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Transcript

Felix Prehn - A Warning to All Investors [Watch Before Tomorrow] + Stock Market News 20 March 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: And welcome to this pre-market live stream.
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: We're joined by Winston, who looks a little deflated because he thought his portfolio was all up and it was going to go straight up like a rocket ship.
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: But this morning, I'm afraid to tell you, the market is dipping once again, and I want you to understand what that means.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: Does that still mean we get the short squeeze?
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: Does it mean the opposite?
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: So I want to walk you through the following here, and let me share my screen with you so you can see what we've got going on here.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: I've got in store for you here today, so to speak.
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: We're up now we're down.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: Why Wall Street has actually already explained the morning dip to their loyal fund managers, and I want to share that with you because I think you deserve to get the same information that the big boys get on Wall Street.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: And I'll also show you why investors have never been as lucky as they are right now.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: This is some good news.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: We want to touch upon the NVIDIA effect, because that's important, and show you, ultimately, why Wall Street is kind of blind, maybe deaf and dumb at the same too, and therefore, what the massive opportunities that we got ahead ourselves, what the computers will do.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's computers.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: Soon we'll be like what did the robots do today?
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: They'll be like news 19,000 robots, you know, met today somewhere and demonstrated for more power or something.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: I'll give you the one indicator that I'm watching to decide when I'm buying individual stocks.
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: At the moment I'm buying the index and I've told you but I'm when I'm going to start buying individual stocks again.
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: I'll tell you when, and then we're going to end up with a big, beautiful, shiny bouncy q a here.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: Does that sound like a plan to you?
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: That sounds like a plan to you, right, uh right, money in the chat.
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: Let's be, let's be greedy here today, like good old 80s bankers.
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: And uh, winston looks a little glum back there because he had, um, he was washed today, bathed, I should say he's not a big fan of water if it's for the purpose of watering.
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: Anyway, he managed to roll in some um pig shit straight afterwards, and we're going hiking tomorrow.
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: I mean, I'm not actually going to find some other smelly things to roll in, so I think he'll be fine.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: So, good morning.
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: Um mark wrote honey, no money there.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: Money, money, money, money.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: Brent and Nicholas and Shane and Scott and Tom and Jip and Monica and Paul and Colin and Matt and Andre, and honey is also good.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: Yes, honey is also fine if that's what you're after.
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: So shall we get cracking?
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: I think we should probably get cracking.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: God, some of the people are writing in German the horror.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: So let's have a look at this.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: What the heck just happened.
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: And if you prefer a prettier visual, let me show you this is the pre-market right.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: You need to put on your tinted glasses here today.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: So what the heck happened there?
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: Well, things went really well yesterday, right, and I'm not going to walk you through like an hour of Jerome Powell, because I know you actually want to enjoy your life, but you know we had a big, beautiful rally after Jerome said pretty much all the same things, and I'll tell you a couple of the key points in just a second here, because it's important to understand those.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: And then the market closed.
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: So the market closed here, and then, usually overnight, everyone sort of goes to sleep.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: You know, a little bit like that.
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: And then somebody, somebody woke up at 4 am this morning.
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: I'm not implying that they were on some sort of substance that make them wake up early, but you know just a thought that occurred to me 4am, somebody goes oh my god, I don't think it makes any sense, let's sell.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: And they did that pretty harshly and all the gains were wiped out and we're back to exactly where we started, pre-jerome Powell telling us everything will be fine, children.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: So what happened here?
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: First of all, this wasn't a surprise, because I could tell you that by the end of yesterday.
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: But this might have had something to do with it, and I tweet silly things sometimes.
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: So if you guys are on X, find me over there.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: Felix Breen, there are a lot of fake accounts.
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: Look for the one with the blue tick, otherwise you are going to get sold I don't know puppies and you have to pay for them in Bitcoin or some sort of scheme and scam like that.
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: But yeah, it would be a shame if somebody tweeted something about tariffs.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: Right, that's kind of the thought there, and of course, the almighty Trump did.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: But I said to you just, I didn't think it was a surprise.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: How do I know that?
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: Well, I have access to dark pool threads.
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: Do you know that the vast majority of stocks bought and sold, and options bought and sold do not happen on the stock exchange?
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: So what you're seeing there in that squiggly line and those little price points, minute by minute, that you're looking at doesn't tell you what the big boys do.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: Winston is one of those.
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: Winston has his own dark pool.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: He's very well connected that dog back there.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: We have access to the data.
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: We pay another leg for it, so you don't have to.
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: You can get access to that, by the way, if you want to, if you go to FelixFrenzel trade vision, it's the software that we built.
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: And at the end of yesterday, which is 16 hours ago right now, because the market's about to open and what am I looking at?
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: I'm looking at large trades here.
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: Right, there's some pretty large trades, right, these are pretty big positions.
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: These are all options positions, so they're massive.
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: They're massive because they control like a hundred shares each for just one contract.
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: So they're really, really huge.
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: And look, they're all bearish.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: Right, they're all bearish, and this is just the S&P.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: But then if you look at, if you go down a little bit, okay, it becomes SPY, and there are also individual positions.
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: We can have a look at that later if you want.
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: So pretty bloody bearish.
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: Now back to our little story here.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: Jp Morgan warned early this morning.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: They get up early.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: They said yesterday's rally may not be indicative of near-term direction, as the Fed's forecast shifted to support the stagflation narrative and power reintroduced transitory inflation.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: So what's stagflation narrative?
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: And Powell reintroduced transitory inflation.
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: So what's stagflation?
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: Stagflation is the first part.
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: Is you go hunting for a stag?
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: I'm kidding.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: Stagnation, right?
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: So stagnation of the economy, so kind of like 0% growth, basically.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: And then the second part is inflation.
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: And Powell did say tariffs do not cause long-term inflation, that inflation is transitory.
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: This, of course, is the same Muppet who printed $4 trillion of money and then told us that that inflation would also be transitory.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: Well, in the long term, you are transitory, I'm transitory.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: Well, in the long term, you are transitory, I'm transitory.
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: Even winston is, sadly, transitory, although I'm not sure he's uh, he's really fully aware of that yet.
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: Uh, so, which is a good thing, he's a happy chap.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: So what does it mean?
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: Well, they're basically saying well, we might get a worsening economy, right, if they keep slashing government expenditure, putting up the tariffs and if they don't cut taxes until later, which is a little bit the playbook right now.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: And then we're going to get inflation from the tariffs.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: For the short term they won't matter that much, but in the short term they'll get them.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: So we might actually slide into stagflation.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: Maybe that's why somebody hit the sell button at 4am this morning.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: Maybe somebody woke up and had that brilliant idea.
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: Paul Jay audio is still crackling from time to time.
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: I have a sound engineer coming on Monday.
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: We will apparently put up all sorts of machines and fix this problem once and for all.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: I think it's interference.
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: That's what I think it is.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: Honestly, I think it's just too many wires and Wi-Fi and things in here.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: But if it crackled slightly for you, I apologize.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: I shall do my best to uncrackle myself, much like we're trying to uncrackle the market.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: What's the gift to you here?
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: I said to you you're very lucky, you're insanely lucky.
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: You're sitting at a moment down here where what is this?
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: This is maximum bearishness.
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: The world's about to end.
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: This up here is maximum bullishness, and we're right here, down here.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: The last time we were down here was, okay, 2022.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: Yeah, before that it was 2008, global financial crisis.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: So maybe people got a bit emotional of late.
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: I think that seems to be possible.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: People seem to disagree with each other on politics and then just set things on fire.
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: That seems to be the way to handle it.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: I disagree with you.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: I'm going to burn down every car in the country, like, okay, all right, taking your meds lately, apparently not.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: So why is that a glorious opportunity?
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: Because have you looked back at a stock chart?
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: Do you think in hindsight, it would have been nice to buy the market bottom in 2009 or in 2022?
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: It would have been right.
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: You would have made a lot of money.
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: So why does it not feel good to press the buy button?
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: Because we're not programmed that way.
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: We really are not programmed that way, and I will do my utmost to reprogram you, because I was literally having a conversation this morning and saying I'm so happy the market's down.
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: I really do mean that because I can buy and I have been buying not inconsequential amounts at like a 9% discount to what I would have bought anyway.
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: So I'm like this is freaking brilliant.
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: I love it.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: So I want to get you to that place where you understand these patterns and you see patterns rather than the red in your portfolio and the fear, because you have a bit of a longer vision.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: And if you want to get that reprogramming from Winston and I, then go and watch our reprogramming masterclass, because we teach you there the rules that will tell you what to do in these moments and the rules that we came up with, the rules that I learned from my mentors, who learned it from their mentors, who learned it from their mentors, and it goes back to you know, jesus probably Was Jesus a stock trader.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, that's how we learn.
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: We learn from the people who've done this before professionally and been taught by people.
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: So if you want to get access to that links down below phoenixfriendsorg Get free and you too, can wake up and go.
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: Things just happened.
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: The market's down 9% Amazing right.