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Stocks Trade Near Record Highs · Bloomberg Intelligence

0:02
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Penl Podcast. I'm Paul swing you.
0:05
Speaker 1: Along with my co host Lisa Brahma Wicks. Each day
0:07
Speaker 1: we bring you the most noteworthy and useful interviews for
0:10
Speaker 1: you and your money. Whether at the grocery store or
0:12
Speaker 1: the trading floor. Find a Bloomberg Penl podcast on Apple
0:15
Speaker 1: podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, as well as
0:17
Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com. Well, what a year it's been
0:20
Speaker 1: for equity investors, all three major US innescies all up
0:24
Speaker 1: north of twenty fantastic performance. What is driving this? In
0:29
Speaker 1: fact even more risk? People seem to be more willing
0:32
Speaker 1: to take on more risk just over the last several weeks.
0:34
Speaker 1: To get a sense of what is driving this, we
0:35
Speaker 1: welcome our next guest, Jeff you Ubs, Wealth manager's head
0:39
Speaker 1: of the UK Investment Office. Jeff, thanks so much for
0:41
Speaker 1: joining us. Give us your sense of kind of what
0:44
Speaker 1: is driving this embracing of risk we've seen really just
0:48
Speaker 1: over the last four or five weeks that's taken this
0:50
Speaker 1: market even a leg higher. Well, I think she thinks,
0:54
Speaker 1: firstly in a context is quite important. I think as
0:56
Speaker 1: we approach her and you know, people are going to
0:59
Speaker 1: ride up until so Christmas Eve, people are going to
1:01
Speaker 1: see quite strong divergences between their year on year numbers
1:05
Speaker 1: versus their year to date numbers, right, And you know
1:07
Speaker 1: that does tell you we started the year on a
1:10
Speaker 1: relatively risk offfitting positioning was soft and the things I'm
1:13
Speaker 1: just going to turn out, you know, not quite as
1:16
Speaker 1: bad as expected, helped by doses of monastery policy. Of course,
1:20
Speaker 1: while the trade issue continue to linger throughout, there are
1:24
Speaker 1: some signs, or world more than some signs that this
1:27
Speaker 1: might just get to a point where we don't have
1:30
Speaker 1: to worry as much about further escalation from here. So
1:33
Speaker 1: I think you know that there's a plus, a combination
1:35
Speaker 1: of you know, okay numbers, you know, both in the
1:37
Speaker 1: macro micro level just kept people in risk. How much
1:41
Speaker 1: can you focus on what's going on around the rest
1:42
Speaker 1: of the world given everything that's going on right where
1:45
Speaker 1: you are, with the election coming up in less than
1:47
Speaker 1: a months, right, So I mean now that we heard
1:51
Speaker 1: the Prime Minister speak today in front of businesses, and
1:55
Speaker 1: clearly people on the ground who have been a sad
2:00
Speaker 1: certain by the uncertainty from Brexit of last three years
2:03
Speaker 1: or so, they would like to see some clarity up ahead,
2:06
Speaker 1: So of course you know all parties offering out, you
2:09
Speaker 1: know their campaign and policies, and right now I think
2:13
Speaker 1: most companies and individuals will take up with a grain
2:15
Speaker 1: of salt and that again the hope is that cloud
2:18
Speaker 1: of uncertainty from Brexit and the life will be lifted.
2:20
Speaker 1: But then, of course, and for an open economy like
2:22
Speaker 1: the UK, the global environment matters just as much, um
2:25
Speaker 1: so with anie on the elections here, but also hoping
2:28
Speaker 1: that the international economy picks up as well, not least
2:30
Speaker 1: helped by by any upcoming face one trade deal. I'm
2:33
Speaker 1: struggling to sort of put into perspective the plan proposed
2:38
Speaker 1: by the liberals, by by Labor, the idea for a
2:41
Speaker 1: big fiscal spending plan that is being viewed by at
2:44
Speaker 1: least Sterling as a negative but potentially is being viewed
2:49
Speaker 1: as a way to jump start the economy as what
2:51
Speaker 1: do you think of it? Well, there are two sides
2:54
Speaker 1: of this, you know. Certinly, um I would acknowledge it's
2:57
Speaker 1: very hard to sell a currency and index or in
2:59
Speaker 1: a economy into a fiscal similar right, um So those
3:03
Speaker 1: who are positioned negatively and towards the end of two
3:05
Speaker 1: thousand and seventeen will have strong memories of that. Say, now,
3:09
Speaker 1: that could be a tailwin, you know, for the UK economy.
3:12
Speaker 1: But on the other hand, it's some of the other
3:14
Speaker 1: issues in which you could be considered you know, quite
3:18
Speaker 1: a novel, right, you know, such those near share ownership plans,
3:21
Speaker 1: you know, such as the nationalization of certain sectors, those
3:24
Speaker 1: things with which have been branded around and which over
3:27
Speaker 1: the medium to longer term on a structural basis and
3:30
Speaker 1: may be interpreted as no less some positive. So I
3:33
Speaker 1: think that put together is I'm taking a bit of
3:36
Speaker 1: a gloss off any potential of fiscal stimulusum But again
3:39
Speaker 1: I think in general, heading into an election right now,
3:42
Speaker 1: people will take any promises with the grain of salt.
3:44
Speaker 1: But both parties do have expansionary policies on the spending side,
3:48
Speaker 1: that has to be clear, and I think, you know
3:50
Speaker 1: that there's a hope that could jumps out the economy
3:52
Speaker 1: on top of them some sort of finalization with the
3:56
Speaker 1: relationship with Europe. Jeff, one of the data points that
3:59
Speaker 1: we've received only is that it maybe we're getting some
4:01
Speaker 1: stabilization in some of the key European economies. We kind
4:04
Speaker 1: of saw some data in October that was you know,
4:07
Speaker 1: not worse kind of less bad? Is that the beginning
4:10
Speaker 1: of a trend, do you think or not? We are
4:13
Speaker 1: not ready to jump on that yet, right, So you
4:17
Speaker 1: know two things there. Firstly, it's stabilization on an absolute
4:21
Speaker 1: but also relative basis as well. So if you look
4:24
Speaker 1: at most expectations in the still world, the most surprising disease,
4:27
Speaker 1: I think expectations have been very very weak, you know,
4:29
Speaker 1: throughout the last and a few courses or so in Europe.
4:31
Speaker 1: You know, as a result, it becomes less hard to
4:34
Speaker 1: you know, surprise you know, to the upside, or at
4:36
Speaker 1: least it becomes harder to surprise at the downside. By one,
4:39
Speaker 1: expectations and positioning is solo. Secondly, you know there is
4:43
Speaker 1: a clear difference between no more downside versus upside. Right.
4:46
Speaker 1: So there again we need to see a fiscal pickup,
4:48
Speaker 1: we need to see a demand pick up. And given
4:50
Speaker 1: our China growth forecast that you know, five five point
4:53
Speaker 1: some percent also um which is very important to the
4:56
Speaker 1: Euros in economy, and our US growth forecast is not
4:58
Speaker 1: that strong either. So I think put together with a
5:01
Speaker 1: cyclical with an export external demand exposed to economy, such
5:05
Speaker 1: as the eurozones, the global environment next year is just
5:09
Speaker 1: not let's just say hot enough a comfort yet Eurozone
5:12
Speaker 1: policymakers and UM also the government officials looking at fiscal
5:16
Speaker 1: I think they still have a lot of work to do.
5:17
Speaker 1: Not hard enough for comfort, certainly for President Trump. Just
5:21
Speaker 1: putting out a tweet about this meeting that we've been
5:23
Speaker 1: reporting that he had with FED Chair J. Powell. Just
5:26
Speaker 1: finished a very good and cordial meeting at the White
5:28
Speaker 1: House with J. Powell the Federal Reserve. Everything was discussed,
5:31
Speaker 1: including interest rates, negative interest low inflation, easing, dollar strength
5:35
Speaker 1: and its effect on manufacturing, trade with China, EU and others, etcetera.
5:41
Speaker 1: Do you have any thoughts on that? Um, Well, it's interesting,
5:45
Speaker 1: UM so, I haven't seen the tweet myself that it's
5:47
Speaker 1: interesting that the negative interest rates have popped into the conversation.
5:50
Speaker 1: So um. Clearly the President will have a view on this,
5:53
Speaker 1: um looking at how it's being implemented around the world,
5:57
Speaker 1: but the Fed might still want to push back against it.
5:59
Speaker 1: I dea being so just not hot enough. That seems
6:02
Speaker 1: to be the theme from central banks. How much can
6:05
Speaker 1: an ultra accommodative and sort of re upping of another
6:08
Speaker 1: easing cycle. How much cannot boost markets from here? Well, um,
6:14
Speaker 1: I think the would. I wouldn't say that there's a
6:16
Speaker 1: consensus on this right now that there's a strong body
6:19
Speaker 1: for opinion. If you even look at the divergence in
6:21
Speaker 1: the UCB the viewers, Um, you need demand from the
6:24
Speaker 1: fiscal side, so drugs, you know, parting um um uh
6:29
Speaker 1: shot if you want to call it. That was actually
6:32
Speaker 1: to the establishment. So monetary policy can achieve its objectives,
6:35
Speaker 1: you know, can get closer to inflation, you know, maybe
6:37
Speaker 1: funemployment in the U S context, once fiscal starts to
6:40
Speaker 1: do its job right, So monetary policy creative conditions for
6:44
Speaker 1: I would say, structure reform and fiscal policies to actually
6:47
Speaker 1: jumpstart demand. So thinking that that's where it's you know,
6:50
Speaker 1: I'll be interesting. I don't believe Chairman Powell will want
6:52
Speaker 1: to in your tweet in as many words that would
6:55
Speaker 1: stressing them. Maybe some changes in the government spending side
6:58
Speaker 1: that could be very very helpful towards effect achieving its
7:01
Speaker 1: objectives as well. So I think you know, need to
7:03
Speaker 1: have some given take it. But of course we're only
7:05
Speaker 1: hearing what can monetary policy give Where a central bankers
7:08
Speaker 1: would say, well, what can the politicians provide as well?
7:10
Speaker 1: That part of the equation is always missing somewhat. Thank
7:14
Speaker 1: you so much for being with us and for commenting
7:16
Speaker 1: on the tweet that I sprung upon you that we
7:18
Speaker 1: were all sprung up a President Trump. Jeff You at
7:21
Speaker 1: UBS Wealth Management, head of UK Investment Office joining us
7:24
Speaker 1: from London. Steve Judash has joining us for his season
7:43
Speaker 1: of Prediction. I HT Wealth Chief executive Officer, Steve. I'm
7:48
Speaker 1: watching the capitulation of Morgan Stanley and other bears saying,
7:52
Speaker 1: you know, next year might not be so bad in markets?
7:56
Speaker 1: Do you agree? Do you think something substantial has shifted
7:59
Speaker 1: to make you more optimistic about what we should see
8:02
Speaker 1: tomorrow next year? I think the only difference, maybe say
8:06
Speaker 1: from nine months ago, is how many interest rate hikes
8:09
Speaker 1: or um cuts that we've actually seen, because no one
8:11
Speaker 1: was predicting that a year ago. But aside from that,
8:14
Speaker 1: we've got to help the economy. That has changed a
8:17
Speaker 1: whole lot. Fundamentally. The big unknown has been the trade war,
8:20
Speaker 1: but I think just about everyone is predicting that that
8:22
Speaker 1: and has been predicting that that would work out eventually.
8:25
Speaker 1: You've got the two biggest economies. They have to work
8:28
Speaker 1: out terms at some point. It's not gonna happen overnight.
8:30
Speaker 1: But I don't think anything is fundamentally changed to say,
8:34
Speaker 1: oh my, oh my, I think next year is gonna
8:35
Speaker 1: be wonderful. I think we should start expecting a little
8:38
Speaker 1: bit more stability and a little bit more leveling out
8:41
Speaker 1: of market returns. We're not going to see another tax cut,
8:45
Speaker 1: and we're not going to see three more raid cuts
8:47
Speaker 1: next year, So I don't see anything fundamentally that's massively
8:50
Speaker 1: different for next year. What I find interesting is we've
8:52
Speaker 1: actually seen maybe over the last four or five weeks,
8:55
Speaker 1: people rotating out of defensive sectors and maybe take on
8:59
Speaker 1: a little a bit more risk was some cyclicals, and
9:01
Speaker 1: I found that interesting. And given how late we are
9:04
Speaker 1: in the economic cycle, what do you how do you
9:06
Speaker 1: view that? The only thing that I would argue on
9:09
Speaker 1: that is how late we are in the economic cycle,
9:12
Speaker 1: because we've had a lot of false stimulus that's pushed
9:16
Speaker 1: us through this. So it's not like we've had a
9:18
Speaker 1: ten year run of just normal, stable growth or anything
9:21
Speaker 1: like that. We've had lots of brake cuts, we've had
9:23
Speaker 1: a lot of tax changes over the years, We've had
9:25
Speaker 1: a lot of FED helping out the situation a lot.
9:27
Speaker 1: So this isn't your run of the mill, you know,
9:30
Speaker 1: three to five year cycle that it goes up and down.
9:33
Speaker 1: Our economy right now, the world economy right now is
9:35
Speaker 1: in a good place, and so sustaining that for a
9:38
Speaker 1: number of years in the future, barring massive events, isn't
9:41
Speaker 1: out of It isn't unreasonable to believe that. I think again,
9:46
Speaker 1: I think it's unreasonably believe we're gonna see a twenty
9:48
Speaker 1: percent return again next year. I think that's just silly.
9:50
Speaker 1: Do we even predict something like that? But but we're
9:53
Speaker 1: in a nice place here, So getting out of the
9:56
Speaker 1: defensive side and going more on the aggressive is something
9:58
Speaker 1: that we've actually been preaching about a year now. So
10:01
Speaker 1: what's your highest conviction trade heading into Okay, I'm not
10:06
Speaker 1: gonna harder percent tell you this is my highest conviction,
10:08
Speaker 1: but I think it's the most interesting trade, and that's
10:10
Speaker 1: the streaming wars that are going on. It's the biggest
10:12
Speaker 1: shake up in the entertainment industry that maybe since cable
10:15
Speaker 1: tv um. It used to be Netflix and nobody. Now
10:18
Speaker 1: it's Netflix and virtually everyone, and so there's going to
10:22
Speaker 1: massive winners and there's gonna be some massive losers in there,
10:25
Speaker 1: and that's what we've been focusing a lot of our time,
10:27
Speaker 1: g Ion. You've got companies like Netflix, who you know, frankly,
10:31
Speaker 1: when we're looking at companies, we look at them, do
10:32
Speaker 1: you make money today? Are you going to make more
10:34
Speaker 1: money tomorrow? Netflix is losing money today when they had
10:37
Speaker 1: no competition. Now everyone's in the game. There's only so
10:40
Speaker 1: many eyeballs, there's only so many hours people can stream.
10:44
Speaker 1: It's hard to see how they're going to continue to
10:45
Speaker 1: be a winner in that sector. Whereas you've got other
10:47
Speaker 1: companies like Disney um who have tons of content and
10:51
Speaker 1: have the ability to absorb losses that they're all going
10:54
Speaker 1: to lose money and streaming in the next five years.
10:56
Speaker 1: Anyone who says otherwise is lying to you. They're going
10:58
Speaker 1: to lose money, but it's gonna be who can sustain
11:01
Speaker 1: those losses with other parts of their companies and then
11:03
Speaker 1: be the ultimate big winner at the end. That's where
11:06
Speaker 1: it's been fun and that's where we've been focusing a lot. So,
11:10
Speaker 1: you know, one of the big questions, and we talk
11:11
Speaker 1: about these streaming wars, is to get a sense of
11:14
Speaker 1: how this is all going to shake out over the
11:16
Speaker 1: next you know, five plus years, how many operators will
11:19
Speaker 1: actually be in the market, How much can this market support?
11:22
Speaker 1: How many players do you think ultimately will be left
11:26
Speaker 1: making money in this business? That's the key point. He
11:29
Speaker 1: disnailed it. They're making money because you've got companies like
11:33
Speaker 1: Amazon and Apple that can float their streaming forever essentially
11:36
Speaker 1: because they make so much money on other parts. How
11:38
Speaker 1: long are they willing to sustain those losses? I think
11:41
Speaker 1: this is where you see a normal new sector or
11:43
Speaker 1: new part of an industry develop. Everyone jumps in. You'll
11:47
Speaker 1: start seeing the shaking out, and then you'll start seeing
11:49
Speaker 1: consolidating like we saw in network TV and things along
11:52
Speaker 1: those lines when cable came out. Um, three four players
11:58
Speaker 1: at most right now, what are we projected for next?
12:00
Speaker 1: You're nine players that are going to be in the game.
12:02
Speaker 1: That's not sustainable. So are you a Netflix bear? Is
12:05
Speaker 1: that what this is? I'm not. I'm not gonna sit
12:08
Speaker 1: here and tell you I think Netflix is bad. I'm
12:09
Speaker 1: gonna tell you that I have a real problem problem
12:12
Speaker 1: getting into a company that loses money and it doesn't
12:14
Speaker 1: show me a clear path on how they're going to
12:15
Speaker 1: make money in the future. Netflix, to me, is a
12:19
Speaker 1: very dangerous play. They need to hit some massive home runs,
12:23
Speaker 1: massive massive, and I don't like the gamble. So in
12:25
Speaker 1: that situation, I think Netflix is a gamble right now.
12:28
Speaker 1: If they hit a bunch of home runs, that they
12:29
Speaker 1: get some massively popular content that everyone jumps on board with,
12:33
Speaker 1: they could sustain this. They can make it through. But
12:35
Speaker 1: but you're betting. You're betting on the home run, and
12:38
Speaker 1: that's a tough bat right now. It's a very tough
12:40
Speaker 1: But Steve, how do you think Apple is going to
12:42
Speaker 1: play this business? Do you expect them to? Kind of?
12:45
Speaker 1: I think they said they're gonna invest six billion dollars
12:47
Speaker 1: in programming, and that's a big number, but it's quick. Frankly,
12:50
Speaker 1: one could argue it's not big enough. Do you think
12:51
Speaker 1: they need to go out and make a big acquisition
12:54
Speaker 1: in the entertainment space? I do. I completely agree with
12:57
Speaker 1: what you said. It's a big number, but I don't
12:59
Speaker 1: know if that it's necessarily big enough. I mean, how
13:01
Speaker 1: much money is Disney put into it, not just right now,
13:04
Speaker 1: but over the last ten years buying content. Apple doesn't
13:07
Speaker 1: really have any content well, I mean, they've got some,
13:09
Speaker 1: but they don't have enough content right now what could
13:12
Speaker 1: be interesting? This is way speculation because you were saying
13:14
Speaker 1: in the beginning you're looking for the season of speculation.
13:17
Speaker 1: What happens when Netflix is losing money for a couple
13:19
Speaker 1: of years and Apple has a bunch of cash sitting
13:20
Speaker 1: on the sidelines and they need content. Well, that's this
13:23
Speaker 1: is what people are expecting. That it's some or putting
13:26
Speaker 1: out there postulating that what happens if Apple buys Netflix?
13:30
Speaker 1: Short of that, though, I'm wondering if you on the
13:33
Speaker 1: flip side are a Disney bull I am. I like
13:37
Speaker 1: companies that make money and that show me how they're
13:39
Speaker 1: going to make more money in the future. Right now,
13:41
Speaker 1: they have more content than just about anybody. They've got
13:44
Speaker 1: so many different paths to make money on that content
13:47
Speaker 1: that even if right now no one really talks about
13:51
Speaker 1: this enough, I don't think right now everyone's okay with
13:53
Speaker 1: buying a whole bunch of different streaming products, you know, five, six, seven,
13:56
Speaker 1: whatever different areas and you're paying thirty bucks a month
13:59
Speaker 1: for this and forty for that whatever. Um, what happens
14:01
Speaker 1: when the economy isn't doing so well, what happened when
14:04
Speaker 1: unemployment isn't at record lows and people have to start
14:06
Speaker 1: cutting back a little bit? You know, your your rank
14:09
Speaker 1: and file. People are going to have seven eight streaming
14:11
Speaker 1: things anymore, They're gonna have three, maybe two, And so
14:15
Speaker 1: that is where I want to be positioned for the
14:18
Speaker 1: companies that can sustain that. So yes, to answer your question, Um,
14:21
Speaker 1: Disney is an attractive company because even if they lose
14:24
Speaker 1: money on streaming, they make so much more money on
14:26
Speaker 1: everything else that it doesn't really matter. And they can
14:28
Speaker 1: write out that storm because right now we're in goldilocks situation.
14:32
Speaker 1: What happens when we're not in the goldilocks situation anymore? Steve,
14:35
Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us giving us your thoughts
14:37
Speaker 1: on kind of what you're looking for out to twenty
14:41
Speaker 1: as we start thinking about rolling over the calendar. Here
14:43
Speaker 1: Steve doodash I HT Wealth Management, Chief executive Officer, joining
14:46
Speaker 1: us on the phone once again. This year in technology
15:05
Speaker 1: stocks are leading the market. We have the nastack up
15:08
Speaker 1: eight percent this year. Let's talk tech. Let's and we
15:12
Speaker 1: do that. We do with Dan Ives from web Best
15:14
Speaker 1: we web Bush Securities. Dan thanks so much for joining
15:17
Speaker 1: us Technology again has been the big, big driver of
15:20
Speaker 1: this move up in equity markets this year. Let's start
15:23
Speaker 1: with Apple. You know, it's just a fantastic story up
15:26
Speaker 1: six year to date. It's just amazing. The big issue
15:30
Speaker 1: I have is this company, as you we've talked about before,
15:34
Speaker 1: is really making a big pivot from a phone reliant
15:37
Speaker 1: company to a services company. But that's a lot of
15:40
Speaker 1: risk in that story there, But it seems like the
15:42
Speaker 1: markets giving Apple more than the benefit of the doubt. Yeah,
15:46
Speaker 1: and you're not alone. And I think when I look
15:49
Speaker 1: at Apple, it's the one to punch the rocket. Gibraltar
15:52
Speaker 1: continues to be iPhone, and I think what you're seeing
15:55
Speaker 1: here at iPhone eleven tracking head expectations. It all about
16:00
Speaker 1: the install base and now it's about monetizing that through services.
16:04
Speaker 1: And that's part of the rereading that we're seeing with Apple.
16:08
Speaker 1: And that's why right now the bears continue to be
16:10
Speaker 1: in hibernation mode and termed to what's happened with stock. Okay,
16:14
Speaker 1: so you see more positivity ahead, Yet whenever we see
16:18
Speaker 1: a trade headline that's negative, the tech socks are the
16:21
Speaker 1: ones that sell off. First. What if we do not
16:23
Speaker 1: get a trade truce what how much does that affect
16:26
Speaker 1: your outlook? Yeah, that's fifteen dollars per share in terms
16:29
Speaker 1: of right now what I view as the overall overhang
16:34
Speaker 1: from trade on Apple. It's the poster child in terms
16:38
Speaker 1: of the US trying to trade war, but it's about
16:41
Speaker 1: a fifteen overhang right now. So I think if we
16:44
Speaker 1: do not get any sort of deal, that's sort of
16:47
Speaker 1: how I've used sort of a risk speak into the stock.
16:50
Speaker 1: So Dan, let's go back to the old, you know,
16:53
Speaker 1: trying to true phone business for Apple. Give us a
16:56
Speaker 1: sense of how big five G could be two Apple.
17:00
Speaker 1: We hear so much now across so many different technology
17:03
Speaker 1: verticals about five G and how it's gonna be the
17:05
Speaker 1: next big thing in tech. What does it mean for
17:06
Speaker 1: the likes of Apple? In my opinion, the best five
17:11
Speaker 1: G play is Apple because when you look at five
17:14
Speaker 1: G and how their position going to think about nine
17:18
Speaker 1: million consumers right now. In terms of the install based
17:22
Speaker 1: we think about four million of those are gonna upgrade
17:25
Speaker 1: over the next twelve day tea months. The first part's
17:27
Speaker 1: gonna be out from eleven, But five G I believe
17:30
Speaker 1: it's really gonna be a super cycle for for Apple.
17:33
Speaker 1: That's why I still view this is a stock. I
17:36
Speaker 1: think it's gonna have a three in front of it
17:37
Speaker 1: going into next year. Can you walk through that a
17:40
Speaker 1: little bit more. How five G will sort of supercharge
17:44
Speaker 1: Apple shares? Yeah, A lot of it is really the
17:47
Speaker 1: applications in the infrastructure. It's gonna be five G related.
17:52
Speaker 1: And for the average consumer, especially within the install base,
17:55
Speaker 1: to get access to that five G, you're gonna need
17:58
Speaker 1: to be in a five G phone. We think next year,
18:01
Speaker 1: based on our checks throughout China and Taiwan, there's gonna
18:05
Speaker 1: be four or five G footes. So for a consumer,
18:09
Speaker 1: they're gonna upgrade on five get Apple and that what
18:13
Speaker 1: that's really doing giving them a renaissance of growth. That's
18:18
Speaker 1: the highway. The highway to five G is a smart phone.
18:22
Speaker 1: I'm struggling to understand five G applications as being so
18:26
Speaker 1: incredibly different. I mean, basically, it's a robot gonna get
18:29
Speaker 1: beamed into my home and make me breakfast. I mean,
18:31
Speaker 1: or how how different is this going to be from
18:34
Speaker 1: four and three G. It's I think it's a paradigm
18:38
Speaker 1: change in terms of five gene. I think the best
18:41
Speaker 1: way of thing about is more smart cities, autonomous capabilities.
18:45
Speaker 1: I'm talking about a lot of technologies that today are
18:48
Speaker 1: more on the white board. Over the next five ten years,
18:52
Speaker 1: it's really gonna be five G n E. But then
18:54
Speaker 1: that's why when you look at the leader and that
18:56
Speaker 1: at the Apple. Obviously Samsung continues to be there as
18:59
Speaker 1: well as the Chinese consumers. But that's why I thought
19:02
Speaker 1: is so important in terms of where Apple sits in
19:05
Speaker 1: the stock Well, Dan, one part of the services story
19:08
Speaker 1: for Apple that's less clear to me is their video strategy,
19:12
Speaker 1: their TV strategy. I know they have Apple tv Plus
19:15
Speaker 1: and there's some shows there, but to me, that's not it.
19:18
Speaker 1: I mean, that's not gonna cause me to switch or
19:22
Speaker 1: to add to my Netflix and to my Disney Plus.
19:25
Speaker 1: What do you really think is the play for Apple
19:28
Speaker 1: in the video business? Yeah, I think the first part
19:31
Speaker 1: of the play is distribution. They want to be the
19:34
Speaker 1: distribution platform for screaming. That's the first step. And then
19:39
Speaker 1: I think if you look at it right now, that's
19:41
Speaker 1: why the bundling is so important in terms of the
19:43
Speaker 1: new iPhone. In terms of the video side, right now,
19:46
Speaker 1: they lack content. But I do not believe that that
19:49
Speaker 1: would be like that in a year from now, I
19:51
Speaker 1: think they're going to dedicate six billion per year and
19:54
Speaker 1: I still think they acquire more of a content play
19:58
Speaker 1: an MGM, A Sony, a mind Gate over the next year.
20:03
Speaker 1: Who's the big loser from five G who's not going
20:05
Speaker 1: to keep up? Look, I think in terms of the
20:08
Speaker 1: big loser right now, in terms of five G, this
20:12
Speaker 1: is really going to be an Apple verse Samsung. I
20:14
Speaker 1: think if you look so far, I think Samsung has
20:17
Speaker 1: fumbled it a bit in terms of where they were
20:21
Speaker 1: versus Apple, and I think it's not going to be
20:24
Speaker 1: a winner take all. But I think right now Samsung
20:28
Speaker 1: has been a bit disappointing on the five G side,
20:30
Speaker 1: and when you look at five G, I think right
20:32
Speaker 1: now it's gonna be a lot of winners. The question
20:35
Speaker 1: is verizing a T and T which benefits from five
20:37
Speaker 1: G more. And I think that's why the next six
20:40
Speaker 1: or twelve months are really going to determine from strategically
20:43
Speaker 1: who's best position. But right now, I continue to think
20:46
Speaker 1: Apple is furnt of the reas in terms when it
20:49
Speaker 1: comes to five G. Dan, I've thank you so much
20:51
Speaker 1: for being with us. Dan, i'ves director of Equity Research
20:54
Speaker 1: at Wedbush Securities. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg PL podcast.
20:59
Speaker 1: You can see scribe and listened to interviews at Apple
21:01
Speaker 1: Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Paul Sweeney.
21:05
Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. I'm Lisa Abram Wohits.
21:07
Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at Lisa Abram Woits One. Before the podcast,
21:10
Speaker 1: you can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio