Latest / Money Grows on Trees / #319 - WARNING! This Oil Shock Is Going To Destroy Australians

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#319 - WARNING! This Oil Shock Is Going To Destroy Australians · Money Grows on Trees

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The world is on the brink of an oil shock that will make the 1970s look
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like child's play. Oil just cracked $100 a barrel. Most people think
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it's only going to impact petrol prices, but the reality is it's going to
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impact the cost of everything. Food, transport, construction, mortgage repayments. And
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because Australia imports over 90% of its fuel. It's
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sending our economy into a dive. I'm Lloyd
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J. Ross, multiple seven-figure investor and entrepreneur, and I've helped thousands of
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everyday people protect and grow their wealth. And in this video, I'm going to show
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you exactly why the oil shock is different, and
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what it means for your money, and how to position your portfolio right
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now. Let me give you the facts, not the clickbait stuff. It's
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just the actual numbers from credible sources, okay? So,
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according to Fortune, in March, in fact, on the 12th of March, Brent
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Crude hit $100 a barrel, and it's up from $69 a barrel for
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2025, okay? That's nearly a 45% spike in a matter of weeks. And
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according to the International Energy Agency, the global body that monitors oil
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supply, the Strait of Hormuz is now at a near standstill,
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if you haven't been watching the news. And the Strait of Hormuz carries about
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20% of the world's petroleum supply, but not just that, other things too, right? But when
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it closes, the world scrambles, of course, right? And so here's
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the part that most people don't know. Australia imports more
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than 90% of its fuel. And 80% of
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Australia's petrol, diesel, and jet fuel comes through Asia, the refineries in
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Asia that rely on the Gulf, right? Through
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the Strait. So when the Strait closes, even
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partially, Australia feels the pinch faster
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and harder than almost any other developed nation, right? Because
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we don't have the domestic production to buffer us like the U.S. does. We
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don't have deep strategic reserves even. We
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estimate that the fuel supply is probably under 90 days. In
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fact, it's probably more like 10 days now, right? This is
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wild. So as of March 2026, which is this month,
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average fuel prices in Sydney and Brisbane hit $2.18 a
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litre. So a standard family filling
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up 35 litres, let's say a week, is now spending 25% more
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than they were just a month ago, right? That's
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the impact. And that's just at the petrol pump. The real damage
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is what happens next in the economy broadly, right? And what most
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people aren't talking about. And it's the domino effect of the
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fact that one, your shopping center is about to get
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more expensive because oil doesn't just go in your car. It
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moves everything, trucks, freight. So trucks
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need diesel. Trucks need to move freight. Aviation
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needs jet fuel. and they move freight.
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And of course, shipping uses diesel and it moves freight. So there's now an
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extremely important
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shift in pricing of the methods of transport of
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everything, not just fuel, everything, right? And
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when diesel costs more, the cost of food from farm goes
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up, not just because the transport cost goes up, but even just to harvest the
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food goes up. That means you go to Coles, you go to Woolworths, wherever you
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go, and guess what? Your food's going to be more expensive. Everything is
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going to be more expensive because either it's got oil in it, or
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to produce it or harvest it or make it or manufacture it and move
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it. So it's higher to create it, it's
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higher to move it. Does that make sense? So the
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cost of everything goes up. So who pays for that? You do, right? At
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the checkout. So that's the first thing. The second
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thing is, before the oil shock, and I've said this on previous
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episodes, the inflation rate was already at 3.8%, moving towards
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5%. And now, it's probably going to be like 6% or 7%, depending
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on how impactful the oil is, right? So the Reserve Bank of Australia is
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now being forced to, although
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they haven't done it exactly, because yesterday was a rate decision. they're
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gonna increase the rates a bit harder because inflation will tick up,
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right? And if the public keeps spending, even with higher
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oil prices, we're gonna see a bigger jump in the
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interest rate environment, right? Because they're gonna have to fight the inflation by
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raising interest rates. That's what they do. That's the only tool they have is
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to raise rates, right? So they've got to factor that into the
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next month. and that'll dictate how much extra you're
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paying your mortgage. So you're gonna see prices go up in everything from anything
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you buy, just about, and also in your mortgage if rates are gonna go up,
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which it looks like they are, okay? So markets are gonna price in probably
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three to four rate cuts in the space of the next year.
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And if that all happens, we'll be at four, as I said on the previous episode,
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4.6% to a 15-year high. 15-year high, right? So it's gonna
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add like, you know, three to $400 a month extra on
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a regular mortgage. And so over a course of
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years, it's like four to $5,000. And that's gonna have an impact
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for sure. If you're on variable rates, that's
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a real problem too because you're gonna be stuck taking it on the chin and banks are
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very quick to pass it on if you don't notice. So the third thing
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is the stock market's already bleeding because it
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knows that higher prices impact its own
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production of, so for example, BHP,
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the ability for it to produce things comes at a higher cost because all
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the trucks and everything use diesel, right? And the refining uses
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energy and oil and so forth. So there's a lot of embedded
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costs now, like a lot that goes into
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those companies, you've got to take it on the chin. So they either start selling
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at a higher price or they just take a hit on their profit margin. And if they take a hit on
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their profit margin, because they have no pricing power, you're going to see a shift
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in prices of stocks on the stock exchange. So that's where
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you're going to see oil making an impact on a lot of
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the Australian companies and certainly international companies as
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well. Because no company can avoid it,
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right? The only companies that are going to do really well is oil companies. If
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you had to listen to this podcast two months ago, I did a
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whole episode on that before oil spiked. mention position
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oil. And now a few people that did listen to that, I think they did it and they made a
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lot of money. Not that it's not the show is for that. I didn't position
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it that way, but there was a few hints. Um, anyway,
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I digress. I'll talk about that in another episode, but. The
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other thing that's happening because of those things would be
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an amplification of unemployment. So if you think about oil
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prices, the price of things going up has an impact
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on whether employees can hold people or not. So it has an impact on their bottom line.
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That's the first thing. They may start offloading employees. redundancies,
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then of course, that will have an impact on mortgage repayments. Then
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you might see bad debts grow up at the bank, which has happened in the past. And
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then they may start retrenching employees. And then of course, you're going to
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see the impacts of the oil shock in
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public companies, which can have an effect on staffing numbers, et
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cetera. So if it gets bad enough, you start to see the final domino,
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which is unemployment. And the reason why the RBA didn't increase the rates by 0.5% yesterday
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is because they are scared of unemployment. Couple
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that with the fact that Claude is now pretty much doing everything for everyone at
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work, there's going to be a huge shift in how
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people work, which means there might be a ton of retrenchments. I mean, I
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know that Atlassian just let go of 1600 people, but that's one
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of however many are going to start to let go of people. So you might see an
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increase in unemployment, of course. Then can you pay your mortgage? No, you can't. And then you have exacerbation
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of the mortgage and bad debts in the banks go up. I mean, it's just this knock-on effect. It's
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crazy what oil can do. And in the 1970s, This
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is what happened, but it was much less then. So in the
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70s, there was an embargo on oil, where they actually couldn't, it
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was a man-made embargo, where oil supply wasn't provided
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for the Middle East on purpose. And this
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is different. This is like way worse. You
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gotta understand this. The Strait of Hormuz is closed. I
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would anticipate that oil is gonna go to $250 a barrel soon. Like,
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oil was already going to 100 before this saga. It was already mispriced. It
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was already undervalued. And now it's going to go to 250. You
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think we're going to have some problems at 100, which we are. You wait till it
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goes to 250. There's going to be people riding to work on their bicycles.
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The impact of productivity is going to get crazy. The impact of cost
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to companies is going to go crazy. I think we're seeing the beginnings of a real
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shift in the business cycle here. So I don't think
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we have seen anywhere remotely close to what's going to happen to oil. Now
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what's cool about recording a podcast is you can come back in a year's time and see if
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you're accurate. And so far, if I go back for the last few months,
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we've been pretty accurate here as to what's going to happen. I smashed Bitcoin
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at $127,000. Now it's $67,000. I said
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the RBA made a mistake by dropping rates to $30.6. Now they're putting them back up, which they
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have. I mentioned oil is going to weigh undervalued at $59,000. Now it's $100,000. Now
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it's going to go up. I'm pretty sure it's going to go to $200,000. So
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all those things. And now property is coming off the ball. So it's all
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the things it's starting to happen, right? So I
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think it's going to be worse than the 1970s. Now, in the 70s,
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there was a fairly significant stock market collapse. And
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it's also where they had to increase interest rates to
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15% because inflation went up so fast because of the oil embargo, because
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oil is in everything. They had to increase interest rates to
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15%, 17% to bring it back down. So think about that for a second. Imagine if inflation
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got carried away and went up to 10, 12, 14, 15% and
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they had to increase rates to get rid of it. Imagine. What
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would that would do to the property market? I mean, it would absolutely decimate
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the economy. Now, it's not, with
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Australia almost closed, which is worse than the 70s, it's
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not a long tail risk anymore. It can happen. In
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fact, the statistics are now probably supporting that more than anything else. So
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I think the thing you've been waiting for to kind of create the end of the world scenario in
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the economy is now starting to happen. So, Again,
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we can add into that that AI is now going to start having
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an impact on unemployment as well. We could have the perfect storm
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of oil shock, coupled with unemployment, with
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rate rises, et cetera, and you're having these two big forces or
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three big forces acting at the same time. I
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don't want to put the fear in you, but oil could hit $200 a barrel. I
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know it sounds extreme, but by all accounts, the war in
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Iran doesn't seem to be a fast one,
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which means the longer the strait is closed, And
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the more that Trump jawbones the market by saying, oh, it's gonna drop as
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soon as the war's over, that's jawboning the market, right? He's keeping it
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artificially low at 100. The longer he does that for, and
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the longer the war goes for, the higher the spike and the higher the opportunity
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and chances, the higher the chances of $200 oil, okay? Which
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means the higher the chances of damage in the economy. Force rate rises, higher
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inflation, unemployment, et cetera, et cetera. Drops in equity markets and
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wealth markets and the fall in the property sector, okay? it
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will be a real problem at 200. But there's already gonna
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be problems at 100. So here's
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what you need to do. Here's the outcome of this episode, right?
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What you'd anticipate to do right now. What the smart people are doing.
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Enough of bad news. How do you approach this? How do you digest it? So
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here's the truth. Every major financial disruption in history has created more
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wealth for more people than ever before. You know, there's an old saying, like,
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you get rich in the bear markets. You just don't know about it at the time,
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right? So it doesn't have to hurt you. You can be positioned. So here's the
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first step. My book, Money Buys Happiness, simplifies investing
11:36
and wealth building with practical steps to help you achieve financial peace.
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Get your copy via the link in the show notes and let's get your money working for
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you. Now back to the episode. Here's the first step. Reduce costs
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now. Aggressively now. Now would
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be the time for two reasons. One, you either want to be prepared for
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higher mortgage rates and unemployment, which would be the a bad case, or
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two, you want to be available, you want to be ready for opportunities, right?
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I know it sounds boring, cut costs, but it's the foundation of creating extra
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cash. It's a buffer, right? Because when inflation and rates go up,
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your margin forever shrinks. Facts. Every dollar of unnecessary spending
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is a dollar you could be deploying into opportunity or into some
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sort of contingency account, right? So that's the first thing.
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So cut your subscriptions, cut on dining out, pull
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back on that stuff. If you start doing that, you're gonna be part of the
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actual reduction in spending, which you're gonna help the inflation rate go
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down. So if you do it, that means that RBA doesn't have to increase rates
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again. So take ownership of dropping the costs that
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you're currently outlaying for things, right? So that's the
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first thing. And aim for about $500 a month extra. That's
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a good, just a good target. Can you create $500 a month extra?
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Just do that. Second thing. The petrol
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in your car is obviously gonna cost more. So it doesn't take a genius to
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work out that if you can walk and ride places, or
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perhaps if you're trading your car in for a hybrid or EV. That's
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an immediate gain for you, particularly if you've got a car that's, say, $50,000 or
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$60,000, it does diesel. I even said to my wife, should
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we just go get an EV now? And she's like, no, we don't need
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an EV. And it's fair, we don't. But you might, right? If I was certainly
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younger and I was trying to get ahead or I was in a position where I needed
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to get ahead, that car that's over there would be sold immediately. because
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it takes diesel. And I'll be like, if I can save $200 a
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month or $100 a month extra, I'm doing it. If I had to,
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I would, right? So if you haven't considered an EV, you
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haven't considered riding or taking public transport, now would
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be the time. And I think you're gonna see an uptick there because it's the fastest way to save money
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when petrol goes through the roof. Fact, right? And this
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is the type of decisions you're gonna make, right? The third thing that
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I consider that you do is if you're house poor,
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And house poor means that you own a property, but
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it's making you cashflow poor. So you're asset rich and cashflow poor, and
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it's impacting your ability to live your life. That means you're house poor. You have a house and
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you're poor. Now, I just wrote a book on this and it's just launched. You may see it floating around.
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It's called House Poor. And so if you see it, grab it, because I
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talk about this whole notion of people that have positioned themselves to be house poor,
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because it's where you shouldn't have got a mortgage. You got FOMO, you went in, and
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you bit off more than you can chew, and now you're, you know, you're
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drowning effectively in the cash flow, okay? What's cool about that
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too with the book is I built this really cool calculator and it
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tells you whether you should rent or buy based on exact figures. So
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if you get the book, I think there's a bonus here you can grab. Okay, so
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if you're someone who is in that position, it's really difficult for me
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to say this but if push comes to shove
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and you really can't see a way out, Maybe
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consider selling the asset. Maybe. It depends on everyone's personal circumstances.
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Don't rush out and do it. But truthfully, if you're losing money,
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like a lot of cash flow on a property investment, and you can't see
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it turning around anytime soon, particularly with rates going up and property markets
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settling, or if you're in a home and you know you bit off more than you can chew
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in terms of your mortgage, perhaps divesting and finding something of
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lower commitment would be more effective. Just consider it. Put
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it on the table at least because I think what happens is a lot of people are house poor. They
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stay there for a long time because they feel this social stigma
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around, well, I let my house go. But if you don't make that decision now, the
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bank will make it for you when you don't pay your mortgage for three straight months, right?
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It'll be a foreclosure. It does happen. I don't think people realize it happens. It
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does happen. Banks put reserves aside for what they call bad
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and doubtful debts. And that happened last in 2009, 2010. is
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when it happened from the GFC. So it will happen again and maybe this
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is what will cause it. So either you revisit it now and make a really
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difficult decision or it's forced upon you by the market anyway, but at least put
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on the table. But if it's fine and you've got plenty clear, obviously you
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keep you out. You don't sell real estate, you just keep it. But unless
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it's bleeding you to death. Yes? I hope that makes sense. The next part, number
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four, is I want you to reposition your portfolio or consider the
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position that it's in, right? Now, that doesn't mean you run out and
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buy a ton of oil stocks that already run up, but it might mean that you have more
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exposure to energy and resources that typically do
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really well, generally, when tech
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doesn't. But of course, if you're in an ETF, And if you've been listening
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to the show long enough, you'll know that a lay person will
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always be better in a broad based index fund or an ETF that
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already has these types of companies in it, then you're going
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to be better prepared for downturns in the marketplace than just yollowing
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into tech stocks in America, right? So if your portfolio is
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currently overweight tech, then perhaps start
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rebalancing it. And if you go back far enough to an episode I did here on
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the show, I specifically explained about
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three months ago where I was gonna actually position our portfolio and
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I gave you the exact sectors. And lo and behold, they're
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up, right? Because you could see it coming. So it's not
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too late, but just assess what's happening in your portfolio and
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be ready to address it, okay? Those that have Bitcoin and stuff
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like that, I have no comment. You shouldn't be in it in the first place, but...
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I don't know where to even go with that. But you know, I
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think if we hit a credit crisis because of unemployment and other things, and
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it's hard to find credit, let's say private equity just dies, you're
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going to see a lot of people selling Bitcoin to find fiat currency. Because last time I checked, I
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couldn't use Bitcoin to pay my rent, get my groceries, put fuel in the car.
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Couldn't. So if you're going to see more people need that, you're going to see Bitcoin sell off
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even more, even more, even more, and be ready for it. I'm thinking it's going to happen. So
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I don't know if you own it, but I wouldn't be owning it. And with
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gold? That should run for a fair while. But again, with gold, you
17:40
don't get any income. So I don't know when it's going to run out. It's a Cinderella type asset. I
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have no comment on that either. But certainly with your home and
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how you position your portfolio, I hope that makes sense with your costs. I
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hope it makes sense of what to do now. But the bottom line is to take action. Yeah. like
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now's the time before it's forced upon you because we don't
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know how long the Strait of Hormuz is going to be closed. It could be closed for a whole flipping
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year. You just don't know. You're like, oh it's going to fall. You don't know that.
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What if it goes to 200? What if it goes to 300? You just
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don't have any idea. What if the Houthis and the Flippin and
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the Iranians just keep it closed and they've got all these Flippin mines
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throughout the Sea of Hormuz and the United States doesn't need to
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open. They don't get any oil from the The straight, none.
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They produce all their own oil. They're energy independent. We, on the
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other hand, are F-U-K-T because we
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import all our oil. In fact, I'll tell you this interesting fact. We
18:35
are so stupid in this country, and there's no other word to describe it,
18:39
it's just stupidity. Poor leadership. This is
18:42
the worst government that's been in power. And let me explain
18:46
the stupidity, okay? Buckle up, share
18:49
this episode, pop it in the comments how you feel about it. This is how I feel
18:52
about it. We're so woke because we're
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run by a bunch of Karens in this country at the Senate level, fact,
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and poor leadership in men in this country that We
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not only don't produce our own energy, we not only
19:11
export most of our natural gas and buy it back at a
19:14
higher rate, but because
19:18
of the woke policies, we said,
19:21
well, we won't be buying Russian oil because of what's happening with Ukraine. So
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Russian oil is produced at 60, I think it's
19:31
$68 a barrel. They then sell it for about $100 a barrel market rate,
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okay? Now we could buy it off Russia for, let's
19:38
say that. Certainly probably cheaper if we wanted to,
19:42
I'm sure. But instead of doing that, we
19:45
went work. And what that means is, well, we don't buy oil from
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Russia, let's work. We'll buy it
19:51
from India. So we buy this Indian oil,
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for $127 a barrel, which is 27% higher
20:01
than the market rate for oil, currently, of what it sells for.
20:07
And guess where India buys it from? Russia.
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That's how stupid we are. So our work policies
20:16
are making us and forcing us to buy oil at a very high rate because we're
20:20
buying Russian oil anyway. It is Russian oil. Just the
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Indians bought it and resold it to us because they're smarter than us at business. We're
20:27
a bunch of idiots. Oh my God. Anyway, that's how
20:30
I feel about that. So, I don't know how long this is going to go for.
20:33
It appears that Chris Bowen and the guys in Labor have underestimated
20:37
the requirements for fuel reserves. We're already into the
20:40
reserves. We've probably got 10 days left. And I know that we're already importing it
20:43
from India, because there's a tanker off the coast that's delivering us the oil. We'll get the oil,
20:47
but we're going to pay a ton for it. And I think it's a real misstep to
20:50
be energy dependent. It is for us. I mean, we are
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the most dependent on energy out of all the mature countries and developed
20:57
countries in the world. Think about that. Take
21:02
that on board, make your financial moves now. Don't wait
21:05
because if all goes to 200, 300, you don't wanna be reacting
21:09
to it. You wanna be proactive in your finances, okay? So I
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hope that makes sense. Take some notes on the four things you should do. Don't wait, act now
21:16
because we don't know what's gonna happen, all right? And if you're in Australia, Godspeed.