Latest / Stuff You Should Know / What is stagflation?
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: Brought to you by the reinvented two thousand twelve camera.
- 0:03Speaker 1: It's ready. Are you welcome to Stuff You Should Know
- 0:08Speaker 1: from house Stuff Works dot Com. Hey, and welcome to
- 0:16Speaker 1: the podcast. I'm Josh Clark, There's Charles W. Chuck Bryant,
- 0:19Speaker 1: and this is Stuff you Should Know the podcast. Um,
- 0:24Speaker 1: and we are going to be talking today about econ
- 0:29Speaker 1: one oh one. That's right, this is Chuck's favorite subject.
- 0:33Speaker 1: I think this in UM physics. I know, I know
- 0:36Speaker 1: why I hate econ boy, because I just money. I
- 0:40Speaker 1: hate money, and some tough economists beat you up on No,
- 0:45Speaker 1: just money, the whole thing. Like Emily pays all our bills.
- 0:48Speaker 1: I can't even if I had to do that. You said,
- 0:51Speaker 1: she's the CFO, right, Yeah, if I had to be
- 0:53Speaker 1: the CFO, then we'd be in big trouble. Yeah, because
- 0:56Speaker 1: I just don't like it. I don't like anything about it. Well,
- 0:59Speaker 1: this is more UM, less household economics, more macro economics. Yeah,
- 1:04Speaker 1: this is interesting. I thought this is there. There's a
- 1:06Speaker 1: historical battle involved the seventies. People in Bell Bottoms, probably Um,
- 1:14Speaker 1: Ronald Reagan, everybody. That's the whole cast of characters. Let's
- 1:19Speaker 1: do it well, Chuck. I was reading an article UM
- 1:23Speaker 1: as is my Way, UM about rampant inflation in two
- 1:28Speaker 1: thousand eleven. YEA. And basically, this guy named Michael Snyder
- 1:33Speaker 1: UM was is warning that we're going to see, I think,
- 1:38Speaker 1: as he puts, an inflation that we've never seen before
- 1:42Speaker 1: in the US. And inflation is this huge boogeyman where
- 1:47Speaker 1: money buys less because prices rise. And there's all sorts
- 1:53Speaker 1: of reasons that comes about, but one of the one
- 1:55Speaker 1: of the if you look at classic economics, the reason
- 1:59Speaker 1: why inflation tends to happen is that there's too much
- 2:03Speaker 1: of something, right, the old supply demand right. You have
- 2:06Speaker 1: in this case, too much money on the market. Therefore,
- 2:10Speaker 1: since money is subject to supply demand, more money there
- 2:13Speaker 1: is on the market, the cheaper it is because there's
- 2:16Speaker 1: more of it, demand goes down, prices go up, right
- 2:20Speaker 1: for the cost of goods exactly, and you have inflation.
- 2:26Speaker 1: What this guy's warning about is that UM airline fares
- 2:30Speaker 1: for the past holiday season were thirty percent more than
- 2:33Speaker 1: they were the year before. H price of food has
- 2:36Speaker 1: been increasing, UM. There's been double digit health insurance premium
- 2:42Speaker 1: race races. I haven't noticed. I don't think that that
- 2:46Speaker 1: has anything to do with inflation. I think that's just
- 2:48Speaker 1: the insurance companies punishing the USA UM. He also he
- 2:53Speaker 1: gives some other steps cotton increased, beef up, pork up
- 2:58Speaker 1: sixty percent, hides or ups you know that run for
- 3:03Speaker 1: the hills. Hides are up. UM and food prices especially
- 3:09Speaker 1: are kind of a problem when inflation occurs because you
- 3:13Speaker 1: need food to eat. That's very sensitive. And the USDA
- 3:17Speaker 1: released their figure saying basically like, yes, porks can arise,
- 3:20Speaker 1: some beefs can arise some, but overall the food cost
- 3:24Speaker 1: inflation is going to be like one percent, which is
- 3:26Speaker 1: definitely doable. If you look at the government statistics, right,
- 3:31Speaker 1: our inflation is pretty much at zero maybe one percent,
- 3:34Speaker 1: which now, yeah, which is actually less than healthy. You
- 3:37Speaker 1: want things to increase, you want inflation to take place,
- 3:40Speaker 1: but you wanted to plod along at a very slow,
- 3:43Speaker 1: steady rate. Inflation is the reason why up to say
- 3:46Speaker 1: two thousand and seven, house grew in value over thirty
- 3:51Speaker 1: years thanks to inflation. You paid X number of dollars
- 3:54Speaker 1: for it, and it increased in value in large part
- 3:57Speaker 1: because inflation. So inflation is good as long as the
- 3:59Speaker 1: center control hyperinflation is really bad. The worst thing of all, though,
- 4:04Speaker 1: is stag inflation. And if inflation happens right now, we
- 4:07Speaker 1: are a prime in a in a prime seat for
- 4:10Speaker 1: stag inflation, which would be very, very bad. Do you
- 4:13Speaker 1: want to tell everybody what stag inflation? Can? I give
- 4:16Speaker 1: a couple of stats because he's one form later on
- 4:18Speaker 1: when when we're talking about inflation, h July two thousand
- 4:23Speaker 1: eight is when it peaked in the last let's just
- 4:26Speaker 1: say decade inflation. Yeah, July two thousand eight, it peaked
- 4:29Speaker 1: at five point six percent, So keep that number in mind. Okay,
- 4:32Speaker 1: I'm gonna write it down. And December of last year,
- 4:36Speaker 1: so just a couple of short months ago, it was
- 4:38Speaker 1: about one point five and the average for two thousand
- 4:42Speaker 1: nine was negative point three. It's a negative percentage in
- 4:48Speaker 1: two thousand nine. And there's something to be said about
- 4:51Speaker 1: deflation as well, because that money that you do have,
- 4:53Speaker 1: if you have any, becomes much more valuable. That's right.
- 4:57Speaker 1: So keep those numbers in mind as as we proceed here.
- 5:00Speaker 1: Uh down point point three four, negative point three four
- 5:05Speaker 1: in two thousand nine, and we peaked in two thousand
- 5:07Speaker 1: eight five, which was a staggering number I got him
- 5:11Speaker 1: compared to like everybody. You can ask me if you
- 5:13Speaker 1: need a reminder later on. So, stagflation, Josh, is not
- 5:16Speaker 1: something that we made up, even though I thought it
- 5:18Speaker 1: was something you made up. It describes a really bad,
- 5:22Speaker 1: perfect storm of economic news. It's when you have high unemployment, right,
- 5:27Speaker 1: slow growth coupled with high inflation. And this is something
- 5:32Speaker 1: that people didn't think was possible. No, and and let's
- 5:35Speaker 1: let's describe that. Let's point that out. Where we are
- 5:38Speaker 1: right now. We have very high unemployment I think it's
- 5:39Speaker 1: at ten percent nationally, pretty much getting better. Slow economic growth,
- 5:44Speaker 1: for sure. We're in a recession, after all, still crawling
- 5:47Speaker 1: out of it, trying to at least, Right, we're in
- 5:49Speaker 1: a basically a stagnant economy, which means it's it's growing
- 5:52Speaker 1: very sluggishly or not growing at all. Yes, but our
- 5:55Speaker 1: inflation is is pretty good, right, thankfully. But since we
- 5:59Speaker 1: have those other two I said, we're in a prime
- 6:01Speaker 1: spot for if inflation does come along, We're in a
- 6:04Speaker 1: prime spot for stag inflation. The reason stag inflation is
- 6:08Speaker 1: so insidious, Chuck, is because it forms a vicious cycle. Right,
- 6:14Speaker 1: So you've got um you have high prices because of inflation,
- 6:19Speaker 1: which means that people can't spend as much money, or
- 6:23Speaker 1: when they do spend money, it doesn't buy as much.
- 6:25Speaker 1: Your dollars shrinking essentially. Okay, so you have a shrinking dollar.
- 6:28Speaker 1: You know, high unemployment, which means people have less money
- 6:31Speaker 1: to spend, right in, Your savings aren't worth as much,
- 6:34Speaker 1: right which ultimately leads to a sluggish economy. So there's
- 6:39Speaker 1: no way to to for this thing to naturally cycle
- 6:42Speaker 1: out of it like this could keep going indefinitely, this
- 6:45Speaker 1: horrible plodding along what I think Carter called malaise. What
- 6:50Speaker 1: he said, I think so I believe it uh economic
- 6:54Speaker 1: slow down as normal people don't. You know, a lot
- 6:57Speaker 1: of people freaked out with the recession, but people really
- 7:00Speaker 1: he knew about it. Economics said, recessions are kind of
- 7:03Speaker 1: what corrects it in the end, exactly we've talked about,
- 7:06Speaker 1: so don't freak out too much in our in our audiobook, Yeah,
- 7:08Speaker 1: we talked about how if you look at the economy
- 7:11Speaker 1: is made up of like a forest. There's a big, heavy,
- 7:13Speaker 1: huge trees which represent really well managed businesses, and then
- 7:19Speaker 1: you've got the underbrush which are just kind of add ons.
- 7:21Speaker 1: They're they're artificial almost they they shouldn't necessarily be there.
- 7:25Speaker 1: They're kind of sucking off of the bubble speculation and
- 7:29Speaker 1: artificially inflated economy. Right, and then when the wildfire comes along,
- 7:35Speaker 1: which is the recession, the underbrush is burned away and
- 7:40Speaker 1: things correct themselves. Sure, it's a pretty um dehumanizing way
- 7:45Speaker 1: of looking at things, but so is economics. You're right. Uh,
- 7:49Speaker 1: And part of the seventies people didn't think this was
- 7:51Speaker 1: possible because of our friend Mr Kane's John and Inner
- 7:55Speaker 1: Kines with stagflation. Yeah, it wasn't even a word before
- 7:58Speaker 1: the seventies. Yeah, well we should point out to it.
- 8:00Speaker 1: It's a contraction of stagnant and inflation. If you didn't
- 8:02Speaker 1: figure that out, So there that is. Did somebody thought
- 8:05Speaker 1: a stagged party and inflation? Really? Oh well, a lot
- 8:12Speaker 1: of people thought bartering was bartending. I noticed that that.
- 8:15Speaker 1: We got a lot of suggestions for bartending podcasts, and
- 8:19Speaker 1: all of a sudden, after the bartering podcast, people got
- 8:21Speaker 1: their whistle wet. So if you're canes I in in
- 8:24Speaker 1: your economic theory, you're gonna favor supply and demand and
- 8:29Speaker 1: you're gonna think that's pretty much what it's all about.
- 8:31Speaker 1: Demand is high. You got a booming economy, prices are
- 8:34Speaker 1: going to go up. Inflation is gonna rise some in
- 8:37Speaker 1: relation to uh, the economy rising. Right. What what you're
- 8:41Speaker 1: talking about is the Phillips curve, right, yeah? Is that
- 8:44Speaker 1: was was that the Phillips curve? Yeah, So that the
- 8:47Speaker 1: X axis of the Phillips curve is unemployment, yes, and
- 8:52Speaker 1: then the y axis is inflation, right, yeah, And that
- 8:56Speaker 1: happened from about fifty eight to seventy three post war boom,
- 8:59Speaker 1: things were rising in that in sort of a not
- 9:01Speaker 1: a wonder one ratio, but it even happened before then,
- 9:05Speaker 1: Like the Phillips curve is is vetted that that it
- 9:08Speaker 1: is correct. Basically, as unemployment rises, inflation goes down naturally,
- 9:16Speaker 1: and if you have low unemployment, inflation rises if the
- 9:21Speaker 1: converse is true, supposedly right, And the reason why is
- 9:25Speaker 1: because when unemployments high, demand is low, therefore inflation is down.
- 9:31Speaker 1: Prices are low, so inflation is down. And historically this
- 9:35Speaker 1: this holds up if you go back and chart all
- 9:38Speaker 1: this up to the seventies, this is this was the case,
- 9:42Speaker 1: and that's how it is naturally. The problem is the
- 9:45Speaker 1: FED in the sixties thought, well, if we just keep
- 9:49Speaker 1: unemployment artificially low, will trade that off for slightly higher inflation.
- 9:54Speaker 1: But we can keep on top of that so we
- 9:56Speaker 1: can expect high inflation and act accordingly, but we'll have
- 10:00Speaker 1: artificially low unemployment or near full employment, which is where
- 10:04Speaker 1: everybody's employing. Yeah. They basically thought the rate of inflation
- 10:07Speaker 1: would rise in a safe manner that they could keep
- 10:10Speaker 1: up with. Yes, do you remember I don't know if
- 10:12Speaker 1: I've used this before, but do you remember um that
- 10:14Speaker 1: Simpsons where Homer brings home Pinty the lobster. Have I
- 10:18Speaker 1: used this one before and puts Pinchy in the fish
- 10:21Speaker 1: tank And Pinching needs salt water, but the goldfish needs freshwater,
- 10:25Speaker 1: so it keeps adding salt and then like regular water
- 10:28Speaker 1: until they're both like half floating in the middle of
- 10:30Speaker 1: trying to balance it, and you end up killing both. Right.
- 10:33Speaker 1: But that's kind of what you have to do if
- 10:35Speaker 1: you're going to get in and regulate the economy, if
- 10:38Speaker 1: you're not just going to let it do its own thing,
- 10:41Speaker 1: you have that's the that's the trick you have to
- 10:43Speaker 1: do to keep a scary job. Oh yeah, it's gotta
- 10:45Speaker 1: be terrifying. Imagine the pressure that like Bernanke and those
- 10:48Speaker 1: who preceded him are under, because I mean, history will
- 10:51Speaker 1: make a villain or a monster or a hero out
- 10:54Speaker 1: of you depending on what you do. You're not going
- 10:57Speaker 1: to just do nothing. It's you're going to leave an
- 11:00Speaker 1: impression on depending on what you did. Like, you can't
- 11:04Speaker 1: go in and lead the FED and be like, I'm
- 11:05Speaker 1: not doing anything. You know, it's two thumbs and wouldn't
- 11:08Speaker 1: want that job. This guy right here. So you said
- 11:12Speaker 1: they got it wrong, Yeah, they got the Philip they
- 11:16Speaker 1: got their interpretation of the Phillips curb wrong. Yeah, and
- 11:18Speaker 1: what that produced is called a wage price spiral. And
- 11:22Speaker 1: we can get into more detail, but the long and
- 11:24Speaker 1: short of it is that inflation rows faster than wages.
- 11:27Speaker 1: Did you want to know how let's hear it. Well,
- 11:31Speaker 1: this is this is what basically bucked the Phillips curve.
- 11:36Speaker 1: Is that through government spending, like the government can spend
- 11:39Speaker 1: on uh, infrastructure, the public sector to create jobs right
- 11:44Speaker 1: through government spending UM and through you know tax policy
- 11:50Speaker 1: that that forms UM the way the government can create
- 11:54Speaker 1: or manipulate aggregate demand. Okay, I's say for example, you
- 11:58Speaker 1: keep taxes low and you increase consumer spending, you can
- 12:02Speaker 1: kick start an economy. Right. Um, you keep unemployment low,
- 12:07Speaker 1: you trade off for a higher rate of inflation, like
- 12:09Speaker 1: we saw they did. That's fine, that can conceivably work.
- 12:12Speaker 1: The problem is they put too much money into an economy,
- 12:16Speaker 1: kept pumping money into the economy no matter what. And
- 12:19Speaker 1: what they found was, like you said, the wage price spiral,
- 12:22Speaker 1: and basically it's where prices rise. So the the they
- 12:26Speaker 1: the fed, new that inflation was going to happen. But
- 12:29Speaker 1: when inflation happens, prices rise. When labor is sitting there
- 12:32Speaker 1: working their tail off and prices are rising, they make
- 12:35Speaker 1: the assumption that that means that industry, their bosses, their
- 12:40Speaker 1: employers are making gobs of cash. Well, labor says, we
- 12:43Speaker 1: want some of that cash, so give us more, give
- 12:47Speaker 1: us higher wages, which they did to a certain degree,
- 12:50Speaker 1: but they couldn't keep up. But the problem with that
- 12:52Speaker 1: if you're if you're captain of industry, is that if
- 12:56Speaker 1: you pay more, that raises your cost of product, which
- 13:00Speaker 1: means that you have to raise the price, which means
- 13:03Speaker 1: that your employees need more money because of inflation, and
- 13:06Speaker 1: it creates this again another vicious cycle, and that's the
- 13:09Speaker 1: wage price spiral. It spirals upward and um basically eventually
- 13:15Speaker 1: employers stop increasing wages and inflation just takes off. And
- 13:19Speaker 1: we might have survived that Josh in the seventies, as
- 13:22Speaker 1: bad as it was, we might have eked through if
- 13:24Speaker 1: it were not for the oil embargo of nineteen seventy three.
- 13:29Speaker 1: When everyone knows oil went through the roof, and that's
- 13:31Speaker 1: not just uh, you know Sally at the gas pomp,
- 13:35Speaker 1: that's across all industry, and it the that coupled with
- 13:39Speaker 1: everything else going on, all of a sudden. In nineteen seventy,
- 13:43Speaker 1: inflation was at five point five percent, which in July
- 13:46Speaker 1: tw two thousand eight, I said it was five point six.
- 13:49Speaker 1: So in nineteen seventy they thought it was high at
- 13:51Speaker 1: five point five, seventy four, twelve point two, and then
- 13:56Speaker 1: it peaked at thirteen point three percent in nineteen s
- 13:59Speaker 1: and again most economists agree that you want an economy
- 14:03Speaker 1: that's inflating in about two percent a year. This is yeah,
- 14:07Speaker 1: I mean into July two thousand eight at five point
- 14:10Speaker 1: six percent, people were freaking and imagine thirteen point three percent.
- 14:14Speaker 1: So basically Carter's just standing around, just getting it from
- 14:18Speaker 1: all sides. He's got hostages in a ran that he
- 14:21Speaker 1: can't get get um released. Um, he's got malaise forever.
- 14:26Speaker 1: You got stock market that basically stopped working, right, he's
- 14:29Speaker 1: got brownouts and lines of the gas pump, and yeah,
- 14:33Speaker 1: he's got an economy that's um and out of control
- 14:37Speaker 1: of inflation. He has no idea what to do. Right,
- 14:40Speaker 1: then insteps. This guy named Paul Volker cannot throw in
- 14:43Speaker 1: one more stat Uh talked about the stock market. From
- 14:47Speaker 1: seventy to seventy nine, the SMP five returned an average
- 14:50Speaker 1: of five point nine percent annually. But when you've got UH,
- 14:54Speaker 1: the inflation that you subtract, you're actually losing money. The
- 14:57Speaker 1: entire market is losing money two point six per center, right,
- 15:00Speaker 1: two point six percentage points lower than inflation. So basically
- 15:04Speaker 1: everybody's throwing in on the stock market during that time
- 15:07Speaker 1: was paying two point six percent in losses. Not good, No,
- 15:13Speaker 1: that's very bad, especially couple with inflation. People like you said,
- 15:16Speaker 1: we're freaking out right, So bring us on to the
- 15:19Speaker 1: savior of sorts. So Paul Vulker comes along, and you
- 15:22Speaker 1: might recognize that named chuck. He's an economic advisor to Obama,
- 15:27Speaker 1: but he got his chops as the head of the FED. UM.
- 15:32Speaker 1: And in nineteen seventy nine he basically says, Okay, Kensian
- 15:36Speaker 1: liberal monetary policy is is done. It's failing us, or
- 15:41Speaker 1: we're falling apart right now. We have to try something else.
- 15:45Speaker 1: And basically what they tried was the stuff that was created.
- 15:48Speaker 1: It's it's called neoliberalism. Is created by a guy named
- 15:52Speaker 1: Milton Friedman. Yes, and his basic formula was, quote too
- 15:58Speaker 1: much money chasing too few goods. So the Fed's free
- 16:01Speaker 1: up too much money to circulate in the economy, and
- 16:04Speaker 1: that's not a good thing. Right. So everything we see
- 16:07Speaker 1: the FED doing now is based on Freedman's economic policies. Right. Um,
- 16:13Speaker 1: Remember we said that um with with the FED in
- 16:18Speaker 1: the sixties and then the seventies. Um that their whole
- 16:21Speaker 1: thing was throw more money at it because that will
- 16:23Speaker 1: increase spending, which will increase demand, and yetta, yetta, everything
- 16:27Speaker 1: will be fine in the midst of this emergency. The
- 16:30Speaker 1: what's considered the fatal flaw they made was that rather
- 16:33Speaker 1: than start sucking up some of this money to make
- 16:36Speaker 1: it more scarce, and two Hens make it more valuable. UM,
- 16:40Speaker 1: they they pump more money into it. Well, Vulker comes along,
- 16:44Speaker 1: using Freedman's ideas and says, we gotta get some money
- 16:47Speaker 1: off of the market, so we're gonna start buying it up.
- 16:50Speaker 1: And what they did was they started issuing treasury bonds.
- 16:53Speaker 1: They sold t bills. That's how the government issues and
- 16:57Speaker 1: UM and purchases debt, and that's how they control the
- 17:00Speaker 1: amount of money on the market. You know that. Yeah,
- 17:03Speaker 1: that's Freedman's ideas. So when the economy is good, they're
- 17:06Speaker 1: gonna raise interest rates to slow down the flow of
- 17:10Speaker 1: money basically, yeah, because bubbles no better than a recession. Yeah,
- 17:14Speaker 1: and the same in reverse. When the economy is tanking,
- 17:16Speaker 1: they're gonna lower the interest rate and say, hey, go
- 17:18Speaker 1: out by house because look how it is exactly which
- 17:20Speaker 1: is exactly what they're doing right now, what we're seeing
- 17:22Speaker 1: right now. It was started in nineteen seventy nine, and
- 17:25Speaker 1: it didn't really exist, at least in practice in the
- 17:28Speaker 1: United States before then. Apparently Freedman and his UM people
- 17:32Speaker 1: tested out these theories. Is neoliberalism with UM in Chile
- 17:37Speaker 1: when Augusto Pinochet with US back c I A coup
- 17:43Speaker 1: um took over the Freedman's Chicago School. People went down
- 17:48Speaker 1: there were like, hey, let us help you set up
- 17:49Speaker 1: this new economy. Yeah, that's what happened in Iraq. Apparently
- 17:54Speaker 1: it was designed to figure out how to get the
- 17:57Speaker 1: u S mits in other entries coffers by setting up
- 18:02Speaker 1: an economy that was very friendly to capitalism. It's it
- 18:06Speaker 1: happens here now too. One of the results of it, Chuck,
- 18:09Speaker 1: is when you cut off the flow of money. And
- 18:13Speaker 1: this was the reason why they didn't why the the
- 18:15Speaker 1: FED in the sixties and seventies didn't think to do this.
- 18:18Speaker 1: When you cut off the flow of money, that means
- 18:20Speaker 1: companies have less money. Right, demand goes down and people
- 18:25Speaker 1: get laid off. So, since the focus of the FED
- 18:28Speaker 1: during the post war boom and up into the late
- 18:31Speaker 1: seventies was to keep unemployment as low as possible, it
- 18:34Speaker 1: was all on jobs. At the time, the way Freeman
- 18:37Speaker 1: looked at it was the opposite, like, no, you don't
- 18:39Speaker 1: focus on that. You focus on keeping the economy growing
- 18:43Speaker 1: in a manageable pace. Maybe don't worry quite so much
- 18:45Speaker 1: about unemployment. As a result of that, you took off money,
- 18:49Speaker 1: unemployment goes up. So inflation and in fact is what
- 18:52Speaker 1: the current standards think controls the economy more so than
- 18:56Speaker 1: the joblessness rate. Right. Interesting, Well, there's less uh focus
- 19:01Speaker 1: on on although it is a factor and a cause
- 19:05Speaker 1: for concern. It's anything like it was as far as
- 19:07Speaker 1: Fed monetary policy went in the sixties. The thing is,
- 19:11Speaker 1: Freedman gets tons Freedman and Vulcar get tons of credit.
- 19:16Speaker 1: But they fix the economy by kicking in like basically
- 19:20Speaker 1: kickstarting a recession. Yeah, and the recession was painful, but
- 19:23Speaker 1: then inflation stabilized, so it does work. But you're gonna
- 19:26Speaker 1: have to go through an impression and a recession. Well yeah.
- 19:29Speaker 1: And the trick is is the Fed has to predict
- 19:33Speaker 1: the short term and the long term and they have
- 19:35Speaker 1: to identify when that where that exact point is, or
- 19:39Speaker 1: maybe not exact, but get pretty close when they need
- 19:43Speaker 1: to start controlling that money flow again and the interest rates,
- 19:46Speaker 1: and good lord, it's on the hands of a few,
- 19:49Speaker 1: it isn't it. Right, Well, if you if you raise
- 19:51Speaker 1: interest rates too early, um, what you're going to do
- 19:54Speaker 1: is stop borrow when you're gonna stop growth. Right, So
- 19:58Speaker 1: if you're if you're economy hasn't really been kickstarted, is
- 20:02Speaker 1: on its own. Um, then you're gonna you're gonna push
- 20:05Speaker 1: it right back into a reception, a double difference session. Right. Um,
- 20:08Speaker 1: if you wait too long, then there's gonna be too
- 20:11Speaker 1: much money on the market, which is what that guy
- 20:14Speaker 1: I was talking about at the beginning is worried about
- 20:16Speaker 1: that there's a lot of money and like cash reserves
- 20:19Speaker 1: and banks and people hoarding it. But once it eventually
- 20:21Speaker 1: hits the market, our inflation is going to just go
- 20:24Speaker 1: through the roof. You worried about stagflation as you think
- 20:26Speaker 1: it's common. He's worried about inflation. And if if, if
- 20:30Speaker 1: we remain in these factors, then I'm saying that would
- 20:33Speaker 1: cause stag inflation. But um, I guess I got one
- 20:37Speaker 1: last thing. What you got? The irony of Freedman's success
- 20:42Speaker 1: proves the Phillips curve works. Yeah. When he when his
- 20:47Speaker 1: policies carried out by Vulker kicked in, unemployment, unemployment rose,
- 20:52Speaker 1: inflation went down. Yeah, you're right. Yeah, I've never felt
- 20:55Speaker 1: so helpless in my life. Yeah, we're we're in trouble.
- 20:58Speaker 1: We're just as small but small little pieces in this
- 21:01Speaker 1: whole puzzle. Yeah we are. Um, that's why they call
- 21:03Speaker 1: it macro economics. And that's why you're concerned with microeconomics
- 21:09Speaker 1: because you love your CFO exactly the end and my
- 21:12Speaker 1: house right just reset lower, So I'm all, I'm all
- 21:15Speaker 1: happy right now, I said the end? Oh sorry, Uh.
- 21:19Speaker 1: If you want to learn more about stag inflation, um,
- 21:22Speaker 1: can I borrow some money? Then chuck? No, because that's
- 21:25Speaker 1: going to be used to paid on other debt. It's
- 21:27Speaker 1: all a big visious cycle like we thought. Oh well,
- 21:29Speaker 1: while we're on it, while are you talking about debt?
- 21:31Speaker 1: Um f y I if you have fixed debt? Right? Yeah, Um,
- 21:35Speaker 1: let's say you owe somebody twelve dollars. Best time to
- 21:38Speaker 1: owe to pay that that money off is when inflation
- 21:41Speaker 1: is high, money is cheap and abundant. Good point. Yeah,
- 21:44Speaker 1: it's best to save when money is cheap or whey
- 21:47Speaker 1: is expensive. Right, all right, So that's it, right, Truer
- 21:52Speaker 1: words have never been spoken, that is it. If you
- 21:54Speaker 1: want to learn more about stag inflation and see a
- 21:57Speaker 1: really sad line of nineteen eighties auto workers in Detroit,
- 22:03Speaker 1: you can type in stagflation in the search bart how
- 22:06Speaker 1: stuff works dot com, And as always, we encourage you
- 22:09Speaker 1: to read all of our economics articles because they are fascinating,
- 22:13Speaker 1: I said, search bar right. Well, that means it's time
- 22:16Speaker 1: for a listener mail. Hey guys, how this is from
- 22:21Speaker 1: Jason How Hey guys, how's it going? I hope all
- 22:22Speaker 1: as well? Catching up on the podcast and Chuck mentioned
- 22:25Speaker 1: that he had a big wheel but wanted a green machine. Well,
- 22:28Speaker 1: my first memory actually is of a green machine. My
- 22:30Speaker 1: friend Boomer got one, and my mom Dot who was
- 22:34Speaker 1: the greatest mother ever by the way, uh and I
- 22:37Speaker 1: lived in an apartment complex. She was sitting on the
- 22:39Speaker 1: bench outside with her neighbor and I went to the
- 22:40Speaker 1: top of the hill to try this green machine. Out.
- 22:43Speaker 1: Came down as fast as I could, because that's what
- 22:46Speaker 1: you do, and uh I could Uh. I figured I
- 22:49Speaker 1: would skid right out in front of the bench. I
- 22:51Speaker 1: was going very fast though, pulled the handbrake the last second,
- 22:54Speaker 1: and the handbrake came off completely in my hand, and
- 22:57Speaker 1: I remember thinking, Uh. Then I was in my neighbor's
- 23:01Speaker 1: arms running for the car as I crashed into the bench,
- 23:04Speaker 1: busted my face and I wide open. At the hospital
- 23:07Speaker 1: they had to put me in a straight jacket in
- 23:09Speaker 1: order to stitch up my face, he's freaking out. I
- 23:12Speaker 1: guess so. My eye was stuck shut for a few weeks.
- 23:15Speaker 1: And my very next memory is the night my eye opened.
- 23:19Speaker 1: I was at my grandmother sisters house. He's either talking
- 23:24Speaker 1: about his great aunt or his grandmother was named. Says okay, okay.
- 23:29Speaker 1: When it opened, I was really excited. I showed my grandmother.
- 23:31Speaker 1: She told me to shut his tic Tac dough was on.
- 23:35Speaker 1: Remember that show. I love that show, l O L.
- 23:38Speaker 1: He says, these moments made me laugh so hard. Thank you,
- 23:41Speaker 1: Chuck and Josh. We're talking about the green machine and
- 23:44Speaker 1: letting me reminisce. It's from Jason in Baltimore, Maryland. Wait
- 23:48Speaker 1: to talk about the green machine, Chuck, it was the best.
- 23:51Speaker 1: It's good news. I bet you could find those on
- 23:53Speaker 1: the on the eBay. They'll cost you some money maybe.
- 23:57Speaker 1: So if you've got okay enough and do you have one? Oh,
- 24:01Speaker 1: I don't know, Jerry got my green machine? How about
- 24:03Speaker 1: if you've got a story about someone you're nemesis getting
- 24:06Speaker 1: something that you deserved. Good one, very good one. Okay,
- 24:10Speaker 1: what Chuck just said? Wrap it up, spanking on the bottom.
- 24:14Speaker 1: Sending in an email to Stuff podcast at how Stuff
- 24:17Speaker 1: works dot com for more on this and thousands of
- 24:24Speaker 1: other topics. Is it how stuff works dot com. To
- 24:27Speaker 1: learn more about the podcast, click on the podcast icon
- 24:30Speaker 1: in the upper right corner of our homepage. The How
- 24:32Speaker 1: Stuff Works iPhone app has arrived. Download it today on iTunes.
- 24:39Speaker 1: Brought to you by the reinvented two thousand twelve Camray.
- 24:42Speaker 1: It's ready. Are you