Latest / ACC Football Addiction (Atlantic Coast Conference) / Josh Pate Drops BOMBSHELL on Miami Hurricanes Football That SHOCKED Me!

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Josh Pate Drops BOMBSHELL on Miami Hurricanes Football That SHOCKED Me! · ACC Football Addiction (Atlantic Coast Conference)

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Welcome back to ACC Football Addiction, Canes fans. We are
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  Speaker 1: presented by PrizePix, where all new users get $ 150 instantly
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: when they set up and win a $ 5 lineup using
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: code HMA. The national conversation around Miami Hurricanes football has
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  Speaker 1: shifted in a pretty massive way, not only over the
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  Speaker 1: last year, but maybe even just in the last couple
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  Speaker 1: of days. When a prominent national analyst starts completely reevaluating
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  Speaker 1: the season's ceiling, you know that expectations are reaching a
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  Speaker 1: different level. There's a pretty sudden wave of belief that
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  Speaker 1: this roster is primed to chase the sport's biggest prize
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  Speaker 1: this season. But turning that outside hype into reality depends
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  Speaker 1: on how the program answers some massive questions up front.
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  Speaker 1: If the Hurricanes want to clear the historical hurdles that
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  Speaker 1: have stood in their way for decades, the foundation in
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  Speaker 1: the trenches has to hold up. The path to a
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  Speaker 1: championship for this team is already taking shape, and every
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  Speaker 1: single matchup is going to test that formula. There's plenty
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  Speaker 1: to unpack today, but the national perspective on how this
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  Speaker 1: team is evolving is where I want to start. Josh
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  Speaker 1: Pate has officially changed his national championship pick, and Miami
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  Speaker 1: is the team that benefits. I know what some commenters
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  Speaker 1: are going to say. What Josh Pate predicts right now
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  Speaker 1: does not matter. He picked Alabama last year. to win
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  Speaker 1: the national championship. And we saw how that turned out.
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  Speaker 1: But during a recent episode of Josh Pate's college football show,
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  Speaker 1: he threw out the bracket that he built back in
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  Speaker 1: early August and he started completely over. His original projection
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  Speaker 1: had Notre Dame taking down Texas for the title with
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  Speaker 1: Miami falling to the Longhorns in the quarterfinals as a
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  Speaker 1: three seed. His updated bracket now has Miami winning the
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  Speaker 1: entire thing over Oregon in Las Vegas. Pate made it
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  Speaker 1: very clear that this sudden shift was not a slight
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  Speaker 1: against any team that he dropped. He said, my opinion,
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  Speaker 1: not one bit has sullied on Notre Dame. He said,
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  Speaker 1: it's simply a case of my opinion on another team
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  Speaker 1: elevating the championship path that he mapped out for the
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  Speaker 1: hurricanes reads just like a revenge tour in the quarterfinals.
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  Speaker 1: He has fourth ranked Miami drawing the reigning national champion, Indiana.
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  Speaker 1: It's a direct rematch of the, national championship game, the
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  Speaker 1: loss that Miami suffered in January. Then they go on
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  Speaker 1: from there and the Canes knock off top seeded Notre
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  Speaker 1: Dame in the semifinals. If you zoom in on that
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  Speaker 1: for just a moment, it signifies something very specific. If
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  Speaker 1: Notre Dame holds the number one seed while Miami is
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  Speaker 1: slotted at number four, that means that he's got Miami
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  Speaker 1: losing in South Bend during the regular season and still
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  Speaker 1: climbing all the way to the top of his board
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  Speaker 1: at the end of the day. The ultimate title game
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  Speaker 1: matchup carries its own rich layer of subtext as well.
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  Speaker 1: Pace said the team Miami will face in the national
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  Speaker 1: championship game as fate would have it is the very
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  Speaker 1: team who they stole a head coach from. Imagine how
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  Speaker 1: fun social media would be for that week and a
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  Speaker 1: half period leading up to that game if it plays
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  Speaker 1: out the way that Josh says. He was pointing directly
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  Speaker 1: to Mario Cristobal's previous tenure at Oregon. He also pointed
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  Speaker 1: out a pretty fascinating dynamic shared by all four semifinal
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  Speaker 1: head coaches. He said someone is going to have to
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  Speaker 1: eat it because these are all coaches that the YouTube
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  Speaker 1: comments have reliably informed me cannot win a national championship.
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  Speaker 1: Pate explained that this flip was fueled by intel gathered
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  Speaker 1: out of Coral Gables over the last month, along with
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  Speaker 1: reports of an exceptionally strong fall camp. The instinct that
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  Speaker 1: he has here is worth noting, especially since he was
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  Speaker 1: one of the first national voices to defend Miami last
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  Speaker 1: season before the rest of the country caught on. Miami
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  Speaker 1: hasn't claimed a national title since 2001, and their newest
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  Speaker 1: campaign kicks off on Friday, September 4th at Stanford. Yet
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  Speaker 1: I think for a lot of people, there's a glaring
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  Speaker 1: question mark in that bracket, and it's sitting right in
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  Speaker 1: the middle of Miami's defense. Every single one of those
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  Speaker 1: projected victories in the playoff assumes the Canes will continue
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  Speaker 1: to dominate the trenches. The major concern is that the
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  Speaker 1: two premier players who built that dominant reputation just departed.
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  Speaker 1: Reuben Bain Jr. and Akeem Mesidor each turned Miami's edge
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  Speaker 1: rush into first-round NFL draft talent, taking immense production with them.
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  Speaker 1: That leaves a very simple, pressing question. Who actually steps
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  Speaker 1: up to replace them? Interestingly enough, the answer circulating in
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  Speaker 1: draft circles is not coming from the edge position at all.
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  Speaker 1: When ESPN draft analyst Jordan Reed released his way-too-early 2027
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  Speaker 1: mock draft Miami was heavily featured. He projected defensive tackle
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  Speaker 1: Justin Scott going 29th overall to the Seattle Seahawks. Just
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  Speaker 1: one pick later, at No. 30, he had Ahmad Moten Sr.
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  Speaker 1: to the Baltimore Ravens. It gives Miami back-to-back first-round defensive linemen,
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  Speaker 1: only this time coming from the interior instead of the edge.
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  Speaker 1: A development like that would answer the biggest question hovering
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  Speaker 1: over defensive coordinator Corey Heatherman's unit this fall. Can Miami
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  Speaker 1: truly replace what it lost up front without sacrificing the
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  Speaker 1: relentless identity that made this defensive line so feared? All
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  Speaker 1: of this is without even mentioning Damon Wilson or Marquise Lightfoot,
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  Speaker 1: but let's stay on the tackles for just a moment.
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  Speaker 1: The underlying analytics behind these projections are backed up by
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  Speaker 1: hard data and not just empty hype. PFF noted that
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  Speaker 1: Moten's strong impact in the pass rush last season was evident.
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  Speaker 1: For an interior defensive tackle, his pressure rate is elite,
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  Speaker 1: and he paired it with four and a half sacks
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  Speaker 1: on top of that. Scott generated a strong PFF run
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  Speaker 1: defense grade to anchor the line. That stout interior presence
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  Speaker 1: helped Miami lead the entire ACC in fewest rushing yards
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  Speaker 1: allowed per game. Moten is a 6'3, 300-pound Fort Lauderdale
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  Speaker 1: native who built enough late-season momentum to draw legitimate 2026
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  Speaker 1: draft interest before selecting to return. Standing at 6'4, and
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  Speaker 1: weighing 310 pounds, Scott is a former five-star recruit from
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  Speaker 1: Chicago who presents an exceptionally high ceiling. His first-step explosiveness
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  Speaker 1: is undeniably elite, even if his complete skill set hasn't
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  Speaker 1: even fully come together yet. Other national outlets are projecting
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  Speaker 1: these interior linemen even higher. Mock drafts have placed both
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  Speaker 1: Scott and Modin as high-end first-round prospects. National projections have
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  Speaker 1: featured multiple Hurricanes in early mock drafts as well. What
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  Speaker 1: makes this dynamic so fascinating to me is where the
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  Speaker 1: offseason spotlight has traditionally focused. Miami's edge group usually captures
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  Speaker 1: the headlines, spotlighting Missouri transfer players. Damon Wilson, Armando Blunt,
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  Speaker 1: and Marquise Lightfoot, who I mentioned a moment ago. Yet
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  Speaker 1: the early mock draft suggests that the true game changers
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  Speaker 1: might be the big men lined up right between them.
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  Speaker 1: For a passionate fan base that has just watched Miami
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  Speaker 1: reclaim the D-line U moniker, the takeaway is crystal clear.
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  Speaker 1: The talent pipeline did not just dry up. We just
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  Speaker 1: may have shifted it inside a little bit when we're
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  Speaker 1: talking about the Hurricanes. I was on State of State,
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  Speaker 1: which I'll tell you about in just a moment, with
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: D-Money and Allie Peek from A Peek Inside Gators football,
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  Speaker 1: and I fumbled all over this quote, but I believe
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  Speaker 1: it was Mark Twain that said, the reports of my
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  Speaker 1: demise are greatly exaggerated. And I think for college football,
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  Speaker 1: you're about to find out the reports of Miami's defensive
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  Speaker 1: line's demise with two guys going to the first round
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  Speaker 1: last year are greatly exaggerated. As an FSU fan or
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  Speaker 1: a fan of any team on this schedule, don't take
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  Speaker 1: it lightly. Now, of course, none of these draft positions
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  Speaker 1: will be settled in April. That will be determined entirely
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  Speaker 1: by what Miami accomplishes between September and December, which brings
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  Speaker 1: the regular season schedule front and center. A pair of
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  Speaker 1: first-round interior linemen will not matter if the Canes cannot
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  Speaker 1: survive a slate filled with Thursday and Friday games before
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  Speaker 1: October and November road trips. Paige's championship path relies on
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  Speaker 1: Miami earning that No. 4 seed, and that kind of
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  Speaker 1: playoff position is earned strictly through results, not through preseason reputations.
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  Speaker 1: There's also a pretty big historical hurdle still missing from
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  Speaker 1: this entire picture. Miami has never, captured an ACC championship,
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  Speaker 1: remaining empty-handed since joining the conference back in the early 2000s.
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  Speaker 1: That makes it essential to examine what my game-by-game projections
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  Speaker 1: actually look like for the Miami Hurricanes this season. Before
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: I do that, I do want to mention that State
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: of State show that I told you about just a
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: moment ago. We have seen incredible growth, up over 1,400 subscribers,
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: and we are just getting started. We did a live
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: show this week, on Tuesday at 11 a.m. We'll do
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: our next one on Tuesday at 11 a.m. I know
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: you guys will be tuned in if Florida State drops
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: their game to New Mexico State, which I don't think
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: they do, but make sure you are subscribed over there.
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: We had over 250 people in the live. It was
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: a great time. There's a ton of trash talk going
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: on in the comments. I'm going to link a video
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: after this one. Go subscribe to State of the State.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: I'm not selling you anything else. I'm not asking you
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: to buy anything. go subscribe, show some support over there.
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: If you enjoy the content that I'm doing over here,
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: you'll like it even better here in alley and D
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: money rag tag up on me. It is a really
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: good time though. I don't know how fun it'll be
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: in October for me, but it's fun right now. When
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: I look at Miami's 2026 slate, I went through the
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: Miami schedule prediction with D money and alley this week,
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: but I'll tell you, I think it is a near
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: flawless regular season record. I think it does feature one blemish.
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: I'll talk about it in just a moment, but I'll
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  Speaker 1: kind of not bury the lead here. I think Miami
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  Speaker 1: does end up hoisting the trophy that this program has
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  Speaker 1: never lifted. I think they go to Charlotte and I
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  Speaker 1: think they win the ACC championship. My prediction for the
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  Speaker 1: year is that they'll do that against SMU, a team
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: they don't play during the regular season this year. When
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: you look at the opening five weeks of the schedule,
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: I think they're unusual for a Mario Cristobal squad. The
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  Speaker 1: journey begins with a Friday night battle at Stanford on
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  Speaker 1: September 4th. It's Miami's first true road opener outside of
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  Speaker 1: the state of Florida since they went to Louisville back
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  Speaker 1: in 2014. Now, I know they've played some neutral sites.
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  Speaker 1: They played in the swamp. But they haven't left the
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  Speaker 1: state of Florida for a true road game to open
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  Speaker 1: the season in over a decade. It makes me a
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: little frustrated as a Florida State fan because it also
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: reminds me that we used to play you guys all
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  Speaker 1: the time on Labor Day. And though that was a
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  Speaker 1: tough way to open the season for both teams, I
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: miss that. I miss big rivalry kickoffs to start things off.
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  Speaker 1: As an FSU fan, man, you got Miami on Labor
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  Speaker 1: Day and you got Florida on the last Saturday of
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  Speaker 1: the year, right? Holiday weekend of Thanksgiving. That is how
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  Speaker 1: college football should be played. And I don't know what
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: kind of petition I got to start, but if we
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: could get that game back on Labor Day, I'd be
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: all in favor of it. Let me know your thoughts
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: on that down in the comments. You guys probably love
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  Speaker 1: it right now with where we're at as a program.
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: After that comes a pretty quick turnaround on a Thursday
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  Speaker 1: night home opener against Florida A & M. From there,
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  Speaker 1: the Canes head back on the road for a Friday
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  Speaker 1: night matchup, this time at Wake Forest. After going to Wake,
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  Speaker 1: you come back home to play against Central Michigan. Then
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  Speaker 1: that road stretch that we talked about, home away, home away,
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  Speaker 1: home away, finishes up with a game against Clemson in
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  Speaker 1: South Carolina. I think that's the first real test. I
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  Speaker 1: think you go into that game 4-0, not really having
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  Speaker 1: to have sweat very much. And I think Clemson has
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  Speaker 1: a chance to make Miami sweat just a tad. I
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  Speaker 1: don't think the Canes are going to lose that game,
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  Speaker 1: but I will tell you, if you leave it a
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  Speaker 1: fourth quarter game in death Valley, weird things can happen,
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: especially if that ends up being at night, we'll see
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  Speaker 1: a lot more and find out a lot more about
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  Speaker 1: what Clemson is when they play LSU next week. And
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  Speaker 1: I think the Tigers from Baton Rouge win that game.
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  Speaker 1: And I've got the Canes winning this comfortably multiple scores,
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: but I'm telling you, don't let it be a fourth
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  Speaker 1: quarter game in death Valley at night. All I'm saying.
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: Context provides pretty critical insight into each of those early matchups.
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  Speaker 1: Miami dominated Stanford 42-7 last season. Wake Forest enters the
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  Speaker 1: year riding momentum of its first nine-win campaign since 2021.
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  Speaker 1: Clemson is looking for a rebound from a disappointing 7-6 season,
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  Speaker 1: which was their lowest win total since 2010. I think
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  Speaker 1: all of those present interesting matchups, but I like the
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  Speaker 1: Canes in all of them. 5-0. The middle stretch of
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  Speaker 1: this schedule is where the ACC championship race will truly
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  Speaker 1: be decided. Coming off of a bye week, you host
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: Florida State, and the Seminoles had a nice comeback last year,
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  Speaker 1: but if we can be honest with ourselves, the game
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: was largely over and non-competitive for 75% of it. I
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  Speaker 1: think that the Canes win that one, 6-0. Pittsburgh arrives
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  Speaker 1: next on October 24th. Last season's blowout will still be
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  Speaker 1: fresh in their minds. I don't think it's enough. I
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  Speaker 1: think Miami rolls there and wins by multiple scores. You
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: go to Chapel Hill after that on Halloween. The only
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  Speaker 1: thing spooky there is who the head coach is going
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  Speaker 1: to be. I think Belichick will be out by the
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  Speaker 1: time it's played. I don't have a lot of confidence
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  Speaker 1: in North Carolina, though I would like to see them
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  Speaker 1: go and do something crazy and win in Dublin this weekend.
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  Speaker 1: And then all roads lead directly into South Bend, Indiana.
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  Speaker 1: The pivotal contest that I think shapes the entire season.
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  Speaker 1: I am planning on being there. I am not planning
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  Speaker 1: on enjoying the cold weather, but I do think it'll
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  Speaker 1: be a lot of fun, and I hope a lot
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  Speaker 1: of you are traveling to that as well. Miami's victory
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  Speaker 1: over Notre Dame in the 2025 season opener was really
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  Speaker 1: the defining result that eventually pushed the Canes into the
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: playoff over the Fighting Irish. This rematch on NBC presents
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: the true measuring stick on the entire schedule. This is,
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: don't get mad at me, where I think Miami does
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  Speaker 1: take a loss. Now I'll tell you on a neutral field,
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  Speaker 1: I'll hedge a lot on this because I have very
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: low confidence in either team to pull it out on
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  Speaker 1: a neutral field. I like the canes. I think they're
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  Speaker 1: more talented. I like Mensah a little bit more than
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: I like CJ car. I like the running backs and
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: wide receivers at Miami a little bit more than I
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: like Notre Dame's. I like certain parts of Notre Dame's
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  Speaker 1: defense better, but I think I like the defensive line better.
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: Until I see Miami's offensive line, I'd probably give a
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: slight edge to Notre Dame's offensive line in this moment.
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: But that's just a very, very slight edge. I think
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  Speaker 1: Crystal Ball's and Mirabelle's coaching of the offensive line probably
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  Speaker 1: negates that by the time you get there. But this
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: game's about matchups. It's not who's better between Carr and Mensah.
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  Speaker 1: It's who's better between Carr versus the secondary he'll play
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  Speaker 1: and Mensah and the secondary he'll play. It's not whose
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  Speaker 1: offensive line is better. It's who's better against the defensive
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: line that's lining up against them. It's not who's better
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: wide receivers. It's who's better beating guys off the line
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  Speaker 1: of scrimmage. And so those are the questions and those
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: are the matchups that you have to look at. And
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: it's way too early in August for me to think
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: about a game in November and really give it a
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: full breakdown. I guess I'm riding with the home team here.
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: I guess I'm riding with the idea that I'm probably
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: not picking anybody in the country to go 12 and 0.
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: This is the most likely spot for a loss. On
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  Speaker 1: a neutral field, I'd pick the Canes. Certainly down in
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: hard rock, I'd pick the Canes. I'll give Notre Dame
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  Speaker 1: a one-point win here in a top-three matchup. The Canes
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: close out November at home with a three-game stretch against Duke,
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  Speaker 1: Virginia Tech, and Boston College. That Duke matchup will be
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: extra spicy because of the way that the Mensa situation
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: played out, him transferring from Durham to Coral Gables specifically
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: to play for a national title. Duke, meanwhile, enters as
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: the defending ACC champion. They've won their first outright conference
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: title since 1962. They shared one with Virginia back in 1989,
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: but last season was the first time in over six
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: decades that they didn't have to split it with somebody.
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: The conference has apparently, we haven't seen it yet, but
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: overhauled its tiebreaker rules after a 7-5 Duke squad escaped
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: a chaotic five-way tie last season. That Duke game may
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: be spicy, and Virginia Tech with James Franklin is a
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: test because I want to see what he looks like.
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: And then the BC game at the end of the year,
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  Speaker 1: I think you go 3-0 there. That's an 11-1 record.
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: Heading to Charlotte, where I also think you win. Those
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: tiebreaker rules remain pretty vital, especially with five league opponents
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: playing only eight conference games this season. But I'll tell
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: you this, an 11-1 regular season record combined with an
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: ACC championship in Charlotte would deliver three massive milestones all
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: at once. It would be Miami's first ACC title in
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: school history. It would lock in a guaranteed playoff bid,
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: and it would grant them a top four seed complete
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: with a first round buy. That opening round buy is
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: the exact piece the Canes lacked during their previous run
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: to the title game. Last year's Miami squad was forced
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: to battle through an extra playoff game and still managed
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: to reach the national championship, eliminating a taxing round, especially
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: on the road. And the championship math starts to shift
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: in Miami's favor, in my opinion. And that's why a
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: projected regular season loss on November 7th to Notre Dame
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  Speaker 1: is annoying. I know you guys don't want to hear it,
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: but it doesn't at all sink your title hopes. That
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: single setback in South Bend still leaves the door wide
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  Speaker 1: open provided that that Miami takes care of business everywhere else.
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: The entire championship chain is now set. Pate's bold bracket
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: depends entirely on the defensive line and the defensive line
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: has to navigate this schedule. And that schedule begins with
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: one specific Friday night at Stanford on September 4th. Everyone's
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: projections and predictions on this team are all built around
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: a season that unfortunately hasn't been played yet. And, Our
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: first real data point arrives before anyone can argue about
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: much else. We are days away from kickoff. Make sure
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: that you are subscribed, not only here, but to the
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: State of State show that I told you about. You
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: can click the video on the screen right now to
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: watch an episode of that State of State show if
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: you haven't seen it already. We appreciate prize picks. We're
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: all new users who win a $ 5 lineup as their
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: first lineup using code HMA, get 150 in lineups instantly.
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: We appreciate prize picks for their support. Season's almost here.
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: Talk to you guys soon on ACC Football Addiction.