Latest / CRYPTO 101 / Crypto Rundown: Better Trade Bitcoin or Ethereum as Market Eyes Rate Decision

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Crypto Rundown: Better Trade Bitcoin or Ethereum as Market Eyes Rate Decision · CRYPTO 101

0:08
[SPEAKER_02]: All right, everybody, welcome back to the crypto run down.
0:10
[SPEAKER_02]: A very special run down.
0:11
[SPEAKER_02]: It's a two for Tuesday.
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[SPEAKER_02]: We've got Brendan, we've got Hunter and where is crypto going next?
0:17
[SPEAKER_02]: Crypto is rallying into one of the biggest market moving weeks of the year.
0:20
[SPEAKER_02]: We've got the Clarity Act vote.
0:21
[SPEAKER_02]: The FOMC meeting on Wednesday and a market that refuses to roll over.
0:26
[SPEAKER_02]: So today we're breaking down the technical analysis to see whether these events could fuel the next breakout or trigger a pullback that everybody would have their eye on.
0:34
[SPEAKER_02]: It's been a fascinating couple of weeks, guys.
0:37
[SPEAKER_02]: Brendan, you put this in the crypto ETFs, have attracted 1.3 billion in inflows last week.
0:43
[SPEAKER_02]: That makes it six consecutive weeks of a row.
0:47
[SPEAKER_02]: We got to check out the charts.
0:48
[SPEAKER_02]: We haven't done this in a couple of weeks here on the run-down, so again, if you're listening on audio and you want to check out the YouTube charts, make sure that you go and click the YouTube links.
0:57
[SPEAKER_02]: So you can see Hunter and Brendan break this down and one note.
1:02
[SPEAKER_02]: that we want to talk about before we dive into the charts is with all this bullish momentum these six consecutive weeks of inflows and positive price action it is the perfect time to review your crypto portfolio and our fearless leader Bryce is going to be giving a presentation this Thursday on what that would look like so if you're interested in knowing what your portfolio should be looking like
1:23
[SPEAKER_02]: for this next bull run.
1:24
[SPEAKER_02]: We have a link below.
1:25
[SPEAKER_02]: It's completely free presentation that Bryce has been building.
1:27
[SPEAKER_02]: It's going to be live with Bryce this Thursday.
1:29
[SPEAKER_02]: Check the link below, sign up.
1:31
[SPEAKER_02]: It's completely free as we hand it off to Hunter to go into the charts.
1:36
[SPEAKER_02]: Hunter, welcome back to the rundown.
1:38
[SPEAKER_01]: Hey, I am excited to be here.
1:40
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a great Tuesday.
1:41
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a busy week.
1:42
[SPEAKER_01]: One of the busiest days is today.
1:44
[SPEAKER_01]: I'll probably have the whole year if not tomorrow as well.
1:47
[SPEAKER_01]: So I'm excited to talk about that.
1:49
[SPEAKER_01]: But more importantly, you know, there's news out there.
1:53
[SPEAKER_01]: But nothing shows us where we're going to like the charts do.
1:55
[SPEAKER_01]: So let's go ahead and I will pull this up for everyone out there.
2:01
[SPEAKER_01]: All of our wonderful patrons shout out to everyone.
2:04
[SPEAKER_01]: He was watching his live or not live.
2:06
[SPEAKER_01]: Either way, you are watching the exact right thing.
2:10
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, so this is pretty simple here for me.
2:14
[SPEAKER_01]: I'll tell you guys, we've been in this range ever since to be getting a February.
2:19
[SPEAKER_01]: You'll notice that we're just in a long range.
2:22
[SPEAKER_01]: It's been going out for relatively six or seven months right now with, of course, the most important level here around 83K, which was our last rejection around the 200 day yellow moving average right here.
2:35
[SPEAKER_01]: And we spent in a mini range, as you'll see,
2:40
[SPEAKER_01]: The market likes to go from big range to mini range to mini range to mini range.
2:47
[SPEAKER_01]: And so the market is actually ranging more than it's trending.
2:50
[SPEAKER_01]: And this really, this was what throws people off guard a lot.
2:53
[SPEAKER_01]: Is they expected to kind of always be going like this.
2:56
[SPEAKER_01]: And that is not the case usually ever.
2:58
[SPEAKER_01]: When we get our big moves, they happen very, very quickly.
3:01
[SPEAKER_01]: And then we sit here, we chop everyone out, and then we decide to move again.
3:06
[SPEAKER_01]: So it seems like we're kind of in that holding pattern right now with big news today, and big news tomorrow that really affect a lot of the risk on assets.
3:13
[SPEAKER_01]: But I like to look at this as just one big range.
3:15
[SPEAKER_01]: We have our volume profile from the beginning of February, up to where we are now.
3:19
[SPEAKER_01]: And you'll notice that this orange line,
3:22
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I'm very big into volume profile is what we call the Valiory High.
3:26
[SPEAKER_01]: It's just a very technical spot where it's about one standard deviation above where this whole value is.
3:34
[SPEAKER_01]: It's one standard deviation from the point of control.
3:38
[SPEAKER_01]: lower it band here and upper band here and you'll notice we're actually pulling back into it right now as we speak around 75-700.
3:48
[SPEAKER_01]: We also did sweep this little low right here which was to be getting of this range.
3:53
[SPEAKER_01]: So this is something I really like to look at.
3:55
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm actually looking at this as a possible long opportunity over the next few days because as you'll notice
4:04
[SPEAKER_01]: And when we break out above the value of high, what we look for kind of a retest and we want it to hold and if it does and that's a very, very bullish sign.
4:13
[SPEAKER_01]: Moreover, because we didn't take this high out and we just left it really closely, well, what that usually does is that kind of makes this area a magnet because you have stop losses that exist above here, you have stop losses above there and you know, people that are shorting
4:34
[SPEAKER_01]: comes down to the other side of the range, test a very important volume level, and then actually traps everyone, reverses and goes up to start squeezing above the highs.
4:45
[SPEAKER_01]: So this is what I'm looking for.
4:46
[SPEAKER_01]: The only, I guess, consternation would be if we get a bit of a deeper pullback, maybe to retest the 200-day moving average, and
4:54
[SPEAKER_01]: Which, you know, that in itself would be a little bit scarier because that means you are pulling back into this value area.
5:01
[SPEAKER_01]: And so then you would have the case of, okay, maybe you do get a bounce here, but now you'd have to be careful about this becoming a form of resistance.
5:09
[SPEAKER_01]: So if that were the case, that's really what I'd be looking for.
5:11
[SPEAKER_01]: And if that were to happen, then you would have maybe a deeper pull back to retest the top of this range, which is around 67 to 68k.
5:19
[SPEAKER_01]: And why would you do that?
5:21
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, in this impulsive move up, there's not a lot of volume that gets formed here.
5:26
[SPEAKER_01]: So, just as fast as it goes up, it can come down just as fast.
5:30
[SPEAKER_01]: And so, you kind of remitigate these positions.
5:34
[SPEAKER_01]: or these areas that haven't been touched.
5:36
[SPEAKER_01]: And so this would be a very, very lucrative spot if we were to dive that deep.
5:41
[SPEAKER_01]: I should not my base case at the moment to dive that deep.
5:44
[SPEAKER_01]: I actually do want to see this kind of hold up right around this level around 74, 75.
5:48
[SPEAKER_01]: This is kind of that prior consolidation where we broke down impulsively.
5:52
[SPEAKER_01]: So you pull that over here.
5:54
[SPEAKER_01]: This is kind of your zone right here.
5:56
[SPEAKER_01]: So while we'll have a bunch of news coming out and people are selling kind of into this news,
6:02
[SPEAKER_01]: can also be a bit of a signal because we do see price kind of move in the opposite direction before the big events happen and then go the opposite way.
6:12
[SPEAKER_01]: So what we're looking at here is just trying to pretty much find support at the top of this value area high and then looking for a squeeze above there.
6:21
[SPEAKER_01]: And so what does that mean if we do get above there?
6:24
[SPEAKER_01]: What we just kind of
6:27
[SPEAKER_01]: And one very important level is if we go to June 1st right here, we put a array, right there you'll see that the yearly open is around 88k or so.
6:39
[SPEAKER_01]: So we're still negative for the year, but that's going to be a very very interesting spot to go to because if we also take our volume profile from the all time high to where we are now, you'll see that the value of high is also for that range.
6:55
[SPEAKER_01]: all the way up there as well.
6:57
[SPEAKER_01]: So you've got kind of a wonderful little zone here on 878AK, where if we do get a long opportunity to squeeze above into that level, that's really what I'm looking for from a technical standpoint.
7:08
[SPEAKER_01]: Now just knowing that you could pull back just a little bit deeper.
7:11
[SPEAKER_01]: But for now, I think this is a very up possible, good, long opportunity this week.
7:18
[SPEAKER_01]: If we do get a little bit of chaos and volatility of the downside, and that's what I'd be looking for.
7:24
[SPEAKER_01]: Now we're flat on the year and then we have what we call like a red-degree move where we're red for the year, then we go green.
7:31
[SPEAKER_01]: This becomes support and now we actually have the opportunity to maybe squeeze above the early year highs around 97, 98k into the kind of psychological whole number of about a 100,000.
7:43
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's really, you know, pretty simple actually here, uh, what we're looking at technically, when I'm looking at technically personally, I'm going forward especially over the next few weeks.
7:52
[SPEAKER_01]: And we have, you know, we have fixed expiration tomorrow, I believe we have a lot of option operations on Friday.
7:59
[SPEAKER_01]: So I would expect just a ton of volatility in this area, but looking for any kind of
8:06
[SPEAKER_01]: Extended moves to the downside is a possible long opportunity to continue our move up Going into the end of September and then to the next quarter as we will end the quarter out here in two weeks.
8:17
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's what I'm looking at guys Awesome stuff.
8:20
[SPEAKER_02]: Thank you Hunter and then Brendan to hand it over to you and get your thoughts What do you see in on the charts?
8:26
[SPEAKER_02]: Obviously we kind of covered Bitcoin there, so maybe lead us for other Blue chips or anything else that you're eyeing up into this marking moving week
8:33
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, absolutely.
8:34
[SPEAKER_00]: Let's go ahead and take a look at what's happening here with good old Mr. Bitcoin and Ethereum.
8:42
[SPEAKER_00]: And obviously, like a lot of those, I just wanted to add one thing actually with Bitcoin.
8:47
[SPEAKER_00]: And just really agree with Hunter here and say, hey, you know, there is obviously some risk if we kind of break beneath what you see here.
8:53
[SPEAKER_00]: I would agree, you know, you can definitely see a pullback, but I would also,
8:58
[SPEAKER_00]: you know, view that as a longing opportunity because if you look back at the prior cycle, that's actually something that we saw, which was one Bitcoin finally broke that 200-day moving average, and went on a nice run, kind of chilled out for a bit, and then pulled back into it, used it as support, and then the bull market continued from there.
9:15
[SPEAKER_00]: So I wouldn't be opposed to seeing that, but I would agree, you know, net, and that kind of perspective here is overall bullish with
9:22
[SPEAKER_00]: the possibility of pullbacks on the horizon, but I want to be looking that as like a sell everything, short, everything kind of event.
9:29
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think the bullish momentum continues from just, you know, maybe looking a Bitcoin first, to also looking at a lot of large caps and even altcoins here.
9:38
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, one of the things that we've seen fairly recently is that if you compare how Bitcoin is done with kind of this immediate move and then you look at the others chart which excludes all of the large caps right all the top 10 largest cryptos you exclude those out and this thing has actually been moving even better to the upside than what Bitcoin's been doing.
9:56
[SPEAKER_00]: So you've been seeing the traditional awkward market really return here as we've started to see signs that the downtrend looks as if it's breaking.
10:06
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think people are liking this, so all coins have been a big beneficiary of this, and I think leading those altcoins have really been Ethereum and even Solana.
10:15
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, Ethereum here, little bit different from the Bitcoin chart, Bitcoin is retesting these prior highs, where if you go over to Ethereum, it's breaking above and closing above its prior swing highs in here.
10:28
[SPEAKER_00]: So this is a big deal, right?
10:29
[SPEAKER_00]: Ethereum really struggling to break above 23, 2400 back in the earlier parts of this year.
10:35
[SPEAKER_00]: And now, this is where we're bouncing off of and using it as support.
10:39
[SPEAKER_00]: So Ethereum here has been outperforming Bitcoin, Bitcoin rallying about 40% off the lows, and Ethereum here rallying about 76% off the lows, nearly outperforming Bitcoin 2 to 1.
10:52
[SPEAKER_00]: So not only do you have nearly two to one out performance in a theorium, you're also getting it can consolidating and closing over this prior resistance point over those prior highs and you're seeing a similar but not quite a strong move from Solana where it is kind of consolidating above these prior swing highs and above those resistance zones and now using them as a point of support,
11:15
[SPEAKER_00]: But you are seeing a little bit more selling pressure and downside.
11:19
[SPEAKER_00]: As Salana here is down about 10, 11% off the highs.
11:23
[SPEAKER_00]: Whereas the theorium is a little bit less than that rate at around 9%.
11:27
[SPEAKER_00]: So, you know, I'd still keep an eye on these large caps because you've had in altquins as a whole.
11:32
[SPEAKER_00]: I think, you know, if we do get a pullback, I would be watching this others chart to see how altquins continue to maintain.
11:39
[SPEAKER_00]: Because if they do get a reversal here, you'd be still looking at this and saying, hey, you know, the bulk of this move to the upside hasn't really happened yet.
11:49
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, if we are truly, and it's a big if, but if we are truly forming a reversal, well, you know, all coins are obviously, you know, one of those groups that has been just the most heavily sold off.
12:00
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think a lot of people are starting to look back at that.
12:02
[SPEAKER_00]: So, you know, ethia, salani here, listen, my thoughts are, do they have a little bit of downside risk if they break these local levels?
12:09
[SPEAKER_00]: They do, but, you know, similar to Hunter's stance, I really am looking forward at the pullbacks that we get as buying opportunities.
12:18
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's just something I want to be prepared for.
12:22
[SPEAKER_02]: it's a great way to see it up and I think it kind of goes to the fact of us kind of looking back and remembering when because it's a good transition into what's been going on with the clarity act right now is like you know going into the summer there was the August recess deadline of saying hey if we don't get the vote by then this thing's dead it's dead it's dead and then obviously it didn't look good and so the clarity act wasn't going through and then
12:47
[SPEAKER_02]: kind of referring back to the long-time listeners of the podcast we went out to the outest event with the tie, Bryce and I and we produced all those awesome interviews.
12:55
[SPEAKER_02]: And we had the Chris John Carl, who was a former CFTC chair, we had a great interview with him.
13:01
[SPEAKER_02]: And that was the first time that it was early July and that was the first time we heard that narrative of leaders in the space basically saying, hey, it's okay if the Clarity Act doesn't pass.
13:10
[SPEAKER_02]: Crypto's going to be okay.
13:12
[SPEAKER_02]: because we'll get the rules of the road with a CFTC chair that wants regulation and SEC chair that wants regulation.
13:19
[SPEAKER_02]: And so I found it really interesting when the Clarity Act was basically not going to happen at least the betting odds showed that and it didn't.
13:25
[SPEAKER_02]: And then there was a little bit of volatility, but then we've had this, you know, basically this epic rally from the lows going into the fall.
13:33
[SPEAKER_02]: And now all of a sudden the Clarity Act
13:35
[SPEAKER_02]: Seems to have like a heartbeat of life in the odds jumped from like I mean it was like 10 15% to almost 30% this week as we've been heading into some back and forth going in on D.C.
13:47
[SPEAKER_02]: But it just feels like this thing's not going to get across because of ethics.
13:50
[SPEAKER_02]: So that's kind of the the new news that I've seen clarity at kind of got back I don't know if it was in the front seat, but we'll say it got back in the car or something to talk about.
14:01
[SPEAKER_02]: So a hunter anything that you're looking on or do you care about the Clarity Act is a kind of old news to you because to me it feels like it's it's a little bit of just this is a whole recycle of what we just did end of July early August.
14:14
[SPEAKER_01]: Right and I think it's being over shadowed a bit by rates the decisions tomorrow and then.
14:20
[SPEAKER_01]: Best thing is test finding install house financial services today seems like a lot of stuff to kind of over shadow it which actually to me I think there's going to be some sort of.
14:30
[SPEAKER_01]: you know, beauty or bullishness from it somehow.
14:33
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it, you know, matters, but my whole prognosis is this was going to come kind of in 2027 around more of the first quarter when we're, and when that's where the bullishness will come from.
14:42
[SPEAKER_01]: I think, you know, this is a lot of just legal conjecture, just legislative, what is a culture vote, really?
14:48
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean,
14:49
[SPEAKER_01]: You've never heard of that until today and it's really, it's still bullish.
14:53
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, it's already passed the house, everyone has to remember that and really we're just trying to get it to the Senate to finally vote on.
14:59
[SPEAKER_01]: And if it's really just because of ethics provisions, you know, I think they've kind of already weeded out all of the stablecoin and banking stuff that they want from it.
15:07
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think, you know,
15:09
[SPEAKER_01]: For me, I think it's still important.
15:12
[SPEAKER_01]: I just think it's being a bit overshadowed right now with more of rate and oil stuff than it is, just kind of idiosyncratic risk from crypto legislator stance.
15:23
[SPEAKER_02]: And then it looks like Brendan, as we pass it off to you, you just slacked me something a little bit of an update you're seeing.
15:29
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, we got an update from this so this was yours.
15:32
[SPEAKER_00]: I think came in yesterday.
15:34
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe early this morning.
15:35
[SPEAKER_00]: And then like as of 30 minutes ago we just got this, which is where it looks like the Democrats went back to the Republicans and said we want all these things that are on the screen here.
15:46
[SPEAKER_00]: And then that was rejected by the other side.
15:50
[SPEAKER_00]: So it.
15:51
[SPEAKER_00]: it looks like you guys are spot on with what you said is that it really does come down mostly not entirely to ethics, but there seems to be just a disagreement about what should happen here and there's his back and forth.
16:03
[SPEAKER_00]: I'll say the good news here is that this back and forth is happening pretty rapidly, right?
16:08
[SPEAKER_00]: There's like,
16:09
[SPEAKER_00]: an offer, a counter offer, a counter offer to that, a counter offer, and we're seeing these get rapid fired back and forth, sometimes every day, if not multiple times a day.
16:18
[SPEAKER_00]: And so that has, I think, at least a good sign, because prior to this, it'd be like, a counter offer would happen months later, and then they'd revisit a couple of weeks or a couple months after that.
16:28
[SPEAKER_00]: Now at least, you know, they're still clear disagreement, which is not what we want to see.
16:36
[SPEAKER_00]: They're both actively working on this.
16:38
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that there is a desire to get this past from both sides.
16:42
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that's why you're seeing such a rapid fire response back and forth with these different counter-offers.
16:48
[SPEAKER_00]: And that in and of itself is good.
16:50
[SPEAKER_00]: Because it's showing, hey, we want to try to come to an agreement on this.
16:54
[SPEAKER_00]: it just comes down to the actual disagreement part so it's a matter of can they actually meet in the middle on some of these things and I think that's what a lot of us want to see right but you know I've said this before right you know we don't get political over here there's there's got to be given take on both sides I think one side's got to give some the other side has got to give some there's got to be given taken both sides and if if there's not given
17:19
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, who ultimately kind of suffers from that at the end of the day, it's us, right?
17:24
[SPEAKER_00]: The holders, the builders, the people who are reporting on this, you know, the people who are actually invested in stuff were actually the ones who probably
17:33
[SPEAKER_00]: get hit the hardest from something like this, not passing.
17:36
[SPEAKER_00]: So, fingers crossed here, we can kind of have a call to action to just say, hey guys, both you on both sides.
17:42
[SPEAKER_00]: Let's come together, let's come to some agreement here.
17:46
[SPEAKER_00]: Let's give and take, and let's get this thing passed because it's not looking good if it doesn't get passed here pretty soon, then it really starts to get pushed out in the next year, and then that raises other questions
18:02
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, we'll see.
18:03
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, and you've had a lot of people working this on this for over a year in the Senate.
18:08
[SPEAKER_02]: So I know that.
18:09
[SPEAKER_02]: And it is that the alumus, a big proponent of kind of leading this and she's saying, hey, it's now or never for getting the Clarity Act passed.
18:17
[SPEAKER_02]: So again, I think we went through this.
18:20
[SPEAKER_02]: I'll pull up actually the Polymarket bedding on this here because it's actually a pretty interesting chart if you just kind of obviously in the last month it's been, you know, low chance here and then just randomly it popped back up this week
18:32
[SPEAKER_02]: But if you go kind of screen out to all, like we've been covering it all year, basically, and we've seen, you know, moves down to the 40s, then all the way up into the 82.
18:42
[SPEAKER_02]: This was back in February, and that was kind of its high point, but once the summer hit, I mean, that's,
18:47
[SPEAKER_02]: Pretty bad.
18:48
[SPEAKER_02]: Oh my god, my two charges here.
18:49
[SPEAKER_02]: That's not a good looking chart there for the odds of the clarity acts.
18:53
[SPEAKER_02]: So I think it's uh, it's uh, it's solace in the fact that I don't really think this is new news.
18:59
[SPEAKER_02]: Like we kind of already went through this process in July and again, you have people in place that want to try and bring rules of the road.
19:08
[SPEAKER_02]: Obviously, it'd probably be better long term and faster if this past, but I don't think it's an end all be all for
19:14
[SPEAKER_02]: for for the community for crypto for the industry.
19:18
[SPEAKER_02]: But you'll definitely, you know, you'll see a lot more offshoring probably to work around and, you know, you've seen Brian Armstrong talk about that.
19:25
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, Vlad and Robinhood have been in the news a lot with tokenized stocks, etc.
19:29
[SPEAKER_02]: So it's, you know, it's a shame, especially for all the people that worked hard on it.
19:33
[SPEAKER_02]: But I don't know, something that will continue to cover the votes in
19:39
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, what's up, brother?
19:40
[SPEAKER_00]: The votes in 55 minutes, too.
19:42
[SPEAKER_02]: Oh, well, well, we got a lot to cover this week.
19:45
[SPEAKER_02]: So we'll find out how the vote went today.
19:46
[SPEAKER_02]: And then what's going to happen tomorrow as we have one day and 38 minutes and 30 seconds folks until the FOMC meeting.
19:55
[SPEAKER_02]: Brendan, you brought up the CME chart here.
19:57
[SPEAKER_02]: What did you want to break down?
19:58
[SPEAKER_02]: The market is pricing in a hike.
20:01
[SPEAKER_02]: Something that we didn't see coming into the year.
20:04
[SPEAKER_02]: So a lot of changes there.
20:06
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I think what we got here is a number of catalysts.
20:10
[SPEAKER_00]: And this is one of the ones that people are concerned about.
20:14
[SPEAKER_00]: If you go back and look at how crypto has historically performed during hikes, it's not always the most favorable thing.
20:21
[SPEAKER_00]: I think to the counter argument of that, you could have looked about a year ago and said, well, crypto hasn't hiked.
20:28
[SPEAKER_00]: And there was talks about cuts and crypto still done in a perform, you know, maybe exceptionally well there, either.
20:32
[SPEAKER_00]: So,
20:34
[SPEAKER_00]: I would say, you know, there's a bunch of different catalysts on the horizon.
20:38
[SPEAKER_00]: The big one tomorrow, obviously being will, the Federal Reserve cut Earth's cut cut.
20:42
[SPEAKER_00]: Jeez, hike interest rates, and it looks so.
20:46
[SPEAKER_00]: It looks just about certain as you have on the screen.
20:49
[SPEAKER_00]: But I think what people are a little bit nervous about is that there's a handful of catalysts here, right?
20:54
[SPEAKER_00]: They're saying, okay, well, we have interest rate kikes, and maybe the fed goes into a hiking cycle, because I don't think it would make sense that if they're actually going to tackle the inflation process,
21:04
[SPEAKER_00]: one hike of 25 basis points just it doesn't make any sense it's not going to do it so it's the the concept of will do we go into a hiking cycle or you know
21:17
[SPEAKER_00]: Can we come up with some other alternative?
21:19
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's kind of what it looks like.
21:20
[SPEAKER_00]: So people are saying, OK, well, maybe we go into a rate hiking cycle.
21:23
[SPEAKER_00]: That's really not ideal.
21:25
[SPEAKER_00]: Then there's inflation fears.
21:27
[SPEAKER_00]: Then there's a kind of associated with that.
21:29
[SPEAKER_00]: You have rising oil and rising energy prices.
21:32
[SPEAKER_00]: And then people are looking at the Clarity Act maybe not passing and they're being still conflict and disagreement around that.
21:38
[SPEAKER_00]: And then they're looking at the bond market and saying, OK, well, the 10 and 30 year or over 5%.
21:44
[SPEAKER_00]: That's kind of getting concerning for risk on assets.
21:48
[SPEAKER_00]: And then there's other little things, right?
21:49
[SPEAKER_00]: Geopolitical fears and other stuff that's happening.
21:52
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think people are looking at all these different catalysts here from a risk on lens, aka as crypto investors, or maybe even stock investors.
22:02
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think they're looking at all this and saying, hey, you know, this makes my stomach a little bit upset.
22:06
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think this makes me a little bit more nervous.
22:08
[SPEAKER_00]: It makes me a little bit more hesitant to really load on the capital,
22:14
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think what people want to see is a little bit of a, you know, no pun intended, but they want to see some clarity here, right?
22:22
[SPEAKER_00]: They want to see the cloud start to depart.
22:24
[SPEAKER_00]: They want to see the sun come out.
22:26
[SPEAKER_00]: They want to see things clear up a little bit between all these different things.
22:30
[SPEAKER_00]: Because right now, what it looks like is like, oh, there's going to be a storm.
22:34
[SPEAKER_00]: Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday.
22:36
[SPEAKER_00]: And maybe we get some sun towards the end of the week.
22:40
[SPEAKER_00]: But that's kind of like what the the radar looks like right now is that there's all these different forms of like fear and uncertainty and doubt And I think what people are really looking for is for some of these things to go away and get resolved and get a little bit of clarity And I think that's why you're seeing a little bit of a shakingness in the market right now
22:57
[SPEAKER_00]: Now again, I want to reiterate this because that sounds really bearish and it sounds all bad with me saying that there's all these different moving pieces, you know, again, my thoughts here is that I think that we are, you know, long term bullish right I want to be a buyer of the dips I am a buyer of the dips I am not short the market here by any means, but
23:17
[SPEAKER_00]: I do think it's important to kind of put ourselves in the shoes of I think the average person and maybe even the average institution here and say, you know, we want to be aware that there's these factors going on the horizon because I think that's what people are concerned with.
23:32
[SPEAKER_00]: So I say that
23:33
[SPEAKER_00]: I think if you start to see this stuff clear up, if it starts to get finished in a really good way, then I think you can really see the markets go on a big old rally to the upside out of this.
23:47
[SPEAKER_00]: It's just a matter of getting some of these different moving pieces of bud resolved.
23:53
[SPEAKER_00]: So that's the way that I'm viewing this.
23:55
[SPEAKER_00]: Again, big news today.
23:56
[SPEAKER_00]: We get clarity at news here today.
23:59
[SPEAKER_00]: Tomorrow we get the Federal Reserve
24:03
[SPEAKER_00]: information around the carry trade coming out.
24:06
[SPEAKER_00]: So there's a lot of things that are happening here and I think people are just waiting to get some sort of an idea of what could happen next and then they'll act accordingly.
24:15
[SPEAKER_02]: It's a great breakdown Hunter.
24:17
[SPEAKER_02]: We want your take on the FOMC.
24:19
[SPEAKER_02]: What are you looking for?
24:21
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, in the decision slash, you know, how does it kind of affect your, you know, in trading or a long-term investing strategy?
24:29
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, with Bitcoin, is Bitcoin is not a non-yielding asset.
24:34
[SPEAKER_01]: So when rates do go up, you have investors kind of flee to that yield, and it continues to go up until it kind of reaches a threshold.
24:42
[SPEAKER_01]: And because of that, you see money kind of move out of Bitcoin that's usually how it works just because you're not going to get yield from Bitcoin.
24:50
[SPEAKER_01]: And so they entice investors to come into the bond market by increasing that yield.
24:56
[SPEAKER_01]: And so, you know, more importantly than just the one individual event of a rate hike is now that the odds, like even in October, are near about 50% or so.
25:05
[SPEAKER_01]: So, that to kind of like Britain's point is if you kind of get into this more of a cycle or a continuation of this, like this hawkish kind of stance from the Fed, well, then that's kind of a regime shift rather than just a one-off event, and you have increased oil prices.
25:22
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, going up over $100 today,
25:25
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, you had a pretty strong jobs market.
25:28
[SPEAKER_01]: So, um, you know, that that means that they're trying to pull down inflation, but also pull down growth a bit.
25:33
[SPEAKER_01]: So, it's, it's, it's, it's not necessarily great for risk on assets, but I don't think it's the end all be all here.
25:41
[SPEAKER_01]: I think this is just unfortunate.
25:42
[SPEAKER_01]: They're having to do this from an energy supply shock.
25:46
[SPEAKER_01]: And so it's kind of more of, um, it isn't one off of them, but it's going to be maybe persistent.
25:51
[SPEAKER_01]: And so tomorrow, really the,
25:53
[SPEAKER_01]: The important thing is to rhetoric around uh, wash and if he just kind of will look at the dot plot and see if maybe the whole team over there was looking at doing the same thing and if not, then um, you know, maybe there's some uh, dissension amongst amongst the group there, but you know, I think we'll probably maybe have another hike in October as well and let's somehow oil decides to come all the way back down, but that doesn't seem like the case.
26:21
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, there's definitely some larger things on the macro that are playing probably into this decision, especially with geopolitical oil, you know, everything that's been going on around the world this year.
26:33
[SPEAKER_02]: Never, never at dull moment, but it's going to be something that we're going to watch.
26:37
[SPEAKER_02]: I'll be back later this week with Brian and we'll do the breakdown of the decision and we'll give it a day just to see how the market's kind of reacts, because a lot of time that initial reaction
26:47
[SPEAKER_02]: isn't the one you want to go off of especially during you know the press conference can obviously move markets but we'll give it a day to a digest and we'll come back later this week and break it down but a huge market moving week but again I think I agree with both you guys it's kind of steady as the course you know this stuff happens
27:06
[SPEAKER_02]: every cycle there's stuff there's curveballs that you know you really don't see coming and I think it's definitely important to remember that you know we've been we've been we've went from fear for a long time into greed on these indicators and we've been in greed for for a little bit here so
27:22
[SPEAKER_02]: you know, whenever you're around there, you want to, you know, be where you can see some volatility, some profit taking, but the long-term trend of this space continues to be bullish.
27:33
[SPEAKER_02]: We got one, one more topic, Brennan.
27:34
[SPEAKER_02]: I always like talking about this one with you because it's something that we've been covering is Robinhood just making a lot of noise with the, uh,
27:41
[SPEAKER_02]: The tokenized stocks, and I saw that Vlad was obviously going after it or going at it.
27:47
[SPEAKER_02]: Last time we had John on X, but he's saying that Stock Tokens will add a one in one kind share redemption and voting rights for eligible holders.
27:57
[SPEAKER_02]: I think he words there's eligible holders, which is kind of what we're looking for part of the clarity on, but I find it interesting that Vlad keeps leading this charge and isn't backing down.
28:08
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, can we just talk about the AMC drama that he had?
28:13
[SPEAKER_00]: Sure.
28:13
[SPEAKER_00]: I thought it was so silly from the AMC side of things to be so upset.
28:20
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I don't know.
28:22
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't want to...
28:24
[SPEAKER_00]: don't want to throw them too much under the bus, but it looked like it just looked unprofessional.
28:27
[SPEAKER_00]: It looked like the AMC side was just kind of thrown a tantrum about it, and Vlad was pretty well composed, and I agree with them.
28:35
[SPEAKER_00]: It's, I don't know, it's a net positive for AMC, and they're just so upset about it.
28:42
[SPEAKER_00]: And no one else really was.
28:44
[SPEAKER_00]: So I don't understand.
28:46
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that that, you know, hopefully is a one-off scenario.
28:49
[SPEAKER_00]: The only thing I would be concerned about is if you see a lot of other groups coming out and doing that into the future and then maybe that throws a wrench into things.
28:57
[SPEAKER_00]: But so far, you haven't seen that, right?
28:59
[SPEAKER_00]: The only person that's come out is
29:02
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, dare I say.
29:03
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I don't want to be nice.
29:06
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't like being mean to you, though.
29:08
[SPEAKER_00]: But it's like AMC is basically just like a failing kind of nowhere movie theater franchise.
29:15
[SPEAKER_00]: And it's like they're the only ones that are upset.
29:17
[SPEAKER_00]: And then everyone that's somewhat relevant is totally fine with this.
29:21
[SPEAKER_00]: And so I think they're just grasping at straws to try to stay in the headlines.
29:26
[SPEAKER_00]: But yeah.
29:28
[SPEAKER_00]: that was crazy to me.
29:29
[SPEAKER_00]: I was watching that back and forth and I couldn't believe I also thought that just their stance on on tokenization was so uninformed.
29:35
[SPEAKER_00]: It was so uninformed and it hurt me and I think that you know should they actually sit down and it's crazy because these are like their top level executives.
29:42
[SPEAKER_00]: You'd expect that someone would sit down and explain the stuff with them before they go on and like massively broadcast their their very harsh opinions online.
29:53
[SPEAKER_00]: So
29:54
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I don't know.
29:55
[SPEAKER_00]: I think with this, I don't think there's any signs that tokenization slowing down.
29:58
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that there's a lot of signs that it's heating up.
30:02
[SPEAKER_00]: If they want more regularity, then I think most people are fine with having defined regulations of how it should be used and what it should be.
30:13
[SPEAKER_00]: But, yeah, you know, listen, I think we support Robin Hood here, you know, if it's not obvious already, it will be after this.
30:21
[SPEAKER_00]: But, you know, listen, Robin Hood, friend of the podcast, I think they're doing a lot of great innovative things.
30:28
[SPEAKER_00]: And whenever anything, TV is truly transformational and it's innovative and it's new, whenever you're doing that, there are always going to be people who are upset with
30:40
[SPEAKER_00]: You're always going to rob some feathers.
30:42
[SPEAKER_00]: It was the same way with the internet.
30:44
[SPEAKER_00]: It was the same way with like when the, you know, smart phones were blowing up.
30:48
[SPEAKER_00]: It's the same way when there's any kind of of innovation and you're the person leading it.
30:53
[SPEAKER_00]: There's going to be people who don't understand it.
30:56
[SPEAKER_00]: and they're going to get upset with it, but then you have 99%, maybe even at this point, 100% of the financial space, who wants this?
31:06
[SPEAKER_00]: You don't see black rocks saying that stuff.
31:08
[SPEAKER_00]: You don't see fidelity saying that stuff.
31:10
[SPEAKER_00]: You don't see JP Morgan saying that stuff.
31:12
[SPEAKER_00]: You don't see the same thing from Van Acre, Bank of America or City or
31:17
[SPEAKER_00]: The list goes on, right?
31:19
[SPEAKER_00]: The biggest, most successful financial players on the planets and the banks, they want this stuff because they actually understand it.
31:27
[SPEAKER_00]: And so I think it's inevitable that we gravitate more and more towards that.
31:31
[SPEAKER_00]: And I don't think that the movie theater executive team is going to be able to shut down the tokenization space.
31:39
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, it's a it's an evolving part of just finance in general But we want to thank everybody for tuning in.
31:47
[SPEAKER_02]: Thank you, Hunter.
31:47
[SPEAKER_02]: Thank you Brendan again I'm Mark and moving week that we're going to keep our eye on as we head in and to the week We had a great interview go out yesterday with Austin Barak with Brendan and Bryce So you haven't listened that definitely go back and listen because he kind of highlighted his thesis of some top
32:05
[SPEAKER_02]: assets to keep the eye on for this bull run so you're not going to miss that go back and listen to it Also for this video give it a like if you're new bottom right hit our logo and subscribe Well, he's a later this week, but that's all for now.
32:17
[SPEAKER_02]: Bye everybody