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Ryan Bridge: Why today’s GDP number is not irrelevant · Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Why today's GDP number is not irrelevant old, yes, backward
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  Speaker 1: looking by its nature, but irrelevant. No. We tip to grow.
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  Speaker 1: By the way, it around zero point three zero point
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: four percent for quarter four of twenty twenty five, so
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: this is to the end of December. It would mark,
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: barring any surprises, the second straight month of per capita
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: growth on the trot, and it tells you that number
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: does if we get it that the average in common
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: standard of living was ticking up on an on per
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: person basis, albeit from a low base, which has been
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: the problem we've had for the last few years. This
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: is important because it tells you we're on the move,
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: that we've been fighting back against recession. Some say the
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: numbers is irrelevant because of the war and the oil
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: supply that's currently before us, but there are reasons to
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: be optimistic. The Reserve Bank is likely to leave interest
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: rates where they are in three weeks when they next meet,
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: and there's a fork in the road. If inflation bumps,
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: there'll be temptation to hike rates later. But we can
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: still grow at a clip under three percent. Of two
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: things happen. One we don't panic and a self fulfilling
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: fuel shortage ensues, and two we learn the lessons of
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: liberation day. Trump's actions are chaotic and often quickly reversed.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: We're looking at alternative oil supplies as we speak. Our
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: current stocks are described as stable at the moment. The
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: tariff shock wasn't so much about a direct effect. It
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: was the knock on business and consumer confidence that got us.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: Last year. People spent less, business paused hiring, investing because
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: of the uncertainty, and it blew over. Yes, this is different,
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: it involves more balls in the year, but the fundamental
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: lesson is the same. If we freak out, if we
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: let uncertainty rule our lives, we exacerbate the very problem
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: we're trying to avoid in the first place. So I'm
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: relatively optimistic. For me once, shame on you. For me twice,
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: shame on me. So much of economics is basically just
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: human feelings when it boils down to it. So when
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: today's GDP read comes out, let's take stock of where
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: we've been. Let's pat ourselves and our businesses on the
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: back for our contributions. That number is not irrelevant. It
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: was hard thought. Confidence is key, and if we think
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  Speaker 1: we can do it, we will. For more from Early
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: Edition with Ryan Bridge. Listen live to News Talk Set
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: B from five am weekdays, or follow the podcast on
• 2:19
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