them,
15:00
Speaker 1: you look at him from the metrics point of view,
15:02
Speaker 1: none of it makes sense. None of sort of the
15:05
Speaker 1: analytics add up to the Bengals playing twenty games this
15:11
Speaker 1: year and eighteen of them ending by three points or less.
15:17
Speaker 1: Do you know what I mean, either them winning outright
15:19
Speaker 1: or losing by less than three points. It just makes
15:22
Speaker 1: no sense. But they they've got enough talent that they're
15:26
Speaker 1: always one big play away from getting back into it.
15:30
Speaker 1: And you can't sort of you can't underestimate what a
15:33
Speaker 1: game changer of Jamaar Chases and his ability to take
15:36
Speaker 1: the cap off and off a defense and get downfield
15:39
Speaker 1: and draw something. And you also can't underestimate, like Joe
15:43
Speaker 1: Burrow was just good, you know, and he makes athletic
15:46
Speaker 1: plays at least once a game. He's putting them in
15:48
Speaker 1: a position where he's getting them in the spot that
15:52
Speaker 1: they needed the exact time they need it. It's very
15:54
Speaker 1: rare this year that he hasn't sort of like that,
15:58
Speaker 1: that he has sacca to the sacks and made bad decisions.
16:02
Speaker 1: It's been remarkable, totally remarkable. At the flip side is Mahomes.
16:05
Speaker 1: We saw the second half overthrowing on a screen that
16:08
Speaker 1: probably could have helped them extend a drive, significant sackage
16:14
Speaker 1: on multiple drives, running around a little bit too long,
16:17
Speaker 1: and wasting time. Like Joe Burrow wasn't making those plays.
16:20
Speaker 1: He hasn't been making those plays all year. Phenomenal performance.
16:23
Speaker 1: Another start I love from the action Eric was Patrick
16:26
Speaker 1: Mahomes when he has led by double digits, he's thirty
16:29
Speaker 1: nine and two in his career against Joe Burrow. He's
16:33
Speaker 1: owing to again, Joe Cool, all the nicknames, everything like that.
16:37
Speaker 1: It's like he can look like crap for that whole
16:40
Speaker 1: first half. He didn't care. He came on that second
16:42
Speaker 1: half and he was chucking it and again, it wasn't pretty.
16:45
Speaker 1: It wasn't like they dominated the Chiefs, but they did enough.
16:48
Speaker 1: He made the plays exactly what Mahomes could not do.
16:51
Speaker 1: I think they outscored them. It was a twenty one
16:54
Speaker 1: to three in the second half. Crazy crazy, crazy game.
16:58
Speaker 1: I'm glad I didn't talk so much it about them,
17:00
Speaker 1: because my my biggest thing going into last week was
17:02
Speaker 1: like I cannot wait to fade the hell out of
17:05
Speaker 1: this Cincinnati Bengals team next year, like betting them not
17:09
Speaker 1: to make the playoffs, betting them to come in fourth
17:11
Speaker 1: or third in their division. Like I knew last week
17:14
Speaker 1: the hype train was getting so unreal. Joe Burrow now
17:17
Speaker 1: it's like I'm terrified of it. It's like this dude,
17:21
Speaker 1: he's just clutch man. Like that was again the Bengals.
17:26
Speaker 1: Who knows how long their history is. They hadn't won
17:28
Speaker 1: a road game until this season in the playoffs. Now
17:31
Speaker 1: he's won two straight and the way of the super Bowl,
17:33
Speaker 1: it's like just such a cool story. Um, That's why
17:36
Speaker 1: I'm so excited that we get to break down the
17:37
Speaker 1: Bengals next four weeks because it's like, not that I
17:41
Speaker 1: saw I was gonna be set in Stone. But it's like,
17:43
Speaker 1: you know, we know this Rams team, they've been here before.
17:45
Speaker 1: They go to the Super Bowls. We know this Foret
17:47
Speaker 1: Natives team, they go to Super Bowls. We know this
17:49
Speaker 1: Chief's team, they go to the Super Bowls. The Bengals
17:52
Speaker 1: is like truly one of the most stunning things I
17:54
Speaker 1: can remember in the last I don't know, thirty years
17:57
Speaker 1: of football. It's like the team going from a hundred
18:01
Speaker 1: and fifty one. They had worse odds than the Jaguars
18:04
Speaker 1: coming into the season two now they are in the
18:06
Speaker 1: Super Bowl. It's like I can't really wrap our head
18:09
Speaker 1: around it because we're still in the season, but like
18:11
Speaker 1: looking back on it, I'm just I just love thinking
18:13
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18:16
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18:18
Speaker 1: two million for next year's Super Bowl. I fucking love it.
18:21
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18:24
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18:26
Speaker 1: and it's a flukey game. You're playing with an egg
18:28
Speaker 1: shape ball. Weird ship's gonna happen. Like just talked about
18:31
Speaker 1: this Bengals team. The bounces have been going right for them.
18:34
Speaker 1: They have I believe it's six tip passes, three of
18:37
Speaker 1: them have been intercepted. That's mathematically that's improbable, like that
18:41
Speaker 1: just does not happen, but it's happening for them right now.
18:44
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Speaker 1: with this angles team. All right, well, let's talk about
21:02
Speaker 1: it a little bit already. The line opened at three
21:06
Speaker 1: and a half, immediately got bet up to four. I
21:10
Speaker 1: have bet the Bengals plus four. The money is currently
21:15
Speaker 1: coming in on Rams and the bets coming in on
21:21
Speaker 1: the Bengals. Not surprised that it moved forward. It looks
21:24
Speaker 1: like professional money has come in on the Rams. What
21:28
Speaker 1: do we think here? When we spoke Sunday night, our
21:30
Speaker 1: first instinct was Bengals plus four. I can't say, let
21:34
Speaker 1: me let me before you dive into the analysis. My
21:37
Speaker 1: instinct wasn't because of anything on the field, and we
21:40
Speaker 1: were very clear about this Sunday night. We did a
21:42
Speaker 1: video about it. We hadn't dug into anything. To me,
21:45
Speaker 1: it was only about two things. One, the Bengals have
21:48
Speaker 1: just proven it all season that they play close games.
21:50
Speaker 1: I said it, like eighteen of twenty games have been
21:52
Speaker 1: by a fewer than three points. B They consistently find
21:58
Speaker 1: ways to keep the game closed. L eight and see
22:01
Speaker 1: these playoff games generally, I have just all been so
22:04
Speaker 1: close that it's hard to see that pattern changing and
22:08
Speaker 1: so um, without doing any of the research, it just
22:11
Speaker 1: looked to me like playing a team that's getting more
22:13
Speaker 1: than a field goal was the right side. Also, like
22:16
Speaker 1: my first instinct was last time I saw McVeigh in
22:18
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl, he coached when the tightest games ever,
22:21
Speaker 1: when they put up three points against the Patriots, Like,
22:25
Speaker 1: the guy got completely outclassed and he just looked at
22:28
Speaker 1: deer in headlights still the time. So that's definitely been
22:31
Speaker 1: the back of my mind. We were talking about that
22:33
Speaker 1: on Sunday night. Now that have more time looking at it. Yeah,
22:36
Speaker 1: Like my my gut instinct was to take the Bengals
22:40
Speaker 1: because I thought the public and professionals would come on
22:42
Speaker 1: the Bengals. But the pros have loved the Rams all season.
22:46
Speaker 1: Like it's interesting to where they lost a bunch of
22:49
Speaker 1: money last week on taking their Rams. They didn't care.
22:51
Speaker 1: They fired away right away when the sign opened. Um,
22:54
Speaker 1: they just loved this team. We talked all summer about it.
22:57
Speaker 1: I just did not get it. Like I had so
22:58
Speaker 1: many professionals telling me to get on this Rams train,
23:01
Speaker 1: like take them for the Division, take them for the
23:03
Speaker 1: super Bowl, And I kept saying like, Matthew Stafford has
23:06
Speaker 1: never done anything like and their whole argument was it's Detroit,
23:09
Speaker 1: And it's like, is it though? It's like he had weapons,
23:12
Speaker 1: he had plenty of talent around him. Apparently it was
23:15
Speaker 1: just Detroit. I hate saying it, but it's like, what
23:18
Speaker 1: the hell? Man? This guy has been incredible in this playoffs,
23:21
Speaker 1: like these clutch throws, these big moments, he keeps stepping up,
23:24
Speaker 1: Like when he was down ten, I was waiting for
23:27
Speaker 1: the pick six like he was gonna force it into something,
23:30
Speaker 1: do something stupid, and they were gonna take it back. Now,
23:33
Speaker 1: he drove the field, they got a touchdown. Then the
23:35
Speaker 1: next time they got the ball back, he did throw
23:37
Speaker 1: that dumb pick. The guy dropped it, and then Stafford
23:40
Speaker 1: from that point on was just locked in again. He
23:42
Speaker 1: just he's been incredible these playoffs. So I I still
23:47
Speaker 1: don't really have a strong opinion on this one, honestly,
23:49
Speaker 1: Like I felt great about the under um it's moved
23:52
Speaker 1: a lot and seeing it down to forty eight a
23:54
Speaker 1: lot of books now, I still think that's a good
23:55
Speaker 1: key number with us under. I just think it's a
23:58
Speaker 1: very defensive matchup, like both these teams say what you
24:01
Speaker 1: want about their offenses. Their defenses have really stepped up
24:04
Speaker 1: both teams in these playoffs, and um, I'm looking at
24:10
Speaker 1: professional money really coming on the Trams team, which is
24:12
Speaker 1: what's giving me so much pause of this Bengals team
24:14
Speaker 1: because it's like the pros. I feel like they should
24:17
Speaker 1: love this Bengals team, like Chad just talked about, all
24:19
Speaker 1: their games are close, they have well we can argue about.
24:23
Speaker 1: I mean I don't. I'm not a big kicker ry,
24:25
Speaker 1: but like this guy has been automatic, Like it's it's
24:30
Speaker 1: really hard for me to want to take the Rams,
24:32
Speaker 1: and I think that's why, Like I want to take
24:34
Speaker 1: more time this number because I already bet the three
24:35
Speaker 1: and a half, already bet the four with the Bengals.
24:38
Speaker 1: It touched four and a half and I runner text
24:40
Speaker 1: mus like you wanted. I was just like yeah, but like,
24:42
Speaker 1: don't put more than a grand because it's like I
24:44
Speaker 1: still know what the hell I'm doing here. I want
24:46
Speaker 1: to be on the Bengals. I'll say that right now,
24:48
Speaker 1: like I do want to be on them. And my
24:51
Speaker 1: number of favorites at the Bengals, I made this number
24:53
Speaker 1: three obviously four or four and a half that's that's
24:56
Speaker 1: a big, big number for this Bengals team. So what's see, buddy?
25:00
Speaker 1: It's like, again's that's what's great about the super weave?
25:03
Speaker 1: Two really really two weeks to break this down. Um,
25:07
Speaker 1: I just don't get with these pros are scene with
25:09
Speaker 1: the RAMS team? It's like they have no home field advantage?
25:13
Speaker 1: Are they really that much better than the Bengals? Like?
25:16
Speaker 1: Why because everyone knows who Stafford or everyone knows Aaron
25:19
Speaker 1: Donald is. Um McVeigh is the boy wondering. Another big
25:24
Speaker 1: argument is that Zach Taylor is the understudy, so it's
25:26
Speaker 1: like McVeigh is gonna know exactly what Zach Keylor is
25:29
Speaker 1: gonna do? Is he? Though? It's like I don't know.
25:33
Speaker 1: I don't really have any proof of that. They haven't
25:35
Speaker 1: really played against each other before, so I don't know
25:39
Speaker 1: all this noise. It's kind of like I need to
25:40
Speaker 1: dig more into it. But I can tell you the
25:42
Speaker 1: calls I've gotten from the different pros and guys that
25:45
Speaker 1: need runners to put bets in. They like the Rams
25:47
Speaker 1: and like the under so they just see it as
25:50
Speaker 1: a great matchup where this RAMS team is the more
25:52
Speaker 1: veteran team, the better coach in their opinion and I
25:57
Speaker 1: can't agree with at this point. You know how I
25:58
Speaker 1: feel about Zach Taylor. UM. So yeah, it's definitely an
26:02
Speaker 1: interesting one where I felt really confident when we first
26:04
Speaker 1: talked about it with the Bengals, like I felt like
26:05
Speaker 1: my numbers were going to back it up at which
26:07
Speaker 1: it did. But hearing all the pro money and all
26:09
Speaker 1: the pros, I just love their Rams. They obviously know something, Chad.
26:13
Speaker 1: I mean, they were they were big like you were
26:15
Speaker 1: on the Bengals last week. Now I worked out for him.
26:17
Speaker 1: Now they're flipping. So it's interesting that they're choosing their
26:20
Speaker 1: Rams over this Bangles team, which they've been nothing but
26:23
Speaker 1: clutch this playoffs. Man, like they really have. It's it's
26:25
Speaker 1: pretty incredible. It's it's weird also because the Rams have
26:30
Speaker 1: other than the futures, the Rams haven't been a team
26:32
Speaker 1: that would give you any reason to back them against
26:37
Speaker 1: the spread. You know, they they have consistently come up
26:41
Speaker 1: short there in the highest profile moments, including this past weekend,
26:46
Speaker 1: including at the end of the year against the Niners.
26:50
Speaker 1: They've won the division kind of flukey. They won the conference,
26:54
Speaker 1: could have easily lost that game, and the wise guys
26:57
Speaker 1: almost never wanted back a favorite of this many points
27:01
Speaker 1: in the super Bowl. It truly doesn't make any sense.
27:04
Speaker 1: And that's what and this year when things have not
27:07
Speaker 1: made sense and we've gone with what we know, it's
27:10
Speaker 1: tending to pay off for us, right Like we've we've
27:13
Speaker 1: gone against the grain, even going against the professional betters,
27:16
Speaker 1: we've been right. Yeah, I'm like again, I'm a little
27:19
Speaker 1: wounded last week that I faded my system because it's
27:22
Speaker 1: obviously been good. I was or no not before last
27:25
Speaker 1: week I was nine and three against the spread. Now
27:28
Speaker 1: I'm ten of four, which is still great, but it's
27:30
Speaker 1: like it went four and oh. It literally picked both
27:33
Speaker 1: sides right and had both unders and it's like, funk man,
27:35
Speaker 1: I really wish I wouldn't go against it. But we
27:38
Speaker 1: talked last week. Myhomes was good to me this playoffs.
27:40
Speaker 1: He was four and oh against the over and against
27:43
Speaker 1: the spread. Now it's four and too. That obviously that
27:46
Speaker 1: that wounded me last week. But I'm gonna dive more
27:49
Speaker 1: into the numbers. But we talked about it a little
27:50
Speaker 1: bit Sunday night. Just the big skewer to me for
27:54
Speaker 1: a lot of these guys who are taking this RAMS
27:56
Speaker 1: team is the front four. So these guys said, no
27:59
Speaker 1: matter what, they were gonna take the fourty niners or
28:01
Speaker 1: they're gonna take the Rams no matter what. Once they
28:04
Speaker 1: saw the Bengal was one. So I just believe that
28:07
Speaker 1: they think that we saw in that game Joe Burrow
28:10
Speaker 1: escape a couple right, he got out of a couple
28:12
Speaker 1: of sacks. He is not doing that against his Rams
28:16
Speaker 1: team like Aaron Donald, ain't gonna whiff on those like
28:18
Speaker 1: that Kansas City. We knew their d line wasn't that good.
28:21
Speaker 1: We knew they were gonna get a little bit of pressure.
28:23
Speaker 1: They weren't good, right like that, Joe Burrow is pretty
28:25
Speaker 1: clean in that matchup. So it's it's what these guys
28:29
Speaker 1: keep bringing up, and that's what I'll dive more into.
28:31
Speaker 1: But I'm I'm gonna try not to overthink it, Chad right,
28:35
Speaker 1: because I definitely did last week with the Chiefs. It's
28:37
Speaker 1: like you're you're getting a good number with a good dog.
28:42
Speaker 1: I almost always take the dog in this posession and
28:44
Speaker 1: almost always take the money line. And we talked last
28:47
Speaker 1: year one of the big things I do is I
28:49
Speaker 1: take adjusted numbers because the spread it only matters one
28:53
Speaker 1: out of every ten super Bowl, So that means ninety
28:57
Speaker 1: percent of the time the spread does not matter in
28:59
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl, and I try to make extra money
29:01
Speaker 1: that way by betting adjusted line. So instead of getting
29:04
Speaker 1: the Bengals plus plus one seventy, I can just take
29:07
Speaker 1: the Bengals minus two and a half when plus two fifty,
29:10
Speaker 1: which is a big deal when you adjust these lines.
29:13
Speaker 1: So it's it's definitely an interesting number. I just don't
29:16
Speaker 1: see where the Bengals get blown out. That's why I
29:19
Speaker 1: like you just said the four and a half. It
29:21
Speaker 1: feels like a really big deal to me, and the
29:23
Speaker 1: books know that, so it's scary. It's it's scary as
29:26
Speaker 1: we sit here that they've moved at that number because
29:28
Speaker 1: that's really respected money coming in that they're moving that for.
29:31
Speaker 1: And we saw last week Chad touched on a bunch
29:34
Speaker 1: of times, especially on Convinced Me that Bangles number when
29:37
Speaker 1: we were doing a live show. It dropped. It dropped
29:39
Speaker 1: from seven and a half to seven despite um I
29:41
Speaker 1: think on the action app apples saying a percent of
29:44
Speaker 1: money and seven percent of the bets were on the
29:46
Speaker 1: Chiefs reverse line. Action like that that should have been
29:48
Speaker 1: a debt gaveaway to me that someone knows something in
29:50
Speaker 1: this game. When they're moving a number like that against
29:53
Speaker 1: millions and millions of dollars, that's the book saying something
29:55
Speaker 1: like someone's gotta read on that. So if this game
29:58
Speaker 1: closes that plus five us five and a half, Chad,
30:01
Speaker 1: I wanna be a little scary because I got it.
30:03
Speaker 1: I got a bad number at my plus three and
30:05
Speaker 1: a half. But I'm gonna let it ride for right
30:07
Speaker 1: now and we'll see maybe Thursday I get stuck in here.
30:10
Speaker 1: You can convince me otherwise, but it just feels like
30:12
Speaker 1: as we sit here, I just like this bangals number.
30:14
Speaker 1: So if you're if you want to make a bet
30:16
Speaker 1: right now, take the four and a half. I'm comfortable
30:18
Speaker 1: with that. Just understand that things can change. You're like,
30:21
Speaker 1: I do need to talk to a lot of other
30:22
Speaker 1: pros and see what they're seeing because I just don't
30:25
Speaker 1: get the RAMS love and usually means I'm missing something.
30:27
Speaker 1: If I just don't understand why so many smart groups
30:30
Speaker 1: are betting this RAMS team. Well, where the flip side
30:33
Speaker 1: is we're smarter, which we were on the forty nine
30:36
Speaker 1: is again all these same guys were all over this
30:39
Speaker 1: RAMS team and they're like, no, they're trying to scare
30:41
Speaker 1: you off with the hook taking the three to take
30:43
Speaker 1: three and a half, don't buy into it. And it's like, no,
30:46
Speaker 1: that's a key number. We're gonna take that three and
30:47
Speaker 1: a half. And we joked on convinced me like I
30:50
Speaker 1: would have loved to get out the fourt hours moneyline,
30:52
Speaker 1: but when it's three and a half, like that's such
30:53
Speaker 1: a key number, you just always take that number. You
30:55
Speaker 1: don't just take the moneyline. So I know it hurt
30:58
Speaker 1: because we had the twenty and one on the Niners
31:00
Speaker 1: and I needed that bad buddy, Like I'm taking a
31:03
Speaker 1: big loss now in futures this season because I didn't
31:05
Speaker 1: hedge that either like I had, like I had eight
31:08
Speaker 1: grand probably total on that fort I needed about every
31:12
Speaker 1: bit of it to get my money back from my
31:14
Speaker 1: futures bets. But luckily I've been betting the forty Niners
31:17
Speaker 1: money line and they're spread for this playoffs, so I
31:19
Speaker 1: got some. I got my money back for bet their futures,
31:22
Speaker 1: but that's done. I'm probably end up losing about forty
31:25
Speaker 1: km on futures, which that stings. But I hit last
31:29
Speaker 1: year on the Buccaneers, and I hit the year before,
31:31
Speaker 1: so it's it kind of helps helps uh not as
31:34
Speaker 1: be as wounded. But when they when they dropped that
31:37
Speaker 1: game again, as much as I was upset about the
31:39
Speaker 1: Chiefs one like that stuck to lose that money, I
31:41
Speaker 1: really had a lot of money invested in that the
31:44
Speaker 1: forty nine ers um on the spread, so that was
31:47
Speaker 1: definitely a bigger sweat for me when they lost the
31:48
Speaker 1: money line. I was just so crushing when we did
31:51
Speaker 1: a show afterwards, which I was like in a haze.
31:53
Speaker 1: I was just like, I just want to do this
31:55
Speaker 1: and just put this week behind me. But I knew
31:57
Speaker 1: obviously we have to talk about today because you nailed
31:59
Speaker 1: the Bengals game. But it I get the pain like before,
32:01
Speaker 1: and I understands that are going through it. It's like,
32:03
Speaker 1: as a as a better I feel your pain because
32:06
Speaker 1: it was like right there for you guys, and you
32:08
Speaker 1: just let it go. I'm not gonna lie to you.
32:11
Speaker 1: I'm not being as aggressively obnoxious as I planned on being,
32:15
Speaker 1: because you looked so sad on Sunday night and you've
32:20
Speaker 1: been so quiet the past two days that I just
32:23
Speaker 1: don't want to rub it in. I just you can
32:25
Speaker 1: I literally do not care. I'm feelings of sentiments as
32:30
Speaker 1: I go through your year end review, I'm thinking of
32:33
Speaker 1: what an excellent podcast partner you've been. You haven't missed
32:38
Speaker 1: a single show the entire year. I can't say that
32:41
Speaker 1: that's about the change. I didn't say that that's about
32:43
Speaker 1: the change. So what So what if I got the
32:46
Speaker 1: Bengals right and you got it wrong? So what if
32:49
Speaker 1: I made the more professional play? So what if you
32:51
Speaker 1: got suckered into betting Patrick Mahomes because he looks so
32:54
Speaker 1: good against the Bills. So what if you didn't see
32:57
Speaker 1: when Fluke meets consistent see with the Bengals. It's okay,
33:02
Speaker 1: It's okay. I was right, you were wrong. It's fine.
33:05
Speaker 1: I'm not going to rub it in. I don't want
33:06
Speaker 1: you to be sad. You've done so well this year.
33:08
Speaker 1: Congratulations hit the first half though, that's all that really mattered. Ah,
33:12
Speaker 1: there's you go. Look, there's only one game. We've said
33:15
Speaker 1: we like the under We've said we liked the Bengals obviously,
33:19
Speaker 1: and like we'll die more into it, right, I mean yeah, yeah, yeah,
33:21
Speaker 1: Like we we're filling it out that Mitchell has a
33:24
Speaker 1: whole menu plan for us. It's not like this line
33:26
Speaker 1: is moving like crazy. I do want to people to
33:28
Speaker 1: grab the under now, just because it is like we
33:31
Speaker 1: grab that a fifty and a half Sunday night. Now
33:33
Speaker 1: it's sounds of forty eight, like it's crossing a bunch
33:35
Speaker 1: of key numbers here. So I would like people to
33:37
Speaker 1: grab the under even though it's like again it's not
33:39
Speaker 1: it might not be a huge bet for me, but
33:41
Speaker 1: right now it's like I most of my money is
33:43
Speaker 1: invested on this under, so until it goes down to
33:46
Speaker 1: forty seven, I really like this number a lot. All Right,
33:50
Speaker 1: we're on the under. I'll do it. Simon says, right,
33:53
Speaker 1: and it says Simon says, go get it. You're right, Simon, Like,
34:07
Speaker 1: I'm so invested in being smarter than you right now
34:11
Speaker 1: that I completely forgot what's important for the show. And
34:16
Speaker 1: this is why in your review, I'm writing about what
34:17
Speaker 1: a professional you are, savvy media professional with a lot
34:22
Speaker 1: of good instincts. I went big wins, and here do
34:24
Speaker 1: I rub it in Chad's face. Now I just move
34:26
Speaker 1: on because it's just another weekend for Simon. I'm trying
34:29
Speaker 1: to turn this around. Literally cut my hair out of
34:31
Speaker 1: anger because I was just like I need to switch
34:33
Speaker 1: it up. Buzz the head. All right, A reminder. Thursday,
34:39
Speaker 1: we'll get a little more insight. We'll we'll probably get
34:41
Speaker 1: some sharp calls about why professionals are so into the
34:45
Speaker 1: Rams and we are so into the Bengals. We will
34:47
Speaker 1: have Stucky on we'll go over some trends and facts
34:50
Speaker 1: from the Super Bowl. Was Stucky? Next Tuesday we'll have
34:53
Speaker 1: our massive Props Spectral Spectacular with Chris Raybond and Sean Coroner.
35:00
Speaker 1: And then on Thursday, you and I'll go over our
35:02
Speaker 1: best bets, will finalize our lineup for the weekend. Also,
35:07
Speaker 1: the official Volume Merch store is open. A lot of
35:13
Speaker 1: you've been asking about buying favorite stuff, and we've got
35:16
Speaker 1: a new hoodie available. Nobody loves a hoodie more than me.
35:19
Speaker 1: Nobody loves a hoodie more than Simon. Just head over
35:22
Speaker 1: the Volume dot com and click on the merch tab.
35:25
Speaker 1: You will find a peril from our show and lots
35:27
Speaker 1: of other shows here at the Volume podcast Network. Check
35:32
Speaker 1: it out. No joke. It's like so many people have
35:34
Speaker 1: us already working from home, you might as well get
35:36
Speaker 1: a freaking hoodie and be comfortable. Ah, we did our
35:39
Speaker 1: Simon says, we don't have to do our foxel yet.
35:41
Speaker 1: We don't have to do our big bells yet. Scoot
35:44
Speaker 1: Roulette feels a little early. Yeah, let's say that for
35:47
Speaker 1: next Tuesday. Yeah, we'll say that for Tuesday. Because it's
35:50
Speaker 1: Scoot Roulett. We could also include some props. Yeah, that's
35:52
Speaker 1: what I was thinking. More of the props line. Yep, yep,
35:55
Speaker 1: all right, that's all she wrote. This is the favorites
35:59
Speaker 1: from the Volume podcast Network for Simon Hunter, for Matt Mitchell.
36:04
Speaker 1: I am Chad Noman. We will be back. Reminder on Thursday,
36:08
Speaker 1: We're Stucky from the Action Network podcast to give us
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Speaker 1: all the great trends and facts that we need for
36:14
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl between the Bengals and the Rams. Until then,
36:18
Speaker 1: I love you, h