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Will China Invade Taiwan? Market Impact, Tensions & The Semiconductor Race · Earn Your Leisure

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  Speaker 3: Taiwan and this is a country that we talked about
• 1:40
  Speaker 3: a lot, Taiwan Semiconductor, one of the most important companies
• 1:44
  Speaker 3: on the stock market, a company that has done very well,
• 1:47
  Speaker 3: and know it's in a lot of people's portfolio.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: You're welcome. Will this push.
• 1:53
  Speaker 3: China over the edge and take in Taiwan? And Taiwan
• 1:58
  Speaker 3: Semiconductor is the a threat for t s M even higher. Now,
• 2:05
  Speaker 3: is there a time frame will win? You're saying this year, well,
• 2:09
  Speaker 3: he said this, he said this year, Okay, ahead, I
• 2:17
  Speaker 3: was gonna say.
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: My answer is no, I don't think they they take
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: it over this year. I feel like the country, the country,
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: they're not going to take over the Taiwan And when
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: you hear him speak, it almost seems like he's speaking inevitably,
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: like at some point that is going to happen. I
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: don't think it's now. I think in terms of war, right,
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: this would create war. You don't tell the enemy or
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: the proposed land that we're coming to take you over.
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: Trump did it with Venezuela.
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: The dancer put them over the top. I think the
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: dance on the ground. But yeah, I think war war
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  Speaker 2: here is the last resort. And because of the importance
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: of what Taiwan semi conductor means to the world economy,
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: including China's economy, Well now we.
• 3:05
  Speaker 3: See what you don't got to go to war, though
• 3:06
  Speaker 3: you could just do they this finished whale thing.
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: Well no, well for them because just because of you're
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: talking about taking over the entire country, they went to
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: go take the president right like.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: Trump say, Trump saying we're gonna going to run the country.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: This is what he does. What Trump said.
• 3:22
  Speaker 4: What I'm saying for for for Taiwan is it's a
• 3:24
  Speaker 4: little bit more.
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: He's going to do that remote the person they want.
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: They don't necessarily want to obviously they want to take
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: the land, but the most important asset is that company.
• 3:34
  Speaker 3: But it's not just that though, but it's the most important.
• 3:36
  Speaker 3: But they want they wanted the country. They wanted Taiwan
• 3:38
  Speaker 3: before long time.
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  Speaker 5: For what's the number one what's the most important asset
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  Speaker 5: right now? But I'm saying this Taiwan goes predates TSM.
• 3:47
  Speaker 5: I know that, but I'm saying number one ascid they
• 3:48
  Speaker 5: have is TSM. Why is that so important?
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  Speaker 2: Because the future of the world's economy relies on semi conductors,
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: relies on ai is the race that they want to win.
• 3:57
  Speaker 4: They feel like they have to win. That's the most important.
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  Speaker 2: Piece when talking about ninety percent of the world's semiconductors
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: being manufactured from a company. That's a piece that we
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: have to have and it's right there for us to take.
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: It won't be an easy invasion. In fact, I think
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  Speaker 2: was it two months ago Wall Street Journal put it
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: out how they could do it.
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  Speaker 4: I'm like, this is interesting.
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  Speaker 2: Why are we putting this out in November about how
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: it could be done and how it wouldn't be an
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: easy process.
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  Speaker 4: I don't think it happens.
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  Speaker 2: Number One, again, it's strategically to say it out loud
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: and to try to go ahead and do it. I
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: don't think that would be the way that historically how
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: China has done things right. I think they look at
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  Speaker 2: the long term vision of where the country wants to be,
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: and they know where they need to be right, and
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: so having TSM crumble would hurt not just our economy,
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: it hurt theirs too. You still need that, right, even
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: though there's been reports of Nvidio chips getting smuggled in
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: and those were manufactured, bout teach them. You still need
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: that company to function to make sure that you don't
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: fall as well.
• 4:56
  Speaker 4: Right, that's like cutting off your nose, right.
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: Use the word crumble with it. They don't. I don't
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: think the plan is the crumble. The plans take it over.
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: But so inside of that that that company, there's a
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: kill switch, right, So you can't just come into that
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: space and say like we're going to invade and we're
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: going to take over this company and it's going to
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: be run.
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  Speaker 4: There's a kill switch.
• 5:13
  Speaker 3: Unless you have people on the inside. And Aula inside China,
• 5:19
  Speaker 3: they got inside me.
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: They've tried it. They've tried it a bunch of times,
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  Speaker 2: and they're still trying. It's been toward it They tried
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: it in the Netherlands with ASML, They've tried it with
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: Taiwan Semi Conducted. They actually got this a guy they're
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: trying to bring back from China. They're trying to say, like, yo,
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: we need him extra dried back because he left Taiwan
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  Speaker 2: Semi Conductor to try to give away the secrets of
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  Speaker 2: how they were manufacturing, how they were using the machines
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: to manufacture. So they've tried it, they're still trying it,
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: but that company is still so important. It's still so important.
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  Speaker 2: Like you can, like I said, when you take apart
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: a GPU or you break.
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  Speaker 1: Down one of the machines.
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  Speaker 2: It's not something that's like, hey, we can put this
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: back together. There's certain details, there's certain intricacies that only
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: this company is going to be able to do right.
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: And this is why the investment inside the United States
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: was strategics right. It wasn't just by accident that yeah,
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: we want you to put fabs here. You know what
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: you did one here, come now we need three of them.
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: They understood the geopolitical issues that were at hand. I
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: don't I don't think they invade this year. I think
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: they look long term at some point, they will try
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: to seize it. But by that time I think the
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: fabs will be throughout the world and the impact.
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: Won't be as great.
• 6:23
  Speaker 3: But everybody's from Jensen's from Taiwan, and his cousin who's
• 6:28
  Speaker 3: the CEO of AMD, she's from Taiwan.
• 6:32
  Speaker 4: The American citizens.
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: True.
• 6:35
  Speaker 6: But but I'm gonna rap up both points because here's
• 6:38
  Speaker 6: was really important. Forty of US GDP last year came
• 6:42
  Speaker 6: from forty two tech stocks in around centered around and
• 6:45
  Speaker 6: video open AI. But the key cornerstone point and that
• 6:51
  Speaker 6: TSM is responsible for twenty percent of that. So China
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  Speaker 6: feels as if this is the point Rashad is making
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  Speaker 6: because that province was taken away from US. You took
• 7:02
  Speaker 6: away our chance to be the number one global leader anyway.
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  Speaker 6: Is there a kill switching there?
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  Speaker 1: Yes?
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  Speaker 6: Are there some reports of some espionage going on in case?
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: Highly likely.
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  Speaker 6: So it's a global war and a tech war. But
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  Speaker 6: you took our most precious gym of a country and
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  Speaker 6: the tech americanized it because without the AI trade, we
• 7:29
  Speaker 6: would have underperformed Europe. Not no one's really talking about that, like.
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: That's not fair, that's not fair, only because it wasn't tech. Right,
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  Speaker 2: it was manufacturing first, right, nobody manufacturers right, Like we
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: grew up in that era where you got your sneakers
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: like made in Taiwan. Right, ai is a new newer
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: thing because of and that was an American mistake, right,
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: like for sure, right like they Intel dropped the exactly
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: dropped the ball on their engineer who then went through
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: Taiwan to create Taiwan Semiconductor now and from eighty eight
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: on now like wait, yeah, they have a gem there
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: now it makes sense.
• 8:03
  Speaker 4: Of course you would want that land back, of course
• 8:05
  Speaker 4: you would.
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  Speaker 2: And once you saw the technology that's there, of course,
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: and you see where the futures sad, of course you
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: want it back.
• 8:11
  Speaker 4: I just don't think they're taking it back.
• 8:13
  Speaker 6: And I don't think he'll do it this year. But
• 8:16
  Speaker 6: if something were to happen in twenty seven, for my
• 8:19
  Speaker 6: for my accounts, say, old baby, and if something happens
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  Speaker 6: in twenty seven, he's not going to start the war.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: But if the war gets started, he't gonna finish it.
• 8:31
  Speaker 4: He's going we can't now, Old Jose said, we can't
• 8:33
  Speaker 4: have to happen. We just can't have to happen.
• 8:36
  Speaker 6: Is that a kill switch? Yes, but is there some
• 8:39
  Speaker 6: we are seeing high level war games like the Venezuela thing.
• 8:43
  Speaker 6: That's the entry, that's the kindergarten level of its interesting happening.
• 8:48
  Speaker 4: Us they take the president of Venezuela.
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: It doesn't automatically warrant a response from China.
• 8:56
  Speaker 4: Right, Yes, we want you to send them back. That
• 8:58
  Speaker 4: was an illegal act of war.
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: If they invade or tried to invade Taiwan, that's.
• 9:04
  Speaker 6: Gonnabate us to immediate Sometimes you got to throw the
• 9:11
  Speaker 6: snowball in your get them. Yeah, come on, what you
• 9:14
  Speaker 6: wanna do?
• 9:16
  Speaker 4: Nah, that's gonna be an immediate response. Now, this is
• 9:19
  Speaker 4: that's war.
• 9:19
  Speaker 3: Well maybe not, maybe not immediate response because the New
• 9:22
  Speaker 3: York Times, which is a pretty credible organization, they had
• 9:25
  Speaker 3: a they put out a whole thing of how America
• 9:27
  Speaker 3: cannot beat China in the Wall War, and they said
• 9:30
  Speaker 3: the Pentagon went through twenty different war simulations in law
• 9:33
  Speaker 3: that every time. So if you know you can't beat
• 9:36
  Speaker 3: somebody all, it takes somebody to actually call your bluff.
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: That's all fair and fun and games, right, But the
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: reality is this you're talking about in video, you're talking
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: about Apple, you're talking about Microsoft, you're talking about Brocon,
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: you're talking about Meta all your your major companies catastrophe, Nona,
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: you can't let it happen.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: You mean us being involved in a one.
• 10:00
  Speaker 4: If we don't get involved, that's what's at risk.
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: Or what if they get us involved?
• 10:05
  Speaker 6: To expose the lack of book management and Ponzi that's
• 10:10
  Speaker 6: been going on in the country. That's a bunch of
• 10:12
  Speaker 6: ways to from those companies to overall market. Okay, overall market,
• 10:18
  Speaker 6: not those companies. Those are even a hyper concentration.
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: For sure, you know what I'm saying, can't risk it.
• 10:27
  Speaker 6: But ten stocks account for thirty five percent of US
• 10:30
  Speaker 6: market value, and I'm a pro hyper concentration person. That's
• 10:35
  Speaker 6: too much fucking concentration. We've never seen. We haven't had
• 10:39
  Speaker 6: a Santa Claus rally in three years. What that spells
• 10:42
  Speaker 6: off for those you are watching there is gross mismanagement
• 10:47
  Speaker 6: and corruption like we've never seen. That's interesting for every
• 10:52
  Speaker 6: hedge fund, pension fund, fund of fund, p e v E,
• 10:56
  Speaker 6: A VC angel to put all of their chips in
• 11:00
  Speaker 6: to ten when there's four or five thousand and the
• 11:04
  Speaker 6: thing that's not talked about it since the eighties, we
• 11:07
  Speaker 6: have probably two or three thousand companies that have been
• 11:09
  Speaker 6: delisted and have never come back. So we have a contraction,
• 11:13
  Speaker 6: and now we have all this hype of concentration in
• 11:15
  Speaker 6: why because there's gross mismanagement somewhere.
• 11:19
  Speaker 4: Do you do you think the hyper concentration gets better
• 11:21
  Speaker 4: in twenty six.
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: Or probably I think it's gonna increase. It's gonna get worse.
• 11:27
  Speaker 4: It's gonna be worse.
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: It's gonna get worse.
• 11:31
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