Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Favorites - Special Mailbag Edition
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- 1:03Speaker 1: called the Tennessee Red Line one eight eight nine nine,
- 1:06Speaker 1: or visit one eight gambler dot net in West Virginia.
- 1:17Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
- 1:22Speaker 1: I am Chad Moment, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
- 1:28Speaker 1: Big Big Things today, folks. Uh. Later on in the show,
- 1:33Speaker 1: I'm going to be joined by my bff, my companion,
- 1:36Speaker 1: Mike Padre professional Better Simon Hunter. You guys have been
- 1:40Speaker 1: sending us a boatload of questions. We're doing a mail
- 1:45Speaker 1: bag today. You've been sending us questions about everything from
- 1:48Speaker 1: bank roll management to what are our days like Simon
- 1:54Speaker 1: and I during NFL off seasons two? Do we like
- 1:58Speaker 1: our jobs? What else we do? All those kinds of things. Um,
- 2:04Speaker 1: So we're excited to answer those. They're really thoughtful questions.
- 2:07Speaker 1: We love when you guys send those in, and we
- 2:09Speaker 1: love being able to give honest, forth right answers. But first, Simon,
- 2:18Speaker 1: we got another one are the Odds segment. For those
- 2:21Speaker 1: of you who don't remember, we have started a new
- 2:24Speaker 1: segment called what are the Odds, where listeners send in
- 2:27Speaker 1: their most inane coincidences, ironies, whatever you want to call them,
- 2:33Speaker 1: and we have our experts Sean Kerner and Nick Giffen
- 2:38Speaker 1: of our Predictive Analytics group figure out what the odds
- 2:42Speaker 1: are of something inane and crazy happening, and then they
- 2:47Speaker 1: come on they tell us what the odds are and
- 2:50Speaker 1: they explain their math. You can send all these in
- 2:53Speaker 1: podcasts at Action network dot com or just send them
- 2:57Speaker 1: directly to producer Matt Mitchell boy uncle Mitch uh on Twitter.
- 3:04Speaker 1: They're great. These are phenomenal. I love doing these, Simon,
- 3:08Speaker 1: how much do you love these? It's hilarious. It's just
- 3:11Speaker 1: hilarious here in the stories and hearing what the actual
- 3:13Speaker 1: odds are for that said story, it's just amazing because
- 3:17Speaker 1: we'll read this story and this one is freaking insane,
- 3:20Speaker 1: and then Nick Giffen is going to join us over
- 3:23Speaker 1: the phone from the wilds of Virginia. And Nick, by
- 3:27Speaker 1: the way, has more math degrees than you and I
- 3:30Speaker 1: have fingers and toes combined. Uh. And yet somehow he's
- 3:33Speaker 1: decided that what he wants to spend as I'm doing
- 3:36Speaker 1: is instead of solving the world's problems with math, he
- 3:39Speaker 1: wants to spend it on this and we're happy to happen.
- 3:42Speaker 1: Here is the question. This is from Christopher Frost listener,
- 3:47Speaker 1: Christopher Frost, I read this and I was astonished. I'm
- 3:51Speaker 1: meeting launched with two colleagues at work making conversation. None
- 3:55Speaker 1: of us are particularly close and we don't know each
- 3:58Speaker 1: other particularly well. So as we make conversation about sports,
- 4:02Speaker 1: one colleague, Mitch, mentions that he has a massive collection
- 4:07Speaker 1: of sports illustrated magazines dating back forty years. Mitch remarks
- 4:12Speaker 1: that one of his first and favorite Sports Illustrated has
- 4:16Speaker 1: Michael Jordan's on the cover, back when he was at
- 4:18Speaker 1: U n C. When he mentions this, the other colleague
- 4:21Speaker 1: sitted with us, Roger Google's the cover and then tells
- 4:26Speaker 1: Mitch to look at the letter to the Editors section
- 4:29Speaker 1: of the magazine when he gets home, because when Roger
- 4:31Speaker 1: was twelve years old, he sent a letter to s
- 4:34Speaker 1: I about a hockey player who was suspended for accidentally
- 4:37Speaker 1: tripping a referee, which was published in that edition. Mitch
- 4:41Speaker 1: was amazed, and when he returned home he found the magazine,
- 4:44Speaker 1: opened it and saw Roger's letter right there in print
- 4:46Speaker 1: from November. The following day, I run into Mitch. This
- 4:52Speaker 1: is Christopher, who is the I? He tells me he
- 4:55Speaker 1: had just spoken to Roger and discovered something even crazier.
- 4:59Speaker 1: Mitch had a daughter who was a junior at Ohio State. Remember,
- 5:03Speaker 1: Mitch is the guy who collects the s I s
- 5:06Speaker 1: not particularly good friends with any people he was talking to.
- 5:10Speaker 1: Roger is the guy who wrote the letter of the
- 5:11Speaker 1: editor that was in the s SI. Now Mitch has
- 5:13Speaker 1: a daughter who was a junior at Ohio State. Roger
- 5:16Speaker 1: had a son, also a freshman at Ohio State. And
- 5:20Speaker 1: when Roger called his son and mentioned the Crazy Sports
- 5:23Speaker 1: Illustrated coincident work, his son said that he might actually
- 5:27Speaker 1: know Mitch's daughter. So now two guys who worked together
- 5:30Speaker 1: barely know each other find out that one is collecting
- 5:32Speaker 1: Sports Illustrated that the other one had written a letter
- 5:35Speaker 1: to the editor when he was twelve. And now it
- 5:37Speaker 1: turns out their kids both go to Ohio State and
- 5:39Speaker 1: know each other. What are the odds on that? Right?
- 5:43Speaker 1: Here we go, as it turns out Roger's son was
- 5:47Speaker 1: pledging a fraternity Ohio State, and as part of the process,
- 5:50Speaker 1: he was required to create a daily puppy pledge pick,
- 5:54Speaker 1: which was a picture of a puppy with a positive
- 5:57Speaker 1: motivational message, and he must send this puppy picture to
- 6:00Speaker 1: a designated upper classman sorority student in a partnering process
- 6:07Speaker 1: that is entirely random. You guessed it. Roger's son was
- 6:13Speaker 1: partnered with Mitch's daughter, a fact they never ever would
- 6:17Speaker 1: have learned if the topic of old sports illustrated covers
- 6:22Speaker 1: hadn't come up. Wow, Nick Giffen, come on, brother, give
- 6:30Speaker 1: us your take. Hi everybody, Hi afternoon. This this one's
- 6:36Speaker 1: a doozy. We we essentially have a three partner here.
- 6:39Speaker 1: We have the magazine coincidence, we have the going to
- 6:44Speaker 1: Ohio State coincidence, and then we have the fact that
- 6:47Speaker 1: they knew each other through this random process. So we'll
- 6:52Speaker 1: break down all three of those. First, Let's start with
- 6:54Speaker 1: the magazines. And given that this was a collection from
- 6:58Speaker 1: over forty years ago and these guys are working together,
- 7:02Speaker 1: we can assumedly put this in an age range where
- 7:05Speaker 1: where these men are in let's say the forty five
- 7:08Speaker 1: to sixty age range. If I'm wrong, I apologize at
- 7:11Speaker 1: five overestimated ages. But given that's what was said in
- 7:15Speaker 1: the story, we're gonna go with about forty five to
- 7:17Speaker 1: sixty year olds. So what how many forty five to
- 7:21Speaker 1: six year olds that are alive now, we're there in
- 7:26Speaker 1: uh you know, the nineteen eighties when this Michael Jordan's
- 7:29Speaker 1: cover was out there. And we also have to count
- 7:31Speaker 1: for the people that are no longer alive today because
- 7:33Speaker 1: if they had written a letter to the editor, uh,
- 7:36Speaker 1: this coincidence may not have come up. So we came
- 7:39Speaker 1: up with a population of forty five six year olds
- 7:41Speaker 1: alive today between thirty and thirty five millions, and then
- 7:45Speaker 1: if you count those that aren't alive, we stretch it
- 7:48Speaker 1: up just to be conservative to fifty million, and also
- 7:51Speaker 1: to have nice round numbers. So let's say we're working
- 7:54Speaker 1: with a population of fifty million, which would put a
- 7:56Speaker 1: hard cap on the magazine number. That still doesn't answer
- 7:59Speaker 1: our question. Uh let's say, you know, we've got several
- 8:03Speaker 1: years of sports illustrated magazines and they came out what weekly,
- 8:06Speaker 1: and there's maybe two to five leditors to the editor
- 8:10Speaker 1: per magazine, and a lot of these people, uh, you know,
- 8:15Speaker 1: could have written multiple letters to the editor. So we
- 8:18Speaker 1: put it about potentially two hundred fifty unique writers out
- 8:22Speaker 1: of a fifty million population, So we would take two
- 8:27Speaker 1: fifty million. But then how many times has he told
- 8:30Speaker 1: this magazine you know collection Sports Illustrated magazine collection icebreaker story.
- 8:34Speaker 1: So we put it over a five year frame of
- 8:36Speaker 1: maybe around a hundred people have heard this story. So
- 8:39Speaker 1: when you take two hundred fifty fifty million multiplied by
- 8:42Speaker 1: one for the magazine part, we get about one in
- 8:47Speaker 1: two thousand chants of you know, this guy having a
- 8:50Speaker 1: collection and the other guy writing into one of these
- 8:54Speaker 1: not magazines. Now, we could boil it down further and say, well,
- 8:56Speaker 1: are the oddsios is exact favorite, But I feel like
- 8:59Speaker 1: it probably would have come up in general if we
- 9:00Speaker 1: have a Sports to the Series collection from the eighties
- 9:03Speaker 1: and this guy wrote into you know, s I and eighties,
- 9:07Speaker 1: they probably would have figured out as well. So that's
- 9:10Speaker 1: why we're sticking with one in two thousand on that part.
- 9:14Speaker 1: So now we need to go to the fact that
- 9:17Speaker 1: their kids both go to Ohio State. And this is
- 9:20Speaker 1: where Sean and I we tried to throw a lot
- 9:23Speaker 1: of cold water on this um. But the fact that
- 9:26Speaker 1: they both go to Ohio State and they work at
- 9:28Speaker 1: the same place probably means they're located in the same place.
- 9:31Speaker 1: I would guess in Ohio. That seems to be most likely.
- 9:34Speaker 1: So Sean and I rolled with that assumption. Doing that,
- 9:37Speaker 1: we were able to calculate the population of of uh,
- 9:41Speaker 1: you know, in state kids and who goes to Ohio State, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera.
- 9:45Speaker 1: What we found out is that there's about one and
- 9:47Speaker 1: twenty chance an adult male in the forty five to
- 9:50Speaker 1: sixty eight range has a kid if they live in Ohio.
- 9:54Speaker 1: How's the kid going to Ohio State? However, that's a
- 9:57Speaker 1: random sample that would include if you ask the farmer
- 10:00Speaker 1: in the middle of the country, or you know, asked
- 10:03Speaker 1: people of various income levels, etcetera. So the fact that
- 10:07Speaker 1: they're at this specific job, the kids pledge sororities and
- 10:11Speaker 1: fraternity you know, there's there's a little bit of a
- 10:13Speaker 1: selection bias here. And we're referring referring to last week's
- 10:16Speaker 1: story where we're gonna call this the chop house factor
- 10:19Speaker 1: or the chop factor. There's a lot of underlying chop here. So, uh,
- 10:24Speaker 1: you know, we just have to kind of gues estimate
- 10:27Speaker 1: as best we can. Instead of one in twenty, we
- 10:29Speaker 1: think the fact that they're working in the same place, uh,
- 10:32Speaker 1: you know, they're all sports fans. The kids went to
- 10:34Speaker 1: stories and fraternities there's probably a lot higher chance than
- 10:37Speaker 1: one in twenty that two random adult men would both
- 10:41Speaker 1: have kids going to Ohio States. So we put it
- 10:43Speaker 1: one in five for each. So one in five times
- 10:45Speaker 1: one in five is one twenty five. So that's the
- 10:48Speaker 1: probability of both of these men who have now connected
- 10:52Speaker 1: through this magazine also having kids that went to Ohio State.
- 10:57Speaker 1: Now we need to figure out what's the probability those
- 10:59Speaker 1: kids knew each other. And yes, this was a randomized
- 11:02Speaker 1: sorority process, but we also would have brought this story
- 11:05Speaker 1: up if they had had a class together, or they
- 11:07Speaker 1: had a mutual friend in the dorm together, etcetera, etcetera.
- 11:10Speaker 1: So we just wanted to calculate the probability that two
- 11:13Speaker 1: people to students at Ohio State would know each other.
- 11:16Speaker 1: And we said, well, given that they're both in sorority fraternity's, uh,
- 11:21Speaker 1: they probably run into a lot of people over their time.
- 11:24Speaker 1: So we took essentially the population of Ohio State. UH said,
- 11:29Speaker 1: they've running around three hundred four hundred people that you know,
- 11:33Speaker 1: they could probably recall knowing, and came up with about
- 11:37Speaker 1: one in a hundred and thirty three one hundred fifty
- 11:40Speaker 1: chants that they would know each other. So you take
- 11:44Speaker 1: one fifty times one times one and two thousands and
- 11:50Speaker 1: we come up with a number in let's say the
- 11:52Speaker 1: six to seven and a half million range. But we're
- 11:56Speaker 1: not done there. We think there's still some underlying chop right,
- 11:59Speaker 1: Like the fact that they're in sororities and fraternities probably
- 12:03Speaker 1: means they're more likely to be sports fans. That they're
- 12:06Speaker 1: more likely to be sports fans. Their parents are more
- 12:08Speaker 1: likely to be sports fans. That means their parents are
- 12:10Speaker 1: more likely to have Sports Illustrated magazine collections and more
- 12:14Speaker 1: likely to write in the Sports Illustrated magazine. So all
- 12:17Speaker 1: of this underlying chop is is something we can't really quantify. Right,
- 12:22Speaker 1: There's this correlated factor, but it probably brings it down
- 12:26Speaker 1: to around we would say three to five million range,
- 12:30Speaker 1: so one in three to one in five million range,
- 12:32Speaker 1: and I'd actually even air towards a little bit lower
- 12:34Speaker 1: side than that, but we are probably talking close to
- 12:36Speaker 1: a one in a million events. All Right, I'm really
- 12:40Speaker 1: glad you said that, because Matt Mitchell, you know, I
- 12:45Speaker 1: love this segment. I think it's great. The problem is
- 12:49Speaker 1: outside of sort of my professional life, whether it's as
- 12:55Speaker 1: a media executive, a content creator, someone who is in
- 13:00Speaker 1: betting community. I want mystery and romanticism. I want impossibilities
- 13:09Speaker 1: in my narratives. I want wow in my storytelling. We
- 13:16Speaker 1: get a story like this from Christopher Frost, which is amazing,
- 13:20Speaker 1: and then we got like the fucking geeks coming on
- 13:23Speaker 1: and pouring cold water on everything. I'm glad that we
- 13:26Speaker 1: stayed in like the north of one million chances, because
- 13:30Speaker 1: if you had said to me at the end of
- 13:31Speaker 1: the day, we really think it's like one in ten thousand,
- 13:35Speaker 1: I would have had to reach through the phone and
- 13:41Speaker 1: you know, been unpleasant. Nick. Yeah, well, thankfully we don't
- 13:46Speaker 1: get the unpleasant trees here, because this is I mean,
- 13:49Speaker 1: like I said at the start, this one is an
- 13:51Speaker 1: absolute doozy and it really is a three parter. And
- 13:53Speaker 1: when you add all these extra factors you start multiplying
- 13:57Speaker 1: them together, that really starts to almost exponentiate the odds here. Simon,
- 14:04Speaker 1: do you have thoughts on where we landed on this.
- 14:07Speaker 1: I was honestly hoping for the ending of being like
- 14:09Speaker 1: and now they're married. It's heartbreaking. Then my man couldn't
- 14:11Speaker 1: close the deal like serendipity. He had all the signs
- 14:15Speaker 1: pointed to it, and it didn't happen. I guess I'm
- 14:18Speaker 1: a little heartbroken. I was waiting for a better ending chat.
- 14:20Speaker 1: But it's still pretty interesting. Dude, the kids a team.
- 14:24Speaker 1: He's eighteen, she's probably there's still time. And by the way,
- 14:29Speaker 1: you know, I love love, huge fan of it. Nobody
- 14:32Speaker 1: loves it more than me. Like it's a very good
- 14:35Speaker 1: possibility that the dad that Christopher Frost here's this story
- 14:40Speaker 1: from the podcast, tells his new best friends Roger and
- 14:44Speaker 1: Mitch about the relationship to the Odds and the magazine
- 14:49Speaker 1: and their kids. And then the kids start hanging out together.
- 14:52Speaker 1: And who cares that she's a little bit older, that
- 14:54Speaker 1: she might graduate while he's a sophomore. And then it
- 14:57Speaker 1: could be two years of a long distance love affair.
- 15:00Speaker 1: Maybe she's going to get a job in Cleveland, maybe
- 15:02Speaker 1: she gets a job in Cincinnati. Maybe she gets your
- 15:04Speaker 1: job in New York and he goes to visit her
- 15:06Speaker 1: every once in a while. Who knows, who cares? That's
- 15:09Speaker 1: the beauty this could this could be the beginning of
- 15:11Speaker 1: the romance. You're the best. Chad's such a romantic. I
- 15:15Speaker 1: am a romantic. By the way, you met you. You
- 15:18Speaker 1: you said a keyword here Serendipity, which was an incredible
- 15:23Speaker 1: movie with John Cusack, and I believe it was Kate Beckinsale,
- 15:28Speaker 1: who is phenomenal. Is that what she writes her number
- 15:31Speaker 1: in the book? Yes? That, And I feel like we
- 15:35Speaker 1: have to have Nick and Sean. They gotta figure out
- 15:37Speaker 1: the odds for that, because that is actually a fronone
- 15:40Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell. Can we get Nick and Shawn to do that? Sure? Sure,
- 15:44Speaker 1: our audience has been begging for it. We can be
- 15:47Speaker 1: expanding this too. You're such a stickler for what the
- 15:50Speaker 1: audience wants. We could be expanding this into like fictional realms.
- 15:54Speaker 1: Couldn't agree more? Sounds great? Oh my god, Nick, Nick
- 15:59Speaker 1: is totally Nick Giffen predictive analysts and math maven for
- 16:05Speaker 1: the Action Network. Oh my god, I'm so glad we're
- 16:08Speaker 1: doing this. Nick has one of the best media setups
- 16:10Speaker 1: when he's in his home, and I'm super excited for
- 16:14Speaker 1: him for him to relocate and get it all settled again,
- 16:17Speaker 1: because he's the true pro. And I appreciate you coming on, buddy,
- 16:21Speaker 1: Thanks for having us as always, eisi super fun to do,
- 16:24Speaker 1: so keep them coming, Keep them coming. Keep them coming listeners,
- 16:27Speaker 1: what are the odds? Send them along? Podcasts at Action
- 16:30Speaker 1: Network dot com is the best way to do it.
- 16:33Speaker 1: You can always DM me DM Matt Mitchell, but that's
- 16:37Speaker 1: the best way to do it. Pretty good stuff. It
- 16:39Speaker 1: makes me happy. Simon, you would that you would herd
- 16:42Speaker 1: out on that I got. I kind of got lost
- 16:43Speaker 1: midway through it because there's just so many numbers are
- 16:45Speaker 1: probabilities starting around, but then I came back around. The
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- 17:57Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one next step or text next step
- 18:01Speaker 1: to five three three four two in Arizona one eight
- 18:04Speaker 1: hundred gambler or visit vanduel dot com slash RG in Colorado, Indiana,
- 18:09Speaker 1: New Jersey. In Virginia one eight eight seven eight nine
- 18:12Speaker 1: seven seven seven seven, or visit CCPG dot org slash
- 18:16Speaker 1: chat in Connecticut one eight hundred to seven zero seven
- 18:20Speaker 1: seven for confidential help. In Michigan called the Tennessee Redline
- 18:23Speaker 1: one eight hundred eight eight nine nine seven eight nine,
- 18:26Speaker 1: or visit one eight hundred gambler dot net in West Virginia. Simon, Yes, sir,
- 18:35Speaker 1: It's time for us to get to our reader questions.
- 18:39Speaker 1: It was a great mix. It was a great mix
- 18:41Speaker 1: of people who wanted to know real knitty gritty stuff
- 18:44Speaker 1: and people who wanted to know some more personal stuff.
- 18:47Speaker 1: I already know that, like Matt Mitchell likes this to
- 18:50Speaker 1: be a very focused podcast, he does not like when
- 18:54Speaker 1: we veer off topic. You can tell by the fact
- 18:57Speaker 1: I wanted to do the odds of serendipity and he's like,
- 18:59Speaker 1: I fucking hate you. So I'm forcing him to let
- 19:03Speaker 1: us include some more personal questions because if it was
- 19:06Speaker 1: up to him, it would only be very utility driven stuff. Okay,
- 19:11Speaker 1: that's fair. Here we go. I think this is a
- 19:15Speaker 1: good one for you. This is from MO two bank
- 19:18Speaker 1: roll management question. I had a winning NFL record last season,
- 19:23Speaker 1: going seventy six and sixty four. I still lost money.
- 19:27Speaker 1: I bet too much on losing favorites and not enough
- 19:29Speaker 1: on winning underdogs. Wondering if my distribution is off. If
- 19:35Speaker 1: you had one hundred dollars, how would you distribute between
- 19:39Speaker 1: a minus one forty teaser, a minus one parlay, a
- 19:44Speaker 1: minus one ten straight bet on a favorite, and a
- 19:47Speaker 1: plus one thirty dog or we know the answer to
- 19:54Speaker 1: this question? Should I stop playing parlays and teasers where
- 19:56Speaker 1: I typically lose the most. Let me answer the first question.
- 19:59Speaker 1: Let me answered that last question first, and then Simon,
- 20:01Speaker 1: I want you to get into the distribution. I'll give
- 20:03Speaker 1: you second to do the math. Stopped playing the parleys
- 20:07Speaker 1: and teasers last year when I played only the games
- 20:11Speaker 1: that were straight bets, where I felt like I was
- 20:14Speaker 1: going with my principles based on conversations Simon and I had,
- 20:17Speaker 1: based on what I know about the market, overvaluation on
- 20:21Speaker 1: one side or the other, etcetera. I was winning, and
- 20:25Speaker 1: I was down for much of the year because I
- 20:28Speaker 1: was spending way too much on parlays and teasers and
- 20:33Speaker 1: way too much on like these money line around robins
- 20:35Speaker 1: that Simon and I would do, and I was giving
- 20:38Speaker 1: back all my winnings. And it wasn't until the playoffs
- 20:40Speaker 1: where I went side player props and just individual bets
- 20:44Speaker 1: that I made it out back and ended up having
- 20:45Speaker 1: a winning year. I say, get out of the parley
- 20:48Speaker 1: and teaser business. Yeah, I mean, it's all about what
- 20:52Speaker 1: you're looking for now. It's a tough question, buddy. Um.
- 20:57Speaker 1: I I advised people just a bet straight because personally
- 21:00Speaker 1: that's what works for me. And I would say about
- 21:02Speaker 1: nine other professionals. But I don't know. I doubt you're
- 21:06Speaker 1: trying to beat like a pro. But if you are,
- 21:07Speaker 1: that's that's how it is, man. It's not some sexy
- 21:11Speaker 1: get rich scheme. It's a grind where, yeah, if you're
- 21:15Speaker 1: starting out, I would just do one unit, So if
- 21:17Speaker 1: one unit to use a hundred dollars, I would just
- 21:19Speaker 1: do everything you're doing that one unit. Maybe bump it
- 21:21Speaker 1: up when you think you have a good read. But
- 21:24Speaker 1: to me, I broke it down here. I'm a dog
- 21:26Speaker 1: better with the NFL. NFL is very unique in that sense,
- 21:29Speaker 1: and I'm a big believer. If you're trying to keep
- 21:31Speaker 1: it simple, throw three units on the number, so plus six,
- 21:35Speaker 1: plus seven whenever you're gonna get, And then you throw
- 21:38Speaker 1: half a unit or one unit on the money line
- 21:40Speaker 1: and like that. If you just stick to that and
- 21:42Speaker 1: you pick your spots, you build a bankroll. It's it's
- 21:45Speaker 1: really not that hard. The hard part is you, like, say,
- 21:49Speaker 1: we win really big for first three weeks, then you
- 21:52Speaker 1: start upping up your stake. Then you start doing these
- 21:55Speaker 1: parlays and you start doing more teasers again, and you
- 21:57Speaker 1: start just messing with your money instead of sticking to
- 21:59Speaker 1: what got you up for those first three weeks. UM.
- 22:02Speaker 1: So when it comes to money management, there's a there's
- 22:04Speaker 1: a million different ways to do it. But if you're
- 22:06Speaker 1: just starting out and you're just trying to build a
- 22:08Speaker 1: bank roll, I would take a nice and easy and
- 22:11Speaker 1: just do one, one unit at a time because you're
- 22:14Speaker 1: kind of just trying to figure out the rhythm of
- 22:15Speaker 1: the sport you're betting. It's like most pros that do
- 22:18Speaker 1: it for real five into five years into them be
- 22:22Speaker 1: a professional better. They really start getting the money management down,
- 22:25Speaker 1: so like they might have lost ten years before then
- 22:28Speaker 1: came a pro and it took another five years to
- 22:30Speaker 1: really fagre out to manager their money. So there really
- 22:32Speaker 1: is no one answer, sadly mode, but I would say
- 22:36Speaker 1: be patient and just understand you're not gonna get rich quick.
- 22:39Speaker 1: It's it's just a very grinding, grinding thing to do
- 22:41Speaker 1: sports betting. Uh. From might Oh and from our friends
- 22:48Speaker 1: at full Slate. Two related questions, I think these are
- 22:51Speaker 1: better for you, Simon, is there an industry standard on
- 22:54Speaker 1: how runners are compensated? And if you ever had a
- 22:57Speaker 1: major issue with a runner miscounting fat to incorrect wage
- 23:01Speaker 1: replacement et cetera. Of course to the second one. Yeah,
- 23:04Speaker 1: I mean there's always gonna be a little issues here
- 23:07Speaker 1: and there, but I would say it's always with the new,
- 23:10Speaker 1: the new people breaking into it. That's why it's really
- 23:12Speaker 1: hard to get in as a new person, as a runner,
- 23:14Speaker 1: because some of these people are being handed bags of
- 23:18Speaker 1: cash and they've never had a bag of cash and
- 23:20Speaker 1: their entire life, and you know, it's easy to pull
- 23:24Speaker 1: a runner. So, I mean we've talked a little bit
- 23:26Speaker 1: about it, like getting guys driver's license, getting their parents
- 23:29Speaker 1: home address, getting their parents phone number, like people they
- 23:33Speaker 1: care about. I mean, it's it gets a little murky,
- 23:35Speaker 1: but they're talking about a lot of money, people handing
- 23:38Speaker 1: a lot of money. So yeah, I mean I've had
- 23:41Speaker 1: my own drama with runners, but nothing compared to other
- 23:44Speaker 1: people in this industry. I've been very lucky where I've
- 23:47Speaker 1: either had runners, I worked with other pros and I
- 23:49Speaker 1: knew them already they're good people, or I've hired people
- 23:53Speaker 1: personally they're just very loyal to me. So um yeah,
- 23:57Speaker 1: nothing nothing to nothing too bad for me. Um how
- 24:01Speaker 1: they're conversated individually, different for everyone. Uh, what are you
- 24:04Speaker 1: looking to do? Do Do you want to run just NFL.
- 24:06Speaker 1: Do you want to run all four major sports? You
- 24:08Speaker 1: want to only run soccer and cricket, which means you're
- 24:11Speaker 1: all up at weird hours of the night, um, all
- 24:14Speaker 1: the time. It's it's kind of hard to say. Um.
- 24:18Speaker 1: I'd say, if you're you're just trying to get into
- 24:20Speaker 1: the industry. I ran for picks like I Honestly, I
- 24:23Speaker 1: always offered money, but I would just rather run and
- 24:26Speaker 1: get really good professional betters picks and use their picks
- 24:29Speaker 1: to mild build my own bank a wollt now I
- 24:30Speaker 1: talked about with Chad on the show. I went broke
- 24:33Speaker 1: a bunch of times doing that, but I was again,
- 24:35Speaker 1: I was just newing the industry again, getting my feet wet.
- 24:39Speaker 1: I was trying to figure out my own style. So
- 24:42Speaker 1: for me as a runner, I didn't get paid probably
- 24:44Speaker 1: for like a year or two at least when I
- 24:46Speaker 1: first started out. Most guys, if you're lucky, um, you know,
- 24:51Speaker 1: you might get a salary, But I would say most
- 24:53Speaker 1: work off tips. Like you're you're running a bag of money,
- 24:55Speaker 1: They're gonna take care of you. But again, it's it's
- 24:58Speaker 1: just hard getting your foot in the door. But most
- 25:00Speaker 1: of these guys are if they're willing to spend money
- 25:02Speaker 1: on a runner, they're gonna take care of you. So
- 25:05Speaker 1: I would say, at worst, at minimum you might get
- 25:07Speaker 1: twenty K for running one sport for a season. Uh,
- 25:14Speaker 1: we got got, we got so many good questions, Matt Mitchell,
- 25:17Speaker 1: We're gonna have to do a second uh mail bag pod.
- 25:21Speaker 1: This one's from Conrad Simon. You and I are going
- 25:24Speaker 1: to have completely different opinions on this our NFL all
- 25:29Speaker 1: day n f T s complete junk or something fans
- 25:33Speaker 1: will appreciate and trade for years to come. You have
- 25:38Speaker 1: thoughts on n f T s. I have thoughts and
- 25:40Speaker 1: n f T s you go first. I think n
- 25:43Speaker 1: f T s are cool. Um, they maybe someday will
- 25:47Speaker 1: have value again values all what people give this stuff,
- 25:51Speaker 1: I mean everything, Nothing really has value unless we give
- 25:54Speaker 1: it value or it takes incredible work to make said products.
- 25:58Speaker 1: So I don't know what to think of that n
- 26:00Speaker 1: f T stuff. I mean, me and Chad love the
- 26:01Speaker 1: basketball stuff, but that fizzled out very quick. Um. I
- 26:05Speaker 1: just still think we're just so far ahead of what
- 26:08Speaker 1: they're projecting for this stuff. But yeah, me personally, if
- 26:12Speaker 1: I'm investing money into hard cards like buying Pokemon cards
- 26:16Speaker 1: or baseball cards or baseball cards. I'm still doing hard
- 26:20Speaker 1: hard to copy over digital like I still bought every year.
- 26:24Speaker 1: I do the same thing, which is no secret. I
- 26:25Speaker 1: buy all the rookie cards I can. Of the quarterbacks drafted,
- 26:29Speaker 1: So the five quarterbacks that drafted last year, I got
- 26:31Speaker 1: all them year before, which is looking like gold. Joe
- 26:34Speaker 1: Burrow justin Herbert to Jalen Hurts, I mean that's that
- 26:39Speaker 1: to me is keeping it safe. But the n f
- 26:40Speaker 1: T stuff not not for me right now with investing
- 26:44Speaker 1: my money. Simon mentioned like we for a minute, we
- 26:49Speaker 1: got really into NBA Top Shop, and I think when
- 26:54Speaker 1: it comes to sports and f T s, you gotta
- 26:59Speaker 1: think about them the same way you think about the
- 27:02Speaker 1: hard cards, as Simon just said, by the ones that
- 27:05Speaker 1: you think are interesting, by the ones that you think
- 27:07Speaker 1: you would like to own. Don't think about, oh, this
- 27:11Speaker 1: will be a great investment one day. Don't overspend in
- 27:15Speaker 1: a hot market thinking you're going to turn that over
- 27:19Speaker 1: because it's way too unpredictable. It's way too event driven,
- 27:25Speaker 1: career driven, and honestly taste driven, and it's not something
- 27:31Speaker 1: that has real underlying metrics or fundamentals that you can
- 27:35Speaker 1: rely on as an investment. Um. So for me, it's
- 27:42Speaker 1: not a question of are they complete junk. I think
- 27:44Speaker 1: it's a question of if you love the NFL you
- 27:47Speaker 1: wanna be a part of sort of the next phase
- 27:50Speaker 1: of collectibles at a price you can forward, then you
- 27:54Speaker 1: should do it. I loved opening the top shot packs,
- 27:58Speaker 1: but I just got sick of seeing the price saying
- 28:00Speaker 1: in the market being so frenzied, and then it created
- 28:04Speaker 1: and it's just not that interesting to me anymore. So
- 28:07Speaker 1: you can't do it because you think you're gonna get
- 28:08Speaker 1: rich off it. It's like betting. That's my take. Uh.
- 28:13Speaker 1: When it comes to the other n f t s,
- 28:15Speaker 1: forget about it, board apes or whatever they are, Like,
- 28:19Speaker 1: I know people love them. To me, it's am it
- 28:22Speaker 1: feels so arbitrary. It feels so driven by a taste
- 28:26Speaker 1: for something that I don't see. Uh. I get Crypto,
- 28:30Speaker 1: I'm in crypto. I'm not uncomfortable with crypto. The other
- 28:35Speaker 1: n f t s like, it's just not it's not
- 28:37Speaker 1: my bag personally, and it just again it's um, yeah,
- 28:42Speaker 1: we'll keep it moving, but it's just it's just different
- 28:44Speaker 1: where we don't get n f t s because it's
- 28:46Speaker 1: too early. It's the same thing with the Internet. It's
- 28:47Speaker 1: like have you ever seen the old news Clippers and
- 28:49Speaker 1: then talking about l L and the Internet and the
- 28:52Speaker 1: ninth they're the late nineties, early two thousands, or like
- 28:54Speaker 1: what is the Internet? It's the same thing right now,
- 28:56Speaker 1: the n f T S. It's just we're very early
- 28:58Speaker 1: in it. So I don't have an hour to talk
- 29:00Speaker 1: about it. But it's UM, it's whatever you make it.
- 29:03Speaker 1: It's art is whatever someone's willing to pay for it
- 29:06Speaker 1: gives it the value. So all right, We're gonna do
- 29:08Speaker 1: two more questions, UM, and then we will do another
- 29:12Speaker 1: mail back because we have so many more from Sheila Simon.
- 29:17Speaker 1: You start, what interested you most about a career in
- 29:22Speaker 1: sports betting? Are you satisfied with how it has turned out? Um?
- 29:28Speaker 1: What interested me in it? I always was into it.
- 29:30Speaker 1: I can tell you that. I mean, my earliest memory
- 29:32Speaker 1: I think I talked on the show was the Tennessee
- 29:35Speaker 1: Rams Super Bowl and I had Tennessee on a bet
- 29:38Speaker 1: against my brother. Again, it might have been for a dollar.
- 29:40Speaker 1: I was a little kid, and the Tennessee gut got
- 29:43Speaker 1: tackled at the one yard line, and I just remember
- 29:45Speaker 1: it just being pure mayhem, where it was just like
- 29:48Speaker 1: a rush. As a little kid, I remember feeling that
- 29:50Speaker 1: rush of like I don't care about either of these teams,
- 29:53Speaker 1: but I care about winning that dollar and I got
- 29:55Speaker 1: stopped to the one yard line. So I definitely I
- 29:59Speaker 1: think that was something that started really young for me
- 30:01Speaker 1: with sports betting, but I was always into sports. I
- 30:03Speaker 1: grow up playing sports, so it just it came together.
- 30:06Speaker 1: Where as I got older, I loved math and when
- 30:09Speaker 1: I met my you know, my handler and my boss Bob,
- 30:13Speaker 1: it was kind of like not that he had a
- 30:15Speaker 1: time machine, but he pretty much described it that way.
- 30:17Speaker 1: It's like it's all in the numbers. It's like, don't
- 30:19Speaker 1: don't even look at the schedule or the teams or
- 30:23Speaker 1: their what what their record is. It's like, just take
- 30:26Speaker 1: a week by week, look at the numbers, look at
- 30:28Speaker 1: the look at the matchups, and that's how you find
- 30:29Speaker 1: the value. So it's definitely gone way better than could
- 30:32Speaker 1: ever imagined. And that's why when people asking you how
- 30:35Speaker 1: to get into it, I say, don't do it because
- 30:37Speaker 1: it's like I don't know if I came in with
- 30:39Speaker 1: twenty five guys there might be three of us left
- 30:42Speaker 1: that are doing this for real, and only two of
- 30:44Speaker 1: us are doing like pro ship. The one guy is
- 30:47Speaker 1: a grinder, like living in a one bedroom studio in Vegas,
- 30:51Speaker 1: driving his shitty car he still has had from two
- 30:53Speaker 1: thousand two. It's like, not everyone makes it the same way,
- 30:56Speaker 1: So it's it's tough. If you had told we dream
- 31:00Speaker 1: at your best scenario, I could never have dreamed the
- 31:03Speaker 1: way my life and betting has turned out. I mean,
- 31:05Speaker 1: it's just been again a lot of work and sacrifice.
- 31:09Speaker 1: I mean, I don't come on here a bit about
- 31:10Speaker 1: my life because I know people have real ship going on.
- 31:12Speaker 1: But it's it's not easy. But yeah, it's like you can.
- 31:17Speaker 1: I couldn't have dreamed a better, better way from my
- 31:19Speaker 1: left to go on this whole betting spear. How about you, Chad?
- 31:22Speaker 1: I would say, I've told the story before, so I'll
- 31:24Speaker 1: keep it as succinct as possible. I was an editor
- 31:28Speaker 1: at ESPN, the magazine in someone has signed me a
- 31:32Speaker 1: story about who was setting the points bread for March
- 31:36Speaker 1: Madness in Las Vegas. And this is right when offshore
- 31:40Speaker 1: internet online betting was becoming popular. So the Stardust Hotel
- 31:45Speaker 1: in Las Vegas, which was the the hotel that was
- 31:49Speaker 1: featured in the book, in the movie Casino like, it
- 31:51Speaker 1: was the premier destination for sports betting. You'd get lines
- 31:55Speaker 1: out the door for people wanting to bet those lines,
- 31:57Speaker 1: and that was what sort of set the agenda for
- 31:59Speaker 1: the entire country. There was a domino effect. Whoever said
- 32:03Speaker 1: those lines, that's what the rest of the market followed
- 32:05Speaker 1: in Vegas and then how word, every illegal bookmaker all
- 32:08Speaker 1: around the country. Right. So I wrote a story about
- 32:11Speaker 1: this guy Joe Lupo and Bob Scucci who used to
- 32:14Speaker 1: be the co host of the pod years ago, and uh,
- 32:18Speaker 1: that story became the book The Odds, in which I
- 32:21Speaker 1: spent six months in Vegas tracking the bookmakers and a
- 32:25Speaker 1: professional better named Alan Boston, who at the time was
- 32:28Speaker 1: the best college basketball better in the world, literally betting
- 32:32Speaker 1: more than a million dollars a day on college basketball.
- 32:35Speaker 1: And I was into it, not because I was into betting.
- 32:38Speaker 1: I loved, as I noted before the romance, the language
- 32:42Speaker 1: wise guys sharps, betting dimes, betting nickels, like, all of
- 32:47Speaker 1: that was fascinating to me. And I loved the interplay
- 32:50Speaker 1: between the bookmakers and the professionals and sort of there
- 32:53Speaker 1: was a four hundred million dollar market, four hundred billion
- 32:57Speaker 1: dollar market. I mean that was living in the shadows
- 33:00Speaker 1: that everywhere around the country was impacted by whether they
- 33:03Speaker 1: knew it or not. That's what interested me, and that
- 33:06Speaker 1: just evolved into writing columns. I was at ESPN writing
- 33:09Speaker 1: columns for ESPN dot com, doing the podcast for ESPN,
- 33:12Speaker 1: doing stuff on television for ESPN. Then when I became
- 33:15Speaker 1: an executive, you know, launching the betting be at ESPN
- 33:18Speaker 1: and hiring people to do it, and then ultimately getting
- 33:21Speaker 1: called by the Churning Group to help them launch Action,
- 33:24Speaker 1: which has been just a crazy, incredibly satisfying experience from
- 33:29Speaker 1: a personal perspective, professional perspective, financial perspective. So I'm very
- 33:34Speaker 1: pleased with how it turned out. It's funny how you
- 33:36Speaker 1: worried that where It's like, I honestly had no idea
- 33:39Speaker 1: there were professional sports betters. I had seen whatever is
- 33:41Speaker 1: the Two for the Money whatever the movie was, McConaughey
- 33:43Speaker 1: and al Paccino. Yeah, I gotta say, if I learned anything,
- 33:47Speaker 1: it's that gambling is not your problem, not even close.
- 33:50Speaker 1: You see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they
- 33:53Speaker 1: go to win. When we go to gamble, we go
- 33:55Speaker 1: to lose subconsciously. But all I knew was a professional
- 34:00Speaker 1: poker players like I watched brought as a poker growing up.
- 34:02Speaker 1: And I'll just never forget when when I talked to Bobby,
- 34:05Speaker 1: that's what he told me. He did, I go, what
- 34:07Speaker 1: the hell do you mean? Like you've got the Farmer's Almanac,
- 34:09Speaker 1: Like how does one make a living off sports betting?
- 34:12Speaker 1: So that that's cool that you came in from that
- 34:14Speaker 1: angle of like you knew about the world before you
- 34:16Speaker 1: even got into it, where I literally didn't know a
- 34:19Speaker 1: single thing about any of it until I got into it.
- 34:22Speaker 1: This is how cosmically connected you and I are, Signment,
- 34:25Speaker 1: It's why we are kindred spirits. When you were just
- 34:29Speaker 1: a young boy barely getting rid of your English accent
- 34:34Speaker 1: moving here from across the pond, uh and watching that
- 34:38Speaker 1: Tennessee Titans St. Louis Rams game uh and loving the
- 34:42Speaker 1: excitement of it. That was one of the pinnacle moments
- 34:45Speaker 1: in the odds because I happened to be at the
- 34:47Speaker 1: Stardust reporting in that season. That's the season that I
- 34:50Speaker 1: did it, and that was season two thousand, Super Bowl
- 34:57Speaker 1: rams were two one, and it actually had his the
- 35:00Speaker 1: Oracle change to how bookmakers set odds on NFL teams.
- 35:03Speaker 1: Because the bookmakers were so overexposed on the rams, they
- 35:08Speaker 1: ended up losing millions of dollars even though they won
- 35:10Speaker 1: the game because they had because the rams covered, they
- 35:13Speaker 1: end up losing millions of dollars and UM on the
- 35:17Speaker 1: game and uh on the on the rams. And so
- 35:20Speaker 1: they started shrinking the future's odds. And they really don't
- 35:24Speaker 1: make teams that long anymore, and they certainly don't take
- 35:27Speaker 1: big numbers on those long odds for context that that
- 35:31Speaker 1: would be betting Houston to win it all this year. Yes,
- 35:34Speaker 1: that's how I'm saying that is That's how insane it was.
- 35:37Speaker 1: And then and like you gotta remember, Kurt Warner was
- 35:40Speaker 1: a backup quarterback. All right. Last question from Kellen what sophomware?
- 35:48Speaker 1: What software does Simon used for his modeling? Excel, Python,
- 35:51Speaker 1: something else? Oh man, that's hard to say, because, like
- 35:56Speaker 1: I I did used to do sell but I stopped
- 36:00Speaker 1: doing that. Um, I've got a lot of model questions.
- 36:05Speaker 1: I keep telling people that, I mean, the model is
- 36:10Speaker 1: important for sure to what I do. It is very
- 36:13Speaker 1: important to get a number, get a base on, and
- 36:15Speaker 1: go and work off of those numbers. I mean, me
- 36:17Speaker 1: and you had talked about all the time. That's super Bowl.
- 36:19Speaker 1: That was a big deal of this past super Bowl.
- 36:21Speaker 1: We we made the line three. We believed in that
- 36:24Speaker 1: line being three for two weeks. We stuck to it
- 36:27Speaker 1: and the game landed on three. Like that's the dream
- 36:29Speaker 1: for building a system, But for most people out there,
- 36:33Speaker 1: it's that's like you can have to be really really
- 36:36Speaker 1: smart with math, and I don't think enough people, like
- 36:39Speaker 1: especially people listening to the show, do that. So like
- 36:42Speaker 1: when people ask me, what's the most basic system to do?
- 36:44Speaker 1: Rank all thirty two teams and like that's that's literally
- 36:47Speaker 1: how most systems are done. Like, yeah, you want to
- 36:51Speaker 1: break down, like I do, what the get off speed
- 36:53Speaker 1: of different offensive lineman is on turf first crass or
- 36:56Speaker 1: what d lineman have the fastest three cone drill? And
- 36:59Speaker 1: how does that translate to them every year being faster
- 37:01Speaker 1: than the offensive linement, Or which linebackers play better off
- 37:04Speaker 1: ball or in coverage. It's like that's murky. So yeah,
- 37:08Speaker 1: I don't know. People are asking all the time about
- 37:10Speaker 1: building out a system, and I told I told people.
- 37:12Speaker 1: The basics for me is, you know, I use three
- 37:14Speaker 1: different websites and I try to get a median number
- 37:16Speaker 1: from all three for each number I use. And I
- 37:19Speaker 1: use that just because if you're just using one site, um,
- 37:23Speaker 1: you know, if you want to just use pro Football,
- 37:26Speaker 1: their numbers are great. I don't know. I like to
- 37:31Speaker 1: have more than just one website because there is no
- 37:33Speaker 1: one answer to all this. So yeah, for building out systems,
- 37:37Speaker 1: people would keep wanting advice on that. I would say,
- 37:40Speaker 1: keep researching online and try to find a free one
- 37:42Speaker 1: to use as a base and then build from there.
- 37:44Speaker 1: If you eventually want to buy one off a website
- 37:46Speaker 1: or buy off another person online, I would do it
- 37:50Speaker 1: once you're ready to really build it out because it
- 37:51Speaker 1: is very time consuming. Before we break, we're doing a
- 37:55Speaker 1: speed round. Matt Mitchell. You've got a bunch of questions Simon,
- 37:58Speaker 1: and I will answer with one sentence. First reaction, Matt Mitchell, go,
- 38:02Speaker 1: if Simon could pretend to hold any college degree, what
- 38:06Speaker 1: would it be and where would it be from? Oh man,
- 38:09Speaker 1: my dream used to be to go to Pepperdine and
- 38:13Speaker 1: I would be I guess business major. Just played safe.
- 38:16Speaker 1: Oh no, The answer is psychology major from Oxford in
- 38:20Speaker 1: his home country. I don't know. I can't. I can't
- 38:24Speaker 1: handle hearing people's problems all that there's nobody listen. Nobody
- 38:28Speaker 1: is a better reader of human nature than you. You
- 38:31Speaker 1: have nailed it every single time we have a conversation
- 38:34Speaker 1: on air or off about human nature. You and I
- 38:37Speaker 1: are gonna go hang out in Philadelphia next week at
- 38:39Speaker 1: the Phillies game. It will be three hours of you
- 38:42Speaker 1: giving me insights on everything that I hadn't even concerned Jane. Wait, Chad,
- 38:48Speaker 1: if there was a good old fashioned book burning and
- 38:51Speaker 1: you could only save a single copy of a single
- 38:54Speaker 1: book you've written, which one do you say? It's got
- 38:57Speaker 1: to be The Detonators? Because The Detonators was the book
- 39:00Speaker 1: I wrote that was about. It's a true story about
- 39:04Speaker 1: a terrorist attack on New York Harbor in nineteen in
- 39:08Speaker 1: which German spies blew up New York Harbor, destroyed the
- 39:12Speaker 1: Statute of Liberty, decimated Manhattan all the way up to Midtown. Right.
- 39:17Speaker 1: Incredible story, crazy, fun book to report, one of my
- 39:21Speaker 1: favorite books to work on. Nobody bought it, and it
- 39:24Speaker 1: just crushed me, absolutely crushed me. I was supposed to
- 39:27Speaker 1: be on the Today Show and then Israel bomb Libya.
- 39:30Speaker 1: I got canceled and like all the momentum for the
- 39:33Speaker 1: book stopped for like two years. I was depressed. I
- 39:35Speaker 1: don't even know if I would ever write another book again.
- 39:37Speaker 1: I was so upset. So it would have to be
- 39:39Speaker 1: The Detonators because it was my truest labor of love. Yes,
- 39:43Speaker 1: you guys switched bodies in a freaky Friday situation for
- 39:49Speaker 1: one year. Who would get the better side of that deal?
- 39:53Speaker 1: I mean, I'm young, single and have tons of money.
- 39:57Speaker 1: I think chat I would have a great time to
- 39:59Speaker 1: travel in the world spending my money. Yeah, this is
- 40:02Speaker 1: a no brainer. I treat my body like a temple.
- 40:04Speaker 1: I'm an incredible shape. I have the heartbeat of an athlete.
- 40:08Speaker 1: And by the way, like my wife is pretty hot,
- 40:11Speaker 1: and I've got a really comfortable lifestyle, uh, a fair
- 40:15Speaker 1: amount of money and zero, like not a ton of
- 40:19Speaker 1: responsibilities because my kids are older. So it's a pretty
- 40:21Speaker 1: good gig for Simon too. But dude, if I could
- 40:24Speaker 1: live like a slaven the NFL better for a year, yeah,
- 40:27Speaker 1: and just drink and do whatever I mean it's and
- 40:29Speaker 1: know that I could go back to my life after
- 40:32Speaker 1: the abating as long as Simon didn't suck it up
- 40:35Speaker 1: and get me divorced. Is there any behavior from Batters
- 40:40Speaker 1: that makes you immediately think this person is a total loser?
- 40:44Speaker 1: Oh my god. I mean there's a million things. If
- 40:46Speaker 1: I'm in If I'm in line and there's a guy
- 40:49Speaker 1: counting his tickets, all this parlay tickets ahead of me,
- 40:52Speaker 1: and it's a Sunday morning, I lose my mind, Like
- 40:56Speaker 1: I just want to make my two bets and get
- 40:57Speaker 1: out of there, and I have to wait for this
- 40:58Speaker 1: guy to put all the tickets down on the counter
- 41:01Speaker 1: as he does his thirty different partlays it's to me,
- 41:04Speaker 1: that is the worst thing ever. It's like just doing
- 41:06Speaker 1: a little chiosk like booth or do it at one
- 41:08Speaker 1: of the computer screens. Don't bring them up to the
- 41:10Speaker 1: counter with the rest of the other bettors. This is
- 41:13Speaker 1: so easy. The single easiest thing to identify in an
- 41:18Speaker 1: asshole better is someone who says they've got it all
- 41:21Speaker 1: figured out. Yeah. I've spoken to so many people, and
- 41:25Speaker 1: believe me, doing this job, most of my time has
- 41:29Speaker 1: spent looking for talent. I can't tell you how many
- 41:32Speaker 1: people I've spoken to have been like they think this
- 41:35Speaker 1: is a hot ticket to get into because they want
- 41:38Speaker 1: to be famous, they want to be on TV, they
- 41:40Speaker 1: want to be in sports media. Everybody wants betting. I'll
- 41:43Speaker 1: talk to people who'll be like, yeah, I've been doing
- 41:44Speaker 1: it for six months. I totally got to figure it
- 41:46Speaker 1: out and finally, what Action Network personality would make the
- 41:51Speaker 1: most effective US president. I'd go Leadoff. I mean, I
- 41:57Speaker 1: like crazy and honest. Honest. He's crazy and he's honest. Like,
- 42:01Speaker 1: that's to me that that would be the perfect president.
- 42:03Speaker 1: Sadly we haven't had in a long time. Wow, you
- 42:06Speaker 1: know what, I hadn't thought of Mike Lieboff for that.
- 42:09Speaker 1: I was thinking Stucky because he never sleeps, He's got
- 42:13Speaker 1: a good he's got a background in finance. He's risky
- 42:17Speaker 1: but still thoughtful about his risks. Has great with analytics.
- 42:21Speaker 1: But Leeboff did run for mayor in his Long Island
- 42:24Speaker 1: town and he only didn't win when he was like twenty.
- 42:28Speaker 1: And I think he didn't win because he went to
- 42:30Speaker 1: like some summer concert festival instead of showing up for
- 42:33Speaker 1: a debate. He would say he wasn't invited and then
- 42:35Speaker 1: went to the summer festival. I don't know if that's true.
- 42:38Speaker 1: But I do think Leeboff has a lot of empathy,
- 42:40Speaker 1: so maybe a Stucky Leeboff ticket would be the way
- 42:45Speaker 1: to go Stucky. Yeah, a slip deprived maniac with a
- 42:49Speaker 1: financial background sounds like exactly the kind of person, very savvy.
- 42:58Speaker 1: I feel like I would also put ray Bun in there.
- 43:00Speaker 1: Raybon is freakishly smart. If we wanted like the freakishly
- 43:05Speaker 1: smart analytical ticket, we'd have to do Raybon in Kerner,
- 43:10Speaker 1: which I also think would be a really good ticket.
- 43:13Speaker 1: I look forward to raybonds four day State of the
- 43:16Speaker 1: Union address if he shows up because he is because
- 43:21Speaker 1: because the night before he might have gotten so drunk
- 43:24Speaker 1: he couldn't even bother to show up in time to
- 43:26Speaker 1: the State of the Union. That's right, Yeah, he didn't
- 43:28Speaker 1: know what times are Listen. These have been amazing questions,
- 43:31Speaker 1: and there's still more like what is sign that and
- 43:34Speaker 1: I do during the offseason? What are our thoughts on
- 43:36Speaker 1: a Sunday ticket moving to sort of a streaming service? Um?
- 43:41Speaker 1: What what do we think about different contests to enter?
- 43:44Speaker 1: So we will do another mail bag before the NFL
- 43:49Speaker 1: season begins again. If you have mail bad questions, send
- 43:53Speaker 1: them to podcasts at Action network dot com. Simon, Matt Mitchell,
- 43:57Speaker 1: and I will also send out a tweet before we
- 43:59Speaker 1: do our next mailbag episode just so people can weigh
- 44:02Speaker 1: in with questions directly. Um, but we appreciate listeners. We
- 44:06Speaker 1: appreciate you sending us questions. We appreciate you giving us feedback.
- 44:10Speaker 1: This has been the favorites from the Volume podcast Network
- 44:16Speaker 1: for Simon Hunter, for Matt Mitchell, I am Chad Moman.
- 44:19Speaker 1: Download rate review, subscribe, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, give us those
- 44:26Speaker 1: five star reviews. Say whatever you want in the comments.
- 44:29Speaker 1: We appreciate it. Feedback is a gift. Until next time,
- 44:33Speaker 1: I Love you,