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Apple Should Partner With Tesla On EVs: Wedbush's Ives · Bloomberg Intelligence

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, along
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts,
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: along with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts,
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: and on Bloomberg dot com. Apple is up two points
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: x percent today for the year, though year over year,
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: I should say from this day last year, Apple is
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: up eight So this two and a half percent increase
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: probably not the biggest of its year. Nevertheless, it's up
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: on an electric vehicle report. It's going to make one.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: We knew it was going to, but now we have
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: a little bit more detail. So let's bring in somebody
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: who knows a lot about what Apple is doing and
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: how it can be successful done Eyes of web Bush
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: Securities joins so down. We knew that at some point
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: we would probably get an electric vehicle from Apple. What
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: do we know now that we didn't know in the
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: last few days. Well, I think it's really around the
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: battery technology and some of the innovations going on within Cupertino.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: I mean, if you look at the e V and
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  Speaker 1: the autonomous visioned Apple. There's been a lot of starts
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: and stops, but clearly they're going to dive into the
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: deep end of the pool. I believe it's going to
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  Speaker 1: be through more of a strategic partnership where clearly it's
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: going to send a ripple effect across e VY and
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: from a stock perspective, it's just another arrow in the
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  Speaker 1: quiver when you look at the overall ecosystem going forward,
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: Where does the confidence come from that Apple will be successful?
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: I mean it's it's great at other things, but I
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: mean vehicles are a whole different kettle fish. As they say, yeah,
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: no doubt, And that's why I don't believe that they
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: ultimately start manufacturing their own cars. I believe they're going
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: to leave that to a partner, potentially a Tesso or
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: v W because you know, I think that's the thing
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: investors want to see them, from a software perspective, vertically
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: integrate their software into vehicles. And I think if you
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: go out into the next few years, EVE, it's a
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  Speaker 1: golden age and I think it's even similar what we're
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: seeing in China and Bay Do that they potentially you're
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: going to get into evs because we're talking about a
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  Speaker 1: trillion dollar mark at the next decade, and the Apple
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  Speaker 1: recognizes where they sit. Autonomous is key, and I think
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  Speaker 1: this is just going to be another way for them
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  Speaker 1: to monetize that you know, brand, which is unparalleled. Um,
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: this same argument is partially what's behind Tesla is nearly
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  Speaker 1: seven h again this year, right while we're at three
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  Speaker 1: percent or so ev take up right now, there will
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  Speaker 1: be a point at which that becomes, you know, exponentially larger.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: What about the idea of Apple teaming up with a Tesla,
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: is that something that would ever happened, Well, I think
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: they could potentially Apple and Tesla, and I think that's
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: a partnership that potentially could happen in terms of how
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: it fits strategically. So I think that could be somewhere
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: on the horizon two thousand one Musk and Cook on EVS.
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  Speaker 1: That would be something that could have a ripple. In fact,
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  Speaker 1: that's why I believe a test or VW is ultimately
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: who Apple partners with, right and essentially Apple needs to
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: find a partner. So what would be the best partner.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: I'm the bed the best partners in stree mode in Tesla,
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  Speaker 1: I think that's one that would make the most sense
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  Speaker 1: strategically in terms of going after that market, especially where
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: e V is right now. I mean right now, in
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: terms of the e V market, it's Testa's world and
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: everyone else is paying rent. And that's something I can
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: see Apple further and further penetrating through a partnership. Down
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: talk to us about the rest of Apple's future. What's
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: your price target on Apple right now and what do
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: you see coming in the nearer future. Yeah, right now
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: we're a hundred sixty dollar price target two hundred bult case.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: I continue to you as a supercycle iPhone twelve. I
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: think it's really just playing out in terms of China.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: This is a key market, and to me, Apple is
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: a stock that I think invest is just further and
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: further appreciating in terms of what I'd view as an
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: unparalleled upgrade opportunity. That's why the super cycle pieces is
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  Speaker 1: taken hold amazing. Then I also want to ask you
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: about the performance of Tesla on its first day in
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  Speaker 1: the SMP five hundred and whether it adds to volatility.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: So obviously we saw you know, run up and then
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a set off. What happens you know,
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: does it settle into regular SMP action. Yeah, I think
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: that was a bit of a sell in the news.
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: You know, obviously parabolic move into SMP five hundred inclusions.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: It's really all about demand here. Demand looks very strong
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: in terms of December, especially in China. That's really the
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: winchman to move the stock higher. And that's why, you know,
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: we have a thousand hour bulk case on Tessa, and
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: I think it just comes down to execution in this
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  Speaker 1: market you're seeing in China too, where it's only three
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: percent of all overall autos today, we think going to
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: ten percent untill two thousand twenty five. That's why right now,
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  Speaker 1: e Z is you know, I think one of the
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: more transformational market opportunities we've seen in our last twenty years. Yeah. Well,
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: for sure of you watching that. I mean a lot
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: of people that that's that's all that coming are benefiting, right.
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: So I want to ask you as well about the
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: solar winds and the hat I mean the cybersecurity industry,
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: will is ultimately benefit it or hurt it. Well, for cybersecurity,
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: I think it could have three to five dips of
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: growth in the near term. I mean, this is what
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: likely looks like probably the biggest cyber security attack potentially
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: in the history and and and it's it's a black
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: eye for the overall for the industry, but the beneficiaries
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: are going to be massive. Because government agency is an enterprise,
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: they're gonna need to spend on companies like z Scale
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: or Tenable power Out, stail Point, among others. And that's
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: why you've seen these stocks continue move higher in terms
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: of where cybersecuit is going, especially in the shift to
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: claud Out. And this is you know, obviously this attack
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: just speaks of sophistication and threat, but that's a silver
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: lining in this very unfortunate incident. It's bullish for cybersecurity
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  Speaker 1: stocks and investors are continuing to move those higher. What
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: are your topics in the space right now? Down the
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: topics and cybersecurity are Tenable, sail Point, z Scaler as
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: well as pal Out, So those are kind of names
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: front and center that I think benefit here. And we
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: believe cybersecurity stocked overall could be up more than between
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: now and the two thousand one. To me intact, taking
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: a step back, it's cloud cyber security and overall than
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: games led by Apple. That's the way to play this market. Amazing, Dum,
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: thank you so much for all of that, all of
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: your intelligence. Down Lives, Managing Director of Equity Research at
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: web Bush Securities. Well, it's pretty wild year for equity markets.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: We're u S five hundred, but we really, I mean
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: we dropped into you bear market territory more than that.
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: In fact, we were down about thirty something percent at
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: one point in March. It's been even wilder year for treasuries.
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: We went from you know, one point nine something percent
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: right down to fifty basis points and we've retraced a
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: little bit of that now. So let's bring in somebody
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: you have to advise clients through this whole volatility. Lisa
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: Charlotte is the chief investment officer for wealth management at
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: Morgan Stanley about two and a half trillion dollars in
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: client assets. Lisa, how are you feeling as we approach
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: the end of twenty twenty So, um, look, we're feeling
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: um bullish. Uh, clearly, you know we believe that that um,
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: we're in a v shaped recovery. Although it's unfortunate that
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: you know, we're currently experiencing this this latest surge in
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: the virus um, we are constructive that potential it will
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: be the last such surge. Um. You know, as we
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: get through the months of the tough months of January
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: and February and and get larger portions of the population vaccinated.
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: But the momentum, the underlying momentum in the economy continues
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: to be very solid. I think, you know, some of
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: the backward looking data that we've gotten over the last
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: eight weeks, you know, showed that there was slowing in
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: November and December. We could as you noted, that the
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: consumer confidence numbers fell more than expected. But uh, you know,
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: the past is the Finally, the passage of this fiscal
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: stimulus spell should put a floor underneath confidence. And that
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: combined with with um, you know, the vaccine should should
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: be able to to bridge us to to uh a
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: full recovery by the middle of next year. And and
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: you know, we think markets can kind of get uh
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: huh so more to go. Obviously, you're you said your bullish.
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: I mean, if you had stayed in the market, if
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: you had kept your nerves this whole time, you'd be
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: quite happy. But now I wonder what's priced in lison,
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: what's left to price and surely some of that good
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: news is already priced. Yeah. Look, I think that the
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: reason markets have stalled out here at the end of
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: the year is in part, uh, not just about you know,
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: sentiment about the virus itself, but it's about the fact
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: that we don't have a lot of more positive catalysts
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: to go. This is a market that has priced an
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: extraordinary amount of what has proven to be upside surprises, right,
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: whether we're talking about the speed of recovery, whether we're
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: talking about the fact that retail sales have held up,
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: whether we're talking about the fact that consumer balance sheets
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: have not deteriorated, credit card chart drops or not skyrocketing,
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: bankruptcies are not sky rocketing. The stimulus measures, uh, you
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: know thus far appear to have worked. Um. And you know,
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: we are looking at uh consensus forecast for corporate profits
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: next year to actually be up year over year about
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: pent So, uh, that's a lot of good news. And
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: that's certainly what you know, a price earning ordered price
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: earnings ratio of of twenty two times tells you I
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: and so this is a market that's going to have
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: to digest and and let a little bit of main
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: street and reality and the numbers catch up to the anticipation.
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: But you know, we think that next year, UM, you know,
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: stocks uh, at least as measured by the index, you know,
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: can be up another you know, five seven percent for
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: those deliance however that need you know something more than
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: that that are looking for ten percent or fifteen. What
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: we've said is you've got to look at individual stocks.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: You've got to look outside the US. You've got to
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: look in small and mid caps, uh, because the index
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: itself is really pretty rich. What about stocks that had
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: been overlooked, such as financials where we saw a massive
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: rally yesterday a Goldman, Zachs, Take Morgan and so on
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: after the buybacks and dividends news. They're you know, undervalued
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: according to some value investors right now. So our surgeon,
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: areas of healthcare, anything in those areas attract to you, Lisa,
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: absolutely so. Our our number one idea for is financials. Uh.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: You know, we published our report this week, you know,
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: talking about the fact that, um, not only do we
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: think that the yield curve does steepen next year, which
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: will help with net interest income, but we do think
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: that the charge offs this cycle loan losses are going
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: to be significantly less than historical and therefore a lot
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: of the reserves that were taken by the banks will
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: be released back into currenting. Obviously. Uh, you know, we've
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: gotten a little bit of regulatory forbearance here and and
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: you know we saw that as he said, with the
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: FED allowing the resumption of of of share buy backs.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: That's going to help the factor. And look, last, last,
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: but not least, is there are lasting behavioral changes that
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: that occurred during this pandemic that we believe create huge
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: profit opportunities and efficiencies for the bank. Well, Lisa, we
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: are going to have to get into those behavioral changes
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: another time, but we really really appreciated looking forward to
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: that particular conversation and happy holidays to you. Much appreciate.
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: That's Lisa Shallows of Morgan Standie Wealth Management. Let's bring
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: in something else now. David Garrity is with us, his
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: chief market strategists for laid Law and Company also partner
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: at bt Block, a cybersecurity and blockchain firm. And we've
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: got the laid Law five forecasts for one, so David
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: gets straight into it. What's your five forecast for next year? Yeah,
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: the five forecasts are starting off bunny, looking at the
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: fact that the market is still very much dependent upon
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: government fiscal stimulus, whether it's here in the US or
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: whether it's coming from overseas um. You know, from that standpoint,
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: we think that the markets will start the year off choppy,
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: with games going more towards the back half of the year.
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: Talking about markets, we have an objective for the S
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: and P five hundreds of four thousand for two thou one,
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: about eight percent upside, and we think that against this backdrop,
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: we're going to have interest rates rise on the ten
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: ure to about one and a half percent. Obviously, we
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: think inflation is gonna run hot, break evens going from
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: one to two point three. And then against that backdrop,
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: we're going to have the dollar weekend against foreign currencies
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: by ten, you know, off the strength of better economic
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: growth forecasts outside the US then the US. We're calling
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: for international stocks non US to appperform over the course
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: of one and we think that here within the US,
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: with an economic reopening value sectors are actually going to
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: perform tech in the year ahead, although tech will continue
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: to have growth from disrupting as it does. Yeah, fascinating.
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: So that's a really complex look at the markets. Is
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: that one forecast. I just want to make sure David
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: or all five. Um, that's all five sort of wrapped
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: into one statement. Well, talk to us that about the
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: and I'll get to that at the end. Talk to
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: us about the value plays. Because we were speaking earlier
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: to somebody who thought that financial stocks and some areas
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: of healthcare might be the places to look for free,
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: fresh value. Where are you seeing that? Yeah, and I
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: certainly would agree. Relative to financials and the fact that
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: you know, central banks are allowing the financials to go
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: engage in buy backs, namely the federal reserves, and now
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: it's been in the impact that will have in the
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: lights of the JP Morgan as well as Goldman, Sacks
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: and others certainly favors the financials. Clearly, it's the steepening
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: yield curve which is a thing that really will serve
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: to drive the financials. We think also at the same
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: time that a recovering oil price going from forty dollars
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: a barrel now backed up towards sixty over the course
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: of one will certainly prove to support what has been
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: one of the weakest sectors this year, which has been energy.
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: You know, down about or so in under formed the
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: s and p f UM. You know, so we think
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: that energy really is going to be probably the leading
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: recovery trade. But along with that, we'd also would throw
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: in with the financials with energy also looking at industrial
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: stocks industrials. Interesting, what area of industrialism would that be
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: dedicated on some kind of an infrastructure package. It may
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: be very much driven by an infrastructure package. Certainly have
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: seen positive performance coming out of the likes of Caterpillar
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: UM so far here in the fourth quarter of We
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: think that there's further upside relative to that. We certainly
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: think that you know, the ground is that uh in
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: the US to see a good infrastructure program being put
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: in place. Hopefully Congress cooperates, but that's what's going to
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: give people, we think in the markets preps someone on
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: hold until we get a better idea as to whether
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: we're really going to become bipartisan in one and not
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: necessarily as partisan as we've been. David, I want to
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: ask you a little bit about cybersecurity as well. Bt
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: block is a place where your partner and it's a
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: cybersecurity intelligence and a blockchain firm. I'm not sure how
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: related the two are, but certainly we've had this massive,
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: massive cybersecurity breach. It's very very serious and it goes
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: back as far as six months maybe more, to places
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: like Treasury and other agencies. How do you see this
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: playing out or are we in endanger that right now
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: without even realizing it, into the extent of foll have
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: gone more and more online over the course of has
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: worked from home became the new normal and is likely
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: to extend into uh, you know, the fact that people
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: having information observed or leaked certainly grows. And from the standpoint,
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: what we've been doing within DT block have been you know,
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: developing improved ways of managing passwords. One of the things
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: that was the major weakness within Solar Winds was that
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: they really hadn't practiced anything near decent password management discipline,
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: and that's what created the the open window, if you will,
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: that others were we're able to come in from, especially
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: from Russia, will be able to find a fix or
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: a patch or whatever you do find for this. I mean,
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: it sounds like it's gone so viral that we're talking
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: about you know, x number of Fortune copies, X number
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: of US agencies and governmental departments and so on, how
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: do you patch that up? Yeah, I mean the issue
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: that you had with solar winds, the hack was that
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: there was essentially code that was put into software updates
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: if they were sending out to all their installed clients,
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: both government agencies as well as also private sector entities,
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: and you know, that's how the backdoor basically got populated
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: across the user base. Now, the problem you're going to
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: have here and trying to remedy this problem is that
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: the backdoor that was put in wasn't necessarily the only one.
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: Um you know, there are also other additional means of
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: establishing backdoors in the various systems that have been populated
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: as a result of this act. So trying to find
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: a way to actually go through and clean it up
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: is going to take some extended period of time. Relative
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: to government policy, you know, there clearly is an opportunity
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: and in need here on the policy front to basically
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: become or unified as regards cybersecurity how it's practiced, not
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: just within the government but across the US as a whole. David,
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: if there are some stocks in that area that you
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: would recommend, would be very grateful not just to cybersecurity,
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: but also blockchain. Um. You know, in terms of looking
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: at blockchain, there have been a number of vehicles we
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: think that you know, our Investment Management has had a
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: blockchain ETF that's out there that's very good in terms
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: of highlighting some of the stronger names. Our Investment Management
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: through their disruption UH or innovation ETF you know, had
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: a bannery year of a hundred and fifty two m.
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: Granted it might have been more due to Tesla in
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: terms of their vehicles, but you know, I think over
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: the course of emerging there will be more names that
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: will be looking at and be happy to highlight at
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: that time. Great well, David, thanks so much for joining
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: us today, and have a wonderful rest of your year.
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: David Garity is chief market strologist at laid Law and Company,
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: also partner at bat Block of Cybersecurity, Intelligence and blockchain firm.
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: On there to talk about is laid Law five. Those
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: forecasts for one hospitals are deluged in the United States
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: and places such as California. I see you capacity is
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: down to less than two and a half percent right now,
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: and of course fatalities are climbing. Let's bring in some Fazali,
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: Senior farm analyst and head of e m A Research
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: at Bloomberg Intelligence. To talk about this obviously, as well
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: as the vaccines and this variant that we're seeing in
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: the United Kingdom that may already be in Germany and
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: France some how important is a distress that this is
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: a variant and not a new strain. Oh, hi, Vannie,
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: So I mean, look, it's it's nomenclature, scientific nomenclature. I
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: mean a strain Star two is a new strain of
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: the coronavirus versus Stars kobe us. So it's just it's
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: just to be to be pedantic. It's the right it's
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: the right way to put it. This is a variant
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: because it's the same family. Still, does it mean that
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: the current vaccines will also work against it? Or do
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: we know that yet? So we don't know for sure.
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: There are lots of reasons to remain optimistic the vaccines
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: will be Apparently, at least the fires A BioNTech one.
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: The immune response they've seen to it does not seem
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: to correlate with the areas where the mutations are, but
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: mutations can also change the shape of this. The confirmation,
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: if you like, of the spike protein which is being
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: targeted by the vaccines, so it might diminish the efficacy,
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: but luckily we're starting at efficacy, so it's going to
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: be quite good to see what that might be. Even
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: if it's is still a pretty pretty serious help in
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: managing the pandemic. Now, this particular variant, we know that
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: it's more contagious. Do we know how people are reacting
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: when they get it? Is it the same type of reactions?
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: Are they as sick? You know, our ventilator is something
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: that did come up. It's too early to tell, you know,
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: the the the the only way we know is in
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: a few weeks time as hospitalizations mortality data come through
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: and then you can see what what what variant of
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: the virus was was causing those issues. You need the
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: data to be able to tell, and just by looking
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: at the numbers it's impossible to be able to tell because,
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: as you rightly said, if the ice use are jam packed,
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: then people's mortality is likely to go up because they
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: can't deal with them better. So that's that's Those are
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: key elements that that some serious science needs to be
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: done to figure it out. The measure is being taken,
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: so lockdown and various countries restricting travel into their countries
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: from the United Kingdom for various amounts of time, and
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: those may get extended. Is that the right thing to do?
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: They It's possible that it's that it's a bit late
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: in terms of shutting the stable doors after the horse
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: has already bolted, And it's possible that they already that
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: they that the virus has evolved the same mutations in
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: you know, we've seniored already in South Africa, very similar
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: mutation is not identical, but to very similar mutations in
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: other countries. And I would be amazed if it's not
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: already in the United States. So that's the key thing here.
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: I'm going to repeat that Sam Fazali, who is head
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: of our pharma analytics and really has been on top
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: of everything coronavirus related, understands it all, says that he
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: would be amazed if this new variant is not already
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: in the United States, a variant that is more contagious some.
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: The longer that this you know, COVID nineteen plus its
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: variants get to linger in a country and in the world,
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: the more mutations will have. Right, How isn't it getting
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: more and more serious and more and more urgent that
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: you know, we impose draconian measures to try and stop
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: this thing. Well, I kind of wrote that back in
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: if you remember Vannie back here a couple of months ago,
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: as the US cases were starting to rise. The issue
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: is that the more the virus, as you rightly say,
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: the more the virus mutass, the more people have got
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: this virus, the more opportunity gets to me to sorry,
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: the more opportunity gets to mutate, and that obviously eventually
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: it finds ways around our immune system. So the key
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: thing is to really try and bring it down to
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: levels that a lot of Europe. You know, in France,
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: if you look at the case numbers, they've managed to
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: bring it down quite meaningfully, although they've just relaxed a
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: little bit their rules. And I'm worried that cases will
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: start rising again. So that that's the element. And Drew
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: Conian or not, I mean, you've seen the effect you
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: can have on a country if they don't if they
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: don't make the right decisions. But what's going on in
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: the UK. Yeah, so some we are seeing vaccines rollout today.
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: Fauci and friends got the MODERNA vaccine. We had already
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: seen other officials get the Visor vaccine. I guess you know,
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: when we eventually are able to get a vaccine, doesn't
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: matter which one we receive. Oh, they are very lucky people, actually,
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: I mean I don't care which one I get. If
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: if whatever one's available between Maderna and finds my on take,
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: I would happily take it. It's um, they're pretty similar.
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: One's got maybe a little bit less a little a
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: little bit more troublesome than the other, but frankly it's
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: neither here nor there. So I'm just jealous of them
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: getting it. So do you have any concerns at all
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: about the idea that there may have been extra doses
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: that Fiser wasn't willing to sort of allow. It was
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: putting a little extra into vials just to allow for
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: you know, maybe a little bit of spillage or what
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: have you. But hospitals are now seeing that, you know,
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: they can be made into extra doses and maybe even
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: a dozen and a half. Does that concern you at all?
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: Should these administrators be confined to just five doses per vile? No,
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: it doesn't. It doesn't concern me at all. I mean,
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: you know this, you're activating the immune system here. Even
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: if you get twenty five micrograms or thirty five micrograms,
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: and please, I am hyph pothesizing here, right, it probably
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: doesn't make that much difference um in terms of the
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: kind of immune reaction that it causes. So the important
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: thing is that, you know, the more doses we have,
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: the better. I am, however, not a fan of what
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: a lot of people seem to be talking about, which is,
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: let's just do one does because it showed some efficacy
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: after one does, and then we can extend this out.
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: We have no idea what it does after one dose.
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: It was just part of a trial where the endpoint
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: of the trial was a two dose trial. You can't
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: make these decisions based on what anecdotal evidence one trial
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: shows you what So that that that's a big concern
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: for me. These interviews are always full of public health announcements,
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: and there is another one. Don't just take one does
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: if you're lucky enough to be in the system, go
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: back for your second dos because you don't know what
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: you're in for if you just take the one. But
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: you do know how lucky you are if you happen
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: to get to some how long will it be before
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: we know if there are any adverse effects and the
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: population in general that are vaccinated. We so I just
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: put a update ut today on our BI platform looking
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: at the data that we've seen already. If the numbers
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: are right, CDC has reported six allergic reactions by Friday night,
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: and I estimate about five hundred thousand people have been
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: vaccinated in the US. So that's a case rate of
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: not point not not one to percent. I mean, it's
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: let's put it this way, it's a very small percentage
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: of people. Of course, if one person getting a side
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: effect is not a good thing. But this seems to
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: be manageable. And we'll have to wait till January February
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: to hear about Bell's palsy because that takes a little
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: while longer at least in the trials to surface. So
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: let's see how that shows up. Some thank you so much,
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: and thank you for all of your hard work all
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: year keeping an eye and everything coronavirus related for us
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: being much much appreciated. That is some for sale who
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: has head of E M. E. A Research as Bloomberg
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: Intelligence but also senior pharmer analyst. Thanks for listening to
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews
• 28:03
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• 28:06
  Speaker 1: I'm Bonnie Quinn, I'm on Twitter at Bonnie Quinn. And
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: I'm Paul Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before
• 28:12
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• 28:15
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