Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - Leaked: How Trump JUST Flipped the FED + Stock Market News 01 September 2025

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Felix Prehn - Leaked: How Trump JUST Flipped the FED + Stock Market News 01 September 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump has managed to flip the Fed.
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: Here is Winston and I, felix, and we're going to walk you through why this matters to you, because the opportunity caused by this is tremendous.
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: Let me give you an example of what happened the last time we got major interest rate cuts based on exactly the same data points.
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: We're about to get on a date that I'll tell you in just a second.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: This here is Tesla, and Tesla on the last rate cuts went up by 114%.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: We then have, for example, sofi.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: On the last rate cut, it went up about 130%.
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: I'm going to give you another example here.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: Palantir, for example, on the last rate cut went up about 166%.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: Have I got your attention yet?
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: If I do, smash the you-know-what and let's jump straight into it.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: But first there is a warning Not all stocks are going to move equally, and those who understand how to spot the stocks before they break out, the ones with the big opportunity.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: Well, they'll do a lot better than the ones who don't.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: So I put it together in literally just 15 minutes for you how to learn that.
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: How do you learn that?
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: Well, wall Street has rules, otherwise they wouldn't make money consistently, right, they're not just gambling.
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: So those rules.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: I put them together into a 15-minute masterclass how you stop missing those breakouts, how you actually find them and therefore potentially get to your financial nirvana earlier.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: So phoenixfriendsorggetfree is where you get access to that.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: If you want to leave this video right now, you're very welcome to, or watch it straight afterwards, but make sure you take down that link.
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: It's also down below in the description.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: So what this is all about, this is about jobs, data manipulation I I would use that word and I think it's it's accurate here and the fed and interest rates.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: So what we got here on this chart is two things.
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: You have the official government payroll data in green.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: So this is the official and it's based on some weird metric that basically somebody makes up.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: Yeah, the data is completely manipulated.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: And then you've got data that is actually based on a census, which is this red line here, which means they actually asked people.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: They didn't just make assumptions, they actually asked people.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: So that's more like the real data and I mean no data is perfect, but it's more like the real data and the gap between we're a little bit slow that way, but what we've seen are the biggest revisions downwards of these data points.
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: So what government does is says we've got loads of jobs, brilliant, and then three months later, they'll revise them downwards when no one is watching.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: And they did that in 2023.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: And I'm not going to make this highly political, but that was under Biden and previously, quite frankly, they made up a lot of jobs in green there, right, so they made up loads of jobs.
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: And then, just before the, frankly, they made up a lot of jobs in green there, right.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: So they made up loads of jobs and then, just before the election, they said, oh no, no, some of those jobs weren't real and that caused the Fed to cut by half a percentage point, which just gave us those 100% gains on those beautiful stocks at the top.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: But what's happening in 2024 was well, way, way, way more downward revisions, and this year we're going to see more revisions than at any time in history.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: So, basically, under Trump again, it's not a political statement.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: They're getting rid of all of those fabricated jobs, and I'm going to get some angry people in the chat saying like I'm somehow favoring one party over the other or something.
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: No, it's like fake data, right, that's really all that is.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: So we've seen here already in May that was May, this was June the data being revised down monstrously.
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: But the data we're going to get in just a few days I'll give you the days in a second is going to be the biggest downward revision we've ever seen.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: And how do we know that?
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: Well, a couple of things happened.
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: Trump fired the Labor Department commissioner, who's the one responsible to make up numbers sorry, to report jobs data and he's brought in a guy who never believed the numbers, who's been saying on social media for years these numbers are BS.
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: So that guy's in charge now.
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: And then we have I'll show you that the wisdom of Wall Street, the Goldman Sachs lot, one of the biggest, most respected investment banks out there, if respected goes in line with investment.
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: You know what I'm trying to say.
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: Anyway, they're saying remaining the recent down revisions to payroll, our estimate of job trend growth is now clearly below even that bar.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: And then they explain a little bit why there is this birth-death model.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to get into it, I'm just going to tell you the data is made up.
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: That's really all you need to know.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: But they're saying here that we suspect that weak job growth and concern about further downward revisions and downside risk have already convinced the Fed leadership to resume rate cuts.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: Job growth is likely to look mediocre in the coming months as well, due to subdued activity growth, special factors, federal government workforce reductions and all that kind of stuff.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: So this should support three rate cuts in September, october, december this year, followed by two more than that.
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: A larger cut is possible, but it would require a larger rise in unemployment or worse payroll numbers than we expect.
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: What I'm saying to you is I believe we're going to get those worse payroll numbers.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: I'm not saying we're definitely going to get a 50% cut, you know, not 50%, 0.5% cut, but we're going to get those cuts that we've been waiting for right.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: So there's Goldman Sachs confirming what I'm just telling you, and this is just the illustration.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: I think this is probably the best illustration I found to make this really, really clear to you.
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: So if you don't believe me, take a screenshot of this.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: So in blue, you've got the actual jobs created, like real data, the real data of how many jobs were actually created.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: And then in green, you've got the government's model and that's the data the government reports, even though the actual real data was down here.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: 2024 was down here and in 2025, I'm telling you it's going to be down here too, maybe even be negative.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: So what does that mean?
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: Well, it means that all of these jobs those ones here, right, and all of these ones the government reported they never existed.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: And I think Trump is going to use this to his advantage because he wants rate cuts.
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: He's going to make one clean sweep and he's going to get rid of all of that data, all of those fake jobs, and he's going to make the biggest downward revision we've ever seen in the history of the US labor market data and the market's going to get a little bit worried about it initially.
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: Then we're going to get our rate cuts and then the party shall keep partying on, because these jobs going away doesn't make the labor market any worse, because they were never there to start with.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: So you can't be upset about something not being there who was never there.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: You know what I mean.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: It was all made up fugazi.
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: You know that kind of thing.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: So in reality, it doesn't affect the economy.
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: It doesn't mean there's less spending.
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: It doesn't mean there are actually less jobs.
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: It just means that the data is a little bit cleaner.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: That's all it is.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: But the Fed is going to have to cut rates because they've basically nailed their trousers to the mast and said, well, if the job market gets worse, we're going to cut.
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: Well, the job market is about to get a lot worse from your data.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: That was just, you know, completely made up.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: So what day do you want to watch out for?
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: September 9th, yes, we're going to get jobs data this Friday, but the actual revision data comes out September 9th.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: That's the downward revision, about four days later than the real data, and that will be bigly, in my humble opinion.
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: And here is Christopher Waller, the chap who desperately wants to be the next Fed chap, and he says he could back jumbo rate cut if US economy weakens sharply.
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: Do you think losing, say, about 1 million jobs would be a sharp weakening?
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: Pretty hard to argue against it, right?
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: Maybe it'll be a little bit less, but be around about that figure in my humble opinion.
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: So write this down, note this down, if you've been watching me for a year or two.
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: I've been ranting on about this for about a year or two and had nothing to do with politics, because all presidents do this, they all do it, they all usually inflate how good the economy is, but this one here has a weird incentive to actually make the economy look worse because he wants rate cuts.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: And why does Trump want rate cuts so badly?
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: Not just because he wants to pump the market that might have something to do with it but lower rates mean less interest spent by the US government, and the US government is spending about $1,000 billion.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: I know it's a trillion, but you know what I mean.
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: It's that $1,000 billion a year on interest.
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: So if you can lower interest rates, well, that number goes down a lot.
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: Your deficit goes down a lot.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: Right, it's a good thing.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: It's a good thing.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: But the other bonus that lower rates do is that this is the maths for it 1% lower interest rate more or less leads to about 10% higher stock prices, especially for growth stocks.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: But, as you've seen with my opening, tesla reacted so far and Palantir and so on.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: The market isn't rational.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: The market isn't going to do 10%.
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: The market always exaggerates their move and that's why we look so hard and so carefully at the stocks that are moving a lot, because when we get into the right time frame, we potentially make a heck of a lot more money than if we're just sitting this out right.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: So if you bought Palantir down here at you know $28 because the setup was perfect.
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: Well, you'd be up quite a lot, right?
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: Or even some of our gold stocks, for example, like we're just still buying these last week, right?
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: Well, look at that.
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: Look at that, right?
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: This is up 10% just on Friday.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: If you understand where the money flows and that candle down there tells you that the money is flowing into it, but you can spot it before it actually flows into it, you can set up a conditional order that only gets triggered if certain things happen.
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: I'll teach you that in the free masterclass.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: It's only 15 minutes long.
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: It's only 15 minutes long.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: It's probably shorter than this video and you will walk away with that information and that knowledge, and my wish and goal for you is to do that rather than be led by the noise and the news of the media out there, because they're not really telling you what's a better way to decide, right?
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: Better way to decide is always rules, rules, rules, rules and rules, which is how we know we buy things like this, right, which are up.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: It doesn't look like that much on the chart, but I can tell you the people who are in it.
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: They're pretty happy, right, and you can see down here.
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: Institutions are buying.
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: Institutions are buying.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: Teach you all that in the master class.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: I thank you for watching.
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: I wish you a beautiful beginning to your week and all the best.