Latest / Out of Bounds with Bo Bounds / Ms State DC Debate: Hutzler vs. Arnett ‖ Dave Bartoo

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Ms State DC Debate: Hutzler vs. Arnett ‖ Dave Bartoo · Out of Bounds with Bo Bounds

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  Speaker 1: Bo Bound Stay bar two on one oh five nine
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  Speaker 2: ESPN.
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  Speaker 1: UH before we talk sports betting, do you have Do
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  Speaker 1: you have any numbers on Arnette?
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  Speaker 2: Oh? Yeah, I got them right here. I got it
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  Speaker 2: right here, So we got.
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  Speaker 1: Zach Garnett is the new This is the weirdest thing
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  Speaker 1: in the world. Zach Arnett was the defensive coordinator Atsissippi State.
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  Speaker 1: The interim coach was fired after going five and seven
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  Speaker 1: to hire a two to ten coach, and now he
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  Speaker 1: is back as the defensive coordinator after two years of
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  Speaker 1: the Mississippi State fan base getting hutzlerd what is Zach
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  Speaker 1: Garnett as DC?
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  Speaker 2: Right? So and we got we got twenty twenty, twenty
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  Speaker 2: one and twenty two for him as DC. Okay, right,
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  Speaker 2: then you have him as head coach twenty twenty three,
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  Speaker 2: Frock with the DC, then right and then Huddler for
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  Speaker 2: the last two years. So pre Zach. So twenty nineteen,
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  Speaker 2: the defense I had it grated out as number eighty
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  Speaker 2: three in the country. Okay, they were sixty third in
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  Speaker 2: generating momentum for the offense. They were eighty second in EPA,
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  Speaker 2: and they were one hundred and second in points allowed
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  Speaker 2: per snap in scoring efficiency. That's the year before he
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  Speaker 2: got there. Year before he got there, okay, one hundred
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  Speaker 2: and second.
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  Speaker 1: Okay, So twenty twenty, Bob Shoot struggled a little bit
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  Speaker 1: and Joe Moorehead's last year.
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  Speaker 2: Okay, a lot of it, Okay, a lot of bit,
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  Speaker 2: a lot of it. Let's get let's give Zach a
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  Speaker 2: credit here. He took one hundred and second defense scoring
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  Speaker 2: efficiency defense in nineteen and it was number forty five
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  Speaker 2: in twenty twenty. Okay, okay, so there was an immediate
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  Speaker 2: impact there. But that was his best year.
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  Speaker 1: Which is interesting because he had to play ten conference
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  Speaker 1: games because of COVID, right.
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  Speaker 2: You know, And so overall he was ranked fiftieth nationally.
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  Speaker 2: Twenty twenty, twenty twenty one he was seventy third, so
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  Speaker 2: it took a step back, okay, and then twenty twenty
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  Speaker 2: two bumped right back up to twenty twenty levels at
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  Speaker 2: fifty five. All right, So his strength is his scoring
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  Speaker 2: efficiency a little bit. So his three years, his average
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  Speaker 2: scoring efficiency was sixty first in the country, okay. And
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  Speaker 2: his game control and momentum developed, which is the most
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  Speaker 2: powerful number in football outcome, that was sixty fourth.
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  Speaker 1: So you know, so he looks like Kirby Smart compared
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  Speaker 1: to Coleman Hutzler. But he had a more than solid
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  Speaker 1: run under Mike Leech, is what you're saying.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, he was you know something, And this isn't adjusted
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  Speaker 2: for talent. This is raw numbers. Okay, you know. To
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  Speaker 2: compare his scoring efficiency, he was forty five, sixty nine,
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  Speaker 2: and sixty eight in his three years. The last two years,
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  Speaker 2: Coleman was one twenty and ninety.
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  Speaker 1: One and ninety yep right, Hutsler was one twenty and nine.
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  Speaker 1: So in twenty twenty four, Coleman Hustler was one hundred
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  Speaker 1: and twentieth in defensive scoring efficiency.
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  Speaker 2: In twenty twenty five he was ninetieth right in defensive
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  Speaker 2: scoring efficiency yep, which.
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  Speaker 1: Is which puts him at one ten combined.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, you know.
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  Speaker 1: So for his so for his two years, I'm sorry,
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  Speaker 1: one oh five, my bad, good lord? Yeah, still early, Yeah,
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  Speaker 1: he is basically his his two years. If anybody remembers
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  Speaker 1: twenty nineteen with Shoot pre Arnette, yeah that was a
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  Speaker 1: better year than the last two.
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  Speaker 2: So think about that.
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  Speaker 1: Uh, y'all remember everything kind of imploded and got out
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  Speaker 1: from under Joe Morehead in year two. But a lot
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  Speaker 1: of the the the Jeffrey Simmons left, Jonathan Abram left,
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  Speaker 1: Montese Sweat left from the twenty eighteen team, and then
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  Speaker 1: you lost Fitz who could run the football and take
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  Speaker 1: the air of the ball and help the defense. I'm
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  Speaker 1: assuming some of this all ties together.
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  Speaker 2: Bartu can weigh in.
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  Speaker 1: But you had a good offense that could just pound
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  Speaker 1: the rock all that stuff that you want that Bar
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  Speaker 1: two's been talking about.
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  Speaker 2: You want to run the football and stop the run
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  Speaker 2: in this league.
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  Speaker 1: And then twenty nineteen Morehead and Shoop everything just went
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  Speaker 1: sad ways. So Bob Shoop in twenty nineteen was was
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  Speaker 1: better than Coleman either one of Coleman Hudtler's years.
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  Speaker 2: Right, Okay, So I think the sunshine here is Zach
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  Speaker 2: When he took over for twenty nineteen, right, right, he
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  Speaker 2: inherited the one hundred and second scoring efficiency defense, flipped
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  Speaker 2: it to forty five. Okay, you and I and everybody listening, well,
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  Speaker 2: absolutely one hundred percent by number forty five defense scoring
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  Speaker 2: efficiency defense in twenty twenty six, right now.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, I would think that, and you don't ever know
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  Speaker 1: how that correlates to wins, but I would think that
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  Speaker 1: that probably saves Levy's job.
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  Speaker 2: Oh okay, I'll tell you how it correlates to wins. Okay.
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  Speaker 2: There are three major metrics that have the highest correlation
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  Speaker 2: to winning almost ninety percent. Okay. If you win game control,
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  Speaker 2: you win over ninety percent of the games. If you
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  Speaker 2: win scoring efficiency, you win over eighty eight percent of
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  Speaker 2: the games. Okay, okay. So if you go from ninetieth
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  Speaker 2: and one hundred and twentieth to forty fifth in scoring efficiency, right,
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  Speaker 2: we're gonna win more football games. Like look at last year. Okay,
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  Speaker 2: you are one. In my mind, you are one hundred
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  Speaker 2: percent winning those three games that.
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  Speaker 1: You blew with a forty five defense Texas, Tennessee in Florida.
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  Speaker 2: Yep, Okay, yeah, you know. And even if it's two
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  Speaker 2: out of three, let's say it's just two out of three. Okay,
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  Speaker 2: that's two more wins. Yeah, you didn't have, So five
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  Speaker 2: and seven becomes seven and Five's the what's the energy
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  Speaker 2: and narrative today on state football? If you were seven
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  Speaker 2: and five.
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  Speaker 1: Jeff would have finished and he could have, like you said,
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  Speaker 1: because you gave back the Arizona State game, but took Texas,
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  Speaker 1: Tennessee and Florida, so you didn't take everything. If he
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  Speaker 1: is seven and five, everybody is fired up about right
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  Speaker 1: to Mississippi State football and Jeff Levy.
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  Speaker 2: Two wins, right, and this is why we talk about
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  Speaker 2: why staffing is so important. Day one. Rookie head coaches
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  Speaker 2: their biggest mistake what will get them fired ninety five
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  Speaker 2: percent of the time is they hire bad coaches and
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  Speaker 2: their buddies because they're too scared to make a decision
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  Speaker 2: on getting good guys there. They surround themselves with yes
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  Speaker 2: men and people that make them comfortable, and then they
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  Speaker 2: lose games and gets fired instead of bringing guys in
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  Speaker 2: at the beginning to have a higher ceiling and in
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  Speaker 2: a higher floor.
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  Speaker 1: Wow. And that's what Jeff Levy did, and he had
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  Speaker 1: no guidance from his a flag director, and you know
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  Speaker 1: Greg Byrne would not have allowed a Coleman Hutzler to
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  Speaker 1: be to be hired. Hutchler finished one hundred and twentieth
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  Speaker 1: in defensive scoring efficiency in twenty twenty four, ninetieth and
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  Speaker 1: twenty twenty five. Zach Garnett is a massive upgrade. Now
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  Speaker 1: where will he finish.
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  Speaker 2: We don't know.
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  Speaker 1: As bart he could finish forty fifth, sixty fifth, or seventieth.
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  Speaker 1: That now, look, even if he finishes seventh, that is
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  Speaker 1: a monster upgrade over Hutchler and still could be enough
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  Speaker 1: to get Levy over the finish line.
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  Speaker 2: As far as Win.
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  Speaker 1: I don't know what that number is on campus, whether
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  Speaker 1: it's six went. I mean, there's a there's a beautiful
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  Speaker 1: path to six. If you're any good at coaching seven,
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  Speaker 1: I get that that would be considered just a phenomenal year.
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  Speaker 1: But when you have at Minnesota at South Carolina, those
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  Speaker 1: are not super good teams. And when you have Vanderbilt,
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  Speaker 1: Missouri and Auburn at home there and then Tennessee Tech
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  Speaker 1: and limon road, there is a path to six.
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  Speaker 2: We got to take advantage of right opportunity, especially those
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  Speaker 2: home games, especially the games early in the season. You know,
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  Speaker 2: the Missouri because Missouri isn't going to be without their
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  Speaker 2: running back, right because I carried them on third down
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  Speaker 2: and fourth and short line. Maud Hardy. We'll be back
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  Speaker 2: in a second.
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  Speaker 1: Dave bar two Live from Dancing Rabbit Golf Clubs
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