Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 464 - 2/27/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

Transcript

Episode 464 - 2/27/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:01
  54321 All systems Go with Josh Applebaum starts now.
• 0:14
  Hello and welcome to episode 464 of the All Systems.
• 0:19
  Go sports betting podcast. Powered by rhythm, I am your
• 0:23
  host Josh. Applebaum.
• 0:30
  What's going on, everyone? Happy Friday.
• 0:32
  Another day here in the arena. Guys, but it's a special day cuz
• 0:36
  it's fade the. Public Friday.
• 0:37
  That's right. Last day of the week?
• 0:39
  Last day or second to last? Day, I guess in the month of
• 0:42
  February. So next time I see.
• 0:43
  You guys, it'll officially be. March so very much looking.
• 0:47
  Forward to. The next month ahead.
• 0:50
  Again, I've been. Saying it but I.
• 0:51
  Think it's it's worthy of? Getting excited about.
• 0:53
  Conference tournaments. March Madness.
• 0:55
  Major League Baseball. Pretty soon you're going to get
• 0:58
  a, you know, NHLNBA. Playoffs we're going to be.
• 1:01
  Be able to bet. On the NFL Draft in.
• 1:02
  April, so a great time of. Year to be.
• 1:04
  In the sports betting arena, making.
• 1:06
  Data-driven, sharp, contrarian plays.
• 1:09
  Now looking toward today guys, they do have another. 3 pack of
• 1:11
  sweats for you. What's interesting here is that.
• 1:14
  Two of the games. Are.
• 1:16
  Very very obscure low bet overlooked games with sharp line
• 1:19
  moves which we love to bet on. And then the other game.
• 1:23
  Is the most heavily back game of the.
• 1:24
  Night and. Boy, are we going to put our
• 1:26
  hot. Streak to the test because.
• 1:27
  This line looks. Fishy.
• 1:29
  It makes no sense. And we're betting.
• 1:30
  Against one of the best. Teams in all of college.
• 1:33
  Basketball. But we're doing it because
• 1:34
  there's data. Yeah, there's numbers behind it
• 1:37
  and a reason to to do it so. Once again, 3 pack.
• 1:40
  You guys know the drill. Let's try to go 2.
• 1:41
  And one. Eek out a winning day.
• 1:44
  Now looking back toward yesterday, Guys 3 and O.
• 1:46
  Plus 2.24. Units, so bust out the brooms.
• 1:49
  You love to see it. And it was.
• 1:51
  Actually kind of funny because. You know I'm looking.
• 1:53
  Back at the last few days here. We had a three and OA 2:00 and
• 1:56
  1:00 and then a three and O and. It was funny because.
• 1:59
  My my buddy on. Twitter Mr. Buddy.
• 2:02
  Johnson, he was like, hey, if not for Chris Beard and the
• 2:05
  awful Ole Miss Rebels, they're screwing, screwing us over.
• 2:08
  At the end of regulation. And the first overtime.
• 2:11
  We could have a. 9 and O. Going right now, but either way
• 2:13
  I'll take an 8:00 and 1:00. But three and O + 2. .24 units.
• 2:17
  Tells me we got. Our finger.
• 2:18
  On the Pulse, all three tiny little matchups went our way.
• 2:22
  You. Talked.
• 2:23
  Tech getting it done, Drexel. And Wagner.
• 2:26
  So again, doesn't matter if. It's Kentucky.
• 2:28
  Doesn't matter if. It's UNC Duke.
• 2:30
  Again, we can. Cash in the small little.
• 2:32
  Bet game or a big heavily bet? Game, but it doesn't matter.
• 2:36
  As long as we can get some winners here, which is always
• 2:38
  the goal. Now I just want to mention
• 2:39
  because. It's a Friday.
• 2:40
  First off, I want. To thank everyone for tuning in
• 2:43
  last night to The Rhythm. Rundown had a really fun show
• 2:45
  with my buddy Kate Harper nailed our our 3 plays that we talked
• 2:49
  about Drexel Wagner and Utah tech and then want to give a.
• 2:52
  Shout out to Kade because. He really liked the Michigan
• 2:54
  State. Purdue over, there's a ton.
• 2:57
  Of Steam I think. Kade got over 130. 9:00 in the
• 2:59
  afternoon. I'm closing like 144.
• 3:02
  But there was a good. Sharp steam move to the.
• 3:03
  Over there was some. Really good bet.
• 3:05
  Splits to the over at both DraftKings and in particular
• 3:07
  Circa. But then also rhythm, and This
• 3:10
  is why you got to tune into the rhythm rundown guys, if you're.
• 3:12
  Looking for more? Plays Rhythm had two Green Star
• 3:15
  recommended plays on the over and they predicted.
• 3:17
  I think like 140. 6 and ended up 1. 50 so maybe you.
• 3:21
  Added a nice winner there. Thanks to our buddy Mr. Kate
• 3:24
  Harper, but. Just a reminder every Thursday.
• 3:27
  6:00 PM Eastern Time. We are going to be hosting the
• 3:30
  Rhythm Rundown myself. In Cade.
• 3:32
  And that's what we do. We go.
• 3:33
  Through all the games. Try to help people utilize.
• 3:35
  Rhythm to their advantage. And I want to give a shout out
• 3:37
  to to my buddy on Twitter. Only under score locks Loxs he
• 3:43
  was. Asking me kind of the.
• 3:44
  The way I approach games I try to explain every day on the pod,
• 3:47
  but the the clips of those version is I start with line
• 3:50
  movement. Compare the opening.
• 3:51
  Column of the current boom, look for lines that have moved, then
• 3:54
  I. Gravitate toward bet splits.
• 3:56
  Ideally, I'm trying to be. Against the public at
• 3:58
  DraftKings. Low bets, higher dollars.
• 4:00
  And with the sharp. Money at Circa.
• 4:02
  Then I'm going to look at what Ken Palm has.
• 4:04
  Predicted for the game. What rhythm has?
• 4:06
  What Juice Reel has and. Then put it all together there
• 4:09
  and try to make the smartest bet that we can.
• 4:10
  But. That just was a question.
• 4:13
  In terms of in. Particular like using rhythm.
• 4:15
  Well, the Thursday night show, that's how we're.
• 4:17
  Going to go. Over all this stuff and.
• 4:18
  Help you guys hopefully cash some tickets.
• 4:20
  So if you have tuned. Into all of them or you just
• 4:22
  started tuning in or you haven't done any of them yet?
• 4:24
  That's OK, we'd love. To see you next Thursday, stream
• 4:27
  live on Twitter, 6:00 PM Eastern Time, The Rhythm Rundown.
• 4:30
  Also wanted to. Mention because it is a Friday,
• 4:32
  that means no. Pod Saturday and Sunday.
• 4:35
  Because again, if I work seven days a week.
• 4:37
  And I ignored my wife. She'd probably break up with me.
• 4:40
  So got to, got to go to you. Know Bed Bath and Beyond.
• 4:42
  Got to hit up Home Depot on the weekends.
• 4:44
  You know the drill. But it.
• 4:45
  Doesn't mean that I'm going to leave you completely alone.
• 4:48
  Always remember that on the. Weekends you can read.
• 4:50
  My sharp reports at. Visen Live or you can follow me
• 4:53
  at Josh under score insights. I will write them up and tweet
• 4:56
  them out every single day as I always.
• 4:58
  Do and then if you are in a. Good little hot.
• 5:01
  Streak here this week. And you got a couple?
• 5:04
  Extra bones in your pocket. Couple nickels.
• 5:06
  If you want to support the pod, you can get the.
• 5:08
  ASG best bet picks. From the Juice Reel app.
• 5:11
  And you can get them for. $4.90. Nine cents a week, so.
• 5:14
  If you just want the weekend plays or you just want to
• 5:16
  support the pod, again, $4.90. $0.09 for seven days worth of
• 5:20
  plays. And I consider it not.
• 5:22
  Selling picks because. I'm not a fan of.
• 5:24
  Selling picks I look at it as. A tip jar.
• 5:27
  The pods free. Support your podcast host.
• 5:29
  Tip your bartender. You can do that by getting the
• 5:32
  $4.99 a week best bets directly from Juice Rail.
• 5:35
  With that being said, guys, when things are going well, here's
• 5:38
  the thing about sports. Betting when you're hot the.
• 5:40
  Challenge is to wake up and stay hot when you're cold.
• 5:44
  The challenge is to not give in or give up and turn around and
• 5:46
  try to post a winning day. And the challenge when you're
• 5:49
  grinding? Is to continue to grind.
• 5:50
  And just post as many green days as you can.
• 5:52
  So today's a nice. Challenge for us.
• 5:54
  It's a challenge to stay hot, which is always the best
• 5:58
  challenge I. Guess you could say.
• 5:59
  But either way, guys, without wasting any more time, we're
• 6:02
  going to get right back to college basketball.
• 6:04
  Who again? I asked the yesterday.
• 6:05
  But who's loving college? Oops.
• 6:07
  Let's keep. It rolling here guys.
• 6:08
  Let's try to go 2 and one finish off the week on a hot note now.
• 6:11
  As I mentioned a second ago, the three games that I have for you
• 6:14
  lined up today. Very, very different.
• 6:16
  The 1st. 2 are extremely low bet small tiny little games with
• 6:20
  sharp line moves with good sharp mush edges and juice reel
• 6:23
  recommendations. And then we also have a big one,
• 6:27
  so. I'll save the big one for last
• 6:28
  because, man, we're going to really put.
• 6:30
  Our our sharp, our sharpness recently to the test.
• 6:33
  Because this one I can't wait to bet.
• 6:35
  But I'm scared. As hell because I've bet against
• 6:37
  this team before and they've taken me to the woodshed, but
• 6:40
  maybe tonight we get some revenge without further.
• 6:43
  Ado wasting no more time. 1st but on the board for me.
• 6:45
  Let's look at a 7:00 PM Eastern Time game.
• 6:48
  One of the first. Of two tiny little matchups
• 6:50
  mount. Saint Mary's.
• 6:52
  At Sacred Heart, let's set the stage talk.
• 6:54
  Splits talk line moves. I'll give you my play for this
• 6:56
  one. Mount Saint Mary's comes in 14
• 6:59
  and 15 on the year. They've won four straight, just
• 7:02
  beat Canisius 68 to 47. Easily covered as A7.
• 7:05
  And a half point home. Favorite, meanwhile?
• 7:07
  Sacred Heart. 12 and 18 on the year.
• 7:09
  They've lost two straight. Just came up short against.
• 7:12
  Marist 65 to 63, but they did cover.
• 7:15
  As a 7 1/2 point Rd. dog so. What have you seen across the
• 7:18
  market for this one? Well, this game open Sacred
• 7:20
  Heart. Listed as a 2.
• 7:22
  Point home favorite. Now, right off the bat, let's
• 7:24
  stop right there before we even get to the movement the splits
• 7:26
  everything else. That's kind of meaningful to me.
• 7:29
  That Sacred Heart is a 2 point favorite opener because Sacred
• 7:33
  Heart. Is 12 and 18 and has lost two
• 7:35
  straight. Mount Saint Mary's is 14 and 15
• 7:38
  and. Is 1 four straight?
• 7:39
  So even when you apply. Homecourt advantage, which again
• 7:41
  we got to give a couple. Points here for Homecourt.
• 7:44
  It can fluctuate between like a point.
• 7:46
  Or up to like. You know, even 3 points.
• 7:48
  You know, nowadays it's about two, but.
• 7:50
  Either way, you know why is. Sacred Heart a favorite if they
• 7:53
  have the worst record. And they are cold right now and
• 7:55
  mount. Saint Mary's is hot.
• 7:56
  So that's my first indicator that hey, this is.
• 7:58
  Fishy and fishy in. Favor of Sacred Heart.
• 8:01
  Now we look at the way the. Betting market has reacted.
• 8:04
  And they're taking the fishy side because we've seen.
• 8:06
  Sacred Heart, get moved up. -2 to -2 1/2 and a lot of these -2
• 8:11
  and a halfs are -115 -, 120. And some.
• 8:14
  Books are up to -3. So not only was it.
• 8:17
  Fishy that sacred art open as a favorite because they have the
• 8:19
  worst record and they've. Played worse recently.
• 8:21
  But they've become more of a favorite.
• 8:23
  So tells me smart money here. Is going with The Pioneers.
• 8:27
  You look at. DraftKings, Sacred Heart 49.
• 8:29
  Percent of spread bets, but 74% of spread dollars.
• 8:33
  So basically. Public split, low back.
• 8:35
  Game but heavy money here. Low bets higher dollars in favor
• 8:38
  of Sacred Heart, so that aligns with.
• 8:40
  The line move. In favor of Sacred Heart.
• 8:42
  Now, Ken Palm does have Sacred Heart, winning by two points.
• 8:45
  So right now they're around -2 1/2 - 3.
• 8:47
  You know where I'm going with this one, guys.
• 8:49
  I ain't laying A2. And 1/2 or a.
• 8:50
  Three win by 1. Or two.
• 8:52
  Or three. And you push.
• 8:53
  Or lose your bet. So I played Sacred Heart.
• 8:55
  On the money line. I got sacred.
• 8:57
  Heart money line at -1. 50. Earlier today looks like around.
• 9:01
  -155 -, 160. Is probably your best price,
• 9:04
  right? Now, but certainly.
• 9:05
  Shop around and try to get that best number.
• 9:07
  A couple advantages here for Sacred Heart better.
• 9:10
  Offensive efficiency, 216th. In the country versus 300 and
• 9:14
  31st. For Mount Saint Mary's.
• 9:17
  Better effective field goal percentage 153rd versus 100.
• 9:20
  And 90th. For Mount Saint Mary's 3 point
• 9:23
  shooting 68th in the country. Versus 230?
• 9:27
  2nd and better free throw. Shooting again.
• 9:29
  Tight game. You got to make your.
• 9:30
  Free throws. Believe it or not, Sacred Heart
• 9:32
  is 23rd in the country. In free throw shooting.
• 9:35
  Their opponent? Mount Saint Mary's. 330th.
• 9:38
  Lastly, a little. Home Rd.
• 9:40
  Sacred Heart seven and five at home.
• 9:41
  This year, nothing amazing. But above 500 record.
• 9:45
  Mount Saint Mary's is. 6 and 10 on the road.
• 9:47
  So fishy that Sacred Heart opened as a 2 point favorite.
• 9:50
  Even though Mount Saint Mary. 'S better record played better
• 9:53
  as of late. But the line has gone.
• 9:54
  Further toward the fishy side. We got some really sharp.
• 9:57
  Splits we got stat. Advantages we got home Rd.
• 10:00
  And then also I have rhythm. Predicting Sacred Heart minus.
• 10:03
  3.1. And our friends at Juice Reel
• 10:06
  have a 20. Percent.
• 10:08
  Sharp mush edge. In favor of Sacred Heart, so
• 10:10
  20%. More of the.
• 10:11
  Sharper winning betters are also going with Sacred Heart in this
• 10:14
  one. So first bit on the board for
• 10:15
  me. Fire up ESPN plus.
• 10:17
  Tiny little game. But checking off our boxes, I'm
• 10:20
  on the Sacred Heart. Money line again I got -1. 50 if
• 10:23
  you'd like to. You know, get.
• 10:25
  Follow those best bets on Juice Reel.
• 10:27
  You'll get that immediately. Or would have gotten it.
• 10:28
  Earlier today looks like. -150. 5 might be your best number
• 10:31
  there, but let's go Sacred Heart.
• 10:33
  Pioneers next little game for you before we get to.
• 10:36
  The big one tonight? Let's talk about App State at
• 10:39
  Texas State. 8:00 Eastern Time tip.
• 10:42
  Off now Appalachian. State comes in 19 and 11 on the
• 10:45
  year. They just snapped A2 game losing
• 10:47
  skid with an 89 to 70. Four win over Georgia Southern.
• 10:50
  They covered that. Game as A7.
• 10:52
  Point home favorite. Meanwhile, Texas State 18 and 12
• 10:55
  on the year. However they did.
• 10:57
  Just see their seven game win streak come to an end.
• 10:58
  They lost to Louisiana 67 to 54. Losing outright as a three.
• 11:03
  And 1/2. Point Rd.
• 11:04
  Favorite. So what do we seen across the
• 11:06
  board here? Well, this came open with.
• 11:07
  App state list around a. One or even 1 1/2.
• 11:10
  Point Rd. Favorite and what's very notable
• 11:13
  to me. Is that this line is not going.
• 11:15
  Further toward app state slightly.
• 11:17
  Better record? It's actually tumbled.
• 11:19
  Down toward a pick em. Or even hopped the fence.
• 11:22
  At one point to Texas. State. -1 -, 1 1/2.
• 11:26
  Now I'm looking at it's. Basically.
• 11:27
  There I see some Texas. State.
• 11:29
  Plus 1 1/2. I see some Texas State. -1 -, 1
• 11:33
  1/2. I see some.
• 11:34
  Games out of pick em. But what's definitely?
• 11:36
  Clear is that all movement liability has been toward.
• 11:39
  Texas State in this one. And a lot of the time, at least
• 11:42
  until there's a little bit of buy back, it was a.
• 11:44
  Straight dog to. Fave move on Texas State.
• 11:46
  Now it's becoming a. Little bit of a.
• 11:48
  You know, reverse line move. Or just a regular sharp move in
• 11:50
  favor of Texas State? Think of it this way, the lines
• 11:53
  never got into app state. -2 it's only moved.
• 11:56
  Down or flipped? Or hopped the fence.
• 11:58
  Toward Texas State so first. Indication to me.
• 12:01
  Smart money, Texas State. Then let's go to the splits at
• 12:04
  DraftKings. Texas State is getting 50. 4% of
• 12:07
  spread bets but 65% of spread dollars at Circa.
• 12:11
  Get a load of this. Out in Vegas, 50% spread bets.
• 12:14
  94. Percent spread dollars.
• 12:16
  So both. Books, in particular circa.
• 12:19
  Which caters to wise guys. Showing a really good low.
• 12:21
  Bets higher dollar split in favor of Texas.
• 12:23
  State now trying to. Mitigate some risk here.
• 12:26
  And you have some options. This reminds me a little bit of
• 12:29
  the. Other night, remember when we
• 12:30
  had Saint Joe's against George Mason?
• 12:32
  Where Saint Joe? 'S was the dog to fave.
• 12:34
  It went back a. Little bit toward George Mason.
• 12:36
  And it kind of ended. Like, you know, either.
• 12:38
  Saint Joe's. A really short.
• 12:39
  Money line, maybe a little. Plus money.
• 12:41
  Or you could get maybe? A plus. 1 1/2 + 1.
• 12:44
  Well, I already bet Texas. State on the money line at -115.
• 12:48
  So once again. Dance with the one.
• 12:49
  Who brung me? I'm sticking.
• 12:50
  With my original bet here. You can.
• 12:53
  Add a couple books, get. Plus 1 1/2 -, 120.
• 12:56
  So if you haven't bet the game yet, I'd probably just grab the.
• 12:59
  1 1/2 at -120 if you. Want to get a?
• 13:02
  Plus money number. Like maybe a + 100 on Texas
• 13:05
  State that's available to you as well.
• 13:07
  But I'm take committed here. With Texas.
• 13:08
  State winning the game. On the money line, but again.
• 13:11
  If you haven't bet it, 1 1/2's available.
• 13:13
  Really nothing wrong with that, but I did.
• 13:15
  Like the splits in particular. On the Bobcats. 60. 5% bets 93.
• 13:19
  Percent money line. Dollars in favor of Texas State
• 13:23
  Texas State had some clear advantages better offensive
• 13:25
  rebound percentage 70th verse 100 and. 49th for app.
• 13:29
  State they have better free throw.
• 13:31
  Shooting 50th in the. Country verse 300 and. 64th for
• 13:34
  app state. And they force more turnovers.
• 13:36
  On defense 80. 3rd in the country verse 300 and 37th for
• 13:40
  App State. Lastly, Texas.
• 13:42
  State really good home team. They're 15.
• 13:44
  And one at home this year. So open.
• 13:46
  App state a very short. Favorite again, technically,
• 13:49
  some books still have. Them as a short favorite.
• 13:51
  But all movement liabilities really been on the.
• 13:53
  Texas State side. Getting down to a pick or even
• 13:55
  hopping. The fence for Texas.
• 13:57
  State being favored. So we got.
• 13:58
  A really good team at. Home we got good splits.
• 14:01
  Bunch of good stat advantages. I played Texas.
• 14:03
  State money line. Again, I got -1. 15 but if you
• 14:07
  can. Get a plus. 1 1/2 - 120.
• 14:09
  I wouldn't mind taking that either.
• 14:11
  But let's make it. Easy on everybody.
• 14:12
  Win the damn game, Texas State now.
• 14:16
  Enough of those small little. Games although.
• 14:17
  Jokingly, I'm bet you know me. I bet every game.
• 14:19
  One unit, so it doesn't really matter, big or small.
• 14:22
  But I can't wait to sweat this one.
• 14:23
  Guys, I'm not going to lie to you. 8:00 PM.
• 14:25
  Michigan at Illinois. This is going to be a great one
• 14:29
  here guys. Hopefully great.
• 14:31
  Along with cashing a ticket. Fingers crossed.
• 14:34
  We'll set the stage for this one number one by far, by far the
• 14:37
  most heavily bet game of the. Night 2 great teams.
• 14:39
  Going at it and a. Very short number.
• 14:41
  So Michigan, they come in. 26 and 2.
• 14:44
  Remember, they're first in the. Country then lost to Duke.
• 14:47
  Now they're ranked 3rd. They've won 12 their.
• 14:49
  Last 13 just beat Minnesota 77 to 67 but did not.
• 14:53
  Cover as a. 22 point home. Favorite in that one?
• 14:56
  Meanwhile, Illinois 22 and 6 on the year they are ranked. 10th
• 14:59
  They just saw their. Two game win streak come.
• 15:01
  To an end though. They lost to UCLA. 95 to 90. 4IN
• 15:05
  overtime. And they were 6 1/2 point.
• 15:07
  Road favorite in that one. So what have you seen across
• 15:09
  the? Market here.
• 15:10
  Well, this came open with Michigan.
• 15:11
  Let's surround a. One or 1 1/2.
• 15:13
  Point Rd. Favorite and the public cannot
• 15:16
  believe. That Michigan is.
• 15:18
  Only laying one or one. And a.
• 15:19
  Half Michigan is a. Powerhouse Ranked. 3rd they're
• 15:22
  fantastic. Why on?
• 15:24
  Earth would the odds makers. Only make us lay one.
• 15:27
  Or 1 1/2 so the public very. Clearly is saying.
• 15:30
  Wolverines all day 77. Percent of spread bets at
• 15:34
  DraftKings are rushing to the. Window lay in the chalk.
• 15:36
  With the Wolverines. Now.
• 15:39
  If we. Go back to earlier today.
• 15:40
  We did see the. Sign tick up.
• 15:42
  Toward Michigan, they are. -1 -, 1 1/2.
• 15:44
  They got up to minus. 2 1/2. However, I wrote about this in
• 15:47
  the Sharp. Report and hopefully you guys
• 15:49
  jumped on the 2 1/2 because. At the time when Michigan went
• 15:53
  up to minus. 2 1/2 We. Started to see a lot of.
• 15:56
  Books not get up to. 3. But start to show resistance.
• 15:59
  And buy back at 2 1/2 and This is why it's.
• 16:01
  Important to read juice prices. And pull up the line.
• 16:04
  History at Odds Logic Reminder Odds logic.com.
• 16:06
  Slash Josh 123 get you that 7 day free trial 50% off your
• 16:10
  first month of service. But the key there was that.
• 16:13
  When it got to 2 1/2, all the juice.
• 16:15
  Was on the Illinois side. Plus 2 1/2 - 115 - 120.
• 16:19
  And I saw a couple. Other books actually getting
• 16:20
  down to 2. Now that told me that the two
• 16:23
  and. 1/2 was the high watermark with.
• 16:25
  Illinois and if you liked. Illinois, that was the number
• 16:27
  you. Jumped on.
• 16:28
  So I jumped on Illinois plus 2 1/2.
• 16:30
  At -117 at Bally bet now. Since that time.
• 16:35
  Good thing, bad thing. The good thing is tons of
• 16:38
  movement has come back to our Illinois, Illinois.
• 16:40
  Is down to +2. Illinois is down to plus 1 1/2.
• 16:43
  The bad thing is, hey, 2 1/2. Pretty much aren't there
• 16:47
  anymore. I did see Caesar.
• 16:49
  Still offering +2. But most other books.
• 16:51
  Are at 1 1/2. So I got the 2.
• 16:54
  And a half again. Hope you guys are able to jump
• 16:57
  on that as well. If not, looks like plus.
• 16:58
  Two at least shop for that. Try to find the best number you
• 17:01
  can. But I love the fact that
• 17:03
  basically. We're right back to the opener.
• 17:05
  Michigan -1 1/2. Back to Michigan -1 1/2.
• 17:08
  So if we take a step back. In the most heavily back.
• 17:11
  Game of the Night, nationally televised primetime.
• 17:14
  It's on Fox. Everyone on their mothers.
• 17:16
  On Michigan. Why is it Michigan?
• 17:18
  Clearly at minus. 2 - 3 - 4 Why is the line?
• 17:22
  Right back to where it opened. That even though the public.
• 17:24
  Is hammering Michigan? That is a classic, classic line
• 17:27
  freeze. Line freezes when you have heavy
• 17:29
  heavy betting on one side but the line.
• 17:31
  Really won't move. Again, it did move.
• 17:33
  Initially toward Michigan, but it's.
• 17:35
  Right back to where it started, especially later in the.
• 17:37
  Day as limits get raised, that tells me all big money is
• 17:40
  pouring in. On Illinois.
• 17:42
  Now Illinois is your top #1. Contrarian play of the night.
• 17:45
  You know, you go to the, you go to the.
• 17:46
  BA on a Friday night and you get you get a Bud Light, you get
• 17:49
  some. Chicken fingers, some nachos
• 17:52
  you. Turn on the.
• 17:52
  TV or look at the. TV This is the game on at every
• 17:55
  bar in America. So even if we take.
• 17:57
  Away the sharp. RLM line freeze back toward.
• 18:00
  Illinois. This is just a great.
• 18:01
  Contrarian play where Illinois. Is only getting 23.
• 18:04
  Percent of spread bets. At DK.
• 18:06
  I did like, however, at circa. That Illinois is getting 40. 7%
• 18:09
  of spread bets. But 60?
• 18:11
  4% of spread dollars so out in Vegas book that caters to wise
• 18:15
  guys. They got a really good low.
• 18:17
  Bets higher dollar. Split on Illinois now, Ken.
• 18:19
  Palm does have Michigan winning by 1.81 to 80.
• 18:23
  So that does provide a little value on.
• 18:25
  Fighting line I plus one. And 1/2 or hopefully.
• 18:27
  Can get at least the +2. Or if you got the. 2 1/2 You're
• 18:30
  really loving this line. Dropping right now.
• 18:33
  But in addition to. The contrarian opportunity, the
• 18:35
  sharp line movement, the Ken Palm.
• 18:37
  Edge A. Few advantages I noticed with
• 18:39
  Illinois. Better offensive.
• 18:41
  Efficiency first in the country? Versus 5th for Michigan.
• 18:45
  Better offensive rebound percentage.
• 18:46
  Third in the country versus 24th for Michigan.
• 18:50
  Better free throw. Shooting 6th in the country.
• 18:52
  Versus 150? Second for the Wolverines.
• 18:54
  And they commit fewer. Turnovers on offense. 13th in
• 18:57
  the country versus 170. 1st for Michigan.
• 19:01
  Illinois has been great. At home. 13 and 2:13 and 2:00 at
• 19:04
  home this year. What I really like, hopefully.
• 19:06
  This is an advantage here. Is that the fighting line I.
• 19:08
  Have a rest first. Tired.
• 19:09
  Advantage fighting line I last. Played on February 21st and they
• 19:14
  went into. Overtime and.
• 19:16
  Lost to UCLA, so they're. Kind of bitter, and kind of, I
• 19:19
  would hope. Revenge is on the mind.
• 19:20
  Let's get right back to it. Get.
• 19:22
  Right back on track versus. Michigan, who last played on the
• 19:26
  20. 4th So again, that's a. Three day advantage here for.
• 19:29
  Illinois to. Rest and rehab injuries to be.
• 19:32
  Hungry and be at the gym and wanting.
• 19:33
  To avenge that UCLA. Loss, but also.
• 19:36
  A good coach like Underwood, that's more time in the.
• 19:39
  Film Room. To prepare for your opponent.
• 19:41
  So you Add all up here guys. Again, line did.
• 19:43
  Move up toward Michigan early. But it's come crashing down
• 19:46
  toward Illinois. Tells me a lot of big money's on
• 19:48
  the Illini. Hope you got the. 2 1/2 If not
• 19:50
  you can get a 2. But again.
• 19:52
  A lot of books are at 1 1/2. But oh, by the way. 22% sharp
• 19:56
  mush. Edge on Illinois at Juice Reel.
• 19:58
  And what I really love. Is there is a green *?
• 20:01
  Money line. Rhythm recommendation on the
• 20:04
  fighting. Line.
• 20:06
  And Rhythm has the Illini plus 0.1.
• 20:08
  So basically a pick em. Game so you might be annoyed if
• 20:11
  you missed. The 2 1/2.
• 20:12
  Try to get the. The two or you?
• 20:14
  Definitely get. The 1 1/2.
• 20:15
  But hopefully you know with the pick.
• 20:17
  EM type prediction. Even that 1 1/2 will provide
• 20:20
  some value. So Sacred Heart money line.
• 20:23
  Texas State plus 1 1/2 for money line up to you and.
• 20:26
  Then Illinois again. Hopefully you got the 2.
• 20:29
  And a half if not. +2 Try to find that at Caesar's.
• 20:32
  So that about does it for episode 4. 64.
• 20:35
  Of the all systems go Sports. Betting podcast powered by
• 20:38
  Rhythm. This is the part of the pod
• 20:40
  where we wrap. Things up and I always.
• 20:41
  Start first by saying. Thank you.
• 20:43
  Thank you for listening, thank you for tuning in, thank you for
• 20:46
  grinding in the arena with me. Every single day.
• 20:48
  To the UPS and the downs, the good and the bad.
• 20:51
  The hot streaks. The cold streaks, the good days,
• 20:53
  the bad days. And I appreciate you guys.
• 20:55
  Waking up every day. You know.
• 20:58
  Taking the time. Out of your day positive
• 21:00
  attitude trying to attack the sports betting market and turn
• 21:02
  a. Profit.
• 21:03
  I think you want to be, of course.
• 21:05
  Not cocky, not arrogant. You know, cautiously.
• 21:07
  Optimistic. We know how hard it is to
• 21:08
  consistently win at betting. But we we're trying to eke out,
• 21:11
  grind out. With as many winning.
• 21:13
  Days as possible. And that's what I love.
• 21:15
  Doing with you guys so. If you do, enjoy the pod you
• 21:17
  value. The insights please.
• 21:18
  Help me grow this podcast. Do a couple of very easy.
• 21:21
  Things it's not going to. Cost you much time or effort.
• 21:24
  But give the. Podcast A five star review.
• 21:26
  On Spotify or iTunes, leave a nice comment.
• 21:29
  Under the Review tab. Click the follow button
• 21:31
  recommend. The pod to a friend.
• 21:33
  Retweet the pod when? I put it out each day on
• 21:35
  Twitter. At Josh.
• 21:36
  Under score insights, next. If you enjoy this style of
• 21:40
  sports betting, data-driven. Sharp contrarian betting.
• 21:43
  Focusing on line movement, bet split.
• 21:44
  System matches trying to. Take a contrarian approach and
• 21:47
  bet. Games with our head and not our
• 21:48
  heart. If you enjoy the style of
• 21:50
  betting. You want to learn more?
• 21:52
  About data-driven betting Or you have someone in your life who
• 21:54
  could use some data-driven tips maybe they have never bet before
• 21:57
  but they want to get into betting or maybe.
• 21:59
  They bet a lot, but they lose a lot because they're just.
• 22:01
  Throwing darts with no no no numbers behind it.
• 22:05
  Well, if you want. To make my day.
• 22:06
  Please go to. Amazon.com.
• 22:08
  Type in the. NFL sharp betting playbook.
• 22:11
  Or the Everything guide to sports betting.
• 22:13
  Grab one. Or both of my books.
• 22:15
  Bring them the sports book, I'll sign them for you.
• 22:17
  I'll buy you a beer. And we'll get some nachos and
• 22:20
  root like hell for the Illini. Tonight Next have you downloaded
• 22:23
  Rhythm and Juice? Real yet?
• 22:24
  My 2. Favorite sports betting apps?
• 22:26
  They're going to help you. Win because they help me.
• 22:27
  Win. I know they're.
• 22:28
  Very beneficial because they're great cherries on top.
• 22:31
  We start with the market and then if Juice Reel and Rhythm
• 22:34
  are with. US.
• 22:35
  Hey, even better. But rhythm is great for.
• 22:37
  Their AI backed models and predictions for game bets and
• 22:39
  player props. As well as Juice Reel.
• 22:41
  So many great features, the sharp mush indicators, the
• 22:43
  arbitrage plays. Shop for the best line futures
• 22:46
  as well as. Being able to support the.
• 22:49
  Pod and get the picks. Immediately the best bets.
• 22:52
  You can do it by signing up to get the.
• 22:54
  ASG best bets on juice. Rail, as I mentioned.
• 22:56
  Before it's. 499 a week. No, not. $499 a week.
• 23:01
  I know people. Out there of picks packages that
• 23:03
  cost that much, it is $4.99. Cents a week, 5 bucks.
• 23:08
  And you'll support. Your podcast host.
• 23:10
  And you'll get the plays early and hopefully beat some closing
• 23:12
  lines and get a 2 1/2 on Illinois before it falls.
• 23:16
  But definitely download both rhythm and Juice Reel and.
• 23:18
  Give them a. Five star review.
• 23:20
  In the App Store while you're at it.
• 23:22
  Next, do you have a live odds page?
• 23:24
  We heard me hint at it earlier, but hey.
• 23:27
  Odds logic, it's the best around.
• 23:28
  Maybe you have a live odds page that you love.
• 23:30
  But it's very expensive. Or you have one that is free but
• 23:34
  it's delayed and you don't know where the splits are coming
• 23:36
  from. People always ask me, they'll
• 23:37
  throw. Percentages at me and my.
• 23:39
  They'll be like O80. Percent of bets are on this and
• 23:41
  I'm like OK. Where is that coming from?
• 23:43
  And they'll say, oh, this. Site.
• 23:44
  OK, well. Where do those numbers come from
• 23:46
  at that website? Which books are they accruing
• 23:48
  those numbers? From the beauty of.
• 23:51
  Odds logic is that they're going to give you every single sports
• 23:54
  book around I. Even have the.
• 23:56
  Ability or you do as. Well to track like.
• 23:59
  Circa and Pinnacle which is now the called primary market on the
• 24:02
  odds logic odds logic page, but like that.
• 24:04
  Online again when those. Books start to move then.
• 24:08
  You're going to see the. Market React.
• 24:10
  So if you look at those books moving forward, you know, hey,
• 24:13
  if I want to bet. This game.
• 24:14
  Like for example I was staring at the odds page earlier and it
• 24:18
  was. Illinois Plus Plus 2 1/2.
• 24:22
  And then I started to see circa. And Pinnacle and Chris.
• 24:26
  Start to get. To get down to 2.
• 24:28
  So that was the indication to me that, hey, I better grab that 2
• 24:31
  1/2, right? Now, because it may not last
• 24:32
  very long. That's one of the ways.
• 24:34
  You can win. With odds logic.
• 24:36
  But getting the best number, tracking the betting market,
• 24:38
  pulling up the line history. All those lines getting.
• 24:41
  Lit up in red or? Or orange or or green.
• 24:44
  That means that the. Numbers are.
• 24:45
  Moving in front of you, live scoring, live in game.
• 24:47
  Wagering odds. It's really the best.
• 24:49
  Live odds page around. So I highly recommend giving it
• 24:51
  a shot. All you got to do is go to.
• 24:53
  Oddslogic.com slash. Josh. 123 again.
• 24:58
  That'll give you a 7. Day free trial and 50% off your.
• 25:00
  First month of service. So that about does it.
• 25:03
  For episode 464. Of the all.
• 25:05
  Systems go sports. Betting podcast on a big.
• 25:08
  Friday. As always guys, two final
• 25:10
  thoughts, One, whether I. See you at the Borgata.
• 25:12
  In Atlantic City Twin. River in Rhode Island the.
• 25:14
  Brooklyn, New Hampshire. Foxwoods.
• 25:16
  Or Mohegan. Sun down in Connecticut at the
• 25:18
  Encore in Boston. Or plain Ridge park Casino.
• 25:20
  MGM Springfield or the Nash and my neck of the woods on the
• 25:23
  border of. Massachusetts in New Hampshire.
• 25:25
  Or out in the desert where the. True grinders get down or.
• 25:28
  Billy Walters. Sends his number runners where.
• 25:30
  The lowest true as possible is found at the South.
• 25:31
  Point or sweat? And sharp contrarian plays.
• 25:33
  Jumping in the stadium, swimming.
• 25:35
  Pool. When they cash a big ticket at
• 25:36
  Circa. You're going to walk up to me,
• 25:38
  We're going to meet each. Other We're going to see each
• 25:40
  other at different ends of the sports book.
• 25:42
  We're going to knock. On the janitor's closet, we're
• 25:44
  going to grab a broom, do a little Fred Astaire dance on
• 25:47
  the. Sports book floor because
• 25:48
  there's. Nothing better than a three.
• 25:49
  And O sweep. And why is it great?
• 25:51
  Yeah, you go 3 and O again, you make money.
• 25:54
  But to me always trying to have the.
• 25:55
  Expectation of. Let's try to.
• 25:57
  Grind scratch and claw and get a 2 and.
• 25:58
  One when you get a. Three and O.
• 26:00
  It just makes it that sweeter real estate.
• 26:02
  Expectations. That's huge.
• 26:04
  So you will walk up to me, do a little, do a little broom sweep
• 26:07
  dance. And show me a Utah.
• 26:09
  Tech ticket a Drexel. Ticket a Wagner ticket first.
• 26:12
  One's on me, next one's on you will.
• 26:13
  Post about the book and Sweatshop Can Train plays all
• 26:16
  night long. So as always, guys coming off of
• 26:18
  three and O or an O and three. An 8:00 and 1:00 or 1:00 and
• 26:21
  8:00. A hot streak, a cold streak, A
• 26:23
  good day, a bad day. Hey, life.
• 26:25
  There's ups and downs sometimes. Everything goes your way and
• 26:28
  it's a fantastic day. Sometimes you wake up, the alarm
• 26:31
  clock doesn't go. Off you spill coffee on
• 26:33
  yourself, you're like, hey. It's just not my day.
• 26:35
  But that's kind of like betting, kind of like life.
• 26:37
  We can't control the outcome of the game.
• 26:39
  But we can control piercing. Together the puzzle.
• 26:42
  Across the market, trying to make the sharpest bets that we
• 26:44
  can. With her head and not her heart.
• 26:46
  So we're looking for. Games that fit our model.
• 26:48
  Against the. Public with, the House with.
• 26:50
  The pros flat bet avoid parlays and get that.
• 26:53
  CLV if we can do. That we're going to be.
• 26:55
  Successful sports betters so hope.
• 26:57
  Everyone has a great Friday. Have an even better weekend.
• 27:00
  Reminder, no pot on the. Weekends we can get.
• 27:02
  The Sharp report. Plays on Twitter at Josh.
• 27:04
  Under Score Insights Saturday and Sunday, you can get the.
• 27:07
  ASG best bet pics. From Juice Reel and no matter
• 27:10
  what happens, hopefully we keep this little, little hot streak
• 27:12
  going. We'll be right back at it on
• 27:14
  Monday. That'll be episode 460.
• 27:17
  Five, and it'll also be. Officially the month of March,
• 27:19
  but it'll be episode 465 of the All Systems Go.
• 27:22
  Sports betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 27:25
  Good luck everybody, have a great Friday.
• 27:27
  And an even better weekend. I'll see you on Monday.
• 27:30
  Good luck.