Latest / Trumponomics / Has the US-Israel War With Iran Supercharged the EV Transition?

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Has the US-Israel War With Iran Supercharged the EV Transition? · Trumponomics

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  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios.
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  Speaker 2: Podcasts. Radio. News.
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  Speaker 1: I'm Stephanie Flanders, Head of Government and Economics at Bloomberg,
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  Speaker 1: and this is Trumponomics, the podcast that looks at everything
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  Speaker 1: in the economic world of Donald Trump. Well, in addition
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: to the human toll, we know that the economic effects
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  Speaker 1: of the Iran war have been a gigantic pain in
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  Speaker 1: the neck for many countries around the world, especially those
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  Speaker 1: like the UK and France, where national balance sheets were
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  Speaker 1: stretched to start off with. We're recording this on Wednesday,
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  Speaker 1: the 28th of October, and we just saw some of
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  Speaker 1: those effects as the UK finance minister delivered his budget.
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  Speaker 1: and had to spend money he didn't really have supporting
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  Speaker 1: households facing high energy costs. We also know that the
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  Speaker 1: Iran conflict hasn't been great for President Trump's party's prospects
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  Speaker 1: going into next week's midterm elections. The average price of
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  Speaker 1: gasoline at the pump in the US in President Trump's
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  Speaker 1: second term has now risen to almost exactly the average
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  Speaker 1: under President Biden, and it's heading higher if expectations of
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  Speaker 1: further attacks on Iran come true. But a more positive
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  Speaker 1: consequence of the war, one that the president definitely wouldn't
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  Speaker 1: have been aiming for, is that it has transformed the
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  Speaker 1: demand for electric cars and low carbon energy in many
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  Speaker 1: parts of the world. So has the Iran conflict single-handedly
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  Speaker 1: rescued the global energy transition? Be nice if it had.
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  Speaker 1: But before we get too excited, we probably need to
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  Speaker 1: introduce some facts into the conversation. Joining from New York,
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  Speaker 1: I have Craig Trudell, our in-house auto expert and a
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  Speaker 1: managing editor of business coverage for the Americas at Bloomberg News. Craig,
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  Speaker 1: thanks for coming on.
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  Speaker 2: Thank you for having me.
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  Speaker 1: And in Washington, Ethan Zindler, who leads the countries and
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  Speaker 1: policies research teams globally for Bloomberg NEF, which is our
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  Speaker 1: research unit dedicated to everything related to the energy transition.
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  Speaker 1: And before that, he served in the Biden administration as
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  Speaker 1: climate councillor to Secretary Yellen. Ethan, let me start with you.
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  Speaker 1: I painted this sort of rather very silver lining on
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  Speaker 1: what had happened to EV sales, electric car sales this year.
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  Speaker 1: I have to admit that part of why we're having
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  Speaker 1: this conversation is that you gave a presentation at the
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  Speaker 1: New Economy Forum where we both were in India the
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  Speaker 1: other day, And it just is quite rare that you
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  Speaker 1: can pinpoint so clearly the impact of a discrete event,
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  Speaker 1: namely the start of the war.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah. So the war, we consider to have been a
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  Speaker 3: true turning point or a catalyst for clean energy deployment.
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  Speaker 3: And look, to be clear, with energy, most things that
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  Speaker 3: you try and count in the energy world take time.
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  Speaker 3: So projects take years to develop. So sometimes... The sort
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  Speaker 3: of long-term effects of things are a little harder to
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  Speaker 3: keep track of. But the one thing that's sort of
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  Speaker 3: useful and nice about these technologies is so long as
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  Speaker 3: you give a consumer the ability to adopt them, then
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  Speaker 3: you do have some data that you can get closer
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  Speaker 3: to that is quicker. And in particular, one thing that
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  Speaker 3: we've tried to keep track of has been China's exports
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  Speaker 3: of clean energy goods. And why do I say China?
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  Speaker 3: Because China accounts for the vast, vast majority of the
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  Speaker 3: production of photovoltaics, for electric vehicles, and for batteries. They
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  Speaker 3: do a ton of wind, although most of the wind
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  Speaker 3: power equipment they make, they use domestically. So the one
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  Speaker 3: thing you can look at is the month-to-month export levels
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  Speaker 3: from China. And we have seen those grow from what
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  Speaker 3: was an average of about $ 15 billion per month in
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  Speaker 3: the 12 months leading up to the war. And that's
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  Speaker 3: jumped up to about an average of about $ 21 billion
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  Speaker 3: through July or so. So there's clearly been an increase
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  Speaker 3: in the ability to export. There's some other domestic reasons
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  Speaker 3: related to that. China changed an export tax rule that
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  Speaker 3: helped a little bit. So we thought the first month
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  Speaker 3: that might be the real reason for it. But actually,
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  Speaker 3: the consistent performance suggests the market has really expanded. And
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  Speaker 3: then on the demand side, we've certainly seen different markets
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  Speaker 3: around the world buying more EVs, installing more solar as well,
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  Speaker 3: and putting more batteries on the grid as well.
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  Speaker 1: Craig, Ethan mentioned that things were a bit different in
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  Speaker 1: the US. And knowing that you were coming on, I
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  Speaker 1: was sort of looking at some of the stories in
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  Speaker 1: your world. I knew we were going to be talking
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  Speaker 1: about the fact that EV sales had gone up a lot,
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  Speaker 1: but I couldn't help noticing that a lot of the
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  Speaker 1: stories that your team had been writing had been quite
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  Speaker 1: negative ones around Tesla and Rivian, the sort of the
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  Speaker 1: US-based electric car company. So how is the US different
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  Speaker 1: on this?
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, we're still kind of down in the dumps in
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  Speaker 2: the wake of President Trump's major changes in policy. With
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  Speaker 2: regard to electric vehicles, where you've seen these wild swings
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  Speaker 2: from one administration to the next. And if you go
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  Speaker 2: back to starting with Obama, the most ambitious fuel efficiency targets,
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  Speaker 2: Trump won, we slashed those. Biden comes in and he
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  Speaker 2: one-ups Obama. And actually, the Inflation Reduction Act was hugely
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  Speaker 2: consequential and effective in getting industry to really put serious
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  Speaker 2: amounts of money into standing up battery plants and electric
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  Speaker 2: vehicle factories. The rug has really been pulled out from
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  Speaker 2: under those manufacturers, both battery companies and the car makers.
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  Speaker 2: And we just have not seen the sort of boost
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  Speaker 2: that the rest of the world has. We, of course,
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  Speaker 2: have seen gas prices go up and voters seem poised
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  Speaker 2: to register their displeasure with that at the ballot box
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  Speaker 2: in early November. But it's still the case that people
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  Speaker 2: are paying a lot less for gasoline than, you know,
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  Speaker 2: say in the UK, where I think the equivalent that
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  Speaker 2: people pay there is around this time roughly $ 1. $ 8. 80
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  Speaker 2: a gallon if we sort of do the adjustment, whereas
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  Speaker 2: here we're bummed out to about $ 4 a gallon. So
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  Speaker 2: it's a very different calculus. So we're still seeing people
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  Speaker 2: buy a lot of very big pickups and big SUVs.
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  Speaker 2: The average cost of a new vehicle here is $ 50, 000 plus.
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  Speaker 2: Electric vehicles, of course, you can save significantly at the pump,
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  Speaker 2: but the average price that people pay is at a premium.
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  Speaker 2: And the payback period is still quite long. So we're
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  Speaker 2: actually seeing a lot more adoption of hybrids and some
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  Speaker 2: interesting things in terms of how that might change the
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  Speaker 2: pecking order, where Toyota is kind of giving GM a
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  Speaker 2: run for its money in ways we haven't seen in years.
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  Speaker 2: And Ford is meanwhile being threatened by Hyundai. So not
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  Speaker 2: fully electric vehicles, but sort of the Prius type hybrids
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  Speaker 2: being hot again.
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  Speaker 1: The U.S. market is more, I think I'm right in saying,
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  Speaker 1: is more or less closed to the Chinese electric vehicle.
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  Speaker 1: So they're being bought a lot in Europe because they're
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  Speaker 1: so much cheaper than the domestic cars, including regular petrol
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  Speaker 1: and diesel cars. Whereas in the U.S., you just don't
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  Speaker 1: have that choice.
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  Speaker 2: That's a huge factor. You mentioned Europe. We're seeing that
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  Speaker 2: in a significant way to where policymakers there are trying
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  Speaker 2: to address that and set up quotas. You're seeing it
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  Speaker 2: in all sorts of parts of the world. I was
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  Speaker 2: just in Sao Paulo in the last few weeks and
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  Speaker 2: you hail an Uber to the airport, you're very likely
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  Speaker 2: to have a BYD pick you up. So yes, much
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  Speaker 2: more affordable, very accessible, also well-appointed electric vehicles in those markets.
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  Speaker 2: A lot of them Chinese are really kind of taking
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  Speaker 2: over markets. Here in the US, we've really sort of
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  Speaker 2: put up a wall and it's been the case where
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  Speaker 2: that's been kind of a rare grounds for agreement across
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  Speaker 2: party lines where Nobody wants to see Chinese carmakers come in,
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  Speaker 2: in part because I think the writing's on the wall
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  Speaker 2: in terms of what that would do. We've seen significant
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  Speaker 2: job cuts in Europe's car sector, Volkswagen talking about tens
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  Speaker 2: of thousands of workers being let go in the years
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  Speaker 2: to come. And I think there's a real concern about
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  Speaker 2: what this would mean for the likes of GM and
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  Speaker 2: Ford manufacturing jobs if it were allowed for Chinese manufacturers
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  Speaker 2: to come into this market.
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  Speaker 3: And if you don't mind, I'm going to circle back
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  Speaker 3: on one quick thing on the U.S. just for a second,
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  Speaker 3: which is I would say on EVs, the U.S. don't
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  Speaker 3: sleep on the used electric vehicle market in the U.S.
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  Speaker 3: I think Craig's point is very well taken. The new
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  Speaker 3: EV costs can be high, but there are a lot
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  Speaker 3: of electric vehicles that are coming off of three-year leases
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  Speaker 3: in the U.S., by one estimate as many as a million.
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  Speaker 3: And the battery degradation on EVs has not been as
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  Speaker 3: bad as I think many people thought it was going
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  Speaker 3: to be. So you can get some very good deals
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  Speaker 3: on EVs. And I think it's a little harder to
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  Speaker 3: track the used EV sales. So it's something maybe to
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  Speaker 3: keep an eye on just going forward.
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  Speaker 1: Ethan, I want to sort of step back. We talk
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  Speaker 1: a lot about Chinese competition. And in fact, this time
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  Speaker 1: last week on the show, we featured my conversation with
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  Speaker 1: the German chancellor grappling with precisely this, and really the
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  Speaker 1: Germans taking a different approach than they have historically to
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  Speaker 1: Chinese competition because of the sheer scale. But at the
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  Speaker 1: same time, you could say it was kind of good
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  Speaker 1: for the global path to net zero to have people
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  Speaker 1: given a greater incentive to buy all these cheap Chinese
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  Speaker 1: vehicles and indeed cheap solar panels and other equipment. So
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  Speaker 1: if you just look at this year first and think
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  Speaker 1: about the impact on the demand for those things from
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  Speaker 1: the higher oil energy price, has the Iran war brought
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  Speaker 1: the net zero closer or has it just sort of
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  Speaker 1: changed the distribution?
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  Speaker 3: This is definitely creating motivation in a number of different markets.
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  Speaker 3: The effort in the US was to essentially create some
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  Speaker 3: kind of a walled garden for domestic manufacturers to be
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  Speaker 3: able to compete. You put up the 100% tariff. The U.S.
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  Speaker 3: has something called the connected car rules, which makes it
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  Speaker 3: hard for Chinese cars to get on the road. And
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  Speaker 3: then you provide a lot of fertilizer, namely in the
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  Speaker 3: form of what was a $ 7, 500 tax credit for people
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  Speaker 3: to buy new EVs. And that has now been removed.
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  Speaker 3: So you still have the walls up. but you don't
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  Speaker 3: have the sort of ground support there. It is interesting
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  Speaker 3: now to see what is taking place in Europe with
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  Speaker 3: what feels like a bit of a later kind of
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  Speaker 3: realization of the potential competition that Chinese cars pose for
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  Speaker 3: the market there. And my sense is that some of
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  Speaker 3: the automakers in Europe, particularly the German automakers, did not
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  Speaker 3: want to put up similar types of obstacles to Chinese
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  Speaker 3: cars in Europe because they viewed the China market as
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  Speaker 3: an opportunity for them But we are now increasingly seeing
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  Speaker 3: that the China automobile market is basically dominated by Chinese
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  Speaker 3: automakers themselves. And in fact, in China, about six in
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  Speaker 3: 10 cars being sold in recent months have been electric
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  Speaker 3: or plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. So it's really incredible how
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  Speaker 3: quickly they're moving. In fact, even three in 10 trucks
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  Speaker 3: are electric now or plug-in hybrid electric trucks as well
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  Speaker 3: in China. So it's moving very quickly over there. As
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  Speaker 3: a result of that, China has gone overnight from being,
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  Speaker 3: I don't know whether they were five or six, five
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  Speaker 3: years ago in terms of exporters, to being the number
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  Speaker 3: one exporting country in the world for automobiles. So they
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  Speaker 3: are a global powerhouse, and I think European automakers are
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  Speaker 3: understandably feeling concerned and a bit threatened. And of course,
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  Speaker 3: the question is whether it's really too late for automakers
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  Speaker 3: there and for automakers in the U.S.
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  Speaker 1: I know this is something that Bloomberg NEF is kind
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  Speaker 1: of constantly looking at and, you know, every year it
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  Speaker 1: sort of also sort of steps back and thinks about
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  Speaker 1: what the overall transition looks like. When we're looking back
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  Speaker 1: in a few years' time, obviously, we don't know what's
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: going to happen next. But if we were just considering
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  Speaker 1: the last two years, how has the path to net zero,
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  Speaker 1: assuming that we are still on that path somehow, been
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  Speaker 1: affected by this increase in energy prices, but also a
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  Speaker 1: sort of change of approach in the U.S.
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  Speaker 3: It's a really good question.
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  Speaker 1: I'm basically asking you to be a sort of multivariate
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  Speaker 1: economic model with a huge number of unknown variables.
• 12:14
  Speaker 3: Trump has done everything he can to try to revitalize
• 12:19
  Speaker 3: coal-fired power in the United States and to try to
• 12:22
  Speaker 3: slow the deployment of cleaner energy technologies. And this has
• 12:27
  Speaker 3: been done through legislation. And there's been some legal things
• 12:31
  Speaker 3: that have not been legal in terms of trying to
• 12:33
  Speaker 3: stop projects from getting completed. And then there's just kind
• 12:36
  Speaker 3: of what feels like sort of soft, for lack of
• 12:38
  Speaker 3: a better term, I don't know, intentional incompetence of not
• 12:43
  Speaker 3: responding for permit requests and things like that that have
• 12:47
  Speaker 3: been really obstacles to the industry. Nonetheless, we think in
• 12:53
  Speaker 3: the U.S. we'll see a record deployment of wind, solar,
• 12:57
  Speaker 3: and storage capacity this year. There are a lot of
• 13:01
  Speaker 3: other things, though, going on. And as I'm sure you've
• 13:04
  Speaker 3: talked about on this podcast before, Stephanie, you know, AI
• 13:06
  Speaker 3: and data centers are creating more demand for energy overall.
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  Speaker 3: So that kind of rising tide is lifting all boats
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  Speaker 3: and is definitely helping for clean energy in the United States. Globally,
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  Speaker 3: we are seeing a push in a number of different
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  Speaker 3: markets more aggressively towards these other sources of energy, And
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  Speaker 3: I think historically, if you think about the clean energy
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  Speaker 3: sector and what the industry has been, frankly, vocal and
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  Speaker 3: good at pushing has been this sort of net zero
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  Speaker 3: environmental narrative. They have not always been on the front
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  Speaker 3: foot about talking about energy security. But our view is
• 13:44
  Speaker 3: that these technologies, generally speaking, are energy secure. Once you
• 13:49
  Speaker 3: acquire your photovoltaic system and you put it on your
• 13:52
  Speaker 3: roof or you put a thousand of these panels out
• 13:55
  Speaker 3: in the desert someplace, they are effectively yours. So there's
• 13:59
  Speaker 3: a lot going on there, but I think our general
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  Speaker 3: view is, and we've done some research on this, that
• 14:03
  Speaker 3: as the world moves towards lower carbon sources of energy,
• 14:08
  Speaker 3: the need to import fuel goes down. We've looked at
• 14:11
  Speaker 3: a couple of scenarios, and even under what we would
• 14:13
  Speaker 3: kind of consider our BAU scenario, we think a number
• 14:17
  Speaker 3: of countries dramatically reduce their imports. And if you try
• 14:20
  Speaker 3: to get onto something that looks like a net zero path,
• 14:23
  Speaker 3: then that just moves a lot, lot faster.
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  Speaker 1: Craig, I guess I'd sort of end with you. In
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: quite a lot of ways, we've sometimes ended up thinking
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: that US policy under President Trump was curiously old fashioned.
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: It was all about the conquest of the Americas, or
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: at least parts of it, you know, reasserting US influence
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: over America. the rest of the continent, but also these
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: sort of natural resources, these very kind of old-fashioned industries.
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: As you've pointed out, Americans like their cars and they
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: often have sort of liked what we would call gas guzzlers.
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: I mean, you described being in Brazil. I mean, there's
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: a lot of places you can go now where you
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: get into some pretty nice electric cars. Some of the
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: most popular Chinese electric cars in the UK now are
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: the ones that look surprisingly like Land Rovers on the
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: basis of a joint venture with Land Rover. Is there
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: going to be any kind of grassroots demand for America
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: to catch up with the rest of the world on
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: some of these things? I mean, you said all the
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: politicians agree currently on keeping the Chinese cars out. But
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: if the result is that America has kind of crappier cars,
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: do you think in the end there'll be a bit
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: of a backlash?
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: I think we're seeing it already a little bit in
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: terms of very strategic moves on the part of some
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: of the Chinese manufacturers to get Americans into their cars
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: and let them loose with their iPhones and, you know,
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: sort of record content. And we did a great story
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: for Businessweek magazine earlier this year about how Americans are
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: starting to covet these very cheap, very, you know, well-appointed,
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: technologically advanced Xiaomi's, for example, right, where you can spend
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: some time in those and feel like they are very
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: up to snuff, if not better than a Tesla. And
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: we're seeing Chinese consumers actually opt for one over the
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: other already. So I do think that there is going
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: to be a consumer who is very online and increasingly
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: wondering why the heck we can't have these in the U.S.
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: I think it's also the case that we haven't really
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: seen a sort of credible response. returning a fire on
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: the part of manufacturers other than Tesla to really kind
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: of figure out what it takes to succeed in electric vehicles.
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: And so I think there's a sort of long-term concern
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: that I have as a native of Michigan that GM
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: and Ford over some decades now have largely kind of
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: retreated back to this very protected, very unique home market
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: where no one in the world buys as big trucks
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: and SUVs as we do. And, you know, if they
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: are unable to compete in these other markets that are
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: very competitive, where you do have to sort of offer
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: up an attractive but affordable smaller car, and GM and
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  Speaker 2: Ford just have demonstrated that they can't do that, what
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  Speaker 2: does that mean for their long-term future? I think that's
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: a serious cause for concern.
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: And I guess the reason why no politician is going
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: to start calling for the tariff barriers to come down.
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: Indeed, yeah. I think there's no shot of that, even
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: if every now and then we have heard President Trump say, yeah,
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: let them come in as long as they build here.
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: I think the Chinese manufacturers are wary of that too,
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: because they know how unpopular they are on Capitol Hill
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: and in state houses across the country.
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: Well, Ethan was right to say that we can't make
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: kind of easy analysis of the very big question about
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: the sort of broader pace of the global energy transition.
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: But we do see maybe some silver linings for net
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: zero in the Iran war. But I guess we're back
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: to the theme we've had over a few months, a
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: lot of silver linings for China. Ethan, Craig, thank you
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: so much.
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: Thank you.
• 17:57
  Speaker 3: Thank you very much. It's been great to be here.
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to Trumponomics from Bloomberg. It was hosted
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: by me, Stephanie Flanders, and I was joined by Craig Trudell,
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: a managing editor for Bloomberg News, and Ethan Zindler, head
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: of country and policy research for Bloomberg NEM. Trumponomics was
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: produced by Samar Sadi and Moses Andam, with help from
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: Amy Keene and Magnus Henriksen. Sound design was by Blake
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: Maples and Kelly Gary, and the head of Bloomberg Podcasts
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: is Cheryl Brumley.