Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Ethereum ETF Denial Countdown⌛Bitcoin ETF Outlook

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Ethereum ETF Denial Countdown⌛Bitcoin ETF Outlook · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

0:08
Let's get into the week ahead and all of the crypto news. Of course,
0:11
Ethereum is on front page. We'll talk about that and a couple other
0:15
things that I think will interest you guys today on where crypto is going.
0:18
My name is Paul Barr. We'll come back in a tech path. I
0:20
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0:56
let's get into the news this week, and by the way, we
0:59
are going to be dropping a video later this afternoon that is a huge regulatory
1:03
round up, because there's a lot of things happening this week and in the
1:08
days to come, especially in June, around not only the fit bill but
1:12
also stable coin. A lot more going on in the regulatory front, for
1:17
sure. Things that are happening right now in the ETF front is Michael Sunnishein.
1:23
He has stepped down. This is the CEO of grey Scale. That's
1:25
a big move downward. And I think there's a couple of points that have
1:29
been everybody's kind of been pointing to. We're positioning grey Scale for its next
1:34
phase of growth. We're going to be adding Peter Minzberg as gray Scale's CEO,
1:40
and this is going to be happening August fifteenth. Question I have,
1:42
of course, is timing. You know, anytime that you've got a lift
1:47
in numbers and now you have an executive change, is there other you know,
1:51
potential things at work. Here a couple of points that some of the
1:55
tweets have had here Sonishan himself, I'll leave Scale with deep gratitude. He's
2:01
thinking, Barry Selbert, the head of DCG, thank you for putting a
2:05
bet on me. And you know it's kind of his his farewell and that's
2:08
good. You know, now you've got a whole new team. Remember the
2:14
other comparison to this is if we get an eath denial, remember that the
2:19
eth ETF could also weigh in on how gray scale is going to be looking
2:24
at that. You get a new executive in and then another lawsuit maybe you
2:30
know that also weighs in on the position against the sec, meaning, hey,
2:34
this guy suited us in one another you know, CEO comes in,
2:38
they also agree this is a problem and suit us and potentially now we've got,
2:42
you know, multiple things happening. So it just shows consistency there.
2:45
Maybe that's the direction that's going. There could be some other things. This
2:49
one came in from Eric Balshchuni's course studying this category in the ETFs big shake
2:54
up at gray scale and his statement it's, you know, it's kind of
2:59
to the point here we're just beginning to see inflows again. So curious story
3:01
behind this. So, as I said, I always when I look at
3:06
politics, major executive moves with major corporations, and if there's anything that is
3:12
in alignment with timing of something that's critical like regulatory environment, I always question
3:17
there's something else to drop, so maybe there is. With grayscale, we'll
3:22
see a couple other points right here, Twelve the largest twenty five of the
3:29
US hedge funds collectively have amassed over two point six billion in Bitcoin ETF exposure,
3:34
huge numbers. There are eleven of the largest twenty five registered investment advisors
3:38
have also have exposure. All while bitcoin is just a one trillion dollar asset
3:43
class, I think it's about one to three right now. I'll look in
3:45
a second, but beyond the top twenty five the numbers are even bigger.
3:49
So you can kind of see right here the one that is going to grow
3:52
I think is going to be pensions, and you can see hedge funds most
3:55
likely will start to continue to push into this. And again this is just
4:00
you know, all of this at the right timing, which we've talked about
4:02
before, is all of this leaning toward a potential run at the you know,
4:10
the situation from you know, kind of the landscape of what we're seeing
4:13
politically, what we're seeing on the regulatory front, and now potentially on a
4:16
global scale because you've got Meek also deploying a lot of things playing into this
4:20
that I think are positive. If you just look at the current market CAAP
4:25
bitcoin holding in at one point? Was it at one point three? Holding
4:28
in right now almost sixty almost sixty nine k So it's starting to move up
4:31
a little bit here in the last week, almost ten percent, So not
4:35
a bad move for bitcoin in general. Let me know and drop in some
4:40
comments over on the side. I'd love to get you guys feedback. We'll
4:43
try to get some questions answered for you. Look at Salona man twenty one
4:46
percent. Nice moves there, up over a one eighty right now, so
4:49
it's Alana very heated right now. Will Salana get a retracement if an e
4:56
ETF is denied. I'm kind of curious how that might play out in the
5:00
markets. Bitcoin exchange reserves now all time low, right on time for a
5:04
second wave of ETF flows. Demand shock and elastic supply could be positive.
5:11
Also could be positive in the sense that we could continue to see en up
5:14
push. Many pop have been pushing for that seventy two to seventy four range,
5:18
handful of others kind of looking at that. We're gonna have garethon this
5:21
week. We're gonna talk about this. I'll have Evan in this week.
5:26
We'll also be breaking down some of the all coins and where Bitcoin and Eth
5:29
might be playing, especially as we go into Friday, because that could be
5:32
the date that really starts to set things in motion. I want to go
5:35
to a clip real quick. This clip is balshunis talking about the inflow streak,
5:42
because this could have a factor on where the next leg up on Bitcoin
5:46
could come from. Listen it. I think it ended at like seventy two
5:49
straight days, which is wild. I mean that ranks it, I don't
5:55
know, seventh eighth all time, but it was the biggest active streak for
6:00
a long time, and so if you look at new ETFs, that's never
6:04
happened. So it's just so such an anomaly. The number I like to
6:10
look at that I think really truly shows you how weird this is. Is
6:14
ibit reached ten billion dollars in forty nine days. Now. The record for
6:20
the speed to reach ten billion before that was six hundred and forty seven days,
6:26
So think about how much that blows away the record. So it's it's
6:32
the inflow streak was really was really interesting because day in and day out,
6:35
it's hard to take money in every day ETFs, like hotels, people like
6:39
to come in and out. So taking money every day is really unusual,
6:42
but to get to ten billion in forty nine days is just absurd. So
6:46
I am used to absurdity. Now it's almost like absurd and unreal has become
6:51
the norm in this category. So interesting statement, he said, the absurd
6:57
and unreal the norm in this category means and in general, I think blockchain
7:01
solutions as we start to see a lot of this play out. Here's the
7:05
other thing that plays into this, because when you think about the size of
7:10
ten billion coming in within fifty days, and then you look at the reported
7:15
holders and this was in the first thirteen f season, which is when they
7:17
file who holds within these ETFs, and you can kind of see it here
7:21
is IBIT holding it at four hundred and fourteen, only four hundred and fourteen
7:26
accounts holding bitcoin, And then you can kind of see there's Fidelity holding in
7:31
right at about a little over probably around what is that about two fifty Maybe
7:35
that's a significant position by a very few number. Now granted it's a lot
7:42
in the sense of that it's only been out there for a few months,
7:46
but still the capacity of what this could go to, which could be thousands
7:51
that's the difference that I think is probably kind of putting both Eric and jeff
7:58
Seyfert back on when does this stop? So very very interesting times for sure.
8:05
A couple of other things that are hitting. Of course, you always
8:07
have anytime you have good news on bitcoin where it's moving, then you've got
8:09
Peter Shift kind of jumping in on it. And it's you know, his
8:13
statement. It's always saying, hey, bitcoin's down, Silver's up, blah
8:16
blah blah. You know, you know Peter's We should probably have Peter back
8:20
on the show. I always love to talk to him because he's a smart
8:22
guy. He just you know, he's talking his book. I get it.
8:24
But here's Peter Brant. He kind of just kind of just puts it
8:28
out there and says, hey, listen, this is one of those things
8:30
that has been the talking point for Peter Schiff for quite a while. If
8:33
you look at the performance on the long term, whether it's a three year,
8:37
a five year, or two year, definitely a completely different position out
8:41
there in terms of where digital assets are going versus gold. Now, a
8:45
couple of the points I want to get to, which is the outlook for
8:48
the week, because there's a couple of things that could be starting to trigger,
8:52
and this clip will break it down a little bit more about Vanguard.
8:54
Take a look. Well, it's going to be interesting. There's many things
8:58
that I'm looking at in terms of what he'll do or how he'll make Vanguard
9:03
different. One of those is their stance on crypto. I would look for
9:07
reversing the crypto ban on their platform first, maybe in a year or two.
9:13
I wouldn't look for a Vanguard Bitcoin ETF anytime soon. The thing about
9:16
that is black Rock already, you know, by coming in at twenty twenty
9:20
five basis points as a fee, like they kind of already vanguarded the category.
9:24
I'm not sure Vanguard could add much. Maybe they come in at fifteen,
9:28
but I think by the time you might have a Schwab come out the
9:31
next year or two, we could already be at ten to fifteen basis points
9:33
anyway. But I do see Vanguard maybe opening up and lightening up a little
9:39
on their general outlook, Like clearly they are anti. I think they'll probably
9:43
slowly undo the anti I don't know if they'll be advocates or cheerleaders, but
9:48
I just see them being more relaxed about it because of his influence, and
9:54
I would call that an incremental change, not like a radical change. So
9:58
I feel like they're not worried about it. But like I said, I
10:01
think over time maybe that you know, maybe it will worry them because I
10:05
will say, IBIT is this second leading ETF and flows this year, Vanguard
10:11
is number one, but like you know, in other words, the IBIT
10:15
has taken in more money than every other Vanguard ETF besides VU, So that's
10:20
everybody in the industry has noticed this. This is a big deal. Yeah,
10:24
I would have to agree with Eric on this is that Vanguard's probably going
10:28
to slowly try to adjust into it. They're not going to be a market
10:31
leader. They kind of miss that boat, which want. They have a
10:33
new CEO, but he's now not really in a position where he has to
10:37
go out and play, you know, catch up. I think it's more
10:41
strategic that they're going to assist in because they still have to get their clients,
10:46
you know, exposure, and that's probably the bigger question right now,
10:50
is they don't want to be losing clients to you know, companies like black
10:52
Rock and others that are getting exposure into these asset classes. So they'll probably
10:56
lighten their position, especially as regulatory framework starts to come together, because they'll
11:01
have a position at that point. Now they can come in and say,
11:03
hey, we now it's safe, you know kind of thing. These other
11:07
firms were a little crazy, but now it's safe. You look at the
11:09
fear and greed right now, greed has really started to step up. We're
11:13
setting at seventy right now. You look at around fifty seven this time last
11:16
week, that was pretty low, and then last month around sixty six,
11:20
which we had seen some pretty significant moves of course with bitcoin prior to that,
11:24
so doesn't surprise me. Make sure it's mashal like button guys. We'd
11:28
love to get your feedback and it does help the video and also discoverability.
11:33
As I said, we're going to be dropping a big regulation video today.
11:37
A lot of very key things happening this week. You do not want to
11:39
miss that video. It's going to be coming later this afternoon. Cother a
11:43
couple of other things I want to hit on. Critical week has begun for
11:46
ethereum and what will the SEC's e ETF decision be. There's a couple of
11:50
people that are looking at this in a couple of different ways. Generally believe
11:56
SEC is going to reject or possibly delay the sea will first approved or Jack
12:01
van x application. This is coming on the twenty third this Wednesday. On
12:05
Thursday, then we get ARC so that's Kathy Wood. They'll announce the decision.
12:11
My point is if they don't, I'm still fifty to fifty on this
12:15
because it could still possibly come with all of what we're seeing. Remember FIT
12:18
twenty one happens on Wednesday as well, FIT passes last minute. You know,
12:22
we could be in a position where Genzler maybe readjusted. But remember the
12:28
impact on ETH with a FIT bill passing may not be the same as a
12:35
FIT bill that doesn't go through and then an SEC denial and or delay.
12:39
So this week's gonna be huge. Nick Garrossi says that hey, the SEC
12:45
will approve nineteen four b's in the first agent s ones. He said it
12:48
could take approval slowly. Grossi also stated the possibility it is technically possible considering
12:54
the lack of comms between SEC and the applicants. Okay, we'll see.
12:58
Other analysts are saying speculates that the SEC may just use this as lay tactics
13:03
to further evaluate market conditions mainly, I think regulatory conditions overall, So definitely
13:11
not one hundred percent done. A couple other tweets I want to hit on
13:15
this one had quite a few little breakdowns in it. This was where Matt
13:18
Hogan or Matt Hyland sorry, coming in on that. He a couple of
13:22
points he hit on that he was talking about nearly everyone thinks it gets denied.
13:26
It wouldn't be exactly what institutions would want everyone to believe, so wouldn't
13:31
be able to front run. Majority didn't think so. Also, when they
13:35
were talking about the last ETF, it would get approved either and most who
13:39
thought it would get approved thought that it would be a sell the news event
13:43
and that was not the case. So could this be playing out similarly to
13:48
the Bitcoin ETF? Not that you know, history beats, but sometimes it's
13:54
kind of interesting. Playbook is out now, institutions will buy in droves with
13:56
the ETF product shown obviously by coin, And clearly I think there's going to
14:01
be a lot of interest in this because of the fact that now we've got
14:05
anticipated interest in eth maybe not become a security, that's the big factor here,
14:11
And even if it were, there's some things that play out in that
14:15
as well. Why have we heard much about the ETF process like we did
14:20
in bitcoin, because a lot of it was, as we already know,
14:22
was groundwork in the previous one, and then the only difference would be staking.
14:26
However, two days ago, remember ARC also dropped it, and that
14:31
is a big factor. So if we don't see staking in the equation,
14:35
does that loosen it up for the SEC to say, yeah, okay,
14:37
we'll go through, make sure to drop some questions in over on the side.
14:41
We'll get to those and fill out the pole there today, I want
14:43
to kind of get your opinion on that one. Eric comes back in and
14:46
says, the same thing happened a couple of days as the spot BTC approval
14:50
people came out last minute said it's going to get denied. Yeah, yeah,
14:54
everybody kind of saw that. So now it's really no big deal here
14:58
if if they are wrong, so it's kind of a risk free pr move.
15:03
So same deal. So that kind of agreement there with Nick GROSSI,
15:07
I want to go to another clip here, and this clip is going to
15:11
get a little bit deeper on what Hogan thinks, and he goes a little
15:15
different spin take a look. Rick SEC has until May twenty third on ethereum
15:20
ETFs approved and delay, what's going to have they're not going to approve it.
15:24
There's too little traffic between the ETF sponsors and the SEC to illustrate that
15:33
they're really crossing the t's dot in the eyes. So I think that they're
15:37
going to be another delay, which is frankly not really bad news. But
15:41
I think anybody who's expecting this to happen in the next week or two is
15:43
going to be disappointing, you know. I think what everyone can agree on
15:48
is that eighty year old securities laws don't fit neatly into this world of digital
15:52
assets and crypto and twenty first century technology. There's a debate between the SEC
15:58
on one side and the CFC on the other side, which has said that
16:02
ethereum is a non security commodity. What we really need is for the regulators
16:07
and legislators to get together and build a regulatory framework that all crypto assets can
16:12
fit in that allow the industry to thrive here in the US. We don't
16:17
need these turf wars, but it is a dispute. It's important to note
16:19
that there are regulatory views on one side, regulatory views on the other,
16:23
and that the courts haven't cleared that up yet. We're still in that process.
16:29
Long term, I think we'll figure out the regulatory path that allows us
16:33
to move forward. But there is still some debate. Here are the arguments
16:36
by the SEC us. I mean sometimes they've argued it's not decentralized enough,
16:41
for example, is that an argument? I'm trying to think, what do
16:42
they just pooh pooh it and say? It's really hard to find justification that
16:48
supports the rationale of Gary Gensler and the SEC. Pretty Much everybody is opposed
16:52
to the way they've been managing cryptoregulation, not only the media and the investment
16:56
community, the crypto Communityvirtually every former SEC commissioner has been criticizing Gary Gensler for
17:03
his handling. Other members of Congress are approsed to this. There's really a
17:07
hard press effort to justify the SEC's behavior here. Yeah. I mean with
17:14
that, you could look at this and say, all right, well there's
17:17
still some possibility here. Maybe they're going to finally come to an awareness layer
17:21
and understand what's going on. Other things that are happening right now. In
17:25
Vidia gets ready to report their earnings, and this is going to be a
17:27
big deal because it will guide a lot of where the SNP goes, especially
17:32
with the mag seven Magnificent seven and goes the S and P. Bitcoin kind
17:37
of comes in right underneath it. Watch this clip right here. That's right.
17:41
So what we're seeing in data in the options market is traders are positioning
17:45
for around a ten percent move in in video stock after its earnings Wednesday and
17:49
through the end of the week on Friday. And what we're seeing ahead of
17:52
its earnings is some of that ultra bullish activity that's really become a hallmark of
17:57
the stock has called a bit, which is really interesting because options have been
18:02
a favorite way for traders to play the move in in Video Stock higher.
18:06
They keep looking for those super bullish calls around last earnings. I remember thirteen
18:11
hundred calls were super popular. But what I'm hearing and seeing is some of
18:15
that sentiment has calmed down a little bit and people are just slightly more cautious
18:18
this time around. I think the number one question in everyone's mind is how
18:22
much more can the stock keep going up. Bank of America was out with
18:26
a note saying that they see those revenues coming in at twenty six billion,
18:30
does in video Can they just meet expectations and the stock continue to move higher,
18:34
or if there's any sign of weakness, whether it comes to revenue or
18:37
guidance, is that going to lead to a major shift in the direction of
18:41
the stock in your mind? That's such a good point, Frank. I
18:45
mean, the company's revenue has more than tripled over the past year, and
18:48
even though expectations have been sky high, the company keeps smashing those expectations.
18:55
But it's so tough to tell. Right now. This has become a story
18:57
stock, right This is the everyone's favorite stock of the moment, and I
19:03
think that makes these moves really really tough to predict. So if you're predicting
19:07
or trying to predict, you got to look at some of their performance over
19:11
the past few quarters and you can kind of see right there on the chart
19:15
their performance versus their actual estimated EPs. So quite a bit higher on the
19:21
last one, four twenty one versus the four ninety one came in on February
19:25
or you know, last quarter. That'll be the question right now, because
19:27
it's been continuously climbing. But if you go back and even look all the
19:32
way into you know, twenty twenty one is a little bit more flat,
19:36
and that was kind of the situation. We didn't see the kind of activity
19:40
or this volatility that we've seen over these past three and a half quarters with
19:45
Nvidia. So will it lead out the Magnus seven still yet to see.
19:48
I think if they come in over six, that could be the point that
19:52
could see volatility maybe to the upside. We'll see how that plays out.
19:56
A couple other points right here, Black Rock CEO. We estimate trillions of
20:00
dollars of capital are now needed to build the AI data centers. This is
20:03
going to be a huge, I think gold rush. Of course, with
20:07
what we'll see in AI. In Vidia will most likely part of this because
20:11
just their cheap chip supply, and when you look at that, you're going
20:15
to start seeing a lot more flow into other technology, including blockchain. All
20:19
of that will kind of lift all boats for sure. Other points out here
20:22
that are happening. This week, KBEC kind of comes in and says s
20:26
and P. Five hundred in a last week fifty three hundred, first time
20:29
in history. It's up twenty seven percent of the year. Man, people
20:32
are just like crazy on this MA seven now are loan up fifty eight percent,
20:37
SMP equal Weighted Index minus the MAC seven are up twenty That's still not
20:42
bad. And then October. Since October, the S and P five hundred
20:47
added a massive twelve trillion in overall market cap. So some pretty significant numbers
20:52
right there playing out. If you look at where Bitcoin is holding right now,
20:56
continuing to fly with upward trend. We started picking up this upward churn
21:00
right here on our sentiment data continuing to flow out. If you caught our
21:04
MSI data last Friday, you probably saw that we were pointing up significantly both
21:10
on Bitcoin and also on ethereum, which is spiking right now at about thirty
21:15
three hundred. So maybe this is just that last run before we start to
21:19
see an adjustment, or could this be the beginning going forward. Let's go
21:23
over to the poll real quick, and then we'll answer some questions. Sika,
21:27
Look, we'll eth denial crash eight price on Friday. Yes, no,
21:32
all right, so everybody says no. And I feel like if we
21:34
get a FIT twenty one bill through the House, that in itself, I
21:41
think sets everything up from a regulatory environment, because stablecoreing will be right behind
21:45
it. We've already seen SAP twenty one go through two. Now it's going
21:48
to be in a position where most likely won't get vetoed by the President.
21:52
If he does vito it, that would be a nightmare position right now.
21:56
But he's got like ten days, I think, and we break this down
21:59
in a video up. But that is going to be a big deal for
22:03
sure. Let's go to a question or two. Financial Revolution XOP is close
22:06
to final judgment. Yes, that's coming very soon. I think we might
22:10
see some fireworks. I agree with that some of our team really likes XRP
22:15
just because of what's happening this month, possibly with a ripple well, with
22:18
a ripple stable coin happening, it's going to happen. Only thing about law
22:23
suits with the SEC, and SEC drags them out. They're trying their best
22:26
to slow adoption down. I don't know if they are as much anymore where
22:30
they've been trying, and they just keep getting their teeth kicked in, so
22:34
I'm not sure that that's going to continue for much longer. We'll see who
22:40
else do we have, William Fisher. I'm curious about eth Layer twos.
22:42
Maddick has been taking a beating. Let's take a look at Maddick because Madick
22:45
has been kind of a little bit sideways. Yeah, continue to hold that
22:49
position right there, and that's on the daily You can kind of see this
22:52
down trend right here that Maddick's been kind of facing for quite some time.
22:56
Are you guys going with layer twos or are you just staying on on ethereum?
23:00
You know, from an investment standpoint, I'm just kind of curious how
23:03
you're playing this. Gensler too arrogant to pass EITH at this time. Stephen
23:08
d says no. R D says ETF won't get approved until black Rocks turn.
23:12
That's August seventh, I think. And Daddy Chill says, Crypto is
23:18
dying that somehow you've come to the wrong channel. I think. Were you
23:22
looking for the gold channel? It's Peter Schiff. Just search Peter Schiff.
23:26
You'll find the gold channel right there. It's off to the races. Seventy
23:30
two to seventy three. Yes, we could hit that, because we are
23:33
about to crack seventy k right now. This line of support right now starts
23:37
to get back up. Could we hit an all time high, maybe another
23:41
all time high? Coming in, all right? What else do we have?
23:45
Which run? Which runs this bull run cycle? Link or ICP.
23:48
I'm gonna go with Link just because my friend Tim has me sold on chain
23:53
Link and I like chain Link and what they do. As you know when
23:56
you look at Orland, the amount of connected projects that they're going to be
24:00
playing with pretty big news, good stuff. Solana killing it, no retracement
24:06
if so. If eth is not, I would agree with that on Solana
24:10
Solana of course. Way we are starting to get into no man's land again.
24:15
All right, so we could see a push here. I'm gonna watch
24:18
some sentiment data on this real quickly because we could see a pushbacks two hundred
24:22
bucks. This might be the perfect timing for Solana. Let me know how
24:26
you guys are playing. Joe Venudo says etf approve upon hester Pier's appointment under
24:33
Trump administrative that Joe isn't for sure that would happen. I like that one.
24:38
What else do we have? Alex says, I recont eh price will
24:45
dip, but I can't imagine it will probably crash. What's a crash in
24:48
a day? Is that a crash? That's a pretty big crash, right,
24:52
could we see an ether ETF denial push it down. Let me see
24:56
where we are right now, We're holding at thirty three. If this holds
25:00
out and we get to this position of say thirty five, which I don't
25:04
know if that will be by Friday, but it could be. Let's assume
25:08
if we continues to push up on the daily, maybe we'll see that could
25:12
be. Let me see if that were to come off, and let's say
25:17
that we were at that thirty I'm going to put it at thirty four fifty
25:21
and some change. Even then it would only bring it back down to around
25:25
twenty eight hundred, so that's not much of a crash. That could be
25:27
a scenario that plays out on this for even if it is just an ether
25:33
push, meaning they just say, hey, we're going to slow it down
25:36
and wait and delay it going forward, guys, we're going to be doing
25:41
a bunch of live streams for you this week. Lots happening, especially as
25:45
we start to see these bills potentially get past a lot of things going on
25:48
in Capitol Hill right now and timing right now for the market itself, things
25:52
starting to look good as well, so things are in the right position.
25:57
Could this be that next leg up that everybody's been assuming on. We're going
26:00
to have garethon this week. We'll get a full lineup for you guys.
26:03
Make sure and subscribe right now because you'll get notifications on these kind of live
26:07
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26:11
terms of dropping some of the all coins and some of the projects that we're
26:14
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26:17
following me on X do that. It's just at Paul Baron. We'll catch
26:21
you next time right here on tech Path