Latest / Wages and Prices with Fexingo: Cost of Living, Pay Raises, and Workers' Purchasing Power / Why Your Raise Is Finally Beating the Cost of a Movie Ticket
Transcript
- Lucas: So Luna, I checked the BLS data this morning, and there's a number that just jumped out at me. The average price of a movie ticket has gone up only one point eight percent over the last twelve months. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings are up three point one percent. Luna: Wait, so that means a raise is actually covering the cost of going to the movies now? That hasn't been true in a while. Lucas: Exactly. For the first time in about a decade, your wage is outpacing the price of a ticket. And it's not just one month. The trend has been holding for several quarters now. But here's the thing — it's not because movie tickets have gotten cheap. It's because they've basically stopped going up. Luna: And why is that? I feel like my local cinema keeps raising prices. Lucas: Well, the average hides a lot. The standard adult ticket at a big multiplex is still around twelve to fifteen bucks. But the mix is shifting. People are buying fewer tickets overall, and when they go, they're choosing premium formats — IMAX, Dolby, the recliner seats. Those cost more. So the average should be rising, but it's not. Luna: So something's pulling the average down. What is it? Lucas: Discount days and subscription plans. AMC's Stubs A-List, Cinemark's Movie Club — these have been around for years, but they've really taken off. People are paying a flat monthly fee and seeing multiple movies. That drags the per-ticket average down. Plus, theaters have gotten more aggressive with bargain matinees and Tuesday deals to fill seats. Luna: So it's a volume play. They'd rather have you in the seat paying for popcorn and soda than staying home. Lucas: Right, popcorn margins are the real business. And there's another factor: the streaming hangover. During the pandemic, everyone got used to a ninety-day window. Now that's shrunk to forty-five days or even less for some releases. That means theaters have to compete harder for your time and money, so they've been careful about pricing. Luna: But doesn't that just mean the industry is in trouble? If no one's going, that's not good. Lucas: It's mixed. Box office is down about fifteen percent from pre-pandemic levels, but the audiences that do go are spending more on concessions and premium experiences. And here's the kicker: the average ticket price has stayed flat in nominal terms, which means in real terms, adjusted for inflation, it's actually fallen. Luna: So your raise is stretching further at the theater. That's a nice win for the consumer. Lucas: It is, and it's a useful lens on the broader inflation story. The Fed's preferred gauge, core PCE, is still running at three point three percent annually as of July. That's above the two percent target. But the movie ticket line item is a reminder that not everything is rising at the same pace. Some things are actually staying put. Luna: Is there a risk that theaters just start hiking prices again once they get their footing? Like, this is a temporary reprieve? Lucas: Possibly. But the competitive pressure from streaming isn't going away. And the demographics are changing. Younger audiences are less likely to go to the movies as a default activity. So theaters have to keep pricing to bring people in. I think we're in a new equilibrium where ticket prices grow at or below overall inflation. Luna: That's actually a hopeful thought. And it fits with what we've been seeing across a bunch of categories — your raise is finally beating the cost of things like diapers, summer camp, even rent in some markets. Lucas: Right, and that's the broader point of this show. When we zoom in on specific items, we see a lot of nuance. It's not all doom and gloom. There are real pockets where workers are gaining ground. Luna: You know, it's funny — we talk about this stuff every day, and I keep thinking how much I've learned just from having these conversations. Like, I actually checked my own budget and realized I could afford to go to the movies again without feeling guilty. Lucas: That's the kind of thing that makes this show worth doing. And honestly, if today's episode made something click for you, the smallest way to support us is to buy me a coffee dot com slash fexingo. It keeps the show going and ad-free. Luna: Yeah, we really do appreciate it. Now, back to those premium formats — are they actually worth the extra cost? Lucas: That's the question, right? IMAX and Dolby tickets can run you twenty bucks or more. But the average is being held down by discount plans. So the real story is that you have a huge spread. You can see a movie for seven bucks on a Tuesday or pay twenty-five for the full experience. Luna: And the data suggests more people are choosing the cheaper option, which is why the average isn't climbing. Lucas: Exactly. And that's a rational response to a service that's become more of a commodity. Theaters are realizing they can't just keep raising prices like they did in the two thousands when there was no alternative. Now there are too many alternatives. Luna: So is this a good sign for the broader economy? If movie tickets are staying flat, does that mean inflation is really under control in some areas? Lucas: I'd be careful with that. Core inflation is still above target, and services like rent and healthcare are still rising faster than wages in many places. But it does show that the inflation story is uneven. And that's why we do these deep dives — because the headline numbers can obscure what's happening in your wallet. Luna: Got any other surprising categories where wages are winning? Lucas: Actually, yes. Used car prices have been falling for over a year now, and they're down about eight percent from their peak in 2023. Your raise is definitely beating that. Luna: What about something like groceries? I feel like that's still painful. Lucas: Groceries are a mixed bag. Overall food-at-home inflation is around two percent, so wage growth is outpacing it. But there are spikes in specific items — like eggs or beef — which is why it doesn't feel that way at the checkout. Luna: So the takeaway is that it's a bit of a mosaic. Some things are getting better, some aren't. Lucas: Right, and that's why we keep doing this. It's not about cherry-picking good news. It's about understanding the mechanics. For movie tickets, the combination of streaming competition and subscription pricing has created a rare pocket where consumers have the upper hand. Luna: And that's something to enjoy while it lasts, because nothing stays the same forever. Lucas: True. But for now, if you've been putting off seeing that new blockbuster, the economics are on your side. Your raise is covering the ticket, and that's a small win worth taking.