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Democrat Strategist Reveals What Republicans Could Do to Pull Off Election Upset w/ Julian Epstein · The Alex Marlow Show

0:04
Speaker 1: I'm very happy to have back on the show Julian Epstein.
0:07
Speaker 1: He's a former chief counsel for.
0:08
Speaker 2: The House Judiciary Democrats and a former staff director of
0:11
Speaker 2: the House Oversight Committee, also a Democrat strategist, perhaps former.
0:16
Speaker 2: We're on the verge of maybe former Democrat strategist. And Julian,
0:19
Speaker 2: I want to get into your sense of the race here,
0:22
Speaker 2: but you've been writing a lot in the New York Post,
0:23
Speaker 2: among other places. And I'm looking at a column that
0:27
Speaker 2: you have up just earlier this week, how The Democrats
0:30
Speaker 2: have the knives out for John Fetterman, but they risk
0:32
Speaker 2: stabbing themselves at the headline they put on it.
0:35
Speaker 1: What's interesting that you identify.
0:37
Speaker 2: In the piece is that even if Democrats were to
0:42
Speaker 2: narrowly eke out a victory or even a tie in
0:45
Speaker 2: the Senate race, if Fetterman switches parties, that could complicate
0:48
Speaker 2: things for them. And they seem like they're doing everything
0:49
Speaker 2: they can to alienate not just him, but what he represents,
0:53
Speaker 2: which is really all moderate Americans. But let's talk about
0:55
Speaker 2: the implications for the election in that regard, and then
0:58
Speaker 2: also this phenomenon that the big tent that the Democrats
1:02
Speaker 2: promised is just a total farce.
1:06
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, you just summed up the piece perfectly.
1:09
Speaker 3: You know, I think Fetterman is a metaphor for what's
1:12
Speaker 3: going on inside the Democratic Party. I think, first of all,
1:17
Speaker 3: if the Democrats pick up four seats, which I think
1:19
Speaker 3: is the most optimistic scenario, then they have a net
1:23
Speaker 3: gain of 51 seats in the Senate. And A couple
1:28
Speaker 3: of weeks ago, when Fetterman was talking to Major Garrett,
1:31
Speaker 3: he said, you know, I'm historically a Democrat. I've got
1:34
Speaker 3: no reason to switch. And then he dropped the bombshell.
1:37
Speaker 3: He said, but if I'm the 51st senator, meaning if
1:41
Speaker 3: I'm the deciding vote in the Senate, then we'll see.
1:44
Speaker 3: Talk to me about it after the election. Right. Which
1:46
Speaker 3: seemed to me to be a big tease and a
1:49
Speaker 3: suggestion that he would move. It makes all the sense
1:53
Speaker 3: in the world for him to switch parties. He's got
1:56
Speaker 3: a nearly 80% approval rating amongst Republicans. His approval with
1:59
Speaker 3: independents is high. His statewide rating is 48. Statewide rating
2:04
Speaker 3: is about 48%. It's very close to the 50 plus
2:08
Speaker 3: one that he would need for reelection. So I think
2:11
Speaker 3: the sort of the handwriting is on the wall, whether
2:13
Speaker 3: it's right after the election or sometime in the future.
2:15
Speaker 3: I think the handwriting is on the wall for him
2:17
Speaker 3: to switch either an independent and caucus with Republicans or
2:20
Speaker 3: switch to the Republican Party. I think the former of
2:23
Speaker 3: those two is more likely. And I think his situation
2:28
Speaker 3: is a metaphor for a lot of people like myself
2:31
Speaker 3: and others who silently agree with me but will never
2:33
Speaker 3: say so because they don't want to be voted off
2:35
Speaker 3: the island.
2:35
Speaker 1: Right.
2:36
Speaker 3: Or they don't want to lose their place on the
2:37
Speaker 3: money barge that is Washington, D.C. They depend as Democratic
2:42
Speaker 3: consultants for sort of pitching the Democratic line to clients
2:45
Speaker 3: and that kind of thing. But I think it's a
2:48
Speaker 3: metaphor for what's happening at large. And the big tent
2:51
Speaker 3: is not a big tent. It's a one-way open door
2:54
Speaker 3: for extremism. So if you cheer for Nazi terrorists in
3:00
Speaker 3: the Middle East, or if you want to dismantle the
3:04
Speaker 3: Constitution and things like prisons and borders and police, then
3:10
Speaker 3: the Democratic Party will lay down prostrate for you and
3:14
Speaker 3: will sort of welcome you in. But if you question
3:18
Speaker 3: the transgender ideology for minors, which I think is very
3:23
Speaker 3: harmful to minors, if you question race essentialism, if you
3:30
Speaker 3: don't go for climate catastrophism, then you're a very bad
3:33
Speaker 3: person and you're not welcome in the tent. And you
3:37
Speaker 3: saw this with John Fetterman when he came out and
3:39
Speaker 3: told Bill Maher that he was proud not to be
3:43
Speaker 3: a progressive and how liberating it was to be emancipated
3:46
Speaker 3: from the orthodoxy, the rigidity, the intolerance of the progressive left.
3:52
Speaker 3: And then later when he said he stood with Israel,
3:56
Speaker 3: the knives came out for him. His staff started smearing
3:58
Speaker 3: him in a Wall Street Journal story. Members of Congress
4:02
Speaker 3: like Brendan Boyle started smearing him as well. And the
4:08
Speaker 3: knives came out for him. And it's clear if he
4:10
Speaker 3: runs in the primary that those same knives would try
4:14
Speaker 3: to destroy him. So it's significant for two reasons, Alex.
4:20
Speaker 3: The first reason is because In the most optimistic scenario, again,
4:24
Speaker 3: they pick up four seats and then Fetterman could say, uh-uh,
4:28
Speaker 3: you guys don't have the Senate and I'm caucusing with
4:30
Speaker 3: the Republicans for the leadership positions and or on key
4:34
Speaker 3: issues like Israel. It's significant for that reason, but it's
4:40
Speaker 3: also significant because he switches. There are a lot of
4:44
Speaker 3: people that quietly agree with him, but they're scared to
4:47
Speaker 3: say so because of the intolerant illiberal culture that is
4:51
Speaker 3: the progressive left today, but who I think are going
4:56
Speaker 3: to be increasingly tempted to say, this is not a
4:59
Speaker 3: Democratic Party that I agree with and that I want
5:02
Speaker 3: to be part of. And I'm sort of also in
5:04
Speaker 3: that camp. You know, this Democratic Party, if I can
5:07
Speaker 3: continue just for a second, Alex, this Democratic Party basically
5:13
Speaker 3: is about, ideologically, it is about grievance. Yeah. And grievance
5:18
Speaker 3: manifests itself in a couple of different ways. It manifests
5:22
Speaker 3: itself in terms of growing a welfare state that is failing.
5:25
Speaker 3: And if you need any evidence of a welfare state
5:27
Speaker 3: that is failing, look at France and look at Britain. Yeah.
5:29
Speaker 3: Who can't afford the welfare state. But what happens with
5:32
Speaker 3: the left in Europe is that they see failure after
5:36
Speaker 3: failure after failure with the welfare state. It doesn't improve outcomes.
5:39
Speaker 3: And they've got no option but to double down on
5:42
Speaker 3: it and say, we're going to spend more on it
5:43
Speaker 3: in order to buy votes. And so it is a
5:46
Speaker 3: race to the bottom in Europe, and you see the
5:50
Speaker 3: center has imploded in Europe, the political center has imploded,
5:54
Speaker 3: and their economies are imploding. France can't afford to pay
5:56
Speaker 3: for anything. That's part of what's happening with the riots.
5:59
Speaker 3: England is really close behind it. The fundamentals of their economies,
6:03
Speaker 3: all because of the welfare state, are failing. Okay, we're
6:06
Speaker 3: going in that direction here, right? So top Democrats, like
6:11
Speaker 3: the senator from Maryland, are now suggesting that the most
6:21
Speaker 3: successful amongst us, the most productive amongst us, should be
6:24
Speaker 3: paying 70% of their income to the government. They're talking
6:30
Speaker 3: about a marginal tax rate of 50%, 49%. When you
6:35
Speaker 3: add in state and local taxes, you're getting ready, you're
6:37
Speaker 3: getting close to 70%. What that means is if you
6:42
Speaker 3: work six days a week, right, the way most successful
6:46
Speaker 3: people do, and the way most accomplished people do. That
6:49
Speaker 3: means you will be paying the government with four of
6:54
Speaker 3: those days. That means only two of the six days
6:57
Speaker 3: that you work actually goes to income for you, actual
7:01
Speaker 3: income for you. That's how big the welfare state is getting.
7:04
Speaker 3: Over 50% of Americans now get some type of government benefit.
7:08
Speaker 3: Over 30% are on some type of means-tested welfare program.
7:12
Speaker 3: So we're not that far behind Europe in terms of
7:15
Speaker 3: how much The government is taking out of our pockets
7:18
Speaker 3: and putting it into a welfare state that does not
7:21
Speaker 3: increase or produce results. It may buy votes in the
7:26
Speaker 3: short term, but ultimately it's making us a very, very
7:29
Speaker 3: less productive company. I mean, look at Europe. Europe is
7:33
Speaker 3: 500 million people, but they've got a GDP that is
7:39
Speaker 3: smaller than the U.S., which is two-thirds of its size. So,
7:44
Speaker 3: I mean, all the evidence of the welfare state being
7:46
Speaker 3: a failure and big government driving us in the wrong
7:49
Speaker 3: direction is there. But the Democrats offer nothing else other
7:54
Speaker 3: than expanding that big, I think, mostly failed welfare state.
7:59
Speaker 3: A lot of us, going back to the point, are
8:00
Speaker 3: looking at that and saying, is that what we're about?
8:03
Speaker 3: And I'm saying, like, no. I came up in the
8:06
Speaker 3: Clinton years, and it was all about building a bridge
8:09
Speaker 3: to the future. It was all about personal agency. It
8:12
Speaker 3: was all about you know, very targeted, limited help to
8:16
Speaker 3: people that really needed it in order to give them
8:19
Speaker 3: a footing so they could get off the government dole
8:23
Speaker 3: and find upward mobility through their own agency. That's what
8:27
Speaker 3: Democrats used to be about. So a lot of us
8:30
Speaker 3: are sitting here saying, I'm not for this crap. So
8:35
Speaker 3: that's the first part of the sort of the, that's
8:38
Speaker 3: the first part of the, um, um, grievance ideology. The
8:44
Speaker 3: second part, of course, is the identity politics. You know,
8:47
Speaker 3: we were all for the civil rights laws that created
8:49
Speaker 3: a colorblind society, but progressives now, because it hasn't created
8:53
Speaker 3: statistical parity with every minority group on every measure of society,
8:58
Speaker 3: every measure of economic and sort of social status, they
9:04
Speaker 3: need to go into this sort of race-based, neo-Marxist approach
9:09
Speaker 3: on race, which, again, most Black, Hispanic, minority groups do
9:14
Speaker 3: not support when you pull the general electorate, but the
9:17
Speaker 3: elites all do because it's what keeps them in business.
9:20
Speaker 3: So that's the second thing that we don't like. And
9:22
Speaker 3: the third thing that a lot of us don't like
9:24
Speaker 3: is this whole cheering, fetishizing the Nazis of the Middle East,
9:31
Speaker 3: the terrorists of the Middle East. You know, the Hamas agenda,
9:36
Speaker 3: the Hezbollah agenda, the Iranian agenda, you can trace Everything
9:40
Speaker 3: they say, from river to the sea, globalize the Intifada,
9:45
Speaker 3: all of the rhetoric, all of the ideology, you can
9:48
Speaker 3: trace it directly to 1939 Germany, Nazi Germany.
9:51
Speaker 1: Yeah.
9:51
Speaker 3: From river to sea came out of, you know, Joseph Goebbels' deputy,
9:57
Speaker 3: who was recruited by the first Mufta of Germany. to Egypt, Husseini.
10:02
Speaker 3: And he came up with these terms, and they were
10:04
Speaker 3: later refined and amplified by the Soviets. So this is
10:10
Speaker 3: a Nazi program that was amplified by the Soviets who
10:13
Speaker 3: were trying to colonize the Mideast in the 60s and
10:16
Speaker 3: 70s after, you know, during Stalin. and then after Stalin
10:20
Speaker 3: with Khrushchev. And so these are evil ideologies. And because
10:28
Speaker 3: I think the foreign-bought farms and places like Qatar have
10:33
Speaker 3: captured a lot of our universities and spread this poison,
10:36
Speaker 3: a lot of students, including in places like Princeton, who
10:40
Speaker 3: are completely ignorant about this history, start repeating these things,
10:45
Speaker 3: parroting these ideas as if they're supporting some emancipation movement.
10:49
Speaker 3: which in fact, they're aligning themselves with a Nazi movement.
10:53
Speaker 3: So you take these three things together, which is the
10:55
Speaker 3: modern day Democratic Party, and a lot of us are saying,
10:58
Speaker 3: holy crap, I didn't sign up for this. I signed
11:02
Speaker 3: up for a party that wanted to work with Republicans.
11:05
Speaker 3: I signed up with a party that wanted to build
11:07
Speaker 3: for the future. I signed up for a party that
11:09
Speaker 3: wanted to move people from welfare to work. I signed
11:12
Speaker 3: up for a colorblind, not a race-based society. I signed
11:15
Speaker 3: up for tough immigration laws. I didn't sign up for
11:18
Speaker 3: any of this crap. And that's the problem of the
11:22
Speaker 3: modern Democratic Party. That's the problem Fetterman has. That's the
11:25
Speaker 3: problem I have. And so I think, you know, I
11:28
Speaker 3: just saw an interesting statistic before I came on with you,
11:33
Speaker 3: which is the New York governor's race. You're seeing there
11:38
Speaker 3: is evidence now that Jews in New York are abandoning
11:42
Speaker 3: the Democratic Party in droves, the way sort of the
11:44
Speaker 3: working class abandoned the Democrats in 2024. So I think
11:51
Speaker 3: there are a lot of trend lines that are occurring
11:52
Speaker 3: here that the mainstream media is missing. I think this
11:57
Speaker 3: kind of extremism, the welfare state identity, the sort of
12:00
Speaker 3: the cheering for Nazis in the Middle East, I think
12:03
Speaker 3: none of that stuff is ever going to work out
12:04
Speaker 3: good for the Democratic Party. But they think it is.
12:07
Speaker 3: They think it's their mandate because people are disappointed with Trump.
12:11
Speaker 3: And so they interpret the disappointment with Trump that you're
12:14
Speaker 3: seeing in the polls as some mandate for lunacy. And
12:20
Speaker 3: that's wrong.
12:22
Speaker 2: So there's a lot of places I can take that
12:24
Speaker 2: from there. But one thing that I want to get
12:26
Speaker 2: your thoughts on, because the states are very, it's a
12:29
Speaker 2: very odd election in the sense that the Republicans have
12:33
Speaker 2: not done the best.
12:34
Speaker 1: They can do with what they they had.
12:37
Speaker 2: And some of it's just circumstantial, which is the way
12:39
Speaker 2: the Iran war was prosecuted, which I think is largely
12:44
Speaker 2: pretty well intended and might historically age very well. But
12:48
Speaker 2: for the time being, our temporary inflation is eight months
12:52
Speaker 2: in on this. I came in my live show today
12:54
Speaker 2: reporting the CPI numbers, which are they're horrific. And I
12:58
Speaker 2: say this as a, you know, a partisan conservative Republican
13:01
Speaker 2: like who want Republicans to win.
13:02
Speaker 1: It's like they're bad. They're just bad. And is there
13:05
Speaker 1: a good excuse? There is.
13:06
Speaker 2: So is there is a letdown that's going on. So Republicans,
13:10
Speaker 2: I've been saying, Julian, would lose. in any normal election,
13:13
Speaker 2: but they have a chance, I think, here still, because
13:16
Speaker 2: of the nature of who the Democrats are running. And
13:18
Speaker 2: to your point that there's no moderates, the question is,
13:22
Speaker 2: did the word get out? Because if you think about
13:25
Speaker 2: Sherrod Brown, who's saying that if he wins in the Senate,
13:28
Speaker 2: he's saying that he will not approve a single judicial
13:32
Speaker 2: appointment from Donald Trump, even if they're totally qualified, even
13:34
Speaker 2: if they've got a great sterling record and are leaders
13:39
Speaker 2: in their field.
13:40
Speaker 1: It doesn't make a difference.
13:41
Speaker 2: That's very new that they have people who are representing
13:44
Speaker 2: middle America who are just saying flat out, I will
13:47
Speaker 2: not cross party lines on anything. And I don't know
13:51
Speaker 2: if Republicans have made that point enough, at least effectively enough.
13:55
Speaker 2: And what we're going to see in a couple of weeks,
13:56
Speaker 2: we're already seeing now with early returns, But that premise,
14:00
Speaker 2: I want you to evaluate that premise that Republicans not
14:02
Speaker 2: doing running a great campaign, but perhaps they still got
14:05
Speaker 2: a shot because of what you've been identifying for the
14:08
Speaker 2: year you've been coming on the show, which is that
14:10
Speaker 2: they're just getting too radical on the Democrat side.
14:13
Speaker 3: I mean, there's a lot to unpack there. First of all,
14:17
Speaker 3: I think Republicans are not doing nearly as well as
14:21
Speaker 3: they ought to be doing because I think the communications
14:24
Speaker 3: is terrible. I think the ideology is terrible on the left.
14:27
Speaker 3: I think the communication is terrible on the right. Um,
14:30
Speaker 3: I think Trump is very good at spotting common sense
14:36
Speaker 3: grievance about left excesses. And I think that's a lot
14:39
Speaker 3: of what got him in, in 2024. I don't think
14:43
Speaker 3: he is that effective in terms of articulating an act
14:47
Speaker 3: and a set of economic ideas that will appeal to
14:51
Speaker 3: enough of the swing voters. So, you know, every campaign
14:53
Speaker 3: has three steps, right? Alex, you say, yeah. Um, what
14:57
Speaker 3: have I done for you? What am I going to
15:00
Speaker 3: do for you? And the other guy is bad, right?
15:03
Speaker 3: So I think Trump has been okay on saying, and
15:06
Speaker 3: the Republicans, what I've done for you. I don't think
15:10
Speaker 3: they're saying anything about the most important part, which is
15:12
Speaker 3: what I'm going to do for you. And I think
15:14
Speaker 3: they're starting to sort of get at the other side
15:16
Speaker 3: is bad, but a lot of it is just ad hominem.
15:19
Speaker 3: It's not really spelling out how, for example, progressive socialist
15:23
Speaker 3: ideas are are going to make the housing problem much,
15:27
Speaker 3: much worse because it's going to restrict supply. How Obamacare,
15:31
Speaker 3: the regulations, how it has stopped competition and basically given
15:35
Speaker 3: a blank check to insurance companies, which is why insurance
15:39
Speaker 3: premiums have doubled. Those explanations are sort of not out there.
15:43
Speaker 3: And most importantly, what am I going to do for you?
15:46
Speaker 3: And I think the Republicans have a great muse right now,
15:50
Speaker 3: have a great foil. which is the Democratic Socialists, and contrasting,
15:56
Speaker 3: this is what I'm going to do for you, this
15:58
Speaker 3: is what they're going to do for you. And I
16:00
Speaker 3: don't hear Republicans doing that. And a lot of the
16:02
Speaker 3: reason is, I think, you've developed a culture on the
16:05
Speaker 3: Republican side where people are scared to get out in
16:07
Speaker 3: front of the president, for the most part. There are
16:09
Speaker 3: some exceptions. And I think that's a very negative thing.
16:12
Speaker 3: I think you want rhetorical entrepreneurialism on the right. And
16:20
Speaker 3: I don't hear a lot of Republicans sort of getting
16:22
Speaker 3: out there and making the case as effectively as they
16:25
Speaker 3: ought to be. I think there's a very effective story
16:29
Speaker 3: to tell on the economy. You said you were dismayed
16:32
Speaker 3: by the inflation numbers. Okay, so we've had 25% inflation
16:36
Speaker 3: since 2021. 21% of it has come on the watch
16:37
Speaker 3: of Democrats. Maybe 26% inflation. And 21% of that has
16:40
Speaker 3: come on the watch of Democrats. Every economic indicator, whether
16:49
Speaker 3: you want to talk about things like housing prices, inflation,
16:55
Speaker 3: even gas and grocery inflation, is much better today than
17:01
Speaker 3: it was. It's not good enough for voters. They're not
17:03
Speaker 3: doing this comparative analysis. But there is a story to
17:07
Speaker 3: tell about what could shape the economy. We're at nearly 3% growth.
17:12
Speaker 3: I think it's 2.9% in the last quarter, right? GDP growth.
17:18
Speaker 3: We're pretty good levels of growth. There's some good stories
17:21
Speaker 3: to tell, but when voters are dismayed, you don't go
17:25
Speaker 3: around saying, just sort of saying just that you have
17:28
Speaker 3: to talk about what you're going to do. And again,
17:30
Speaker 3: I think Republicans are scared to get out in front
17:33
Speaker 3: of the president on policy. And I think that's a
17:35
Speaker 3: large part of what the problem is now to your
17:38
Speaker 3: point about the election. Um, there's, they're, Again, the mainstream media,
17:43
Speaker 3: I think, is missing the big story here, which is
17:47
Speaker 3: they're focusing on the generics, right? The generics are anywhere
17:50
Speaker 3: from 8 to 11 points in favor of the Democrats.
17:52
Speaker 3: Everyone's talking about a blue wave. But when you look
17:55
Speaker 3: at the races in places like Texas, Michigan, Minnesota, Maine,
18:00
Speaker 3: you're looking at one-point races. Why is there this huge
18:04
Speaker 3: difference between the generics and these critical swing races? Well, because...
18:12
Speaker 3: it is in those races where you see the socialist,
18:17
Speaker 3: radical Islamist, neo-Marxist agenda of the progressive left really coming
18:23
Speaker 3: into sharp focus. So I think there is a huge
18:27
Speaker 3: difference in the races that matter in terms of how
18:30
Speaker 3: close those races are in the generic polls. And I
18:36
Speaker 3: don't see sort of the discourse really capturing that. I
18:39
Speaker 3: think this thing is close. I think I think Rogers
18:43
Speaker 3: is going to win in Michigan. I think the Republicans
18:46
Speaker 3: are going to win in Maine. I think Minnesota is
18:49
Speaker 3: a fascinating case. The poll I saw this morning was
18:51
Speaker 3: one point. I think Tallarico loses in Texas. You know,
18:58
Speaker 3: I think you might see a pickup of one or
18:59
Speaker 3: two Republicans. I think Ohio is sort of a place
19:02
Speaker 3: where the Democrats could really gain because Sherrod Brown has
19:06
Speaker 3: figured out how to talk working class. to voters um
19:10
Speaker 3: yeah otherwise still think and he's he's better at it
19:12
Speaker 3: than most democrats are um alaska and.
19:16
Speaker 2: And his his phony populism comes through and him saying
19:21
Speaker 2: i won't work with republicans on anything doesn't come through
19:24
Speaker 2: like that's not gonna it doesn't get the same level
19:26
Speaker 2: of attention i want to go race by race with
19:27
Speaker 2: you and track which races julian that you think are
19:30
Speaker 2: the most compelling or at least we probably won't get
19:33
Speaker 2: to all of them but i do want to get
19:34
Speaker 2: the ones that you're looking at. But I've also, do
19:37
Speaker 2: you think the Democrats are hurt? I got two specific
19:41
Speaker 2: ones before we go race by race. First of all,
19:43
Speaker 2: I want to ask about Mamdani. So Mamdani's now getting
19:45
Speaker 2: protested from the far left because he said he's going
19:47
Speaker 2: to arrest Netanyahu, didn't do it.
19:49
Speaker 1: And then so the pro-Hamas.
19:51
Speaker 2: Crowd is mad at him. I mean, it's just like
19:53
Speaker 2: that's got to be good for him, right? Like, I
19:54
Speaker 2: feel like it's almost like he should have been paying
19:56
Speaker 2: those protesters to heckle him because now all of a
19:59
Speaker 2: sudden he seems slightly more moderate. And he's very, he's
20:04
Speaker 2: been able to, I think, maintain that persona. even though
20:08
Speaker 2: we know in his heart he's a radical, but he
20:10
Speaker 2: still is able to play a, I'm just a progressive
20:12
Speaker 2: guy on TV.
20:14
Speaker 3: Well, a progressive socialist gets mugged by reality. What's the reality?
20:20
Speaker 3: October 7th, which was one of the most brutal, primitive,
20:24
Speaker 3: sadistic massacres of women and children who were murdered in
20:29
Speaker 3: front of their family members, decapitated in front of their
20:31
Speaker 3: family members. The worst unspeakable things occurred to them. and
20:38
Speaker 3: he has to say something about it. So what does
20:41
Speaker 3: he do? A few sentences about what a bad day
20:46
Speaker 3: that was for Jews, and then three paragraphs about how
20:50
Speaker 3: Israel's to blame for it. Okay, I find that repulsive.
20:54
Speaker 3: I think if you flip the script and made that
20:57
Speaker 3: about any other ethnic group other than the Jews, the
21:00
Speaker 3: left and the mainstream media, their heads would explode, and
21:03
Speaker 3: they would be screaming fascism. um, all day long. Well,
21:09
Speaker 3: the people that are criticizing Mandami now, they are Nazis
21:14
Speaker 3: in our midst. These people are not interested in human rights.
21:17
Speaker 3: They're not interested in self-determination for the Palestinians. If they
21:21
Speaker 3: were interested in self-determination for the Palestinians, they would be
21:25
Speaker 3: calling for the decapitation of Hamas, uh, which again, whose
21:29
Speaker 3: ideology traces right back to Nazi Germany. Um, These are
21:33
Speaker 3: Nazis who have an eliminationist and exterminationist ideology that flows
21:40
Speaker 3: from Hamas. And like the Jacobins in France, they give
21:43
Speaker 3: no quarter for any acknowledgement of humanity of the people
21:48
Speaker 3: that they want to exterminate. And so when Mandami gives
21:52
Speaker 3: the slightest hint that there might be some empathy to
21:55
Speaker 3: what happened to Israeli Jews on October 7th, that is
21:59
Speaker 3: a That is an unpardonable sin. And that lets you
22:03
Speaker 3: know who we're dealing with. That lets you know who
22:06
Speaker 3: the Democrats have let in the door on the left.
22:09
Speaker 3: That lets you know about the intolerance, the illiberalism, the racism,
22:15
Speaker 3: all of these things that are happening on the left
22:17
Speaker 3: right now that people like Ms. Chevalier, who is going
22:21
Speaker 3: to be a member of Congress in a couple of months,
22:25
Speaker 3: these are her supporters and the supporters of the new neo-Marxist,
22:32
Speaker 3: Islamist extremist left. That's what we're dealing with. That's who
22:37
Speaker 3: we've let in the door. And, you know, you see
22:38
Speaker 3: that happening in France with the riots where Menchelon is
22:47
Speaker 3: in France is actually encouraging these protests where you see
22:51
Speaker 3: Islamic flags everywhere saying they want to take down the West.
22:54
Speaker 3: It's happening in Belgium. It's happening in UK. And it's
22:57
Speaker 3: starting to happen here. And when you ask the left
23:01
Speaker 3: about that, you know, I was watching, you know, I
23:04
Speaker 3: think CNN the other night, you had a couple of
23:06
Speaker 3: prominent Democrats saying, if you criticize that, you're a racist. No, no,
23:11
Speaker 3: you're not a racist. No one is making a broad
23:14
Speaker 3: brush claim about Muslims. People are making a claim about
23:19
Speaker 3: what is happening with Islamic extremism and the movement's that
23:25
Speaker 3: they represent, the ideologies they represent, and the funding sources,
23:29
Speaker 3: which are often foreign funding sources. Charles Asher Small has
23:32
Speaker 3: done an enormous amount of work on this, and there's
23:34
Speaker 3: been a ton of him, but there's a professor at GW,
23:37
Speaker 3: George Washington, who's done an enormous amount. A lot of
23:40
Speaker 3: this is foreign funded. A lot of this is sort
23:42
Speaker 3: of funded from the socialist anti-American left, but it is
23:45
Speaker 3: at its core, it is a Nazi ideology. It's a
23:48
Speaker 3: racist ideology. It's an exterminationist ideology. And the left would
23:53
Speaker 3: not let that in to their quarter if it was
23:58
Speaker 3: targeted at any other minority group other than the Jews,
24:01
Speaker 3: which makes the left claim, the left moral superiority claim
24:06
Speaker 3: on race and ethnicity and equality, I think it exposes
24:10
Speaker 3: it as a sham. And that's the dynamic to your
24:16
Speaker 3: question that Mondami has found, has discovered, that there is
24:20
Speaker 3: no quarter. There is no room for saying anything that
24:26
Speaker 3: could show any sympathy towards the plight that Israel has
24:30
Speaker 3: been in, which has been attacked mercilessly from seven sides
24:34
Speaker 3: since its founding in 1948, and continues to be. Not because...
24:40
Speaker 3: It's funny. You ask people about the situation in 1967,
24:47
Speaker 3: and they can tell you nothing about it. The people
24:49
Speaker 3: on the left. In 1967, before Israel was invaded, you know,
24:54
Speaker 3: Gaza was controlled, was part of Egypt. The West Bank
24:59
Speaker 3: was part of Jordan. No one ever called for Palestinian
25:02
Speaker 3: self-determination then. They still attacked Israel. They still wanted to
25:06
Speaker 3: exterminate Israel when the Arabs had complete control of those lands.
25:10
Speaker 3: In 1964, when the PLO was founded and these territories
25:15
Speaker 3: were controlled by the Arabs, there was no mention of
25:18
Speaker 3: Palestinian autonomy, Palestinian self-determination. This ideology was an ideology that
25:24
Speaker 3: was developed by the Soviets. Again, it took its providence
25:27
Speaker 3: from the Nazis. And now it has manifested itself into
25:32
Speaker 3: a modern-day neo-Nazi movement. The real Nazi movement is on
25:35
Speaker 3: the left. And the fact that the left in the
25:40
Speaker 3: United States, in France, in UK, in places in Europe,
25:45
Speaker 3: will not confront that. It's not because they're concerned about race.
25:48
Speaker 3: It's because they are concerned about a shrinking party Congressional
25:53
Speaker 3: Democrats now have an approval rating of about 18%. A
25:57
Speaker 3: shrinking party where the working class is leaving them, that
26:02
Speaker 3: they are far to the left of the median voter
26:06
Speaker 3: on almost every single issue. And so what do they do?
26:09
Speaker 3: They've got to get in bed with extremists because that's
26:11
Speaker 3: the only place to find votes. Sure. Of course, by universities. Sure. Sure.
26:15
Speaker 2: And they're also they're also trying to ride this AI doomerism,
26:20
Speaker 2: which I think is could be politically pretty savvy. They've
26:22
Speaker 2: seen the polling on that. Republicans are also horrific at
26:25
Speaker 2: messaging on that. The Silicon Valley overlords are very great
26:29
Speaker 2: villains to cast for them. So they're taking advantage there.
26:32
Speaker 2: There's one other one I want to get your take on, Julian,
26:35
Speaker 2: before you get into some of the specific races. I'm
26:37
Speaker 2: always a I'm a culture war guy and I'm pay
26:40
Speaker 2: attention to it very closely. And I find this very strange,
26:44
Speaker 2: incoherent messaging from the left right now to be a very,
26:51
Speaker 2: it could be telling if the Democrats are going to
26:53
Speaker 2: lose because we're seeing simultaneously that if Sidney Sweeney does
26:58
Speaker 2: an ad with her clothes off, then that's not good.
27:04
Speaker 1: We can't have that.
27:04
Speaker 2: But if Shane Gillis makes a joke that women dress
27:07
Speaker 2: like whores at the gym, that's also not good.
27:10
Speaker 1: And so the OnlyFans.
27:12
Speaker 2: Stars are empowered, but if you were to consume that content,
27:15
Speaker 2: you're a bad person. And there's a very incoherent thing
27:18
Speaker 2: that's going on with the Cornell rape hoax that went
27:22
Speaker 2: on where now they're banning all these frat parties two
27:25
Speaker 2: years later, even though the frat was disbanded right away
27:27
Speaker 2: and all the guys were expelled and the story's crumbling
27:30
Speaker 2: under scrutiny. And it just feels like there's a little desperation.
27:35
Speaker 2: There's a sense of desperation that I'm seeing all these
27:37
Speaker 2: other comedians try to cancel Shane Gillis for a, pretty
27:40
Speaker 2: benign joke in the scheme of things in the run-up
27:43
Speaker 2: to the election. And the timing of the Cornell rape
27:45
Speaker 2: story feels very political to me. I'm just wondering if
27:48
Speaker 2: there's something there, and it does make me feel like
27:50
Speaker 2: these are not things that you're talking about if you're
27:53
Speaker 2: confident coming into an election.
27:55
Speaker 3: Yeah, my body, my choice with Sidney Sweeney, right? Right, right. Yeah,
28:02
Speaker 3: I mean, you know, look, without getting into the specifics
28:07
Speaker 3: of any of those, I mean, I think that You know,
28:12
Speaker 3: in some of these investigations, the facts just ought to
28:15
Speaker 3: come out on their own without people sort of trying
28:17
Speaker 3: to prejudge. But there is a consistent theme amongst the left,
28:22
Speaker 3: which is that they do not know how to build.
28:27
Speaker 3: And if you do not know how to build, then
28:28
Speaker 3: you've got to go to grievance. So can you imagine
28:33
Speaker 3: Bernie Sanders, Zoran Mandami, AOC ever inventing anything? Can you
28:40
Speaker 3: imagine them ever creating a great innovation? No. Can you
28:45
Speaker 3: imagine them ever discovering anything? What is the story of
28:49
Speaker 3: the West? The story of the West in the Industrial
28:52
Speaker 3: Revolution is almost entirely one of innovation, of great advances
28:58
Speaker 3: in the science and industry and the arts being made
29:01
Speaker 3: by innovators. That is the thing because of the free
29:07
Speaker 3: society in which we live in that has taken the
29:10
Speaker 3: world from 95% abject poverty to a system that can
29:18
Speaker 3: emancipate anyone if they just operate a free society in
29:21
Speaker 3: an entrepreneurial economy with a democratic system and the rule
29:28
Speaker 3: of law. I mean, every place that has been tried,
29:31
Speaker 3: it has worked. Every place that has not tried, it fails. Okay,
29:34
Speaker 3: but none of the folks on the left subscribe to
29:37
Speaker 3: the idea of building, right? of innovating, because they don't
29:41
Speaker 3: know how to. It's the same with left-wing academics. They
29:44
Speaker 3: teach grievance because they don't know how to teach about economics.
29:47
Speaker 3: They don't know how to teach about innovation. They don't
29:49
Speaker 3: know how to teach about building for the future. So
29:53
Speaker 3: if they're not teaching about grievance, if the left is
29:55
Speaker 3: not peddling grievance to voters with the promise of a
29:59
Speaker 3: bigger welfare state to address the grievance or identity politics
30:02
Speaker 3: to address the grievance, they're out of business, right? The
30:05
Speaker 3: left loves centralized control because in a free society, left-wing
30:10
Speaker 3: academics and politicians have no power. So everything has got
30:14
Speaker 3: to be about grievance with the left. In some cases,
30:16
Speaker 3: it might be right. In other cases, it might be wrong.
30:19
Speaker 3: But there's nothing other than grievance with the left. And
30:24
Speaker 3: that is the decadence. That's the nihilism. that is becoming
30:31
Speaker 3: the ideological frame, again, not just in the United States,
30:34
Speaker 3: but in France, UK, throughout Europe. And it's ultimately civilizational suicide. Yeah.
30:43
Speaker 2: It's interesting because there's also culturally, there's no demand on this.
30:46
Speaker 2: There's no discussion about what are we building? And what's
30:48
Speaker 2: interesting is they had a lot of the builders, at
30:50
Speaker 2: least on the tech sector, until it feels like 20
30:54
Speaker 2: minutes ago, where they alienated all of those. And I
30:56
Speaker 2: have a lot of disdain for those people, so it's
30:58
Speaker 2: very much a mixed bag for me. But it is
31:01
Speaker 2: curious that they had the richest, most powerful, most inventive
31:04
Speaker 2: people in the country in their back pocket, and now
31:05
Speaker 2: it feels like they're doing everything they can to alienate them.
31:07
Speaker 2: That's probably a bigger topic for a different day, because
31:09
Speaker 2: I do want to get your take on some of
31:10
Speaker 2: the races.
31:11
Speaker 1: You already flagged Alaska. That was on my list.
31:13
Speaker 2: What are the races you're watching? And at this point,
31:17
Speaker 2: do you care about polls? Are you just looking at
31:18
Speaker 2: early returns right now, mail-ins? You can continue to go macro,
31:23
Speaker 2: but I do want to hear what races are most
31:25
Speaker 2: interesting to you.
31:26
Speaker 3: Well, Sure, I look at polls. Everyone looks at polls.
31:29
Speaker 3: If they tell you they don't look at polls, they're lying.
31:32
Speaker 3: Everyone's curious about the horse race. It's an addiction. So yeah,
31:35
Speaker 3: I look at polls, but I look at the difference
31:39
Speaker 3: between the generics and the polls in these states, as
31:42
Speaker 3: I was mentioning, because I think it really tees up
31:45
Speaker 3: the unrecognized weakness on the left, which is the extremism
31:49
Speaker 3: ideologies that I talked about. So I see a great
31:52
Speaker 3: narrowing and I see swing voters, the closer we get
31:55
Speaker 3: to the election, not liking what they see on the left.
31:59
Speaker 3: Swing voters in midterms always break late. Now, it's true
32:03
Speaker 3: they break against incumbents, which is a foreboding for conservatives.
32:09
Speaker 3: But I don't see what I would expect to see
32:15
Speaker 3: if the generics really were determined with here. So that's
32:19
Speaker 3: the first thing. The second thing that we haven't heard
32:22
Speaker 3: anything about, because I think most reporters don't really understand campaigns,
32:28
Speaker 3: is the get out the vote effort. And the financial
32:33
Speaker 3: advantage that the Republicans have, I think, is going to be,
32:38
Speaker 3: it could be the determining factor. I think Syed is
32:41
Speaker 3: going to lose in Michigan. As I said before, I've
32:47
Speaker 3: seen some movement. I've, you know, talked to people on
32:51
Speaker 3: the ground there. The early vote, in Michigan is very
32:55
Speaker 3: encouraging for Rodgers right now. So I see indications that
32:59
Speaker 3: Syed is going to lose. I think in Maine, I
33:05
Speaker 3: just think Collins is stronger than a lot of people recognize.
33:08
Speaker 3: I mean, one of the things you have to sort
33:10
Speaker 3: of handicap the polls for, obviously, is the undersampling of
33:16
Speaker 3: Republican voters and undersampling of who are going to be
33:18
Speaker 3: the likely voters. I think a lot of pollsters think
33:21
Speaker 3: they've corrected that. I'm not sure that they have. So
33:27
Speaker 3: I think we're seeing, you know, toss up races in
33:31
Speaker 3: these places, Texas, Minnesota, Michigan, Maine. And I think that
33:41
Speaker 3: get out the vote is sort of what is going
33:43
Speaker 3: to perhaps be the most determinative. The Alaska vote with
33:48
Speaker 3: the two Dan Sullivans, I think that was a cynical
33:50
Speaker 3: ploy on the part of Democrats who talk about democracy
33:53
Speaker 3: and suppressing the vote. I think this was a voter
33:55
Speaker 3: suppression scheme that Democrats came up with. So, again, I'm
34:03
Speaker 3: pretty critical of that cynical ploy. And I don't know
34:07
Speaker 3: how to read the Alaska election. I think there's it's
34:11
Speaker 3: a small electorate relatively. It's you know, I think they
34:16
Speaker 3: feel betrayed somewhat by by Trump. I think the Midwest
34:23
Speaker 3: elections in places like Iowa and Kansas, that's a place
34:27
Speaker 3: where I think these are regions where I think tariffs
34:31
Speaker 3: are very, very unpopular. And I think the president is
34:34
Speaker 3: sort of flat-footed with the tariff war with Canada and
34:40
Speaker 3: tariffs on some of the farming issues. I think the
34:45
Speaker 3: Republicans have been very, very flat-footed and late to the
34:47
Speaker 3: game on that. I think they hold on to those seats. Um, but, um,
34:53
Speaker 3: you know, I wouldn't be surprised to see Iowa go
34:55
Speaker 3: the wrong way, go, go, go Democrats for them.
35:00
Speaker 1: Uh, interesting.
35:00
Speaker 2: So the, the, I want to get more of your
35:03
Speaker 2: thoughts on, on Iowa, but I always keep looking at
35:05
Speaker 2: it from a communications perspective.
35:07
Speaker 1: I can't help it. I know it's easier said than
35:08
Speaker 1: done to get stuff to break out, but I.
35:10
Speaker 2: Mean, it's just the, the Democrats are trying to cheat
35:13
Speaker 2: in Alaska. It's legal cheating, but they put a fake
35:15
Speaker 2: Dan Sullivan on the ballot. And I feel like we've
35:18
Speaker 2: been pretty casual about this, that it's the sort of
35:20
Speaker 2: thing where when, when people come to me, you know,
35:23
Speaker 2: my neighborhood in LA and I can't believe the Trump
35:26
Speaker 2: family got money from this. And I'm like, yeah, but
35:29
Speaker 2: you know, the Democrats are cheating in this election. And
35:33
Speaker 2: I don't think that your average Democrat voter knows that.
35:35
Speaker 2: I think that they do tend to liberals do tend
35:38
Speaker 2: to think of themselves as morally superior. So how can
35:41
Speaker 2: they possibly justify something like that?
35:44
Speaker 3: Yeah. I mean, I've said it before. I think it's
35:46
Speaker 3: election fraud. Um, Although I don't know that you can
35:49
Speaker 3: get out election fraud from a legal point of view,
35:51
Speaker 3: but I think from a moral point of view, this
35:53
Speaker 3: is election fraud. You are trying to confuse voters to
35:57
Speaker 3: vote for the wrong person by putting somebody up with
36:00
Speaker 3: no political credentials solely for that purpose. I mean, that
36:04
Speaker 3: is voter suppression. That is election fraud, not in a
36:06
Speaker 3: legal sense, but in a moral sense. And I don't
36:11
Speaker 3: know why there isn't more moral outrage on that. Dan
36:14
Speaker 3: Sullivan is a guy I am perfectly comfortable with in
36:17
Speaker 3: the Senate. He is a terrific intellectual. He's a superb writer.
36:21
Speaker 3: He writes regularly for the Wall Street Journal. He is
36:26
Speaker 3: pro-democracy in the Middle East, pro-Israel in the Middle East.
36:32
Speaker 3: He's a superb senator and a superb intellect. But I
36:38
Speaker 3: know I sound like a Republican, but... I think he's
36:43
Speaker 3: a good guy though. It's like, I've interviewed him a
36:45
Speaker 3: couple of times. He just comes off and there's not,
36:48
Speaker 3: they don't all come off as good guys.
36:49
Speaker 1: Like they just don't. And he's one who does.
36:52
Speaker 3: He's a great guy.
36:52
Speaker 1: He's the guy they're trying to cheat.
36:54
Speaker 2: And it's just, there was a moment for, it was
36:57
Speaker 2: only five minutes of my life, Julian, where you just
37:00
Speaker 2: didn't do this stuff. Like you just didn't go there
37:02
Speaker 2: in this way, that this was beneath respectable people, but
37:06
Speaker 2: it's not anymore.
37:07
Speaker 3: And I get that.
37:08
Speaker 2: Trump does stuff that makes me sound like a hypocrite
37:11
Speaker 2: that I excuse all the time. So I get it,
37:13
Speaker 2: but it's still, it is an amazing thing that that's
37:16
Speaker 2: taking place. Okay, but let's go back to Iowa for
37:18
Speaker 2: a second.
37:18
Speaker 3: But just on that point for a second, you know,
37:21
Speaker 3: I think, Part of the reason is that I think
37:24
Speaker 3: Trump is a little bit attention deficit. I think he
37:28
Speaker 3: jumps around from issue to issue to issue to issue
37:30
Speaker 3: in no sustained way.
37:31
Speaker 1: What, Donald Trump we're talking about?
37:33
Speaker 3: Yeah, that guy. And, you know, in order to make
37:38
Speaker 3: the case on Alaska, you're going to need the Republican
37:41
Speaker 3: leadership out there making a sustained case for a couple
37:45
Speaker 3: of weeks that what the Democrats are doing is the
37:46
Speaker 3: equivalent of voter fraud. You hear that only in passing.
37:50
Speaker 3: You don't hear that in any seriously developed discourse that
37:57
Speaker 3: is coming out of the political right. I think it's
37:59
Speaker 3: a failure in the same way I think the failure
38:01
Speaker 3: to communicate what the Iran war is about, which is
38:05
Speaker 3: a Nazi movement fronting for revisionist powers, China and Russia,
38:11
Speaker 3: who want to take us down. If they do, it'll
38:14
Speaker 3: increase the cost of living on nearly everything. It will
38:20
Speaker 3: decrease our security. And it's basically looking to displace us
38:25
Speaker 3: as a global power. And Iran is just their Nazi
38:29
Speaker 3: front line in trying to do this. And the fact
38:32
Speaker 3: that the president has not gone out there and made
38:34
Speaker 3: a sustained case as to why this is so important,
38:36
Speaker 3: notwithstanding the temporary increase in gas prices, I think is
38:40
Speaker 3: a massive communications failure. And it's the same thing in Alaska.
38:46
Speaker 2: So tell me about Iowa, because that's one that has
38:48
Speaker 2: not been on my radar as much as it should be.
38:50
Speaker 2: The governor's race a little bit because Zach Lawn, who's
38:54
Speaker 2: the Republican running for governor, it seems like he's a
38:56
Speaker 2: pretty high quality guy. He also has captured the imagination
39:00
Speaker 2: of the social media crowd. He's one of the people
39:02
Speaker 2: where I get clips of him saying pretty normal stuff,
39:04
Speaker 2: and I'm told it's the greatest clip of all time. And,
39:07
Speaker 2: you know, but that's how the game is played these days, Julian,
39:11
Speaker 2: as you know, that you got to get people to
39:12
Speaker 2: say that about you.
39:13
Speaker 1: But give me your thoughts on that race, either governor, senator.
39:17
Speaker 3: What are you looking at in that state? I'm looking
39:21
Speaker 3: at the Senate race in that case. And, you know,
39:25
Speaker 3: the interesting thing. the interesting thing that is happening with
39:32
Speaker 3: the Democrat in that state, this Democratic Senate candidate, is
39:37
Speaker 3: that he doesn't want Kamala Harris to come in. For him,
39:42
Speaker 3: he is not embracing the National Democratic Party the way
39:45
Speaker 3: sort of Syed is in Michigan, the way Democrats are elsewhere.
39:51
Speaker 3: And I think he is, I think the distancing from
39:57
Speaker 3: the sort of the extremism of the left is part
39:59
Speaker 3: of the reason that Democrats are overperforming in Iowa. I
40:04
Speaker 3: think terrorists are the other reason. And again, I think
40:08
Speaker 3: the Republicans have been very, you know, slow footed and explaining,
40:14
Speaker 3: you know, sort of why Iran is important, why tariffs
40:18
Speaker 3: are intended to level the playing field and, um, and
40:21
Speaker 3: nailing the democratic Senate candidate in Iowa to, uh, the
40:26
Speaker 3: national political party. Um, so that's how I explain what's
40:30
Speaker 3: going on there. Okay.
40:32
Speaker 1: Other races that are interesting.
40:34
Speaker 3: I'm just looking at a poll this morning.
40:35
Speaker 2: Yeah.
40:36
Speaker 3: Um, um, Yeah, I mean, so what I'm seeing with
40:50
Speaker 3: a lot of swing voters there is that you're seeing
40:59
Speaker 3: a significant hemorrhaging of swing voters from 2024 from the
41:03
Speaker 3: Republicans over to the Democrats. I mean, I still think
41:05
Speaker 3: the Republicans hold in Iowa, but I think it's going
41:08
Speaker 3: to be much closer than it ought to be if
41:11
Speaker 3: you're a Republican.
41:12
Speaker 2: Okay, what other races do you think are most important
41:15
Speaker 2: to talk about a couple weeks out?
41:19
Speaker 3: I think South Carolina is fascinating to me. I was
41:26
Speaker 3: a Lindsey Graham fan. I worked with Lindsey Graham. I
41:29
Speaker 3: knew him personally. We worked through impeachment together. We were
41:32
Speaker 3: on different sides of the aisle. He was such a
41:34
Speaker 3: good guy. He was always so personable. He was always
41:37
Speaker 3: looking for where common ground might be. And there are
41:40
Speaker 3: a lot of discussions that went on with Lindsey Graham
41:42
Speaker 3: in the 98 impeachment where he was trying to see
41:46
Speaker 3: is there some way out of this? Not that he
41:49
Speaker 3: was getting soft, but at least he was open to
41:52
Speaker 3: discussion with the other side. I always liked him, but,
41:56
Speaker 3: you know, I think his sister, I think she has
42:02
Speaker 3: the same problem that Kamala Harris had, which is I
42:07
Speaker 3: just don't think she's prepared enough. to go very deep
42:10
Speaker 3: on policy. And I think voters want that. And I
42:14
Speaker 3: don't think she's going to lose, but I think it's
42:16
Speaker 3: going to be a lot closer than people want it.
42:19
Speaker 3: And I think that was sort of, again, an emotional
42:21
Speaker 3: decision that was made by the president to back her.
42:24
Speaker 3: I like her personally, but I don't think it was
42:27
Speaker 3: the best candidate to put up. In the same way,
42:28
Speaker 3: I think that the same mistake was made in North Carolina,
42:34
Speaker 3: where I think the Republicans could have held that. if
42:36
Speaker 3: the president hadn't gone to war with the Republican incumbent.
42:40
Speaker 3: And the same thing in Texas. There are a lot
42:43
Speaker 3: of unforced errors here. I mean, Trump's numbers are low.
42:46
Speaker 3: I think the way any incumbent is going to be
42:48
Speaker 3: in the age of social media politics in the midterms,
42:51
Speaker 3: I think that's just built into the system. That's sort
42:53
Speaker 3: of structural at this point. Independent swing voters don't like
42:59
Speaker 3: the incumbent party, never will like the incumbent party. So
43:02
Speaker 3: I think we're going to see this boom of static phenomena.
43:05
Speaker 3: But the number of unforced errors that the GOP is
43:08
Speaker 3: making in some of these states is pretty significant. And
43:18
Speaker 3: I think Trump in particular has made some really bad judgments.
43:23
Speaker 2: Break those down for me because it's important we talk
43:24
Speaker 2: about this stuff because I don't want my audience, I
43:26
Speaker 2: try to be positive on the show, but I don't
43:30
Speaker 2: want people to be shocked, especially when we're seeing 3.7% inflation.
43:32
Speaker 1: I don't.
43:35
Speaker 2: We can't be waking up the day after the election going, well,
43:37
Speaker 2: we didn't see that one coming.
43:42
Speaker 3: Well, again, on inflation, if you take out gas and grocery,
43:46
Speaker 3: which I know are big items, inflation's in the twos.
43:51
Speaker 3: And again, it's significantly lower than it was under the
43:55
Speaker 3: Biden years. But look, I mean, I think you're dealing with,
44:00
Speaker 3: in Texas, I think you're dealing with has a lot
44:04
Speaker 3: of baggage in terms of his, you know, behavior, the, uh, impeachments,
44:09
Speaker 3: the investigations into him, his, you know, he doesn't present
44:13
Speaker 3: well in, in person. Um, I just think it was, uh,
44:19
Speaker 3: this was a grievance decision that was made by the
44:21
Speaker 3: president and taking out Cornyn in the same way. It
44:25
Speaker 3: was a grievance decision, I think with Tillis in North Carolina. And, um, uh,
44:32
Speaker 3: And I think an emotional decision to support somebody he
44:35
Speaker 3: was very close to, the kin of somebody he was
44:38
Speaker 3: very close to in South Carolina. These were not good
44:43
Speaker 3: decisions that the president made, if you want to hold
44:45
Speaker 3: on to a Republican Senate. And I don't say that
44:50
Speaker 3: gratuitously to criticize Trump. I think Trump has been good
44:53
Speaker 3: on a lot of policy issues. I think he hasn't
44:56
Speaker 3: been consistent enough in following through on them. I could
44:58
Speaker 3: give you a number of examples, university reform being one
45:01
Speaker 3: of them. Um, but, um, I think his impulsiveness is
45:06
Speaker 3: hurting him. Um, and you know, if the Senate, if
45:10
Speaker 3: the Senate, uh, if, if Texas flips to blue, which again,
45:15
Speaker 3: I don't think it will, but it could, it's very,
45:17
Speaker 3: very close. Dollar Rico has been about one point up,
45:19
Speaker 3: but I think the GOT, the GOP has the advantage
45:23
Speaker 3: on GOTV there. Um, but if it does switch Republican,
45:27
Speaker 3: it will be because the president handpicked, um, Paxton. there,
45:32
Speaker 3: which was a, which I think was a disastrous choice.
45:37
Speaker 1: Okay.
45:37
Speaker 2: So give me your, what is your closing? What is
45:42
Speaker 2: your closing pitch if you're Trump and the Republicans right now?
45:47
Speaker 3: Um, my closing pitch, if I am Trump is that
45:55
Speaker 3: we have improved the economy greatly, but we've got a
45:58
Speaker 3: long way to go or we've got a way to go. Um,
46:02
Speaker 3: Inflation is half of what it was under Biden. GDP
46:05
Speaker 3: growth is up. We are doing better on housing. We
46:11
Speaker 3: are doing better on consumer spending. We are doing better
46:13
Speaker 3: on business investment. Every sort of indicator of us moving
46:17
Speaker 3: forward is good. But we're going to do these following
46:22
Speaker 3: things to bring your health care costs down, to increase
46:25
Speaker 3: the supply of housing, to increase the supply of energy.
46:29
Speaker 3: And Iran... I understand the pain that you feel at
46:34
Speaker 3: the gas pump. But if Iran succeeds here, they will
46:40
Speaker 3: seek to displace U.S. global power to increase our cost
46:48
Speaker 3: of living, to decrease our standard of living in a
46:52
Speaker 3: way that is very significant and profound because the Chinese
46:56
Speaker 3: and the Russians are behind them. And we are fighting
46:58
Speaker 3: an existential war against a Nazi front. that will do
47:03
Speaker 3: very bad things if they succeed in terms of colonizing
47:06
Speaker 3: the Middle East and then going beyond that. And I
47:10
Speaker 3: think you have to make a case as to why
47:12
Speaker 3: what we're doing is the right thing and what we're
47:15
Speaker 3: going to do. And I don't hear anything from the
47:18
Speaker 3: GOP about what they would do if they retained power.
47:21
Speaker 3: All I hear is that the Democrats are socialists, which
47:25
Speaker 3: I think is a fair rap on them, but it's
47:28
Speaker 3: got to be more than that.
47:30
Speaker 2: Let me get your thoughts on where you think, what
47:32
Speaker 2: do you think is, and you can amend these before
47:35
Speaker 2: the election if you want, Julian, I'll invite you that.
47:37
Speaker 1: But as of now, what's your prediction?
47:42
Speaker 3: 5149 GOP in the Senate, a pickup of about 10
47:47
Speaker 3: in the House for the Democrats and the Democrats take
47:49
Speaker 3: the House.
47:51
Speaker 2: Are there any surprises that you're seeing that people think
47:55
Speaker 2: that you think everyone's got this race? Is there any
47:57
Speaker 2: races you think the punditry class has wrong right now?
48:00
Speaker 3: Minnesota. I think Flanagan is tied up in this welfare
48:05
Speaker 3: fraud in a way that is.
48:16
Speaker 3: Resonating with independent voters.
48:18
Speaker 1: Yeah.
48:19
Speaker 3: Um, uh, and I think that's something that could, I
48:21
Speaker 3: think that's something that could, um, uh, uh, where you
48:27
Speaker 3: could see a big surprise. Iowa, you know, um, Turok, again,
48:30
Speaker 3: I think is a stronger candidate than, than a lot
48:35
Speaker 3: of people recognize. Um, and, um, that could be the
48:40
Speaker 3: surprise on the Democratic side. Um, I don't think Kansas
48:43
Speaker 3: is going to flip, but I think Kansas is going
48:44
Speaker 3: to be a lot closer, uh, then it ought to be. Yeah.
48:47
Speaker 3: South Carolina is going to flip, but I think it's
48:49
Speaker 3: going to be closer than a lot of people think
48:51
Speaker 3: it ought to be. Watch also for, you know, what's
48:53
Speaker 3: happening in New York and the New York gubernatorial race.
48:58
Speaker 2: I'm glad you mentioned that because I think there's going
49:00
Speaker 2: to be a few fun ones that be at some
49:02
Speaker 2: place like California or New York where it's going to
49:05
Speaker 2: be way closer than you'd think. And I don't think
49:07
Speaker 2: that the result is necessarily going to be any different,
49:09
Speaker 2: but we're going to have a few fun ones that
49:11
Speaker 2: are late in the night.
49:12
Speaker 1: People go, whoa, wait a minute. This isn't over yet.
49:14
Speaker 1: And it should be over.
49:15
Speaker 2: But I don't necessarily think it's gonna the end result
49:17
Speaker 2: won't be the same uh i don't know how many
49:20
Speaker 2: actual surprises but i definitely my eye on minnesota for
49:23
Speaker 2: one of them and now my eyes on iowa thank
49:24
Speaker 2: you for that julian epstein read everything he writes in
49:26
Speaker 2: the new york post he appears elsewhere also you're the
49:29
Speaker 2: washington times too from time to time well where else
49:31
Speaker 2: do you pop.
49:31
Speaker 3: Up yeah i do the washington times i do the
49:33
Speaker 3: hill um the hill you know.
49:36
Speaker 2: And then follow him on the Everything app where he's at,
49:39
Speaker 2: Julian Epstein over there.
49:41
Speaker 1: And where else can people find you, Julian? Anything else
49:44
Speaker 1: I can plug?
49:45
Speaker 3: Yeah, Twitter or Exxon at Julian Epstein. Beautiful.
49:48
Speaker 1: Okay, great. Well, thank you. Thank you for being part
49:50
Speaker 1: of the show. As always, always a pleasure to talk
49:52
Speaker 1: to you and we will catch up very soon.
49:54
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a pleasure talking to you too, Alex. Thanks
49:56
Speaker 3: for having me. My pleasure as always.