Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Free Agency w/guest Bill Barnwell

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NFL Free Agency w/guest Bill Barnwell · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:09
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast from the Action Network.
0:13
Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman on today's podcast, NFL Free Agency,
0:19
Speaker 1: Not the coronavirus. Not the coronavirus is impact on sports betting?
0:24
Speaker 1: My guest is already giggling, just straight free agency grading
0:28
Speaker 1: the signings. Which signing will lead the great bets? Barnewell,
0:31
Speaker 1: you can't laugh yet. Which signings will lead to great performances,
0:34
Speaker 1: which will lead to great player props? Which sign has
0:37
Speaker 1: got a lot of public not great at all? Joined
0:39
Speaker 1: me to break it all down, as if I've given
0:41
Speaker 1: it away. The King of Chart Beats ESPN dot COM's
0:45
Speaker 1: lead football analyst, a man who has studied more film
0:47
Speaker 1: than Roger Ebert. Mr Bill Barnwell, how you doing, buddy? Hi?
0:52
Speaker 1: Can I get King of Chart Beat on my resume
0:54
Speaker 1: or business card? If that would be very lucrative for me,
0:56
Speaker 1: if I were actually the King of chart Beating. It's
0:59
Speaker 1: a very inside oak for anyone who follows media and
1:01
Speaker 1: knows what sharpeat is Charpie. It is a analytics platform
1:05
Speaker 1: that ESPN uses in a lot of sort of large
1:08
Speaker 1: media websites use to understand real time traffic to your
1:13
Speaker 1: site and Whenever a story of Barne Walls would get posted,
1:16
Speaker 1: usually Monday mornings or Monday afternoons on ESPN dot com,
1:20
Speaker 1: Charpie would explode because the entire world is reading Bill
1:24
Speaker 1: Barnwell's story. So if you got that, you could have
1:27
Speaker 1: a nameplate. I know you you live with your girlfriend.
1:30
Speaker 1: Maybe she can have it made for you. That could
1:31
Speaker 1: be something exciting. I could be gift. Why not a
1:34
Speaker 1: clown at some point, I'm not going outside for a while.
1:37
Speaker 1: You're quarantined. You can get anything you want, just haven't
1:40
Speaker 1: made it home. I'll get my Trudy printer right on it. No,
1:43
Speaker 1: I wish I had one. Maybe you could get it
1:45
Speaker 1: just to make yourself a crown exactly. See now we're thinking,
1:49
Speaker 1: explain to people why you're quarantining yourself. Okay. So I
1:53
Speaker 1: was originally supposed to go to Paris last week from
1:56
Speaker 1: New York. Our dog sitter is in New Jersey because
1:59
Speaker 1: we used them and when we both live in New
2:01
Speaker 1: York and love the dog sitter, so we drive to
2:03
Speaker 1: New York drop off the dog and originally going to Paris.
2:06
Speaker 1: That got canceled because Paris was not yet at the
2:09
Speaker 1: point of being shut down. But it was on the way,
2:12
Speaker 1: so we changed our trip to go to Austin, Texas,
2:14
Speaker 1: because we said, oh, you know, we both love Austin
2:16
Speaker 1: south by south lest got canceled. It's a real bummer,
2:18
Speaker 1: you know, and hurt the economy there. So let's go
2:21
Speaker 1: support you know, the businesses in Austin and don't see
2:23
Speaker 1: some friends in Austin. That was our second plan. And
2:25
Speaker 1: then we had a couple of days in New York
2:27
Speaker 1: before dripped Austin, and over those couple of days it
2:30
Speaker 1: became quite clear and no, we're not going to be
2:32
Speaker 1: traveling too often or anywhere. We're going to be going
2:34
Speaker 1: straight home. So we you know, rented a car, picked
2:37
Speaker 1: up our dog, drove back to Washington where I live,
2:40
Speaker 1: and that was that. But that was less than fourteen
2:42
Speaker 1: days ago, and we were in New York. So we
2:44
Speaker 1: are currently self quarantining where I am. Honestly, it's not
2:48
Speaker 1: that much different this week. I would be sitting here
2:50
Speaker 1: grading things anyway, Like I am one of the least
2:53
Speaker 1: affected people by this quarantine and by the isolation period
2:58
Speaker 1: here in America, because I would just be sitting on
2:59
Speaker 1: my couch eating things typically anyway, I don't mind social distancing.
3:03
Speaker 1: Honest to god, it really is like one of those
3:06
Speaker 1: things where seth Wickersham front of both of ours. He
3:09
Speaker 1: just came over to my house and we had a
3:11
Speaker 1: catch up. He stood in the driveway and I stood
3:13
Speaker 1: twenty ft away on my front steps, and I didn't
3:16
Speaker 1: mind it at all. It's the first person I've honestly
3:18
Speaker 1: seen in about ten days outside of my It's great,
3:24
Speaker 1: it's not It's really not that bad. I mean, there's
3:25
Speaker 1: obviously you know, the other thirstoff was awful. But the
3:28
Speaker 1: thing we can do to help is remarkably easy in
3:31
Speaker 1: terms of just staying put and not seeing other people.
3:33
Speaker 1: I can just text people. I've had some phone calls.
3:35
Speaker 1: It's fantastic. All right, Bill, your social quarantine is going
3:39
Speaker 1: to be our game because the more you're grading, the
3:41
Speaker 1: more content you put out. Let's get to the main thing.
3:48
Speaker 1: The main thing. I went through your entire file of
3:53
Speaker 1: grading offseason moves, the entire file going back to February.
3:59
Speaker 1: It is massive, It is comprehensive, and I have no
4:01
Speaker 1: doubt that everybody has looked at it. But if they haven't,
4:04
Speaker 1: they have to because it is full of gems like this.
4:06
Speaker 1: I made a note of this because I thought it
4:08
Speaker 1: was so funny giving the Jets a D minus for
4:11
Speaker 1: signing George Fant to a thirty year, thirty million dollar deal.
4:15
Speaker 1: This was your life. The Jets desperately need offensive linemen
4:20
Speaker 1: to try to protect Sam Donald, but I'm not entirely
4:24
Speaker 1: sure Fant is one m D minus George Fant, you know.
4:32
Speaker 1: And it's funny because I have been really positive mostly
4:34
Speaker 1: about the Jets move this offseason. It's like, the one
4:37
Speaker 1: really negative criticism I've had of the Jets is that
4:39
Speaker 1: Fan deal. Um, this is the guy who's a basketball player.
4:42
Speaker 1: George Fan is a guy who, you know what, a
4:45
Speaker 1: spot starter for the Seahawks started one year at left tackle.
4:47
Speaker 1: Him was pretty widely criticized, almost sudden that way of all, Well,
4:51
Speaker 1: he doesn't even belong out there because he's a basketball
4:53
Speaker 1: player being pushed to play left tackle for poor Russell Wilson.
4:56
Speaker 1: Then he stat for pretty much three years outside if
4:58
Speaker 1: a few spots starts here and there, toroth a c
5:00
Speaker 1: L and it's now getting paid by the Jets, probably
5:03
Speaker 1: to be Sam Donald starting left tackle unless they draft
5:06
Speaker 1: a guy to play left tackle, which is you know,
5:08
Speaker 1: if you're trying to evaluate Sam Donald if you want to,
5:11
Speaker 1: you know, believe in Sam Donald, if you want to
5:13
Speaker 1: play Sam Donald in fantasy football or daily fantasy football.
5:16
Speaker 1: Having a theoretical left tackle, maybe a a arbitrary left tackle.
5:22
Speaker 1: It seems very bad if you are counting on Sam
5:25
Speaker 1: Donald in any way. I counted two A grades, one
5:28
Speaker 1: A and one A minus. Can you tell me who
5:31
Speaker 1: got the two ways that I'm talking about? I can
5:34
Speaker 1: Philip Rivers got an A and Brian Pool of the
5:37
Speaker 1: Jet Scott in A. No, No, that's not what I saw.
5:41
Speaker 1: Do you see Philip Rivers got a B plus, Tom
5:43
Speaker 1: Brady got an A. Drew Brees got an A minus.
5:47
Speaker 1: Oh Drew Brees? Yes, excuse me, I'm sorry. I know
5:49
Speaker 1: your material better than you. Barnewell, she do. Let's not
5:52
Speaker 1: out of the question effort. In ninety nine of these
5:54
Speaker 1: so far, they tend to blur together at this point.
5:57
Speaker 1: I'm a tough grader, and I think that's born out
5:59
Speaker 1: by when you get the history of NFL free agency,
6:03
Speaker 1: it's pretty bad. I mean, think about again, let's go
6:05
Speaker 1: with the Jets. How many people were lauding the Jets
6:08
Speaker 1: for signing Levy on Bell C. J. Mosley Jamison Crowder
6:12
Speaker 1: year before, it was Trueman Johnson. They almost signed Anthony Barr.
6:15
Speaker 1: How many of those moves panned out for the Jets? Zero?
6:18
Speaker 1: That's not good, And that's a lot of those are
6:20
Speaker 1: the best guys. If those are the best players, imagine
6:22
Speaker 1: what the kind of okay players are doing. So, you know,
6:26
Speaker 1: could someone give five or six more A grades? Yeah, sure,
6:29
Speaker 1: I wouldn't be you know, that big of a difference
6:30
Speaker 1: between a B plus or B and A or an
6:33
Speaker 1: A minus. But I tend to think these things don't
6:35
Speaker 1: really work out. It's not the best way to build
6:37
Speaker 1: a football team. So I'm gonna be kind of harsh.
6:40
Speaker 1: I think a C plus for me is sort of
6:42
Speaker 1: an average grade, and I think some people take that
6:44
Speaker 1: as a negative. So why did you give Brady? I mean,
6:48
Speaker 1: start with the off field stuff, right, you know, Brady
6:50
Speaker 1: in the selfias and tickets. They're gonna sell a billion
6:52
Speaker 1: Brady jerseys, both the current jersey, the cream stickle jersey,
6:57
Speaker 1: whatever jersey Tom Brady is wearing. They're gonna sell a million. Know. Um,
7:00
Speaker 1: They're gonna sort of solidify that franchise in Florida for
7:03
Speaker 1: years to come. Even if Brady just plays. Okay, if
7:04
Speaker 1: he plays great, that's gonna story altogether. But I mean,
7:08
Speaker 1: you get to sign a to me, a viable, above
7:11
Speaker 1: average starting quarterback, even given his flip last year, for cash.
7:14
Speaker 1: You don't have to trade a draft pick, where you
7:16
Speaker 1: don't have to do up a first round pick. You
7:17
Speaker 1: don't have to do anything besides just pay money, which honestly,
7:21
Speaker 1: the Tom Brady contract is not that onerous. You're guaranteeing
7:24
Speaker 1: two years, which you know could tye aren't poorly I suppose,
7:27
Speaker 1: But for a guy who, again I think with those weapons,
7:31
Speaker 1: with maybe one more additional on the offensive line, will
7:34
Speaker 1: have one of the best cores of talent around him
7:36
Speaker 1: in football, I think this is just an easy signing.
7:39
Speaker 1: I think you do this even if it fails, even
7:41
Speaker 1: given the possibility of fails. I think you make this
7:43
Speaker 1: move ten out of ten times. And there's not a
7:46
Speaker 1: lot of moves you can say that about in this
7:47
Speaker 1: free eging period. It's interesting you described you describe Brady
7:51
Speaker 1: as a viable quarterback, which is obviously not the perception.
7:55
Speaker 1: Even if even if everyone realizes he's not going to
7:59
Speaker 1: be the same guy who was ten twelve years ago,
8:02
Speaker 1: what when you see Brady right now, What do you see?
8:05
Speaker 1: I see a guy who has the arm strength, has
8:09
Speaker 1: not lost a ton of arms fact that was never
8:10
Speaker 1: really like the core of his game. But a guy
8:12
Speaker 1: who can still make throws, a guy who still has
8:14
Speaker 1: the instincts, the guy who is physically capable of holding up,
8:18
Speaker 1: who's not getting injured or banged up or you know,
8:20
Speaker 1: not losing a bunch of his arm strength during the season,
8:23
Speaker 1: which we see with a lot of older quarterbacks who
8:25
Speaker 1: do kind of lose it in their final couple of
8:27
Speaker 1: years of being paid, and Manning being a good recent
8:29
Speaker 1: example Brett Farve as well, where Brett Farve never got
8:31
Speaker 1: hurt and then suddenly in his final year did get injured. Um,
8:35
Speaker 1: we're seeing Brady stay healthy. It's such a good sign.
8:37
Speaker 1: And I think we saw a guy last year who
8:39
Speaker 1: had for most of the year below average offensive tackles,
8:42
Speaker 1: who had the worst tight end situation in football, and
8:44
Speaker 1: who had one wide receiver who was healthy, who he
8:47
Speaker 1: trusted and doing dentlemen for most of the year. And
8:50
Speaker 1: by the end of the season, Edelman was injured, Hamedsonnu
8:52
Speaker 1: was injured. There was still playing, but they were far
8:54
Speaker 1: less than uh and kill Harry was still a rookie.
8:58
Speaker 1: There were so many times last year I think Greg
9:00
Speaker 1: Rosenbaum was the one who pointed this out, where Brady
9:02
Speaker 1: would make throws and it would be to nobody in particular,
9:05
Speaker 1: and he would kind of point at the thought afterwards,
9:07
Speaker 1: you know, saying, hey, you're supposed to be there. And
9:09
Speaker 1: at the end of the day, I trust Tom Brady
9:11
Speaker 1: in those situations over his receivers in terms of his
9:13
Speaker 1: knowledge of that offense. So I see a guy who
9:15
Speaker 1: wants to account for those things. Is still playing at
9:17
Speaker 1: a pretty high level. He's not the guy he was
9:19
Speaker 1: three years ago, but I think he's still a guy
9:22
Speaker 1: you can win a Super Bowl. So Bruce arians is
9:25
Speaker 1: the wild card here for me in this because he
9:28
Speaker 1: has so clearly been a bit of a quarterback whisper right,
9:31
Speaker 1: and what he did in Indianapolis that one year when
9:34
Speaker 1: he took over for Chuck Bagano as the coach, and
9:37
Speaker 1: what he did in Arizona to make that team really
9:40
Speaker 1: relevant and competitive. What are you What have you seen
9:43
Speaker 1: with the quarterbacks he coaches that turns them into something special?
9:47
Speaker 1: That Brady could be even better based on his age
9:50
Speaker 1: and sort of his physical skills right now. I think
9:53
Speaker 1: he creates a lot of big plays for his quarterbacks.
9:55
Speaker 1: I think he puts them in situations where they have
9:58
Speaker 1: you know, sort of logic progressions, which is not always
10:01
Speaker 1: the case for some quarterbacks. I don't think Josh mc
10:03
Speaker 1: daniels is one of those guys. I think he creates
10:05
Speaker 1: opportunities for big plays with his scheme. Now, the question
10:09
Speaker 1: that I think is most interesting here is, you know
10:11
Speaker 1: Tom Brady when you look through history, the history of
10:13
Speaker 1: Tom Brady is someone who very rarely throws it down
10:16
Speaker 1: the field. He does occasionally, but it's not the core
10:18
Speaker 1: of his game. He wants to get the ball out quickly,
10:20
Speaker 1: let me get the boat accurately, and he wants to
10:22
Speaker 1: move the chain. Bruce Arians just about every single year
10:25
Speaker 1: has been either the number one, number two, or number
10:28
Speaker 1: three coach in the league in terms of how frequently
10:31
Speaker 1: his quarterbacks throw down field. They are you know, it's
10:34
Speaker 1: the no risk at no biscuit offense. That is the saying.
10:36
Speaker 1: That is what they do on offense. They want to
10:38
Speaker 1: get the blood down field for big plays. Now, that
10:42
Speaker 1: sort of collision is going to be interesting because I
10:44
Speaker 1: think Brady has the physical ability to make those throws,
10:47
Speaker 1: but it's not his first choice. He does not want
10:49
Speaker 1: to hang out in the pocket for three or four
10:51
Speaker 1: seconds and take a hit to deliver a big play.
10:53
Speaker 1: So when we get to week one and week two,
10:56
Speaker 1: week three of that offense, is it going to be
10:58
Speaker 1: the Tom Brady Patriots offense where it's all quick game,
11:00
Speaker 1: getting the ball out, you know, immediately, to make easy
11:03
Speaker 1: completions and keep Tom Brady healthy. Or is it going
11:05
Speaker 1: to be the Bruce Arians offensive you know, uh seven
11:09
Speaker 1: step drop and uh you know, coming out of the
11:10
Speaker 1: shotgun and throwing the ball twenty yards downfield once every series.
11:14
Speaker 1: I don't know if one or the other is gonna win.
11:17
Speaker 1: My suspicion is that it's going to be both of
11:19
Speaker 1: those offenses kind of coming together. But if that offense
11:23
Speaker 1: does struggle, I have to think Tom Brady's side is
11:26
Speaker 1: going to win. I don't know what you think. Well,
11:29
Speaker 1: I think it has to because you coach the talent
11:31
Speaker 1: that you have, and you build the system around the
11:33
Speaker 1: talent you have. And well, Mike Evans is amazing, and
11:36
Speaker 1: Chris Godwin came on like gamebusters, especially when Evans was hurt.
11:40
Speaker 1: They can do anything, and Mike Evans certainly is a
11:42
Speaker 1: down the field player. He is a guy you want
11:44
Speaker 1: to get the ball too deep Brady, Like you said,
11:47
Speaker 1: he can still throw the ball if he has to
11:48
Speaker 1: throw up forty yards and can just throw it over
11:50
Speaker 1: the outside shoulder to where Mike Evans has an into space.
11:54
Speaker 1: He'll still be able to do that. Um. But at
11:56
Speaker 1: the end of the day, when they need to be successful,
11:59
Speaker 1: when they need that third down conversion, it's gonna be
12:02
Speaker 1: Brady finding a scene in the middle of the field,
12:05
Speaker 1: whether whether it's whether it's like to the outside hash
12:08
Speaker 1: or across the middle, just because that's what he's great at,
12:11
Speaker 1: that's what he knows, and he's got more talent than
12:12
Speaker 1: he maybe has ever had at the white opposition with
12:15
Speaker 1: those two guys. M Yeah, And I wouldn't forget about
12:20
Speaker 1: the tight end situation again. Brady had, you know, the
12:23
Speaker 1: worst tight end situation in the league last year bar
12:25
Speaker 1: none to me. And now he gets O. J. Howard
12:27
Speaker 1: and Cameron Braid and those guys are not superstars. And okay,
12:30
Speaker 1: Howard spent last year pretty much building a multi family
12:35
Speaker 1: condominium inside Bruce Arians doghouse. But I kinda figure Tom
12:39
Speaker 1: Brady is going to make those tight ends better, and
12:41
Speaker 1: I think he's going to use them more frequently than
12:43
Speaker 1: Jamis Winston's did. So I can see those guys being
12:46
Speaker 1: pretty underrated right now, given that you know that's gonna
12:49
Speaker 1: be a place Tom Brady looks, I think, far more
12:51
Speaker 1: frequently than Jamis Winston looked outside of the red zone
12:53
Speaker 1: in the year's past. Alright. So the other A that
12:57
Speaker 1: you gave was also in the NFC Cell and the
13:00
Speaker 1: NFC South, which to my mind, will never have any
13:04
Speaker 1: teams that anybody cares about because no one recognizes those logos.
13:08
Speaker 1: And as long as you have a Panther's logo and
13:10
Speaker 1: a Buck's logo like as half of the division, it's
13:14
Speaker 1: never gonna matter. But now they matter just because of
13:17
Speaker 1: their quarterbacks. And the other A that you gave a
13:19
Speaker 1: minus Drew Brees resigning with the Saints. You basically gave
13:23
Speaker 1: the only A grades to the signings of two forty
13:26
Speaker 1: plus quarterbacks. What's your theory there? I think if you
13:28
Speaker 1: look deeper into the creating file, you'll see that a
13:31
Speaker 1: certain Jets cornerback is given to the minus. But that
13:33
Speaker 1: will leave that aside for another day. What I'll talk
13:36
Speaker 1: about Drew Brees is I just think, you know, again
13:38
Speaker 1: sort of similar, you're adding a superstar quarterback at just
13:41
Speaker 1: the cost of some cap space. You're not paying a
13:44
Speaker 1: lot of money. You're not paying him a premium top
13:46
Speaker 1: of the market deal. You are not committing on a
13:49
Speaker 1: long term contract. It's really only a one year deal.
13:51
Speaker 1: That's just easy, you know. I think it's to move
13:53
Speaker 1: that the Saints have to make every single time. And
13:54
Speaker 1: if it's that sort of obvious of the move, I
13:57
Speaker 1: think that earners an a for me. And I think,
13:59
Speaker 1: you know, on my Brady, Drew Brees didn't really seem
14:02
Speaker 1: the slip up and it slip. Last year he had
14:03
Speaker 1: that uh hand injury that cost him I think six games,
14:07
Speaker 1: but because I think five and a half games. But
14:09
Speaker 1: you know, Drew Brees looked great. Otherwise they lost the playoffs.
14:12
Speaker 1: I don't think that was necessarily Drew Brees as fault.
14:14
Speaker 1: So I think he's positioned, unless he has a Brady
14:17
Speaker 1: s drop off that we can't really anticipate, he's positioned
14:19
Speaker 1: to kind of play at a high level. Again, all right,
14:22
Speaker 1: for the next segment, we're going to bring in Action
14:25
Speaker 1: Network football analysts and your brother in analytics genius Chris
14:30
Speaker 1: Rayvon and he is in love with Kyler Murray. He's
14:33
Speaker 1: in love with the Kyler Murray. Uh. Now to DeAndre Hopkins,
14:37
Speaker 1: you gave one grade of F in your reviews so
14:41
Speaker 1: far for every move that happened since February. Do you
14:44
Speaker 1: know what the F is? The F is the Texan
14:47
Speaker 1: side of the DeAndre Hopkins grade, which is so bad
14:50
Speaker 1: that there were other contracts I thought about giving an
14:52
Speaker 1: F like I wanted to give the Jimmy Graham Bears
14:54
Speaker 1: contract and F. But in comparison, the Jimmy Graham deal,
14:57
Speaker 1: even though it's awful, is so much better. And trading
15:00
Speaker 1: DeAndre Hopkins in that trade that I can't keep anything
15:03
Speaker 1: else on that. There's just no way to make it fair.
15:05
Speaker 1: It's actually astonishing and no one can figure it out.
15:08
Speaker 1: Here's what I want to know, though, Because the Texans
15:11
Speaker 1: have had so much talent like J. J. Watt, Deshaun Watson,
15:15
Speaker 1: DeAndre Hopkins, like these are best in class players, right,
15:19
Speaker 1: what is Bill O'Brien so bad at? Everybody hates Bill O'Brien,
15:23
Speaker 1: But when you look at everything, what do you think
15:25
Speaker 1: he is so bad at it? That makes this an
15:27
Speaker 1: impossible team. That makes it impossible for this team to
15:31
Speaker 1: move forward every year because I just think he has
15:34
Speaker 1: no sense of understanding what the market is. It's one
15:37
Speaker 1: thing to not want to resign Jadavian Clowney. I think
15:41
Speaker 1: they probably should have, but if you don't want to,
15:43
Speaker 1: that's your prerogative. I think you can justify not giving
15:45
Speaker 1: him a contract. That's not the issue. The issue is
15:48
Speaker 1: when you see players in his class of Frank Clark
15:50
Speaker 1: or a Defour getting a first time pick a second
15:52
Speaker 1: round pick because they're traded at a point when it
15:54
Speaker 1: makes sense to make those trades. It's supposed to holding
15:57
Speaker 1: on to a player until the last possible second, hoping
16:00
Speaker 1: he's going to, you know, give in, and then trading
16:02
Speaker 1: him for a third round pick and two backup linebackers
16:04
Speaker 1: when he doesn't. With the Hopkins trade, it's not necessarily
16:07
Speaker 1: trading DeAndre Hopkins, I think it's a bad idea, but
16:09
Speaker 1: trading him for a second round pick and a running
16:12
Speaker 1: back whose contract is underwater in David Johnson, who probably
16:16
Speaker 1: detection should have got, you know, received a fourth round
16:18
Speaker 1: pick just to get it done. His contract off the
16:21
Speaker 1: Cardinals books to not understand the the value of the
16:24
Speaker 1: players who are trading. I think is unforgivable because it's
16:28
Speaker 1: just this is a team that if you had kept
16:30
Speaker 1: that core together, I think they are a championship caliber
16:34
Speaker 1: core of of talent. Now they have to all stay healthy.
16:37
Speaker 1: Doesn't necessarily work out. But you have this coach who
16:41
Speaker 1: sort of you know, through different means grass power of
16:44
Speaker 1: the general manager position, and who is running a team
16:49
Speaker 1: worse than probably the worst coach in your fantasy football league.
16:53
Speaker 1: I mean, making trade that that would be rejected. Like
16:56
Speaker 1: I think I talked about this with what Scott been
16:58
Speaker 1: held before we've taped the Sports Center. If you had
17:00
Speaker 1: a choice between that like Bill O'Brien and your fantasy league,
17:03
Speaker 1: or the guy who forgets that his lineups three times
17:06
Speaker 1: this season, you would choose the guy who forgets instead
17:08
Speaker 1: of lab because at least he's not ruining other teams
17:11
Speaker 1: by making crazy trades like it is. It's just you
17:13
Speaker 1: have to have some level of credibility and some level
17:17
Speaker 1: of authority, and when every other person who is a
17:21
Speaker 1: fan of your team or who looks at your team
17:23
Speaker 1: is sitting here saying they can't understand the trade you're making,
17:26
Speaker 1: I think it really kind of asserts that the idea
17:29
Speaker 1: that you're football man and your experience early cuts at
17:32
Speaker 1: the core of just how little Bill O'Brien knows what
17:35
Speaker 1: he's doing when it comes to the GM job. As
17:37
Speaker 1: a fan, it kind of bums me out because I
17:39
Speaker 1: look at Deshaun Watson, I look at J. J. Watt,
17:42
Speaker 1: and those are guys who, to me become really sympathetic
17:46
Speaker 1: figures because their crimes are going to be lost to BA.
17:50
Speaker 1: I think J. J. Watts prime is already lost, but
17:53
Speaker 1: their primes have been lost to bad coaching and talent mismanagement.
17:57
Speaker 1: And as a fan, it is incredibly frustrating. I want
17:59
Speaker 1: to hn Watson too. Wins so bad and I think,
18:02
Speaker 1: when you look at this, how much does this hurt
18:05
Speaker 1: his development? Oh? I mean it's it's, you know, astronomical,
18:08
Speaker 1: because not only is it trading DeAndre Hopkins and replacing
18:11
Speaker 1: him with a terrible Randall Cobb contract, it's also you know,
18:14
Speaker 1: they've traded in multiple first round picks away. He's not
18:16
Speaker 1: gonna get the healthy needs in the drafting years to come.
18:19
Speaker 1: But the whole infrastructure is broken. I mean, it's like
18:22
Speaker 1: trying to win a car race on a road that
18:24
Speaker 1: has potholes every ten feet that are gonna swallow your car.
18:27
Speaker 1: I mean, you can maybe get away with it, but
18:28
Speaker 1: you much rather have a smooth you know, a smooth
18:31
Speaker 1: patent to drive on. And I don't trust Bill O'Brien
18:34
Speaker 1: to to smooth over those holes or fill those holes
18:36
Speaker 1: with anything besides trading future draft picks away. All right,
18:39
Speaker 1: we're gonna come back for another segment and a second,
18:41
Speaker 1: but first, my favorite long islander a man who runs
18:45
Speaker 1: once ran for mayor of his hometown, but blew off
18:47
Speaker 1: the debate to go to Lallapaloos, a true story. Michael
18:51
Speaker 1: Lieboff is coming at us with another charming gambling story.
19:04
Speaker 1: If you've been on tennis, you know how frustrating it
19:06
Speaker 1: can be when a player retires from a match, meaning
19:09
Speaker 1: he's hurt and needs to quit the match in the
19:11
Speaker 1: middle of it. Some books will grade retirements as losses
19:15
Speaker 1: for the injured players, some will grade them as pushes,
19:17
Speaker 1: and some it depends on if a full set has
19:20
Speaker 1: been completed. The rules are all over the place. For
19:22
Speaker 1: my particular book that I was betting on back in
19:24
Speaker 1: the two thousand eighteen US Open, the rule was if
19:27
Speaker 1: a player retires no matter how close it was the
19:30
Speaker 1: end of the match, the bet would be graded as
19:32
Speaker 1: a push. Sometimes that would be good and sometimes that
19:34
Speaker 1: would be bad. I swear that I've been bit by
19:37
Speaker 1: that rule more often than I've been aided. Anyways, we
19:40
Speaker 1: go to the two eighteen US Open and I have
19:43
Speaker 1: a bet on Paolo Lorenzi versus Kyle edmund Lorenzi was
19:47
Speaker 1: about seven and a half to one, and I would
19:49
Speaker 1: be in attendance for this match. If you've ever been
19:52
Speaker 1: to the US Open, you know this, but if you haven't,
19:54
Speaker 1: you should check it out. It's an amazing place to
19:56
Speaker 1: be a better or be a fan if you love tennis,
19:59
Speaker 1: especially in the first ball rounds, because the way the
20:01
Speaker 1: tournament is set up, there all these little side courts
20:03
Speaker 1: and you can get so close to the action. So
20:06
Speaker 1: we go to find the side court for Lorenzi versus Edmunds.
20:10
Speaker 1: By the time we get there, Lorenzi is down a set,
20:12
Speaker 1: but he looks like he's gonna win the second set,
20:15
Speaker 1: which he does, and I'm pumped. I'm in this little
20:19
Speaker 1: corner with my buddy and we're cheering for Lorenzi big time,
20:22
Speaker 1: and it is bloody hot out there. The sun is
20:25
Speaker 1: beating out on you. There's nowhere to really escape the heat.
20:28
Speaker 1: That's when I started to notice, oh Man, and Edmunds
20:31
Speaker 1: looks like he's struggling a bit. Lorenzi starts wiping him,
20:34
Speaker 1: just beating him handily. He goes up two sets to one,
20:38
Speaker 1: and he's limping everywhere. And at that point I realized
20:41
Speaker 1: I need to start rooting against Lorenzi because Edmund looks
20:44
Speaker 1: like he's going to retire, and if that happens, my
20:47
Speaker 1: seven and a half to one surefire winner just goes
20:49
Speaker 1: up in flames. So with Edmund kind of hobbling around
20:52
Speaker 1: the court, I took it upon myself to really motivate
20:56
Speaker 1: him to stay in this match. So me and my
20:59
Speaker 1: friend we start cheering hard for Edmund. We're telling him
21:02
Speaker 1: to dig deep and to not give up, and basically
21:04
Speaker 1: giving him a sp speech about why he should stay
21:08
Speaker 1: in the machine. It's bad to give up, even as
21:10
Speaker 1: hard hurt as he is. The fans are here to
21:12
Speaker 1: see you, Kyle, don't give up. And he hung in there.
21:16
Speaker 1: Not only did he lose with the class of a
21:18
Speaker 1: British warrior, but he want me some good scratch and
21:21
Speaker 1: because of his heart and his grit. Kyle Edmond and me,
21:24
Speaker 1: you know we're good for life like that guy could
21:27
Speaker 1: do no wrong. In my book, He's a true warrior
21:29
Speaker 1: and a true sportsman. Thank you, Kyle. Okay, we're back.
21:35
Speaker 1: It's time for the next thing. The next thing for
21:41
Speaker 1: this we are going gambling heavy and I want to
21:43
Speaker 1: bring in Action Network senior football analyst Chris Raybon to
21:48
Speaker 1: join me and Bill Raybon. Bill gave the Tom Brady
21:52
Speaker 1: signing and A. He gave it an A. It's one
21:54
Speaker 1: of two ways he gave out. The odds for the
21:57
Speaker 1: Bucks to win the Super Bowl went from fifty to one,
21:59
Speaker 1: which only five to one. Good bet or bad bet.
22:03
Speaker 1: First of all, thanks for having me, guys. I enjoyed
22:05
Speaker 1: UH being a fly on the wall. To the earlier conversation,
22:09
Speaker 1: I would say that it's a solid bet for the
22:11
Speaker 1: last since they started recording d v o A, you
22:14
Speaker 1: can look at the year end d v o A
22:16
Speaker 1: results and essentially a wominate all the teams that don't
22:20
Speaker 1: really have a shot at winning the Super Bowl just
22:22
Speaker 1: by looking at UH. Their overall ranking, it's usually thirteen
22:26
Speaker 1: or higher over the teams, and then they've they've had
22:30
Speaker 1: to have that we stay top eight finished in one
22:32
Speaker 1: of the three phases, and interestingly enough, the Bucks just
22:37
Speaker 1: miss out on that cut off for for thirteen, so
22:39
Speaker 1: they're right at fourteen and they just you know, they
22:43
Speaker 1: just sneak in um with their with the you know,
22:46
Speaker 1: in one of the phases. So it's tough. It's it's
22:49
Speaker 1: it's not it's not something where I would say, don't
22:52
Speaker 1: bet on them, and I could definitely see uh, you know,
22:55
Speaker 1: Tom Brady weeding this team to the top of the NFC.
22:58
Speaker 1: I think a better bet would be for were the
23:00
Speaker 1: conference because I think the a f C is a
23:04
Speaker 1: to me anyway, it just looks like a lot stronger
23:06
Speaker 1: of a conference at the top with the Kansas City
23:08
Speaker 1: Chiefs the Baltimore Ravens, So I would bet on them
23:11
Speaker 1: to win the NFC rather than going all the way.
23:15
Speaker 1: Thoughts on that, Yeah, I think that's fair. I mean, obviously,
23:18
Speaker 1: I think the biggest concern for the Bucks is not necessarily, uh,
23:22
Speaker 1: their level of talent, but I think it's the Saints
23:25
Speaker 1: being positioned in the same division. If it's just a
23:28
Speaker 1: dominant team, I think that might take a step backwards.
23:31
Speaker 1: Us You're a little bit but still a team that
23:32
Speaker 1: you would expect to make the playoffs even if Drew
23:35
Speaker 1: Brees gets hurt for a chunk of the season, because
23:37
Speaker 1: that's what happened last year. Um, maybe that's a little
23:40
Speaker 1: too short sighted, but the Bucks defense is incredibly underrated.
23:43
Speaker 1: To Chris's point, they were fifth in defensive dvo A
23:46
Speaker 1: last year, so when you see they're raw numbers, they
23:48
Speaker 1: look awful. By the raw numbers, it was because James
23:50
Speaker 1: Winston through a ton of pick sixes and put them
23:53
Speaker 1: in a ton of bad situations with turnovers. So this
23:56
Speaker 1: is already a very legit defense. It was really the
23:58
Speaker 1: offense and the specialty teams that held the Bucks back
24:01
Speaker 1: last year. So you would figure an improvement from the
24:04
Speaker 1: offensive break us and have to be necessarily the two
24:06
Speaker 1: thousand seven Patriots. But I think there are a playoff
24:09
Speaker 1: team at the very least to me, so, um, you know,
24:12
Speaker 1: if you can get it would probably what twelve to
24:14
Speaker 1: one or so for them to win the NFC. Uh,
24:16
Speaker 1: that's hardly out of the question to me. By the way,
24:19
Speaker 1: the total on raybun King Geek mentioning d v o
24:25
Speaker 1: A was about point was about point five seconds. Somehow,
24:30
Speaker 1: somehow we even managed to go under in that particular bet. Bill.
24:35
Speaker 1: Here's what I love about getting you guys together. You
24:37
Speaker 1: lived in Vegas for a year, you moved there. I
24:39
Speaker 1: remember when you moved there when Grantland started, because it
24:41
Speaker 1: was the same year I took over as eder in
24:43
Speaker 1: chief of the magazine in two thousand eleven. How much
24:46
Speaker 1: did you know about betting then? And just like summarize
24:49
Speaker 1: your experiences trying to live in Vegas. You are in
24:52
Speaker 1: the leading edge of this, right and so trying to
24:54
Speaker 1: live in Vegas incorporating analytics, trying to think about betting
24:57
Speaker 1: on football. What was that experience? Like, I mean, I
25:01
Speaker 1: knew nothing, So that was very helpful. I should have
25:03
Speaker 1: probably learned a little bit more before I actually worked
25:06
Speaker 1: my way out there, but you know, just as the
25:08
Speaker 1: season went on, just figuring out, you know, where there
25:11
Speaker 1: might be some some margins for value. I think at
25:13
Speaker 1: the time the you know, I was looking at the
25:16
Speaker 1: uh the teaser value for for you know, moving lines
25:20
Speaker 1: over the two key numbers of three and seven. And
25:22
Speaker 1: before I moved there, I had no idea that that
25:24
Speaker 1: made any sense, that was valuable. But by the time
25:27
Speaker 1: I left, and not only did I know you know
25:29
Speaker 1: where to or how valuable that could possibly be. But
25:33
Speaker 1: also which books had at that time still had profitable,
25:37
Speaker 1: uh you know, profitable odds for those six point teasers.
25:41
Speaker 1: So that's something that I would not have even occurred
25:43
Speaker 1: to me before I lived there, But I did end
25:46
Speaker 1: up figuring out by the time I got there, and
25:48
Speaker 1: you know, just I think getting a sense of understanding
25:51
Speaker 1: what actually moves lines in terms of injuries and stuff.
25:54
Speaker 1: You know, how how how you know how lines can
25:58
Speaker 1: be slow to move based on certain things actually towards
26:00
Speaker 1: the end of the season when you have more injuries
26:02
Speaker 1: and and things are uh you know, sort of more
26:05
Speaker 1: influx when we have guys who might be playing might
26:07
Speaker 1: not be playing based on you know how series their
26:09
Speaker 1: team is about winning. So, you know, I think trying
26:12
Speaker 1: to find little advantages came to mind for me in
26:14
Speaker 1: a way that I would not have anticipated before I
26:17
Speaker 1: got there. But no longer run I mean, you know,
26:19
Speaker 1: I wasn't by any means, uh, you know, winning at
26:23
Speaker 1: a high level or close to it. I you know,
26:25
Speaker 1: I just learned a lot about how people who are
26:30
Speaker 1: more successful than me approach football and approach the idea
26:34
Speaker 1: of betting on football. So you guys both. This is
26:36
Speaker 1: really interesting to me. You guys both saw an angle
26:39
Speaker 1: where you could use what you understand about analytics to
26:43
Speaker 1: analyze football, which has become a massive sort of part
26:48
Speaker 1: of the way we talk about it. But I also think,
26:51
Speaker 1: like Raybon, you should talk a little bit about your experience,
26:54
Speaker 1: because we certainly haven't talked about it in the podcast,
26:56
Speaker 1: much like how you transitioned what you doing in the
27:00
Speaker 1: past to what you're doing now, and how the numbers
27:04
Speaker 1: give you credibility because otherwise you're just a dude talking
27:07
Speaker 1: about football who never played it. Yeah, exactly. So you know,
27:11
Speaker 1: for those that don't know, I was. I graduated college
27:14
Speaker 1: during the heart of the recession. Came from Syracuse. There were, um,
27:18
Speaker 1: not a lot of jobs out there. Was lucky enough
27:20
Speaker 1: to land one do an accounting, but it was so bored,
27:23
Speaker 1: and every day I would just um, kind of do
27:25
Speaker 1: fantasy football on the side. And one day I just
27:28
Speaker 1: sent a email to Number Fire like vehemiately disagreeing with
27:32
Speaker 1: one of their takes um and it was you know,
27:34
Speaker 1: wrote him. It was all analytics based. I think their
27:37
Speaker 1: their take was that a odd Bradshaw um was going
27:40
Speaker 1: to sink Andrew Lux Fantasy season for some reason which
27:43
Speaker 1: made no sense to me whatsoever. On on a you know,
27:46
Speaker 1: number of levels, Number one running backs just aren't going
27:49
Speaker 1: to have that big of an impact period um. And
27:52
Speaker 1: so you know whatever, not started writing for free and
27:54
Speaker 1: ended up getting into the fantasy industry. And I say
27:56
Speaker 1: to this day, Chad that you know, even though a
27:58
Speaker 1: lot of people are gonna know for you know, fantasy
28:01
Speaker 1: and the top five accuracy finished, like I to this day,
28:05
Speaker 1: my number one source of pride I think in this
28:09
Speaker 1: industry is still maintaining a fifty six percent betting winning
28:14
Speaker 1: percentage in uh, you know our in an Action network gap.
28:17
Speaker 1: Because I think that was something that it just seemed
28:20
Speaker 1: very daunting and very challenging. Um from the outside. It
28:23
Speaker 1: was something I hadn't done a while to build, you know,
28:25
Speaker 1: I think just like you and you being able to
28:27
Speaker 1: kind of put these use these analytics and these numbers
28:30
Speaker 1: and and have success, um was really was really a
28:32
Speaker 1: source of prise. Do you know what My biggest source
28:34
Speaker 1: of prise is betting and every NFL game during this
28:38
Speaker 1: past NFL season in the Action Network gap uh and
28:42
Speaker 1: going one, one, one, twelve and three winning it a
28:46
Speaker 1: fifty clip and the majority of what I did was
28:50
Speaker 1: just listen to your podcast and then make those bets,
28:52
Speaker 1: and so I almost I probably should pay you a commission. Instead,
28:56
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna take all the money for myself. Question.
29:00
Speaker 1: It's it's nice, right, That's that's how I lead. Barnewell,
29:03
Speaker 1: you may remember that, Um, all you guys do is
29:07
Speaker 1: apply analytics to analysis. You've mentioned d v o A,
29:10
Speaker 1: and like barn and Raybond, you apply a lot of
29:12
Speaker 1: it to betting. When you're going through all the data,
29:15
Speaker 1: what's working and what doesn't? How do you separate you know,
29:19
Speaker 1: to quote Nate Silver, this signal from the noise. Barnwell,
29:22
Speaker 1: you go first, I think just in terms of hyper
29:25
Speaker 1: specialized in context, you know where I think you have
29:28
Speaker 1: those classic things of oh well Andy Dalton or Kirk
29:31
Speaker 1: Cousins can't win in prime time and it's like, okay, well,
29:33
Speaker 1: you know what were those games? Like who are they playing?
29:35
Speaker 1: Because typically primetime games are tougher competition. So we just
29:38
Speaker 1: you know, if you're adjusting for the competition, does that
29:40
Speaker 1: really bear out as as you're playing all that poorly?
29:42
Speaker 1: You know, and just the small samples of you know,
29:44
Speaker 1: this guy's greet at home. This guy's great on the road.
29:47
Speaker 1: You know, I think just applying some broader context tool. Okay,
29:50
Speaker 1: you know, is that true for him in multiple seasons?
29:53
Speaker 1: Is that true for you know, other players of his position.
29:56
Speaker 1: Is that a meaningful split or is that just noise
29:58
Speaker 1: to your points? I think, you know, just just being
30:01
Speaker 1: willing to test stuff. I don't think it has to
30:03
Speaker 1: be you know, the you don't have to be a
30:05
Speaker 1: machine learning algorithm. It doesn't have to be the most
30:07
Speaker 1: complex thing, but just in terms of having a quizzical
30:09
Speaker 1: mind understanding, you know, Okay, well, here's this trying to
30:13
Speaker 1: think there's a thing, or here's this trend that I'm
30:15
Speaker 1: hearing is a thing? How valuable is it? And then
30:18
Speaker 1: if other people believe it's the thing, how can I
30:19
Speaker 1: you know, possibly you know, put it in context and
30:21
Speaker 1: make money off of it too, you know, put it
30:24
Speaker 1: in the appropriate context of it not being a meaningful thing.
30:27
Speaker 1: It goes right into what Bill said about relevant samples.
30:29
Speaker 1: And I think the key is thinking in terms of probabilities,
30:32
Speaker 1: thinking probabilistically. So, uh, if you have a hypothesis or
30:37
Speaker 1: something you've tested that's you know, supposed to be right,
30:40
Speaker 1: seventy percent at a time and it's wrong one or
30:43
Speaker 1: two times, you know, don't go and write it off
30:45
Speaker 1: because of you know it went oh for two. You
30:48
Speaker 1: know that that's something that's going to happen, even you know,
30:51
Speaker 1: in the best models that would go seventy five perks.
30:53
Speaker 1: And I think in the NFL, one of the key
30:55
Speaker 1: things for me is always being aware of adjusting for
31:00
Speaker 1: how the league is changing, because a lot of people
31:02
Speaker 1: that this happens a lot during draft analysis is people
31:05
Speaker 1: look at these they take these long term data from
31:08
Speaker 1: decades ago and they say, well, uh, wide receiver has
31:11
Speaker 1: never done X, Y and Z in college and gone
31:13
Speaker 1: on to do X y Z in the NFL. And
31:15
Speaker 1: it's like, well, in the last five years, the amount
31:18
Speaker 1: of routes run by, like the third ride receiver has balloon.
31:21
Speaker 1: Teams are playing totally different offenses. Uh, you know, guys
31:24
Speaker 1: are getting on the field. Uh you know, sooner there's there,
31:28
Speaker 1: there's x amount more percentage of passes. Completion percentages are
31:32
Speaker 1: you know this much higher, interception percentages are this much lower,
31:35
Speaker 1: And a lot of people aren't adjusting I think quickly
31:38
Speaker 1: enough for some of these trends that have uh kind
31:40
Speaker 1: of jumped up in the last five and ten years
31:42
Speaker 1: since I think since the early part of the decade
31:46
Speaker 1: when they change when the with the rule changes for
31:48
Speaker 1: the defensive holding and whatnot, and then kind of going
31:50
Speaker 1: forward since then. So that's a big thing for me,
31:53
Speaker 1: is just being sure to always kind of keep fresh
31:54
Speaker 1: data and not going back too far and being able
31:56
Speaker 1: to kind of test out when when to kind of
31:59
Speaker 1: apply some cutoffs or wait the older data os. It's
32:03
Speaker 1: like Raybond, I think about your take on Aaron Rodgers
32:07
Speaker 1: sort of late in the season and through the playoffs,
32:09
Speaker 1: explained to people what your take was because you were
32:12
Speaker 1: ahead of the curve and that's what the analysis was
32:14
Speaker 1: telling you. My Rodgers hot take, I didn't think it
32:17
Speaker 1: should have been that hot. But essentially he was a
32:19
Speaker 1: below average of you know, queerly below average quarterback, had
32:24
Speaker 1: been so for a number of years, and um, it
32:28
Speaker 1: wasn't because of his supporting cast. It was exacerbated by
32:31
Speaker 1: his supporting cast. He was a guy that was willing,
32:33
Speaker 1: essentially willing to uh take the safe and conservative completion
32:38
Speaker 1: over uh, you know, messing up his interception, uh right,
32:44
Speaker 1: and it turned the package offense into a very Uh,
32:48
Speaker 1: you know, below average offense that that team that relied
32:51
Speaker 1: on everything else, that relied on a running game, It
32:54
Speaker 1: relied on a defense that relied on you know, really
32:56
Speaker 1: good receivers to get by. And once you took those
32:58
Speaker 1: receivers out, you only the most one. You kind of
33:01
Speaker 1: saw the you know what the results of that. You
33:04
Speaker 1: saw them get banged by San Francisco, which I mean
33:06
Speaker 1: I would have put any amount of money on that
33:09
Speaker 1: result happening. Um, probably like seventy five times out of
33:12
Speaker 1: a hundred, just because there was you just looked up
33:15
Speaker 1: and down that San Francisco defense and you said, there's
33:17
Speaker 1: nowhere Aaron Rodgers is going to move this ball consistently
33:20
Speaker 1: if against a team that can get pressure without witzing
33:23
Speaker 1: it and use seven coverage. And so that that was
33:25
Speaker 1: I didn't think it should have been a hot take,
33:27
Speaker 1: but you know, name value is so big in the
33:29
Speaker 1: NFL that it ended up being on the San Francisco forty.
33:34
Speaker 1: Niners had a minus twenty five turnover differential, which is
33:37
Speaker 1: bad and everyone knows how important turnover differential is. Uh.
33:40
Speaker 1: They had two interceptions, which is the fewest of any
33:43
Speaker 1: team in the NFL history for a sixteen game season
33:46
Speaker 1: that's also bad and does not seem likely to recur.
33:48
Speaker 1: So when I'm doing my research before the year, typically
33:51
Speaker 1: to a column, I read about the five teams most
33:53
Speaker 1: likely to improve, the five teams most likely to decline.
33:56
Speaker 1: Even in April, I wrote a column July, But even
33:58
Speaker 1: in April I tweeted of lineers, we're going to make
33:59
Speaker 1: the playoff us if they got a quasi healthy season
34:02
Speaker 1: from Jimmy Garoppolo. Just because when you look through history,
34:05
Speaker 1: the team's turnover differential has virtually no predicative value to
34:09
Speaker 1: the following season. I think you have rare exceptions here
34:12
Speaker 1: and there, but they get swamped. Teams that are at
34:14
Speaker 1: the extremes almost always uh dramatically improved. They're turning freerential
34:19
Speaker 1: if it sucked the year before, or vice versa, if
34:21
Speaker 1: they had a great turn for durmential, it tends to
34:23
Speaker 1: that's off. The Niners had the worst tone over turnover
34:25
Speaker 1: differential in football, which was extremely likely to improven that
34:28
Speaker 1: They've been so many investments in their defense and so
34:31
Speaker 1: much talent they were adding to their roster, and that
34:33
Speaker 1: was without D four for most of the year. By
34:35
Speaker 1: the way, in the long run, I figured going from
34:38
Speaker 1: your uh, you know, a third string quarterback. I guess
34:42
Speaker 1: the combination of Dick Mallinson G. J. Bethard to Jimmy
34:44
Speaker 1: Garoppolo for probably twelve fourteen games was kind of, my
34:47
Speaker 1: estimate is a pretty significant upgrade. So the Niners were
34:51
Speaker 1: available at forty two one to win the Super Bowl
34:53
Speaker 1: for the year. That was a nice little opportunity. Was
34:56
Speaker 1: able to hedge with the Chiefs once they got to
34:58
Speaker 1: the super Bowl itself, but there was a lot of
35:00
Speaker 1: opportunity with the Niners to win the division too in
35:02
Speaker 1: the n C two in the Super Bowl, Niner scooters
35:05
Speaker 1: were a pretty significant value, even though you know, obviously
35:08
Speaker 1: things have gone broken slightly differently, but I think given
35:11
Speaker 1: their talent level, level of play, became pretty clear they
35:14
Speaker 1: were much better than the market value before the year.
35:16
Speaker 1: And the biggest reason why was that their turner terreential
35:19
Speaker 1: was never going to be as bad as it was.
35:22
Speaker 1: Oh that's good, that's really really good. As an exercise
35:26
Speaker 1: to the listener, go try and find the team that
35:29
Speaker 1: has a bore stoner friend football in twenty nineteen, and
35:31
Speaker 1: then maybe think about that team possibly improving in Well,
35:34
Speaker 1: why can't you just tell us right now, like when
35:36
Speaker 1: you look at all the free agency moves, you've graded
35:38
Speaker 1: every single one of on Raybon has been putting out
35:40
Speaker 1: more content about how to measure player props and fantasy
35:44
Speaker 1: rankings against the free agency moves. For both of you, Bill,
35:47
Speaker 1: you go first, do you see a team right now
35:50
Speaker 1: that is under value? Do you see a team that
35:52
Speaker 1: is your Niners of two thousand twenty. I don't think
35:55
Speaker 1: there's anyone who's quite as obvious of a value. Unfortunately,
36:00
Speaker 1: at that level, I would to the Chargers are probably
36:02
Speaker 1: the closest thing, but they're also the Chargers. We don't
36:05
Speaker 1: know what they're gonna get out of their quarterback play,
36:07
Speaker 1: which that can swamp a lot of what I would
36:10
Speaker 1: typically see in the numbers. I think a classic example
36:12
Speaker 1: is the Broncos when they were replacing Tim Tebow with
36:15
Speaker 1: paid In Manning. The numbers said, the Broncos are going
36:17
Speaker 1: to decline because so much about that Tim Tebow season
36:19
Speaker 1: was unsustainable and lucky. It's wins in close games, wins
36:22
Speaker 1: and overtime. They got paid in Manning, and because Payton
36:24
Speaker 1: Manning is so much better than Tim Tebow, that swamped
36:27
Speaker 1: all the numbers for the previous year because the team
36:29
Speaker 1: was so different with Payton manning a quarterback. So I
36:32
Speaker 1: might have pointed to what the Chargers, but I would
36:35
Speaker 1: be concerned that Tyrod Taylor, who I like, you know,
36:37
Speaker 1: is not as good of a quarterback as Philip Rivers days,
36:39
Speaker 1: and that could be something that holds them back. So
36:41
Speaker 1: there's not that sort of dramatically obvious team to me.
36:45
Speaker 1: I would say maybe the Bengals would be a team
36:47
Speaker 1: that I think are going to take a step forward
36:49
Speaker 1: that's maybe bigger than people think, But I don't think
36:51
Speaker 1: they're going to be a super Bowl team. All right.
36:52
Speaker 1: Bernwell cleverly evaded that question by saying the Bagles will
36:56
Speaker 1: be better than people think. Who's your under value team
37:01
Speaker 1: right now any market? The New York Giants. The New
37:03
Speaker 1: York Giants UH tied for the worst turnover differential in
37:07
Speaker 1: the week, so we got that going for us. With
37:09
Speaker 1: the Charges, I think Daniel Jones far exceeded expectations and
37:13
Speaker 1: even show you know, showed some flashes to where um,
37:16
Speaker 1: he takes a normal second year leap reduced to some
37:19
Speaker 1: of the turnovers and whatnot. I think you have an
37:22
Speaker 1: explosive supporting cast around him. And listen, you have an unknown.
37:27
Speaker 1: You have some unknowns in the coaching staff with some
37:29
Speaker 1: guys who I think are better suited to their roles
37:31
Speaker 1: after right now than they've been as leaders of teams.
37:34
Speaker 1: And so you have this kind of upside I think
37:36
Speaker 1: all around where you know, the Giants are gonna be
37:39
Speaker 1: looked at as a team that's not, you know, expected
37:41
Speaker 1: to do much. But it doesn't take a lot, especially
37:44
Speaker 1: in this division where you have the Washington Redskins, which
37:46
Speaker 1: are beatable twice a year. You have the Eagles, which
37:49
Speaker 1: have shown even when they make the playoffs, they're beatable
37:51
Speaker 1: twice a year. Uh, and then you have the Cowboys,
37:53
Speaker 1: who are this kind of you know, unknown now going
37:56
Speaker 1: to a new coaching staff. So I look for the
37:58
Speaker 1: New York Giants. I think of improvements on defense, which
38:02
Speaker 1: easier to improve year over year regresses to the mean
38:05
Speaker 1: more often than not than offense does. I think you're
38:07
Speaker 1: gonning to see a little bit of a natural regression
38:09
Speaker 1: on defense for the Giants. I think that Barnwell, you agree, Yeah,
38:13
Speaker 1: I think so. And you know I would to put
38:14
Speaker 1: them as a super Bowl team by any means, but um,
38:17
Speaker 1: you know, could they be a seven eight win team. Yeah,
38:20
Speaker 1: I don't think that's out of the question. Okay, guys,
38:22
Speaker 1: it's time for our final segment. Another thing, another thing.
38:31
Speaker 1: This one is going to be a rapid fire. Are
38:32
Speaker 1: you ready? Both of you will answer. This is called
38:35
Speaker 1: the I'm naming this the inaugural Bill O'Brien rapid fire question.
38:42
Speaker 1: The quarterback you love to bet, but whose coach makes
38:45
Speaker 1: you nervous? Told the trigger? Maybe Dak Prescott. We'll see
38:51
Speaker 1: the McCarthy. But I already against Mike McCarthy. I mean,
38:54
Speaker 1: I have experienced with Mike McCarthy. I've seen what happened
38:56
Speaker 1: in the past. He cost you know, Aaron Lodgers now
38:59
Speaker 1: with different Smaron Rock six years ago he caught Aaron
39:01
Speaker 1: Rodgers two Super Bowls with his decision making. I think
39:04
Speaker 1: so I'm inclined to until I see otherwise, bet Againstnike McCarthy.
39:08
Speaker 1: But Mike McCarthy loves analytics. Now he's a changed man. Yeah,
39:12
Speaker 1: I've heard that one before. I believe it. Believe it
39:14
Speaker 1: when I actually see it in practice. I will say
39:17
Speaker 1: teddy Bridge voter and seven career as a starter against
39:22
Speaker 1: the spread. But I don't know what to make of
39:24
Speaker 1: his new coach, but love betting on Teddy Bridge voter.
39:27
Speaker 1: All right, I call this that's a good one. I
39:29
Speaker 1: call this the U first ever DeAndre Hopkins uh rapid
39:36
Speaker 1: fire question. The wide receiver will soon be as disposable
39:41
Speaker 1: as running backs, That is my hot take. Wide receiver
39:45
Speaker 1: will soon be as disposable as running backs as a position.
39:47
Speaker 1: Raybond your first. Oh yeah, yeah, No, it will not
39:50
Speaker 1: be disposable as running backs, because the whole premise of
39:54
Speaker 1: that is that it's because passing is more efficient, and um,
39:58
Speaker 1: that is not going to change even if the individual
40:01
Speaker 1: components of that aren't quite as important as let's say
40:05
Speaker 1: a quarterback because you have four to five of them
40:07
Speaker 1: running routes on every play. That doesn't mean that that
40:10
Speaker 1: wide receivers are going to go the way right, burn Well,
40:13
Speaker 1: wide receivers could be less valuable than they might seem.
40:16
Speaker 1: Right now, I could to the top of the market,
40:17
Speaker 1: maybe not hitting the peaks you might expect, But no,
40:20
Speaker 1: running backs are pretty much a waste of time to
40:22
Speaker 1: care about. Wide receivers are not the paths always needed
40:26
Speaker 1: Bill Belichick more than Tom Brady. Burnwell, yes or no, no,
40:31
Speaker 1: Tom Brady is quite valuable and we've seen Bill Belichick
40:33
Speaker 1: without a quarterback and it has not always been very effective.
40:37
Speaker 1: So I think I read about this a few years ago.
40:39
Speaker 1: I think it came on the side of Brady hopefully,
40:41
Speaker 1: But yeah, I would pick Brady over Belichick. Wow, you
40:45
Speaker 1: saw the Browns with without Tom Brady. You saw the
40:48
Speaker 1: Matt Castle year with the greatest team you know on
40:51
Speaker 1: sixteen and the year before they were eleven and five.
40:53
Speaker 1: Granted they should have made the playoffs probably it's a
40:55
Speaker 1: pretty rare thing. But Tom Brady has been carrying this team.
40:59
Speaker 1: But get at the VU you look at the advance
41:01
Speaker 1: Batricks when it comes to how good that defense has
41:02
Speaker 1: been for the better part of the last decade. It
41:04
Speaker 1: was only last year that the defense kind of held
41:06
Speaker 1: up the end of the bargain. Bill Belichick JOm Vinue
41:09
Speaker 1: test Averdy into a near pro bowler when he was
41:11
Speaker 1: in Cleveland, Raybon Belichick more than Brady. Yes or no,
41:15
Speaker 1: I'm gonna disagree with Bill here. I'm gonna go yes
41:17
Speaker 1: only because I think you have all the advantages that
41:21
Speaker 1: Belichick brings to your organization, and Belichick has shown a
41:24
Speaker 1: dept at finding quarterbacks other than Brady that have gone
41:28
Speaker 1: on a half success. I mean, you look at Jimmy Garoppolo,
41:31
Speaker 1: you look at the success they had with Matt Castle
41:33
Speaker 1: uh in twenty weight or nine. I believe it was
41:36
Speaker 1: so um that I think that's enough to give him
41:38
Speaker 1: the slight edge. But quarterback is always going to be
41:40
Speaker 1: the number one thing that separates teams then coaches um.
41:42
Speaker 1: But in this case, I'll say that just because he
41:44
Speaker 1: could probably find another quarterback Burnwell, Nick Folds will be
41:48
Speaker 1: the starting quarterback for the Bears in at some point. Yes,
41:52
Speaker 1: I don't think week one. I think this is an
41:54
Speaker 1: organization that wants to believe Mitch Drabinski is the guy.
41:57
Speaker 1: Like that's one of the reasons they didn't push for
41:59
Speaker 1: a better option and quarterback. I think they want Nick
42:02
Speaker 1: Foles to be just good enough to make them think
42:04
Speaker 1: that Mr. Whisky is still their best options. Like the
42:06
Speaker 1: Troisky starts a Week one, but we will see Nick
42:09
Speaker 1: Foles before week seventeen. I'm going the opposite. I think
42:12
Speaker 1: Nick Foles will be the start. I think Folds will
42:15
Speaker 1: be the start of week one. If you look at
42:16
Speaker 1: the advanced metric, he was slightly better than true Whisky
42:18
Speaker 1: and pretty much every category, and I think they would
42:21
Speaker 1: rather a quarterback that just can you know, run the offense,
42:24
Speaker 1: get the ball out. However, I don't think he is
42:26
Speaker 1: substantially better than true Whisky uh to necessarily hold him
42:30
Speaker 1: off all season one when you especially when you account
42:33
Speaker 1: for the um rushing upside that tru Risky has had
42:36
Speaker 1: at times. So I think they'll call. They'll be calls
42:38
Speaker 1: for tru Risky at some point, and it will kind
42:40
Speaker 1: of be like the minshew Fold situation where eventually the
42:43
Speaker 1: team gives it. I love how you guys debate each other.
42:46
Speaker 1: It's like, this is how analytics guys. WHOA, that's crazy.
42:49
Speaker 1: I'm gonna I'm gonna politely disagree. This is not like
42:53
Speaker 1: we're not talking first take here, guys, like we're only
42:56
Speaker 1: in polite when it comes to you, Chad. I appreciate.
43:00
Speaker 1: I appreciate that. Uh all right. My last question, when
43:04
Speaker 1: do you normally go to bed on Sunday night Monday
43:07
Speaker 1: mornings during the NFL season? I asked someone who has
43:10
Speaker 1: recently picked up duties as a podcast guest on ESPN
43:14
Speaker 1: Daily Which tape and midnight on Sundays. Once I started
43:18
Speaker 1: this year, I think my average bedtime was six thirty
43:20
Speaker 1: in the morning Monday morning. Yeah, it's I've been there.
43:26
Speaker 1: I have been there these days. For me, it's usually
43:29
Speaker 1: not too long after the game ends because I am
43:32
Speaker 1: so burnt out because I usually stay up all night
43:35
Speaker 1: meeting into Sunday. So the Saturday night, I'm usually up
43:38
Speaker 1: all night doing rankings, you know, kind of updating models,
43:41
Speaker 1: getting bets in prop bets, all these different things, and
43:44
Speaker 1: then I try to stay up through all the games,
43:46
Speaker 1: and then I just kind of crash. What I like
43:48
Speaker 1: about this is there's a good forty eight hours where
43:51
Speaker 1: neither of you are sleeping, right, which I appreciate. I
43:55
Speaker 1: appreciate you both doing your best sleeping your least to
43:59
Speaker 1: get out and for nation, for the rest of the
44:01
Speaker 1: world to consume. That's what we need in this time
44:03
Speaker 1: of coronavirus epidemics. Bill Barnwell, Chris Raybon, thank you guys
44:09
Speaker 1: both for joining the Favorites. Before we go, as always,
44:14
Speaker 1: we have some inspiring words from our CEO, Mr Patrick Keene.
44:21
Speaker 1: No God, please, no, no, no no. This has been
44:27
Speaker 1: the Favorites from the Action Network. Download from Apple, Spotify, Stitcher, Subscribe, unsubscribe,
44:32
Speaker 1: re subscribe until next time. I love you,