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Betfair vs Reality: Why Goal Markets Are Mispriced and How Traders Exploit It
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Most football traders assume Betfair has the goal markets nailed.
The odds move.
The clock ticks.
The prices “must” be right.
But that assumption is where most traders go wrong.
In this episode, I break down how Betfair actually prices goals, why time decay plays a bigger role than real match pressure, and where the market consistently lags behind what’s happening on the pitch.
You’ll learn:
How goal prices are really formed pre-match and in-play
Why 0–0 scorelines often create false value
How pressure, xG, and big chances expose mispriced markets
Why profitable traders bet…
The skinny
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