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Nike, FedEx Latest to Pull Back Forecasts on Trump's Tariffs · Bloomberg Intelligence

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  Speaker 2: John is just reporting some disupporting numbers out of Nike,
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: out of FedEx. And I'm going to approach the analysts
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: we have from BI kind of the same way of
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  Speaker 2: my questioning, and let's start with Punham Goyle, senior US
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: retail and e commerce analysts, and we'll start with the
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  Speaker 2: Nike and put them The question I have for you
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  Speaker 2: is kind of the same one I'm going to have
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  Speaker 2: for Lee Klascal about FedEx and how much of the
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: were kind of the weaker than expected results was company specific,
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: i e. Not executing well versus maybe just a weakening
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: consumer out there. How does their applot in Nike, so Nike.
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  Speaker 3: With all companies specific and I would say that you
• 1:08
  Speaker 3: know a lot of this. We expected Nike's results will
• 1:12
  Speaker 3: stay weak until they get their inventory realigned with sales,
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  Speaker 3: and that's not going to happen overnight. It will take
• 1:17
  Speaker 3: at least two to three quarters at the minimum. So
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  Speaker 3: we do have some downside or some weak results for
• 1:24
  Speaker 3: the next few quarters. But I will say that they
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  Speaker 3: are making the right moves. The new CEO, Elliott Hill,
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  Speaker 3: has a plan that we think will work. It will
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  Speaker 3: drive Nike back to be the lead and get the
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  Speaker 3: mind share that it has held for so many decades.
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  Speaker 4: In that case, have we seen the bottom in the
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  Speaker 4: stock praise?
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  Speaker 3: Well, I mean the shares have clearly come off from
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  Speaker 3: their highs and they're down again today seven percent. I'd
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  Speaker 3: say the bad news is out. So from here they
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  Speaker 3: should continue to realign inventory. This upcoming fiscal fourth quarters
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  Speaker 3: of theirs is when they'll probably make the biggest push
• 2:01
  Speaker 3: and we should hopefully see inventory begin to normalize over
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  Speaker 3: the next two to three quarters.
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  Speaker 2: Compared to their competitors. This inventory issue, this I would argue,
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  Speaker 2: mismanagement of inventory. It feels to me, is it maturely
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: different than its competitors.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely, this is a Nike specific issue. So what
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  Speaker 3: happened here is that Nike has a lot of classic
• 2:22
  Speaker 3: inventory that just isn't resonating with customers, and therefore they
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  Speaker 3: have to find ways to clear that, which they'll do
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  Speaker 3: through their outlets and the value wholesale channels. The other competitors,
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  Speaker 3: if you're talking about Adidas, whom or others, they don't
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  Speaker 3: have this issue because they have the right inventory for
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  Speaker 3: the most part in place, and therefore they will not
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  Speaker 3: have as many discounts as Nike will have over the
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  Speaker 3: coming three to nine months.
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  Speaker 4: At the same time, though, they talked about gross margins
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  Speaker 4: being also impacted by tariffs, and that would be an
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  Speaker 4: industry issue.
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  Speaker 3: Right, the tariffs isn't an industry issue, but the decline
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  Speaker 3: that they guide it to, the four hundred to five
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  Speaker 3: hundred basis point decline and fiscal fourth quarter, the bulk
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  Speaker 3: of it is due to the markdowns that they will
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  Speaker 3: face as they clear this unwanted inventory. So terra stouts
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  Speaker 3: have an impact, but it's a very small part of
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  Speaker 3: that margin compression that they're forecasting.
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  Speaker 5: Put them.
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  Speaker 2: How did the company get in this position where they
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  Speaker 2: had this inventory that wasn't resonating with customers because I
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: think of Nike as like really on top of knowing
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  Speaker 2: what the customers want and delivering some really cool products.
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  Speaker 1: What happened?
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  Speaker 3: I think this all happened with the previous leadership when
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  Speaker 3: John Donaho came on board right around the pandemic, and
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  Speaker 3: he had a strategy to go digital, so essentially pulling
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  Speaker 3: out of many wholesale channels in a meaningful way where
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  Speaker 3: Nike was really focused on driving growth in digital. The
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  Speaker 3: product was changing, but it wasn't changing enough. You know.
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  Speaker 3: You saw, for example, they used a shoe and they
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  Speaker 3: just rolled out multiple color waves in it. There wasn't
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  Speaker 3: as much innovation as what the consumer is used to
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  Speaker 3: it from Nike. So it was execution. It was just
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  Speaker 3: not having the right product. And I think they're back
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  Speaker 3: on their game now. They have a leader at home
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  Speaker 3: that knows the product that was a merchant. So they
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  Speaker 3: do have some work to do, but I think they're
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  Speaker 3: moving in the right direction.
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  Speaker 4: Who took their share while they were stumbling and can
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  Speaker 4: they get it back?
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  Speaker 3: Everyone beyond the Hokah's, Adidas, you name it. I mean,
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  Speaker 3: you know, when I went to a foot locker. Let's
• 4:20
  Speaker 3: say seven years ago, it was largely Nike. Today, when
• 4:23
  Speaker 3: I walk into a foot locker, I see everything in there.
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  Speaker 3: I see Nike, I see ya, and I see hokah.
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  Speaker 3: So everyone took a little bit of it.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, hokas. I didn't even know what where they came from.
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  Speaker 2: But I see a lot of the kids around here
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  Speaker 2: wearing them well.
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  Speaker 4: And the adults too are starting to wear them. They're
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  Speaker 4: super cool.
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  Speaker 2: Well they're adults, but they're kids to me here at
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  Speaker 2: Bloomberg But even like the and they're wearing them to work,
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  Speaker 2: by the way, the.
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  Speaker 4: Older kids are still doing it, are they. Yeah, this
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  Speaker 4: is not just like a twenty five year old thing.
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  Speaker 4: This is a broader I think that David Weston has
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  Speaker 4: worn up.
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  Speaker 2: That's that was so disappointing to me on.
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  Speaker 4: So I don't know if that's one hundred percent true.
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  Speaker 4: It could be spending false rumors, but it could be true.
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  Speaker 4: All I put them, thanks, not really appreciate it. Put them. Goyle,
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  Speaker 4: Senior US e Commerce some retail analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence.
• 5:04
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• 5:18
  Speaker 4: This is Bloomberg Intelligence Radio. Still a top tay for
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  Speaker 4: the market. SMP is off by seven tenths of one percent,
• 5:23
  Speaker 4: of nastacs off by about six tenths of one percent.
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  Speaker 4: It just feels like a steady as she goes. Yesterday
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  Speaker 4: during the close, you could see the SMP desperately wanting
• 5:30
  Speaker 4: to turn green, could not do it, and we just
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  Speaker 4: continue to kind of roll over. We also have about
• 5:35
  Speaker 4: four point five trillion dollars worth of options expiring too,
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  Speaker 4: So what do you do? Like, is it safety? Is
• 5:39
  Speaker 4: it run for the hills? Is it just wait till
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  Speaker 4: the second? Is it just hold everything until the back
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  Speaker 4: half of the year.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, it feels like April second seems like it's just
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  Speaker 2: gonna be a bigger and bigger date for some folks
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  Speaker 2: in this marketplace that we're just looking for a little
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  Speaker 2: sense of clarity on maybe one of these big issues
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: being the tariffs, and you know how broad they will
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  Speaker 2: be and whether and who will they be placed upon
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  Speaker 2: and take if you can take that out of the
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  Speaker 2: equation a little bit. Maybe that will be a positive catalyst.
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  Speaker 2: The uncertainty was called out by a lot of companies.
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  Speaker 2: We heard Nike earlier in the day. FedEx also in
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  Speaker 2: their stock trading off nine percent on some weaker than
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  Speaker 2: expected earnings. That's a fifty two week low for that stock.
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  Speaker 2: Lee Klascal joins is he's a senior transport logistics and
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  Speaker 2: shipping analysts who follows FedEx for Bloomberg Intelligence. Lee, I'm
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  Speaker 2: gonna ask kind of the same question I asked of
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  Speaker 2: Putnam Goyle about Nike, which is how much of the
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  Speaker 2: underperformance in FedEx results was due to just maybe the
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  Speaker 2: market being a little softer, with the consumer being a
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  Speaker 2: little softer, or FedEx specific issues.
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  Speaker 5: Hey, Paul, I think it's a lot has to do
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  Speaker 5: with the fact that the macros is a little weaker
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  Speaker 5: than they thought. And you know, the weakness that they
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  Speaker 5: were seeing is in the business to business biomes as
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  Speaker 5: well as the industrial economy. You know, they have a
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  Speaker 5: lot of exposure to the industrial economy, and their FedEx
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  Speaker 5: free business just are less than truckload business. Uh. That
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  Speaker 5: business kind of disappointed on the earnings while it's a
• 7:07
  Speaker 5: parcel business express business. Uh, slightly bet expectations. You know,
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  Speaker 5: the company is going through a major transformation. It's been
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  Speaker 5: operated as a uh kind of bloated concern for a
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  Speaker 5: number of years. Uh. I know, over the last couple
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  Speaker 5: of years, they've been taking proactive steps into kind of
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  Speaker 5: writing that and reducing costs. They're also you know, doing
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  Speaker 5: things that that that management thought was kind of taboo,
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  Speaker 5: if you will. They're now uh uh combining their ground
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  Speaker 5: and express networks in certain regions, and they're gonna, you know,
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  Speaker 5: eventually do that in the United States. Right now, it's
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  Speaker 5: being done in Canada. Uh they're re uh uh restructuring
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  Speaker 5: their their air network uh and and the and and
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  Speaker 5: the really goal is to is to to build profitable density.
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  Speaker 5: And the problem is that they've you know, they've generated
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  Speaker 5: a lot of cost savings, but some of that cost
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  Speaker 5: savings has gotten lost because the macro just isn't as
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  Speaker 5: strong as maybe they thought it's going to be. And
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  Speaker 5: looking forward, I think it's very difficult for FedEx or
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  Speaker 5: really anyone that deals with the economy to kind of
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  Speaker 5: forecast where they think volumes are going to go, because
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  Speaker 5: we really don't know. There's so much uncertainty. As you
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  Speaker 5: mentioned earlier, whether it's you know, the risk from tariffs,
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  Speaker 5: whether it's the inflationary risk that could come from tariff,
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  Speaker 5: whether it's getting rid of the dominimus exemptions for low
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  Speaker 5: valued freight out of China. There's a lot of things
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  Speaker 5: that could weigh on results, at least looking into the
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  Speaker 5: near future.
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  Speaker 4: For companies like these, what winds up being their base
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  Speaker 4: case when it comes to tariffs and trade, Like, they've
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  Speaker 4: got to do something, they got to say something. So
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  Speaker 4: what's their base case?
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  Speaker 5: I don't really know if they have a base case.
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  Speaker 5: The base case is that we're going to operate in
• 8:50
  Speaker 5: the in the environment that is given to us, and
• 8:53
  Speaker 5: it's not going to be special to us because you know,
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  Speaker 5: our major competitor or EUPS is going to have to
• 8:58
  Speaker 5: deal with a similar situation. And so I think they
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  Speaker 5: just want to know what the rules of the road
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  Speaker 5: are so then they can kind of operate, you know.
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  Speaker 5: As you know, a lot of companies are holding back
• 9:08
  Speaker 5: on CAPEX because they just don't know, you know, are
• 9:11
  Speaker 5: we going to is investing in Mexico a good thing
• 9:15
  Speaker 5: or a bad thing for US manufacturers? It just there's
• 9:19
  Speaker 5: really a lot of things that are up in the air.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's interesting. I'm looking at the kind of the
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: earnings estaments out there LYE on the Bloomberg terminal, and
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: you know, the streets kind of got fifteen percent earnings
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: growth starting in their fiscal twenty six year. They're may
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: twenty six year. Over the next couple of years, there's
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: stock trades are like eleven, i know, twelve times multiple
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: earnings multiple. That looks pretty attractive, But I guess you
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: have to buy off on management's ability to execute, right.
• 9:46
  Speaker 5: Yeah, we don't do buyhole sell here at Bloomberg Intelligence,
• 9:49
  Speaker 5: as you know. But you know, at the end of
• 9:51
  Speaker 5: the day, the thing that they are doing today, when
• 9:55
  Speaker 5: the demand environment will be is less volatile and more predictable,
• 10:01
  Speaker 5: will be very good for margins. It's just like, you know,
• 10:05
  Speaker 5: how long are you willing to wait for that to happen?
• 10:07
  Speaker 5: You know, is it going to be four years until
• 10:09
  Speaker 5: things normalized or is it going to be in six
• 10:11
  Speaker 5: months when things normalize. We just really don't know. And
• 10:14
  Speaker 5: there's a lot of other things that can happen as well.
• 10:16
  Speaker 5: You know, the Trump administration has talked about, you know,
• 10:20
  Speaker 5: adding fees and fines to you know, ships that are
• 10:23
  Speaker 5: not made in the US that come to dock in
• 10:25
  Speaker 5: the US that could have an impact on air freight,
• 10:27
  Speaker 5: could move stuff to air freight because it becomes I
• 10:31
  Speaker 5: guess more reasonable for certain items. So there's a lot
• 10:34
  Speaker 5: of different things that can happen. We just don't know.
• 10:36
  Speaker 5: As I mentioned earlier, with the rules of the road
• 10:38
  Speaker 5: are which are critical for us to figure out where
• 10:41
  Speaker 5: things are headed from here because you know, GDP expectations
• 10:45
  Speaker 5: have been moderating as you know, and these companies FedEx
• 10:48
  Speaker 5: and ups are tied to that.
• 10:50
  Speaker 4: Hayley, we really appreciate it ly classic Albumb're intelligence and
• 10:53
  Speaker 4: your transport logistics and shipping analysts.
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast just live weekdays
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• 11:11
  Speaker 4: Remember when we were all going to get this rate
• 11:12
  Speaker 4: cutting cycle and it was going to be really great
• 11:14
  Speaker 4: for commercial real estate and everything was going to level
• 11:16
  Speaker 4: out and stabilize, Well, that seems to be definitely put
• 11:18
  Speaker 4: on pause. Add in the economic uncertainty and it raises
• 11:21
  Speaker 4: a lot of questions as to what happens to that sector.
• 11:24
  Speaker 4: Hassan naj is a CEO of Marcus Millichap. They are
• 11:28
  Speaker 4: a commercial real estate firm. They're based in California. But
• 11:31
  Speaker 4: he's here in the studio. A lot of economic uncertainty
• 11:35
  Speaker 4: and the fed on pause. What does that mean for Cire, Good.
• 11:38
  Speaker 6: Morning, great to be with you, thanks for having me back.
• 11:41
  Speaker 6: It means the fundamentals are very well intact. It means
• 11:45
  Speaker 6: the enthusiasm that we saw post election because of the
• 11:48
  Speaker 6: election outcome being favorable to economic growth and especially real
• 11:52
  Speaker 6: estate tax treatment with the twenty seventeen tax reduction and
• 11:56
  Speaker 6: Jobs Act, more likely to be extended still, but you're
• 12:01
  Speaker 6: absolutely right. In the near term, we've seen a lot
• 12:05
  Speaker 6: of our clients just pause for a minute to see
• 12:08
  Speaker 6: what happens with tariffs, to see what happens with the economy.
• 12:11
  Speaker 6: The slowdown is now beginning to sound more like a
• 12:14
  Speaker 6: potential recession, although the data doesn't quite support that just yet.
• 12:18
  Speaker 6: But there is more near term concern once the dust
• 12:22
  Speaker 6: settles with all of these kind of a week to
• 12:25
  Speaker 6: week disruptions and the headlines and so on, I think
• 12:29
  Speaker 6: those positive fundamentals and the essential enthusiasm that our clients
• 12:35
  Speaker 6: feel will come back into the marketplace.
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: I thought the lending market for commercial real estate today,
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: if I wanted to go build a multi apartment building
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: in Middletown, America, will my local bank lend to me
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: or do I have to go to alternative sources?
• 12:50
  Speaker 6: Well, it depends very much by the project. So if
• 12:53
  Speaker 6: we're talking about construction financing, that was the that is
• 12:56
  Speaker 6: the most difficult to get right now because there is
• 12:59
  Speaker 6: so much more more cautioned by lenders than we've seen
• 13:02
  Speaker 6: in normal times. However, on the flip side of it,
• 13:06
  Speaker 6: there's way too much worry about distress sales and distress
• 13:10
  Speaker 6: becoming contagion and banks having to mark down on lots
• 13:13
  Speaker 6: of portfolios. Have not seen it, haven't seen it because
• 13:16
  Speaker 6: of the fundamentals being healthy and lenders not being motivated
• 13:19
  Speaker 6: by marking to market and dumping a bunch of product
• 13:22
  Speaker 6: at a big discount. And you have to remember, commercial
• 13:25
  Speaker 6: real estate is vast. It's not just office space, it's retail,
• 13:28
  Speaker 6: it's apartments, it's self storage units.
• 13:30
  Speaker 4: Well, well, let's talk about the apartment part because in terms
• 13:33
  Speaker 4: of building new supply, talk about uncertainty. It's a labor issue.
• 13:36
  Speaker 4: It's a lumber issue, it's a steal issue, it's a
• 13:38
  Speaker 4: supply issue. I mean, that is material risk for that sector,
• 13:43
  Speaker 4: very much so.
• 13:44
  Speaker 6: But any more constraint on new development is actually positive
• 13:49
  Speaker 6: for the industry because we've been building a lot of
• 13:50
  Speaker 6: apartments over the last few years. Before all of this
• 13:54
  Speaker 6: tariff talk. We saw a fifty to seventy percent decline
• 13:58
  Speaker 6: in permits and new construction starts in the last let's
• 14:02
  Speaker 6: say six months or so, which is very positive for
• 14:05
  Speaker 6: the industry because there was some overbuilding going on in
• 14:07
  Speaker 6: about five or six metros. On the office front, I
• 14:11
  Speaker 6: have to say, especially here in New York, most of
• 14:14
  Speaker 6: your audience probably is unaware that the office market is
• 14:18
  Speaker 6: actually coming back a lot faster than people would have expected.
• 14:22
  Speaker 6: Just here in New York, the second half of twenty
• 14:25
  Speaker 6: twenty four showed the most absorption of office space we've
• 14:28
  Speaker 6: seen since the pandemic recovery. Actually, about eight million square
• 14:33
  Speaker 6: feet between downtown and Midtown Manhattan were absorbed in the
• 14:36
  Speaker 6: second half of twenty twenty four. Vacancies came down more
• 14:38
  Speaker 6: than a full percentage point because companies are making such
• 14:42
  Speaker 6: a push to bring people back and the economy still expanding.
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: Have we seen any real distress sales in New York
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: or Boston or San Francisco a building that we'd all
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: know and oh boy, it just sold it fifty cents
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: on the dollar. I haven't seen too many of those stories.
• 14:58
  Speaker 4: Just to point out, he really want to see these stories.
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: I want to see these stories.
• 15:03
  Speaker 6: You've asked me about that before bottom of the market.
• 15:05
  Speaker 6: Sure there have been, but it's limited to obsolete, older
• 15:09
  Speaker 6: office space, usually in urban markets, that cannot be reused.
• 15:14
  Speaker 6: Anything that has a chance of retenanting being renovated is
• 15:20
  Speaker 6: not in the category of bargain basement pricing. It's only
• 15:24
  Speaker 6: the true obsolete office product that we've seen some older
• 15:28
  Speaker 6: shopping centers too, but not I get.
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: Pitched by Frans. My real estate friends got a new fund.
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: We're going out. We think we're close to the bottom.
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: I'm like, I'm not giving you anything because I'm not
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: sure where we are. I haven't seen that story that's
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: going to mark the bottom.
• 15:40
  Speaker 4: Well, that's the thing is that we always wait for it.
• 15:42
  Speaker 4: I know says it's a good opportunity, and then all
• 15:45
  Speaker 4: of a sudden, it's never seems to materializers that one
• 15:47
  Speaker 4: off that we didn't.
• 15:48
  Speaker 6: I'll have to tell you opportunity funds that have been
• 15:51
  Speaker 6: formed in the last two three years in anticipation of
• 15:53
  Speaker 6: this big buying opportunity have been very frustrated. So there's
• 15:56
  Speaker 6: situational distress, but there is no systemic.
• 15:59
  Speaker 4: Distress death buyers. From twenty sixteen, it had those funds
• 16:03
  Speaker 4: ready to go for the turn and get Nope, where's
• 16:06
  Speaker 4: that distressed debt turn? Regionally, what do you guys like
• 16:10
  Speaker 4: right now?
• 16:10
  Speaker 6: Well, the growth markets such as Texas, Arizona, Florida, Georgia.
• 16:15
  Speaker 6: I was just in Atlanta yesterday. We had a presentation
• 16:18
  Speaker 6: to about four hundred of our clients in that market.
• 16:21
  Speaker 6: Those continued to lead in demographics and job creation. I
• 16:25
  Speaker 6: think California is getting a bad rap and it's a
• 16:27
  Speaker 6: diamond in the rough. A lot of those real estate
• 16:30
  Speaker 6: prices have adjusted to the point where if you look
• 16:33
  Speaker 6: at the replacement cost, it makes this window off time
• 16:36
  Speaker 6: a very attractive one to get into commercial real estate
• 16:39
  Speaker 6: if you can stomach the near term, you know, oncertainty
• 16:42
  Speaker 6: around interest rates and so on. And we're seeing a
• 16:44
  Speaker 6: record capital on the sideline wanting to get back in.
• 16:47
  Speaker 6: There is a bit ask spread still in the marketplace,
• 16:49
  Speaker 6: but it's narrowing.
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: Yesan, thank you so much for joining us. We always
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: appreciate getting some of your time. I saw Naji, CEO
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: of Marcus and Milichep joining us here in our Bloomberg
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: in Directive Broker studio. He was like talking about commercial
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: real estate, and again, as I mentioned before, it's not
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: what I used to think. I used to think it's
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: just one big, monolithic marcial real estate, but so many subsectors.
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: Some are doing better than others here. But you know,
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: I have seen a couple of stories about San Francisco, LA.
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: Some big market buildings do change hands at a big discount,
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: but interesting.
• 17:20
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