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Waymo Starts Testing in Minneapolis · Elon Musk Podcast

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  This is the Elon Musk Podcast, your daily hit of what is really
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  going on at Tesla, SpaceX X AI, and the rest of the Musk
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  universe. I'm your host Will Walden, and I
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  have covered Elon Musk for more than five years, spent a year on
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  the ground at SpaceX, Starbase during early Starship
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  development, and before this I spent my career as a software
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  developer working with billion dollar companies.
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  I've also built and sold my own businesses and now I make
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  content and help other people grow their companies.
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  Now on this show, I used that experience to break down the
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  news, filter out all the noise and give you clear context you
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  can actually use. Waymo begins testing in
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  Minneapolis with its white Jaguar.
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  I pace, SU VS and Zeker RT vehicles rolling out under human
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  control now. The company says that is the
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  first step toward ride hailing in the city once it proves
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  performance on local streets. Now today, you'll hear what
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  Waymo plans to do, how Minnesota officials and drivers reacted,
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  why winter conditions are the ultimate hurdle for driverless
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  vehicles. A Waymo spokesperson told us
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  that the goal is not only testing, but ride hailing.
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  How will that path play out in a city known for ice, snow, very
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  cold weather and complex traffic patterns?
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  So here's the plan for today. I'll explain what we MO is doing
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  in Minneapolis and how the phased rollout works.
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  Then walk through the safety claims, illegal stuff, labor
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  concerns in the city's expectations.
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  And then we're going to talk about an analysis of what winter
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  conditions and local policy will demand before riders can tap a
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  button for a driverless car. And we'll get right into that
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  after this very short break. We MO's Twin Cities move starts
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  with manual driving, then supervised autonomy, then
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  potential public rides. The company's product
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  communications manager told us that they intend to offer ride
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  hailing in Minneapolis, not just testing.
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  Testing began Thursday morning with no date sent for passenger
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  service, which signals A validation first approach before
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  they invite normal people like you and I into these vehicles.
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  Now here's how the rollout works on the street.
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  First, a human driver sits behind the wheel to collect data
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  and map the city streets using the full sensor arrays and suite
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  of cameras, radar and LIDAR to build a 360° picture of the
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  city. And after mapping, the vehicle
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  drives the route while the human remains behind the wheel to take
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  control if needed. This creates repeatable routes
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  and edge cases for libraries that Waymo can analyze before it
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  asks regulators and the public. For rider only, ServiceNow
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  Minneapolis is a deliberate choice.
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  The company calls winter a big question, so it wants a dense
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  urban area with serious coal to test whether it's 6th
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  generation. AI and cleaning mechanisms can
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  keep sensors clear and decision making stable now, starting in
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  the urban core, then expanding outward let's the team validate
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  in high complexity traffic before it scales to wider
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  coverage. Now this is an effort to answer
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  the hardest problem in one of the hardest environments first.
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  And safety is the center of Waymo's pitch here.
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  They point to its record in other cities setting fewer
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  injury crashes and fewer pedestrian injury crashes
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  compared with human drivers over the same distance.
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  Those are directional claims that set expectations for local
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  officials and riders who will ask about crash rates, near
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  misses and emergency vehicle interactions.
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  And if Minneapolis sees similar results during supervised
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  testing, that'll support the case for a limited, then broader
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  rider rollout over time. And Minneapolis law does not
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  explicitly allow or prohibit autonomous vehicle testing,
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  according to the state Transportation department.
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  That means the next legislative session will likely take up EV
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  policy with agencies asking to be part of this discussion.
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  And a clear framework would set responsibilities for companies
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  reporting requirements for incidents and rules for when a
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  vehicle can operate without a human at the driver's seat.
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  Lawmakers will weigh local transit priorities and workforce
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  efforts while they draft these rules.
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  A labor concerns surfaced immediately.
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  The Minnesota Uber Lyft Drivers Association said driverless cars
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  could threaten income for drivers and faulted companies
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  for making deployment decisions without community input.
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  The group also raised a performance question specific to
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  Minnesota's climate, arguing that the technology is unproven
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  on icy roads in a winter traffic.
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  Those questions will press Waymo to share test data, incident
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  logs and performance envelopes for low visibility and low
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  friction conditions. Now, city officials see some
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  trade-offs here. A Minneapolis spokesperson told
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  us that the city wants safe streets and efficient traffic,
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  and it'll keep talking with Waymo as testing begins with
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  human drivers. The city also raised a basic
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  question. If ride hail grows, how does
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  that interact with public transit goals in mode shift?
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  Now my analysis on this is that Minneapolis will want to measure
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  any shift in bus or ride it rail ridership once EV trips are
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  available, and it'll look for rules to keep pickup and drop
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  off flows from clogging key corridors in the city.
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  And if they see a downturn in bus and rail ridership, then
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  they could start taxing driverless vehicles and ride
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  hailing services to make up the lost revenue from bus and rail.
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  Now, Waymo's current service footprint matters for
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  expectations of this new area. The company already runs rider
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  service in warmer cities and climates and has partnerships
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  with deliveries in the Phoenix area.
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  Recently expanded to Austin and Atlanta through the Uber app and
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  the several other U.S. markets on its radar, including
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  Washington DC, Miami, Dallas, Houston, Las Vegas, San Diego,
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  San Antonio, Seattle, Nashville, Orlando and Tampa, and also
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  announced plans for cold weather cities like Boston, Detroit,
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  Denver, New York City and also Buffalo.
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  Minneapolis slots into that broader push is a winter test
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  site with dense urban streets. Now I expect Minneapolis to
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  focus on performance during active snowfall freeze thaw
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  cycles that leave rutted ice in early morning glare with
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  partially obscured lane markings.
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  Sensor cleaning is a real constraint for Waymo.
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  Even with heating and hydrophobic coatings, slush and
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  road salt will degrade lighter returns and camera clarity over
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  time. Now, the mapping pass will help,
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  but the real proof will be how the system handles refrozen
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  intersections. If it hits black ice, what does
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  it do? What if it wants to turn into an
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  unplowed alley? Will it just smash through the
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  snow? And it'll also have inconsistent
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  bike lane markings after a storm.
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  How will Waymo deal with this? You know, and I've been digging
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  through the analytics of the show and noticed that 37% of you
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  are following this channel. And for you, I am forever
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  grateful. And we're getting new followers
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  all the time. So join up, join the community,
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  join the club here. But the other 63% of you haven't
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  hit the follow or subscribe button yet.
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  I've been an independent journalist covering Elon Musk,
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  SpaceX, and tech for the last six years.
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  And I'll continue for the next 10 years in this podcast.
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  I've been doing the podcast for six years plus.
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  All I ask from you is one second of your time.
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  And all you have to do is hit the follower subscribe button on
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  the platform you're on right now.
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  And I'll be extremely grateful and blessed to have you in this
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  community. Thank you for your support.
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  Now, local precedent exists here, and that matters for
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  public comfort too. Southwest Transit has tested
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  autonomous vehicles and it's on demand prime service in the
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  suburbs with a human seated behind the wheel but not
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  actively driving. Riders have taken more than
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  17,000 trips in those vehicles with a very high satisfaction
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  rate, which gives officials a nearby reference point of how
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  people react to computer driven rides.
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  It also gives lawmakers a Minnesota specific test case
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  when they debate statewide rules.
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  Now, community voices around the city reflect both optimism and
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  also caution. A City Council member said crash
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  reduction and less need for parking could help, but flagged
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  concern about systems still struggling to fully identify
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  people. Now that puts a spotlight on
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  vulnerable road users, so the next phase should include
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  transparent reporting on how the system detects and responds to
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  pedestrians, cyclists, scooter riders, skateboarders, E bikes,
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  anything on the road. Minneapolis will want data from
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  the urban core, where those interactions happen consistently
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  and constantly. And Waymo's team frame the
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  arrival as more than just a test run.
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  A spokesperson for the company told us that they are here to
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  offer ride hailing in Minneapolis once the system
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  proves itself not to pass through and leave.
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  They're not just doing this to gather data then move to a
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  bigger city. And that sets a standard that
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  the company will be asked to meet with service maps, hours
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  and response times when it seeks a ride or only permit.
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  And the quickest way to build trust is to publish the safety
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  case, the route coverage and operation conditions before
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  inviting any riders on board. And these vehicles are cool.
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  They're Jaguar I paced SU, VS, and also Zeker RT models.
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  They have distinctive sensor stacks and roof hardware, so
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  they're going to draw some attention, which makes them
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  visible to drivers and pedestrians.
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  Visibility is helpful during the learning period, but it also
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  invites scrutiny. So I expect Waymo to run clear
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  markings and keep training personnel on site during the
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  early weeks to answer questions, log issues and collective
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  feedback and also talk about bugs.
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  Now, that feedback loop will shape the service map and the
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  weather policy moving forward. Also, there's regulatory stuff
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  going on. State transportation officials
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  expect the issue to come up in the next session, which means
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  hearings, draft bills and stakeholder testimony could take
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  years. And if lawmakers set data
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  sharing and incident reporting rules, Minneapolis could
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  position itself as a national winter city proving ground for
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  all AVS, including Tesla. With clear expectations around
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  performance, insurance and roadway etiquette for pick up
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  and drop off, companies will need to show they can operate
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  within those rules while improving Traffic Safety and
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  saving lives. But in the near term, the
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  testing geography is a big deal. Starting downtown puts the
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  system in contact with buses, bike lanes, curbside loading, a
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  lot of people walking in and out of the streets, jaywalking,
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  people running across the street, bikes, anything,
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  scooters, any sort of E bikes, any sort of skateboards,
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  anything like that. They're going to be everywhere
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  and expanding outward will add freeway merges eventually.
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  Bridges that ice before regular roads and neighborhood streets
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  where snow banks are very prominent in the winter time.
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  And I expect the most challenging phase to be the late
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  storm window when plows leave residual snow ridges that
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  obscure lane lines and narrow travel lanes and unpredictable
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  ways somebody's exiting the driveway and there's snow being
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  plowed or have been plowed on either side of their driveway.
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  You can't see that car coming out.
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  So what is going to happen when we MO encounter something like
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  that? Public transit still an open
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  question? City Council member told us what
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  they told us about the service and how it means for transit
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  ridership recovery. And you know what?
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  That's a fair question. If AV Ride Hill cannibalizes
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  short bus trips, that could reduce fare box revenue and slow
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  ridership gains. So they could make a lot less
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  money. But if it feeds riders to
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  transit stations, they can improve coverage and reduce car
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  ownership too. To clean up the environment a
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  little bit, many Yep this will need to watch trip patterns and
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  work with Waymo and pick up zones near transit hubs.
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  Now, my read on the timing here is pretty straightforward.
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  Testing began with the human at the wheel and no pasture start
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  date yet, which puts the emphasis on data collection
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  through the winter. If the system meets its
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  performance targets across snow, ice and low visibility
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  conditions, Waymo can ask to open a limited rioter program
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  within a geofenced area, likely starting with smaller fleets in
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  defined hours. Maybe if 10 vehicles and do it
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  when it's daylight and clear. Clear up public reporting will
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  help move that process forward. If they share all of their data
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  with the city and the state, they're good to go.
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  You know, I think this is a really big deal.
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  Tesla isn't there yet, but they will eventually head to
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  Minneapolis. And Waymo has started supervised
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  testing in Minneapolis with manual driving for mapping and
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  data collection, plans to keep a human behind the wheel during
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  early autonomous runs, and aims to offer ride hailing after it
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  proves performance in winter and city traffic.
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  State law has no explicit AV authorization, legislators
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  expect to take up the issue, and local voices raise safety, labor
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  and transit corrections. The next phase depends on how
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  the system handles that snow, handles that ice, and the dense
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  urban interactions, and on what rules that Minneapolis sets for
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  driver operations in the future. And please, if you want to
• 14:29
  support the show even more, go to patreon.com/stagezero and
• 14:35
  please take care of yourselves and each other and I'll see you
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  tomorrow.