Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Scooch and Chad Talk Week 16 NFL Games

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Scooch and Chad Talk Week 16 NFL Games · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites. It's the podcast. I'm Chad Melman
0:15
Speaker 1: from the Action Network and it is Wednesday morning, which
0:21
Speaker 1: means I am joined by bookmaker to the United States
0:27
Speaker 1: of America Bookmaker Emeritus, the Bookmaker Laureate. I feel like
0:34
Speaker 1: that should be a post nominated by the federal government
0:39
Speaker 1: from the Orleans representing BOYD Gaming, Mr Bob Robert Scucci.
1:00
Speaker 1: Game is that Bob Scucci singing? Is that? Mr Bob Scucci?
1:15
Speaker 1: Is that an original? Scootles? That's a that's an original song.
1:21
Speaker 1: You wrote an original song and you wrote it about
1:23
Speaker 1: your wife. I did you sound good in that song?
1:30
Speaker 1: You sound really good? I love it? Thank you. I
1:37
Speaker 1: wrote it, produced it, played the instruments everything it sounds.
1:41
Speaker 1: How many instruments were there? Uh? Well, we just double tracked,
1:46
Speaker 1: you know. I did the guitar, then I did rhythm
1:48
Speaker 1: than lead, and then we did a little keyboards on
1:51
Speaker 1: it some you know strings effect. The action you got
1:56
Speaker 1: that night must have been ridiculous. YEA, oh my god,
2:11
Speaker 1: that's too good. When did you write that song for
2:14
Speaker 1: your wife? Um? Maybe three three years ago, so you
2:20
Speaker 1: were not married yet. You guys got married, what two
2:22
Speaker 1: and a half years ago too. Yeah, and so uh
2:27
Speaker 1: tell me the process here. You know, I gotta tell you,
2:32
Speaker 1: she's not gonna be happy about playing that song. She
2:34
Speaker 1: never wanted that was like supposed to be her song.
2:37
Speaker 1: It was just for very personal and uh, when we
2:42
Speaker 1: made it and I'd let her listen to it, she
2:44
Speaker 1: was just you know, overwhelmed. But she always wanted to
2:47
Speaker 1: be a very personal, private song. And then of course
2:51
Speaker 1: one of the other school Les members decided to post it,
2:54
Speaker 1: which she wasn't too pleased about. So fortunately she doesn't
2:58
Speaker 1: listen to the podcast, so maybe she I was gonna say,
3:00
Speaker 1: you better make sure she's not listening to the podcast, brother,
3:03
Speaker 1: because there's gonna be a lot more people listen to
3:05
Speaker 1: that song now. She will be upset. I can tell
3:09
Speaker 1: you you won't be getting any that night. That there
3:14
Speaker 1: won't be any no, no, no scooch action for sure.
3:21
Speaker 1: Oh my god, that is so funny. She must have
3:25
Speaker 1: heard that song and just been beside herself because I
3:29
Speaker 1: know you, I know for a fact, you've never written
3:33
Speaker 1: a song for anybody before in your life. No, no, yeah,
3:37
Speaker 1: she was. She was in tears. It was pretty emotional.
3:40
Speaker 1: How did you actually want to sing it? To kind
3:45
Speaker 1: of make sure that answer first and then then answer
3:47
Speaker 1: my question. She wanted you to sing it where she
3:49
Speaker 1: wanted me to sing it at our wedding, But there
3:52
Speaker 1: would have been no way. I wasn't that wasn't that
3:56
Speaker 1: polished and entertainer to get up in front of all
3:58
Speaker 1: those guys at the wet Oh my god. And so
4:03
Speaker 1: she must have just been like, how did you lay
4:07
Speaker 1: out that you were gonna play the song for her?
4:09
Speaker 1: What was the scenario? Well, she knew I was meeting
4:13
Speaker 1: with the guys you know, once a week and just
4:15
Speaker 1: kind of messing with stuff, and I hadn't really written
4:17
Speaker 1: anything before, but so I wanted to try and write
4:21
Speaker 1: something that was both good and very personal. Um, it
4:25
Speaker 1: turned out to be a little bit better than I thought.
4:27
Speaker 1: I was just going to present it to her, But uh,
4:31
Speaker 1: what we did was when we recorded it on all
4:33
Speaker 1: the tracks, we just put it on a you know,
4:36
Speaker 1: a little drive and I told her I wanted to
4:40
Speaker 1: show her something that night when I got home and
4:42
Speaker 1: just put it in the laptop and let her listen
4:44
Speaker 1: to it, and she was just kind of overwhelmed by it.
4:47
Speaker 1: And then a couple of times after that I played
4:49
Speaker 1: it live and couple of times before that, a couple
4:53
Speaker 1: of times after that, you got a couple of times.
4:55
Speaker 1: You know what I'm saying. Listen, you want to in
5:00
Speaker 1: a lady over, you gotta write her a song. Hey.
5:03
Speaker 1: If you write yeah, know that that's a pent right,
5:07
Speaker 1: You write a good song and even if you write
5:09
Speaker 1: a bad song, and they'll be overwhelmed. It's so true.
5:14
Speaker 1: Mm hmm. In my house, I just say to my
5:17
Speaker 1: wife what do you think, and she just she gives
5:22
Speaker 1: me the ghost sign or the no sign, and that's
5:26
Speaker 1: that's that's the extent of the romance right now. Yeah,
5:31
Speaker 1: this is how my kids are learning about sex. Uh.
5:33
Speaker 1: The other day, my twelve year old uh was on
5:36
Speaker 1: like you know, uh uh, what do you call like
5:41
Speaker 1: a house party? House party is like an app where
5:42
Speaker 1: they all talk on to each other at the same time,
5:45
Speaker 1: and they were all daring each other to do stuff
5:49
Speaker 1: like inappropriate in front of their parents. So my twelve
5:53
Speaker 1: year old came down and was yelling, Dad, Dad, I
5:57
Speaker 1: have an erection Jesus. But he had all his kids,
6:04
Speaker 1: all his buddies on the phone. It was all his
6:06
Speaker 1: buddies on the phone. I'm like, so, what are you
6:09
Speaker 1: gonna do with it. Man, kids are just out in
6:18
Speaker 1: the open now with stuff. I can't even imagine one
6:22
Speaker 1: of his buddies, that dare was to go into the
6:25
Speaker 1: kitchen where his mom and older brother were and start
6:28
Speaker 1: making sex noises. No way did he do it. Did
6:35
Speaker 1: he get grounded after that? No? The mom looked at
6:37
Speaker 1: him like, what what are you doing? And the brother
6:40
Speaker 1: just started laughing hysterically. Hey got to interrupt her real
6:49
Speaker 1: quick because I'm going to go to seven and a
6:51
Speaker 1: half on the Browns here as we speak. Okay, right,
6:56
Speaker 1: we had to wait here about that headline change here.
7:00
Speaker 1: I had to actually work there for a minute. Here
7:03
Speaker 1: we go, Well let's get into it. Let's use that
7:07
Speaker 1: as a transition alright. Uh whoa, that was a crazy
7:11
Speaker 1: weekend last weekend. One of us went five and one
7:13
Speaker 1: who could have been? Was it me? I believe it
7:16
Speaker 1: was the only game I lost last weekend. Was the
7:18
Speaker 1: first game I was convinced I might win, and um
7:22
Speaker 1: that was the Dolphins plus seven and a half. I
7:26
Speaker 1: won every other game, I bet, I can tell you
7:28
Speaker 1: right now I had hold on last week I had
7:33
Speaker 1: um Carolina plus six one that I had uh Bears
7:38
Speaker 1: minus five one that on appreciation for Joe Philbin and
7:41
Speaker 1: the Bears defense for the sack and then the field
7:44
Speaker 1: goal with fifteen seconds left. UM I won Tampa Bay
7:47
Speaker 1: plus eight and a half. Here's the interesting thing for
7:50
Speaker 1: the middle monster MILLI Monster, I forgot. I had picked
7:55
Speaker 1: the Ravens minus seven and a half and Pickskin pick
7:57
Speaker 1: him against my best friend Map. And then on Sunday morning,
8:00
Speaker 1: I bet the Bucks plus eight and a half. The
8:02
Speaker 1: only way I win both bets is if that game
8:04
Speaker 1: wins eight. It landed ate and appreciation to appreciation to
8:09
Speaker 1: John Harbaugh who when they were on the seven yard
8:11
Speaker 1: line with two minutes left just took a knee for
8:12
Speaker 1: the final two minutes. I had the under forty three
8:15
Speaker 1: on the Giants and Titans. Thank you p J. Walsh
8:18
Speaker 1: from the Action Network. Down let our free, free, free
8:21
Speaker 1: app because he convinced me that morning that was the play.
8:24
Speaker 1: And then I had indeed minus three um in a
8:27
Speaker 1: shut out of the Cowboys. So there you go, almost
8:31
Speaker 1: a clean m and I think we we both had
8:36
Speaker 1: our scootro Let pics as well. We did. We both
8:40
Speaker 1: hit our scootro Let pics. You had forty nine and
8:44
Speaker 1: you had the Colts. Yeah right, yep, And we have
8:50
Speaker 1: both liked the Pittsburgh and the Fort Pittsburgh and yeah,
8:54
Speaker 1: and the forty Niners. Yeah. I know. Initially you went
8:57
Speaker 1: with the Bills, though, and you change you change your
8:59
Speaker 1: mind on that. It was a good thing because I
9:01
Speaker 1: think that was the only game of the board where
9:04
Speaker 1: the point spread did not make a difference. So every
9:08
Speaker 1: game on the board, if the underdog uh covered, they
9:12
Speaker 1: won the game outright. If the favorite one, the favorite
9:14
Speaker 1: covered every game except that one totally toats Mick goats. Um.
9:22
Speaker 1: Let's see on the year. I think I'm doing pretty
9:25
Speaker 1: well on the year. I think I'm like, I've gotta chat,
9:29
Speaker 1: I gotta do the math on this. Let's get to
9:31
Speaker 1: the games. Hold on, I'll try to do the math
9:33
Speaker 1: on this at the end of it. Uh, but I
9:35
Speaker 1: think I'm having a pretty good year. I'm all said
9:37
Speaker 1: and done. Let's talk about the Saturday games. Great one
9:40
Speaker 1: coming up, Los Angeles Chargers minus four and a half
9:43
Speaker 1: against said Baltimore Ravens in appreciation. I like the Chargers
9:49
Speaker 1: minus four and a half. The money is on the Chargers,
9:51
Speaker 1: the public is on the Chargers. I think they are
9:54
Speaker 1: so much better than the Ravens. This line is whack yo. Yeah,
10:02
Speaker 1: we're gonna be on on the highside on this one. Uh.
10:04
Speaker 1: The only question is, you know, they're the Chargers are
10:08
Speaker 1: without Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen, so that it may
10:13
Speaker 1: affect it. Uh you know, they've been trying to get
10:16
Speaker 1: through without them the last couple of couple of games.
10:18
Speaker 1: So but but I mean that that finished last week.
10:23
Speaker 1: It just showed the uh, the grit of this team.
10:26
Speaker 1: And uh, you know at home now against the against
10:29
Speaker 1: the Ravens, they need the game. I mean they're still
10:33
Speaker 1: they they're still just in a dog fight with Casey.
10:36
Speaker 1: Uh So, so this one's gonna come right down to
10:38
Speaker 1: the I mean, they're they're they're really gonna be at
10:41
Speaker 1: the Ravens in this one. And uh, the public is
10:44
Speaker 1: on them, the the wise guys are on them. I
10:46
Speaker 1: see the line going up a little bit. Um, I
10:48
Speaker 1: don't see much support for the Ravens in this one.
10:50
Speaker 1: I'm surprised you haven't moved the line yet. Yeah, you
10:56
Speaker 1: know what, don't do it. No no, no, no no
10:57
Speaker 1: no no no no no no no no no no,
11:00
Speaker 1: don't do it. While we're on the phone, Okay, Oh,
11:04
Speaker 1: it doesn't matter because the podcast isn't coming out till tomorrow.
11:07
Speaker 1: I want to make sure I get this before it's
11:08
Speaker 1: not gonna be Yeah, all right, are you doing it?
11:15
Speaker 1: I want to test the waters anyway. I want to see, uh,
11:18
Speaker 1: I want to see what they do with the five.
11:19
Speaker 1: Probably nothing, but let's see move it to five. All right,
11:28
Speaker 1: Tennessee Titans minus ten over the Washington. Can I call
11:31
Speaker 1: him the Washington Dead Skins yet? Well, they came alive
11:36
Speaker 1: Sunday or at least one game, and had it not
11:41
Speaker 1: been for that game, oh totally. But and and I
11:46
Speaker 1: think the only thing that uh is dissuading the public
11:51
Speaker 1: from just burying us on Titans money is the fact
11:53
Speaker 1: that the Redskins did come alive for that for that
11:55
Speaker 1: one game. So uh, ten is it's just such a
11:58
Speaker 1: big number for team that uh, you know, typically don't
12:02
Speaker 1: put up a ton of points. So, um, well, we'll
12:05
Speaker 1: still end up needing the Redskins for a little bit.
12:07
Speaker 1: With the two games on Saturday, it'll just be favorite
12:10
Speaker 1: too favorite and parlay's and teasers and everything. So we'll
12:13
Speaker 1: still end up needing the Redskins. But it's hard to
12:16
Speaker 1: go much higher than than than ten in this one.
12:19
Speaker 1: A lot of money on the Skins right now, we
12:22
Speaker 1: got a little, a little sharp money, but not not
12:25
Speaker 1: a lot. And and with us the ticket account isn't
12:28
Speaker 1: really overwhelming on on the Titans. Like I said, had
12:32
Speaker 1: had the Redskins gotten blown out again, I think you
12:35
Speaker 1: know that this line would would have been a little
12:37
Speaker 1: bit higher and we would have seen a lot more
12:39
Speaker 1: money on the Titans. But it just takes one week
12:42
Speaker 1: of somebody seeing a game that just kind of puts
12:46
Speaker 1: a little doubt in their mind. And uh, that's the
12:48
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14:09
Speaker 1: Let's talk about the NFC North champion Chicago Bears three
14:13
Speaker 1: and a half point favorites on the road against the
14:16
Speaker 1: San Francisco forty Niners. You know what's interesting. Last week
14:21
Speaker 1: I was so sure of the Niners, so so sure.
14:25
Speaker 1: And I don't know if it was the spot or
14:27
Speaker 1: the fact they were playing a division rival, or that
14:29
Speaker 1: you know, they had some had some evidence that they
14:32
Speaker 1: could perform well against the Seahawks, I don't like him
14:34
Speaker 1: as much against the Bears in the same exact spot. Um,
14:38
Speaker 1: with that number, I agree with you. And and we
14:42
Speaker 1: actually opened, uh four and a half, and we went
14:46
Speaker 1: down to three and a half off of some some
14:50
Speaker 1: sharp plays early, but then it just went completely back
14:53
Speaker 1: up the other way. Um, we're back up to four.
14:57
Speaker 1: I went to four just before do in the show
15:00
Speaker 1: here went back up to four, and I could see
15:03
Speaker 1: this line going up with ticket count wise, you know,
15:06
Speaker 1: take the sharp guys out of the out of the
15:07
Speaker 1: mix for a second. And this is the most lopsided
15:10
Speaker 1: game on the board in terms of percentages of bets.
15:14
Speaker 1: It's just overwhelming, like fifteen to one Bears to forty nine.
15:19
Speaker 1: So I think everybody feels forty. Niners had their big
15:22
Speaker 1: upset last week with Seattle to pull out to giant
15:26
Speaker 1: upsets back to back, but against this team, which is
15:30
Speaker 1: arguably one of the most improved teams, it's gonna be
15:34
Speaker 1: a tall task. It's gonna be all this will be
15:36
Speaker 1: our biggest game of the board. This is the only thing.
15:42
Speaker 1: What's that they just won the division, so there's not
15:46
Speaker 1: a lot of incentive. Maybe some incentive for placement in
15:51
Speaker 1: UM in the conference, but I think it's gonna be
15:54
Speaker 1: a hard task for them to get the two seed. Uh.
15:59
Speaker 1: And they lost Eddie Jackson, and I think that's a big,
16:03
Speaker 1: big problem for the Bears going forward. Yeah, legitimate concerns.
16:09
Speaker 1: And uh, I don't I don't like needing the Niners
16:13
Speaker 1: in this spot. But uh, like I said, I'm gonna
16:17
Speaker 1: be quick to move it back up. I thought I
16:18
Speaker 1: opened it on the high side. Uh, and I'm gonna
16:21
Speaker 1: be quick to move it even higher. I know there's
16:24
Speaker 1: some three and a half still out there, so at
16:26
Speaker 1: minus four we're one of the highest. But I'm gonna
16:28
Speaker 1: be quick to move it back up. Streak in Cleveland.
16:33
Speaker 1: Streak in Cleveland, the Brown seven and a half point
16:35
Speaker 1: favorites against the Bungles. Yeah. I thought for sure when
16:40
Speaker 1: we put up seven that that would be about as
16:42
Speaker 1: high as we could go on this one. And like
16:44
Speaker 1: I said at the top of this show, I just
16:46
Speaker 1: went to seven and a half. We were just getting
16:48
Speaker 1: some pretty big money from the sharp guys on Cleveland.
16:52
Speaker 1: Once again, we talked about the last couple of weeks,
16:54
Speaker 1: they've just been the wise guys have loved him they
16:58
Speaker 1: loved him even during the Owen sixty in year, so
17:01
Speaker 1: then no reason to get off from now. At some
17:04
Speaker 1: point they're just gonna be laying too much though, and
17:06
Speaker 1: the and the value's got to be out of them
17:07
Speaker 1: by now. But uh, seven and a half, that's that's
17:11
Speaker 1: quite a bit for the Browns. Massive. I love this team, though,
17:14
Speaker 1: I can see why they're on them for entirely different
17:16
Speaker 1: reasons these days. Kay, if you want to expand on that, well,
17:24
Speaker 1: I guess that will. I mean you said, the Wise
17:26
Speaker 1: guys have always loved the Browns. It used to be
17:28
Speaker 1: they love the Browns because they were so in theory
17:32
Speaker 1: undervalued compared to who they were playing, because you knew
17:36
Speaker 1: the public was going to be all over whoever the
17:38
Speaker 1: Browns played. Now they're on the wise. The wise guys
17:41
Speaker 1: are on it because the Browns are actually pretty good
17:43
Speaker 1: and there's probably still a little bit of some correction
17:47
Speaker 1: to be had by the bookmakers because of their record
17:50
Speaker 1: and sort of because of where you had the Browns
17:52
Speaker 1: rated when the season began. It's hard to sort of
17:55
Speaker 1: adjust them as quickly as you would like, as you've
17:58
Speaker 1: taught me, um so I that's why you're still getting
18:00
Speaker 1: wise Guy Brown's money, well said, well done. I like it,
18:06
Speaker 1: unlike you. I listen on the podcast and Jenny, Yeah, yeah,
18:15
Speaker 1: New England Patriots are two basically two touchdown favorites over
18:18
Speaker 1: the Buffalo Bills thirteen points. I don't know, brother, Yeah,
18:28
Speaker 1: at first glance, it looks like a lot of points,
18:31
Speaker 1: and the Patriots aren't the same dominant Patriots team we've
18:34
Speaker 1: seen in years past. But Buffalo has just been so
18:38
Speaker 1: erratic as we we've seen, winning straight up as double
18:42
Speaker 1: digit underdogs before the season and being competitive in some
18:47
Speaker 1: games getting blown out in others. Uh. So, we opened
18:51
Speaker 1: what we thought was high thirteen and the first couple
18:54
Speaker 1: of bets out of the gate were plus the thirteen
18:57
Speaker 1: and we're down to twelve and a half now. It
18:59
Speaker 1: was all sharp money on the bills. Uh The ticket
19:01
Speaker 1: accounts about three to one at least at our places.
19:06
Speaker 1: Uh three three on the Patriots for everyone on the bills.
19:10
Speaker 1: So um, the public is still gonna be laying this number,
19:13
Speaker 1: but the big money's on the Bills, and I would
19:17
Speaker 1: suspect that it stays that way, especially in the last
19:20
Speaker 1: couple of weeks. I don't think I've ever seen so
19:23
Speaker 1: many double digit underdogs winning the game straight up in
19:26
Speaker 1: one season, much less on the last two or three weeks.
19:30
Speaker 1: So I think the public is very aware of that
19:32
Speaker 1: as well. So it's gonna give them a little pause
19:34
Speaker 1: before laying twelve and a half or thirteen on almost
19:37
Speaker 1: any game. Yeah, for sure, I'll probably be in the
19:40
Speaker 1: bills if I play it. Maybe i'll avoid it. Tell
19:45
Speaker 1: you what else I'm avoiding. The Indianapolis Colts is nine
19:48
Speaker 1: and a half point favorites against the Giants. Yeah, this
19:52
Speaker 1: was one of the games where we had probably the
19:54
Speaker 1: biggest adjustment off of just one week. You know, normally
19:57
Speaker 1: we don't make big adjustments with out an injury, but uh,
20:02
Speaker 1: just the dominance of the Colts in the last game,
20:05
Speaker 1: we know it's going to weigh on the public's mind
20:07
Speaker 1: a little bit. So you know, once you get past
20:09
Speaker 1: I mean, the true line on this one should really
20:12
Speaker 1: be in the seven and a half eight range, so
20:15
Speaker 1: about a point and a half higher than probably what
20:17
Speaker 1: it should be, and we're already seeing indications that it's
20:20
Speaker 1: a little on the high side. Got some wise guy
20:23
Speaker 1: plays on the Giants. Not really enough to move it yet,
20:27
Speaker 1: but I see this line coming down to nine eight
20:30
Speaker 1: and a half as bad as the Giants are. Uh,
20:34
Speaker 1: it's still a lot of points, uh for the Giants
20:36
Speaker 1: to be getting. But is there But then again, we
20:39
Speaker 1: know what's that go ahead and you go. I was
20:41
Speaker 1: just gonna say. The public we know is gonna be
20:43
Speaker 1: on on the Colts though, especially after that performance last week,
20:46
Speaker 1: and we can see it already in some of the
20:48
Speaker 1: parlays and the ticket account. Is there anything statistically that
20:53
Speaker 1: makes you look at this game and say it's overvalued
20:55
Speaker 1: or is it purely a public perception number? Just a
21:01
Speaker 1: public perception in terms of the betting patterns of the
21:04
Speaker 1: two teams the last couple of weeks, they've been betting
21:06
Speaker 1: against the Giants every week. They've been betting on the
21:08
Speaker 1: Colts every week. Uh So if the if the raw
21:11
Speaker 1: number is eight, you know there's going to be a
21:13
Speaker 1: slight inflation knowing that they're gonna be betting against the
21:16
Speaker 1: Giants and on the Colts. So it's that that's really
21:19
Speaker 1: the only the only adjustment there for the only reason
21:23
Speaker 1: for the adjustment. Next game is interesting. There's been some
21:25
Speaker 1: speculation this line has moved wildly. It opened green Bay
21:30
Speaker 1: minus three and a half. Now it's Jets minus two
21:32
Speaker 1: and a half speculation Aaron Rodgers won't play. Why did
21:36
Speaker 1: this number move? Well, that that was it, and we
21:40
Speaker 1: actually have it off the board right now and be
21:42
Speaker 1: until we're we get a little bit more accurate information.
21:45
Speaker 1: So that the big move was obviously on the news
21:48
Speaker 1: that he might miss with the groin injury, and uh
21:53
Speaker 1: so just playing it on the safe side for now.
21:54
Speaker 1: We've got plenty of time to kind of make adjustments
21:57
Speaker 1: and put it back up. But we already got hit
21:58
Speaker 1: on the Jets a couple a couple of bets um
22:01
Speaker 1: that that caused the move, and we tried to move
22:04
Speaker 1: it aggressively, but um, we're just gonna keep it off
22:07
Speaker 1: for now. Groin injury, good, groin injury. That's a tough one.
22:16
Speaker 1: Do you know what I'm talking about? Do you know
22:18
Speaker 1: what I'm talking about now? Is that a movie? Oh
22:20
Speaker 1: my god, it's it's from a sitcom from about forty
22:24
Speaker 1: years ago called Cheers and Ted Danson who played a
22:29
Speaker 1: bartender and an old picture for the Red Sox. Uh
22:34
Speaker 1: he ran the bar and he was famous in Boston
22:38
Speaker 1: and he took a job as a sportscaster and one
22:41
Speaker 1: night on the air, he did a rap and was
22:44
Speaker 1: talking about a player being out because of a groin injury,
22:47
Speaker 1: and he's like, he's out because of a groin injury.
22:51
Speaker 1: Good groin injury. I watched that show religiously and I
22:56
Speaker 1: just for some reason, I don't remember that episode, but
23:00
Speaker 1: sounds like I could, I could picture it. I think
23:02
Speaker 1: you'd like it. Uh. How did the Minnesota Vikings become
23:05
Speaker 1: a five and a half point favorite in any game
23:08
Speaker 1: at this point here? Well, I guess they just did
23:09
Speaker 1: have a nice wing against the Dolphins. So yeah, it's
23:12
Speaker 1: funny how just one game can do that. And that's
23:14
Speaker 1: when I'm saying that recent recency bias, especially if it's
23:19
Speaker 1: a dominant win and you try to not to take
23:21
Speaker 1: too much into account, but you know the fact that
23:23
Speaker 1: the Lions really uh didn't look good as as well
23:27
Speaker 1: as uh, you know, makes it an adjustment on both sides. So, uh,
23:32
Speaker 1: we were We know the public is going to be
23:34
Speaker 1: laying this five and a half. They already are, so
23:36
Speaker 1: it seems like the right number. We've got a few
23:39
Speaker 1: bets from some guys that we respect on the Lions,
23:42
Speaker 1: so this will be one of those games where the
23:44
Speaker 1: the sharp guys will take the home dog and the
23:47
Speaker 1: public lay the favorite. Wait the favorite? That was a
23:52
Speaker 1: good book. There was a book called lay the Favorite.
23:54
Speaker 1: It's pretty good. Yeah. Uh that curse both of those teams,
24:00
Speaker 1: the Lions and the Vikings two weeks left. I just
24:04
Speaker 1: can't see myself wanting to get involved with either of
24:05
Speaker 1: those teams the rest of the season. Houston Philadelphia, however, Yeah,
24:15
Speaker 1: great matchup. This line's moved up opened to pick Eagles
24:19
Speaker 1: minus one and a half. Yeah. Them. We have more
24:23
Speaker 1: money on this game than any game on the board
24:25
Speaker 1: so far this week. Like, like you said, we opened
24:27
Speaker 1: pick went up to one and a half, and I
24:30
Speaker 1: could understand, uh, how the move in terms of how
24:33
Speaker 1: how good Phillies looked. Um with I mean even with
24:37
Speaker 1: with Nick Cole nick Foles at quarterback. I mean they
24:40
Speaker 1: actually looked better, So uh why not? We saw the
24:44
Speaker 1: same thing happened at the end of last year and
24:46
Speaker 1: led him to a Super Bowl. So um, I understand
24:50
Speaker 1: the move that the public is pretty well divided on
24:53
Speaker 1: this one. I mean, we have the exact same amount
24:55
Speaker 1: of bets on both sides. It's just that the sharp
24:57
Speaker 1: guys obviously like Philly in this one and drove the
25:00
Speaker 1: lineup I want to play used in this game, do
25:05
Speaker 1: you well, I think you'll probably see a two and
25:07
Speaker 1: a half. Um. I don't know that it will quite
25:09
Speaker 1: get to three, but um, it looks like it's going
25:12
Speaker 1: in one direction. The story of my life? Was that
25:19
Speaker 1: a song by one direction? Yeah? Okay, Dallas Cowboys seven
25:25
Speaker 1: point favorite without Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Yeah, nobody likes the
25:31
Speaker 1: Bucks anymore, and I can understand why. Boy, that was
25:34
Speaker 1: the game that you uh you got the middle of
25:36
Speaker 1: last week. Huh Chad Middleman monster? Uh no support for
25:43
Speaker 1: the Bucket Buccaneers whatsoever? So, um, minus seven we think
25:48
Speaker 1: is probably a solid number. It'll take uh some pretty
25:51
Speaker 1: big bets to get us off of this number. Uh,
25:55
Speaker 1: we don't want to get middled again. And then the
25:57
Speaker 1: Buccaneers seemed like they're the team to cause us the
25:59
Speaker 1: most problems with the medals. It's true. You know why.
26:04
Speaker 1: They're swashbucklers. They're looking to steal your money. Oh yeah, yeah,
26:11
Speaker 1: I did that. I did that right there. Mm hmm.
26:15
Speaker 1: It's pretty clever. All right, ladies and gentlemen, it's time
26:19
Speaker 1: to officially officially announced what I've been teasing on the podcast.
26:23
Speaker 1: For the last week or so, we are doing a
26:25
Speaker 1: live episode live episode of the Favorites Monday, January I
26:31
Speaker 1: mentioned it's live. It's gonna be in New York City
26:34
Speaker 1: at Follies Bar. Folies Bar in Manhattan. As a loyal
26:38
Speaker 1: listener of the podcast, you my friends are invited. Some
26:42
Speaker 1: of you have tweeted at me already and you can
26:44
Speaker 1: continue to do that. But all you have to do
26:48
Speaker 1: to get invited go to Action network dot com slash favorites.
26:54
Speaker 1: That is Action network dot com slash Favorites. I'm going
26:57
Speaker 1: to be there. Black Jack is going to be there,
26:59
Speaker 1: Paula Duke is going to be there. Jeff Schwartz is
27:01
Speaker 1: going to be there. Scooch is writing a song from
27:04
Speaker 1: the Scoots for the podcast. Blackjack and Paula Duka are
27:07
Speaker 1: gonna be a tending bar pouring drinks. That's gonna be dangerous.
27:10
Speaker 1: Some other special guests are gonna join. You can maybe
27:13
Speaker 1: guess who what's gonna be. It's one of the podcast favorites.
27:16
Speaker 1: We're gonna preview the Super Bowl. We're gonna talk about
27:18
Speaker 1: all the props, that's the main thing. Any kind of
27:20
Speaker 1: betting that goes with it. If You're going to be
27:22
Speaker 1: in New York City on again Monday, January at six pm.
27:26
Speaker 1: Go to Action network dot com, slash favorites and R
27:30
Speaker 1: s v P and you will get more details to
27:33
Speaker 1: access the event Action network dot Com slash Favorites. Of course,
27:38
Speaker 1: you can also keep adding me at Chad Millman on
27:40
Speaker 1: Twitter and I'll just individually add you to the list. Scooch,
27:45
Speaker 1: let's get back to business. I'm curious about this Atlanta
27:49
Speaker 1: Carolina game because it opened it three and a half.
27:52
Speaker 1: It's been bent down to two and a half. Why
27:54
Speaker 1: is all the wise guy money coming in on Carolina?
27:57
Speaker 1: It makes no sense, I mean coming in on Atlanta
27:59
Speaker 1: make no sense to me. Well, I mean they did
28:03
Speaker 1: upgrade Julio Jones to be probable, and I think initially,
28:07
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know that he'd actually cause it.
28:10
Speaker 1: It's part of the part of the move. But uh,
28:14
Speaker 1: I think possibly they didn't like what they saw in Carolina,
28:20
Speaker 1: uh Monday night against against the Saints. Um, I know
28:25
Speaker 1: you're just not high on this Falcons team, but uh,
28:28
Speaker 1: I think I give them a lot more credit than
28:30
Speaker 1: than you do. Why give me a reason why? Well,
28:36
Speaker 1: especially if Julio Jones is uh is healthy and playing.
28:39
Speaker 1: He's just he's just a monster. Well, I'm not going
28:41
Speaker 1: to bet him less than a field goal. I wouldn't know.
28:45
Speaker 1: I wouldn't play him at two and a half. But
28:46
Speaker 1: but like I said, this season that the point spread
28:49
Speaker 1: almost doesn't matter. I don't think there's ever been a
28:51
Speaker 1: season like this where they're less percentage, where the percentages
28:55
Speaker 1: of games that the point spreads don't matter are are
28:58
Speaker 1: as you know, high as this year. That is an
29:02
Speaker 1: interesting conversation, That is an interesting one to have. I
29:07
Speaker 1: am going to look into details on that. You should,
29:10
Speaker 1: because I've I've never seen it. I mean, even with
29:13
Speaker 1: such big favorites. Um, the you know, a team that's
29:17
Speaker 1: laying sixteen, they either win by sixteen or the dog
29:20
Speaker 1: wins straight up. You would think that those are the
29:22
Speaker 1: games that you would have the most occurrences of a
29:25
Speaker 1: team winning and not covering. And yet it's so it's
29:29
Speaker 1: almost the opposite. Yeah, it's so interesting. Um, all right, Miami,
29:37
Speaker 1: it's a four point favorite over the Jacksonville Jaguars and
29:39
Speaker 1: the money is coming in on the jagus look a
29:44
Speaker 1: little bit, um not so much with us, A very
29:46
Speaker 1: little action on this game. I think this is the
29:49
Speaker 1: least bet game on the board, at least for us. Anyway,
29:51
Speaker 1: Oh no, I see one at the very bottom there.
29:54
Speaker 1: It looks like we got a corner TV game. Yeah. Yeah,
30:00
Speaker 1: it's hard to get excited about either one of these teams.
30:02
Speaker 1: But Dolphins we have at four and a half, and
30:05
Speaker 1: like you said, there's more money on the Dolphins, but
30:07
Speaker 1: it's not compared to some of the other games. It's
30:09
Speaker 1: not a lot. That game's crap. Uh. This other game though,
30:14
Speaker 1: there's the last. I'd say three of the last four
30:18
Speaker 1: games are really interesting to me. It's m It's where
30:22
Speaker 1: I might want to spend some of my money this weekend.
30:24
Speaker 1: Arizona Cardinals are fourteen point dogs at home against the
30:29
Speaker 1: reeling Rams, and right now the majority of the money,
30:34
Speaker 1: very small volume is coming in on Arizona. I'm not
30:38
Speaker 1: saying the majority that bets the majority of the money.
30:41
Speaker 1: So I got some wise guy action on the Cardinals.
30:43
Speaker 1: Not surprising double two touchdown home dog makes sense, It's
30:49
Speaker 1: what the book tells you to play. Rams are reeling,
30:52
Speaker 1: though you go, I mean, you go all the way
30:55
Speaker 1: back to October when when the Rams played Green Bay
30:59
Speaker 1: and they beat Green made by two. I think that
31:02
Speaker 1: was the beginning of the fall from the dominance of
31:07
Speaker 1: I don't think they've covered, uh that they might have
31:10
Speaker 1: covered one game since then. And if you look at
31:13
Speaker 1: like the last three, losing straight up to Philly as
31:17
Speaker 1: a double digit favorite, losing to Chicago is a four
31:20
Speaker 1: and a half point favorite. Um, I think they might
31:23
Speaker 1: have gotten to cover against the Lions as like a
31:25
Speaker 1: ten point favorite, and and that, and even in that
31:27
Speaker 1: game it looked like the Lions were gonna cover. But
31:30
Speaker 1: I mean, you're talking about almost two months of not covering.
31:35
Speaker 1: So had they playing any other team and you'd say, yeah,
31:38
Speaker 1: it's an automatic take, you know, double digits at home.
31:41
Speaker 1: It's just that the Cardinals are just so bad. Yeah,
31:44
Speaker 1: the Rams are reeling, but the Cardinals, Cardinals are just
31:47
Speaker 1: really bad. But having said no, no, they just can't. Uh,
31:53
Speaker 1: we've got them ranked of the worst team in the
31:56
Speaker 1: NFL right now and um, and they're playing up to it.
32:01
Speaker 1: But having said that, I still think you have to
32:04
Speaker 1: just play the percentages and take and take the points. Uh.
32:07
Speaker 1: You know, I think with with a lot of the
32:09
Speaker 1: teams that were so dominant at the beginning of the year,
32:12
Speaker 1: you take the Rams the Chiefs, the Saints, all those
32:15
Speaker 1: teams that just look like they could score it well
32:17
Speaker 1: and they were just so dominant on offense. Something happened
32:20
Speaker 1: around midway or week nine, week ten, where where defenses
32:25
Speaker 1: pick up on certain things and figure out a game
32:27
Speaker 1: plan uh that that can stop the offense. And then
32:30
Speaker 1: if it works in one game, then the other coaches
32:33
Speaker 1: kind of pick up on that and they realize what works.
32:37
Speaker 1: Uh so they might take you know, for the Rams,
32:39
Speaker 1: they might look at the how the how the Saints
32:41
Speaker 1: beat them, and then they'll say, Okay, what did the
32:43
Speaker 1: Saints do defensively to stop them? You know, did they
32:46
Speaker 1: uh take away the passing lanes by golf by you know,
32:51
Speaker 1: not not focusing on the run and um and whatever
32:54
Speaker 1: they do. You look at each one of those two
32:57
Speaker 1: three teams, the Rams, the Chiefs in the Saint and
33:00
Speaker 1: offensively in the last five weeks, they were nowhere near
33:03
Speaker 1: what they were at the beginning of the season. Listen,
33:07
Speaker 1: the defenses in the NFL, they make adjustments. Um. But
33:10
Speaker 1: I also think what that does for betters huge opportunities.
33:15
Speaker 1: You've seen it with this, You've seen it with the
33:18
Speaker 1: Saints the past few weeks too. Right, Like I have
33:21
Speaker 1: made bank betting against the Saints, bank betting against the Rams.
33:26
Speaker 1: Like it's been glorious to try to see the market
33:30
Speaker 1: try to keep up with what was happening with the
33:33
Speaker 1: Rams and the Saints knowing that they've been found out. Yes,
33:38
Speaker 1: the Saints, I think the last three games, I think
33:41
Speaker 1: they scored a total of nine points in just in
33:44
Speaker 1: the first halfs they're they're they're struggling just out of
33:47
Speaker 1: the gate. They're making adjustments in the second half, and
33:50
Speaker 1: they're getting the winds. But I mean going back to
33:54
Speaker 1: the Dallas game where they scored zero points in the
33:56
Speaker 1: first half, Tampa Bay they only scored three points in
33:59
Speaker 1: the first half, and and Monday night against Carolina they
34:03
Speaker 1: only scored six points. So obviously there there's some defenses
34:06
Speaker 1: that figured something out and then uh, they're making the
34:10
Speaker 1: Saints are making adjustments to come back in the second half.
34:13
Speaker 1: That's said the Pittsburgh Steelers at the Saints six point underdogs.
34:20
Speaker 1: Money coming in on the Steelers. I am going to
34:23
Speaker 1: bet the Saints as soon as this number continues to
34:27
Speaker 1: go down. And I'm with you on that one. I
34:31
Speaker 1: We've already moved it down. We're down to five and
34:33
Speaker 1: a half on the game. Uh, we saw some money
34:36
Speaker 1: coming in after Monday night when I guess, uh, just
34:40
Speaker 1: not a not a whole lot of confidence in that
34:42
Speaker 1: Saints team. They got the win against Carolina, but you know,
34:45
Speaker 1: the public remembers what they saw last and UM didn't
34:49
Speaker 1: give him a whole lot of confidence, uh to to
34:51
Speaker 1: lay six points on New Orleans. So they they're taking Pittsburgh.
34:54
Speaker 1: So the public's gonna take Pittsburgh in this one. Um,
34:58
Speaker 1: But I agree with you, it gets down a little too.
35:00
Speaker 1: Oh and I think the Saints at home is going
35:02
Speaker 1: to be a little a little bit different story. Um,
35:06
Speaker 1: how long do you think this game is gonna go? Uh?
35:11
Speaker 1: I think I mean, barring an injury, probably down to five.
35:14
Speaker 1: And you know, and I have to something from last week.
35:18
Speaker 1: I remember saying that the Rams will never go above ten. Uh.
35:22
Speaker 1: But against the Eagles last week, and and then the
35:26
Speaker 1: game went up to fourteen, but that was because Carson
35:28
Speaker 1: Wentz was out. So so barring an injury, I don't
35:33
Speaker 1: I think it'll go down to about five, all right,
35:38
Speaker 1: So I'll be taking the Saints eventually in this maybe
35:40
Speaker 1: four and a half. You might lay four and a
35:42
Speaker 1: half four and a half. I'll take that. This next
35:44
Speaker 1: game Kansas City at Seattle, Kansas City two and a
35:48
Speaker 1: halfway your favorite. Here's what's interesting to me right now.
35:53
Speaker 1: Seattle plus one fift boom. Look at book it done?
35:59
Speaker 1: Yeah you like that too, right? I love it? Yeah.
36:03
Speaker 1: I mean Seattle really a team that's kind of flown
36:07
Speaker 1: under the radar with regards to handicapping. I mean some
36:10
Speaker 1: of the games that they lost, uh they played played
36:13
Speaker 1: the Rams twice and they lost by a total of
36:16
Speaker 1: about seven points thirty three thirty one and one of them.
36:19
Speaker 1: Uh they so they covered I want to say seven
36:23
Speaker 1: out of the last ten or eleven games they covered.
36:25
Speaker 1: These games were on the other side of the ball there.
36:29
Speaker 1: Kansas City their last five games, they haven't covered once.
36:33
Speaker 1: So you've got two teams like again, and this goes
36:37
Speaker 1: back to how dominant Kansas City was at the beginning
36:39
Speaker 1: of the year and the week by week adjustment with
36:41
Speaker 1: these lines going up and up and up, and then
36:43
Speaker 1: the correction comes in and you look at their last
36:45
Speaker 1: five games and they haven't covered once. So this is
36:48
Speaker 1: a perfect spot for Seattle. But I don't even see
36:52
Speaker 1: it as a spot where um I expect Seattle to cover,
36:58
Speaker 1: like I expect them to win. Yeah, I mean yeah
37:02
Speaker 1: two and a half. I mean it's the point spread
37:05
Speaker 1: really isn't in play here. Uh, you know we've been
37:07
Speaker 1: talking about right, but but yeah, absolutely go for the win.
37:11
Speaker 1: I think I'm going to go for the win the
37:13
Speaker 1: money line, I mean, why not. Yeah, that's it feels
37:17
Speaker 1: like that's the right side to me. I think it's
37:20
Speaker 1: a let down spot and I I think the Chargers
37:23
Speaker 1: are gonna win the a f C West move Wow yea, Well,
37:28
Speaker 1: it's all comes down to the game that this Ravens games. No, No,
37:34
Speaker 1: you're totally right, right. I got lost here for a
37:37
Speaker 1: second because if I were allegedly to bet right now,
37:40
Speaker 1: I would look for the Saints and the Steelers, But
37:43
Speaker 1: for some reason I can't find that game, which is weird. Um,
37:50
Speaker 1: they might have it off the board. I mean, depending
37:53
Speaker 1: on where you're why is it not on the board? Yeah,
37:57
Speaker 1: because of James Conner is still a question mark. So
38:00
Speaker 1: a lot of a lot of places are staying on
38:02
Speaker 1: the safe side, and until they get more information on him,
38:06
Speaker 1: he's still listened as questionable. All right, Well, one of
38:09
Speaker 1: us allegedly just made a bet on the Seattle Seahawks
38:14
Speaker 1: to win on the money line. Yeah, your attention please,
38:19
Speaker 1: Chad is making a bet allegedly. Ill did it. I
38:26
Speaker 1: did it. It's like, you know, like if you got
38:29
Speaker 1: a kid and he goes poop in his pants and
38:31
Speaker 1: look up and be like, I did it. I might
38:36
Speaker 1: have just pooped in my pants. That's what this show's
38:40
Speaker 1: regrets to talk about sex and pooping and pants. By
38:44
Speaker 1: the way, some of the most popular podcasts in the
38:47
Speaker 1: world are about sex and poop. We might be more
38:51
Speaker 1: popular if we talked about sex and poop instead of betting.
38:58
Speaker 1: Oh man, if all we did was write ballads for
39:01
Speaker 1: jan talk about the post ballot sex and then making
39:05
Speaker 1: nice poops, this would be like comported podcast of all time.
39:10
Speaker 1: This would be the podcast for everybody. Would it be
39:15
Speaker 1: some nice, niche little podcast. We'd be mass market Yeah, step,
39:24
Speaker 1: you gotta talk about like the Broncos and the Raiders,
39:26
Speaker 1: which no one gives a funk about. No that This
39:29
Speaker 1: was the other game I was talking about when I
39:31
Speaker 1: was saying that the Jaguars Dolphins was the least bet game.
39:34
Speaker 1: Now this one is by far. This is like a
39:37
Speaker 1: ship a ship sandwich on Monday night, Christmas Eve. How
39:41
Speaker 1: many people on Christmas Eve are going to be glued
39:43
Speaker 1: to the TV watching this one? Yeah, it's ridiculous. Um,
39:50
Speaker 1: So Scoots, we have a lot to talk about right now. Um.
39:55
Speaker 1: First off, we gotta do some scoocher let. All right, Yeah,
40:07
Speaker 1: I'm going first, go ahead, mm hmm. I'll take the Seahawks.
40:14
Speaker 1: Oh man, yeah, all right, Well that was one of
40:18
Speaker 1: them I liked. I can't go with the Bears because
40:23
Speaker 1: the lines already I've already adjusted it back up. But
40:27
Speaker 1: I do think those sharp guys are right on the Eagles.
40:30
Speaker 1: And I know you like the Texans, but I think
40:32
Speaker 1: the Eagles, with that only laying one and a half
40:36
Speaker 1: the way they're playing, that that's the one i'd go with. Uh,
40:42
Speaker 1: I can accept that. I appreciate you for saying that. Um,
40:48
Speaker 1: I like the Saints. I'm gonna take him on the spread,
40:49
Speaker 1: not the money line, just because why not get the
40:51
Speaker 1: points for some scooch roulette. I'll bet them on the
40:53
Speaker 1: money line for real money, But in scooch your lett,
40:55
Speaker 1: I want the cushion. Uh, listen, we all go. Also
40:57
Speaker 1: got to tell people that next week we're gonna be off.
41:01
Speaker 1: So do not look for a podcast, because otherwise, like
41:04
Speaker 1: we'd be recording on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day and
41:07
Speaker 1: that's no good for you. And uh, nobody's going to
41:10
Speaker 1: listen to a podcast. And I don't want to get
41:11
Speaker 1: in the way of you know, you and Jen celebrating
41:14
Speaker 1: your love for each other. Um during the holiday season
41:18
Speaker 1: sounds good. Besides it so that last week is so
41:21
Speaker 1: crazy anyway, half the games will be off the board.
41:23
Speaker 1: Half the games will be off the board. You can't
41:25
Speaker 1: even judge it, Uh, Bob Scucci. We've made it through. Um,
41:29
Speaker 1: another fantastic year of podcasting. We have launched a new
41:34
Speaker 1: podcast that was wildly popular with our new partners at
41:37
Speaker 1: Cadence thirteen. Um. If nothing else in my life, I
41:43
Speaker 1: can count on you. Well that's very nice. I don't know.
41:48
Speaker 1: I don't know how to react because waiting for something
41:50
Speaker 1: sarcastic and it didn't count is. I can count on
41:53
Speaker 1: a lot of things in my life, but you are
41:54
Speaker 1: one of those things. Little thanks, Chad. Maybe over the
41:58
Speaker 1: break you can write as long about me. Well you
42:01
Speaker 1: know what we already are. Well, that's right, Yeah, that's right.
42:05
Speaker 1: We're working on at four for the live podcast. Oh,
42:10
Speaker 1: my god, it's gonna be so good. Um. Can I
42:14
Speaker 1: give details about the live podcast right now? Can I
42:16
Speaker 1: officially give those? Should we do that as a mid role?
42:19
Speaker 1: All right, all right, Scooch. I want you to have
42:22
Speaker 1: a great Christmas and a great New Year's. This has
42:25
Speaker 1: been the Favorites from the Action Network. We will be
42:30
Speaker 1: back beginning the week of January second. You can download
42:36
Speaker 1: the Favorites on Apple podcast, from radio dot com, slash,
42:41
Speaker 1: the Action Network, anywhere you get your podcast. We will
42:45
Speaker 1: be back on Friday with black Jack Fletcher to make
42:48
Speaker 1: five picks to win one point four million dollars. Not
42:51
Speaker 1: just until next time, until next year with Scooch