Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Favorites - NFL Best Bets Week 7

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The Favorites - NFL Best Bets Week 7 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BED three
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. I'm live
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: from my Tommy John remote studio here in my hotel room,
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: and I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion,
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: my compadre might BFF professional better, Simon Hunter Ero.
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: Simon, Chad, you picked a great time head out west.
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: It is cold on the East coast.
• 0:38
  Speaker 3: You know what, Simon.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: Since I've been in La it has been gray and
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: sixty five degrees.
• 0:47
  Speaker 3: So I'm struggling.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: It is not you know, a bowl of cherries out
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: here with my view of the ocean, just hobnobbin with
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: celabs and going to fancy places for dinner. I am
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: struggling right now, Okay. I mean I'm sitting in a
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: hotel room. I can barely control the ac It's not easy.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: I would like a little bit of sympathy for myself.
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: Today is our NFL Week seven Best Bets episode, where
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: Simon and I narrow down our five picks in the
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: Favorites one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Them contests
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: presented by BET three sixty five. Sign up now Favorites
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: dot Action network dot com. We will also get into
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: the Foxhole, give out our Tommy John Big Balls Bet
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: of the Week, discuss Simon's bigg As Bets, ore Boosted
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: money Line, Underdog Parlay, the Underdog Round Robin, and so
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: much more. Bets are rolling in, the lines are moving,
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: decisions need to be made. As our volume podcast boss
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: Colin Coward likes.
• 1:45
  Speaker 3: To say there's a sea of money out there.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: As a reminder, The Favorites podcast is presented by Bet
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: three sixty five and now new Bet three sixty five.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: Customers get two hundred dollars in bonus bets. When you
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: bet five dollars, sign up using promo code Favorites, deposit
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: ten dollars, place a bet for five dollar to get
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: two hundred dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more.
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: Whatever the moment, It's never ordinary. A Bet three sixty
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: five must be twenty one or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or eighteen and older.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: In Kentucky, gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: one eight hundred bets off. In Iowa terms, conditioned restrictions
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: apply all right, as always on Thursdays during the season,
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: we like to hear how the wise guys are responding
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: to our Tuesday conversation. We are that influential. We know
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: the lines are moving based on what we say, and
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: then the pros must tell us what they think of
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: our opinion. Simon, let's do Shreff calls.
• 2:45
  Speaker 4: Hello, he's there. I'm talking rain.
• 2:49
  Speaker 3: Rain telephone range.
• 2:51
  Speaker 4: Somebody said maybe.
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: One should do man.
• 2:55
  Speaker 4: Yeah, we'll start right away. The game we like. We
• 2:57
  Speaker 4: like Cleveland. They got to six and a half.
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: It's back down to five and a half, and a
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: lot of books should have known this was gonna come
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: back down, but no one thought of Mark Cooper was
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: worth a real point to the spread. So that was
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: a bad overreaction by the books. The professionals come in,
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: and I know played professionals. I still like them at
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: five and a half. So as long as you can
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: still find the six, which I would shop around for,
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: I think that's that's where the pros kind of have
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: broken on that one. So again, that's a game we're
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: gonna dive into pretty.
• 3:25
  Speaker 4: Heavy coming up here.
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: Surprisingly a game I flipped on a lot of pros,
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: a lot of guys. I talked to the sharp guys.
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: They love green Bay. They love green Bay minus two
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: and a half. So I know, I like, I'd like
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: to Houston. I like Houston a plus three. I'm probably
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: gonna avoid it, either take green Bay to two and
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: a half or just avoid it altogether. It just seems
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: like most of the guys I talk do like the
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: green Bay side. The reason seems pretty sound. I think
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: a lot of their thinking is the same with you.
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: It's like, this number should probably be three to three
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: and a half. You're getting two and a half because
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: there's so much respect and love the general public right now.
• 4:01
  Speaker 4: To CJ, the value definitely looks like it is on
• 4:04
  Speaker 4: green Bay.
• 4:05
  Speaker 5: There.
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: So a game I was pretty wrong about. A game
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: we nailed that the number had moved too much. The
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: Lions that was plus two and a half. Shout out
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: to anyone that does early entries like I do in
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: our contest. You were able to get the Lions two
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: and a half. That was nice to I did. I
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: just put my picks and usually right when we get
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: done our show on Tuesdays, I know our fans want
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: us to do Thursdays. So that's why I didn't even.
• 4:28
  Speaker 4: Hit chat up.
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: I was like, we can't put them these in any way.
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: But I knew that Detroit number was gonna move. It
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: was just insane that had gone up to two and
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: a half that came crashing back down at one and
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: a half. So it's nice to know we're on the
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: same side because I was scared. I was like, who's
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: moving all this Minnesota money? And I think me and
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: you talk about it all the time, like there's professional
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: groups who they'll come in small on one side, the
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: books will react thinking it's professional money taking that side,
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: and then when they get the number they want, that's
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: when they come in heavy. And that was the class
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: of Detroit case. So even when I open up the app,
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: I'm sure you've seen it's like ninety percent of the
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: money right now is on this Detroit team. So yes,
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: that's that's a public and professional play. There a games,
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: we'll go the ones that people are split on. I
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: really like the Giants plus three and a half. I
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: talked to playing professionals who had my same view of
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: if this gets a two and a half, how do
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: you not take the Eagles, And a couple of them
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: are just taking them at three. They don't think it's
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: ever going to get to two and a half. So
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: if you like the Eagles, go grab the minus three.
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: I just don't think it's ever going to get down
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: at two and a half. I don't think there's enough
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: professional money coming in, especially the unknown with neighbors. We've
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: just seen that number.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: Now and now Andrew Thomas, like Andrew Thomas, is massive,
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: literally massive, but also a massive loss for the Giants
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: a game.
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: I love Chiefs pretty split professionals.
• 5:48
  Speaker 4: I like the forty nine ers. There's pros like me
• 5:50
  Speaker 4: that love the Chiefs.
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: You can talk a nise them about how this Chiefs
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: team's got so many injuries while the forty niners are
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: getting healthier at this point, they have the offensive weapons.
• 5:59
  Speaker 4: YadA, yadaya.
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: At the end of the day, it's my homes of
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: the dog, like you just, I'm not gonna budget my
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: stance on taking my homes the dog. It's just a
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: long term profitable spot to take this guy. He just
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: always covers in these type of scenarios. So that's been
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: a lot of discourse on that one. That one really split, yeah,
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: between the professionals. In the last one a game we
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: touched on a little bit again, another game I got
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: lucky that I locked in early on Tuesday, Jets minus
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: one and a half. It's now moved up to two
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: and a half. Not shocking at all because we talked
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: about it. For Russell Wilson was going to become the starter.
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: This was gonna keep moving against his Pittsburgh team. It's
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: looking more and more like that's gonna happen here. And
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: the last one is a game we talked about. We
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: already knew this was a professional side. But it's the Bucks, right.
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: The Bucks number got up to four and a half Sunday,
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: it's been bet down to three and a half. Some
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: books even touched three, and then it went back up
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: to three and a half. I think that's where it
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: should be, right And I was hoping to get more
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: info on Mike Evans.
• 6:58
  Speaker 4: Unfortunately haven't I heard much.
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: I know it's a soft tinger soft tissue injury that
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: you know he might miss the game, but the line
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: doesn't reflect that right now. So still very confident in
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: our books bet but that's that's very public. Ravens heavy
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: professionals are on this Buccaneers team.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I've been checking injury reports from Mike Evans. I
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: haven't seen anything yet, but look, we're going to get
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: into all these games.
• 7:25
  Speaker 5: I think.
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: I think some of the games that you mentioned are
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: like very interesting. Obviously the Steelers Jets, Obviously, the Chiefs
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: and Niners. Those are marquee matchups from a betting perspective.
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: Short numbers going to be a lot of opinions. We
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: talked about the public all season long, how it had
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: been a dreadful year for the public this season so far,
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: thirty eight, forty nine and three forty three percent against
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: the spread this season.
• 7:53
  Speaker 3: Now, as we said through five weeks, that.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: Was the worst start ever the past twenty years. Now
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: it's the four worse start through six weeks because the
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: public went ten to three and one last week. So
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: you were so pressing it last week, right, like you said,
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: the public is due. We did add more daily, more
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: chalky picks than normal to our Phase fives.
• 8:17
  Speaker 3: Those were the games we actually won.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: So the question will be how aggressively are we leaning
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: into the fading the public this week. How much will
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: that regression that we expect factor into impacting the games
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: we like the first game we touched on it on Tuesday,
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: you didn't mention it into sharp calls, and you and
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: I have not discussed it at all since then. But
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: I did put Miami and Indy back in there because
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: we leaned Dolphins three and a half.
• 8:47
  Speaker 3: It's now three. It's come down.
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: I think it's come down because a lot of people,
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: as soon as Anthony Richardson was it was indicated that
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: he would likely be the starter, people started betting on
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: the Dolphins. We didn't think it would be in our
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: top five. I just left it on the list because
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: there is such a pro Joe discrepancy with the money
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: on the Dolphins and the tickets on the Colts. Do
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: you have any opinion on this game that you feel
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: more strongly about it because Anthony Richardson is now expected
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: to be the starter.
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: No, it's just a game I'm staying away from. It's
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: like there's a plenty of ugly dogs this week, and
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: then there's some dogs that aren't that ugly. That's like,
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: I'd rather lose six figures on Detroit or the Chiefs
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: than fucking with this Miami team again. It's like, I
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: can't be bothered with putting a lot of money on
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: this one. And I'm hoping you weren't going to force
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: me into putting this in the contest, because you're right,
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: the pros liked this spot for Miami.
• 9:45
  Speaker 4: But it's kind of the same thing for last week.
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: These guys came in heavi as shit, this group on
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: the Tennessee Tids against the Colts because.
• 9:54
  Speaker 4: We all agree the Colts have a really bad.
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: Defense and they have some questionable weapons on all offense,
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: and you know, no Jonathan Taylor, Pittman's banged up. Like
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: there's a lot to be negative about this Colts team,
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: and I get why other professionals call on the other
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: side of it.
• 10:08
  Speaker 4: It's just I just can't do it. I can't.
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: I can't put heavy money on this Miami team right now.
• 10:15
  Speaker 3: All right, that's fine.
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: Like we've been burned, uh uh, Like I'm still a
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: little bit hungover from that Jets loss and like that
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: Giants loss. So we're gonna have plenty of bad quarterbacks
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: to bet on and play of ugly games to bet on.
• 10:33
  Speaker 3: We don't need to force one.
• 10:35
  Speaker 4: Yeah, just get and find better numbers.
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: Right, Like it's three now most books, like you kind
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: of missed the three and a half right on Miami,
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: Like I wouldn't just take the three, I'd try to
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: get the.
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: Fret and a half Seattle in Atlanta. We leaned Atlanta
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: when it was two and a half, it's now three.
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: I don't think you know, like all the matchup, all
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: the breakdowns, what's interesting to me? Make me one Atlanta
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: even more. The public loves loves loves Seattle, and even
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: after all that, the line has still moved from two
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: and a half to three. Is there anything that says
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: we're considering Atlanta because at this point it's such a
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: public fade, or do we think Seattle is healthier. They're
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: coming off a bye. Atlanta is getting so lucky. They
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: could easily be zero to six, one and five, two
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: and three, whatever it is. Instead they are where they
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: are because they've really gotten lucky, including by the way
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: that Panthers game, which was much much closer than the
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: score indicates.
• 11:40
  Speaker 4: Yeah, this is the game that we talked about. I
• 11:42
  Speaker 4: just let them never dictate my pick.
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: I took Atlanta in MYCE twon and a half, and
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: I said if it gets up to three and a
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: half on Seahawks, if I hadn't made a bet yet,
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: I would take that number.
• 11:51
  Speaker 4: Like this just screams a game where.
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: The final whoever's the ball lasts, is going to win
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: this byfield goal, right Like, I don't have confidence right
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: now in either, but I have more confidence in this
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: Atlanta defense in Seattle. It just Seattle's defense has just
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: been so bad for so many weeks in a row.
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: Anytime they play a good offense, they just get rolled
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: right now, And I mean, we both agree Atlanta is
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: a really good offense right now, Like it's it's it's hummy.
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: Even though they have injuries to the offensive line, they
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: really haven't lost the beat. So I do I like
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: the matchup for Atlanta. I'd still take them with minus
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: two and a half. But you're right, it's it's gonna
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: get to a point where it's like, you know, if
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: it's three and a half, it's it's gonna be tempting
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: to take Seattle. That's it's gonna be a nice value
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: on a back door.
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: I met a guy last night who's an investor, and
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: he like, that's what he does for a living, right,
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: And we were talking about betting, and he was talking
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: about how minuscule the margin of error is when you
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: are making a bet and going from two and a
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: half to three to three and a half, and the
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: value that people find at three and a half versus
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: the value that people find at two and a half.
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: It truly is when you're betting, unlike anything else in
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: equity markets, because.
• 13:15
  Speaker 3: The band of sort of.
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: Miscalculation is so much bigger than trying to nail a
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: half a point when betting on a game, like to
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: see someone whose livelihood is in the investment space thinking
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: about the narrow margins and betting, and here we are
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: talking about three and a half like one side, two
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: and a half like the other. It's an extra point,
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean.
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: It's just because we've seen it all though. That's why
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: we jogged last week. We were freaking out about that
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: Green Bay half a point and it's like didn't even
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: matter in any which way. And that's just because me
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: and you have been around long enough where it's like
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: sometimes just half a points are a big deal and
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: they do matter, and we try not to react to it.
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I told you I'm a big believer in Yeska,
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: the best of the number is important, but it's also
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: like you just want to be on the right side,
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: so I try not to let it always dictate us
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: where It's like, if we like a side, like I
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: just said, there were a bunch of good numbers, mean
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: you could have locked it on Tuesday, But we can't
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: do that to the fans of the show, right. That's
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: why I even bother texting. People want to listen here
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: hear us go through our picks today and make this pick.
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: So how would I help anyone on the show if
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: I'm telling you, well, I already got Detroit two and
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: a half, so no, no bet for me. I already
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: got the good, best number. I'm on to the next one,
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: so it does matter. But at the same time, it's like,
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: if I thought Detroit this number was gonna come down
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: to the two, I wouldn't give it out. But it's like, no,
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: I think you still have a lot of value on
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: Detroit at plus one and a half, so I still
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: have no issue taking that number.
• 14:50
  Speaker 3: As Scooch one said, the right side is the winning side.
• 14:53
  Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, that's what it comes to Bay.
• 14:58
  Speaker 3: As Milman once said, Green Bay feels like the side
• 15:01
  Speaker 3: here at two and a half, and Chad Millman is
• 15:06
  Speaker 3: proud of himself.
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: Literally, the sharps agree with what Milman is saying. It's
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: like he's a professional, you know what. He just doesn't
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: get appreciated the way that he should for his understanding
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: of the sports betting markets.
• 15:23
  Speaker 3: Green Bay minus two and a half.
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: There are a lot of books that have it at
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: three Houston, but we're talking about that three six five.
• 15:30
  Speaker 3: It's at two and a half.
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: Houston is the public dog. There's so much public love
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: for Houston right now. It definitely makes me like green
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: Bay even more. Now that we've gotten, you know, some
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: confirmation from my fellow sharps, I feel even better about it.
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: You're obviously not feeling great about it. You might even
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: feel like you're being bullied into it.
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: No, I agree with them that that's probably the right number.
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: I just still have major questions about this green Bay team.
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: They're so dependent will be on turnovers, Like that's the
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: only thing I can think of, is like, Okay, maybe
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: they'll get the young kid on the road here and
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: get him the turnover because you're right, like the splits
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: are different between him and home and him on the road.
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: Like you said, it's it's all about the number at
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: the end of the day, and it's like, okay, two
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: and a half, that's the good number. I trust the
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: guys who are saying that, I'll take it.
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: All right, Simon, I can't believe what I'm about to say.
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: I'm in a hotel, so I can't go crazy.
• 16:25
  Speaker 4: Why not? You'll never be there ever again.
• 16:27
  Speaker 3: You never know. It is time four hour Big Ball
• 16:33
  Speaker 3: Better the Week.
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: Presented by Tommy John. If you've got the balls, Tommy
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: John has the support. Great games start with great underwear,
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: and Tommy John makes the greatest My friend sack up
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: because we are going with Cincinnati at Cleveland and we
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: are taking the Cleveland Browns at plus six. You mentioned
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: it in the sharp calls This line god way too aggressive.
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: It got up to six and a half while we
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: were doing the show on Tuesday as Amari Cooper was traded.
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: We know we don't want to bet to Sean Watson,
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: but this one is like a big, fat, hanging curveball
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: that is tempting us, and we are either going to
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: flail and look terrible and swing so hard we hurt
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: our back and fall to our knees. Or we are
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: hitting this one so freaking far out of the park
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: that we are going to look like the courageous big
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: balls betters that we are.
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I wish it was still six and a half, right,
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: that was really nice. That was a nice gift by
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: the sports books there moving that.
• 17:45
  Speaker 4: By a fool.
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: It was a minute like that. Everyone you know it
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: wasn't it. It's like young love. It just can't last.
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: I mean I saw a couple of books touch seven,
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: so it got up there like they were obviously panic
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: moving that number because so much money was flooding, but
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: terrible move. And we talked about like this is a
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: nice matchup defensively for Cleveland against this you know Cincinnati
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: offense that obviously they want to push the ball through
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: the air. I don't know if I'll be able to
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: do that against Cleveland here. And then on the flip side,
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: this should be a get right game. Finally, for Watson,
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: this is one of the worst defenses he's played this season.
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: He knows he's got to hear the noise right the
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: I mean, they just trade his number one receiver. This
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: team is basically just saying to him like we're semi
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: giving up on the season here. You know, I love
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: desperate teams in these type of scenarios. So we talked
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: about we think we're getting a free point and a
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: half of points just because of what happened last week,
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: because it's the pre because of the Brown. You can
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: probably throw another point in there, right, this probably should
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: be only three three and a half in a divisional
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: game like this is so yeah, a ton of free
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: points of value here. We are betting on one of
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: the worst teams in football and easily the worst quarterback
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: right now in football. Right, if you just look at
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: the numbers, it's no fun, always scary. Gotta hold your nose,
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: trust the number, and take the number here with Cleveland.
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah, Also, Cleveland's getting better, right, Their offensive line is
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: getting a little bit healthier.
• 19:11
  Speaker 3: Jack Conklin is back.
• 19:13
  Speaker 4: That's a goody.
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: That's that's a big deal. Nick Chubb is finally going
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: to be back. That's a big deal. There are some
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: pieces here that I think we'll make Deshaun Watson look
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: a little bit better. I don't know if he'll play better,
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: but maybe he's not staring at the rush right in
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: front of him immediately and then taking off like maybe
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: he will feel a little bit more confident, maybe they
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: will run the ball a little bit more effectively. So
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: there is an opportunity here to pounce on the Browns
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: in a in a big division rival game.
• 19:49
  Speaker 5: And so.
• 19:51
  Speaker 3: You know, like.
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: We have to fade the public when they are coming
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: in on the Bengal as such a big road favorite,
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: as heavily as they are, it's we gotta do it.
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and just a reaction too, Like, Okay, I say
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: the Giants do cover that three? Is this number really
• 20:12
  Speaker 2: this high?
• 20:12
  Speaker 4: Still? I don't think so.
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: So there's a lot of things right now where it
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: feels like it's a reaction. We're getting really good value
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: on this Cleveland team. And yeah, the like I said,
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: matchups defensively and offensively. This is as good as it
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: gets for this Cleveland team.
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: Our sponsor, Simon Tommy John makes the most comfortable underwear
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• 21:00
  Speaker 3: It's all right.
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: Look, we've talked about Detroit and Minnesota. We wanted more
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: time to research this. On Tuesday, as we were doing that,
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: the line pushed up to two and a half. Simon,
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: like you said, immediately got some buyback. I think it's
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: interesting you should explain a little bit more like the
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: scenario that you're talking about, and you mentioned about how
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: professional betters manipulate the lines, because it's worth an extra
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: thirty second explanation because a lot of people don't understand it.
• 21:25
  Speaker 3: So explain that a little bit.
• 21:27
  Speaker 4: You know, we talk all the time. Two has become
• 21:29
  Speaker 4: a very key number.
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: And you saw a playout this week with this Vikings team,
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: so you know, a lot of books open them minus
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: one Sunday night, professional money comes in on the Vikings.
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: They get up to two, a little bit more money, right,
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: These professionals keep keep betting it. So again it's not
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: big money. It's like a thousand dollars, that's how much
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: these books will take on individual bets Sunday and Monday,
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: unless you really know them, maybe you get ten thousand,
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: but they'll come in put another couple of thousand on
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: it on Tuesday, move it a little more, and the
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: books will finally move it across that key number of
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: two and a half. And then basically, you know, it
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: depends on what they runners you have, but simultaneously you'll
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: hit multiple books at the same time get to two
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: and a half before all the books move it. Because basically,
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: I mean the truth is a lot of these books
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: they're moving their number off air like professional betters aren't hitting.
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: I mean, I'm not trying to call it these different books,
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: but there's some books that like they ban you instantly,
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: I mean you are instantly banned, and they don't take
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: big bets, especially from runners, professional betters, all that noise.
• 22:33
  Speaker 4: They'll just move their number based off what other.
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: Books are moving their numbers, right, they're not even moving
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: off other people's bets. So yeah, the books that can't
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: get the professional money, they know right away that they
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: kind of fell into a little bit of a trap
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: and that they might have moved the number too much.
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: And you know, we talked about right, losing the number
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: one dandom football or number two. I guess behind TJ.
• 22:54
  Speaker 4: Watt A.
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: Hutchinson should move the number. But did they move it
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: too much? I think that's what the book did, right
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: They they thought that, you know, they're getting ahead of it.
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: The professionals were agreeing with them, they were getting a
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: good movement here, and it kind of came back on
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: them where It's like, I think a lot of people
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: like us are just really skeptical of this Vikings team still.
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: And on the flip side, it's how I mean, I've
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: never been more confident in this Lion's offense. I mean
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: they've just put up back to back forty point games,
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: like it's all clicking right now. And you know, even
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: if their defense suffers here, I don't know how that
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: affects their offense. Like they just they are full blown
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: running down your throat and if that doesn't work, they're
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: they're gonna be able to move with through there.
• 23:36
  Speaker 4: I mean, that's just how dominant this team is right now.
• 23:39
  Speaker 4: So I haven't waivered.
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: I still like them despite them being probably the most
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: public dog right I think they're getting all the money,
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: all the bets right now in Detroit and me and
• 23:48
  Speaker 2: you talked about it. I just don't think the books
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: have caught up to them. And you know, my mind,
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: this is just a little bit too much respect to
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: a Vikings team that not that their wins have been fluky,
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: but a lot of things early in the season went
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: their way with a lot of their games between the
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: turnovers and how well Brian Flores has had this defensive
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: play and then you know Sam Darnold, like that was
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: his first bad game of the year, was that game
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: in England, and you know, maybe he got it right
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: and during this bye week, but okay, you just face
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: the Jets defense. I mean, you think are pretty good,
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: but I think overall the Lions defense has probably been
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: better this year. I don't think it's gonna get any
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: easier for him trying to pass the ball downfield against
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: the Detroit defense.
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: So one thing I want to clear up for people
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: is professional better is getting one thousand dollars down early
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: in the week. If a professional better gets a thousand
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: dollars down on a game early in the week, sometimes
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: that is the equivalent of that same better getting ten, twenty,
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: thirty thousand or more later in the week.
• 24:52
  Speaker 3: Because bookmakers.
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: You say they're sort of moving on air, That basically
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: means bookmakers are just moving the number without any BET's
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: coming in. They're responding to what they're seeing from other
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: operators and assuming those operators who might be more inclined
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: to take professional Better's money are getting money, and so
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: everyone's moving it why lines all moved the same time.
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: But professional book book makers also they book on faces,
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: and so if Simon walks in or someone else walks
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: in that they know as a professional Better, even if
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: they're taking up what's called a nickel bet five hundred
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: dollars or a dime one thousand dollars, they're going to
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: move that number based on who the better is, not
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: on the money taken. And so that's why the money
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: amount doesn't really matter at that point in the season,
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: at that point of the week, because it's about the
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: better who's making the bet, and that's how the line
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: can get manipulated or how the line can move the
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: other way.
• 25:48
  Speaker 3: As for the Lions.
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: Co signed to everything, we have felt this for a
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: couple of weeks. Their offensive line is so dominant and
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: there is definitely a change in the play calling to
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: be more physical, to be more run focused, to have
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: Jared Goff play more within the system when he's amazing,
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: And you're right, this doesn't impact the defense. The worst
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: unit on the field will be the Vikings offense. And
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: so how much will a diminished Vikings defense Lions defense
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: have to overperform against a Vikings offense that is really
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: middle of the road, right, And so now you've got
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: a number one Vikings defense going against a dominant Lions offense.
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: But the offensive line is so good, will it be
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: able to control the Vikings pass rush which is their
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: strength because Brian Flores is so good at devising different
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: blitz schemes.
• 26:47
  Speaker 3: So uh yeah, we're.
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: They are a huge public dog. I hate it, but
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: Dan Campbell is great against the spread. Dan Campbell is
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: great as an underdog and no teams. I got this
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: from Ray Bron listening to the six pack five and
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: no teams at home forty four percent against the spread
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: the past two decades. And then this was great from
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: raybon You know I love ref stats. Clay Martin is
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: the ref road underdogs with Clay Martin seventy against the spread.
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: So we're going with the Lions. They'll be in the
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: contest yeah.
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: And one thing I'll say really quick though, when you
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: talked about better's getting their bets down, I talked.
• 27:31
  Speaker 4: About that COVID.
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: I mean, as horrible as it was, obviously for many
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: reasons for betters, it's been great because you can wear
• 27:37
  Speaker 2: masks now in these casinos and that's been a game
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: changer for a lot of people. And I mean me
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: and Chad talked about it ages ago, Like when I
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: go to the books, I go to work when everyone
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: goes to sleep, like when the main pit bosses leave,
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: that's my time to shine, right when the secondary unit's
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: in there at night. And Chad knows. I mean, I
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: talk about the tricks of the trade. You act drunk
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: with a mask on, you go in there, you act sloppy,
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: like you know what you're doing. You're just throwing money
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: around on stupid bets. I've never in my entire life
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: had anyone say no on a bet after midnight when
• 28:08
  Speaker 2: I have a mask on, acting like I'm a little intoxicated.
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: But if you go in midday when the books are empty,
• 28:15
  Speaker 2: no mask on, and you're asking to put ten k
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: down on, you know the browns, Someone's gonna come down
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: and talk to you. But if you do that at
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: three in the morning, no one's come down to talk
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: to you. They're gonna be like, what an idiot? Yeah,
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: well happy they take this guy's money on this Browns bet.
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: So definitely, if you're someone that's ever been banned or whatever,
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: they can't stop you from going in there. And once
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: they take your bet, they've taken it. They're going to
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: pay you out no matter what. And they'll just give
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: you the same speech they give me every time, which is, oh,
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: did you know you were a banned here? You're not
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: supposed to betting here, and you just oh, I didn't realize.
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: And that's how it is. So they cannot let you in.
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: It's a private business. Once you're in, you make the bets,
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: they've taken the action, they have to pay you out.
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: So that's just something to keep in mind.
• 28:58
  Speaker 4: People.
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: You don't even if if you are banned from a book,
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: that can't stop you from going until they catch you.
• 29:04
  Speaker 3: At ten am, the ticket taker turns around and gives
• 29:07
  Speaker 3: it a quick approval approval please.
• 29:11
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: One more stat short home favorites in the division of
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: three points or less forty five percent against the spread
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: the past twenty years, forty two percent since twenty twenty.
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: I put Carolina Washington in here. Washington a point favorite.
• 29:27
  Speaker 3: Again.
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: Panthers are the play every metric, every trend. It also
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: has bet the Panthers. We will not be putting this contest.
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: I just want that on the record.
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: Carry on, Yeah, carry on the Jenn Daniels commandors.
• 29:38
  Speaker 4: They have some horrid regression coming. I think they're nine
• 29:41
  Speaker 4: for nine on fourth downs this year.
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: It's just it's a Simon, We're not even We've said
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: all we have to say about the Panthers. We have,
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: We've given the people our opinion. We're not going to
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: torture anybody. We've already given the Browns. Let's move on
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: Las Vegas at the Los Angeles Raiders. This number has
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: moved a full point since you, Pegg did as Simon
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: says on Sunday, and like to me, this was about
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: getting the best of the number when you said it,
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: and you were right. All the money and all the
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: tickets on the Rams. I do want to say, like,
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: I don't feel strong that we're going to put in
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: the contest. I do lean Raiders at six and a half.
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: I do think the score last week was so lopsided
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: for so many regressible reasons on the part of the
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: Steelers that I do think you're getting a little bit
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: more value on the Raiders then probably is warranted giving
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: the Rams situation, I.
• 30:37
  Speaker 4: Agree with you, we'll take them.
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: But my fears of all the teams right now that
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: I've watched on film, there are few teams that look
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: like they quit in certain games. The Raiders have like
• 30:46
  Speaker 2: two games this year they look like they've quit on
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: the games. And there's not like games are getting blown out.
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: It's like pretty close games and they just kind of
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: give up in the second half. So I'm with agreements
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: like this number is a good number. You should take
• 30:59
  Speaker 2: this on the Raiders here, But man, it's just so
• 31:02
  Speaker 2: bad and so negative this Raiders team. I feel more
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: comfortable if I see them actually got the gate and
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: win one of these games and get a cover here.
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: It's just hard to back them right now. It just
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: feels like everything's so negative surrounding this team.
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: Game of the week, Game of the season, Super Bowl
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: rematch Kansas City at San Francisco. San Francisco is a
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: one point favorite, your assigmon says on Tuesday when this
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: was at one and a half take the Chiefs, And honestly,
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: this line had not moved until I think late Wednesday
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: night early this morning, going back down from one and
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: a half to one. And the Chiefs are a massive
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: public dog. So the fact the line had barely moved
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: closer to pick says what I think. What you indicated
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: at the top of the show with sharp calls is
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: that the books might be getting a lot of professional
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: money on San Francisco. So I know we want to
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: be on the Chiefs, and I feel the same am
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: exact way I did before the Super Bowl last year.
• 32:03
  Speaker 3: The Niners roster is better, The Niners.
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: Have a better team. The Chiefs could easily be two
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: and three. Listening to Stockey on the Action Network podcast,
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: he made great points. Isaiah Likely's toe could have been
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: a loss when his toe was out of bounds on
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: that game tying catch for the Ravens. In Week one,
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: there was a PI call on a desperate heave by
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes in a game that the Chiefs ultimately beat
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: the Bengals, when the Bengals never should have let the
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: Chiefs in that game. They had a missed PI call
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: when they were playing the Falcons that cost the Falcons
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: the game. Like they have a lot of issues, right,
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: no Pacheco, no rashe Rice. They're not playing great, They're
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: not moving the ball down the field. It's like, this
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: is the heart versus argument. Your brain says you got
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: to take the Niners. Your heart is saying, who the
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: fuck bets against Patrick Mahomes isn't underdoge?
• 33:08
  Speaker 3: Yeah?
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: I think we all agree though that this fort Niners
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: team is better and they had better weapons and everything
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: like that. But me and you earn a total agreement
• 33:16
  Speaker 2: that went it's in the fourth quarter. That's where the
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: Chiefs get you. And if they can just keep this close,
• 33:22
  Speaker 2: which I think they'll be able to because we've seen
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: it this year. The forty nine Ers just haven't been
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: putting teams away and that's kind of been there kryptonite
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: this year. So we totally understand all the injuries that
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: the Chiefs teams had, and we all knew that this
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: would probably be a more public dog, right just because
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: they are five and zero and Mahomes, you know, does
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: usually cover these games. And I talked me and you
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: joked about it. It's like, how do you not put
• 33:44
  Speaker 2: them in Detroit? And a teaser like again, both them
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: across seven and a half when they are both plus
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: one and a half, Like that's that's too good to
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: be true. So all of this makes sense, but at
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: the end of the day, it's just you said it.
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: It's like, we can't not take my home here. It's
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: just if he has the ball, he's down by three
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: in the fourth quarter, I think it we're at least
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: going to overtime, if not winning this game out right
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: at the end. And you cannot say the same with
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: Purdy and this forty nine ers offense. I just you know,
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: as well as he's played, it just feels like it's
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: way too much on his shoulders right now and he's
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: eventually to get caught. We need to play against a
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: really good defense, and that's what we have here, right,
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: a really good defense.
• 34:24
  Speaker 4: So yeah, the Chiefs running three tight end sets and
• 34:30
  Speaker 4: trying to make it.
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: Work right now because they don't have any receivers, it's
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: a little daunting to bet on it. But having Mahomes
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: out plus number it kind of eases the pain a
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: little bit. So not going to overreact to it too much.
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: Just take the plus one and a half.
• 34:43
  Speaker 3: I mean, do we really think this ends up in
• 34:46
  Speaker 3: our contest. I'm not as.
• 34:47
  Speaker 4: Convinced as he right now about the Chiefs.
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it has to end at some point. Patrick Mahomes
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: being able to do this and this team this year
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: specifically not having the talent, not having the depth, being
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: able to stay in these games and getting the lucky
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: breaks they're getting, Like, Patrick Mahomes, getting you in the
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: position to win the game or tie the game is
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: one thing. Getting all the lucky breaks that they have
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: been getting is entirely different. Like, how can it keep happening?
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: Cause if you're really good, you put in the work,
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: you put yourself in the right scenarios, you make your
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: own luck.
• 35:25
  Speaker 4: Chat have you not learned that in life?
• 35:27
  Speaker 3: So you could say that, but he's like, becomes the teacher.
• 35:31
  Speaker 4: You've learned nothing. You learn nothing from last year's playoffs.
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: They literally had the hardest road in NFL history to
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: make it to the Super Bowl last year, and they
• 35:39
  Speaker 2: fucking did it somehow, and they took down an even
• 35:42
  Speaker 2: better forty nine ers.
• 35:44
  Speaker 4: Team than what we have here right now.
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: So I'm with you, like there's a reason you should
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: be nervous about this, But at the same time, it's
• 35:51
  Speaker 2: like you just have to trust the number and trust
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: Mahomes like he's just long term as a dog, he's
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: going to be profitable for us for our entire lives.
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: So yeah, if we don't this one all right, that sucks,
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: but we know long term he's gonna make us money
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: betting him in this exact spot.
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think we're gonna have about six games
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: we want to put in and this one is going
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: to be on the fence. I really believe that New
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers are now two
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: point dogs. It is ticked up since the DeVante Adams news,
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: but really the real reason here is because of Russell
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: Wilson practicing with the first team and Adam schefter saying
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: that all signs are trending towards Russell Wilson starting, which
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: clearly is not the right decision. But this is what
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: makes the ticket and money split so interesting. The ticket's
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: slightly more on the Steelers, the money decidedly on the Jets.
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: As you said, the pros are on the Jets. Like
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: I feel actually okay with this In the contest, the
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: things that worry me are the line flipping from Steelers
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: to Jets. We know that historically when that happens since
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: twenty nineteen, the team that it flipped towards that is
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: not the favorite forty two percent against the spread. Tomlin
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: is a home dog, the best coach as a home
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: dog the past twenty years a generation.
• 37:10
  Speaker 4: Loo's the greatest of all time.
• 37:11
  Speaker 3: Look at your work, But look they're missing.
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: The Steelers are missing their center, Zach Frasier, top five
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: center according to Pro Football Focus. They're missing their guard,
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: James Daniels, top guard according to Pro Football Focus. So
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: there are like factors here beyond Russell Wilson that make
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: us lean Jets.
• 37:31
  Speaker 4: We all talk too much. Sharp dudes, can just see it.
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: Yeah, but you're right, the number is moving a lot,
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: like I wouldn't mind locking this sin hopefully again one
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: and a half in our contest, because it is going
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: up to two and a half of most.
• 37:43
  Speaker 4: Books at this point.
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: And yep, you know, it looks like I'll probably hit
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: three by kickoff because it's going to be such a
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: heavily publicly back game the Jets at this point. I
• 37:52
  Speaker 2: agree with the line movement, though, I when you talk
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: about I just I think Russell Wilson's bad and I
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: don't think it's gonna work out well for him. And
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: against a really good defensive front the Jets that yeah,
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: they sugar against their run, but they're pretty damn good against.
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: The pass, and you know, and their strength is their
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: defensive tackles. And the Steelers' weakness right now is in
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: fact they're missing. They're two of the best interior alignment
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: in the NFL.
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: So it's just again, the lines were even so much.
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: I just want to grab it now because I think
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: there is still value. But you're right, it's like like
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: you're nervous about that Chiefs game. This makes me nervous
• 38:31
  Speaker 2: because it's like we're betting on one of the most
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: defunctional franchises as a favorite that has a ton of
• 38:38
  Speaker 2: drama going against a Tomlin team and what you're talking about,
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: it's like a raw ra spot pretty much. It's especially
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: if it hits three. It really is so a little
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: nerve wracking. But again, this is really a fade on
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: Russell Wilson. I just I think they're gonna put him
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: in there, he'll get demolished and then next week we
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: see Justin Fields once again. I just again, I don't
• 38:59
  Speaker 2: know why they're doing it. It's so bizarre. He's gotten
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: it to foreign too, and he's just he's looked so
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: well run the ball, and I know he hasn't been
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: the best passer, but you need a running quarterback, especially
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: behind such a bad offensive line. So I'm hoping here
• 39:12
  Speaker 2: we're taking advantage of a good number against a team
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: that's in transition right now, and it's Pittsburgh team, a.
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: Game that we both like, we can agree. I feel
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: good it'll be in the contest. Tampa Bay plus three
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: and a half. This was my exact decision on Tuesday.
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: I love Baker Mayfield against a porous, poorly ranked secondary
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: twenty first in the league in pass coverage giving up
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: two hundred and seventy five passing yards per game. By
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: the way, that's thirty first in the league, just just
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: ahead of the Jaguars. I like Videveya as an obstacle
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: for the Reson. He is the key Raven's rushing game.
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: Like that's I think that's really important. The things that
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: worry mere are the things that look not everything is
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: a clear decision, right, These are all going to be
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: fifty five to sixty percent decisions. We knowledge betting against
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson makes you uncomfortable. You're not gonna be any
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: more uncomfortable than you are betting against Patrick Mahomes, betting
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: against Josh Allen, betting against Lamar Jackson. Like it just
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: what happens, and like it's infuriating because of his mobility
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: and because of his record against the NFC. And of
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: course we were about Baker doing Baker things, but this
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: is a pro Joe split.
• 40:26
  Speaker 3: I'm sticking with the Bucks.
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: Yeah, And it's really like you said, it's it's all
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: about vit to Vey. If he can stop this whole
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: Derek Henry run, that's the key. Like he's been so
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: incredibly dominant for this Ravens team. Anytime they need a
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: big run, it feels like he gets it for him.
• 40:43
  Speaker 2: And he's been flipped. He's flipped a couple of games,
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: it seems like this season for this team.
• 40:46
  Speaker 4: So that's the big one.
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: And then, like you've talked about it, if Mike Evans
• 40:51
  Speaker 2: is back him and Godwin against the secondary, that's chef's kiss.
• 40:55
  Speaker 2: It's like this is the perfect matchup for them offensively,
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: especially Baker. You know, as bad as he played against
• 41:03
  Speaker 2: that Saint Steam with those turnovers. He had those moments
• 41:06
  Speaker 2: of brilliance where it's just like, man, his arm talent's
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: so good, and when he needs to pull it down
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: and run the ball, he's been doing it this season,
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: like when things break down, he's got no issue.
• 41:15
  Speaker 4: Running the ball.
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: So we like backing Lamar. And it's only when it's
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: under three. I mean, you talk at NASA about that trend.
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: When it's under three, I think he's what twenties four
• 41:27
  Speaker 2: and seven at this point against the spread. When it's
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: above it, we do want to fade him. And you know,
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: last week ended up as being a push of the
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: plus seven of the Commanders.
• 41:36
  Speaker 4: But you see why.
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: It's like they're even Lamar's whole career. You know, they
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: usually they used to blow teams out, but we've seen
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: the last two years games usually get a little tight,
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: they get a little close towards the end. They really
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: haven't been closing teams out like they used to, and
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: that's why they went out and got Derrick Henry to
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: try to change that and just has not worked out
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: for them this year. Right, Like every game for the
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: most part for them is are pretty damn close. So
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: you know, this is another game I mean, you're just
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: trust the number, right chat, It's like plus three and
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: a half. It's a good number for a home divisional dog,
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: or not divisional dog, but a home dog. That's like
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: still a little underrated to the general public. And I
• 42:13
  Speaker 2: don't think me and you would be shocked if they
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: pull up the upset and give Lamar's second career loss
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: to an NFC team. Right now, I believe he's twenty
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: one to one against the NFC. Pretty crazy, all right.
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: The last game that we want to talk about is
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: the Chargers at Arizona. You talked about Arizona.
• 42:32
  Speaker 4: Totally off the Giants. You know what, The Giants at all.
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: Hate him without Andrew Thomas, Like I already think that
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: offense is terrible, that offense at home is terrible, that's true,
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: But the Eagles also are a little bit better than
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: the Giants. And like Andrew Thomas, I just like I
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: worry about what this team is going to do. I think,
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: to me, that is like, look, you know, offensive line
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: everything to me when I'm thinking about evaluating this team,
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: these teams, it's why I love the Lion so much.
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: It's why I have a little more confidence about the Browns.
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: This week, You're missing the only All Pro player on
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: your team and Elik neighbors possibly, so.
• 43:16
  Speaker 4: Who want to Eagles pastual? Scares you? A thirty seven
• 43:20
  Speaker 4: year old brainding gram.
• 43:22
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: I just I'm just down on this Eagles team right now.
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: But I get where you're coming from. But yeah, if
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: people want to know where I'm man, I'm still if
• 43:29
  Speaker 2: you get the three and a half, take the three
• 43:31
  Speaker 2: and a half.
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: Let's talk about the Chargers and the Cardinals for a second,
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: because you really like this game, and you I acknowledge
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: that we had to play it. It's so tempting, but like,
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: I don't feel strongly about it. It feels like crappy.
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: So like, if you're not feeling it, I'm not feeling it.
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: We got a list here of six.
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: Well, it's just obviously i'd much rather take the bucks
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: if we're gonna take one dog on this Monday night slate,
• 43:56
  Speaker 2: I feel way more confident and I like the number better. Right,
• 43:59
  Speaker 2: We're getting a great key number. But there was a
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: minute there that they touched three for this Cardinals team
• 44:04
  Speaker 2: and I was like, holy shit, this is three and
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: a half. This is we're gonna have two Monday Night
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: three and a half dogs in our contest. Now, I
• 44:10
  Speaker 2: was like gonna be beside myself. So luckily it's come
• 44:13
  Speaker 2: back down. But the Cardinals have to be the right
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: side like them. You know, we understand that they were
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: going to struggle in that Green Bay game, but it's
• 44:23
  Speaker 2: like I told you, that's such a throwaway game with
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: all the stoppiness and the turnovers in that rain. And
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: on the flip side, this Chargers team. You know, Herbert
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: played really well against that Broncos team, but we've seen
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: this year he's been inconsistent and a lot of their
• 44:39
  Speaker 2: what they've done so well this year is run the ball,
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: and that to me is why it's like, Okay.
• 44:44
  Speaker 4: I'm with you.
• 44:45
  Speaker 2: I'm not rushing to go bet this Arizona team because
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: their defense has just been so bad for so many
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: weeks in a row right now. Like I have pretty
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: good hand on Reid on this team. Like again, they've
• 44:55
  Speaker 2: had injuries as well Aris on his defense, but man,
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: they're so bad it's it's really hard to have confidence
• 45:01
  Speaker 2: of betting this team when it's not a plus three.
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: So Arizona, if you got the plus three, that's great.
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: If not, I wouldn't bet this one yet. I'd wait
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: for it to maybe get back up the plus three
• 45:11
  Speaker 2: by kickoff.
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: All right, it's really gonna come down to the Packers
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: minus two and a half, Cleveland plus six, Detroit plus
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: one and a half, Tampa Bay plus three and a half.
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: I think we're gonna have a battle for the last
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: spot between Kansas City plus one and a half and
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: the Jets minus two. I think it's gonna be really
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: really interesting. Favorites contest reminder, everyone's lowest weekly scoring. The
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: contest has officially been dropped. Updated total scores are now
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: on the leaderboard. It's officially a race to finish for
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: our forty thousand dollars.
• 45:45
  Speaker 3: First place prize. Good Luck are Boosted money line underdog
• 45:52
  Speaker 3: Harlay moment.
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: I guess this guy can run all night.
• 45:57
  Speaker 3: And he will run three each week.
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: We give out a two team money line dog parlay
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: Bet three six five. Boost the Odds highlights it on
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: their site all weekend under both game pages.
• 46:08
  Speaker 3: Remember both games.
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: Are eligible for Bet three six fives early payout promo,
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: where you get your where your money line pick gets
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: marked as a win. If they take a seventeen point lead,
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: even if they lose. So if you want to bet this,
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: bet it at bet three sixty five.
• 46:23
  Speaker 3: This week's boosted.
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: Parlay Kansas City Chiefs Detroit Lions find the boost under
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: either Chiefs or Lions game pages at bet three six five.
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: But let's do our underdog round robin.
• 46:42
  Speaker 3: There will come up payday Halla lou yo, waa pay day.
• 46:46
  Speaker 4: There will come up payday some day. Some day, there
• 46:50
  Speaker 4: will come up payday.
• 46:51
  Speaker 2: Halla lou yo wanna payday.
• 46:54
  Speaker 3: Tire will come up payday.
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: Some day, Simon, I got some opinions, let's hear it. Well,
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: of course we'll do the Chiefs, and of course we'll do.
• 47:06
  Speaker 4: Detroit chunkiest dogs. Gotta do them.
• 47:08
  Speaker 3: Hello Detroit, Hello Detroit. Should we do the Bucks?
• 47:19
  Speaker 4: Okay? I like that. That's fun. Gotta go Browns.
• 47:22
  Speaker 3: I was gonna say, how you feel about the Browns? Yeah?
• 47:24
  Speaker 4: You got I mean, I have zero faith, but we
• 47:26
  Speaker 4: have to go. That's such a huge number.
• 47:28
  Speaker 3: It's a plus two.
• 47:30
  Speaker 4: Yeah, give me one.
• 47:32
  Speaker 2: This last one was tough because there's just a bunch
• 47:33
  Speaker 2: of ugly ones. I like, if just pure value based
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: Vegas plus two fifty seems pretty tempted. How do you
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: feel about that?
• 47:41
  Speaker 4: One.
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: I don't mind it at all, money Line, Underdog, Round Robin.
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: It's gonna be the Chiefs, it's gonna be Detroit, it's
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: gonna be the Bucks, it's gonna be the Browns, it's
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: gonna be Vegas.
• 47:51
  Speaker 3: Yeah, oh we did miss uh the Foxhole?
• 47:54
  Speaker 4: Shoot, I mean, it's got to be Detroit, right, try.
• 48:03
  Speaker 3: How is it fox Holy? Like everybody like the wise
• 48:06
  Speaker 3: guys like Detroit, not all of them.
• 48:09
  Speaker 2: That's why this number this isn't as this isn't as
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: all all in. It was more about Detroit up two
• 48:14
  Speaker 2: and a half. That's where it was like, okay, that
• 48:17
  Speaker 2: that was the professional heavy side.
• 48:18
  Speaker 3: All right, let's go with Detroit as the foxhole. Then
• 48:22
  Speaker 3: we know we're going the.
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: Only one I could think of was the Jets. But like,
• 48:26
  Speaker 2: is that really that fox Hooley either?
• 48:28
  Speaker 3: You know, it's not right. Kansas City feels more fox
• 48:31
  Speaker 3: Holy potentially to me.
• 48:32
  Speaker 4: I love that you're so weary of this Kansas City from.
• 48:34
  Speaker 3: A professional perspective, then you know.
• 48:38
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it does feel like you're doing something wrong there
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: with that one.
• 48:40
  Speaker 4: I do agree.
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: So, but let's go with Detroit. We know we're going
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: to put Detroit in the contest. Let's make it the Foxholt.
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: Let's good catch, Matt Mitchell, way to produce, Buddy, this.
• 48:50
  Speaker 3: Is a Titus.
• 48:51
  Speaker 5: This twenty twenty four team has been we found something special.
• 48:55
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 48:55
  Speaker 5: I felt it's like we're in here together.
• 48:57
  Speaker 4: Nobody's coming out of that circle.
• 48:59
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 49:00
  Speaker 5: That's exactly where you want to be right now.
• 49:02
  Speaker 3: All right, Simon, your biggest bets as we stand here Thursday.
• 49:07
  Speaker 2: Definitely Detroit, Definitely Chiefs, Like as you say it right now,
• 49:10
  Speaker 2: those are two ones I've hit. Jets, I've hit pretty heavy.
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: Bucks I'm waiting on because I'm still waiting on the
• 49:16
  Speaker 2: Mike Evans information.
• 49:18
  Speaker 4: And you know, Cleveland.
• 49:20
  Speaker 2: I wish I could have gotten more down to six
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: and a half, which I was right like, I didn't
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: really get that much. So yeah, sitting right now, it's
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: pretty chalky. Honestly, it's like I'm pretty heavy on Lions
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: at two and a half, but pretty heavy on them
• 49:32
  Speaker 2: at two stay with the Chiefs, pretty heavy at one
• 49:35
  Speaker 2: and a half. I could see by kickoff, you know, Bucks, Jets,
• 49:42
  Speaker 2: Browns all make that you know list you want to
• 49:46
  Speaker 2: do Scoot Roulette.
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: I want to do Scoots Roulett. I mean, you're gonna
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: go first, because you're crushing me right now, So go first.
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: Choose the game that I want to choose, because I
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: know you're going to take my pick, So go ahead.
• 49:57
  Speaker 4: Who would Chad want to take? I mean, I don't
• 49:59
  Speaker 4: want do bucks.
• 50:00
  Speaker 2: I don't know if that's your pick, I might just
• 50:02
  Speaker 2: keep going my my Detroit lines.
• 50:05
  Speaker 3: That's what I wanted to take.
• 50:07
  Speaker 2: All right, I'll give them to you then, Hi, thank you.
• 50:09
  Speaker 3: Listen.
• 50:10
  Speaker 5: My job is to coach what's here, and I'm going
• 50:12
  Speaker 5: to coach the hell out of them.
• 50:13
  Speaker 4: I'll go to Kansas City Chiefs.
• 50:20
  Speaker 3: You are a baller. That's amazing.
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: All right, Let's get Evan to tell us something save.
• 50:30
  Speaker 3: Us, make us feel better.
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: Evan Abrams, Director, all right, let's get Evan to tell
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: us something sa save us, make us feel better.
• 50:39
  Speaker 3: Evan Abrams, director of research. Talk to us the last
• 50:43
  Speaker 3: word with Evan Abrams. We're finished talking.
• 50:47
  Speaker 5: It's hilarious that Chad was one way on Kansas City.
• 50:50
  Speaker 5: Simon just brought it all the way back. And I'm
• 50:51
  Speaker 5: gonna start with Kansas City because we figured you guys
• 50:53
  Speaker 5: were going there anyway. Here's maybe an angle you haven't heard,
• 50:56
  Speaker 5: so I kind of put a few things together here.
• 50:58
  Speaker 5: So last decade, Andy Reid has been a dog off
• 51:00
  Speaker 5: of by four times, four and oh straight up, four
• 51:03
  Speaker 5: and oh against the spread in his career.
• 51:04
  Speaker 4: Here that Chad say it again one more time, Evan.
• 51:07
  Speaker 5: It's four and oh three up and against the spread.
• 51:08
  Speaker 5: But that's just that last decade. So in his career
• 51:11
  Speaker 5: he's seven and two straight up in eight and one
• 51:12
  Speaker 5: against the number. Oh my god, terrible. But his two
• 51:15
  Speaker 5: losses if you think the other side is difficult, his
• 51:17
  Speaker 5: two losses are to Peyton Manning and twenty thirteen and
• 51:20
  Speaker 5: Tom Brady in the Super Bowl. Real difficult there. Here's
• 51:22
  Speaker 5: the one that I thought was just ridiculous. So Kansas
• 51:24
  Speaker 5: City has gone sixteen straight regular season games without winning
• 51:27
  Speaker 5: the turnover margin. They're eleven and five in those games,
• 51:30
  Speaker 5: so they win no matter what. And maybe if you
• 51:32
  Speaker 5: get lucky, they get a few turnovers in this one.
• 51:35
  Speaker 5: All right, let's go to Tampa Bay. To me, this
• 51:37
  Speaker 5: bet is all about the number strictly. Even after a
• 51:39
  Speaker 5: twelve and oh ats run for road favorites the last
• 51:41
  Speaker 5: two weeks, road favorites of three and a half or
• 51:44
  Speaker 5: more are still just forty five percent. Since twenty twenty.
• 51:47
  Speaker 5: Here's the fun one. Lamar is five and nine as
• 51:50
  Speaker 5: a road favorite of three and a half for more
• 51:52
  Speaker 5: since twenty twenty. Here are the worst five quarterbacks ats
• 51:55
  Speaker 5: in that spot in that span. Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson,
• 51:59
  Speaker 5: Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady. This is not an
• 52:02
  Speaker 5: easy spot for anybody, So play the number here and then.
• 52:06
  Speaker 5: I wasn't gonna do this, but I'll give you one
• 52:08
  Speaker 5: quick thing on Buffalo because I thought you guys earlier
• 52:11
  Speaker 5: in the week were maybe leaning on laying the number.
• 52:13
  Speaker 5: It's gotten up to nine, nine and a half, but
• 52:15
  Speaker 5: it's worth repeating. We've said it on the show before.
• 52:17
  Speaker 5: Alan has seventy two wins in his career. Fifty one
• 52:20
  Speaker 5: or seventy percent of those have all been by seven
• 52:22
  Speaker 5: points or more when the line six or more. He's
• 52:25
  Speaker 5: actually been in that spot forty two times, and of
• 52:27
  Speaker 5: those forty two, he's only lost eight in that scenario.
• 52:33
  Speaker 5: He usually does push the number up, and I tweeted
• 52:36
  Speaker 5: this early in the week. Will Levis one hundred and
• 52:38
  Speaker 5: fifty eight quarterbacks have started ten games in the last
• 52:40
  Speaker 5: twenty years. He's two and twelve against a second half spread.
• 52:44
  Speaker 5: So even if it's close at the half, he is
• 52:46
  Speaker 5: two and twelve second half ats in his career, and
• 52:50
  Speaker 5: outside of Monday Night Football where he's two and zero,
• 52:52
  Speaker 5: he is oh in twelve second half ats. So even
• 52:56
  Speaker 5: if it's close, you should be able to find a
• 52:58
  Speaker 5: way to get a pick six.
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: There, guys, I mean, those are great, Evan, and I
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: think the tragedy is really that Will Levis's had two
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: games on Monday Night Football.
• 53:05
  Speaker 4: That's also true.
• 53:06
  Speaker 5: I think of beating the Dolphins. I think the Dolphins
• 53:08
  Speaker 5: at this.
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: Point in his career, it's bills are nothing like bills
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: buy a million. Sorry Matt Mitchell, we might have just
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: mushed it, but it is what it is. As a reminder,
• 53:17
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• 53:55
  Speaker 3: Simon and I will.
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: Return with our next exciting episode. One of the favorites
• 54:00
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• 54:03
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