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Why Bitcoin BOOMS in October! (The Pattern No One Talks About) | Beyond Bitcoin · Simply Bitcoin

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  September is historically the worst month for Bitcoin.
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  Prices fall like leaves in fall, but then October shows up like a
• 0:11
  laughing pumpkin on a theme park ride.
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  Today we're putting red September and October on the
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  same timeline with receipts, and I'll show you why.
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  History says that now might be the best time to go trick or
• 0:22
  treating for some Bitcoin, and no one is talking about it.
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  OK, some people are talking about it.
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  It's a quick. Check on crypto.
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  Prices. As we.
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  Begin the so-called months of. October October with strong.
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  Gains pretty much it's all that anyone talks about I'm oceans.
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  This is beyond Bitcoin. Grab your pumpkin spice latte
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  and let's dive into October. From 2011 to 2024, data shows
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  that while May can still be decent, things start to cool off
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  more noticeably in the summer. August, and particularly
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  September, are Bitcoin's weakest months on average, posting
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  slightly negative returns. With traders on holiday and
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  market activity dipping, prices can move sideways or even down
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  for a bit. This mirrors the September
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  effect in U.S. stocks, where September has been, on average
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  the worst performing month for equities.
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  Many believe it's due to investors returning from summer
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  vacation to realize gains or harvest losses before the year
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  ends. Cue the Green Day reference.
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  Wake me up when September ends. Just like the pleasant voice
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  announcer and robotic people explain, September is
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  historically the worst month for Bitcoin.
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  What is this mustache by the way?
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  So I kept seeing all this stuff about October on Twitter.
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  X or X and decided to make a video about it.
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  Maybe think of a question. So in October Bitcoin is
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  supposed to RIP right? So the question I had was what
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  time in October would it be better to buy?
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  That sent me down a rabbit hole with some data that I did not
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  expect. Did you know that from 2010 to
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  2024, September finished higher than it started in seven out of
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  15 years? That's 46.7%.
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  And the median September return is -3.5%.
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  The worst of it was in 2011. That was -38%.
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  Meanwhile, this reoccurring slump gives rise to the expected
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  rise that October is all about. In fact, from 2010 to 2024,
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  October finished higher 11 out of 15 years.
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  That's 73%. The median October return is
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  +15.4%. And the big one in 2010 was 200.
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  And 16% in 2017 it was 46.9% and in 2021 it was 27.4%.
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  All positive. So that told me something.
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  Maybe I should buy a bunch of Bitcoin in September and reap
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  the gains in October. You never sell bro.
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  Kind of Bitcoin Max or you. But this led me to an even
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  bigger question. Why?
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  Why is the Bitcoin price consistent with this rule set
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  76% of the time since its inception?
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  ChatGPT Why pattern? ChatGPT gave me several possible
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  reasons. 1 seasonality September is soft for risk assets.
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  Funds return from summer and rebalance, trimming high beta
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  exposure. Bitcoin rides that wave, and
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  this seems pretty intuitive, but I didn't consider the greater
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  macro framework before. What's funny about this is that
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  it's a trend that continues for several years prior to Bitcoin,
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  and it's sort of naturally evolved into the state.
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  Guess that's why they say. Sell in May and go away.
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  Sell in May and stay away. How about I?
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  Just go eat some hay. I can make things out of clay
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  and lay by the Bay. I just may.
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  I wonder if there's a correlation between the Bitcoin
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  price and the annual grade school schedules on any given
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  month. Like spring break would be a
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  time for selling and Thanksgiving break would be a
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  time for buying. Maybe I should make a video
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  about that. It's not a video, leave it
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  alone. Second on the list of the Chachi
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  PT reasons. Positioning and expiry. end of
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  September. Futures and options expire,
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  positions close, roles happen, risk gets tidied.
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  October opens up with cleaner slates and fresh buy programs.
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  Many of bitcoins listed derivatives, especially on the
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  CME, have monthly expirations on the last Friday of the month.
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  September is also a quarterly month.
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  March, June, September, December, they're all quarterly
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  months. So traders will typically
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  offset, hold to expiry and roll over till the next quarter.
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  In short, financially speaking, late September is a busy reset
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  point. Monthly plus quarterly contracts
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  expire on the last Friday. Positions get closed, rolled
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  over, and hedges unwind. Makes sense.
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  Me neither #3 from ChatGPT. Tax and accounting loss
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  harvesting and book cleaning ahead of Q4 can push Bitcoin
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  lower in late September. I'm guessing a lot of you out
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  there know what this means, so I'm just going to nod my head
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  like I also do #4 on Chat GPT's list macro calendar.
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  The new US fiscal year starts October 1st.
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  Budget headlines, central bank meetings, elevated uncertainty
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  de risk into September. Relief bids in early October.
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  Wait a second. So for the US federal
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  government, the fiscal year starts in October.
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  Maybe that's why we're always in discussions about the government
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  shutting down in October. Why does that happen?
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  ChatGPT? Congress moved the federal
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  fiscal year start to October 1st in the 1970s to give itself more
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  time to run the new formal budget process before the year
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  begins. Oh wow, I didn't know that.
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  Number 5 catalyst clustering. Wonderful alliteration.
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  Big upside headlines have repeatedly landed in October.
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  For example, Paypal's crypto rollout in October 2020, the
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  first US Bitcoin ETF launch in October 2021.
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  This is just a demonstration about how top down policies make
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  ripples throughout time. You don't release the summer
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  blockbuster in early February. You release it in July or August
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  or June. You know the summer months.
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  This is like a positive feedback loop.
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  Institutions capitalize on the idea that October is an up
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  month. Number six from ChatGPT the
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  means equal the flow of money read September to October is now
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  a thing. Traders pre sell into late
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  August, September, then re risk in October.
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  Congratulations U.S. financial apparatus, you've built a
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  season. Careful, that's Q. 4 Optimism
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  we'll. Fall back.
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  Under market. Efficiently.
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  If you remember one thing, remember this contrast.
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  September ends lower more often than not, and October ends
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  higher most of the time and usually by a lot.
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  Now strategies. Michael Saylor has a few
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  thoughts on this subject, but right before that, I want to
• 6:29
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• 6:34
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• 6:37
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• 6:43
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• 6:46
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• 6:51
  That's SAT 123.com. Even off grid you'll be on your
• 6:54
  terms. You know the why Bitcoin has
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  been consolidating and you know building it, you know, support
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  in the teens right now is because you've got $2.3 trillion
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  of Bitcoin that is unbanked. And so you've got a lot of
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  people that own a lot of Bitcoin, but they can't get a
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  loan against it. And because they can't get a
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  loan against it, the only you know, at the point that you all
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  of a sudden find yourself Bitcoin rich but Fiat poor, you
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  don't have a lot of dollars. We have a lot of Bitcoin and you
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  can't borrow against it. Then you think I have to go sell
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  it. So I think Bitcoins right now,
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  it's like this mag 7 startup where all the sudden all the
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  employees got insanely rich on penny stock options, but they
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  can't borrow against them, so they have to sell them.
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  And so they're selling. And then people are saying,
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  well, why are those employees selling the stock?
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  Is that a vote of not confidence, you know, in the
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  company? And the answer is no.
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  It's just they have kids to go to college.
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  They want to buy a house, right? They they want to live
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  comfortably. They want to do something for
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  their parents, and so right now I think that the selling is owed
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  crypto O GS that have had a lot of money for a long time.
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  They're selling 5% diversifying. They're doing something like
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  that and the market is absorbing all of that energy building its
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  support. The volatility is coming out of
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  the asset. That's a really good sign, but
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  because what you want for the asset to mature is for for lots
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  of long term capital holders, the big corporations, the big
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  institutions to buy. You want the early Ogs that
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  bought Bitcoin for a dollar or five or $10 to sell some or as
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  much as they need to so they feel comfortable.
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  You want the volatility to decrease so the mega
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  institutions feel comfortable entering the space and size.
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  And the conundrum is, well, if the mega institutions going to
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  enter, if the volatility decreases, it's going to be
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  boring for a while. And because it's boring for a
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  while, people's adrenaline rush is going to drop.
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  And it's like they had this big high and now the adrenaline is
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  wearing off and they're a little bit bearish.
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  But this is just a growing stage or, you know, natural for the
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  life cycle of an asset that's Montana that's monetizing like
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  this. Now, although there is a pretty
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  consistent trend that shows October is the time for
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  Bitcoin's price to RIP, there are some outliers that egg the
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  House of that theory. In 2011, September cratered -38%
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  and October didn't fix it. Still red.
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  The moral of the story? Seasonality is a tendency, but
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  it's not a guarantee. So maybe we allocate just a
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  little bit heavier in October for you.
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  DCA errs. Manage your risk, of course.
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  I mean, these charts aren't crystal balls, they're just
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  pixels on a screen. And obviously we need to be on
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  the lookout for breaking upcoming or real news in
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  October. Bro, we're not allowed to give
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  financial advice. I mean, it's, it's your money.
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  I'm not a financial advisor and stuff, you know, do what you
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  want with your own money and disclaimer, disclaimer,
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  disclaimer. Anyway, the point is not
• 10:06
  perfecting your trading strategy.
• 10:08
  It's preparing for it. But how else can I prepare for
• 10:11
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• 10:14
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  Book a call with one of their expert team members and start
• 10:40
  mining today at SAS mining.com. In closing, September tends to
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  test conviction, whereas October tends to reward preparation.
• 10:47
  If history rhymes, the best time to buy isn't mid-october.
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  It's before, like now, like yesterday.
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  But beyond all that, and all the knots and core battle aside,
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  it's always a good time to crack open your laptop and study
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  Bitcoin. And remember, historical
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  patterns do not equal guarantees.
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  And this is not financial advice.
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  I don't even know how to give financial advice.
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  I'm not a financial advisor. I'm just a man making videos in
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  my bedroom. I barely know what money is.
• 11:20
  Thank you so much for watching. If you like this video, you like
• 11:22
  what you see, you want to see more, make sure you hit that
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  like button below or you subscribe to the Simply Bitcoin
• 11:27
  channel for more content like this.
• 11:29
  We're coming out with it every single day of the week.
• 11:31
  Also, don't forget to hit that notification bell.
• 11:33
  I'm Oceans. This is beyond Bitcoin.
• 11:36
  Until next time.