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After the Pause: Iran, Lebanon and the Next Round of Confrontation · UK Column Radio

0:10
Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome once again to the Syria Podcast. I
0:13
Speaker 1: am delighted today to be joined by Vanessa Billy as usual,
0:17
Speaker 1: but also Miriam Charbati for the first time on the
0:20
Speaker 1: UK called Welcome Miriam.
0:22
Speaker 2: Thank you both for having me. I look forward to
0:25
Speaker 2: talking more.
0:26
Speaker 1: About this and as usual, this is the Syria Podcast,
0:30
Speaker 1: but we're really talking regional issues and so although undoubtedly
0:35
Speaker 1: Syria is going to be part of this, the other
0:38
Speaker 1: activities that are going on in the region are of
0:41
Speaker 1: course going to be part of this as well. And
0:43
Speaker 1: the latest is apparently the Strait of Hormos is closed
0:46
Speaker 1: again and Trump is about to start bombing again. Hands up,
0:51
Speaker 1: everybody on this discussion that wasn't expecting this, glad to
0:58
Speaker 1: see neither've met your hands up. So just tell us
1:02
Speaker 1: how you think things are going to develop over the
1:05
Speaker 1: next little period, because obviously there's been claims of ceasefires
1:12
Speaker 1: which haven't really been ceased fires.
1:14
Speaker 2: Well, this is fire is a simple piece between battles
1:20
Speaker 2: kind of thing. It's a different version of the battle.
1:23
Speaker 2: So they're trying to achieve through diplomacy and indirect military
1:28
Speaker 2: actions what they could not achieve on the ground. And
1:31
Speaker 2: it's the same thing in Lebanon, and usually it always
1:34
Speaker 2: comes after heavy failures, like heavy blows, in which the
1:38
Speaker 2: military actually no longer has the capacity to achieve the
1:42
Speaker 2: goals initially set. So they need to maneuver a bit, regroup, regather,
1:49
Speaker 2: change a bit in the plants, try to find a
1:51
Speaker 2: new bank of targets. Just for the large part, I
1:55
Speaker 2: think they attempted a lot of targets in Iran and
2:00
Speaker 2: then Lebanon, and largely they were targeting ambushes, so they
2:08
Speaker 2: were targeting props, they were targeting now emptied locations, and
2:14
Speaker 2: that kind of increased the margin of failure of the
2:19
Speaker 2: Americans in the face of the Iranian and the resistance
2:22
Speaker 2: capacity in Lebanon, because this happened in both places. Obviously
2:27
Speaker 2: different ranges and different margins, but it happened in both places.
2:31
Speaker 2: And so now when Trump says we are gonna keep
2:36
Speaker 2: the blockade because Hormon's closed again because of the blockade,
2:40
Speaker 2: and the way the Iranians explained that is that the
2:44
Speaker 2: blockade is another way for American piracy. So instead of
2:49
Speaker 2: getting on the ground and taking the oil, they're now
2:53
Speaker 2: priating ships that have done so legally in it on
2:57
Speaker 2: and taking the products. Because I don't think it was
3:01
Speaker 2: only oil that they would plan to pirate, So in
3:07
Speaker 2: that respect, it is inevitable that we will see another
3:14
Speaker 2: rise and escalations. Now what that rise looks like, in
3:18
Speaker 2: my humble opinion, it might be worse and heavier than
3:23
Speaker 2: anything we saw before for two main reasons. One, Iran
3:27
Speaker 2: cannot cannot be as nice as they were in the
3:33
Speaker 2: first round. So yes, they had foregone a lot of
3:37
Speaker 2: the restraints which they had for the past fifty years
3:40
Speaker 2: forty seven years, but in this round they will forego
3:44
Speaker 2: even more of their restraints, and that increases the potential
3:49
Speaker 2: of stripes targeting American presence in the Gulf in Irol. Potentially,
3:56
Speaker 2: it could even go as far as targets US presence
4:01
Speaker 2: in Lebanon, even though that specifically has I believe it
4:07
Speaker 2: has a different way of being perceived for both the
4:10
Speaker 2: Iranians and the resistance, given that the specificity of Lebanon
4:16
Speaker 2: and the presence of the resistance in it, and the locations,
4:19
Speaker 2: and especially now with the with the forcibly displaced being
4:24
Speaker 2: integrated into regions which are highly in some places a
4:30
Speaker 2: highly pro u as Pact kind of thing. So from
4:36
Speaker 2: that perspective, I think we're about to see a bigger confrontation,
4:40
Speaker 2: and we're definitely going to see a bigger maritime confrontation.
4:45
Speaker 2: I also think correct me if I'm wrong, Goness, but
4:48
Speaker 2: I think a third aircraft carrier kind of moved in
4:51
Speaker 2: to the Middle East yesterday, had it towards US, and
4:56
Speaker 2: so that that doesn't happen without plans of continuing a war,
5:02
Speaker 2: because now the mere presence of the military US military
5:06
Speaker 2: in West Asia is actually attrition. It is by itself
5:12
Speaker 2: a type of attrition. They cannot leave because if they leave,
5:15
Speaker 2: they will never return, and them staying here is costing
5:19
Speaker 2: them a lot. I think we saw a lot of
5:21
Speaker 2: the concerns of US troops on aircraft carriers, especially with
5:26
Speaker 2: the food thing coming out lately. Basically they're not eating,
5:31
Speaker 2: to put it that way, They're on some sort of fasting.
5:36
Speaker 2: But yeah, I don't know if that answers the question,
5:38
Speaker 2: but I think we're headed towards another war, another kinetic war, Vanessa.
5:45
Speaker 1: The rhetoric from the Trump administration over the last week
5:50
Speaker 1: or so has been that, you know, this business of
5:54
Speaker 1: Iran's having to dig their weapons out of the ground
5:57
Speaker 1: because we've blown everything up to the point that they can't,
6:02
Speaker 1: you know, And my question is what is the what
6:08
Speaker 1: is the truth of this in Iran? In the past,
6:12
Speaker 1: you've discussed how Iran has has a manufacturing capability which
6:17
Speaker 1: is absolutely able to keep up with with with what
6:21
Speaker 1: they have been doing up to this point. Does that
6:23
Speaker 1: still apply if this escalates further?
6:26
Speaker 3: Well, funnily enough, I think yesterday I saw a tweet
6:30
Speaker 3: from one of the military analysts from inside Iran that
6:34
Speaker 3: actually said the production of the suicide drones is ten
6:39
Speaker 3: times greater than it was before the forty Day war began.
6:45
Speaker 3: And I think while you know, the focus is very
6:48
Speaker 3: much on perhaps the US side, because we're being inundated
6:54
Speaker 3: with lunatic rhetoric from Trump and his administration and reference
7:01
Speaker 3: what is going on. I mean, it's literally schizophrenic. It's
7:03
Speaker 3: flipping from one side to the other very rapidly. But
7:09
Speaker 3: in fact the pause itself, as Miriam said, it's not
7:14
Speaker 3: none of us really perceive it as a ceasefire. It's
7:18
Speaker 3: an agreed upon pause, just as actually the ceasefire in Lebanon,
7:23
Speaker 3: and Miriam can fill in a bit more about that,
7:26
Speaker 3: it hasn't in effect been a ceasefire. It's been a
7:29
Speaker 3: regrouping and a repositioning obviously for the Zinos forces that
7:36
Speaker 3: were taking a major beating. Despite the asymmetric nature of
7:41
Speaker 3: this war on the ground, even the most elite forces
7:47
Speaker 3: within the Zonus military were unable to effectively take control
7:52
Speaker 3: full control of a single major city in the south,
7:56
Speaker 3: and that includes bench Vail, which is three kilometers in
7:59
Speaker 3: from the southern border and which for the Zionus is
8:03
Speaker 3: a target from a revenge perspective, because they have been
8:08
Speaker 3: again defeated, you know, unceremoniously there previously in two thousand
8:15
Speaker 3: and six with the assassination of one of their senior commandos.
8:21
Speaker 3: So for them this is a personal venderato in Benchebert,
8:27
Speaker 3: and I think for Iran there hadn't been as far
8:31
Speaker 3: as I'm aware from the people that I've spoken to,
8:34
Speaker 3: any actual damage to the missile cities underground, because that's
8:38
Speaker 3: virtually impossible unless you start using tactical nukes or heavy
8:42
Speaker 3: duty bombing campaigns, which we haven't really seen so far.
8:48
Speaker 3: But there is probably debris at the entrance to these
8:51
Speaker 3: missile cities. The Iranian forces that are obviously operating within
8:57
Speaker 3: the missile cities haven't seen potentially daylight or haven't been
9:02
Speaker 3: released from those positions for the duration of the forty days,
9:07
Speaker 3: and so therefore, I think for Iran this was an
9:10
Speaker 3: important pause to re establish transport lines, railway lines, bridges, etc.
9:17
Speaker 3: Very quickly within that space of time for civilians, also
9:21
Speaker 3: to basically come to the aid of the civilians who
9:24
Speaker 3: have lost homes, who have had their homes damaged, who
9:28
Speaker 3: have potentially been in areas that have been isolated and
9:33
Speaker 3: without services. So that's been a very important aspect of
9:37
Speaker 3: this that isn't really talked about. That the Iranian government
9:40
Speaker 3: throughout the forty days has been very much focused not
9:44
Speaker 3: only on the war, but also on serving its population
9:48
Speaker 3: and enabling them to survive the war, to survive the
9:53
Speaker 3: deprivation in many areas. So I think that's been a
9:57
Speaker 3: very important aspect of this pause, which hasn't been focused
10:04
Speaker 3: on because the focus has been on the Hormost Straits.
10:08
Speaker 3: And I think the only other thing I want to
10:11
Speaker 3: point out is that, as Miriam said, the war of
10:15
Speaker 3: attrition against the US forces in the region has been tremendous.
10:21
Speaker 3: Most of their bases in the Zionist Arab states on
10:25
Speaker 3: the Persian Gulf have been severely damaged and rendered in
10:31
Speaker 3: money cases, as far as I can see from the
10:33
Speaker 3: satellite images, largely inoperable. Trump talks again and again, and
10:40
Speaker 3: Western media is talking about the build up of troops,
10:44
Speaker 3: but until now it's not gone above the fifty thousand,
10:50
Speaker 3: which is a ridiculous number if they're talking about a
10:53
Speaker 3: ground invasion, because even in Iraq it was something I mean,
10:58
Speaker 3: correct me if I'm wrong, it was a million troops
11:01
Speaker 3: around that number that were.
11:02
Speaker 4: Used in Iraq and Iran.
11:06
Speaker 3: You're talking of vast territory, a lot of it mountainous,
11:11
Speaker 3: a lot of it are impenetrable, and ninety seven million
11:16
Speaker 3: or ninety million population, twenty seven million of whom have
11:21
Speaker 3: signed up to defend the country as conscripts should there
11:25
Speaker 3: be a ground invasion. There are thousands of people transporting
11:30
Speaker 3: themselves to the three islands that might come under ground attack,
11:34
Speaker 3: like Karaj Island for example, and there is potential. Again,
11:39
Speaker 3: speaking to Essensafnagad the other day, he said the most
11:43
Speaker 3: likely target will be the islands, to try and take
11:46
Speaker 3: control of the islands in the kind of disputed islands
11:51
Speaker 3: in the Hormos Strait.
11:52
Speaker 4: But as he said, even this won't last.
11:55
Speaker 3: Even if they make it with special forces onto those islands,
11:58
Speaker 3: they kind of get kicked off again very quickly.
12:01
Speaker 4: Right, So I'm not quite sure I agree with Miriam.
12:06
Speaker 3: They're gonna take it upper notch, and I think Iran
12:10
Speaker 3: is now going to They've already said, whatever you target
12:15
Speaker 3: in Iran, we're going to be targeting external to Iran,
12:21
Speaker 3: in areas that are allying themselves with the United States
12:26
Speaker 3: or are harboring United States assets on their territory.
12:31
Speaker 4: There's also been.
12:33
Speaker 3: Notification from the Islamic Resistance in Iraq of a build
12:38
Speaker 3: up within Iraqi Kurdistan area and with Americans giving weapons
12:44
Speaker 3: to the Kurdish terrorist groups there, which in my opinion
12:51
Speaker 3: is completely insane, because are they going to take on
12:54
Speaker 3: the Iranian special forces on the eastern border and the
12:58
Speaker 3: PMU and the Islamic Resistance in Iraq and the Kurds
13:02
Speaker 3: are not renowned for their courage. My apologies to any
13:06
Speaker 3: Kurdish supporters, but they are really look at the history,
13:09
Speaker 3: the history in Syria, the history in Iraq where they
13:13
Speaker 3: betrayed the Christians in Iraq and left them to be
13:17
Speaker 3: and the Yazidis to be massacred by isis they don't
13:20
Speaker 3: have a reputation of courage, and the US is not
13:24
Speaker 3: going to support them, just as it hasn't supported the
13:27
Speaker 3: Gulf States. So other than increasing bombardment of Iranian structure infrastructure.
13:38
Speaker 3: At the moment, I think the ground invasion is another
13:42
Speaker 3: bluff by Trump, but I'd be interested in getting Miriam's
13:46
Speaker 3: take on that.
13:48
Speaker 2: Largely, I think it is a bluff, but it might
13:53
Speaker 2: not be. There are scenarios in which they would be
13:57
Speaker 2: thinking where it's it's it's not. The scenarios are very
14:02
Speaker 2: dangerous presidents for the world, so it would be major
14:08
Speaker 2: bombing campaigns. And now the bombing, I'm not sure what
14:12
Speaker 2: kind of bombing we're talking about. We can be talking
14:15
Speaker 2: about bombings we've never seen before. Below the threshold of
14:20
Speaker 2: nuclear nuclear bombs, there is a whole there's a whole
14:26
Speaker 2: section between what we've seen in nuclear bombs that has
14:30
Speaker 2: never been used, and I think we're about to see
14:35
Speaker 2: something within that. It could have some form of tactical
14:41
Speaker 2: nuke or I don't know. I'm not much of a
14:45
Speaker 2: military person, but do we have a version of it?
14:48
Speaker 3: Do you think we would say biological weapons things?
14:51
Speaker 2: Yes, that's the other that's the other version of weapons
14:56
Speaker 2: that we have not used and we have not seen
15:00
Speaker 2: being used. And so that being said, I think on
15:05
Speaker 2: some of the islands something of the sort might be prepared.
15:11
Speaker 2: Let's be clear, this will never work on it on mainland.
15:16
Speaker 2: All of all of these scenarios are most likely to
15:21
Speaker 2: happen on either the eye of in on kind of
15:27
Speaker 2: small border, so like two three kilometers and not not
15:32
Speaker 2: into not deep into it, on or towards the islands.
15:38
Speaker 2: In my opinion, we might see something of biological weapons
15:43
Speaker 2: being used. We might see tactical weapons being used. You
15:47
Speaker 2: might see a mix of both. We might see something
15:52
Speaker 2: similar to the shock and all, but bigger on a
15:55
Speaker 2: smaller piece of land.
15:57
Speaker 4: Uh.
15:58
Speaker 2: And through that, the Americans might attempt some form of
16:05
Speaker 2: ground invasion, but it would also be limited to the
16:09
Speaker 2: extent to which they can spread themselves. Right, So I
16:15
Speaker 2: don't know how viable it is to talk about major
16:20
Speaker 2: ground invasion. There is no grounds for that because the
16:24
Speaker 2: Iranian people what we saw in as Fahan was an
16:26
Speaker 2: attempt and it was not a mistake on behalf of
16:31
Speaker 2: the Americans. They were driven right into an ambush, right,
16:35
Speaker 2: So it was not like they weren't prepared for it. No, No,
16:39
Speaker 2: they were prepared for a certain kind of confrontation and
16:43
Speaker 2: as Fahan, but they were not prepared for is the
16:46
Speaker 2: air defense ambush. The people that were willing to shoot
16:50
Speaker 2: at them from everywhere, and they these were largely tribesmen
16:56
Speaker 2: that were willing to shoot from all directions. But the primary,
17:01
Speaker 2: the primary failure in a Swahan was the special the
17:05
Speaker 2: Iranian special ops that were ready and they knew exactly
17:10
Speaker 2: where the Americans are gonna land, right, they drove them,
17:14
Speaker 2: drove them to the ambush spot. And so by doing that,
17:21
Speaker 2: the Iranians proved that they understand US military mentality very well.
17:28
Speaker 2: They have studied it. They've studied it in Iraq, They've
17:30
Speaker 2: studied it likely in Uh, in Armenia with the Nagano Karapa,
17:38
Speaker 2: the war with Azerbaijan. They studied it in Russia, Ukraine.
17:46
Speaker 2: How the Ukrainians are functioning, where the Russians are messing up,
17:51
Speaker 2: How how it's it's developing. And they are capable now
17:55
Speaker 2: of driving uh the enemy right into a located preset
18:01
Speaker 2: ambush right, and that means that not only will they
18:05
Speaker 2: face special ops, they might even face missile stripes we
18:11
Speaker 2: might be seeing a direct missile strike on a certain ambush.
18:14
Speaker 4: Right, we are.
18:16
Speaker 2: Looking at at a very different kind of war than
18:21
Speaker 2: what we saw beforehand. And I think either that or
18:26
Speaker 2: the Americans are signing off their death and iron to
18:31
Speaker 2: be honest, because after the second part of the war,
18:35
Speaker 2: I do not believe the Americans will have much dignity,
18:42
Speaker 2: let alone the superiority to claim any efficient influence in
18:51
Speaker 2: West Asia beyond the political economic influence, whatever that may remain.
18:57
Speaker 2: So we're also looking at the mobilization in Iraq. While
19:04
Speaker 2: they have done miracles in Iraq the resistance, I mean,
19:08
Speaker 2: it remains that a lot needs to be done. Iraq
19:12
Speaker 2: is very big and the enemy is both foreign and local.
19:19
Speaker 2: There's a lot of collaborators, similar to the situation in Lebanon.
19:24
Speaker 2: And in addition to that, there are Syria on the border.
19:30
Speaker 2: So all of these mobilizations that could happen in Iraq
19:34
Speaker 2: draw an image of what kind of attrition the US
19:37
Speaker 2: will be facing if they attempt ground invasion and it on.
19:43
Speaker 2: And that attrition is not a minor attrition because the
19:47
Speaker 2: US leaving Iraq means the abandonment of Syria and the
19:52
Speaker 2: abandonment of Syria means the encircling of the US in
19:59
Speaker 2: Mount Lebanon and Tel Aviv. This is what would remain
20:04
Speaker 2: uh in in that geographical presence. And there's Jordan, but
20:08
Speaker 2: no one really takes that into large consideration because Jordan
20:13
Speaker 2: is a consequence and not not a core. The presence
20:17
Speaker 2: in Lebanon is part core, part consequence, but to a
20:22
Speaker 2: large degree, if it doesn't have a if it doesn't
20:28
Speaker 2: have a back, it cannot stand to put it that way.
20:32
Speaker 2: And if they lose Syria now by losing Iraq, they
20:37
Speaker 2: will eventually leave Lebanon on their own. I don't think
20:41
Speaker 2: there will be a need for the kind of confrontation
20:44
Speaker 2: people have imagined. And so for the Americans, Theatrician is
20:49
Speaker 2: much bigger than the concern of going into Iran. The
20:54
Speaker 2: going into Iran is an image of victory largely UH
21:01
Speaker 2: which they might try to achieve in various ways. They
21:05
Speaker 2: might take over a ship, they might do I don't know,
21:10
Speaker 2: something at a very small scale and then blow it
21:14
Speaker 2: up in a pr campaign as full achievement, and Trump
21:18
Speaker 2: can come out and make some lies about how this
21:21
Speaker 2: was great and he ended like I don't know, twelve
21:24
Speaker 2: wars now I don't know what count he's on.
21:27
Speaker 4: No way more than that I know.
21:33
Speaker 2: So from from here, I think the Americans are looking
21:39
Speaker 2: at bombing again, surely, but not as we've seen before,
21:44
Speaker 2: because that has failed. We also know for a fact
21:47
Speaker 2: that now the Americans also studied how we have been operating,
21:52
Speaker 2: so they definitely studied how it On has been operating,
21:56
Speaker 2: how the resistance has been operating, how I Rock has
21:58
Speaker 2: been operating, So we might all be looking at surprises
22:01
Speaker 2: on our end. That is not to say that the
22:04
Speaker 2: Americans no longer have cards to play. No, they do,
22:09
Speaker 2: and these cards might be very painful. Just so that
22:11
Speaker 2: we are clear from a position of understanding the conflict
22:16
Speaker 2: that a major operation which causes us as resistance movements
22:21
Speaker 2: and access heavy losses will not come as a shock.
22:26
Speaker 2: We are waiting for it. We are expecting it because
22:28
Speaker 2: you understand how they operate. We've seen it with the
22:31
Speaker 2: pagers attack, We've seen it with the assassinations. You've seen
22:36
Speaker 2: it in very various eras and ways. But any sort
22:42
Speaker 2: of attack of this form could be framed by the
22:46
Speaker 2: Americans as an image of victory and the Israelist but
22:50
Speaker 2: it will not alter anything on the ground. And the
22:53
Speaker 2: point now, from what I understand from Iranian, from an
22:57
Speaker 2: Iranian diplomatic perspective, is the goal is to show to
23:04
Speaker 2: the entire world that America has failed. That is the
23:08
Speaker 2: agreement that's happening in Pakstan. Everything else is a consequence
23:14
Speaker 2: of achieving that, because they could have achieved some sort
23:19
Speaker 2: of agreement with certain compromises, and we could have went
23:23
Speaker 2: into another twenty years of kind of cold war between
23:27
Speaker 2: it On and the US. But what is clear for
23:29
Speaker 2: it On is that the point of achieving the goals
23:34
Speaker 2: diplomatically is exactly the point of achieving the goals militarily,
23:38
Speaker 2: and that is to say, the Americans have failed. So
23:41
Speaker 2: if that negotiation does not lead to that, and an
23:44
Speaker 2: admission of failure by a compromise from the American side
23:49
Speaker 2: without any equal compromise from the Iranian side, that is
23:54
Speaker 2: the goal. That's the point. And if that happens, the
23:58
Speaker 2: Americans lose the goal. Uh And by loise the Golf,
24:02
Speaker 2: I mean the economy that allows the Americans to flourish,
24:07
Speaker 2: and the Gulf will alter, and with that altering, the
24:11
Speaker 2: Gulf would have larger freedom of operation and we might
24:15
Speaker 2: see a whole different map coming along, and whole different
24:20
Speaker 2: versions of alliances coming along, and the and the Gulf
24:25
Speaker 2: in Iraq and Lebanon in the whole region, and that
24:30
Speaker 2: different map is not Russia coming in and putting bases anywhere,
24:34
Speaker 2: and it's not China coming in and putting bases at anywhere.
24:37
Speaker 2: They will definitely be part of the change because they
24:40
Speaker 2: are major powers in the region, but that that involvement
24:45
Speaker 2: will not be from saving the Arab and Islamic world position.
24:50
Speaker 2: It will be from a point of interest, that mutual interest,
24:53
Speaker 2: shared interest between between these groups, which is something that
24:56
Speaker 2: does exist despite the fact that we know that Russian
25:01
Speaker 2: and China also have mutual interests with the Americans and
25:04
Speaker 2: the Israelis right, no one denies that. It's just the
25:09
Speaker 2: range of mutual interests between China and the US and
25:12
Speaker 2: Russia and the US is smaller than the mutual interests
25:14
Speaker 2: between Europe and the US. But they all have some
25:18
Speaker 2: sort of mutual interests, and so from that perspective, things
25:22
Speaker 2: might alter. But I think we're looking at a whole different,
25:26
Speaker 2: different world. And Iran has been acknowledged apologies by a
25:32
Speaker 2: lot of scholars as the new superpower, right, And when
25:38
Speaker 2: we talk about Iran as the new superpower. We're not
25:40
Speaker 2: talking about just around the state. We're talking about Iran relay.
25:46
Speaker 2: So we're talking about the Islamic Republic, which has real
25:54
Speaker 2: allies in the whole of West Asia, in the Islamic
25:57
Speaker 2: and the air worlds. And I insist on the term
26:03
Speaker 2: allyship because it comes with the specificity of freedom of
26:07
Speaker 2: operation without permission from Iran, but within the framework of
26:16
Speaker 2: just confrontation. And that really that's just to say, it's
26:21
Speaker 2: the same concept that we have in Christianity. We talk
26:23
Speaker 2: about just war theory. In the Vatican. We talk about
26:25
Speaker 2: that much less now, but that's because the Vatican abandoned
26:30
Speaker 2: the people and not because the theory itself no longer exists.
26:35
Speaker 2: We kind of lost that when we decided to separate
26:38
Speaker 2: state and religion. The Muslims did not do that, so
26:43
Speaker 2: from their perspective, it's a it's a bit different. On
26:46
Speaker 2: that note, these are two different experiences, and in general
26:53
Speaker 2: those two different experiences have shown that the minorities are
26:56
Speaker 2: so called minorities and the two the two different experiences
27:02
Speaker 2: have experienced life differently to a large degree in this region,
27:10
Speaker 2: whether it's the Jews, the Christians, the ads or really
27:15
Speaker 2: any of the ethnicities or sects that exist. We are
27:21
Speaker 2: perceived as an entire part of the fabric of society
27:26
Speaker 2: and not as sidelined kind of minorities. To each the role,
27:31
Speaker 2: to each, their goal, to each their capacity within the
27:34
Speaker 2: framework agreed upon.
27:36
Speaker 4: In the past.
27:37
Speaker 2: We did not see much of the same in the West.
27:39
Speaker 2: There is always that struggle between the individual and the
27:44
Speaker 2: capitalist system, and that has turned every single individual into
27:48
Speaker 2: a minority really unless you fit into the elite class.
27:51
Speaker 2: So it's a really different perception of the world. And
27:54
Speaker 2: from that we can say that it has emerged as
27:57
Speaker 2: superpower because of its role, because of its ability to
28:02
Speaker 2: engage with the whole region as a partner and not
28:07
Speaker 2: as a sovereign.
28:10
Speaker 1: Is this why Trump is using rhetoric like destroying the
28:15
Speaker 1: entire civilization? Is that what they actually fear?
28:19
Speaker 4: Yes?
28:20
Speaker 3: Absolutely, go ahead, No, I mean, I think this is
28:25
Speaker 3: a very important point when you look at Iran and
28:30
Speaker 3: what it represents as actually if you take out you know,
28:35
Speaker 3: the Islamic nature, if you actually look at the structure
28:39
Speaker 3: of governance in Iran, if you look at the financial system,
28:44
Speaker 3: if you look at healthcare, education which is still free
28:48
Speaker 3: and available for everyone, but particularly if you look at
28:51
Speaker 3: the financial system, which in nineteen eighty three a law
28:55
Speaker 3: was actually passed that banks would have to operate under
28:58
Speaker 3: usury free systems. And as many of the more aware
29:05
Speaker 3: financial commentators now are starting to understand when they're talking
29:09
Speaker 3: about a kind of global technocratic alliance that is bringing
29:13
Speaker 3: in the CBDC, the AI surveillance and so on and
29:17
Speaker 3: so forth, Iran is actually external to this in its
29:22
Speaker 3: internal government system, in its sustaining free healthcare, free education
29:29
Speaker 3: across the country, so across the population of ninety million,
29:34
Speaker 3: and then look at the banking system, which is completely
29:38
Speaker 3: divorced from any kind of global capitalist system, right, and
29:44
Speaker 3: so this in itself is an anathema to a West
29:48
Speaker 3: or to the United States that is trying to build.
29:51
Speaker 3: And you know, I take Trump out of the equation
29:53
Speaker 3: of this, because we know that the presidents are only
29:56
Speaker 3: representatives of those that are bringing them to power and
29:59
Speaker 3: are maintaining them in power while they fulfill a part
30:03
Speaker 3: of the roadmap that is actually leading to the destination
30:08
Speaker 3: designed by technocracy behind the throne, if you like.
30:14
Speaker 4: And so for.
30:14
Speaker 3: Them, it's incredibly important to dismantle Iran as an example,
30:21
Speaker 3: as Miriam touched on, what is happening is Iran even
30:26
Speaker 3: in the West now for people that are really looking
30:28
Speaker 3: deeply into this, that are reading the Iranian constitution, that
30:32
Speaker 3: are actually kind of going behind the sort of grating
30:38
Speaker 3: of propaganda that proventially looking further than should women wear.
30:42
Speaker 4: Their hit job or not.
30:44
Speaker 3: And this is the deliberate ploy by the West to
30:47
Speaker 3: prevent people actually looking at what Iran represents. One the
30:51
Speaker 3: core ideology of Shia Muslim is the protection of the
30:55
Speaker 3: oppressed rather than expansion or or subjugation of the enemy. No,
31:05
Speaker 3: it's about so if, in other words, if the oppression
31:08
Speaker 3: of Lebanon ceases, or the oppression of Palestine ceases, or
31:14
Speaker 3: the oppression of Syria ceases and so on, then Iran
31:20
Speaker 3: steps back.
31:22
Speaker 4: But the thing is that isn't happening.
31:24
Speaker 3: And by when people look at a victory in this war,
31:29
Speaker 3: they tend to look at, well, who's throwing the most bombs,
31:32
Speaker 3: who has the least casualties, who is gaining ground.
31:37
Speaker 4: Etcetera, etcetera.
31:37
Speaker 3: They're looking at it in a very, in my opinion,
31:40
Speaker 3: kind of war video game narrative scenario. But the reality
31:45
Speaker 3: is just by surviving Iran and the entire resistance access
31:50
Speaker 3: are winning. If you look at Lebanon and you look
31:53
Speaker 3: at April the eighth, what happened on April the eighth,
31:56
Speaker 3: and the massacre that entailed from one hundred and fifty
31:59
Speaker 3: bombs dropped by in the space of ten minutes in
32:02
Speaker 3: heavily populated civilian areas, some of the poorest areas in
32:07
Speaker 3: the southern suburbs of Beirut. You would think, you know,
32:13
Speaker 3: that's it, it's the end, right, But brute force doesn't
32:16
Speaker 3: equal victory. Survival and the maintenance of the entire mechanism
32:23
Speaker 3: of resistance and attrition and survival is what brings victory.
32:28
Speaker 4: And if Iran can survive whatever.
32:33
Speaker 3: Israel and the US throws at it, it's one because
32:38
Speaker 3: the longer it survives and the longer it doesn't compromise. Again,
32:42
Speaker 3: as medium said, people understand what holds this country up.
32:49
Speaker 3: And if you look at the people in Iran are
32:52
Speaker 3: still going to their streets in their tens, hundreds of
32:55
Speaker 3: thousands across the country. Why and I posted about this
32:59
Speaker 3: yes today, because those people know they're not disenfranchised. Those
33:05
Speaker 3: people know that they can bring pressure to bear upon
33:08
Speaker 3: the Iranian government whether it's revolutionary members of that government
33:12
Speaker 3: or reformist members of that government, to act according to
33:16
Speaker 3: their wishes, and their wishes is to not compromise, not
33:21
Speaker 3: to close the Hormons straight, to defend Lebanon and the
33:25
Speaker 3: entire resistance access or to support it, and to not
33:32
Speaker 3: come away with anything but the victory. And that puts
33:37
Speaker 3: the fact that those people are still going on the
33:39
Speaker 3: streets puts that pressure on the government to take decisions
33:45
Speaker 3: which are not going to turn against let me just finish.
33:49
Speaker 3: You don't find that level of power from the people
33:55
Speaker 3: in the West, now, do you.
33:56
Speaker 2: Yeah. So when we talk about you know, on from
34:00
Speaker 2: from the ability of the people to take decisions in Iran,
34:04
Speaker 2: you know is actually the closest thing to the ideal
34:07
Speaker 2: democracy that people have lived in their heads but never
34:12
Speaker 2: in experience. It on is the closest thing to that
34:16
Speaker 2: as a structure, and in the same way, it perceives
34:21
Speaker 2: the entire resistance movement in the region.
34:26
Speaker 4: And to that.
34:26
Speaker 2: Degree, the reason why Youreon would not compromise on any
34:32
Speaker 2: of of the resistance movements in the region is as
34:37
Speaker 2: long as they don't compromise is quite particularly not just
34:41
Speaker 2: mutual interests, because there is an aspect of mutual interest
34:45
Speaker 2: between the two, but there is an ideological belief that
34:50
Speaker 2: if they do compromise, then this is a sin. They
34:53
Speaker 2: have sinned because these people have counted on them, they
34:59
Speaker 2: have built their trust with them, and they have built
35:03
Speaker 2: their entire strategy of confrontation on a concept that Iran
35:08
Speaker 2: would not set out. Now, let's be clear, if when
35:12
Speaker 2: it's very far away, if Iran does compromise, that does
35:16
Speaker 2: not mean the resistance will disintegrate per se. There will
35:22
Speaker 2: always be some version of resistance as it was, and
35:25
Speaker 2: it has existed before the Islamic Revolution in Iran, and
35:29
Speaker 2: the Islamic Revolution in Iran was actually largely its supporters
35:33
Speaker 2: were trained by half. As I said in Syria. The
35:35
Speaker 2: concept of resistance in the region is goes far back
35:41
Speaker 2: from the Islamic Revolution, but its backing has given the
35:46
Speaker 2: resistance movement so much power because it has a full
35:51
Speaker 2: economic system, it has a full religious system, it has
35:55
Speaker 2: the full backing of Shias across the entire region and
35:59
Speaker 2: the world, and it has the backing of all folks
36:04
Speaker 2: who are not in the region that back the resistance.
36:07
Speaker 2: You can go and support them and in various ways
36:11
Speaker 2: to put it that way, whether it's financially or materially
36:14
Speaker 2: or otherwise. And so from that perspective, understanding that it
36:18
Speaker 2: ON treats the decisions it makes based on the will
36:25
Speaker 2: of the people as long as it fits into the
36:29
Speaker 2: ethics of the religion, we can see that the decision
36:34
Speaker 2: making and it ON is actually far beyond the border
36:39
Speaker 2: of per Europe. And I say that because you known
36:43
Speaker 2: itself has has has an internal issue, which is the
36:48
Speaker 2: divide between the Persian identity and the Islamic identity. And
36:52
Speaker 2: there has been several classes at many times. But Aytola
37:00
Speaker 2: from Romani and Aotola Dahlia uh be upon them. What
37:09
Speaker 2: they were able to do is they were able to
37:11
Speaker 2: reconcile the two between history and ethics. This has been
37:19
Speaker 2: the point of reconciliation. Neither of them denied the Persian history.
37:23
Speaker 2: And everybody knows Persia is one of the places that
37:26
Speaker 2: has never been truly conquered, and that that comes from
37:30
Speaker 2: from a history, and not not just the mythology of Persia,
37:36
Speaker 2: but the ethics that were added through the Islamic Revolution
37:42
Speaker 2: built upon a lot of the Persian ethics, and those
37:46
Speaker 2: ethics matched exactly the ethics of the wider area in
37:50
Speaker 2: which Persia exists and which has been a necessary, continuous,
37:57
Speaker 2: undeniable integration between Persia, the Turkmen in Turkey today and
38:04
Speaker 2: the Arabs. And if we put all of this into
38:09
Speaker 2: context to understand that today, when the resistance in Lebanon
38:13
Speaker 2: says we will go to war for the blood of
38:20
Speaker 2: Sayd Ali Kaminai, they do not just mean the person.
38:24
Speaker 2: Regardless of the fact that if we're up to me,
38:28
Speaker 2: I would say this man deserves at the very least
38:32
Speaker 2: this kind of response. But more than that, it's because
38:36
Speaker 2: the initial aggression on him was an aggression on the
38:41
Speaker 2: identity of the Islamic Revolution and the identity of the
38:46
Speaker 2: whole region which has always been interconnected between Persia and
38:52
Speaker 2: the Arabs, always historically, regardless of some parts of history
38:57
Speaker 2: where there was wars between them, and that's a natural
39:00
Speaker 2: of process, but there was never a time in which
39:04
Speaker 2: trade and socio economic ties were actually fully broken. There
39:09
Speaker 2: was never a.
39:10
Speaker 1: Time like that.
39:10
Speaker 2: And so when you attack that these two aspects, you
39:14
Speaker 2: are attacking the core of the entire region. And to
39:16
Speaker 2: do that, you don't just need to eliminate the civilization
39:18
Speaker 2: in Iran. You need to eliminate the civilization everywhere because
39:22
Speaker 2: the way lie at alphabet came from Mount Hamil in
39:25
Speaker 2: South Lebanon. The concept of it came from Mount Amal
39:28
Speaker 2: and self Lebanon and not from com So when we
39:32
Speaker 2: understand that dynamic, we see that no, that the war
39:35
Speaker 2: that Trump is launching is a war on our entire
39:39
Speaker 2: people in this part of the world.
39:41
Speaker 1: Earlier on, Vanessa said, if you take the Islamic aspect
39:46
Speaker 1: of it, for people that are in the West trying
39:51
Speaker 1: to understand what's going on in with Iran or in
39:55
Speaker 1: Iran at the moment, they are, you know, obviously bump
40:00
Speaker 1: barded with rhetoric about it being an Islamic dictatorship. But
40:06
Speaker 1: there's also a diaspora in in the West that some
40:12
Speaker 1: may support the old regime of the Shah, others are
40:16
Speaker 1: against that, but they're also against the The Islamic Republic.
40:22
Speaker 1: Hired people to get a sort of an objective view
40:27
Speaker 1: of of what what Iran is actually like, you know,
40:33
Speaker 1: because we're bombarded with so much propaganda about about what
40:39
Speaker 1: Iran is like, and and of course that propaganda is
40:43
Speaker 1: largely providing support for this this ongoing action.
40:50
Speaker 3: I think, first of all follow Iranian commentators, particularly the
40:58
Speaker 3: academics female like that makes that are commentating on social
41:02
Speaker 3: media and are appearing on YouTube interviews and so on,
41:06
Speaker 3: because you will get a completely different perspective about life
41:09
Speaker 3: and Iran.
41:11
Speaker 4: This is always the problem.
41:12
Speaker 3: I mean, in Syria, who was the greatest enemy of Syria.
41:15
Speaker 3: It was the diaspora Syrians that are paid by the
41:18
Speaker 3: West to effectively support their regime change narratives. And that's
41:23
Speaker 3: exactly what is happening. You know, how can you support
41:27
Speaker 3: so called Iranians who were probably born in diaspora, have
41:32
Speaker 3: grown up in the American or the European or the
41:34
Speaker 3: UK education system and benefit from working within the system
41:41
Speaker 3: that is trying to destroy their country, and are literally
41:44
Speaker 3: calling for the bombardment of their own people, sanctions upon
41:48
Speaker 3: their own people. In my opinion, they shouldn't be allowed
41:55
Speaker 3: citizenship of the country that they're calling for the destruction
41:58
Speaker 3: of the same way that Mansur Hardi in twenty fifteen
42:02
Speaker 3: left Yemen. He wasn't kicked out, he had actually already resigned.
42:08
Speaker 4: Twice, but on the basis.
42:11
Speaker 3: Of what happened in twenty fifteen, he went to Saudi
42:15
Speaker 3: Arabia and called for the bombing of his people and
42:17
Speaker 3: the sanctioning of his people. You know, this is utterly
42:23
Speaker 3: criminal in my opinion. The same thing happened in Syria.
42:26
Speaker 4: Who ensured.
42:28
Speaker 3: That the sanctions were not only maintained on Syria, but
42:33
Speaker 3: were increased to a barbaric level with the Caesar sanctions
42:36
Speaker 3: that the first Trump administration brought in. The problem is
42:41
Speaker 3: that when I say, I don't want to be insulting
42:45
Speaker 3: by saying when you look past the Islamic.
42:50
Speaker 4: Perspective, but in a way, people in the West need
42:53
Speaker 4: to do that.
42:54
Speaker 3: They need to look at how the system actually works
42:57
Speaker 3: in Iran and compare it to how it works the West.
43:01
Speaker 4: We don't have.
43:01
Speaker 3: I mean, democracy is just a mirage in the last
43:04
Speaker 3: it's just terminology, like the missionary terminology, which is used
43:09
Speaker 3: to actually subjugate, colonize, invade, and send countries back, as
43:17
Speaker 3: Trump has said, to the Stone ages. Literally that is
43:20
Speaker 3: what they're doing. And they are erasing culture, civilization systematically.
43:25
Speaker 3: If you look at the damage that's being done to
43:28
Speaker 3: the history in Syria, the culture in Syria, the civilization
43:32
Speaker 3: in Syria. In Yemen, they were bombing some of the
43:35
Speaker 3: most ancient civilizational structures from the beginning in Lebanon. What
43:40
Speaker 3: are they doing now? They're targeting sword or tires. People
43:45
Speaker 3: will know it again one of the most incredible historic
43:50
Speaker 3: sites in the country.
43:53
Speaker 4: And so.
43:55
Speaker 3: Yeah, Palmira, you know, overtaken twice by Isis and destroyed
44:02
Speaker 3: exponentially each time. So I think, you know, I don't
44:10
Speaker 3: know how you break through this kind of collective hypnosis
44:16
Speaker 3: and fear of the Islamophobia really, which has been created
44:24
Speaker 3: and maintained by the Zionus. They were the ones that
44:30
Speaker 3: gave life to this concept of Islamic extremism, which then
44:35
Speaker 3: led to Islamophobia.
44:38
Speaker 4: And that's why I'm saying trying.
44:40
Speaker 3: I don't know if people can try to view it
44:42
Speaker 3: not through the lens of Islam, because.
44:45
Speaker 4: I'm not a religious person.
44:47
Speaker 3: I tend not to view things through the Christian lens,
44:51
Speaker 3: or the Islamic lens, or any religious lens. But I
44:54
Speaker 3: look at it through the lens of humanity. What system
44:59
Speaker 3: serves human what system serves their people, what system takes
45:03
Speaker 3: care of their population and the poorest of their population.
45:06
Speaker 3: I've witnessed that myself in Iran, where the poorest areas
45:10
Speaker 3: in Tehrana receiving free gas, free water, free heating, free fuel.
45:17
Speaker 3: We don't have that in the last and yet we're
45:20
Speaker 3: supposedly exporting our system as being, you know, the utopia
45:26
Speaker 3: for the future.
45:27
Speaker 4: It isn't so, I guess from my.
45:31
Speaker 3: Perspective as it's not that I don't believe, it's just
45:35
Speaker 3: I don't adhere to any one particular ideology or religion,
45:40
Speaker 3: but I look at it through the lens of humanity.
45:42
Speaker 3: And when I look at it through the lens of humanity.
45:44
Speaker 3: Even in Syria, let's take Saria as an example. I
45:47
Speaker 3: lived there for five years, worked there for ten years.
45:50
Speaker 3: The health system was the jewel in the crown of
45:53
Speaker 3: this region. The Algindy Cancer Hospital was the largest and
45:59
Speaker 3: most advanced in the region and was blown up by
46:01
Speaker 3: terrorist suicide bombers truck bombers. Right now, what's happening under Jolani,
46:09
Speaker 3: the al Qaedo regime that was put in power by
46:12
Speaker 3: the worst to give freedom to the people and bring
46:16
Speaker 3: democracy to Syria.
46:18
Speaker 4: What is he doing?
46:19
Speaker 3: He's privatizing the health service one and I saw a
46:23
Speaker 3: report like two or three days ago that broke my heart.
46:26
Speaker 3: There are now outbreaks of scabies and other diseases in
46:30
Speaker 3: the hospitals these hospitals where people were going for free healthcare.
46:35
Speaker 3: The whole time I was there, I benefited from it
46:38
Speaker 3: at least two occasions. It was one of the best
46:42
Speaker 3: health systems I've ever experienced and the fastest. And now
46:46
Speaker 3: that is being eroded and privatized, and so it's heading
46:49
Speaker 3: the way of the utopian in their view West, and
46:54
Speaker 3: it's a dystopia for the people here who have effectively
46:59
Speaker 3: benefited from the best systems until they're eroded and destroyed
47:05
Speaker 3: and eradicated by the collective West and design of tendity.
47:12
Speaker 2: I fully agree with what Vanessa is saying. What I
47:15
Speaker 2: also have to add is that Testnima is just saying
47:18
Speaker 2: that it looks like the Ranians will not go into
47:20
Speaker 2: round two because of Trump's excessive demands and his blockade.
47:25
Speaker 2: So I think we're gonna go back into the threshold
47:30
Speaker 2: of confrontation much faster than anticipated, at least by the
47:36
Speaker 2: people in the West. Because of the analysis I've seen
47:38
Speaker 2: on Twitter and on outlets, We're definitely going back into
47:44
Speaker 2: a confrontation. I can confirm that yesterday there was an
47:47
Speaker 2: aggression in South Lebanon targeting an individual. We have one
47:51
Speaker 2: more tear and we have had massive demolitions across the border,
47:57
Speaker 2: all of which are considered I would not call them violations.
48:00
Speaker 2: They are dark attacks and a continuation of the Israeli
48:04
Speaker 2: war on Lebanon. And I believe perhaps in the next
48:08
Speaker 2: few hours twenty four forty eight hours, we're going to
48:11
Speaker 2: see a different positioning from from the from the resistance
48:16
Speaker 2: from the region, perhaps even from the Americans, according to
48:19
Speaker 2: what's being revealed now.
48:22
Speaker 1: Well, since you mentioned Lebanon, I did want to just
48:26
Speaker 1: touch on that because obviously, over the last few days,
48:29
Speaker 1: the supposed seas far was was brought in and by
48:32
Speaker 1: the way, Trump did already claim that to be his
48:34
Speaker 1: twelfth success. But anyway, obviously there's been talk of negotiations
48:42
Speaker 1: for the first time between Israel and Lebanon, and I
48:45
Speaker 1: wanted to get some inside from me Miriam, about what
48:50
Speaker 1: the the Lebanese government position is going to be, because
48:58
Speaker 1: you know my understanding is, and you tell me if
49:00
Speaker 1: this is wrong, that they are generally positive failing towards Israel,
49:08
Speaker 1: and that Israel would very much like to see some
49:12
Speaker 1: kind of deal done with the Lebanese government so that
49:15
Speaker 1: Hezbollah is being hit from both sides effectively.
49:18
Speaker 2: You see This is like I don't know if you
49:23
Speaker 2: have kids, Mike, but it's like me going up to
49:25
Speaker 2: one of your kids and making an agreement with them
49:27
Speaker 2: that we are gonna kick you out out of the house.
49:31
Speaker 2: And then you come in and you do whatever you
49:33
Speaker 2: want and you stay in the house and there's nothing
49:34
Speaker 2: that your kid it can do about it. But we
49:37
Speaker 2: had an agreement, like there is, there is an agreement
49:39
Speaker 2: between us, and you look at them and you can't
49:43
Speaker 2: actually do that. It's it's useless to put it that way.
49:46
Speaker 2: It's irrelevant and to fix it wrong here it is
49:50
Speaker 2: not unprecedented. In nineteen eighty two, Beshiri Jumel became president
49:56
Speaker 2: of Lebanon while Israel besieged Beiru and here locally he
50:02
Speaker 2: is known to have come to the presidency atop an
50:05
Speaker 2: Israeli tank. So so from that that perspective, beshiinish Mail
50:14
Speaker 2: was elected president force Philly at a time when the
50:18
Speaker 2: American New Jersey was at the shores of Beirut and
50:22
Speaker 2: when the Israelis were in the heart of Beirut besieging it.
50:26
Speaker 2: And what happened later was that a man called have
50:30
Speaker 2: Shartoni he assassinated bilish Mayel to put it that way,
50:37
Speaker 2: and that assassination was known locally and across the region
50:43
Speaker 2: as imposing the decision of the people of rejecting any
50:50
Speaker 2: normalization with the Israeli enemy. There was a plan at
50:53
Speaker 2: the time of his election of normalizing ties between Beirut
50:58
Speaker 2: and Tel Aviv, and his brother emin Ismael, who became
51:02
Speaker 2: president after him, moved on to sign that agreement in
51:09
Speaker 2: nineteen eighty three. And then what happened is basically nothing.
51:14
Speaker 2: That agreement didn't go into effect. It was during the war.
51:18
Speaker 2: There was a coup and ultimately the New Jersey and
51:22
Speaker 2: the Americans and the Green Beret and Beirut were bombed
51:27
Speaker 2: with the famous Operation against Them, and then the Israelis
51:34
Speaker 2: were forced out of Lebanon until liberation in two thousand,
51:38
Speaker 2: they were gradually moving backwards. And so what I can
51:43
Speaker 2: confirm is that Lebanon has a history of dealing with
51:50
Speaker 2: traitors and the way they understand. So it's up to
51:55
Speaker 2: the presidency, up to the government to understand the extent
51:58
Speaker 2: of their power and the limitations that they face before
52:02
Speaker 2: it's it's too late. The statement by President yesterday proved
52:09
Speaker 2: that the political Marinite uh Achelon has failed to learn
52:15
Speaker 2: anything from their from their history, and has failed to
52:19
Speaker 2: read regional changes at a time when the Americans themselves
52:23
Speaker 2: have been capable of doing that, the French themselves have
52:26
Speaker 2: been capable of doing that.
52:27
Speaker 3: Uh.
52:28
Speaker 2: And they're throwing once again, uh, their whole bets into
52:33
Speaker 2: one bucket, and that bucket seems to be on a
52:35
Speaker 2: sinking ship. So it seems that we are facing a
52:41
Speaker 2: major confrontation. A statement by mister came out today and
52:46
Speaker 2: the statement by hash was made yesterday through the BBC.
52:54
Speaker 2: Both of them said the same thing. Primarily, UH, there's
52:57
Speaker 2: a sense will never disarm and if they can disarm it,
53:00
Speaker 2: they're welcome to try, but that would lead to a
53:03
Speaker 2: direct confrontation not with the armed resistance, but with the
53:06
Speaker 2: people who support the armed resistance. And I can confirm
53:09
Speaker 2: that the people who support the armed resistance in this country.
53:12
Speaker 4: Are not.
53:14
Speaker 2: Are not defined to re sect, and I think to
53:18
Speaker 2: a large degree, the political Achelon knows that. And what
53:25
Speaker 2: is happening is that they're trying to convince Rial to
53:28
Speaker 2: continue to support Nawa Salem and President On. But ultimately
53:34
Speaker 2: it seems that Rial is also connecting with Iran and
53:37
Speaker 2: the resistance and Nabibility who's the speaker of parliament, but
53:43
Speaker 2: he is also the head of the Amal movement, which
53:47
Speaker 2: is known as kind of a sister political party to Hasbola,
53:56
Speaker 2: and they are both the two major parties and the
53:59
Speaker 2: country because this is a sectarian country. Uh, don't don't
54:02
Speaker 2: call me sectarian. The country is divided in sectarian terms,
54:07
Speaker 2: and our political positions are divided in sectarian for terms,
54:10
Speaker 2: the president is always a Marinite, the speaker of parliament
54:13
Speaker 2: is always a Shah, and the head of the government
54:14
Speaker 2: is always a Sunni uh and so and and these
54:18
Speaker 2: positions require the full support of their sect for it
54:21
Speaker 2: to to be able to to function and operate. And
54:25
Speaker 2: it seems that the Sinnis in Lebanon are not largely
54:28
Speaker 2: backing uh Nawa Selam and so we're looking at potential
54:33
Speaker 2: of aderic confrontation. However, the ones who can so a
54:38
Speaker 2: civil war requires two parties, right, the ones who can
54:41
Speaker 2: lead the civil war, which are the resistance movement they rejected,
54:45
Speaker 2: and the ones who don't want or cannot lead it
54:48
Speaker 2: don't have the capacity uh to start one. So from
54:52
Speaker 2: that perspective, we're looking at a confrontation that might not
54:56
Speaker 2: even need to happen, because what has been clear since
55:00
Speaker 2: the era of Rolla is that at any point when
55:07
Speaker 2: the confrontation could turn into internal attrition, what's going to
55:10
Speaker 2: happen is we're going to hit the head of a snake.
55:13
Speaker 2: The head of the snake is the Americans, and on
55:17
Speaker 2: the ground it's the Israelis. For this time, we don't
55:20
Speaker 2: know when that will change, but for now I believe
55:24
Speaker 2: that we will not even get near doing so. And
55:29
Speaker 2: if in the event Joseph Fahn heads to Washington and
55:34
Speaker 2: science and agreement, I highly doubt he will be able
55:37
Speaker 2: to come back. He would be worried for his life
55:40
Speaker 2: because the majority of the people of Lebanon reject any
55:44
Speaker 2: form of normalization and are willing to defend it by
55:48
Speaker 2: any means possible, because that is the will of the people,
55:51
Speaker 2: and that is our constitution actually, and in the case
55:54
Speaker 2: of grand betrayal, it is constitutionally acceptable for the people
55:59
Speaker 2: to their decision, and until this moment, the constitution has
56:04
Speaker 2: not changed. There has not been an alteration in the constitution.
56:07
Speaker 2: So any meeting between the Lebanese and in Israeli is
56:10
Speaker 2: actually it would actually result in grand betrayal and would
56:14
Speaker 2: actually result in jail time. Until this moment, there are
56:18
Speaker 2: lawyers putting forward accusations against the Lebanese ambassador in Washington
56:24
Speaker 2: who has met with the Israeli ambassador, and that is
56:27
Speaker 2: a breach of the constitution. And then the event that
56:30
Speaker 2: the President picks up the call with Natanyahu or meets
56:33
Speaker 2: him in Washington, that would be much of the same.
56:37
Speaker 2: So this is going to unfold. But Lebanon does have
56:39
Speaker 2: a history of a group wanting normalization and the group
56:44
Speaker 2: that is heavily backed by the US wanting normalization in
56:49
Speaker 2: the face of the majority which does not want it
56:52
Speaker 2: and will not abandon its right to not want it.
56:56
Speaker 2: From that perspective, we have more than two thousand martyrs
56:59
Speaker 2: in this In this war, we have more than ten
57:01
Speaker 2: thousand martyrs since twenty twenty three. I don't think people
57:04
Speaker 2: are going to compromise on the blood of these martyrs.
57:08
Speaker 1: Does the United States have a significant enough presence in
57:13
Speaker 1: Lebanon to change that change?
57:16
Speaker 2: When the US had its biggest presence in Lebanon was
57:19
Speaker 2: in the nineteen eighties, they failed. That's exactly what I'm
57:23
Speaker 2: trying to say. When they had their biggest presence military politically,
57:27
Speaker 2: the Israelis had taken over by Rut. The Americans had
57:32
Speaker 2: taken over the north of Beirut, which is known as
57:34
Speaker 2: the Eastern so we had eastern western Beirut, right, So
57:39
Speaker 2: the Americans were on one side, the Israelis were on another,
57:42
Speaker 2: and American ships were right off the shore. There was
57:46
Speaker 2: a plan of taking the Christians out on ships and
57:49
Speaker 2: getting them out of the country at some point and
57:52
Speaker 2: re refused. Alternatively, they brought in Bashidish male on a
57:57
Speaker 2: tank and an Israeli tank for president and see. And ultimately,
58:01
Speaker 2: with all of this power that the West had in Beirut,
58:07
Speaker 2: what accumulate. What it accumulated to was utter failure. And
58:10
Speaker 2: what it accumulated to was the Taif Agreement which was
58:14
Speaker 2: never signed in Riyod without UH, the one UH clause
58:21
Speaker 2: which says the right of the resistance to fight an
58:25
Speaker 2: occupyer by all means necessary at all times. Right, And
58:30
Speaker 2: that was a war in Riod during the tip of negotiations,
58:34
Speaker 2: and at the time UH there was an MP and
58:38
Speaker 2: he was he was Simny actually Uh and the Nabi
58:41
Speaker 2: who insisted on that clause being present at the time
58:46
Speaker 2: where the Americans were pushing on eliminating it. So this
58:50
Speaker 2: was the peak power of the US in the region,
58:55
Speaker 2: and the Taiph was The US even went to Syria
58:58
Speaker 2: and said, listen, you have to back the Taif because
59:00
Speaker 2: otherwise the situation was gonna expand in the region, but
59:05
Speaker 2: no one had the capacity to face it. So the
59:08
Speaker 2: Syrians agreed and they went towards the Talk of Agreement
59:12
Speaker 2: and they were the supervisors of the Talk Agreement in fact.
59:16
Speaker 2: So today we don't have Syria backing us, but what
59:20
Speaker 2: we do have is that we have unified access of
59:23
Speaker 2: resistance that has the capacity to impose on the ground
59:26
Speaker 2: what they want at the time when the Americans have
59:30
Speaker 2: failed to do so, and they will not allow the
59:32
Speaker 2: Americans to achieve diplomatically what they failed to achieve militarily.
59:36
Speaker 2: I don't know if that explains it.
59:37
Speaker 1: Mike, Yeah, thank you for that. I just we're just
59:41
Speaker 1: about at a time now. But I wanted to end
59:43
Speaker 1: by getting both your thoughts on the other Islamic countries
59:49
Speaker 1: in the region and want you know, clearly this is
59:52
Speaker 1: going to start up again. What is there, what is
59:55
Speaker 1: their position likely to be as as the war fighting,
1:00:00
Speaker 1: you know, becomes a regional problem again. Are they going
1:00:04
Speaker 1: to stick with the United States or are they going
1:00:06
Speaker 1: to shift their allegiance.
1:00:09
Speaker 2: We are just trying to sell to the Iranians in Lebanon,
1:00:14
Speaker 2: saying listen, you can I think this is what they're saying.
1:00:16
Speaker 2: I don't have a dark confirmation of that, but it
1:00:19
Speaker 2: seems like what they're saying is, listen, you can bomb
1:00:23
Speaker 2: the Americans, but leave us out of it, and please
1:00:25
Speaker 2: tell the Emenies to leave us out of it. In
1:00:28
Speaker 2: the case that this expanded, the u AE quit Pahan
1:00:32
Speaker 2: are directly following through with the Americans until until the
1:00:36
Speaker 2: last breath. Katar is also looking for a margin of
1:00:42
Speaker 2: operation between the Iranians and the Americans. I think these
1:00:47
Speaker 2: are the only two countries that are russianly looking at
1:00:53
Speaker 2: a certain stability after this war. Uh and otherwise Quite
1:01:00
Speaker 2: and Bahrein. They know their presence could not exist without
1:01:08
Speaker 2: the Americans, and so they're willing to go to the
1:01:10
Speaker 2: end with that. Riad has its own specificities. It can
1:01:15
Speaker 2: reach an agreement ultimately with the man and survive in
1:01:21
Speaker 2: some shape or form. Cutter is the same reaching an
1:01:24
Speaker 2: agreement with Iran and survive in some shape or form.
1:01:31
Speaker 2: The rest is really a non existent entity that became
1:01:34
Speaker 2: existent by US force of economy and military and quit
1:01:41
Speaker 2: returns to Iraq. They know that in the case that
1:01:45
Speaker 2: that the Americans fail, Quaitis know that very well that
1:01:50
Speaker 2: their only margin of survival is in a full agreement
1:01:54
Speaker 2: and integration in some shape or form with Iraq. So
1:01:58
Speaker 2: I don't think we're looking at a lot of things
1:02:03
Speaker 2: changed between the first confrontation and the other, except for
1:02:05
Speaker 2: real And.
1:02:07
Speaker 3: When you talk about Katar, I also connect Turkey to that,
1:02:12
Speaker 3: because the collaboration between Katar and Turkey is based around,
1:02:16
Speaker 3: of course the Muslim brotherhood that were to some degree
1:02:20
Speaker 3: weaponized also against Saria, both in the late seventies early
1:02:24
Speaker 3: eighties when hafazela Said was president and then of course
1:02:27
Speaker 3: again since two thousand and eleven. But I think Turkey
1:02:34
Speaker 3: knows full well that if the US and Israel, which
1:02:39
Speaker 3: I don't think they're going to, but if for example,
1:02:41
Speaker 3: they were to be able to defeat the resistance, then
1:02:46
Speaker 3: of course that means them moving forward with the Zionist
1:02:49
Speaker 3: expansion agenda, which at some point would also include perceiving
1:02:58
Speaker 3: Turkey as a threat, and that is already being spoken
1:03:01
Speaker 3: about in Israeli media that maybe Turkey is the next
1:03:07
Speaker 3: Iran and so on, and so therefore, I think while
1:03:11
Speaker 3: I don't trust Adouan at all, and Turkey under Duwan
1:03:16
Speaker 3: has a reputation of deceit and false rhetoric and so on,
1:03:22
Speaker 3: but I think ultimately, the longer that this war goes on,
1:03:26
Speaker 3: I think you'll see both Kata and Turkey fall into.
1:03:30
Speaker 4: Kind of.
1:03:32
Speaker 3: The scenario where that one, Turkey has not responded to
1:03:36
Speaker 3: the false flags that were carried out on their territory.
1:03:39
Speaker 3: They're not going to go to war with Iran, that's
1:03:42
Speaker 3: number one in my opinion. But eventually what you might
1:03:45
Speaker 3: see Turkey will go towards whoever is going to win
1:03:48
Speaker 3: the war and give them the benefits.
1:03:50
Speaker 4: Out of this rate.
1:03:52
Speaker 3: And so I think you might see some recalibration of
1:03:55
Speaker 3: Turkey's relationship where they were.
1:04:01
Speaker 4: Currently covertly.
1:04:04
Speaker 3: There is obviously a relationship between Iran and Turkey anyway,
1:04:07
Speaker 3: but I think it might become more overt.
1:04:10
Speaker 4: Then.
1:04:10
Speaker 3: Of course, I would hope at some point we're going
1:04:13
Speaker 3: to see you a rejection of Jolani and the al
1:04:17
Speaker 3: Kaido regime in Syria, because as Miriam said, they're going
1:04:20
Speaker 3: to be encircles at that point. So I think, you know,
1:04:24
Speaker 3: the gains for the resistance are huge in this war,
1:04:29
Speaker 3: and I think that's what you know, we tend to
1:04:32
Speaker 3: focus upon because in the West, the media is very
1:04:36
Speaker 3: focused upon the Trump rhetoric, upon you know, very much
1:04:40
Speaker 3: a Western centric view of what's happening. But here in
1:04:43
Speaker 3: the region, when you take a step back from the
1:04:47
Speaker 3: daily sacrifice of the members of the resistance and the
1:04:50
Speaker 3: civilians that support their resistance, which is horrific, it really
1:04:55
Speaker 3: is heartbreaking. But when you get the bigger picture than
1:05:02
Speaker 3: the vision of victory is huge.
1:05:05
Speaker 4: Actually.
1:05:05
Speaker 1: Okay, well, that seems like a good place to leave
1:05:07
Speaker 1: it for today. Thank you very much, Miriam and Vanessa.
1:05:11
Speaker 1: Miriam great to have you on the program, and we
1:05:15
Speaker 1: will hopefully see you both back on this program very
1:05:18
Speaker 1: very soon. Thank you.
1:05:20
Speaker 4: Thanks Mike.
1:05:21
Speaker 2: Thank you Mike. Have a good one.