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Lets Talk Replant · Professional Ag Marketing Podcast

• 0:01
  SPEAKER_01: Welcome to the Professional Ag Marketing Podcast.
• 0:04
  SPEAKER_01: If you want a deep dive into the ag markets and risk management strategies, your search is over.
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_01: Come here after every Friday to get your weekly commodity recap.
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_01: Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_01: This is your host, Mike Minor.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_01: Let's get started.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_01: Today is June 3rd.
• 0:25
  SPEAKER_01: I've got Lucas Peters here.
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_01: We're going to do a little uh let's talk replant and some other things.
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_01: How's that sound today?
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, it sounds wonderful, Mike.
• 0:33
  SPEAKER_01: Awesome.
• 0:34
  SPEAKER_01: Never the conversation a guy wants to have, but it sounds like we're gonna need to have it.
• 0:38
  SPEAKER_01: Too many people around the area talking about it, doing it.
• 0:42
  SPEAKER_01: Uh it just deserves a little bit of a chat today, so we'll try to make it somewhat quick.
• 0:46
  SPEAKER_01: But to start off here, um, on a few commodity updates, the grains got hit pretty hard this week.
• 0:53
  SPEAKER_01: Corn took a risk-off mode, closed 50 cents lower on the July contract week over week, December down 40 cents on the week over week.
• 1:01
  SPEAKER_01: The soybeans we had November actually uh gain about 16 cents week over week here, so not too bad.
• 1:08
  SPEAKER_01: But the um the big story here looking forward is uh uh the wheat market, buck 17 lower on the Chicago wheat here.
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_01: Uh really rough week on that.
• 1:18
  SPEAKER_01: So as we talk about risk off and some of the things that happened this week, we continue to talk about the uh Russia-Ukraine situation.
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_01: So, in spite of Russia being willing to allow grain exports out of Ukraine, Russia continues to press its attack on towns and cities in eastern Ukraine.
• 1:39
  SPEAKER_01: So still have some threat there, but that did help some some commodities, uh, specifically the grains sell off this week.
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_01: Other than that, we did see a little bit of a better 30-day forecast here, uh, planning progress, only 1% behind normal Lucas.
• 1:55
  SPEAKER_01: I know it happened in the last two weeks of the month of May, so not as ideal as last two of April or the beginning of May, but hey, I guess they're caught up in the funds.
• 2:05
  SPEAKER_01: I I would say the traders just looked at it like, okay, we're caught up and uh let's take some risk off the plate.
• 2:11
  SPEAKER_01: And if a yield is a problem, we'll face it later, anyways.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_01: Other bearish influence on the corn market here, Brazil.
• 2:17
  SPEAKER_01: Uh price of corn over the last month here, lowest it's been since uh since over a month as well.
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_01: So uh harvest is underway in central Brazil, had some rains in southern Brazil, but they're looking at the record crop here for the for the corn production, uh, looking at about 4.5 billion bushels or about 116 million mektra tons.
• 2:39
  SPEAKER_01: That'd be how they take care of it.
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_01: But um, yeah, uh when we look at those anyways, soybeans a little bit opposite direction this week, uh, had some friendliness as uh old crop supplies still remain pretty tight when we look at the situation between great exports here real recently and uh old soybean oil demand.
• 2:59
  SPEAKER_01: But um those are a little bit more mute points right now at the moment here as we wrap up the end of the week here.
• 3:05
  SPEAKER_01: Kind of got soybeans at the top end of the range, held some support and corn trying to fight back up over seven bucks on the December month here as guys try to uh maybe think about, you know, after it scared us a little bit towards the beginning of the week, well, maybe it is that time of the year to try to take some risk off the table.
• 3:22
  SPEAKER_01: Uh basis has improved as well, something to definitely keep an eye on if you have any old crop left.
• 3:28
  SPEAKER_01: Lucas, what do you got for us this week?
• 3:30
  SPEAKER_01: What do you see uh with replant situations locally?
• 3:33
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, just uh just like it was a rough week, especially in the wheat market, uh it was a really a rough week to uh for it to be a little soybean plant in uh southern uh Minnesota and parts of South Dakota uh after the storms last weekend, the you know, May 29th, May 30th, Memorial Day weekend had several storms roll through.
• 3:53
  SPEAKER_00: Um, and some of those produced some pretty hefty hail.
• 3:57
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, you know, you get I think it was the 29th storm that south of Sioux Falls, west of Sioux Falls, uh across the Minnesota and Iowa border.
• 4:06
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, you know, there was a lot of two, two and a half inch hail that did some damage, and then uh the storm then the next night kind of hit the same area but expanded a little bit further north.
• 4:16
  SPEAKER_00: And so we got had some guys with some hail damage.
• 4:19
  SPEAKER_00: We all knew it hailed, um, and maybe didn't uh didn't rush out and look right away at what was going on, which is fine.
• 4:27
  SPEAKER_00: Um, and then all of a sudden we started assessing these stands and they were pretty low, and we had some more cutoffs.
• 4:33
  SPEAKER_00: So, you know, just that replant uh kind of the reason why we went to come in and talk today was that whole replant decision.
• 4:40
  SPEAKER_00: And and you know, this year, so let's first look at corn.
• 4:44
  SPEAKER_00: You know, not many guys are replanting corn, right?
• 4:46
  SPEAKER_00: Because the hail came through, you know, the corn was planted a little later than normal around here, but the cold weather has caught uh slowed some growth.
• 4:54
  SPEAKER_00: So, you know, maybe we're five leaves, maybe we're six leaves on some of the really early planted stuff.
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, but the growing point is still well below ground or at the ground surface.
• 5:04
  SPEAKER_00: So you strip up some leaves, you even break a few plants off, we're gonna start growing again.
• 5:09
  SPEAKER_00: It's not going to hurt our corn stands.
• 5:12
  SPEAKER_01: When does that become a problem?
• 5:13
  SPEAKER_01: When does that growing point become higher?
• 5:16
  SPEAKER_00: Yep.
• 5:16
  SPEAKER_00: So usually around V6 is when the the growing point is is coming above the ground.
• 5:21
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, so you'd have to have about eight leaves emerged before you'd see uh see a V6 stage.
• 5:27
  SPEAKER_00: So so all the corn that I've seen is safe, right?
• 5:31
  SPEAKER_00: And and plus the the other benefit, we stripped up some leaves, we damaged some plants, but then the cool weather this week kind of slowed that corn growth down, which is also good uh to prevent some of that buggy whipping and fast uh uh growth mode, uh, where sometimes you'll see that corn that gets damaged, and then the leaves stay wrapped up because it's growing so fast and it kind of looks ugly and can kind of do some damage.
• 5:53
  SPEAKER_00: So we avoided all that.
• 5:54
  SPEAKER_00: So corn, we're good.
• 5:55
  SPEAKER_00: Soybeans is what uh where we're seeing the most damage and and seeing a lot of guys replant uh out of our office.
• 6:02
  SPEAKER_00: And and the the replay is soybeans are pretty vulnerable at this stage, uh, because we're kind of in this for most fields, at this level of where our our our hypercautyl is right at the surface.
• 6:18
  SPEAKER_00: Uh maybe we got some cotyledons up, maybe we had uh a one trifoliate out in some of the the earliest planted ones.
• 6:26
  SPEAKER_00: Um and at that stage, anytime you cut a soybean plant off below the cotyledons, well, that plant is dead.
• 6:35
  SPEAKER_00: Uh there's no green tissue, that means it's not gonna grow.
• 6:39
  SPEAKER_00: Um got it.
• 6:40
  SPEAKER_00: And so uh the little bit of hail combined with the wind coming in sideways, we cut off some plants.
• 6:46
  SPEAKER_00: Now we got uh some areas where plants are dead, it's early enough that we want to get after these replants, and that's what a lot of guys are doing.
• 6:53
  SPEAKER_00: Um, but it's important that we we really need to evaluate these stands because if you do have a cotyledon still attached, if there's still some leaf tissue, even though it might be stripped up due to the hail, uh that plant's gonna be okay.
• 7:05
  SPEAKER_00: Like it's not gonna look great for the next week, but you're gonna get a new leaf out, and in two weeks you're not even gonna notice the hail damage.
• 7:13
  SPEAKER_00: So uh I think what what made the problem worse for a lot of these areas is yes, there was some hail damage, but also there was some crusting uh because the soils were cool and a little damp when we planted it, and there was some frost damage.
• 7:28
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, you know, we got down into the 30s here uh what a couple weeks ago um and and froze off some of the beans on the edges.
• 7:37
  SPEAKER_00: Plus, we're all planting a little bit lower populations now as well, because we've determined like there's no need to plant 180,000 all the time.
• 7:46
  SPEAKER_00: Uh we can plant 120 and get by with good yields.
• 7:49
  SPEAKER_00: Well, when you take a bunch of little paper cuts, all of a sudden uh they all hit and we started bleeding pretty bad, and now, well, I guess we got to go replant.
• 7:58
  SPEAKER_00: So um, so that's kind of what I I think uh many guys are seeing is just a bunch of little things, and this hail kind of pushed it over the edge where we had stands low enough that we needed to replant uh these beans.
• 8:11
  SPEAKER_00: Um, so if if you haven't turned in and notice a loss, if you haven't talked to your agent and you still think you got a thin stand, please do that.
• 8:18
  SPEAKER_00: That should be your first step.
• 8:20
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, if you have a hail policy, definitely.
• 8:23
  SPEAKER_00: Even if you don't have a hail policy and and have some some hail damage to the point where you got to replant, remember your multi-parel policy has replant coverage in it.
• 8:34
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, so you can potentially get a payment uh three bushels of beans times the price, right?
• 8:39
  SPEAKER_00: About 43 bucks an acre, uh, if uh it gets bad enough where you do have to replant.
• 8:44
  SPEAKER_00: So uh that's kind of the story, Mike.
• 8:46
  SPEAKER_00: Of uh we saw some damage, we got some guys replanting.
• 8:49
  SPEAKER_00: If you haven't been out in your fields and taking a look, taking some stand counts, go do it.
• 8:54
  SPEAKER_00: If uh they're pretty thin, contact your crop insurance agent and turn in the notice of loss.
• 8:59
  SPEAKER_00: Uh and if you have any questions or or want to get a hail policy for this year, uh by all means reach out to myself here at the Pro Ag Office and we'll hook you up with one.
• 9:09
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you for joining us today, Lucas.
• 9:12
  SPEAKER_01: Thank you to all our listeners.
• 9:14
  SPEAKER_01: Please reach out to us from our website at professional eggmarketing.com or check out our newly added Holographic Marketing Hogan that's released every Thursday.