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We already know who will win the midterms: expert

What happened

AlterNet’s headline overstates the evidence: no one already knows who will win the 2026 midterms. Henry Olsen of the Ethics and Public Policy Center wrote in The Washington Post that his model, based on generic congressional-ballot polling and the previous three midterms, projected Democrats winning between 225 and 232 of the House’s 435 seats. That is a forecast, not a result.

Polling analyst Kyle Kondik told AlterNet that President Donald Trump’s weak approval rating, economic dissatisfaction, foreign-policy concerns, and the governing party’s usual midterm disadvantage could…

The skinny

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