Latest / No Dirt No Flowers Podcast / Mid Year Market & Crop Update

Transcript

Mid Year Market & Crop Update · No Dirt No Flowers Podcast

0:00
Hello everyone, we are finally back with a brand
0:03
new episode of No Dirt No Flowers. Apologies
0:06
for the delay between episodes, but with work
0:08
travel and summer travel and the crop season
0:11
in full swing, it took a minute to get everybody
0:14
in the office to record a new episode. But here
0:16
we are with a brand new episode, as well as several
0:19
other coming in the near future, including one
0:22
with everyone's favorite guest star, Leslie Roy.
0:26
We plan to record something with him in the next
0:28
couple weeks, and he might be joined by a special
0:32
guest as well, so keep an eye out for that. On
0:35
today's episode, Mike and Drew discuss a mid
0:38
-season crop update, what they're seeing in the
0:41
field, what they're seeing out in the market,
0:43
and they will also be discussing the current
0:46
hop stock situation, and also go over the current
0:49
acreage report. Also a little house cleaning.
0:52
If you haven't already, be sure to watch the
0:55
first episode of Quality Check with Gasworks
0:57
Brewing. Basically, it's a series where I sit
1:03
around and talk to brewers while we drink beer.
1:06
It's super fun, and we should be recording the
1:09
next one within a month and have that out before
1:11
harvest, so keep an eye out for that. On that
1:14
note, I hand it over to Mike and Drew to discuss
1:17
the mid -season crop report. Enjoy the pod. We
1:30
need to do the musings with Mike, like Mike's
1:33
passion project show. Well, my passion projects
1:36
are diminishing or diminished. No, that's not
1:40
true. You were just talking about making a catwalk
1:42
for a boat bar that overlooks the hot piles.
1:47
It was just a short spurt. Now I'm back to how
1:51
I walked in this morning. No, I'm not. What are
1:53
you feeling passionate about today? I don't know.
1:59
I've been in kind of a negative Nelly mood this
2:01
week. I mean, there's tons of things that I'm
2:03
passionate about, but it's hard for me to really
2:06
engage in that thought process right now. You
2:09
know, what's got you so negative? Would you say
2:13
the ebbs and flows? The ebbs and flows, yes.
2:17
Two steps forward, one step back, one step forward,
2:20
two steps back. That whole thing. It'd be nice
2:26
if it was just a linear slow walk forward. It
2:29
would be. But here we are. Episode 25. Of No
2:36
Dirt, No Flowers. Hey, one thing to all of our
2:42
listeners that reach out to us and tell us or
2:45
give us feedback. We appreciate that. Oh, yeah.
2:49
It shows just how far the reach is. It's reaching
2:55
all corners of the world. How many continents
2:56
have we been listening to on there? There's all
3:00
time. We are all over the U .S. Australia, New
3:05
Zealand, U .K. Whoa, Scandinavia. Oh, really?
3:11
Portugal, maybe? We're in South America. We got
3:16
anyone in Greenland listening to us? Not yet.
3:19
Okay. What areas of the world do we need to break
3:23
into? I'm seeing nothing in Africa or Asia, but
3:27
I mean, we need to first get some sponsors. Yeah.
3:33
Oh, whoa. We have it Asia. We've been in India.
3:39
Yeah. And like Singapore or something like that.
3:45
All right. 341 different locations. That's pretty
3:50
cool. Yeah. Feel good about this. And again,
3:57
I think this only is the download. Yeah. So we're
4:02
streaming worldwide. Literally. That's pretty
4:06
great. Time for autographs. Oh, yeah. You know,
4:13
screw it. There's not a lot going on in Russia.
4:18
Super interesting. Relations with Russia and
4:22
the U .S. are not, like, super healthy right
4:25
now. Yeah, but no ginger and flowers is neutral.
4:28
That is true. We try to be neutral. Yeah, I think
4:33
so. Okay, what are we doing here? We got doing
4:38
mid -year review? Yeah. Let's start off with
4:43
the crop. It's been a little while since this
4:44
has been you and I bantering back and forth.
4:48
That's true. I think road rambles might have
4:51
been the last one. Yeah. Which I heard mixed
4:53
reviews. Some people loved it. Some people, well,
4:57
they turned it off. I actually turned it off.
5:01
Would you say that it was divisive? Oh, no. I
5:05
don't see that. Okay. Okay. So we're in the middle
5:10
of the World Cup. Beer consumption is strong.
5:12
Hell yeah. We've been all around the country
5:15
for the last few, last month. That's why we haven't
5:20
recorded. Sales trips. Sales trips. And I would
5:25
say good news that we're seeing out there. So
5:29
I guess we'll come back to the crop later. Yeah.
5:32
Good news we're seeing out there is people are
5:35
buying hops again. That's exciting. It seems
5:41
like there's a lot more optimism than there has
5:43
been. Coming out of CBC, that was probably the
5:46
most positive CBC we've seen in, what, three
5:49
years, four years? Mm -hmm. And now we're seeing
5:52
opportunities open up again. That's exciting.
5:59
What is very interesting that I've seen out there
6:04
that'll tie into some other stuff that I've prepared
6:07
right here with my notes. That's not quite the
6:10
pile of notes that Les Roy would come prepared
6:12
with, but it's a start. Yeah, we need to get
6:16
him back on. We're a little due. We are due.
6:18
I think he might be our most popular guest. Well,
6:24
once we get him with some other collaborative
6:28
guests. This is true. I might be pretty excited.
6:32
Okay. Anyhow. uh one thing that continues to
6:37
happen out there that's got me nervous as can
6:39
be is we are still seeing brewers not contracting
6:46
and just buying spot and i think that is a train
6:52
wreck for the entire industry for them for us
6:55
so a common in years past I can remember similar
7:04
conversations happening on the backside of market
7:08
corrections. It's an interesting question. Has
7:12
a brewer actually ever not been able to brew
7:15
beer because of a lack of contracting? I'm sure
7:20
it's happened, but I'm talking more broader scale.
7:24
I think absolutely. Now there's... probably layers
7:31
to that question, like, A, can a brewer brew
7:33
a certain brand like a craft brewer? I'm sure,
7:38
especially in the ramp -up, there weren't certain
7:42
varieties available for them to brew a specific
7:46
beer, but there were hops available to brew beer.
7:51
Alpha, we know that even in the big shortages,
7:55
the hops still made it to brewers, and we were
7:58
able to get through that. through some crazy
8:01
price fluctuations. This one feels to me a little
8:08
bit different. So I've got, um, and we can put
8:13
the links. Most people have looked at these.
8:15
Yeah. We should put the links up on that. But
8:18
yeah, if you go to USA hops, um, and look on
8:21
stats, there's two really interesting documents.
8:26
One is the hop stock report, which, shows continued
8:31
decline in hop stocks. For like the first time
8:36
in how long? Well, this graph goes 20 years,
8:46
and it has been on the upswing. You know, there
8:50
was a couple years of stability and maybe slight
8:54
declines, but we've got a... Three -year decline
9:01
and a five -year trend on inventory. So this
9:07
thing, you know, peaked, it looks like, almost
9:13
at 200 million pounds. And right now it shows
9:24
147 million pounds. So we're down 25%, which
9:32
is a good thing. We don't know what... So we're
9:38
dropping an average of, what is that, like 18
9:42
million pounds a year? Yeah. Something like that.
9:45
From, yeah, from 24, March 1st of 24, there were
9:53
184 million pounds. March 1st, 25. 169 million
9:58
pounds, so shed 15 million from 24 to 25. From
10:04
25, it went from 169 to 147, 22 million pound
10:10
drop. And when we look at the acreage, we are
10:18
down 12 acres from last year. $41 ,654 down to
10:26
$41 ,642. If we're bleeding down inventory this
10:33
fast and we're not adjusting acreage, at some
10:39
point we're going to run out. And unfortunately,
10:45
growers and merchants can't just go like take
10:49
a guess. we all just came out of a little bit
10:52
of gambling with contracts thinking they were
10:55
all going to fulfill. And then everybody got
10:57
stuck holding the bag as the market declined.
11:00
And I'm hoping that, you know, we can figure
11:05
out a way as an industry to communicate better
11:08
because if we run out in, I mean, things definitely
11:15
are going to get tight regardless, but. Timing
11:20
-wise, we need to know the contracting signals
11:24
by probably November. And we need it not to be
11:30
a huge number where we go slamming 7 ,000 acres.
11:35
Because if that happens, we're going to find
11:36
ourselves right back in oversupply. And there
11:39
we go. But there are so many brewers that are
11:44
not contracting. Oh, there's a lot. So getting
11:48
back to the stock report number there and considering
11:52
the fact that we haven't gone up in acres as
11:57
much as I think the industry originally thought.
12:01
So we're on track to burn another, what, call
12:05
it 15 plus million pounds out of the stocks again
12:10
this year, right? I would assume it's going to
12:14
be closer to that 20. 22 million pound. Yeah,
12:18
I'm just being conservative and saying at least
12:20
15. And then so that'll bring the stock reports
12:25
to what? It would put it down around 120. And
12:30
then what do you consider healthy stocks, a healthy
12:35
amount of stocks? It depends on what's alpha
12:39
and what's aroma. You need quite a bit more.
12:43
That's the biggest problem here is we don't know
12:45
what's. what the inventory looks like you know
12:49
i think the march 1st stock report should from
12:53
an aroma standpoint we should probably have about
12:58
we should probably have about a year of inventory
13:02
i would think on march 1st so somewhere around
13:06
that 85 million pounds but then if you add in
13:10
the alpha piece you have to have probably a year
13:19
and a half of inventory i would think on march
13:21
1st uh because some of the big brewers require
13:25
excess inventory so i would if i had to take
13:30
my guess i would say we should probably be somewhere
13:36
around 130 140 million pounds on uh on march
13:43
1st and we're We will be under that number. But
13:51
again, what is it? If it's alpha, there's plenty
13:55
of alpha sitting over in Germany right now. Now,
13:59
it was 104 degrees over in the Hallertal yesterday,
14:02
and they haven't seen rain, it looks like, in
14:04
quite a while, although it looks like some is
14:06
coming. How much, I have no idea. But if it's
14:12
aroma, that's... really bled down and so if we
14:16
have a lot of alpha sitting here uh that's going
14:21
to cause some real problems real real problems
14:25
and i understand that you know i was talking
14:29
to a brewer last week they're really really comfortable
14:32
buying old crop at deep discounts unfortunately
14:37
those hops aren't going to be there in a year
14:40
and so Their balance sheets are going to change
14:44
because, you know, paying $6 for a two -year
14:48
-old proprietary hop is going to be $11 or whatever.
14:53
I don't know. Costs are going to go up. Could
14:57
go up even more than that if there's a shortage
14:58
because people need hops. So that's pretty wild
15:03
looking at acreage. If you look at kind of the
15:08
big hitters, citrus. Probably still down 30,
15:13
40 % off its peak. Mosaic. It was up this year,
15:18
though? Yeah, Citra's up several hundred acres.
15:24
Cascade is, gosh, it's a couple thousand acres
15:28
now, and it's... Oh, my gosh. Like in Washington
15:34
in 2022, there's 3 ,500 acres. In Washington
15:38
this year, there's 1 ,700 acres. So less than
15:42
half. Centennial is actually almost the exact
15:46
same. So maybe that's a good thing. I don't know.
15:56
Yeah, Chinook's way down. It's going to be interesting.
16:02
But my biggest year -to -date takeaway so far
16:06
is we have an issue coming. And it's not being
16:11
communicated well enough as far as I can tell.
16:13
Or brewers are just saying, we don't believe
16:15
you. Which has been the case in the past because,
16:19
I mean, they've heard it before, right? Oh, need
16:24
to contract, need to contract. And then I think
16:27
that tool has been used maybe inappropriately
16:35
in places in the past. There's a little bit of
16:38
a hesitancy or a little hesitance to do that.
16:42
Oh, yeah. I don't blame the brewers for being
16:46
gun -shy about contracting. I mean, everybody
16:49
says the same thing. We can't get into something
16:52
that we can't get out of. If we don't need the
16:55
hops, our balance sheets can't take that again.
16:58
I get it. But that means we got to find out a
17:01
way as an industry to do flexible contracting
17:04
from Roy Farms as an example. we have to find
17:09
a way to get stuff contracted in a way that helps
17:16
brewers be flexible and helps growers and merchants
17:20
be able to predict as best as possible the volume
17:25
they need. It's pretty scary. It'd be interesting
17:33
to bring a banker on here. Yeah. and see how
17:37
they would look at all of this with you know
17:40
if we have a ramp up where we do need 5 000 acres
17:45
where's the money coming from to do it i mean
17:49
last time money kept coming through and then
17:52
all of a sudden it stopped so i'm sure banks
17:56
are a little gun shy yeah it's a good question
18:00
i mean i think growers are gun shy too no kidding
18:06
We probably sound like quite the broken record,
18:07
but for those of you that are brewers or anybody
18:12
in the supply chain, growers, brewers, dealers
18:18
selling, brokers, whatever, communicate, communicate,
18:22
communicate. I mean, yeah. Could be bad news.
18:33
Could be great news. We could come out of this
18:35
as an industry much more stable also, which would
18:38
be the goal. In which case we need to be, you
18:45
know, given credibility because we're the ones
18:48
beating the show. They're getting credit. What's
18:53
been interesting to me is watching all the shifts
18:57
in market share. Yeah. Move around. It's going
19:02
to be really great. Really interesting to see
19:04
where that lands because I don't. I'm not sure
19:09
we have a clear enough picture yet. Do you see.
19:16
Let me back up a little bit. Rewind. When I started
19:20
with Roy Farms a couple of years ago, the goal
19:22
was to swing market share to Roy Farms. Right.
19:27
It was to sell hops, but yes. Because the market's
19:32
not growing anymore, so your growth only comes
19:33
from one place. We need to swing market share,
19:36
whether it be growing for other merchants or
19:40
growing for brewers direct. And we've seen a
19:46
ton of that happen, and that's fantastic. What
19:50
I think I've been surprised by is how big...
19:55
The swings are, and not just like Roy Farnham,
19:58
we're large, but we're not big enough to move
20:03
the entire market one way or the other, right?
20:05
No. So, you know, maybe we swing something big
20:08
for us. I mean, 500 acres for us is a ton. It's,
20:14
you know, 1 % of the total market. But what's
20:21
been surprising to me is... Where we're seeing
20:24
the market share swings from a broader context
20:29
where we're seeing certain merchants grow materially
20:36
and others shrink or we don't even like run into
20:39
a bunch in the market anymore. Even two years
20:41
ago we did that we don't. Do you think that is
20:47
positive, natural, dangerous? I don't know how
20:58
to comment on dangerous or natural. I don't know.
21:07
I think market share, in my mind, market share
21:10
moving around and finding its home in this new
21:14
norm is good. But my assumption there is that
21:19
it's finding a home within kind of like a...
21:26
new balanced supply chain but that's only i think
21:30
that's happening on like a smaller merchant distributor
21:38
grower direct level but on the macro level i
21:42
don't have enough visibility but on a macro level
21:45
it seems dangerous the way that the market share
21:49
is moving around because the market has kind
21:52
of had this balancer in there for time and and
21:56
there's so much market share it seems like i
21:59
don't know the numbers but moving around between
22:01
large merchants that that it's becoming a little
22:06
unbalanced and i don't know what that means like
22:11
maybe it's fine but it seems like a balanced
22:14
market has kind of opposing forces to some degree
22:17
not negative opposing forces but natural balancers
22:21
in there That kind of feels like, yeah, like
22:27
healthy opposition. Yeah, yeah, yeah. And, you
22:32
know, and then, like, with all the small players
22:34
out there, I mean, and you could throw us into
22:36
that category, too, small to mid or whatever,
22:39
from, like, a distribution standpoint, even though
22:43
we're a large grower. In, like, that whole pot,
22:47
it doesn't seem like anyone's, like, going away.
22:53
And so in this market correction, like, we haven't
22:58
seen any consolidation necessarily. We've seen
23:01
cooperation, which is good. But, like, besides
23:04
what was the group out of Michigan? But that
23:08
wasn't really a product of this current market.
23:13
They were kind of on their way out prior, weren't
23:15
they? Hophead? Oh. Did they go completely under?
23:21
I thought so. Interesting. Okay. Consult the
23:28
literature on that. But my point is that, you
23:33
know, I think for, as my dad says, you know,
23:37
the market needs a good cleansing from time to
23:40
time. I don't know if we saw a whole lot of cleansing.
23:44
Yeah, the deck needs to be reshuffled. And it
23:48
is to some degree, but I don't think we saw the
23:51
level of reshuffling and collaboration that we
23:58
could have seen out of this period of time. Yeah.
24:03
I mean, you ask if it's natural. Well, yeah,
24:06
I guess when I look at some of the reasons why
24:10
the market share is swinging. to such a large
24:13
degree it's natural because there's there's a
24:15
certain amount of like dysfunction in pockets
24:17
of the industry you know and so i don't know
24:22
yeah i mean i guess from a just pure capitalism
24:27
standpoint those that are willing to change with
24:29
the market are the ones that are going to grow
24:31
and when we look at craft beer in general it's
24:36
a different animal than we've seen before and
24:39
so we just had our first downward correction
24:43
happen and now we're going to see another upward
24:47
correction happen or growing back into it and
24:52
it's a relatively young market well it's a very
24:55
young market so it needs to learn how to you
25:00
know what are the stats currently for um beer
25:06
production because we've been talking to some
25:09
breweries and they they feel like the market
25:11
It's kind of stabilizing a bit. Oh, yeah. New
25:14
Brewer just got one sitting right over there.
25:17
Hold on. Why don't you go grab that? Oh, yeah.
25:18
Yeah, so craft category was this is the new Brewer
25:21
just came out. Craft category down 5 % by volume.
25:28
It says our data suggests that 39 % of breweries
25:32
grew in 2025, however. Operating breweries went
25:37
down by 2 .9%. But if you look at, and we don't
25:43
know what drives all this, of course, but the
25:46
big brewing companies, Northeast, Yingling down
25:51
25%, Boston Beer down 7%, Athletic up 20%, Brooklyn
25:58
down a little bit. I mean, if you look across,
26:03
Gambrinus was down 11%, but Sweetwater was up
26:06
24%. Creatures up 10%. Tivoli Brewing Company
26:13
up 102%. Oscar Blue is down 6%. Garage Beer up
26:18
193%. From a low base, but still. Right. It's
26:24
now 220 ,000 barrels. Well, that's not a low
26:26
base. Yeah, so you look across the... Most people
26:32
are down a little bit. But there's some big hitters
26:36
going up. But again... Okay, so let's say Kraft
26:42
was down 5%. Our stocks declined by, what was
26:49
that number? 22 million pounds. I mean, that's
26:54
like 12%, something like that. So stocks are
27:00
dropping faster than brewery or beer is getting
27:07
brewed or beer volume is dropping. I mean, how
27:10
would you layer in alpha macro global on top
27:15
of those two numbers? The alpha thing right now
27:20
is pretty confusing because there is, everybody
27:22
says there's way too much, but in the U .S. it
27:25
seems like we're still somewhere around stable
27:29
or even undersupplied on that. I mean, demand.
27:33
I mean, just to poke holes in that a little bit,
27:36
there are a fair number of. alpha blocks idled
27:40
this year there's also alpha blocks coming back
27:42
online that were idled last year right and so
27:45
but i would say we don't have any problem moving
27:51
alpha we have a problem moving at a reasonable
27:54
price yeah but yeah it doesn't seem like it's
27:58
a problem to move it no which seems odd i mean
28:05
cascade is a pain in the Tishy to move right
28:09
now. Dude. I think that's going to change real
28:13
fast. When it does, that'll be great. I'm not
28:17
saying you're wrong, but we've had this debate
28:19
for about two, three years now. All I said was
28:23
it was coming and I was trying to crystal ball
28:25
it. We know for a stone cold fact, contracting
28:31
is picking up. We're almost completely sold out
28:33
of 26 crop. Of Cascade? No, of everything. Okay.
28:38
Cascade is actually our healthiest position.
28:40
So if anybody needs. It's a really good Cascade.
28:43
Actually, it's not all really good, but it's
28:45
mostly good. Yeah, it's mostly good. You just
28:48
let us know. Because we'd sure like to sell some
28:52
to you. But other than that, I mean, we're oversold
28:56
on a bunch of stuff. Which compare that to last
28:59
year to this year. And it's not even close. That's
29:04
true. I mean, just to throw a stat out there
29:07
for our listeners, I think this time last year,
29:09
what percent were we contracted and then what
29:11
percent are we contracted now? I think we were
29:15
probably about 70 last year and now on a Roma.
29:19
Yeah. And now we're probably 95. Yeah. So that's
29:23
the number. Yep. It just reinforces what you
29:28
were talking about a minute ago. Yep. But what
29:33
concerns me, so using that, actually, I'm glad
29:35
you brought that up. That illustrates what concerns
29:38
me. Let's pretend for a second that Roy Farms
29:40
is representative of the industry. Are we? I
29:45
said let's pretend. I don't know. So if you look
29:50
at 26 Crop, almost all of it's contracted, but
29:54
there's a bunch of brewers that are not contracting
29:56
right now. And so when they come in for spots,
30:00
the only thing that we're going to have options
30:02
for is old grub. And we are sourcing from some
30:07
other growers. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I know. But
30:10
I mean, yes. I don't want our listeners to think
30:12
we don't have access to hops. Yeah, we'll get
30:14
you hops. Don't you worry about that. At least
30:18
for a short period of time until they run out.
30:21
But so if we're working through, we have probably...
30:27
half a crop of in total of spots available. If
30:35
you said 23, 24 and 25 crop. So we have enough
30:41
to sell, you know, we can help bridge a gap for
30:49
a short period of time. But if everybody not
30:51
contracting comes in, to get volume you have
30:56
this year that we could probably cover as an
30:59
industry but next year the 27 crop is the one
31:03
that's going to be a little scary if people come
31:05
back to the well that thing's going to be dry
31:09
so um and the like you this is public available
31:16
information on you can see the acre just low
31:19
you can see stocks are declining so it's like
31:23
we're on a crash course right now unless something
31:25
changes so that's got me concerned because farms
31:28
i don't think farms or breweries can handle any
31:32
more volatility than they've gone through the
31:35
last few years no i know we can't no on the merchant
31:43
panel um at the hop convention what number were
31:49
they saying They, me and the merchant panel,
31:52
consensus -wise, needed to get pulled out of
31:54
the stocks this year. I mean, I think they were
32:00
saying they'd like to see another $20 million
32:01
pulled out of the stocks, but then... Well, it
32:05
exceeded that. I know. And then there's a really
32:09
good question there that no one could answer,
32:12
is that how much of this inventory is going to
32:17
make it into... and how much is going to get
32:21
destroyed. Do you think it really gets destroyed
32:25
or do you think it goes to like non -brewing
32:27
type? Well, yeah, I guess. I mean, I say destroyed,
32:30
but how much is going to get used for brewing
32:33
and how much is not going to get used for brewing?
32:36
That's a good question. A lot more is going to
32:41
get used for brewing now. Globally, I'd like
32:48
to know what hop consumption looks like from
32:50
a craft beer standpoint. I was talking to some
32:54
guys the other day from Europe, and they indicated
33:01
that craft is still growing over there. Sounds
33:04
like it. So maybe that eats up some of this volume.
33:10
I know it's growing in Asia quite a bit. Gosh,
33:13
a lot of spots go to Asia. I had a question in
33:18
there. Speak freely. You're in a safe place.
33:23
You and 2 ,000 of our closest friends. I mean,
33:28
we do know that things are drying up. People
33:34
are obviously scraping the bottom of the barrel
33:36
in some varieties. How do you think advanced
33:41
products play into this? That's what I was just
33:43
going to say that makes this even more interesting
33:45
is a lot of advanced products have been utilizing...
33:48
Old inventory. Yeah. And now those are established,
33:54
you know, I think... Products. Products, yeah.
33:58
So presumptively that's going to continue. So
34:01
there's going to have to be ops that go in for
34:03
those. But the efficiencies that are gained through
34:06
that are already baked into the... The stocks
34:11
that are shrinking, right? They kind of have
34:13
to. So, I don't know. I wish there was a way
34:19
to get a stronger communication on usage. Like
34:29
hop usage? Yeah. But that's one of those hope
34:33
in one hand and shit in the other and see what
34:35
you got more of, you know? Maybe the IHGC should
34:38
take that on. If only we knew somebody there.
34:43
Liz, you know anybody that's part of it? You
34:45
know what? Since we have you on here, tell us
34:47
about... This is good. This is important. For
34:50
those of you that don't know, one Les Roy likes
34:53
to take his children on European walks. It doesn't
34:57
necessarily have to be European walks. It just
34:59
happens to be. I picked Italy because it made
35:03
sense with his meetings. With the IHGC. What
35:07
was it like to see Mr. Roy in the wild at the
35:12
IHGC meetings? He was exactly the same. Scattered,
35:16
chatty, off -subject, squirrel, all of the above.
35:21
They love him, though. I mean, I see why he loves
35:24
going over there, because they just adore him.
35:26
They shower him. Shower him with all the attention
35:28
he wants. He's a titan. Yep. He gets all the
35:32
love. He does. That he does. Tell us. One or
35:36
two of your favorite stories you had over there
35:39
with him. He's really fun to pal around with
35:43
when he's low stress. Oh, yeah. Yeah. He's pretty
35:47
entertaining. You're going to have fun, Mike.
35:49
Oh, I'm looking forward to it. How many different
35:52
apps did he have for navigation? I refused to
35:57
go on the trip if there was a lot of navigating.
36:00
So our trip was pretty easy. Yeah. I knew my
36:04
limit. He is the best in all of us, isn't he?
36:07
I wish I had. I have his quirkiness, but I wish
36:11
I had his carefreeness at times. Maybe it comes
36:14
with age. Maybe. Yeah. Has he always been like
36:19
that? He's kind of been cruising for a long time.
36:24
I think he's naturally like that. I don't think
36:26
he's always been like that. He's had periods
36:28
of stress in his life where I think that. He
36:31
doesn't shine as much. He loves to travel. He
36:33
does love to travel. New things. He's an adventurer.
36:38
We don't know a whole lot about how Andy and
36:40
dad's trip went. They kind of came back like
36:43
in a cone of silence. I know. He said, well,
36:46
you're chattier than your brother. He said Andy
36:48
would just kind of, I mean, they had longer days,
36:50
different walk, but he said Andy would just kind
36:54
of retreat to his room. He needs his alone time.
36:58
Really? Yeah. I hope Andy gives some commentary
37:02
on that. Hey, everybody. Andy here. Yeah, I guess
37:08
the reason that they don't know enough about
37:12
the walk is because they haven't really asked
37:15
me much about it. So maybe they should turn the
37:18
mirror around on themselves, take a look at why
37:20
they haven't asked me about it. In all seriousness,
37:23
no. Last May, my father and I did the Camino
37:29
de Santiago walk. We started in Porto, Portugal
37:32
and ended in Santiago, Spain. We walked for about
37:37
10 days and did over 110 miles, I think. We did
37:42
anywhere from like 10 to 20 miles a day. And
37:45
it was a very fun, fun, special, special time
37:49
with my father. Yeah, as far as not being as
37:53
chatty as Liz, well, I feel like in the first
37:57
day and a half we burned through all the hot
38:00
topics that we had at the beginning. After that,
38:02
we just kind of settled into just getting from
38:05
A to B. For, like, apps that he used, there's
38:08
one app, I can't recall the name of it, that
38:11
my dad used. I think it was very state -of -the
38:15
-art back in its day, but my dad refuses to move
38:18
on to new technology. If something works, why
38:21
would he change it? He still swears that it's
38:24
still highly rated. Very special trip. Highly
38:29
love it. And Liz just finished hers, and next
38:33
year it's Mike's turn. So enjoy that, Mike. Back
38:39
to you, Drew. I wonder what my walk's going to
38:42
be with him. I like to bug my dad, so I'm constantly
38:44
chattering. Yeah, where are you going to go walk
38:46
with him there, Drew? I don't know. We'll see
38:48
where he wants to go. I had a nice long walk
38:51
with him years ago. We went to visit my father
38:56
-in -law in the mountains. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah.
38:58
It was like a seven -mile hike, but he calls
39:00
it a walk. Yeah. We got to explore all the mysteries
39:04
of the universe. He and I have very differing
39:07
understandings of a few parts of the hot market,
39:10
that's for sure. Neither one's right. It's philosophical,
39:14
really. All right. We've kind of talked a lot
39:19
about the contracting global market, walking.
39:22
We haven't talked about kind of an update on
39:24
what's going on in the valley and with the crop
39:28
and everything. Yeah, I need to. travel a little
39:33
further abroad we've been kind of holed up here
39:35
in moxie doing doing our thing um well we'll
39:39
talk about the our crop our crop looks good um
39:45
weather's been good weather's been good weather's
39:49
been mild which helps with the water availability
39:52
yeah haven't heard a whole lot about that i i
39:56
mean We and a lot of other growers in Moxie are
40:01
not in the same water shortage type situation
40:08
that a lot of the industry is in with the types
40:14
of water rights and the diversity of water supply
40:17
here in Moxie. I mean, we are on our junior ground.
40:22
We are shorter, but then we have supplemental
40:25
wells and some other ways of dealing with it.
40:28
So, I mean, yeah, we're finding Moxie. I haven't
40:31
heard as much as I thought I would about a lack
40:34
of water. We had that early shutdown with the
40:38
Rosa. It doesn't look like it's going to be extremely
40:43
hot during some of the critical developmental
40:48
stages of the hot plant this year. Bug pressure
40:54
is really low. oddly low which is good which
41:00
seems weird coming out of a mild uh it does winter
41:04
yeah maybe a little bit more disease pressure
41:10
than usual but nothing nothing crazy really low
41:15
bug pressure yeah i would say you know the the
41:20
two things that kind of stick out to me are three
41:25
things and one of them is literally getting in
41:28
the weeds but i'll talk about that is you know
41:31
some of the varieties the earlier varieties kind
41:35
of are i would say struggling to fill out a little
41:40
bit but they're gonna i think they're gonna be
41:41
fine but they're kind of some of those early
41:45
shoots since we had such a a variable and and
41:48
relatively warm spring some of those shoots shot
41:52
up the string and are wanting to bloom early
41:55
But it's nothing crazy. And then the babies,
42:00
depending on when you got them in the ground,
42:04
some look good. Some don't look that great. Labor
42:09
is trying to be managed tightly. So, you know,
42:15
I don't think growers in general are throwing
42:18
the amount of money at the baby crop that they
42:20
have in the past. that can lead to a little bit
42:23
of variability or yeah or maybe just not as as
42:28
strong of a first year crop and then the other
42:32
one that kind of sticks out to me is is even
42:35
though we are seeing a lower bug pressure year
42:37
i think as an industry we're seeing higher weed
42:41
pressure here and it's like when i'd look around
42:45
and there's quite a bit of weed pressure and
42:49
so And the hops aren't tall enough right now
42:53
to go and chemically burn back the bases if you
42:56
want to do that. So then people are having to
42:58
throw hand labor at these fields to try and bridge
43:01
the gap between now and when you can go in and
43:06
spray the bases. And that's not cheap. Yeah.
43:11
It's funny. It's only in some fields, though.
43:14
Yeah. But where that kosher's popping its little
43:18
evil face out. Oh, yeah. some varieties smother
43:22
it out so even if you have the weed bank there
43:24
some varieties grow faster than the kochia can
43:26
and it just kind of smothers it out um so yeah
43:30
some varieties will will grow faster than the
43:35
weeds essentially the earlier varieties even
43:37
if the weed bank is there or seed bank yeah it's
43:43
it's it's a pretty good growing here actually
43:45
so We'll see the crop still filling out right
43:50
now. Nothing glaringly negative. Yeah, the baby
43:54
crop is a little... It's interesting because
43:56
you just never know what people have factored
43:59
in for a baby crop. So what are people expecting?
44:02
What's it going to come in at? Huge. What? That's
44:05
what I want to expect. I know that's what you
44:07
want to expect. But that's just not actually
44:10
the reality. Propagators are continuing to be
44:14
a problem. Challenging. Yeah. Yeah, so crop looks
44:22
good so far. Yeah, nothing too dramatic there
44:26
yet. Yeah, my prediction is correct about that
44:29
we need... We don't have enough... Well, clearly
44:33
we don't have enough acres to... And we're working
44:35
on old inventory, but a decent -sized crop would
44:39
probably be a good thing for... For... Yeah.
44:43
Yeah. Yeah, and the interesting thing is, is
44:46
so... as we've corrected the stocks there's been
44:50
this pullback across the industry on acres right
44:52
and as you can see acres are coming back in slowly
44:57
in certain varietals and then but there's a reset
45:02
behind the scenes of like who is growing this
45:09
acres that's coming back on board right yeah
45:13
and so That's going to be really interesting
45:16
to watch because we've seen, not to be a broken
45:18
record, but we've seen some farms go away here.
45:21
Are those acres coming out? Are they being replaced
45:27
by another variety? Where is the market share
45:31
getting redistributed to my earlier point? That's
45:34
really interesting to watch because I think the
45:38
composition of these farms is going to look materially
45:41
different from... what it looked like going in,
45:45
in terms of like what varieties are on these
45:47
farms, how many acres of the varieties. Makes
45:50
sense. What else we got for the mid -year review?
45:56
What do you think about, here's the thought that,
46:00
not to interrupt your thought processes. Speak
46:03
freely. You're in a safe place. Okay. What do
46:07
you think, I mean, okay, what do you think about
46:09
new varieties? There's no shortage of new varieties
46:12
out there. There's more being released by large
46:16
breeding programs, small breeding programs, university.
46:21
I think it's good. I was at a brewery last week,
46:26
a pretty large brewery on the East Coast, and
46:28
I asked them their sentiment about it, and they
46:32
said more options, better, more flavors, more
46:36
aromas, more, more. I know the marketplace feels
46:42
like it's getting crowded out, but the free market
46:47
will figure out what it wants. And so as long
46:49
as they want to try something and classic Les
46:52
Roy words right there. You know what? I am of
46:57
his children biological or otherwise, I do share
47:04
a lot of his free market things maybe the most.
47:09
Or I talk about it the most. How about free market
47:12
and breeding programs? No, we are misaligned
47:14
on that. Unless he's changed his... I feel like
47:20
he needs to be here to defend himself. But that
47:21
could be like a whole topic in and of itself.
47:23
Is proprietary versus free market breeding programs.
47:28
Just let him run on that one. You should call
47:31
him. Call a friend. Oh, I don't know if we have
47:33
enough time. We don't have enough time for that.
47:35
That's a really good idea, but I don't know if
47:37
we have enough time. We actually probably do
47:38
have... I think we should just bring them in
47:40
for it. I think we should bring them in for it.
47:43
I mean, I think no matter what hops need to be
47:47
managed from a quality standpoint, I think every
47:49
new variety that comes out should be public or
47:51
proprietary. Agreed. I think the variability
47:55
across the board on quality is on certain varieties
47:59
is not good. Do you think if when we see shortages
48:03
in... Existing varieties, do you think it's going
48:07
to help drive adoption of new varieties? And
48:10
if so, in what way? I mean, I guess there are
48:14
a couple different ways to look at that. One
48:20
would be if the shortage in certain varieties
48:25
pushes brewers to try something new and they
48:31
go, oh, I really like this and this is available.
48:34
could force the growth of a certain brand that
48:38
maybe they weren't going to try otherwise. I
48:43
don't know. That's interesting because if you
48:45
were to talk to some of the OG brewers and their
48:48
core brands that are still legendary today, I
48:52
think a lot of them were because those were the
48:54
hops that were available to them at the time.
48:57
I know Simcoe, for example. not a lot of the
49:01
big brewers were brewing with it. So there happened
49:03
to be inventory when craft started taking off
49:05
and, you know, it found its way into a bunch
49:10
of brew dog beers and to plenty, uh, the elder
49:15
and to, you know, all kinds that that's what
49:18
was available. And it turned out to be just an
49:20
awesome variety. And it helped define the style
49:23
too. Yeah. So I, something like that could certainly
49:27
happen again, I would think. But I don't know.
49:31
What do you think about, you know, there's a
49:33
few. Okay, so I think a lot of times we talk
49:36
about new varieties and their uniqueness or their
49:42
potential to help bring uniqueness to these beers.
49:47
But then there's, in my mind, a whole different
49:49
category of utility hops that can be used. Oh,
49:55
yeah. You know, not a one -for -one exchange,
49:58
but if you have a recipe that has five different
50:01
hops in it or something, you could potentially
50:04
move varieties around within that recipe. I got
50:09
to think there's a lot of that happening. Well,
50:11
we know there is. Yeah, because I mean, that's,
50:13
I guess when I asked that question, I'm thinking
50:17
more about that utility category. And I mean,
50:22
does that help drive? of like, I mean, the ones
50:27
that come to the top of my mind are Azaka, Alani,
50:30
Eldorado, kind of like in that category. I don't
50:34
know. I would think so. I mean, if you can get
50:38
a close flavor match by diversifying your beer
50:43
a little bit, I'd be curious to know what the
50:48
consumer thinks. Yeah. But who knows? It's going
50:54
to be interesting. Yeah. And good to keep our
51:00
eye on all this. Hopefully just keep supporting
51:04
brewers in their growth or their stability. Help
51:10
make them stay competitive. I don't know. I think
51:15
we've covered most of it. Yeah, I think. It's
51:21
nice that the growing season has been mild. It's
51:27
nice water hasn't impacted us as much as we thought
51:31
it could. Of course, we have a lot of days left
51:35
this summer. Now, hop stocks, I think we beat
51:39
that one to death. Contract, communicate, please,
51:43
please. What do you think about contracting in
51:47
some of these? and RFQs, and I don't know. It's
51:53
a pretty competitive landscape out there. I think
51:56
that's all going to settle it or work itself
51:58
out. Yeah. It's just a timing thing right now.
52:05
I hope more partnerships come out of all this
52:07
long -term. Agree. I really like the cost -plus
52:11
model that's just fully transparent. Those are
52:15
really good. Feels like it's a platform to build
52:18
on. De acuerdo. Last question that I have. What
52:27
are you most excited about or want to see this
52:31
year? Well, what I'm most excited about is the
52:37
cleaning up of old inventory. And I hope that
52:43
that translates to stability and communication.
52:50
But we'll see. Also really excited about Adina
52:54
still. A lot more chatter about that variety,
52:57
which is good. We think it creates a nice solution.
53:01
I'm excited about Tangerine Dream. Oh my gosh.
53:05
I cannot wait. Have you looked at those plants
53:08
yet? No. Let's go do that. Let's. What about
53:13
you? I am really excited about that hop. Really
53:16
excited about going up and brewing some harvest
53:19
beers up in Oh, yeah. Really excited about that.
53:23
That's going to be fun. They're such good people.
53:26
Excited about our water management platform that
53:30
continues to get dialed year in, year out. Should
53:36
come as no surprise. Right, right. That is something
53:39
that I've got asked to have be discussed is how
53:45
senior and junior water rights work because we
53:47
talk about it like it's... People know what it
53:49
means, but a lot of people do not. You want me
53:54
to cover that now? No, let's save it for... We
53:57
need a good old -fashioned water... We do need
53:59
a water recap. Yep. What else am I excited about?
54:04
I'm excited about the conversations that are
54:06
happening. It's really hard to get collaboration
54:09
over the finish line, but it feels like... that
54:14
it's not everywhere. in the industry, but it
54:18
feels like there's more communication. I'm excited
54:23
about that. All good things. Yeah. All right,
54:26
well, 25th episode, ramblings, more targeted
54:29
maybe than the road trip. More targeted than
54:32
the road trip. It was great. Okay. Let's go look
54:37
at hops. Yeah, buddy. All right, bye. Bye.