Latest / Trillions / Can You Put Sports Into an ETF Yet?
Transcript
- 0:02Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio. News. This is basically betting
- 0:12Speaker 1: on how well the team is going to do. So
- 0:14Speaker 1: in a way, it's just like sports betting, but betting
- 0:17Speaker 1: on the strength of these teams. I think looking at
- 0:19Speaker 1: it through the lens of stock picking, essentially, and you're
- 0:22Speaker 1: basically just team picking here.
- 0:25Speaker 2: Welcome to Trillions. I'm Joel Weber.
- 0:27Speaker 1: I'm Athanasios Saravagas.
- 0:29Speaker 2: There are a bunch of new ETF filings this year
- 0:32Speaker 2: that have been all about sports. And now there's even more.
- 0:36Speaker 2: There's some new research from Bloomberg Intelligence about volatility shares,
- 0:41Speaker 2: which is filed for 32 funds using CME futures that
- 0:45Speaker 2: will be linked to official NHL performance data. 32 funds
- 0:50Speaker 2: because there are 32 teams in the NHL. Every team...
- 0:54Speaker 2: could potentially have its own ETF. Hope you like hockey.
- 0:59Speaker 2: But that's not all. This year, we're seeing this convergence
- 1:02Speaker 2: of the sports world and the ETF universe. One biggie
- 1:06Speaker 2: to watch, prediction market ETFs, which were filed earlier this year.
- 1:11Speaker 2: We've talked about them on previous episodes if you want
- 1:13Speaker 2: to go deeper. One that we haven't talked about as much,
- 1:17Speaker 2: another sports-related ETF filing with its own unique twist, the
- 1:22Speaker 2: subversive all-season sports ETF, which is an actively managed exchange-traded
- 1:26Speaker 2: fund that aims to basically just win a bunch of
- 1:29Speaker 2: sports bets. Nothing is actually approved yet here. These are
- 1:33Speaker 2: all just filings. But clearly, sports betting and prediction market
- 1:38Speaker 2: apps have shown ETF issuers what can happen when you
- 1:42Speaker 2: do this base well. The question, though, is also, why
- 1:46Speaker 2: do this in an ETF? Eric Balchunas is off for
- 1:50Speaker 2: this episode, so we've tapped one of our favorite ETF
- 1:53Speaker 2: regulars on Trillions, Athanasios Saraphagos, is an analyst with Bloomberg
- 1:59Speaker 2: Intelligence on Eric's team. We'll be filling in for him. Ethan,
- 2:03Speaker 2: pleasure to have you back on Trillions.
- 2:04Speaker 1: Thanks for having me back on.
- 2:06Speaker 2: This time on Trillions, the sports conversions. So, Ethan, one
- 2:11Speaker 2: of the things that's been happening with ETFs this year
- 2:15Speaker 2: has been a number of filings that are all sports related.
- 2:19Speaker 2: And we've talked about a little bit of that before,
- 2:21Speaker 2: but now there's a whole new range of filings that
- 2:26Speaker 2: just hit. So I want to discuss those with you today,
- 2:30Speaker 2: as well as the rest of the space. What's in
- 2:32Speaker 2: these newest filings?
- 2:33Speaker 1: So these new ones, basically, think about it like stock picking,
- 2:37Speaker 1: but you can actually bet on an NHL team. And
- 2:40Speaker 1: it's not like betting if they're going to win or
- 2:42Speaker 1: lose a game. It's literally betting on the strength of
- 2:45Speaker 1: the team. So if you think like the Rangers are
- 2:46Speaker 1: going to have a good year, you can actually buy
- 2:48Speaker 1: the Rangers ETF You have.
- 2:50Speaker 2: To care about the NHL, first of all. That's the prerequisite. Yeah.
- 2:53Speaker 1: You definitely need to know about hockey, which I admittedly
- 2:57Speaker 1: don't know that much about hockey. But they picked these
- 3:00Speaker 1: because there's already some futures that launched on the CME
- 3:03Speaker 1: that are tied to these. And I think if these
- 3:05Speaker 1: do well, we likely could see the other leagues come in,
- 3:09Speaker 1: NBA and NFL. But this is what they're starting with.
- 3:11Speaker 1: 32 different ETFs, 32 different teams. Again, it's sort of
- 3:15Speaker 1: just looking at the team like you're looking at a stock,
- 3:18Speaker 1: their roster, maybe, you know, with their schedules coming up,
- 3:21Speaker 1: you know, if they have momentum, all that, and you
- 3:23Speaker 1: can just bet on it, or you can even short it, right?
- 3:25Speaker 1: So let's say you like the Rangers, but hate the Canucks,
- 3:28Speaker 1: or so you can actually just short and play different spreads.
- 3:31Speaker 1: But yeah, it's this convergence of sports betting and ETFs
- 3:34Speaker 1: that is now sort of all coming together.
- 3:36Speaker 2: Okay, Ethan, what's actually in this ETF? I mean, these
- 3:40Speaker 2: are filings, right? So nothing's real yet. But like what
- 3:44Speaker 2: would you own if you were to purchase a share
- 3:47Speaker 2: of this?
- 3:48Speaker 1: I think you own nothing, right? Because what's interesting, there
- 3:53Speaker 1: are stocks out there that you could buy shares in
- 3:55Speaker 1: a sports team, right? Like Manchester United or the Braves even.
- 3:58Speaker 1: So you actually like have claimed ticket sales and things
- 4:01Speaker 1: like that and you could benefit from it.
- 4:02Speaker 2: There's like revenue that you can capture.
- 4:04Speaker 1: Totally. So if the team does well or you can
- 4:06Speaker 1: even buy stock in MSG, right? And that's not just
- 4:08Speaker 1: the Knicks. But if they do well and ticket sales
- 4:10Speaker 1: go up, you have a piece of that. This is
- 4:13Speaker 1: basically betting on how well the team is going to do.
- 4:16Speaker 1: So in a way, it's just like sports betting, but
- 4:19Speaker 1: betting on the strength of these teams. So if you
- 4:21Speaker 1: like changes they made in the off season, or if
- 4:24Speaker 1: you think they have a week schedule coming up, you
- 4:26Speaker 1: can actually buy the team that you like. I think
- 4:29Speaker 1: looking at it through the lens of like stock picking, essentially,
- 4:32Speaker 1: and you're basically just team picking here.
- 4:34Speaker 2: What do we need to know about futures-based ETFs?
- 4:36Speaker 1: I think one thing to think about with these is, illiquidity, right?
- 4:40Speaker 1: Like if they're not going to be really popular, you know,
- 4:43Speaker 1: how are market makers going to handle these? Two, what
- 4:47Speaker 1: happens like the off season, right? So, you know, they
- 4:50Speaker 1: don't play- Oh, Stanley Cup, what's going down? So, you know,
- 4:53Speaker 1: obviously there's news that comes out, there's trades and they
- 4:55Speaker 1: can move in that, but it's going to be a
- 4:56Speaker 1: couple of months of it just doing nothing. And then
- 4:59Speaker 1: obviously with futures, there's roll costs. These are going to
- 5:02Speaker 1: roll every month. They're going to reset at the end
- 5:04Speaker 1: of the season. So there's spreads in there that you
- 5:06Speaker 1: have to know Or be cognizant of. But that said,
- 5:11Speaker 1: I honestly don't know how these would behave. This is
- 5:12Speaker 1: literally a new area of the market. So, you know,
- 5:15Speaker 1: how someone might hedge this, how it might be formed.
- 5:18Speaker 1: Maybe just the bigger team ones have more interest in
- 5:22Speaker 1: some of the smaller ones. But yeah, it's definitely going
- 5:23Speaker 1: to be pretty interesting to see how these... It also.
- 5:27Speaker 2: Seems kind of complicated. Like, why not just use a
- 5:32Speaker 2: bookie or a sports betting app or... A prediction market app,
- 5:37Speaker 2: you know, like why do we need an ETF for this?
- 5:40Speaker 1: Yeah, we debate this on the team all the time.
- 5:43Speaker 1: And normally when you think about the success of an ETF,
- 5:46Speaker 1: it's because it's made something easier, right? It's giving you
- 5:48Speaker 1: access to crypto or bonds in Latin America or something
- 5:52Speaker 1: like that. I use the CalSheet app, right? And it's very,
- 5:55Speaker 1: very easy. It's very seamless. You can easily fund it.
- 5:58Speaker 1: You can have all sorts of different bets. I read
- 6:01Speaker 1: through this methodology document of these NHL ETFs. And there's
- 6:04Speaker 1: 55 different inputs. So basically- 55?
- 6:08Speaker 2: It's crazy. What do they count as inputs?
- 6:10Speaker 1: There's like intra-game stats. So like basically if there's a penalty, right?
- 6:15Speaker 1: Or how many goals your team scores, how many blocks
- 6:17Speaker 1: your goalie has, all that impacts the score. Then there's
- 6:21Speaker 1: sort of end of month stats. How many, are they
- 6:24Speaker 1: on a win streak, right? All these things sort of
- 6:26Speaker 1: factor in. So it's very, very complicated. Some of the
- 6:29Speaker 1: things that I think about is like, well, a lot
- 6:31Speaker 1: of times when the game is on, the market's closed, right?
- 6:35Speaker 1: And something with like cow sheet, that's always continuously running, right?
- 6:39Speaker 1: 24 hours a day, you can bet during the games.
- 6:42Speaker 1: I feel like when you're watching a game, you want
- 6:43Speaker 1: to maybe make bets in that moment. This is a
- 6:45Speaker 1: little bit harder with the ETF. So this is maybe
- 6:48Speaker 1: a longer term play. Like a diehard fan. Yeah, exactly.
- 6:51Speaker 1: You really love this team.
- 6:53Speaker 2: This is our year.
- 6:53Speaker 1: Yeah, and you buy the jersey and you buy the ETF,
- 6:56Speaker 1: I guess.
- 6:58Speaker 2: Maybe the shares of the ETF come with jerseys that
- 7:01Speaker 2: you buy.
- 7:01Speaker 1: That's actually a pretty good selling point. I would buy
- 7:04Speaker 1: the ETF just for the jersey.
- 7:05Speaker 2: We're going to be in the merch business, but also
- 7:07Speaker 2: in investment management. So why... Why the NHL again? Is
- 7:12Speaker 2: this just because CME has some hockey heads and decided
- 7:18Speaker 2: to do some futures for the NHL?
- 7:20Speaker 1: That's a good question. I don't know. I'm thinking it
- 7:23Speaker 1: was probably easier to get a licensing agreement with the
- 7:25Speaker 1: NHL versus the NBA and the NFL. Also, the hockey
- 7:30Speaker 1: season is pretty long. I know MLB is longer, but
- 7:32Speaker 1: I think they had to start with a season that's
- 7:33Speaker 1: really long versus the NFL. So yeah, I think this
- 7:36Speaker 1: is why they started with the NHL teams. I know
- 7:39Speaker 1: probably most people are looking at it like, well, why NHL?
- 7:43Speaker 1: But I think this is probably the reason why they
- 7:44Speaker 1: went with that one.
- 7:45Speaker 2: But maybe it makes a good case study to start
- 7:47Speaker 2: with that too. And then you can take the results
- 7:50Speaker 2: to the big guys. Yeah, for sure.
- 7:52Speaker 1: If this does well, if anything, probably NBA and NFL
- 7:55Speaker 1: will be even more popular, right? So I think this
- 7:57Speaker 1: is a good sort of put, you know, dip your
- 8:00Speaker 1: toe in the water, see how these work, see if
- 8:01Speaker 1: there's any kind of remote interest.
- 8:03Speaker 2: Okay. So just a reminder, where does the filing go
- 8:05Speaker 2: from here? It's hitting the SEC and now it's going
- 8:08Speaker 2: to enter a little bit of autopsy period?
- 8:10Speaker 1: For sure. They're going to get, you know, there could
- 8:12Speaker 1: be comments. The thing is, while this is probably a
- 8:15Speaker 1: good likelihood is because it's CME backed, right? These futures
- 8:19Speaker 1: already exist, which are approved. So with that, I think
- 8:22Speaker 1: there's probably a good likelihood these could get launched. If
- 8:26Speaker 1: there wasn't any sort of backing like that, I would
- 8:28Speaker 1: probably be a little bit more skeptical. But I think
- 8:32Speaker 1: these have a pretty good chance of getting approved.
- 8:34Speaker 2: And there are 32 of them because there's one per team.
- 8:37Speaker 1: Yep, exactly.
- 8:38Speaker 2: 32.
- 8:38Speaker 1: If we don't have enough ETFs already.
- 8:43Speaker 2: I can't wait to see what the tickers are. They've
- 8:45Speaker 2: got to be like all over the place. Okay, so
- 8:48Speaker 2: the CME development with NHL. and these new ETF filings
- 8:54Speaker 2: is certainly like maybe one type of way that ETFs
- 8:58Speaker 2: are getting into sports. But there's other things that have
- 9:02Speaker 2: been happening this year. Why is all of this happening
- 9:05Speaker 2: in the first place? And like, why are ETFs even
- 9:09Speaker 2: looking at sports as like sort of this next great frontier?
- 9:12Speaker 1: So recently, there was this really great Bloomberg News article,
- 9:15Speaker 1: and it was actually looking at Gen Z's sort of
- 9:18Speaker 1: view of asset classes and a lot of them were
- 9:21Speaker 1: thinking of sports betting as an asset class right so
- 9:24Speaker 1: actually looking at this not only for fun but actually
- 9:26Speaker 1: like i'm going to put real money into this i'm
- 9:29Speaker 1: going to add this as an investment so i think
- 9:31Speaker 1: that is happening along with just etf filings are getting
- 9:35Speaker 1: a little crazy yeah right and.
- 9:37Speaker 2: That's what it something's happened maybe it was bitcoin where
- 9:41Speaker 2: it was just like you know what we really can
- 9:42Speaker 2: put anything into an etf And now it's like, how
- 9:45Speaker 2: much of the sports universe can we put into it? Oh, totally.
- 9:48Speaker 1: They put single stocks, right? So we're back to this
- 9:50Speaker 1: very speculative investing culture. People want to make bigger, bigger bets.
- 9:56Speaker 1: They're willing to go more all in on stuff. And
- 9:58Speaker 1: I think you know, leverage is sort of tapped out.
- 10:00Speaker 1: They have all these single stock ones. Now it's like
- 10:03Speaker 1: sports betting. And this coincides with the growth of things
- 10:06Speaker 1: like Polymarket and CalSheet, right? And you're seeing sort of
- 10:09Speaker 1: the volumes there. So I think if they just put
- 10:11Speaker 1: in the ETF, it's like, well... And I don't know
- 10:14Speaker 1: how they'll leapfrog this, but let's say if you're underage, right,
- 10:16Speaker 1: and you can't open a sports betting account or a
- 10:19Speaker 1: sports book, you could buy an ETF, right? That sort
- 10:21Speaker 1: of kind of does the same thing. Yeah, so I
- 10:23Speaker 1: think this is just feeding that behavior.
- 10:26Speaker 2: So let's just lay out the various things that are
- 10:29Speaker 2: also in filing stage. So there's the futures-based stuff that
- 10:33Speaker 2: the NHL is doing, prediction markets, and what's the likelihood
- 10:37Speaker 2: of that in Bloomberg Intelligence? You guys would classify that
- 10:40Speaker 2: as a novel idea, right?
- 10:42Speaker 1: Yeah. And I think the NHL ones are novel too.
- 10:44Speaker 1: Novel too.
- 10:44Speaker 2: Okay.
- 10:45Speaker 1: Yes. So this one, I know it's a fine line
- 10:47Speaker 1: between like prediction markets and like what these NHL ones
- 10:50Speaker 1: are doing versus like the prediction ones more binary, right?
- 10:53Speaker 1: So you're betting on a Super Bowl winner. If that
- 10:55Speaker 1: happens or it doesn't happen, you're going to win or
- 10:57Speaker 1: lose all your money.
- 10:58Speaker 2: That's it.
- 10:59Speaker 1: Some of the issues are starting to do these too.
- 11:01Speaker 1: And not only with sports, with other like sort of
- 11:04Speaker 1: economic news too, but- Yeah.
- 11:07Speaker 2: The Fed would be central to some of these, I think.
- 11:10Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly. Or a recession, things like that. But yeah,
- 11:13Speaker 1: you can pick the Super Bowl winner, which again, we're
- 11:16Speaker 1: obviously very pro-ETF, right? I don't see the reason why
- 11:19Speaker 1: you would do that versus doing it on CalSheet. I
- 11:24Speaker 1: don't understand what advantage the ETF is really giving you.
- 11:28Speaker 1: But yeah, these are in filing. Nothing's been approved yet.
- 11:31Speaker 1: Those ones I think could see more skepticism from the SEC. Again,
- 11:36Speaker 1: these are all going to be backed by Kalshi and stuff. Yeah,
- 11:38Speaker 1: there's sort of that end of the sports betting spectrum
- 11:42Speaker 1: happening as well.
- 11:43Speaker 2: And then the other one that we, I think, have
- 11:46Speaker 2: briefly mentioned previously, the subversive all-season sports ETF, yet another filing.
- 11:51Speaker 2: Great Matt Levine column about it in Money Stuff a
- 11:54Speaker 2: couple months ago. What's that strategy look like?
- 11:57Speaker 1: This is actually kind of brilliant because I think they've
- 11:59Speaker 1: This PM found a way that you could just fund
- 12:02Speaker 1: their gambling habits, right? So, this one essentially you would
- 12:05Speaker 1: be giving your money to this fund and they'd be
- 12:07Speaker 1: making all these different bets, right? Based on some algorithm
- 12:11Speaker 1: or they're looking where maybe odds might be.
- 12:13Speaker 2: It's literally a sports book.
- 12:14Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly. And then so, this PM would make the
- 12:17Speaker 1: decisions for you. So, it's almost like a basket of bets, right? So,
- 12:21Speaker 1: they'll be using some algorithm to figure out what these
- 12:24Speaker 1: odds aren't right. We actually think you should bet on this.
- 12:28Speaker 1: But again... If I'm using the app, I think part
- 12:31Speaker 1: of the most fun of betting is I want that
- 12:34Speaker 1: rush of betting. I don't go to Vegas and give
- 12:38Speaker 1: you my money to gamble.
- 12:40Speaker 2: I mean, I could encourage you to do that. It's
- 12:41Speaker 2: more fun for me that way.
- 12:43Speaker 1: I don't know. Don't you want to go put the
- 12:45Speaker 1: numbers down on the roulette table? I want someone else
- 12:47Speaker 1: to do it.
- 12:48Speaker 2: I'm going to give you money and you can use
- 12:49Speaker 2: your Calchi to do it for me.
- 12:50Speaker 1: I don't want to watch someone else have all the fun.
- 12:52Speaker 1: So that's part of the... The reason why, this could
- 12:56Speaker 1: maybe do okay.
- 12:57Speaker 2: Well, I mean, if he's really good at picking winners, like,
- 13:00Speaker 2: I mean, it could work out.
- 13:02Speaker 1: Eric had this great analogy. Remember the movie Casino? Sam Rothstein, right?
- 13:06Speaker 1: He's basically like him. And he's like the best, like,
- 13:09Speaker 1: bookie in the country. So, like, if he was running
- 13:12Speaker 1: an ETF, I don't know, I'd probably give him money
- 13:14Speaker 1: to run. But yeah, and so there's that as well
- 13:16Speaker 1: to sort of a more diversified, quote unquote, basket of
- 13:20Speaker 1: bets that they're making.
- 13:21Speaker 2: How do you think that SEC will look at that
- 13:24Speaker 2: one in the novelty scale?
- 13:25Speaker 1: That one, I think, could probably more likelihood than the
- 13:29Speaker 1: prediction markets one. Again, this is all on a scale.
- 13:32Speaker 1: That one, maybe. And I can actually see people making
- 13:35Speaker 1: the case that this is somehow uncorrelated asset class, right?
- 13:39Speaker 1: I'm just doing an allocation of these random bets and
- 13:42Speaker 1: Over the long term, maybe it's uncorrelated and it makes
- 13:45Speaker 1: money for me. So I could see it from that angle. Again,
- 13:48Speaker 1: I think that's a stretch. Yeah, that's one. It's a
- 13:51Speaker 1: little bit more diversified. I think maybe has a better
- 13:53Speaker 1: chance of having some success.
- 13:55Speaker 2: Okay, just to continue to try and zoom out a
- 13:58Speaker 2: little bit. What's actually happening here, to me, it feels
- 14:02Speaker 2: like we're at yet another, you know, highs of a
- 14:06Speaker 2: bull market. And there's a thing that starts to happen,
- 14:10Speaker 2: which is, things get really experimental and we saw it
- 14:13Speaker 2: previously a couple of years ago and it feels like
- 14:15Speaker 2: we're back there. What do you think of that?
- 14:17Speaker 1: Oh, I mean, we always, we've wanted a bull market.
- 14:19Speaker 1: This is what it looks like, right? Yeah. You kind
- 14:22Speaker 1: of start to get these filings that are, you know,
- 14:26Speaker 1: they're really pushing the envelope and I've learned not to
- 14:30Speaker 1: dismiss these and they might sound ridiculous. And we thought
- 14:33Speaker 1: stuff sounded ridiculous five years ago and now they're like, yeah,
- 14:36Speaker 1: they're like normal and they're big businesses in the ETF market. So,
- 14:40Speaker 1: You know, even the SEC, it's not their job to
- 14:44Speaker 1: tell you.
- 14:45Speaker 2: If it's wise.
- 14:45Speaker 1: They told us this recently. It's not their job. It's
- 14:48Speaker 1: not my job to tell you. We're not judging. Yeah, exactly.
- 14:52Speaker 1: Does it help by bringing these products into the market? No,
- 14:55Speaker 1: it encourages a lot of bad behavior, but we're not
- 14:57Speaker 1: here to tell you that. But again, you know, I
- 15:00Speaker 1: think it also just shows how much people want stuff
- 15:05Speaker 1: in an ETF, right? And just how much the ETF
- 15:07Speaker 1: has grown and what they're willing to put into it.
- 15:10Speaker 1: But yeah, we've totally just moved away from broad diversified
- 15:14Speaker 1: baskets of stocks. Now you're literally just picking specific things.
- 15:18Speaker 2: Well, hopefully it's both and maybe one more than the other.
- 15:22Speaker 2: But it's also just worth mentioning though, I mean, maybe
- 15:26Speaker 2: part of the reason for all of this is in
- 15:28Speaker 2: your Calci update, you might be betting with $ 100, but
- 15:32Speaker 2: once you get into a brokerage, there's a lot more
- 15:34Speaker 2: money that you can be playing with.
- 15:36Speaker 1: Oh, yeah, no, that's a great point. And think about
- 15:38Speaker 1: then options and stuff tied around that, right? So think
- 15:42Speaker 1: about how insane just 2x levered single stocks are. There's
- 15:45Speaker 1: options on those, right, that are way more levered. So,
- 15:49Speaker 1: you know, if these hit and now you could have
- 15:50Speaker 1: options around these and you have this whole ecosystem built
- 15:53Speaker 1: around it, it makes it very easy, you know, to
- 15:57Speaker 1: open up in your account. Yeah, yeah, it's definitely a
- 15:59Speaker 1: pretty interesting time.
- 16:01Speaker 2: All right. More followings to watch. Ethan, thanks for joining
- 16:03Speaker 2: me on Trades.
- 16:04Speaker 1: Thanks for having me on.
- 16:12Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to Trillions. Until next time, you can
- 16:15Speaker 2: find us on the Bloomberg Terminal, Bloomberg.com, Apple Podcasts, Spotify,
- 16:20Speaker 2: or wherever else you like to listen. We'd love to
- 16:22Speaker 2: hear from you. Hit us up on social. Trillions is
- 16:25Speaker 2: produced by Magnus Hendriksen and Kishav Pandya. Amy Keene is
- 16:29Speaker 2: our executive producer. Cheryl Brumley is the head of Bloomberg Podcasts.
- 16:34Speaker 1: Bye.