Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / PGA DFS | TC Houston Open | March 25, 2025 | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: Yeah, what's up everyone? Tyler Tamberline here a ka Totech
- 0:51Speaker 1: and Tambo and on this episode of the PGA Show,
- 0:53Speaker 1: got my guy Hoops to here with me as always,
- 0:55Speaker 1: gonna break down all things for the Texas Children's Houston Open,
- 0:59Speaker 1: Gonna go through all the roster construction, the ownership, we'll
- 1:02Speaker 1: bring up Saber sim We'll go through all of that
- 1:04Speaker 1: and more. But Hoopstra'll bring you in. We're back for
- 1:06Speaker 1: another week of golf back in the booth. I had
- 1:08Speaker 1: a nice week out my boy Rio shout out the
- 1:09Speaker 1: Hebrew Cheetah out there in Arizona with everybody. It was
- 1:12Speaker 1: a fun time. Got a lot of good things that
- 1:14Speaker 1: we're bringing back. But what's going on, man, how you doing?
- 1:16Speaker 2: Yeah?
- 1:17Speaker 3: Interesting week in terms of PGA dfs where you just
- 1:20Speaker 3: really don't see something like this. We talk about like
- 1:23Speaker 3: a top heavy sort of field like this is as
- 1:26Speaker 3: extreme as it could possibly get. You got the two
- 1:28Speaker 3: best golfers in the world kind of creating a tier
- 1:32Speaker 3: of their own up top. I mean, I think last
- 1:34Speaker 3: year was Scotty by himself and then Rory was in
- 1:37Speaker 3: that second group. Well, Rory has kind of outplayed Scotty lately,
- 1:40Speaker 3: so I mean they're definitely one and two in just
- 1:44Speaker 3: like overall golf, and then there's a big gap. Well,
- 1:47Speaker 3: all those guys that are in that next tier and
- 1:49Speaker 3: probably tier three aren't at this event. So it's Rory
- 1:53Speaker 3: Scotty up top. And in terms of DraftKings pricing, you
- 1:57Speaker 3: go straight to JJ spawn.
- 2:00Speaker 2: Very unique.
- 2:00Speaker 3: I mean, I've been playing this for I don't know,
- 2:02Speaker 3: since PGA DFS came out. I didn't know how long ago.
- 2:05Speaker 3: It was long ass time ago, probably ten years, eight
- 2:07Speaker 3: nine to ten years, somewhere in that range. And I
- 2:10Speaker 3: don't think I've ever seen anything like this, So it's
- 2:12Speaker 3: very very unique. It's definitely very unique. So that's the
- 2:15Speaker 3: one thing I'll say right out of the gate about
- 2:17Speaker 3: this week.
- 2:18Speaker 1: Yeah, I love it. Actually, and I kept going back
- 2:20Speaker 1: and forth on I said, I was sort of clarify
- 2:22Speaker 1: it once I got to the show. I thought they
- 2:23Speaker 1: did a really good job. However, again, it's not really
- 2:25Speaker 1: about who deserves what price that we were gonna laughing
- 2:28Speaker 1: stock throughout the show. As we go through some of
- 2:30Speaker 1: these people at these price tags, there's already the Rory conversation,
- 2:33Speaker 1: why is he one thousand dollars less than Scotty. It's
- 2:35Speaker 1: you know, if you go off the most recent events,
- 2:37Speaker 1: it should be Rory up there, and everyone's going through
- 2:39Speaker 1: these different phases. But with three to one and sixty
- 2:42Speaker 1: one odds in the betting market and then like thirty
- 2:44Speaker 1: to one or worse after that. I love that they
- 2:47Speaker 1: obliterated the ten k range. Nobody there did not bring
- 2:51Speaker 1: the five k range in. So I said in our
- 2:52Speaker 1: discord yesterday over at ship nation dot com, it's like
- 2:55Speaker 1: Scotty or Rory, Scotty and Rory, because keep in mind,
- 2:59Speaker 1: with no five k range, it doesn't mean it's easy,
- 3:02Speaker 1: but I'm saying that means there's real golfers in the
- 3:04Speaker 1: six k range, Like there's definitely names, and we get
- 3:05Speaker 1: down there, we'll name a bunch, but it's kind of
- 3:07Speaker 1: like a shotgun approach, like see what you know, spray
- 3:10Speaker 1: and price, see what you can get down there. But
- 3:12Speaker 1: with no ten k range, then it's like the nine
- 3:14Speaker 1: k guys feel like people look at like spawn Rye
- 3:17Speaker 1: Davis Thompson. Don't say anything bad about some Jay, of course,
- 3:20Speaker 1: but you know there's guys in there that they're probably
- 3:22Speaker 1: thinking about and saying, what the hell's going on here?
- 3:24Speaker 1: So there is a ton of different game theory to
- 3:26Speaker 1: it this week, and I like it for that reason.
- 3:28Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be a good slate, So I'm
- 3:29Speaker 1: excited for this one.
- 3:30Speaker 3: Yeah, they've made it hard to play both of them,
- 3:33Speaker 3: which is good. Like if if they were both a
- 3:36Speaker 3: thousand dollars less, which they've done on slights somewhat similar
- 3:40Speaker 3: this in the past, if Scotty was eleven to seven
- 3:43Speaker 3: and Rory was ten to seven, then those guys together
- 3:47Speaker 3: would be very popular and very highly owned. But if
- 3:51Speaker 3: you want to play both of them this week, you
- 3:54Speaker 3: got sixty four hundred dollars for your last four spot,
- 3:56Speaker 3: So it's nearly impossible. I mean, the odds of those
- 3:59Speaker 3: two being on the optimal together are very low, even
- 4:02Speaker 3: it probably probably even if they finished one too, right,
- 4:05Speaker 3: I mean, even if they finished Wasson, they finished one
- 4:07Speaker 3: two in this event, Like how do you find the
- 4:10Speaker 3: right combination of an average Schallard is sixty four hundred
- 4:14Speaker 3: for four golfers, So there's definitely a world where they
- 4:16Speaker 3: finished one two and they're probably not on the winner, right.
- 4:21Speaker 1: Yeah, Like that's last year. If just you probably wouldn't
- 4:24Speaker 1: get to it because of what it was so like
- 4:26Speaker 1: last year if it was what I don't know what
- 4:28Speaker 1: the exact prising was last year, but you know you
- 4:30Speaker 1: had Chad Raimi Toasty David's Skins and someone like Davis
- 4:35Speaker 1: Riley or or you know, Victor Perez in the mix.
- 4:39Speaker 1: I don't know. So my point being, you can do
- 4:41Speaker 1: that and just get a bunch of combinations like that,
- 4:43Speaker 1: but it's gonna be tricky because not only do you
- 4:45Speaker 1: need them to come through, we still seemingly never really
- 4:47Speaker 1: get that right where we're always looking for events where
- 4:49Speaker 1: we're getting that out of these guys and we just
- 4:51Speaker 1: don't like if you go back Rory won Scotty twentieth.
- 4:55Speaker 1: When Roy won the first time, Scotty was ninth, and
- 4:57Speaker 1: it was kind of like a backdoor thing where he
- 4:59Speaker 1: was first. I was his first when coming back from
- 5:00Speaker 1: the injury. You just kind of played horrible but finished
- 5:02Speaker 1: top ten. Still, so you just you never really see
- 5:05Speaker 1: them in the mix together all the way up to
- 5:07Speaker 1: where you would need that. And the other thing is
- 5:09Speaker 1: just because of all the guy if you really don't
- 5:11Speaker 1: you if you have disrespect for all these guys in
- 5:13Speaker 1: the nine K range, well then it's also tricky because
- 5:16Speaker 1: if you're thinking they're all gonna do bad some I're
- 5:17Speaker 1: gonna miss the cut, whatever that might be, then it
- 5:19Speaker 1: actually it's you're not certain on what Scotty or Rory need.
- 5:22Speaker 1: And that's where the age old thing we always talk
- 5:24Speaker 1: about comes in. Well, for almost thirteen K, Scotty has
- 5:27Speaker 1: to win absolutely, not like literally not because it doesn't
- 5:30Speaker 1: mean if Scotty doesn't win, it doesn't mean Rory does.
- 5:33Speaker 1: If Scotty doesn't win, it doesn't mean spawn ry Lee
- 5:36Speaker 1: all these guys come through. Instead, there's just a ton
- 5:38Speaker 1: of different ways that guys can get there, So there's
- 5:40Speaker 1: different there's a lot of Game three that goes into
- 5:42Speaker 1: this slate, and I like that for that reason.
- 5:45Speaker 3: Yeah, definitely, I mean, and yeah, it does add that
- 5:49Speaker 3: dynamic though for sure where even like people think like
- 5:52Speaker 3: if you play a Scotti or Rory, they got to
- 5:54Speaker 3: finish in this place or higher this week especially, you
- 5:57Speaker 3: can throw that out the window because of the drop off,
- 6:01Speaker 3: like just the massive, massive drop off, and the ownership
- 6:04Speaker 3: is gonna drop off two after after those guys as well.
- 6:06Speaker 3: So these guys in the nine K probably aren't very popular.
- 6:09Speaker 3: So let's say like a you know, uh, I don't know.
- 6:12Speaker 3: Random guy Taylor Pendrith wins this week at eighty five hundred,
- 6:16Speaker 3: Scotty finishes ten, and then a bunch of these guys
- 6:20Speaker 3: in the nine k range don't really do shit like
- 6:22Speaker 3: Scotty still can can be optimal, And that just definitely
- 6:25Speaker 3: goes into the you know, probably next conversation. And I'm
- 6:29Speaker 3: sure a lot of people will be running through this
- 6:31Speaker 3: in their head if they're playing multiple lineups. You have
- 6:34Speaker 3: one of Scotty or Rory in every single lineup this week,
- 6:37Speaker 3: and it's easy to do one. Obviously it's not easy
- 6:40Speaker 3: to do too, So I think a lot of people
- 6:42Speaker 3: will be thinking along that that mindset of, Hey, I'm
- 6:45Speaker 3: gonna make a rule to play at least one of
- 6:46Speaker 3: those guys in every lineup, and.
- 6:49Speaker 2: What's their combined ownership this week?
- 6:50Speaker 3: Like it's gonna it's gonna be massive, So like that's
- 6:53Speaker 3: not gonna be an uncommon thing.
- 6:54Speaker 2: But then it is really hard to imagine.
- 6:56Speaker 3: This event playing out one of those guys not being
- 6:58Speaker 3: on the optimal lineup.
- 6:59Speaker 2: So it is it's a game theory week.
- 7:01Speaker 3: It's fun, it's a uh, it makes it interesting because
- 7:04Speaker 3: it's a slave really again, I can't think back to
- 7:07Speaker 3: a time and at least recently the last four or
- 7:09Speaker 3: five years where we've had something like this, just a
- 7:11Speaker 3: clear one two and then just a massive, like massive
- 7:15Speaker 3: drop off.
- 7:16Speaker 1: Yeah, and that's what I love about it, Like I
- 7:17Speaker 1: said a couple times, but I think that was the
- 7:18Speaker 1: interesting part is every week you can find the game
- 7:21Speaker 1: theory angle of this, that and the other. And if
- 7:23Speaker 1: you have a you know, when we used to have
- 7:24Speaker 1: rip match play one of the best slates you could
- 7:26Speaker 1: possibly have, where there was literally.
- 7:28Speaker 3: Getting rid of that by the way, man, that that's insane,
- 7:30Speaker 3: just absolutely wild.
- 7:31Speaker 1: But I'm saying it's different because it's obvious that there's
- 7:35Speaker 1: there's stuff like that when they do something like this
- 7:37Speaker 1: with the price though it does to me it's way
- 7:39Speaker 1: better from a DFS perspective. That's obviously what we focus on.
- 7:42Speaker 1: That's what we're all about. It's not the picks the plays,
- 7:44Speaker 1: it's looking at the process, thinking about the puzzle, building
- 7:47Speaker 1: it all out and going through it. This really is
- 7:49Speaker 1: a lot more of that than you would find on
- 7:51Speaker 1: a typical slate like something where that you said it
- 7:53Speaker 1: could have been eleven seven and ten to five, and
- 7:55Speaker 1: then it's just more annoying to mess around with. Then
- 7:57Speaker 1: this gives us a ton of different angles we can
- 7:59Speaker 1: approach it from. And I will say, like the Rory thing,
- 8:01Speaker 1: obviously the player's quite a different tournament, but it felt
- 8:05Speaker 1: like he tried everything he could do to lose that event.
- 8:08Speaker 1: He literally got to the playoff with Spawn, and even
- 8:10Speaker 1: then Spawn just drenches a second playoff hole into that
- 8:14Speaker 1: aggregate on seventeen there So, but it was like Danny Walker,
- 8:17Speaker 1: Davis Thompson, Jake Knapp, Aaron Right, no disrespect. These guys
- 8:20Speaker 1: are fourteenth, tenth, fourteenth, forteth like it wasn't a murderer's row,
- 8:24Speaker 1: Aaron Rai fourteenth, Alex Smalley fourteenth, rider. They're all playing
- 8:27Speaker 1: really good golf. You do have to factor that into
- 8:29Speaker 1: this week, But just saying it does seem hard to
- 8:31Speaker 1: imagine a world where it's not one of those two
- 8:33Speaker 1: up there on Sunday, And there's ways that they can
- 8:36Speaker 1: be up there and still not be the way the
- 8:38Speaker 1: chat's going on about Min Wo Lee. Min moo Lee
- 8:40Speaker 1: could win and then Scotty could still be in that
- 8:42Speaker 1: lineup with him, and it was a Scotty min Wu
- 8:44Speaker 1: lineup that got there and didn't need all the punts
- 8:46Speaker 1: at the bottom, and you still get it there that way.
- 8:48Speaker 1: So a lot of people think that when you anchor
- 8:50Speaker 1: it that way it sort of screws you or it
- 8:52Speaker 1: can't get you to the top. You can still do
- 8:54Speaker 1: it that way, obviously, you just need to pick the
- 8:55Speaker 1: right second guy in in that instance and then still
- 8:58Speaker 1: have them find their way to the top. Anything else
- 9:00Speaker 1: want to talk to when it comes to Rory and
- 9:02Speaker 1: Scotty specifically.
- 9:05Speaker 2: No, nothing, I do.
- 9:06Speaker 3: What do you think the ownership is between the two? Like,
- 9:10Speaker 3: do you think Scotty still remains higher on because I
- 9:12Speaker 3: think this is definitely the week where it's probably Rory
- 9:16Speaker 3: where salary probably means something. The thousand dollars does go
- 9:19Speaker 3: a long way. The six k range is pretty gross.
- 9:22Speaker 3: I think it's.
- 9:23Speaker 2: At least tied or Rory has more ownership this week.
- 9:27Speaker 1: Very very possible. The projections are closer than they usually are.
- 9:30Speaker 1: The projections do still like Scotty more, but then you
- 9:32Speaker 1: have to factor in one thousand bucks so and the
- 9:35Speaker 1: difference of roster construction and all that. So I don't
- 9:37Speaker 1: disagree with you, and I think you can see them
- 9:39Speaker 1: both over thirty right. That's kind of how right now
- 9:42Speaker 1: is the early stuff. It looks like you could see
- 9:43Speaker 1: them both over thirty just because there's so many ways
- 9:46Speaker 1: to build with them. So definitely think that's the case.
- 9:49Speaker 1: Like Josh says here, I'm still fading Scotty this week.
- 9:51Speaker 1: Been fading them all year. No problem with that. We
- 9:53Speaker 1: haven't been an one.
- 9:54Speaker 2: You can definitely do it, hopefully hopefully it didn't do
- 9:56Speaker 2: it last year.
- 10:00Speaker 1: B Wald shout out the b Wald said, plane lands Thursday,
- 10:02Speaker 1: boots on the ground, We've got We've got a ton
- 10:03Speaker 1: of good stuff with guys in the chat, shout to
- 10:06Speaker 1: our guy og on the whole Florida swing. He was
- 10:08Speaker 1: sitting us up every single day with updates, and he's
- 10:10Speaker 1: friends with Jacob Bridgeman's Caddy, so he had all the updates.
- 10:14Speaker 1: He was even I don't know if you're supposed to
- 10:15Speaker 1: be sharing those screenshots of the text, but he was
- 10:18Speaker 1: texting with him and sending those across. So hey, it's
- 10:20Speaker 1: free world. We love to see it. But now be
- 10:22Speaker 1: Wald's gonna be there and maybe more on some boots
- 10:24Speaker 1: on the ground stuff in the future here, but love
- 10:26Speaker 1: to see that. What what else anything else here in
- 10:29Speaker 1: the chat? No so all right, let's uh, let's talk
- 10:32Speaker 1: about the weather for a second here, because did you
- 10:35Speaker 1: check out the weather for this week?
- 10:36Speaker 3: Oop?
- 10:37Speaker 2: I did not assume. I'm assuming it's not as as
- 10:41Speaker 2: exciting as last week.
- 10:43Speaker 1: I don't know. There's gonna be some conversations around it.
- 10:45Speaker 1: As we get closer. It looks like again we've got
- 10:47Speaker 1: got our guy b Wald there. Maybe he can get
- 10:49Speaker 1: us some updates early on. But Wednesday doesn't look crazy.
- 10:52Speaker 1: It's it's right when it starts on Thursday. You see
- 10:55Speaker 1: a little bit of rain coming in around ten o'clock
- 10:57Speaker 1: through one o'clock, and then the winds pick up in
- 11:00Speaker 1: the afternoon. Friday morning, more rain, and then you know,
- 11:04Speaker 1: kind of steady throughout the day, just normal, tempts normal
- 11:07Speaker 1: everything else. But just thought that was interesting. Any comments
- 11:10Speaker 1: on the weather.
- 11:10Speaker 3: From I hope there's some sort of advantage this week,
- 11:14Speaker 3: because I think a lot of people are going to
- 11:15Speaker 3: be too afraid to properly pull the trigger. Like last week,
- 11:20Speaker 3: it was a clear potentially a clear advantage. Now it
- 11:23Speaker 3: did not play out as extreme as everyone thought, but
- 11:27Speaker 3: it was still close to like half a stroke in
- 11:29Speaker 3: favor of a MPM. Now, the issue was that the
- 11:32Speaker 3: winner ended up coming from the opposite side. They're able
- 11:35Speaker 3: to battle through a little bit of tougher conditions to
- 11:37Speaker 3: get to the top. But it's like there was a
- 11:40Speaker 3: potential clear advantage. I don't know the proper analogy. I
- 11:44Speaker 3: guess the way to look at it be like if
- 11:46Speaker 3: you're playing a basketball game and one team the rims
- 11:51Speaker 3: wider for one of the teams potentially, like going into it,
- 11:54Speaker 3: you know there's a chance that Team B was going
- 11:58Speaker 3: to have two inches of a wider.
- 12:00Speaker 2: Basketball rim, Like would you play the guys on that
- 12:04Speaker 2: team that are going to be shooting on that rim?
- 12:06Speaker 1: Like?
- 12:06Speaker 2: Hell yeah? What I be going all in?
- 12:08Speaker 3: And to golf like there is in DFS, there's no
- 12:11Speaker 3: there's really not more of a distinct potential edge than
- 12:14Speaker 3: a weather edge in golf. And we talked about it
- 12:17Speaker 3: on this show. What is the one thing we said,
- 12:19Speaker 3: even if it remains true all week where it looks
- 12:21Speaker 3: like there's this advantage, not as many people are going
- 12:24Speaker 3: to pull the trigger on the all in play. Then
- 12:27Speaker 3: you think I said I will be going all in.
- 12:29Speaker 3: I posted in the discord. You saw the numbers come out.
- 12:32Speaker 3: There are four one fifty maxers that win all in.
- 12:35Speaker 3: I was one of them that went all in. I'll
- 12:37Speaker 3: take I will take that opportunity every time it's presented
- 12:40Speaker 3: to me one hundred percent, knowing that not as many
- 12:43Speaker 3: people are going to do it. Now, if I thought
- 12:46Speaker 3: seventy five percent of the people are going to play
- 12:48Speaker 3: six to zero play the advantage six oh, then yeah,
- 12:51Speaker 3: maybe I start to reconsider so much lower than anyone thought.
- 12:55Speaker 3: And it's exactly what we said on the show. I
- 12:58Speaker 3: would do it again this week if it was off.
- 13:01Speaker 1: Yeah, I was going here to Steven actually, like again,
- 13:03Speaker 1: this is pure results orient. I literally don't care at
- 13:05Speaker 1: all about anything of the actual result we're playing the
- 13:08Speaker 1: edge going in. I was actually shocked. I will say this,
- 13:10Speaker 1: Like we talk about all the time, living in a bubble.
- 13:13Speaker 1: I thought it would be a way higher six oh
- 13:15Speaker 1: percentage than twenty three percent or twenty two per whatever
- 13:18Speaker 1: it was. The six to oh percentage itself shot Fick
- 13:21Speaker 1: Skyler Skyhope dfs I Hope THEFS so he posted out
- 13:24Speaker 1: Skyler Hope and he had said that it was I
- 13:26Speaker 1: think it was twenty three point four to eight or something.
- 13:28Speaker 1: I really thought there was gonna be a much higher
- 13:32Speaker 1: percent Like I thought, I thought maybe the bubble popped
- 13:33Speaker 1: a little and we'd get forty fifty percent six o's,
- 13:36Speaker 1: like because it was on paper. And you know, our
- 13:39Speaker 1: guy Djen always talks about two incorporating the temperatures and
- 13:42Speaker 1: in the morning even the tempts were like the first
- 13:45Speaker 1: morning was better temps than the next day's temperature on
- 13:49Speaker 1: top of the weather and that. So, like you said,
- 13:51Speaker 1: you pushed all in. That was seventy five percent leverage
- 13:53Speaker 1: on the if you call it twenty five field did six.
- 13:55Speaker 1: Oh you were one hundred percent six o's and that's
- 13:58Speaker 1: you got your leverage.
- 13:59Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 13:59Speaker 3: Another thing in terms of the ownership, a lot of
- 14:01Speaker 3: people are talking about, oh the ownership of.
- 14:02Speaker 4: So much higher.
- 14:02Speaker 3: The ownership was really only higher on two guys, and
- 14:05Speaker 3: is there too much defensive guys Fleetwood and Substraca. Everyone
- 14:08Speaker 3: else maybe like one or two more percentage points, But
- 14:11Speaker 3: it was Substraca and Tommy Fleetwood that got all the increase.
- 14:14Speaker 3: Nobody else got the massive increase. So man definitely stand
- 14:18Speaker 3: by the play, and again, if it was offered up
- 14:20Speaker 3: on this late, I would do it again in a heartbeat.
- 14:22Speaker 1: Yeah, who said this shot?
- 14:23Speaker 2: Yeah?
- 14:24Speaker 1: Shart with Andrew here he said, isn't Texas known? Texas
- 14:26Speaker 1: always seems to have these massive wave splits. I've made
- 14:28Speaker 1: money on that in the past, and this is where
- 14:30Speaker 1: it sort of started for me of where it was
- 14:32Speaker 1: my common thing that I always talk about it. It's
- 14:34Speaker 1: not always a weather wave edge. There's just you. You
- 14:37Speaker 1: can just play a wave right. It doesn't it doesn't
- 14:39Speaker 1: have to be weather. You'll get naturally contrarian lineups. You're
- 14:41Speaker 1: doing stuff that others aren't. You just saw it. They're
- 14:43Speaker 1: not even thinking about it. And even on weeks they
- 14:45Speaker 1: probably should be thinking, or they are thinking about but
- 14:47Speaker 1: not as much as we thought. Only twenty three or
- 14:49Speaker 1: twenty four percent pushed all in because, like Wop said,
- 14:51Speaker 1: they just can't get away from it. They got to
- 14:53Speaker 1: play these other guys. So worked last week for everybody
- 14:56Speaker 1: that had hovelin JT those guys. But just to note
- 14:59Speaker 1: that's something that you'd look for in the future. You
- 15:01Speaker 1: don't get many opportunities in golf, and it just didn't
- 15:03Speaker 1: go that way. To Hoop's rim analogy, I mean, I'm
- 15:05Speaker 1: sure there's other analogies, but just to note it, it's
- 15:08Speaker 1: like they had the rim that way, but they just
- 15:10Speaker 1: still bricked their shots. They still in and out and
- 15:12Speaker 1: it just is still bricked. They had the advantages didn't happen,
- 15:15Speaker 1: and in the end that was the difference. So onto
- 15:17Speaker 1: this week, I mean, the weather will come up. I'm
- 15:19Speaker 1: doing the show tomorrow with Mayo on the Male Media
- 15:22Speaker 1: Network early morning. He'll want to talk weather, go through
- 15:24Speaker 1: a dgenal covered again as usual tomorrow night. He'll go
- 15:27Speaker 1: through all that stuff and more. So we'll get to
- 15:28Speaker 1: that at that point. Do you want to bring up
- 15:31Speaker 1: sabersim and go through that?
- 15:34Speaker 3: Yeah, I just did the first dry run and actually
- 15:37Speaker 3: pretty surprising what.
- 15:40Speaker 2: It's spit out here to start. So it's definitely a good,
- 15:42Speaker 2: good talking point, a.
- 15:43Speaker 3: Good way to start because I just naturally thought in
- 15:46Speaker 3: my head that we would just get a shit ton
- 15:48Speaker 3: of Rory and a shit ton of Scottie and then
- 15:50Speaker 3: it would just kind of mix in a bunch.
- 15:52Speaker 2: Of other guys. But man, we're pretty spread out. And
- 15:55Speaker 2: this is sabers projections, their initial projections and their initial ownership.
- 16:00Speaker 2: I just changed these two guys by fractional points to uh,
- 16:03Speaker 2: make it make it work.
- 16:05Speaker 3: But you know, despite you know, ninety one percent project
- 16:09Speaker 3: or ninety one projection for Scotty, eighty three for Rory.
- 16:12Speaker 3: Then it falls off a cliff to Rye on the
- 16:15Speaker 3: drive run only thirty two percent Rory and twenty percent Scotty.
- 16:20Speaker 2: And it's very spread out.
- 16:22Speaker 3: I mean, look at it, twenty five percent, twenty two,
- 16:24Speaker 3: twenty two, twenty eighteen percent, nineteen percent, nineteen percent, eighteen seventeen.
- 16:30Speaker 2: Super super spread out.
- 16:31Speaker 3: So I'm pretty surprised, honestly, Like I thought for sure
- 16:35Speaker 3: we would just be getting a ton of Scotti Rory.
- 16:37Speaker 3: But I'm guessing the reason we're not is because it's
- 16:41Speaker 3: going to be very there's very uncomfortable plays when you
- 16:44Speaker 3: go down low, even if you're just playing one of them,
- 16:46Speaker 3: you still have to take a look down low. And
- 16:50Speaker 3: our highestoned six K guy doesn't show up until.
- 16:55Speaker 2: Matt Wallace. We're getting five percent, so that's our first
- 16:58Speaker 2: six K guys. So that's why we're getting this sort
- 17:01Speaker 2: of build. But I'm I'm pretty surprised, I'd say so.
- 17:04Speaker 1: I'll say two things on it real quick, and I
- 17:05Speaker 1: don't want anybody take this the wrong way, but this
- 17:07Speaker 1: would be the point here, and it's not like I'm
- 17:08Speaker 1: thinking these six K guys are gonna be super shock,
- 17:10Speaker 1: because I don't think they are. It's more of I
- 17:12Speaker 1: will say, though, I think people are really comfortable clicking
- 17:15Speaker 1: six K guys if they're handbuilding this week. There's tons
- 17:18Speaker 1: of names down there that people have interest in that
- 17:20Speaker 1: they'll try and make it work. I think this tells
- 17:22Speaker 1: a story to us, though, hoop of what. That's why
- 17:24Speaker 1: I say, no matter how many lineups you have, having
- 17:26Speaker 1: an optimizer, especially something like sabers And is extremely important
- 17:30Speaker 1: because it really gives you the eye like look at
- 17:32Speaker 1: this eye test. What it tells me is that you know,
- 17:35Speaker 1: the Scotty and Rory lineups are definitely are very risky,
- 17:39Speaker 1: and even if you did get the perfect storm of
- 17:41Speaker 1: those guys together, you may not get the stuff at
- 17:43Speaker 1: the bottom correct on top it. So you'd have to
- 17:44Speaker 1: commit a lot to it and you could still come
- 17:46Speaker 1: out where you're not coming out ahead. It's gonna be
- 17:48Speaker 1: random loan guys. It's gonna make sense on paper. I'm
- 17:51Speaker 1: just saying that tells me it's tricky. The other thing
- 17:53Speaker 1: is when you look at thet.
- 17:55Speaker 3: I just want to I just want to. I just
- 17:56Speaker 3: want to add on to that point real quick. I
- 17:59Speaker 3: pulled up Rory lineups. We have zero Scotti roy.
- 18:02Speaker 2: Lineup, So just wanted to know.
- 18:04Speaker 1: Yeah, no, that's Uproven. That's exactly what I'm saying. So
- 18:06Speaker 1: that's the point. And the second part would be when
- 18:09Speaker 1: you look at from an odds perspective this week, once
- 18:12Speaker 1: you go past about seventy five hundred on DraftKings, the
- 18:15Speaker 1: odds drop off or like if you're looking at top
- 18:17Speaker 1: twenty odds, top forty odds, whatever odds, it's not really
- 18:21Speaker 1: that good. So with the more guys you're putting below
- 18:24Speaker 1: seventy five hundred in your lineup, what I'm seeing and
- 18:25Speaker 1: what this tells me in the data right now, is
- 18:28Speaker 1: that you obviously are taking a much riskier stance when
- 18:30Speaker 1: it gets to that point. There's only really I see
- 18:33Speaker 1: like four or five guys in the low sevens that
- 18:35Speaker 1: have good top twenty odds, And so that's again that's
- 18:38Speaker 1: some of these things where they're putting them together with
- 18:39Speaker 1: projections and all that. It's factoring that in. So you know,
- 18:42Speaker 1: that's why you don't need double count. I think that
- 18:44Speaker 1: tells the story for roster construction right now.
- 18:46Speaker 2: At least.
- 18:47Speaker 3: Yeah, I will push back on one thing though, I again,
- 18:50Speaker 3: maybe you have some hidden gems or some guys. But
- 18:54Speaker 3: I'm just not seeing many clicks in the six k
- 18:56Speaker 3: that people are gonna feel comfortable with.
- 18:58Speaker 2: Just I mean, I just went through quickly. I didn't
- 19:01Speaker 2: dive deep or anything.
- 19:02Speaker 3: But I'm just not seeing a ton down there that
- 19:04Speaker 3: people are and be like, oh, I feel really comfortable
- 19:06Speaker 3: playing this guy.
- 19:08Speaker 1: I don't think it'ly comfortable. I'm saying that the names
- 19:11Speaker 1: are not no name golfers zone down there. Yeah, I
- 19:14Speaker 1: don't know, man, You know who a lot is.
- 19:16Speaker 2: Your definition of no name golfers in mind might be
- 19:18Speaker 2: a little different. I just don't see much, man, I
- 19:21Speaker 2: just don't see it.
- 19:21Speaker 1: So I guess, like I said, they're not going to
- 19:23Speaker 1: be popular at all. I'm saying you when you get
- 19:25Speaker 1: to it, though, and someone's deciding between do I put in,
- 19:28Speaker 1: I don't know. Let's use a random example here, Ricky
- 19:31Speaker 1: Castillo or Ryan Girard or something like that. Or they
- 19:34Speaker 1: can go down to six K and play Meisner, Fisk, Fishburn, Wallace, Hayden, Springer,
- 19:39Speaker 1: Adam Hadwin, Grayson Sigg. Is you know all these guys
- 19:42Speaker 1: at ic popping, they're not going to get to a
- 19:43Speaker 1: good number and they're probably not good plays, that's my point.
- 19:46Speaker 1: But people like Toasty finished well here before ct Pan,
- 19:50Speaker 1: Adam spenceon like you know, Ben Coles, you know a
- 19:52Speaker 1: lot of these names, Mark Coverard, your boys down there
- 19:55Speaker 1: at sixty five. You only have to pick one to
- 19:57Speaker 1: really make it work. But I just think it shows
- 19:59Speaker 1: us that Scotty Rory lineups aren't going to be popular
- 20:02Speaker 1: at all because.
- 20:03Speaker 2: I know how you can do I mean really, I mean,
- 20:05Speaker 2: I just I don't even know how.
- 20:07Speaker 3: You could do it though, I mean I might have
- 20:09Speaker 3: zero I mean, I'm always aggressive too when it comes
- 20:11Speaker 3: to roster construction. But man, you got to get four
- 20:16Speaker 3: dart throws essentially right. It's like you got Scott, you.
- 20:18Speaker 1: Got Golias to meet up at the top.
- 20:21Speaker 3: Yeah you so, yeah, you need the big dogs to
- 20:23Speaker 3: get all the way up to the top, and then
- 20:24Speaker 3: you literally need to go four for four on guys
- 20:28Speaker 3: that are like five hundred to one to win this event,
- 20:30Speaker 3: Like you need them to make the cut and do
- 20:32Speaker 3: something too. So it just doesn't seem viable, like does
- 20:37Speaker 3: I guess now? Like to the bigger talking point, is
- 20:39Speaker 3: there a chance that that keeps their ownership in check?
- 20:43Speaker 2: Rory and Scott. I guess that's probably the big question.
- 20:45Speaker 3: Is there any chance because when you first pull up
- 20:48Speaker 3: the slate and start thinking, like, dude, these guys are
- 20:50Speaker 3: going to be super super popular because there's no one
- 20:52Speaker 3: else to play, but the lack of guys at the
- 20:56Speaker 3: bottom and the fact that we ran this dry run
- 20:58Speaker 3: and we're getting none of those guys on there, like,
- 21:00Speaker 3: is there any chance like Rory and Scotty get held
- 21:03Speaker 3: in check a little bits a big question.
- 21:05Speaker 1: Check is like I still think thirty happens. Maybe it's
- 21:07Speaker 1: thirty twenty five, and.
- 21:08Speaker 3: Which I'm saying like more like I would have went
- 21:11Speaker 3: to this as like these guys are going to be
- 21:13Speaker 3: both at least like forty percent, but like you can't
- 21:16Speaker 3: really do.
- 21:17Speaker 1: Under on those that number for sure. Yeah, how it
- 21:20Speaker 1: shakes it out? Okay, So the tricky part is there's
- 21:23Speaker 1: nobody in the nine k that the projections or the
- 21:25Speaker 1: people want to play.
- 21:26Speaker 2: Like maybe that's the question. Then, So that's the big question.
- 21:28Speaker 3: Then do people say I don't care, I'm jamming Scotty
- 21:31Speaker 3: and Rory and I'm just gonna avoid the nine K range,
- 21:34Speaker 3: or do they say I'm gonna play Scotty and Rory,
- 21:35Speaker 3: But it's going to be held in check a little
- 21:37Speaker 3: bit because I want to play some of those guys
- 21:39Speaker 3: in the nine K.
- 21:39Speaker 2: That's probably the big question this week, what do people
- 21:41Speaker 2: do in the nine K?
- 21:42Speaker 1: Yeah, I think a lot of people think the eight
- 21:44Speaker 1: k's are just as good as the nine k's. Like
- 21:46Speaker 1: I could see people still going to like, shut up
- 21:48Speaker 1: the Yegger bombs last year's killer, and the worst was
- 21:51Speaker 1: he didn't even really win. Scotty just lost. Scotty missed
- 21:54Speaker 1: a short putt to keep it rolling, and then Spawn
- 21:56Speaker 1: goes on to be the winner, but or sorry, Yagger
- 21:59Speaker 1: goes on to be the winner. But Yager, Michael Kim, Pendrith,
- 22:02Speaker 1: Jacob Bridgeman, Alex Smalley. These are all guys people like.
- 22:05Speaker 1: But guess what they're They're cheap enough that you could
- 22:08Speaker 1: play two or three of them and still get in
- 22:10Speaker 1: there with Rory too, at least too easily with Rory
- 22:12Speaker 1: or Scotti. So I could see, like Rory Bridgeman smally
- 22:16Speaker 1: being a place where people go to, and it looks
- 22:18Speaker 1: like when people go to the nine k's, it's Rye
- 22:21Speaker 1: Davis Thompson. Maybe that you know, pick your poison on
- 22:24Speaker 1: a couple of others, but for the most part, definitely
- 22:26Speaker 1: think people are gonna still be more likely to click
- 22:28Speaker 1: one of those guys up top, and early ownership has
- 22:31Speaker 1: that pretty clear. Like I think even on our end
- 22:33Speaker 1: it shows probably higher than it should be, but it
- 22:35Speaker 1: definitely will be updated. And that's my take right now
- 22:39Speaker 1: at least, so I'm with you, but it'll be under
- 22:41Speaker 1: the forty percent area you're talking about. Thirty twenty five
- 22:44Speaker 1: is more what I'm thinking.
- 22:45Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, And then you go in the nine k
- 22:47Speaker 3: range and like we got no jj Spawn it's a
- 22:51Speaker 3: pretty low projection obviously at.
- 22:52Speaker 2: Sixty with six basically sixty four, so we.
- 22:56Speaker 3: Had none of him. We got a little bit of Rye.
- 23:00Speaker 3: I know a lot of people like min Wu. This
- 23:01Speaker 3: week we got no I guess one min Wu lineup,
- 23:06Speaker 3: moderate Davis Thompson, a little bit of Sung Jay Tony
- 23:10Speaker 3: Fien now showing up though twenty five percent because his projection,
- 23:13Speaker 3: you know, it's the highest projection outside of Rye in
- 23:16Speaker 3: this range. Wyndam Clark at ninety one hundred, we got
- 23:21Speaker 3: seventeen percent of him, and then Jason Dave we got
- 23:23Speaker 3: decent chunks. So we are getting a decent chunk of
- 23:25Speaker 3: the nine K range on this initial dry run, which
- 23:29Speaker 3: I think is pretty interesting.
- 23:31Speaker 2: But again, that's.
- 23:31Speaker 3: Probably the reason why these Scotty and Rory numbers are
- 23:35Speaker 3: not showing up higher. It's only thirty two percent Rory
- 23:38Speaker 3: and twenty percent Scotty, and it's probably because we are
- 23:41Speaker 3: getting these nine K guys. Scotty in the mid nine
- 23:44Speaker 3: K still leave sixty nine hundred. Yeah, so that's probably
- 23:47Speaker 3: a popular type bill.
- 23:49Speaker 1: But orying though, That's why I brought it up, and
- 23:51Speaker 1: we even show it on our exposures we're getting on
- 23:53Speaker 1: the run. But this would make me think that will
- 23:55Speaker 1: most probably projects Scotty to have higher ownership that that
- 23:59Speaker 1: money really does say of you on Rory and literally
- 24:01Speaker 1: two wins recently including the players, so I think people
- 24:04Speaker 1: are just gonna continue on that path and go from there.
- 24:07Speaker 1: So that that would make sense to me that Rory
- 24:09Speaker 1: and then see where they go from there. But even
- 24:11Speaker 1: Rory in a nine K fits better than Scotty in
- 24:13Speaker 1: a nine K, but then people will also play Rory
- 24:15Speaker 1: in two eight K guys if not more right, so
- 24:18Speaker 1: I think as well.
- 24:20Speaker 3: Yeah, for me personally, in this nine K range, I
- 24:22Speaker 3: do like the the min Wu play a little bit.
- 24:26Speaker 3: I guess I don't mind Tony Fee now I don't
- 24:29Speaker 3: love him, but don't mind him. Wyndam Clark maybe a
- 24:33Speaker 3: little bit. Jason Day not super interested. So for me
- 24:37Speaker 3: personally in this range, like min Wu, maybe some Fee now,
- 24:40Speaker 3: maybe some some Wyndom Clark, but I'm not going to
- 24:44Speaker 3: be looking to like jam these guys like I'm gonna be.
- 24:46Speaker 2: I'm going to be.
- 24:47Speaker 3: Siding on more Scotty and Rory, like than this number,
- 24:52Speaker 3: the thirty two on Rory. I want to be higher
- 24:54Speaker 3: than that, definitely higher than twenty percent Scotty, which we're
- 24:56Speaker 3: getting here, So that means them have to come down
- 24:58Speaker 3: on these guys a little bit.
- 24:59Speaker 2: So I'll have some of those dudes, but not anywhere near.
- 25:03Speaker 3: I don't think what we're what we're getting on this
- 25:05Speaker 3: initial run, So it's kind of take.
- 25:09Speaker 1: What do we got for Rory Machailraie lineups? What have
- 25:12Speaker 1: we got for Rory and Aaron Rye lineups together? For
- 25:15Speaker 1: that start, because I think Rye, with his recent form
- 25:18Speaker 1: and his history here, I definitely could see him being
- 25:20Speaker 1: a guy that drops in next. What do we get
- 25:22Speaker 1: when it comes.
- 25:23Speaker 2: To that zero we're getting no Rory Rye lineups.
- 25:28Speaker 1: That's interesting. Okay, the first.
- 25:30Speaker 3: Thing, the first I guess the next guy is Tony
- 25:33Speaker 3: Final with Rory, we're getting ten percent of him and
- 25:35Speaker 3: then ten percent of Window Clark.
- 25:37Speaker 1: So is there a female line up there? Sorry, click
- 25:39Speaker 1: back when you go to the Rory Feenale lineup. Just
- 25:41Speaker 1: scroll down to that for a second and see what
- 25:43Speaker 1: we see.
- 25:44Speaker 2: Fine, one, sure there's a way to search it.
- 25:47Speaker 4: But.
- 25:49Speaker 1: You know, just trying to think of like what that
- 25:51Speaker 1: looks like when you're seeing some of these buildings.
- 25:53Speaker 3: There is yeah, Rory female, high Smith, Rasmus Olison, and
- 26:00Speaker 3: Matt Wallace.
- 26:01Speaker 1: So to me, that's very possible. Like, it's interesting that
- 26:03Speaker 1: we're not getting any Rory Rye because now just goes
- 26:06Speaker 1: up six hundred bucks, high Smith comes down to the
- 26:08Speaker 1: low seven.
- 26:09Speaker 2: There it is. You just click learn something here so
- 26:11Speaker 2: you can click both the names. So here are all
- 26:13Speaker 2: the you were doing.
- 26:14Speaker 1: I was like, why is he just doing the same
- 26:15Speaker 1: thing twice?
- 26:17Speaker 3: I would I don't know who had unclicked the Rory thing,
- 26:19Speaker 3: but we learned something here, so there you can double click.
- 26:21Speaker 2: So these are all the teams.
- 26:25Speaker 1: But yeah, just that that shows it like that, that
- 26:27Speaker 1: to me is not that bad. You are using the ones.
- 26:29Speaker 1: Some of them don't even use the six K guy,
- 26:30Speaker 1: but if they do, it's like Matt Wallace at sixty
- 26:32Speaker 1: nine hundred. So we'll see what the ownership shakes out like.
- 26:35Speaker 1: But I think that's interesting. You talked about Min Wu,
- 26:37Speaker 1: my Guy Sung Jay Tony Fen. Now there there's options
- 26:40Speaker 1: in this range, so maybe that's why too right people
- 26:43Speaker 1: are comfortable with it. But I definitely think getting into
- 26:45Speaker 1: the next range eight K range is where people have interest. Right,
- 26:49Speaker 1: you look at Bridgeman, you look at Smally, some of
- 26:52Speaker 1: the other guys pop for odds, but like Michael Kim,
- 26:55Speaker 1: where you know people might go right back to him.
- 26:57Speaker 1: So so what are you thinking here in this eight
- 26:59Speaker 1: K range, because it definite he looks like people starting
- 27:01Speaker 1: with Rory could just drop down to that range no problem.
- 27:04Speaker 3: Yeah, I think you know what you kind of mentioned
- 27:06Speaker 3: earlier is true, Like people are gonna look at this
- 27:08Speaker 3: AK ranger and say, you know what, there's not much
- 27:10Speaker 3: of a difference between these a K guys and these
- 27:12Speaker 3: nine K guys, And in a lot of cases, the
- 27:14Speaker 3: AK guys are playing better than the nine K guys.
- 27:16Speaker 3: So you know what, I'll just save some money and
- 27:18Speaker 3: come down here. So I do think the ownership overall
- 27:22Speaker 3: is higher. You know you talked about Yeah, you're a
- 27:23Speaker 3: little bit. Michael Kim was fine last week.
- 27:27Speaker 2: You know, wasn't great.
- 27:28Speaker 3: Did where did he finish Let's see.
- 27:32Speaker 2: Yeah, twenty eighth.
- 27:33Speaker 3: So I mean he's continued to be solid outside of
- 27:36Speaker 3: the one bad performance at the Players, and it was
- 27:39Speaker 3: really just a bad round one, like he bounced back
- 27:42Speaker 3: fine round two.
- 27:43Speaker 2: People are gonna feel comfortable with him. People always feel
- 27:45Speaker 2: comfortable with Pendrith. Bridgeman's been playing well. People always like
- 27:49Speaker 2: to play McK neely small, he's been playing well.
- 27:54Speaker 3: And then I think like Saheath is a guy that
- 27:56Speaker 3: people are always willing to just take a chance on it,
- 27:58Speaker 3: Like he always comes in higher than we're anticipating. So
- 28:01Speaker 3: I think you do see more ownership here. And it's
- 28:05Speaker 3: probably a lot of Scotty lineups. Go Scotty and we'll
- 28:07Speaker 3: see Scotty and then down to like ak yep. So
- 28:10Speaker 3: look at Scotty Bridgeman, Scotty th Gala Man right on
- 28:14Speaker 3: with this, Shiit Scotty, Smally, Scotty Dtree, Scotty Grazerman, Michael Kim, Degala,
- 28:25Speaker 3: Matt mcneis. Almost every single Scotty team or actually everyone
- 28:28Speaker 3: I've looked at so far has Scotty in AK and
- 28:31Speaker 3: you're not the reason they're doing this is good. Look
- 28:33Speaker 3: at you go Scotty eight K and you really don't
- 28:35Speaker 3: have to dig super deep. You don't have to dig deep.
- 28:38Speaker 3: You're stopping at seven K, you're stopping at seventy two.
- 28:41Speaker 3: This has a few Scotty feen now, but then you
- 28:44Speaker 3: got two six K guys. So that's the reason why
- 28:46Speaker 3: you are going to see a lot of Scotty eight K,
- 28:49Speaker 3: just because of.
- 28:50Speaker 2: Roster construction purposes. So it is interesting.
- 28:54Speaker 3: I think those Rory lineups are taking probably more like
- 28:57Speaker 3: the nine K guys yep, Rory Jason Day.
- 28:59Speaker 2: This one goes to McNeely. This one's balanced, and so maybe.
- 29:04Speaker 3: That's off a little bit, but the initial thought on
- 29:06Speaker 3: Scotty remains true. Is Scotty in a lot of eight K?
- 29:08Speaker 3: For me personally, definitely. You know, we talked about Michael
- 29:13Speaker 3: Kim last week. If you've been playing them, I think
- 29:15Speaker 3: you just keep playing them. I've been playing them. I'm
- 29:17Speaker 3: gonna stay on that. Pendrith is always interesting to me
- 29:20Speaker 3: because when when he plays well, he can win golf tournaments.
- 29:24Speaker 3: And I think this is definitely a field where if
- 29:26Speaker 3: he's playing well he can he can ship it. Bridgeman Smally,
- 29:31Speaker 3: really really likes Smally, and I'd take a chance on
- 29:34Speaker 3: Thigala and probably Mitchell. So I do have guys that
- 29:38Speaker 3: I'm interested in here, and I know if I come here,
- 29:42Speaker 3: I can play all these guys with Scotty and Rory
- 29:44Speaker 3: lineups and still not be strapped for cash.
- 29:46Speaker 2: So I do like the AKA range quite a bit.
- 29:49Speaker 1: Yeah, I think like Jager, you know, winning here last year,
- 29:52Speaker 1: the Michael Kim Bridgeman's Smally, that's some of the guys
- 29:56Speaker 1: that here bringing up being brought up a lot. And
- 29:58Speaker 1: like you said, I do agree on the gall A
- 30:00Speaker 1: lot of people just play him to play them. So
- 30:02Speaker 1: there is some outsiders that you can play in this range.
- 30:04Speaker 1: You know, again, they're not really outsiders. I don't hear
- 30:06Speaker 1: people talking about them as much. But Seawoo Kim Dtree
- 30:10Speaker 1: good here last year, good last week, like he could
- 30:12Speaker 1: be a possibility.
- 30:13Speaker 3: He's a guy like it seems like Seawoo just probably
- 30:15Speaker 3: has to get squeezed here.
- 30:16Speaker 2: A little bit.
- 30:17Speaker 3: You got some names above him and like f Now
- 30:19Speaker 3: and Wyndham Clark and Jason Day, and then you have
- 30:23Speaker 3: appealing options below him, the previous winner, Jager, Kim Pendrith Bridgeman,
- 30:29Speaker 3: Like he just has to come in low showing six
- 30:32Speaker 3: right now.
- 30:32Speaker 2: I wouldn't be surprised if that even comes down down lower.
- 30:34Speaker 2: So I do like that call.
- 30:36Speaker 1: Yeah, we'reroll getting twelve. They're the fun thing about Seawood.
- 30:38Speaker 1: What's interesting is like he actually did finish seventeenth here,
- 30:41Speaker 1: thirty fifth here the last couple of years. His recent
- 30:43Speaker 1: results are nineteenth, twenty fourth, twenty first, twelve, Like they're
- 30:47Speaker 1: not going to pop off the page, but it's not
- 30:49Speaker 1: that much different. And we know what that means. Out
- 30:50Speaker 1: on the tour of it's you know, two strokes here,
- 30:53Speaker 1: one stroke there. That's the difference of then it looks
- 30:55Speaker 1: really good on paper. So I always looked for those
- 30:57Speaker 1: type of options. And at high eights he could a
- 31:00Speaker 1: little bit more squeezed than like you mentioned where people
- 31:02Speaker 1: want to go Kim Bridgeman smally down at the bottom
- 31:05Speaker 1: Thigala maybe a little bit. Dtree, who I brought up
- 31:07Speaker 1: the chat, followed it up and said, yeah, so he
- 31:09Speaker 1: was a second year last year, twenty second last week.
- 31:11Speaker 1: He reminds me of Pendrith. To your point, it's like,
- 31:14Speaker 1: you know he's good enough, and when he's playing well,
- 31:17Speaker 1: that's when you know you're gonna you're you're taking on
- 31:19Speaker 1: the variants of the boom bust. But it's not that bad.
- 31:22Speaker 1: When he's at eighty six hundred. It's basically three hundred
- 31:24Speaker 1: bucks more, just under than the average price point on
- 31:27Speaker 1: draftings something like that. I'm interested in taking shots if
- 31:31Speaker 1: I go in the eight when I go in the
- 31:32Speaker 1: AK ranger, say if when I go in the eight
- 31:34Speaker 1: K range, I do like taking some shots on different
- 31:36Speaker 1: guys in here, because we've seen how the builds are
- 31:39Speaker 1: gonna look regardless of how people are building. The other
- 31:42Speaker 1: thing I think about, who is we used to do
- 31:44Speaker 1: this all the time, and people have gone away from
- 31:45Speaker 1: it lately. But if if Scotty's that expensive and it
- 31:48Speaker 1: clearly hates the six k's and all the Scotty lineups
- 31:51Speaker 1: are adding an eight K guy in, why not just
- 31:53Speaker 1: look and segue to the next range. Why not just
- 31:55Speaker 1: look for Scotty in five seven K guys. This, by
- 31:58Speaker 1: the way, is still a big seven range. They brought
- 32:00Speaker 1: it back up. It's forty three guys. So there's there's
- 32:03Speaker 1: gonna be no way that it doesn't just spread out completely,
- 32:06Speaker 1: you know what I mean. Like there's gonna be a
- 32:07Speaker 1: few guys in here that get a little bit of
- 32:09Speaker 1: extra ownership, sure, but even then it's tough to really
- 32:13Speaker 1: peg who they'll exactly be right now. But my point
- 32:15Speaker 1: is not many of these guys are gonna have ownership
- 32:17Speaker 1: at all. And you could just run Scotty with five
- 32:19Speaker 1: sevens or Rory with five sevens, or if most Roy
- 32:22Speaker 1: lineups have a nine K, get more eight ks in
- 32:24Speaker 1: there with sevens and things like that. So there's a
- 32:27Speaker 1: ton of good ways to build this week, even if
- 32:28Speaker 1: you are going all the way up to the top.
- 32:30Speaker 1: And then obviously we skipped over it a little mentioning it.
- 32:32Speaker 1: But if you could find a build in the nine
- 32:34Speaker 1: ks that had two or three nine K guys, that
- 32:37Speaker 1: would be another unique build just out of the gates
- 32:39Speaker 1: that I'm thinking of right away. Just it's not gonna
- 32:41Speaker 1: feel great because you're not gonna get up. You're not
- 32:44Speaker 1: gonna make up that win equity up top with a
- 32:46Speaker 1: three to one or six to one. Winner's that's just
- 32:48Speaker 1: what it is, or odds I should.
- 32:49Speaker 2: Say, yeah, yeah, it'd be difficult.
- 32:51Speaker 3: So yeah, it's a massive range because you got the
- 32:54Speaker 3: guys on top and no five k, which when we've
- 32:56Speaker 3: had these guys the top, they've kind of added the
- 32:58Speaker 3: five k. So this range is huge in ownership will
- 33:02Speaker 3: naturally get spread out guys that are projected based on
- 33:05Speaker 3: Sabersim's ownership to get ownership. Taylor Moore, These are guys
- 33:09Speaker 3: over ten Taylor Moore, Ben Griffin, high Smith, Kevin Hughes
- 33:13Speaker 3: right there, Kittyama right there, Andrew Novak right there, rastmus
- 33:19Speaker 3: Hoguard a little below ten, coming down, Victor Perez at
- 33:25Speaker 3: like seven percent. But no one is really coming in
- 33:28Speaker 3: at a super high number based on the lineups this
- 33:32Speaker 3: dry run. But we got got twenty percent, Griffin got
- 33:35Speaker 3: thirteen percent, high Smith. I'm just kind of rattling the
- 33:38Speaker 3: guys that are ten or more. Got Patrick Rodgers ten percent,
- 33:43Speaker 3: got Kittyama twelve percent, We got Novak at eighteen. Sam
- 33:48Speaker 3: Stevens we got at at ten, and he is above
- 33:53Speaker 3: projected to be above ten. He's shown at thirteen and
- 33:57Speaker 3: this nor Guard Mueller.
- 34:00Speaker 1: Well protected to be sorry, you said, Novak.
- 34:02Speaker 3: Yeah, they're showing fourteen percent projected ownership. We got him
- 34:06Speaker 3: at nineteen in nineteen percent of our lineups.
- 34:10Speaker 1: Miss cut thirty fourth, miss cut forty second, fifty third
- 34:14Speaker 1: here last year like one hundred to one odds, and
- 34:16Speaker 1: he's like this, it's like the chalk in this range.
- 34:19Speaker 2: Yeah, people like him, Yeah, thorn Bay.
- 34:23Speaker 3: That is the thing, Like in this range, like if
- 34:25Speaker 3: you're not feeling comfortable with anyone, you can find multiple
- 34:29Speaker 3: pivots within two hundred dollars above or two hundred dollars below.
- 34:32Speaker 3: I mean there is a ton olison as well. We're
- 34:35Speaker 3: getting fifteen percent olison. But if come up, like for me,
- 34:39Speaker 3: guys that stand out, like high Smith has been playing well.
- 34:43Speaker 2: Kevin You is always a guy that I think is
- 34:45Speaker 2: interesting to play.
- 34:46Speaker 3: He's kind of got that boom bust potential where you
- 34:48Speaker 3: can just kind of have these nuke grounds where he
- 34:50Speaker 3: goes five hundred and six under Jake Knapp. I think
- 34:53Speaker 3: Jake naps one of those situations. If you've been playing them,
- 34:56Speaker 3: play him. If you haven't been playing him, probably don't
- 34:59Speaker 3: play him. He he did finally miss the cut last week.
- 35:01Speaker 3: He was on the bad side of the weather. I'm
- 35:03Speaker 3: fine going back to him. Davis Riley, I think is
- 35:06Speaker 3: an interesting name, and again no way that the ownership
- 35:10Speaker 3: is super high. But he's been playing well. Four straight
- 35:14Speaker 3: made cuts and had the seventh place finish last week,
- 35:17Speaker 3: had the thirty eighth at the Players. So he's been
- 35:20Speaker 3: playing very well, and.
- 35:23Speaker 2: He is with the price.
- 35:25Speaker 3: He's seventy six hundred, not showing a ton of ownership.
- 35:28Speaker 3: I think he's totally fine. Nick Taylor, I love seventy
- 35:32Speaker 3: five hundred. I just think he's probably just a better
- 35:34Speaker 3: golfer than a lot of these guys in this range.
- 35:37Speaker 3: Seamous Power, I kind of feel like Seamous Power is
- 35:40Speaker 3: one of your boys. You're you're on him, i'd say
- 35:42Speaker 3: more than the field. And he was good last week, right,
- 35:45Speaker 3: he got the job that I believe.
- 35:46Speaker 2: What do you do last week?
- 35:47Speaker 1: I forget his exact finish, but I was definitely yeah,
- 35:49Speaker 1: I played some same power eighth place.
- 35:52Speaker 3: Yeah, So I'd be fine going back to him.
- 35:56Speaker 2: At Sabaria was up there last week.
- 35:59Speaker 3: Lee Hodge is a guy I always kind of like
- 36:01Speaker 3: you talked about the Novak thing, nor Guard mord He's
- 36:07Speaker 3: I believe he had a good finish last week too,
- 36:11Speaker 3: What did he do? He will dope missed the cut.
- 36:13Speaker 3: That's definitely not a good finish, but he has had
- 36:15Speaker 3: some some maid cuts recently. Gary Woodland, I don't mind
- 36:20Speaker 3: playing him. Riko Joey disappointing last week.
- 36:23Speaker 2: I guess.
- 36:24Speaker 3: The one thing though, for sure, is there's just so
- 36:26Speaker 3: many guys in this range that you can potentially play
- 36:28Speaker 3: Eric Coles down there at at seven k forty three golfers.
- 36:33Speaker 3: There's two things that we know. No one's going to
- 36:35Speaker 3: be very popular. Ownership is going to be spread out.
- 36:37Speaker 3: If you're looking for a pivot anywhere, there's just multiple
- 36:40Speaker 3: guys all around him.
- 36:41Speaker 2: So yeah, a lot of solid plays in this range.
- 36:45Speaker 1: Yeah, I said this, it's a really for me. This
- 36:47Speaker 1: is a great week for m me. I love it. Yeah,
- 36:49Speaker 1: that it's all kinds of different things I'm interested in
- 36:51Speaker 1: That Ross said, is a sea who at eighty nine
- 36:54Speaker 1: or spawn at ninety nine? Maybe it's both. You never
- 36:56Speaker 1: know what you need this week. And this is kind
- 36:58Speaker 1: of an interesting one too, because everyone's laughing when they
- 37:01Speaker 1: see Spawn at ninety nine hundred. But you gotta remember
- 37:04Speaker 1: third doesn't necessarily mean the same When it's very similar
- 37:09Speaker 1: guys around him, like seventh and third, it's not half
- 37:10Speaker 1: far in price and difference. And also it is almost
- 37:13Speaker 1: three grand difference from Scotty, Like what more do you
- 37:15Speaker 1: want to make Scotty thirteen nine and then you get
- 37:17Speaker 1: the full four k difference. It's still it's not like
- 37:19Speaker 1: they priced them ten to seven and you had to
- 37:22Speaker 1: think about that. I know it's still a ridiculous price,
- 37:24Speaker 1: but you do have to remember that. And I want
- 37:26Speaker 1: to bring this one up because I think this is
- 37:27Speaker 1: important to talk about. So there's gonna be variants on
- 37:31Speaker 1: projections when the dry run's done on a Tuesday afternoon
- 37:34Speaker 1: versus when you do it. But we you know, wouldn't
- 37:35Speaker 1: suggest you're building your lineups till tomorrow night probably or
- 37:38Speaker 1: tomorrow late afternoon. Whenever you do your lineups. I'm just
- 37:40Speaker 1: saying the point being it'll change. You'll want to have
- 37:43Speaker 1: the best numbers possible. You'll want to run it as
- 37:45Speaker 1: a legit dry run. We're not trying to finagle it
- 37:47Speaker 1: to be like, well if this then that ye'll say.
- 37:50Speaker 1: Like last week, somebody asked me about this, and I
- 37:52Speaker 1: talked about it. I did a optimizer video for Mastermind,
- 37:55Speaker 1: and I was going through my process, showing off saber,
- 37:57Speaker 1: trying to show how I use it. I did run
- 37:59Speaker 1: a run last week hoop against a m PM, because
- 38:03Speaker 1: if I know, I'm going all in on that pretty much,
- 38:05Speaker 1: I went eighty percent or so right in the five
- 38:07Speaker 1: dollars fifty. I had one hundred and twenty lineups. So
- 38:10Speaker 1: but yeah, one hundred and twenty lineups. I went with AMPM.
- 38:14Speaker 1: I kind of wanted to see what does the AMPM
- 38:17Speaker 1: dry run look like? Because I still didn't change anything else.
- 38:20Speaker 1: I just said if people were to go all in,
- 38:22Speaker 1: what type of line I was trying to do a
- 38:23Speaker 1: game theory within a you know, an edge within an
- 38:25Speaker 1: edge like I talked about, and that to me was that.
- 38:27Speaker 1: But typically we're doing it on a Tuesday, just to
- 38:30Speaker 1: look at it and then roll it out.
- 38:31Speaker 2: For the correct Yeah, it provides talking points. Gets.
- 38:35Speaker 3: It's good for like roster construction, because a lot of
- 38:37Speaker 3: times you can see the type of builds that you're
- 38:40Speaker 3: gonna get, Like these Scotty Rory teams are not going
- 38:43Speaker 3: to change all that much. Come you know Wednesday night
- 38:46Speaker 3: or Thursday Thursday morning, They're gonna look pretty darn similar.
- 38:49Speaker 2: The names might change but the type of salary allocation
- 38:54Speaker 2: is not going to change all that much.
- 38:55Speaker 3: These are the builds that you're likely gonna get Wednesday
- 38:59Speaker 3: Thursday if you read run, unless something crazy happens, like
- 39:02Speaker 3: right now, Sabers projections really.
- 39:04Speaker 2: Like Tony Fino in this nine k range.
- 39:06Speaker 3: If they drop, if we drop this number down to
- 39:09Speaker 3: sixty instead of sixty four point eight eight, well guess what,
- 39:12Speaker 3: it's not gonna like Tony Finow as much. It's just
- 39:14Speaker 3: gonna go to Wyndham Clark Moore. So it gives you
- 39:18Speaker 3: a good idea of what the builds are gonna look like.
- 39:21Speaker 3: It's really good talking point. I think, uh for the show.
- 39:24Speaker 3: It gets us on the path of thinking like what
- 39:26Speaker 3: do we need to do this week? What sort of
- 39:28Speaker 3: builds do we want to avoid? What sort of builds
- 39:30Speaker 3: do we want to be on? So it will change
- 39:34Speaker 3: a little bit, but like for this week again, I
- 39:36Speaker 3: don't think the Scotty Rory type stuff's gonna change all
- 39:40Speaker 3: that much.
- 39:40Speaker 1: Yeah, and I also think it's good because I always
- 39:42Speaker 1: talk about this, but it's not just what you see
- 39:44Speaker 1: others are doing. It's what you see others are not doing.
- 39:47Speaker 1: And that's why we're trying to give you those concepts
- 39:48Speaker 1: and ideas like, well, it's interesting that we're not seeing this.
- 39:51Speaker 1: We know why the Scotti Roy wants popping up, and
- 39:54Speaker 1: we're not loving that because then there's different things and
- 39:56Speaker 1: reasons that you need a lot more things to happen
- 39:58Speaker 1: to go your way versus some of the the other
- 40:01Speaker 1: similar lineup patterns that you're not seeing within Like with Rory,
- 40:04Speaker 1: you're seeing a nine K guy. With Scotty, you're not
- 40:06Speaker 1: can we make that work? With Scotty, you're always seeing
- 40:09Speaker 1: an eight K guy. You can just play five sevens.
- 40:11Speaker 1: You could even play five sevens and leave some money
- 40:13Speaker 1: if you want. Like, there's little things like that that
- 40:14Speaker 1: you can do to get different, And I think that's
- 40:16Speaker 1: why it's important to always look in and make sure
- 40:18Speaker 1: you have an optimizer one once your note. If you
- 40:21Speaker 1: do want to get an optimizer over at ship at
- 40:22Speaker 1: nation dot com with the partnership with sabersim, the best
- 40:26Speaker 1: value is still on the one. Twenty nine a month
- 40:28Speaker 1: is basically the exact same thing you get over at
- 40:30Speaker 1: saber and then our content for thirty bucks more. That's
- 40:32Speaker 1: kind of how that one plays out, But you can
- 40:34Speaker 1: get it for as little as ninety nine bucks. That
- 40:36Speaker 1: was always our goal to be able to give you
- 40:38Speaker 1: less than a hundred bucks. That's ninety nine includes sabersim
- 40:41Speaker 1: that hoops on with one hundred and fifty lineups, our projections,
- 40:45Speaker 1: our ownership, and if you go to our x account
- 40:47Speaker 1: at ship at Nation, you'll see a lot of the
- 40:49Speaker 1: success if I said it on there today, Like if
- 40:51Speaker 1: you're not with us for PGADFS at the very least,
- 40:54Speaker 1: you're definitely behind. Go look at the shut up to
- 40:56Speaker 1: our guy D thirteen Joe, I forget the exact user name,
- 41:00Speaker 1: but D thirteen Smith I want to say maybe anyway,
- 41:02Speaker 1: he took down like seventy k by winning first, second, fifth, seventh,
- 41:06Speaker 1: eighth in the in the showdown streets this past week,
- 41:08Speaker 1: and so congrats to them. That was awesome. But you know,
- 41:11Speaker 1: just your note here too, who I saw another one
- 41:14Speaker 1: A quick note. I want to talk about this one,
- 41:16Speaker 1: Kurky the almost so so bad last week Victor Hoblin
- 41:19Speaker 1: missed four cuts and came thirty six before he won.
- 41:22Speaker 1: Like he's not saying the same class Just that's the
- 41:24Speaker 1: tricky part of.
- 41:24Speaker 2: Apecially, especially in this field. I didn't want to touch
- 41:28Speaker 2: on one thing, because.
- 41:29Speaker 3: I got a pretty big announcement coming in uh Thursday
- 41:33Speaker 3: for Thursday show. We're doing the Thursday MLB first Show
- 41:36Speaker 3: opening Day. Myself title Gee Rise will be on and
- 41:41Speaker 3: well you're the marketing guy, let you handle that.
- 41:44Speaker 1: It's gonna be the giveaway, right, We've got the the
- 41:46Speaker 1: nine ninety nine giveaway is happening on Thursday, So you
- 41:49Speaker 1: got to be subscribed to the YouTube channel. Got to
- 41:51Speaker 1: make sure you're you're there, make sure you're involved. We
- 41:54Speaker 1: are going to be giving away. You don't have to
- 41:55Speaker 1: be there for the show. If you can't make we'd
- 41:56Speaker 1: love for you to. But there will be a it'll
- 41:58Speaker 1: be set up with something on x SO. I said,
- 42:00Speaker 1: follow us at ship at Nation. They'll bring it up
- 42:02Speaker 1: on the show. They'll give some time for the playout.
- 42:05Speaker 1: We'll have a quick turnaround on it. But that will
- 42:07Speaker 1: be the nine to ninety nine package that includes the
- 42:10Speaker 1: Saber sim with our stuff where you can do up
- 42:12Speaker 1: to one hundred and fifty lineups, late swap. Baseball's coming back,
- 42:16Speaker 1: NBA is still rolling all the other sports that we've
- 42:18Speaker 1: got and go ahead, oop because I know you talked
- 42:20Speaker 1: about this a ton, but I was just Rio in
- 42:22Speaker 1: Arizona talking about baseball coming back, and he was saying
- 42:25Speaker 1: the same thing, like with baseball, this is the way
- 42:28Speaker 1: to go. Like you're getting the stacks need, you can
- 42:30Speaker 1: adjust it the way you want it. Just everything you
- 42:32Speaker 1: need is right there under one roof.
- 42:34Speaker 3: Yeah, Like their product is phenomenal obviously, Sabersim, and when
- 42:38Speaker 3: you pair it with ship at Nation, it's it's even better.
- 42:41Speaker 3: But yeah, maybe maybe that's the way. Maybe that's the
- 42:44Speaker 3: way we'll kick off the baseball season. Hoop hoop and
- 42:47Speaker 3: Gee Rising in the same location doing a safety meeting
- 42:50Speaker 3: that could could potentially happen on Thursday. We'll see he
- 42:52Speaker 3: did reach out and wanted some new gears, So maybe
- 42:55Speaker 3: maybe we'll make something happen, at least a video. We'll
- 42:57Speaker 3: get a video in the discord of me partaking in
- 43:00Speaker 3: a g Rising safety meeting. But for Baseball Optimizer, this
- 43:07Speaker 3: is by it's by far the best, Like there's just
- 43:09Speaker 3: no doubt about it. You can go right in here,
- 43:10Speaker 3: so you have all the players obviously by position, but
- 43:14Speaker 3: we know baseball's obviously all about stacking. You can go
- 43:17Speaker 3: right in here and say, you know what I really like, Uh,
- 43:21Speaker 3: Atlanta Braves. I want all ten percent of my teams
- 43:24Speaker 3: to be Atlanta Braves. Five man stacks, not all stacks.
- 43:27Speaker 3: We want to get to five mans. So for DK,
- 43:30Speaker 3: you want to stack five, give me ten percent, Atlanta,
- 43:34Speaker 3: give me ten percent, san Fran.
- 43:39Speaker 4: Then I can go in here un click all this.
- 43:41Speaker 4: Just give me five threes five two's five Man's run it.
- 43:46Speaker 4: You are getting super competitive lineups with like one click
- 43:50Speaker 4: lineups that could potentially win GPPs, and you're in a
- 43:53Speaker 4: really really good spot.
- 43:54Speaker 3: So I love Man love Sabersent for MLB, it's literally
- 43:58Speaker 3: by far unbeatable. Like I said, you parrot with ship
- 44:01Speaker 3: at Nation, it is. It's the combination to have this
- 44:04Speaker 3: MLB season. So we'll be doing a lot of screen
- 44:06Speaker 3: sharing on that show Thursday as well, so we'll be
- 44:08Speaker 3: giving away the winner, announcing the winner, and then we'll
- 44:10Speaker 3: be doing a ton of screen sharing here on Saber
- 44:13Speaker 3: with our projections, which I think are second to none.
- 44:17Speaker 1: Saber sim and ship at Nation combination, domination. Look at
- 44:21Speaker 1: that one we get man, you get those two together,
- 44:23Speaker 1: you're all set to roll. Throw your favorite six K
- 44:26Speaker 1: guys in the chat or who you think others are
- 44:27Speaker 1: going to be on I'm gonna look at djens notes
- 44:30Speaker 1: over on the site and I'll pull that up and
- 44:31Speaker 1: then who by all of you you didn't love it earlier,
- 44:33Speaker 1: but now that you sort of went through it and
- 44:35Speaker 1: look at a little bit of a deep dive here,
- 44:36Speaker 1: is there at least two or three that stand out
- 44:38Speaker 1: for you.
- 44:40Speaker 3: Well, one thing I definitely wanted to point out on
- 44:42Speaker 3: our dry run is we virtually get nothing down here.
- 44:45Speaker 3: So we got four percent. Ryan Fox isn't even in Wait,
- 44:49Speaker 3: what's his price tag? Yeah, so Ryan Fox we get
- 44:51Speaker 3: four percent Ryan Fox. We get two lineups with Fisk
- 44:57Speaker 3: five percent, Wallace four percent, Meisner one, Adam Hadwin, three
- 45:03Speaker 3: Kevin Roy lineups four percent, pot Guider, and a couple
- 45:08Speaker 3: other scraps down here at the bottom. So we're getting
- 45:10Speaker 3: literally nothing. And I think that's gonna be the case
- 45:13Speaker 3: this week where the ownership is very very low on
- 45:16Speaker 3: these guys down here, just not appealing. Yeah, the Fishburn thing,
- 45:20Speaker 3: I'm fine with Meisner, we kind of talked about justin Mower. Yeah,
- 45:25Speaker 3: I've been playing this Kevin Roy. I don't mind him,
- 45:28Speaker 3: don't mind pot Guid, I don't know. I definitely gotta
- 45:32Speaker 3: dig a little deeper in the six K range. I mean,
- 45:34Speaker 3: I'll play some, but I'm not definitely not thrilled with
- 45:37Speaker 3: the six K range. There's just not a ton that
- 45:39Speaker 3: I like.
- 45:40Speaker 1: Let me see here too. I want to see the
- 45:42Speaker 1: Chucky Hoffman? Are people playing CHUCKI Hoffman? This week Kenny
- 45:47Speaker 1: talked about him.
- 45:48Speaker 2: He is three two three percent saber shown Thursday Friday.
- 45:53Speaker 1: God can get roasty hot with approach prefers strong fields.
- 45:57Speaker 1: So that's a couple of notes for for Chucky Hoffman?
- 46:01Speaker 1: What's his uh set up? Mis miscut here a couple
- 46:04Speaker 1: of years ago miss cut twenty fifth fifty four not
- 46:07Speaker 1: the best out there, My boy a Trent, I got
- 46:09Speaker 1: to bring this up. I didn't see these tiktoks. I
- 46:12Speaker 1: miss you, man, but it says, what are your thoughts
- 46:15Speaker 1: on docking Ben Griffin's projection due to lack of focus
- 46:17Speaker 1: while posting tiktoks. The thing is the reason you have
- 46:20Speaker 1: to dock his projection is not due to tiktoks. It's
- 46:22Speaker 1: because he's playing I think twelve weeks in a row.
- 46:25Speaker 1: And if you haven't heard, and obviously the sarcasm in
- 46:27Speaker 1: my voice, you can't ever play anything more than six
- 46:31Speaker 1: weeks of golf in a row, even if you're young
- 46:33Speaker 1: old doesn't matter on the PGA Tour and possibly have
- 46:35Speaker 1: a good result. So when you get up to this many,
- 46:38Speaker 1: that's the problem.
- 46:38Speaker 3: And you know that's what are the subjects of the tiktoks?
- 46:43Speaker 3: Are they like golf related tiktoks? Because then I'm not concerned.
- 46:46Speaker 3: But if it's something else, and you know, maybe we
- 46:47Speaker 3: have a talking point.
- 46:48Speaker 2: But that we need to do it at this point.
- 46:50Speaker 1: Now I got to go find this out. Do you
- 46:53Speaker 1: like any pot guiter here?
- 46:54Speaker 2: Who? Yeah, I'd be fine with. Well, I do think
- 46:56Speaker 2: he's a guy that people will play down here.
- 46:58Speaker 3: There's only a few, so I mean I don't mind it.
- 47:01Speaker 1: Really probably by the way, coming in off three straight
- 47:03Speaker 1: miss cuts.
- 47:04Speaker 2: So yeah, yeah, maybe.
- 47:07Speaker 1: It flips on or maybe four is his magic number.
- 47:10Speaker 2: Could be definitely could be.
- 47:12Speaker 1: You guys aren't even in the thing yet. Fishburn people
- 47:14Speaker 1: want to know. Let me see what fishburn? What do
- 47:16Speaker 1: we got for the Fishburn notes? I don't have it
- 47:17Speaker 1: on the screen, but just to note it here. Easier
- 47:20Speaker 1: scoring conditions good T ten percentage consistent but doesn't get
- 47:24Speaker 1: a ton of birdies and legohead. We've got legohead on
- 47:26Speaker 1: there as well. His recent stuff. I usually play a
- 47:29Speaker 1: bit of him, but twenty eighth last week, he's been
- 47:32Speaker 1: off and on. The miscuts have not been mixed in
- 47:34Speaker 1: with very good results, so it's like it's not really
- 47:37Speaker 1: it hasn't really been like a boom bust thing either
- 47:39Speaker 1: missed the cut here last year one hundred and fifty
- 47:41Speaker 1: to one odds and worse, just not much going on
- 47:44Speaker 1: on when it comes to that, what else Springer Bomber narrative?
- 47:49Speaker 1: Do you do you have any interest in Hayden Springer?
- 47:52Speaker 1: No mediocre results at best lately, but obviously it's a
- 47:56Speaker 1: guy that's capable. Let me let me see what we
- 47:58Speaker 1: got for the notes for Ole Hayden Springer, strong on
- 48:01Speaker 1: long courses, strung good in round one, struggles in round two,
- 48:05Speaker 1: request tournament, winnings in bass Pro gift shop, bass show,
- 48:09Speaker 1: bass Pro Shop gift cards sorry, and gets paid in that.
- 48:12Speaker 1: So yeah, I don't see too much with these guys.
- 48:15Speaker 1: I think these are the guys that just a note
- 48:17Speaker 1: that I was mentioning earlier. It's not these will not
- 48:19Speaker 1: be popular plays at all, but it's I'm saying, this
- 48:22Speaker 1: is where when people start clicking buttons down there. They're
- 48:25Speaker 1: gonna need a lot to go right because they're gonna
- 48:26Speaker 1: be like, Okay, I can play David Skins, he was
- 48:28Speaker 1: good here last whatever they want to say, he can
- 48:30Speaker 1: make birdies whatever it might be. But now you still
- 48:33Speaker 1: need Scotty or and Scotty and Rory and whatever else
- 48:35Speaker 1: you need to go all your way. That's where it
- 48:37Speaker 1: just gets pretty tricky. So I would note that on
- 48:40Speaker 1: that Kenny said he likes Chuck Hoffman hasn't lost with
- 48:42Speaker 1: his irons in three months. Let's see how Chuck Hoffman
- 48:46Speaker 1: not losing with his irons has done fifty fourth, twenty fifth, miscut, miscut.
- 48:50Speaker 1: But before that, way back when he did have a
- 48:52Speaker 1: fifth place, so you know, got to have a lot
- 48:54Speaker 1: more to go with that. So we'll see. Danny Walker
- 48:58Speaker 1: has been brought up a few times here and now.
- 49:00Speaker 1: So Danny Walker, what did he do? It was like
- 49:03Speaker 1: what two weeks ago when he got six there players?
- 49:05Speaker 3: It is wild though with like Hoffman, how like if
- 49:08Speaker 3: he's ever playing well, he's just like straight to the
- 49:10Speaker 3: top of the leader board, like he's just like dusting everyone.
- 49:13Speaker 2: There's like no in between. It's crazy. If he's playing well.
- 49:16Speaker 3: He's at the top like for a couple of rounds
- 49:18Speaker 3: and then obviously disappears.
- 49:20Speaker 1: Yeah, that is what I usually see as well. Is
- 49:22Speaker 1: there anybody else in the in the six k range
- 49:24Speaker 1: you wanted to talk about?
- 49:25Speaker 2: Norlander?
- 49:27Speaker 3: He was sixteenth last week, like he's had a couple
- 49:30Speaker 3: decent finishes lately. Chandler Phillips at sixty five, I think
- 49:36Speaker 3: he was playing well until like the last round I
- 49:38Speaker 3: believe last week. Yeah, made the cut finished forty second.
- 49:43Speaker 3: He's made four out of five cuts, like, yeah, I
- 49:47Speaker 3: could play him at.
- 49:47Speaker 2: Sixty five hundred. I don't mind Chandler Phillips.
- 49:49Speaker 1: This depends what you need. I see like zero up side,
- 49:52Speaker 1: but it's you know, misscuts mixed in with forty nine
- 49:54Speaker 1: sixty for his made cuts are like forty second, sixty first,
- 49:57Speaker 1: forty nine forty fifth year last year. I know another
- 50:01Speaker 1: thing I know, I don't have enough on the screen.
- 50:02Speaker 1: If you just highlight, don't go, You don't have to
- 50:04Speaker 1: go to it. But if you highlight over PGA for
- 50:05Speaker 1: a second at the top on our site, there hoop
- 50:07Speaker 1: and just show the value report. I don't know if
- 50:10Speaker 1: a lot of people know this, but shut up to
- 50:11Speaker 1: our guy Lee Aldric want to give him some big
- 50:13Speaker 1: ups here as well. The Value Report every single week
- 50:15Speaker 1: is free and you can go look at it right now.
- 50:17Speaker 1: There's six plays in there that he's written up, and
- 50:18Speaker 1: he puts it, you know, good detail, how he gets
- 50:21Speaker 1: to them in the course, fit rankings, all that stuff
- 50:23Speaker 1: and more. And he talked about Chad Rainy. I'll just
- 50:25Speaker 1: give one there who had He's like Phillips who you
- 50:29Speaker 1: just talked about, but with upside. He's got all the
- 50:31Speaker 1: same miscuts. But then he's got a twenty sixth, then
- 50:34Speaker 1: the thirty fourth, and then you look here last year
- 50:36Speaker 1: and he was seventeenth, and then if you go read
- 50:38Speaker 1: Lee's notes, he's also one of the best putters on
- 50:41Speaker 1: these greens. So just little things like that doesn't mean
- 50:44Speaker 1: it's gonna come through, no. But like Hoop and I
- 50:45Speaker 1: always talking about letting you know, there's gonna be no
- 50:48Speaker 1: ownership on these guys anyway. So if you're taking a
- 50:51Speaker 1: shot on these guys, I prefer that boom bust like
- 50:53Speaker 1: seventeenth would play very nicely if he could round that
- 50:55Speaker 1: out from last year. Not saying he can or will,
- 50:58Speaker 1: but just saying he's had some upside lately recently in
- 51:00Speaker 1: a couple other events, And that's a guy that you
- 51:02Speaker 1: could throw into your MM pool and just take a
- 51:04Speaker 1: shot on regardless of what the numbers are telling you.
- 51:06Speaker 1: Just don't need to put him and then automatically put
- 51:09Speaker 1: Scotty and Rory. You could put him and then still
- 51:11Speaker 1: build a pretty good lineup. I think that's another one.
- 51:16Speaker 2: The most disrespectful price tag. Oh man, it's it's a
- 51:20Speaker 2: tough week for that. It definitely is.
- 51:23Speaker 3: I'm gonna say, well, I usually don't do this, but
- 51:28Speaker 3: I'm gonna take a guy coming off a miss cut
- 51:30Speaker 3: for the most disrespectful price tag.
- 51:32Speaker 2: To me, I think it's Nick Taylor.
- 51:33Speaker 3: I just think he's much better than seventy five hundred
- 51:35Speaker 3: in this field, like when when you start stacking up against.
- 51:38Speaker 2: The rest of the field, Like I just he missed
- 51:40Speaker 2: the cut.
- 51:41Speaker 3: It was at the players. You can probably give him
- 51:42Speaker 3: the pass for that. Like, outside of that, he's been
- 51:44Speaker 3: pretty good. Like I just feel like Nick Taylor at
- 51:47Speaker 3: seventy five hundred, it's a disrespectful price tag in my opinion.
- 51:51Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't hate that call. Actually again, that's what
- 51:53Speaker 1: I would say too. We've had so many conversations without
- 51:55Speaker 1: this and where you know, only fifty minutes in so
- 51:57Speaker 1: I don't might spend a few minutes at the end,
- 51:58Speaker 1: but like the miss, nobody really goes back and digs
- 52:01Speaker 1: into it. I did a call last night with a
- 52:03Speaker 1: guy talking about some NASCAR dfs and he was explaining
- 52:06Speaker 1: the same thing. He's like, dude led the race for
- 52:09Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty laps and then crash, and everyone's like, oh,
- 52:12Speaker 1: he sucks. It's like, who knows what happened? You got
- 52:14Speaker 1: the tail, got whipped out, whatever it might be. All
- 52:16Speaker 1: of a sudden, the dude's out of the race. Nobody
- 52:18Speaker 1: goes back and it's like, Buddy crushed for one hundred
- 52:20Speaker 1: and fifty laps. He sucks now because he didn't get
- 52:22Speaker 1: the points they needed. In dfs, when these guys are
- 52:25Speaker 1: out of it, some of them on Sundays are just
- 52:27Speaker 1: trying out shots for randomness. I think the you know,
- 52:30Speaker 1: the talk was in Discord yesterday show that my dude,
- 52:32Speaker 1: bad Er Bear. We always go back and forth a
- 52:34Speaker 1: little bit, but I've known him forever, so I can
- 52:35Speaker 1: get along with him that way a little bit more
- 52:37Speaker 1: than others, or I feel comfortable with it. That way.
- 52:39Speaker 1: But you know, is this a tune up for Scotty
- 52:42Speaker 1: and Rory. It's like, sure, if they're sucking on after Saturday,
- 52:45Speaker 1: they might be tuning up on Sunday for what's next.
- 52:48Speaker 1: And if they don't do well this week, they're most
- 52:51Speaker 1: certainly going to tell you that, Oh it's kind of
- 52:53Speaker 1: just a tune up, just feeling for it. But then
- 52:54Speaker 1: came here to win, and if they're in contention, they're
- 52:57Speaker 1: going to win. They're gonna play to win. So it's
- 52:58Speaker 1: like maybe that's a round four thing where you're like, Okay,
- 53:01Speaker 1: now they may just go off the hinges here. But
- 53:03Speaker 1: also we know guys like see who Kim who just
- 53:06Speaker 1: fired every pin? I can go really bad, it can
- 53:08Speaker 1: go really good. It can break the slate and nuke
- 53:10Speaker 1: it completely. So all that stuff is what you got
- 53:12Speaker 1: to think about when you're going into it. Hoop always
- 53:15Speaker 1: you don't know the Canadian boys story. Who loves Canadians man,
- 53:19Speaker 1: that's his thing.
- 53:19Speaker 3: All my favorite golfers are some somehow Canadians.
- 53:23Speaker 2: So it's uh, it's just it's in my heart. There's
- 53:26Speaker 2: nothing I can.
- 53:26Speaker 1: Do Canada since before he could drink in America. So
- 53:29Speaker 1: I mean he has memories of that as well, like
- 53:31Speaker 1: Canadian memories. That's why.
- 53:33Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I can I can hop the border
- 53:36Speaker 3: in a matter of twenty five minutes.
- 53:38Speaker 1: I can be over, no pause, Kenny, He's admitted it. Man,
- 53:41Speaker 1: he loves them, that's his thing.
- 53:45Speaker 3: Yeah, we'll think, yeah, we'll replace the word boys with
- 53:48Speaker 3: golfers and will be all set.
- 53:50Speaker 1: He doesn't like it. Now, you got under his skin? Now,
- 53:53Speaker 1: Kenny Schmid, what's his price this week? I'm just looking
- 53:57Speaker 1: at a couple more things here, right, Stephen. Stephen Fisk
- 54:01Speaker 1: is sixty nine hundred, I know as a hole in
- 54:02Speaker 1: one last week again deep dive will show you it
- 54:04Speaker 1: was kind of that shot.
- 54:05Speaker 2: He's also some other yea for Schmidt.
- 54:09Speaker 1: Where was I just looking at him at because twenty eighth,
- 54:12Speaker 1: sixth and eighteenth in his last three and twenty first
- 54:15Speaker 1: year last year. I mean, that's interesting there, Johnny Vegas
- 54:20Speaker 1: some people that, Yeah, I don't really love him either,
- 54:22Speaker 1: but yeah, Stephen Fisk popped up a little bit on
- 54:25Speaker 1: the numbers that I was looking at here and then
- 54:27Speaker 1: also other guy down here. I was trying to think
- 54:29Speaker 1: about who it was, but can't find him now, Yeah,
- 54:32Speaker 1: I don't have too much elseo, but anything else you
- 54:34Speaker 1: want to talk about. Before we got here, we got
- 54:35Speaker 1: baseball coming back. We showed you guys the promos. You
- 54:38Speaker 1: can go check it out. There's just a ton of
- 54:39Speaker 1: good stuff going on. We did also, I will say
- 54:41Speaker 1: this my final piece, spent a lot of time with
- 54:44Speaker 1: a lot of pros in Arizona and talking about a
- 54:47Speaker 1: logo contest, and we talked about making sure you get
- 54:50Speaker 1: the ship in Nation Avatar and all the stuff that
- 54:52Speaker 1: other sites are doing and have promos and things like that.
- 54:55Speaker 1: I think we got something pretty exciting that we're working on.
- 54:57Speaker 1: It's gonna be a lot of fun. I'm looking forward
- 54:59Speaker 1: to it because it's gonna be We're gonna kind of
- 55:00Speaker 1: be like gamified, if you will. Not gonna give away
- 55:02Speaker 1: all the details because they're not solidified yet, but a
- 55:05Speaker 1: lot of money, a lot of memberships, and a lot
- 55:07Speaker 1: of games and fun on the line. Like we said,
- 55:09Speaker 1: when we want to do a logo contest, we want
- 55:12Speaker 1: it to be so that you can tell your dog
- 55:14Speaker 1: you love them and your family, but you can you
- 55:15Speaker 1: don't need to put them on draftings too. You can
- 55:17Speaker 1: have a picture on your desk as you're making your lineups,
- 55:19Speaker 1: you got to change. The avatar will be official, but
- 55:22Speaker 1: it will be awesome, and I think it's gonna be
- 55:24Speaker 1: really exciting. The idea that we came up with. It's
- 55:26Speaker 1: just how much, how much money we're gonna laight on
- 55:28Speaker 1: fire for this one. That's gonna be the question we'll decide.
- 55:30Speaker 1: But I think it's gonna be fun. I think people
- 55:31Speaker 1: are gonna love it.
- 55:32Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 55:33Speaker 3: I love the initial concepts, the rough draft, and we'll
- 55:36Speaker 3: have that all out pretty soon and we're excited for it.
- 55:38Speaker 3: I think the community is going to be excited for it,
- 55:40Speaker 3: and it's going to be a pretty big thing.
- 55:41Speaker 2: I mean, we're gonna do a lot of content around it.
- 55:44Speaker 2: So excited for that.
- 55:45Speaker 3: And then obviously make sure you tune in Thursday afternoon,
- 55:48Speaker 3: twelve eastern, uh breaking down the MLB. So, like I
- 55:51Speaker 3: said myself, title Gee Rising kicking off the MLB season.
- 55:55Speaker 3: As I said a few minutes ago, the partnership with
- 55:59Speaker 3: with Sabersim for MLB is going to be phenomenal. That
- 56:02Speaker 3: the product is second to none in all sports. But man,
- 56:05Speaker 3: the baseball product is so so good. So very excited
- 56:09Speaker 3: for that. And yeah, that's twelve Eastern on Thursday. All
- 56:14Speaker 3: our golf content will get up nice and early. Some
- 56:16Speaker 3: of it's already up the value report like we touched on.
- 56:19Speaker 3: So yeah, check it out. I'd love to have you
- 56:21Speaker 3: get in the discord, very active, friendly discord, A good
- 56:25Speaker 3: spot to be.
- 56:26Speaker 2: So let's have a big week.
- 56:28Speaker 1: Yeah, maybe Cylinda to another guy you could play down there, definitely.
- 56:31Speaker 1: Like I said, there's gonna be those options. Just don't
- 56:33Speaker 1: feel it. One, if you're playing these loan guys or
- 56:35Speaker 1: these lower priced guys, I should say they'll be a
- 56:37Speaker 1: bout with loan and low priced. Make sure you commit
- 56:39Speaker 1: to them right if that means it's your single, it's
- 56:41Speaker 1: your hundred dollars single entry, and you're playing them. Play
- 56:43Speaker 1: them if you want, if you're feeling good about them.
- 56:44Speaker 1: You don't have to only play them in a lottery
- 56:46Speaker 1: or only play them in a single, or do you
- 56:48Speaker 1: play them where you want. But don't also, don't force
- 56:50Speaker 1: yourself into because I played a cheap guy immediately Rory
- 56:54Speaker 1: and Scotty or something along those lite. You can look
- 56:56Speaker 1: at your lineup overall, compare it. Be comfortable with what
- 56:59Speaker 1: you're putting in, see what you get out. Play it
- 57:01Speaker 1: from there. I think it's gonna be a lot of fun.
- 57:02Speaker 1: This should be a really fun week. But we're gonna
- 57:04Speaker 1: definitely have all our content up sooner than later. I'll
- 57:06Speaker 1: be back on The Mayo Show tomorrow. Tune in on Thursday.
- 57:08Speaker 1: Like Hoop said, for that you want to get signed up,
- 57:10Speaker 1: there's a ton of good deals right now over at
- 57:12Speaker 1: ship a nation dot com. Thank you guys for watching.
- 57:15Speaker 1: That's gonna do for this one for Hoop for my
- 57:17Speaker 1: Soltoe Tech and Tambo lead ship it