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125: What Everyone in Agriculture Needs to Know About This Weather Pattern with Gary Lezak · CattleUSA Daily

• 0:00
  Welcome to another episode of the Kettle USA Daily podcast.
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  Today we are welcoming back Gary Lezak with the Weather 2020 team
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  and we are talking all things weather today.
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  You guys know the drill at this point.
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  Fridays we are talking weather with Gary.
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  So today we are talking all things the Weather 2020
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  dashboard global predictor, what we are seeing for the rest of
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  this next month, August and July.
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  Gary mentions they kind of are are our wild card months as far
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  as predictions go. And so he discusses that a
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  little bit. And then we go into what we are
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  going to be seeing for fall harvest and just fall calving
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  season, what we can anticipate and expect over the next few
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  months. So without further ado, let's go
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  ahead and hop into this episode with Gary.
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  Welcome to the Cattle USA Daily podcast, your go to source for
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  the latest livestock markets, industry insights and the
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  updates shaping agriculture today.
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  I'm your host, Lauren Moylan, a passionate advocate for
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  agriculture here to keep you informed and connected.
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  Now let's dive into today's episode.
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  Good morning. Good morning.
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  How are you? Fantastic.
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  I hope you're doing great. How are you doing?
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  I'm doing phenomenal. It is a gorgeous day here in
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  Kansas, maybe a little bit on the warm side, but it's still
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  gorgeous nonetheless. We're in the blue skies.
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  I'm I'm loving it. I'm.
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  Loving the blue sky part of the pattern starts right now.
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  Right now, yeah. So this is airing on Friday.
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  So this is actually this three day stretch.
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  High pressure is building in, cooler air is spreading across.
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  If you remember earlier this summer, 40 days ago or so, we
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  had thunderstorms and then all of a sudden it was dry.
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  Some areas were too dry. And if 80 days ago, 2 seconds
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  ago, they were too dry, but it was cool.
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  Yeah. It's one thing to be dry and
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  hot. It's nothing to be dry and cool
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  because now after all the rain we've had, this is going to be
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  great for the corn, the soybeans, for all the crops out
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  there and in the world. Cattle, USA, you know, cattle
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  producers, they're told to rely on seasonal climate outlets, but
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  we get specifics. So they're not used to getting a
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  week by week analysis that we can do through our dashboard and
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  and through through the global predictor.
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  And so while they give you 30 to 90 day outlets that are broad,
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  we give you specifics and we allow it allows us to really get
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  into like for cattle, I don't know are they, do they call them
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  grazing rotations? Is that what they call them?
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  Yeah. That's actually the correct
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  terminology there. So if you could do.
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  If people like rotational graze is what it's called, it's one of
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  the Land Management practices, so.
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  And you know, the, the, the haze storage and, and everything is
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  like, you know, it's really been ideal conditions and, and we
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  predicted it. I mean, if you've been listening
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  to this podcast from the beginning, a few months ago
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  through this whole season, we asked, is there going to be a
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  drought? And we talked about droughts are
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  either shrinking or growing. This one was shrinking,
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  shrinking soon as we got in the spring.
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  It's it was shrinking all winter and it's and continue to shrink.
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  And just when you thought there may be a drug development boom,
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  it rains. And it's been, I don't think, I
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  think, I think, I think almost, I'd say 90% of the agriculture
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  built from Eastern Colorado to Ohio and for North Dakota down
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  to Texas, 90% has now had timely rain, significant rain,
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  occasional drought stress. And once you have the drought
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  stress, it, it ends by having the timely rains.
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  And The thing is, it's not just happening now for the first time
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  ever, you can plan and prepare for it.
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  That's what Weather 2020 is doing.
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  And any farmers who have noticed that out there, I would love to
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  hear some feedback from them to to get some testimonials because
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  I'm not just saying this. I know this has just happened
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  and it's the fourth year in a row we have predicted the
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  agricultural belt, the corn yield predictions basically
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  almost. But it's the fourth year in a
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  row we've gotten the forecast right for farmers.
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  And this includes one of those years that was a drought that
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  would be likely and it was not going to end about four years
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  ago. We predicted that.
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  So what is next year going to be?
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  The exciting thing is 2 months from right now it's it's July.
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  It's August 1st on when when this comes out?
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  When? This comes out, yeah.
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  So two months from today, on October 1st, the new LRC will be
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  just about starting. The pattern we're in now is
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  fading away. The new pattern begins and we'll
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  talk about that, but we'll take you through that.
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  It's just so exciting. Yes, it is very exciting and
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  it's just been so fun over the past, gosh, however many months
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  you and I have been doing these episodes, I need to go back to
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  our first one and see actually when we started so that we know
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  when, how long we've been doing it.
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  But it's been a long time. We've been we've been chatting
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  every Friday for a really long time.
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  Well, I guess now we're on Wednesdays, but whatever, every
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  single week for a really long time now and talking about these
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  things. And it's so fun to be able to
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  see it come to fruition, even if it's not exactly how we want it
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  to come to fruition. I mean, this year has been
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  great. We've been loving the timely
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  rains and everything like that and the shrinking drought that
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  we were discussing. And it's fun to be able to sit
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  back and say this is what we talked about and see it come
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  into fruition. And then sit here now at the
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  like start of August, end of July, and be able to talk about
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  fall and what is going to be happening there.
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  And as people prepare for harvest and fall calving and
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  everything like that, what, what is that looking like for
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  everyone? It's just it's really fun to be
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  able to sit back and do that. And what's amazing is that it's
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  the same pattern. That's the whole thing that
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  remember what the LRC is. If you're new to this or you're
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  hearing it for the third time or fifth time or 10th time, the
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  reason I'm going to tell you another 100 times is because
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  it's a discovery, a discovery in science, a scientific discovery
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  that we are studying and learning.
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  And it has, it's backed by 75 to 80 years of research.
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  Back in, in the 1940's, the meteorologist name was Jerome
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  Namayas. You can look him up and read
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  about the index cycle. He almost had my, my, the LRC
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  almost had my whole hypothesis and the, the whole discovery
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  that I've made. He discovered that in November,
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  there's enough information to predict the following winter.
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  Ding, Ding, Ding, the weather branch that's up in October,
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  November, that's cycle 1 and it is predicting what's going to
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  happen from then on. You just have to know what
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  exactly it is. 2 he said. Anchor ridges and anchor troughs
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  develop. This is where Storm Sisters
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  reach their peak strength. Moreland so often anchor troughs
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  and where storm systems aren't as frequent and they're weaker,
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  usually near anchor ridges. Now near an anchorage you might
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  get 5 or 6 storm systems and near an anchor through you might
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  get 12. And near an anchorage, one of
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  those 5 or 6 could be real powerful, but the others won't
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  be and you'll struggle for moisture.
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  And in the near the anchor troughs, you might get the 11:50
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  storm systems and a few of them will be stronger.
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  And it's more likely to be wet and stormy.
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  So Ding, Ding, Ding. Jerome Reliance discovers this
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  in the Nice. And then he said this thing
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  called the index cycle, he called the index cycle sets up
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  and it lasts a few weeks at a time.
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  And Ding, Ding, Ding, the LRC, this year's cycle is about 41
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  days, about six weeks. Last year was about 6 1/2 weeks.
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  The year before that was more than seven weeks.
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  There was even a cycle length almost 9 weeks long about four
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  years ago. What will next year be?
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  But what Jerome Domaias never, ever put over the top, and
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  that's what the LRC is, is that it's not just anchor troughs,
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  anchor ridges form. It's not that an index cycle
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  sets up. This year's cycle is about 41
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  days, 38 to 44 days and oscillating.
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  It's that entire cycle repeats over and over and over again.
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  And that's how we're able to predict the weather.
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  All right. So some people think it's just
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  coincidence when, you know, a place gets a flood and then they
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  get another flood six weeks later.
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  It's not. It's predictable and that's what
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  we do. 1000% and it's phenomenal to be able to see.
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  It feels like something that's so obvious, yet it's not like
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  there's a lot of science. There's a lot of everything that
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  goes behind it. And it's fun to be able to sit
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  here and we could not do this podcast for four weeks.
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  And I would still be like, oh, we're in the blue skies part of
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  the pattern. Oh, we're in the XYZ part of the
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  pattern. Oh, we're in the city Blizzard,
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  part of the pattern. That's what we're in.
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  That's what we're just coming out of.
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  Oh, my goodness. No, there's no doubt about it.
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  In fact, earlier this morning, Jeff Penner might mean you're
• 9:56
  all just best friend that I'm not in 1992 and he's married to
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  his wife Edie. And the reason he's married to
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  his wife Edie is because Andy my partner introduced Edie to Jeff
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  because Edie's brother happened to be Andy's best friend.
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  And it's a whole long story that we're not going to talk about
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  today. But that is some interesting
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  details anyway. Jeff and Edie have a wonderful
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  son scholar, but Jeff Penner, I'm telling the back story on
• 10:25
  Jeff Penner for some reason, but he is an amazing guy and and
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  he's really my best friend. So but he'll call me in a little
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  while after he wakes up this morning and we're going to talk
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  about the global predictor because I know I posted it.
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  So I went back and looked at one of my ex posts how I'm sure I
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  put it on Facebook too and on blue sky probably also, but most
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  likely on the X post. I found it this morning.
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  It was the prediction for July. And remember the global
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  predictor, when you see these predictions, they literally are
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  stemming from last October and November.
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  So now when you get a forecast for July on June 1st, it looks
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  like a 2 month forecast or a one month forecast, but it's really
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  a six month forecast. And so I went to look what did
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  it have at the end of July because I remember, I think I
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  even showed it on TV when I was filling in, it shows low 80s at
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  the end of July and that's the hottest time of the year.
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  And it had 90s earlier. And I was like, I got to go back
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  and find that chart that I posted and there it was, Kansas
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  City, 81° for the high temperature July 31st.
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  And right now it looks like it's going to be 7578°.
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  So the Global Predictor which uses the LRC was accurate and
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  that's another two of you guys going to have for very
• 11:56
  inexpensive that's just $5.99 a month.
• 11:59
  So go download that today, go just go to your App Store, get
• 12:03
  the pro version and you'll get Christmas forecast right now.
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  Yes. And Speaking of fall and winter,
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  what are what are our thoughts as we go into the next few
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  months? As we look for looking to
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  harvest the same weather patterns going to continue.
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  We're in the eighth cycle of this year's pattern, the 9th
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  cycle. Think about it, when you have a
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  41 day cycle, 40 day cycle, 9 * 40 is 36.
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  So you know, 9 * 4, three 160, there's 365 days in a year.
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  So there's like literally room for 9 full cycles.
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  We're going to go into the 9th cycle.
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  As we get closer to September, there were one hurricanes are
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  going to start happening. We're going into about the next
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  two to three weeks stretch where there should be two to four
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  named storms. One will target the central Gulf
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  of Mexico, which means, watch out Texas and Louisiana.
• 13:03
  One will target Florida. One will target the Carolinas.
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  But there's about four of our targets that are due in the next
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  three weeks. The computer models are still
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  not showing much. So in quiet hurricane seasons,
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  maybe my predictions turn out to be just spinning areas of
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  thunderstorms that don't form into anything.
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  Let's hope that's the case. I don't think so.
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  We're predicting these four systems here in the next one
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  month, so the very quiet hurricane season is likely about
• 13:33
  to suddenly become active, but we'll see how that sets up.
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  But as we go into harvest and we go into the 9th cycle, the same
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  weather pattern is going to produce similar results.
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  August and July for that matter are usually wild cards, July
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  just producing a lot of rain. August is usually a little bit
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  different than July. It's in a different phase of the
• 13:55
  cycle, but we still see more good chances of rain and
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  thunderstorms after this high pressure.
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  He moves away in the cooler air, fades away again.
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  We'll get right back into that Ring of Fire chance.
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  Thunderstorms in August as well. And then and then when we get to
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  September, the jet stream starts shifting South and strengthening
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  and our models predicting a very wet end of September and still
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  chances of rain earlier in September.
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  So you should continue to get timely rains.
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  And when it gets to harvest, we'll talk more about the week
• 14:27
  by week analysis maybe in next week's report.
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  So we can see which weeks. Yeah, we'll harvest last in
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  October. It it could could be a big there
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  could be too wet in some areas for a little while.
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  Good to know, Good to know. Any other highlights that we
• 14:44
  need to head on today, Gary? No, just enjoy your life, have a
• 14:49
  great day. Just don't take things
• 14:52
  personally for agreements. Don't make assumptions.
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  My gosh, my partner Andy thinks he's going to get fired from his
• 14:59
  job because he wrote his boss an e-mail.
• 15:04
  Just ask him a question. But he hasn't written back.
• 15:06
  So when the boss doesn't write back, he goes he's going to fire
• 15:08
  me. And no he's not.
• 15:09
  It's an assumption. Never.
• 15:11
  When he's not going to fire him and he's a superstar at his job,
• 15:15
  really, he's doing amazing. But that's what goes through
• 15:17
  people's heads. When you make assumptions, then
• 15:20
  you're miserable. If you don't make an assumption,
• 15:25
  even good or bad, OK, you're it's called suffering.
• 15:29
  Suffering is a natural thing that we do.
• 15:31
  But if you don't make assumptions, you'll suffer less
• 15:34
  percent. For those O GS listening to
• 15:37
  this, Gary and I talked about that like four or five months
• 15:41
  ago now we talked about what is it called.
• 15:44
  It's the four agreements by Don Miguel Ruins.
• 15:47
  Yes, the four agreements. It's a book.
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  Go read it, it's wonderful. Yeah, what we could, we could
• 15:52
  spend a whole segment on that, but just know what they are.
• 15:55
  Be impeccable with your word, which is the first one.
• 15:58
  If you do that one agreement, you'll ultimately start to feel
• 16:04
  really great about things because about yourself.
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  But everybody be impeccable means without sin.
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  Without sin means don't lie. That's really what it means.
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  Don't lie to yourself and don't lie to others.
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  And then don't make assumptions. Don't think this personally have
• 16:19
  a problem with that. And always be your best.
• 16:24
  If you have 102 fever, your best might not be so good today, but
• 16:28
  if you still did your best, you can sleep at night because you
• 16:31
  did your best. And I kind of think of a better
• 16:33
  way to round out our podcast today and just a little life
• 16:37
  motivation for everyone. And a reminder, Gary and I
• 16:41
  talked a lot about the Global Predictor, the Weather 2020
• 16:43
  dashboard today. Make sure you head down to the
• 16:46
  show notes down below. I have the link for the Global
• 16:49
  Predictor app where you can go and get that in your App Store.
• 16:52
  Get the pro version. It's literally $5 a month.
• 16:54
  That is less than a coffee from a gas station most times these
• 16:57
  days. So go get that app, you will
• 17:00
  thank yourself later. And then the weather 2020
• 17:03
  dashboard. We have an exclusive Cattle USA
• 17:05
  partnership link linked down below for you guys as well with
• 17:08
  a discount on that. So make sure you go check out
• 17:10
  all of those things. And if you love Gary as much as
• 17:13
  everyone else does, I've also got all of Gary's social media
• 17:16
  links down there. So his ex, his Facebook, all the
• 17:19
  things so you can keep up to date with all of the most recent
• 17:22
  weather predictions and things that are going on in the world.
• 17:26
  So Gary, thank you for your time as always and to all of you
• 17:29
  listeners out there, we will catch you all next time on
• 17:31
  another episode. Have a good weekend y'all.