Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / GlobalReach's Mulhall: 'Leave' Camp Could Be Unprepared (Audio)

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GlobalReach's Mulhall: 'Leave' Camp Could Be Unprepared (Audio) · Bloomberg Intelligence

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  Speaker 1: Charlotte allright, hey, thank you very much, Bill Maloney worth
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  Speaker 1: breaking news over your Bloomberg type squawk on your terminal
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  Speaker 1: vans squ a w K. I'm Charlie Pelotar Brexit coverage continues.
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  Speaker 1: That's a Bloomberg business flash. You're listening to, are taking
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  Speaker 1: Stuff with Kathleen Hay and Pim Fox on Bloomberg Radio,
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  Speaker 1: continuing coverage of the United Kingdom's decision to leave the
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  Speaker 1: European Union. Northern Ireland's Deputy First Minister, Martin McGuinness, has
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  Speaker 1: called for a border pole on a United Ireland. This,
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  Speaker 1: of course, after the UK voted to leave the EU.
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  Speaker 1: Support for the European Union considerably higher in Northern Ireland
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  Speaker 1: than in the rest of the United Kingdom. Here to
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  Speaker 1: tell us more, Karen Mohaal, Chief investment Officer, Global Reach Securities,
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  Speaker 1: joining us from Dublin, Ireland. Karen, thanks very much for
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  Speaker 1: being with us, first of all your reaction to the
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  Speaker 1: vote and tell us is there going to be a
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  Speaker 1: United Ireland as a result? Um? Good evening him speaking again.
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  Speaker 1: I I it's an interesting one. It's it's kind of
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  Speaker 1: come out a little bit out of a left field
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  Speaker 1: and in the nature of the makeup of of how
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  Speaker 1: maybe last night kind of panned out in the sense
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  Speaker 1: that London the kind of scent center of the kind
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  Speaker 1: of financial market elements of the UK economy, and and
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  Speaker 1: Scotland and Northern Ireland were the three kind of only
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  Speaker 1: the only three areas that were strong Remain votes. And
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  Speaker 1: so you know, in the in the last few hours
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  Speaker 1: you've had a lot of pressure amongst well, you know,
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  Speaker 1: certainly within Scotland and to some extent, I know I
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  Speaker 1: saw Mark mcginnison's comments today. I'm not sure if they
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  Speaker 1: they were a little bit tongue in cheek, but certainly
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  Speaker 1: some pressure coming on what role the kind of regions
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  Speaker 1: will play in in in and in a broader UK
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  Speaker 1: economy that's outside of of Europe. And certainly say Northern
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  Speaker 1: irdn would be a net beneficiary of inflows from from Europe.
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  Speaker 1: They would get an awful lot of structural structural moneys
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  Speaker 1: as well as money. Correct it's called peace money, the
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  Speaker 1: financial support from the European Union. Yes, absolutely, And and
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  Speaker 1: Nordon Irens is the only region within the UK and
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  Speaker 1: that is actually a net beneficiary from from from Europe.
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  Speaker 1: And so it's quite a big deal. And and and
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  Speaker 1: the Northern while then in the Republic, our economy has
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  Speaker 1: been has been going reasonably robustly over the last two
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  Speaker 1: or three years. Nordon Arden it's still reasonably slow growth,
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  Speaker 1: kind of dynamic and they would they would certainly not
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  Speaker 1: want to lose any help that Europe would provide them
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  Speaker 1: at the moment, and so and that's probably I guess
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  Speaker 1: where Martin McGinnis is coming from in terms of maybe
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  Speaker 1: looking for a normal IREN vote. They're trying to find
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  Speaker 1: a mechanism that would keep them within within europe state.
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  Speaker 1: They've obviously voted, they they voted, they were strong remain
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  Speaker 1: in last night's referendum. So Karen, earlier we had on
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  Speaker 1: the show of Marian Harkins, member of the EU Parliament,
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  Speaker 1: a former member of Ireland's parliament, and uh, she like
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  Speaker 1: our uh John Nichols Waite, our editor in chief for
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  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Editorial. They've basically said, how this house this is
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  Speaker 1: in a way, how kind of distressing this is? And
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  Speaker 1: of course I'm wondering. Then we can see what the
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  Speaker 1: mood in the markets is. We can see that. You
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  Speaker 1: look at European stocks, you know, Uh, the smallest loss
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  Speaker 1: ironically is in the foot See you've got the IBEX
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  Speaker 1: down and the foot well, actually, excuse me, when hundred
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  Speaker 1: is down three percent, the foot ce m ib is
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  Speaker 1: down twelve and a half percent. You have you know
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  Speaker 1: in Italy, yes, Italy, and the IBEX in in Spain,
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  Speaker 1: thank you sir. And of course Uh. Anyway, the mood
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  Speaker 1: is sell in Ireland, in Dublin, in your firm. What
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  Speaker 1: is the mood mood among people about this moment? Well,
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  Speaker 1: I don't think it. Very many people would have predicted
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  Speaker 1: this cutting and I guess that's the it's it's the
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  Speaker 1: kind of the broad sense of I don't. I think
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  Speaker 1: shock is probably a little bit of a kind of
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  Speaker 1: a strong word because you know, the referendum, the polls
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  Speaker 1: were always we're always reasonably tice and I think probably
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  Speaker 1: the in terms of the markets themselves, the important dynamic
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  Speaker 1: to understand is SOT. At this time last week, we
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  Speaker 1: were we weren't a whole lot of way from the
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  Speaker 1: color levels that we are now, certainly on European equity markets,
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  Speaker 1: certainly where the docks and the French cat closed, and
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  Speaker 1: it was within the range that we had been in
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  Speaker 1: the last couple of weeks. But what we did see
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  Speaker 1: was Friday, Monday, Tuesday this week a significant rally seven
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  Speaker 1: eight percent higher on the basis that remain had taken
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  Speaker 1: back the lead in terms of the polls. So you know,
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  Speaker 1: the sell off has been very aggressive, it has been
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  Speaker 1: um in in a very short period of time. In reality,
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  Speaker 1: we've kind of only moved back to the levels that
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  Speaker 1: we would have seen last week. Where we go from here, though,
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  Speaker 1: I think it's going to be very interesting because possibly,
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  Speaker 1: unlike maybe some of the worries we've had in the
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  Speaker 1: last couple of years, whether it be China or you know,
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  Speaker 1: your US procession or or you know, issues around a
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  Speaker 1: bowl of from from and this is going to be
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  Speaker 1: a very slow moving story. And there's going to be
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  Speaker 1: you know, a couple of catalysts in the next week
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  Speaker 1: or so, but after that it's delightly to die into
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  Speaker 1: the background for a couple of years. But kind of
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  Speaker 1: that level of uncertainty is going to remain and how
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  Speaker 1: and and we're going to see it sort of piecemeal
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  Speaker 1: drip drip drip as the UK tries to find a
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  Speaker 1: way to maneuver themselves out of Europe but also keep
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  Speaker 1: their keep their trade deals, et cetera, maybe in place.
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  Speaker 1: Jared Muhall is chief investment officer Dublin based Global Reach Securities.
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  Speaker 1: He says this issue of the UK, which could play
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  Speaker 1: out over a couple of years, will kind of fade
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  Speaker 1: in the background to the markets. I'm wondering though, if
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  Speaker 1: there'll be headline risk was such an important global event.
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  Speaker 1: Coming up on taking stock, We're gonna take stock of
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  Speaker 1: the pound sterling, the British currency now down more than
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  Speaker 1: eight and a quarter percent at one thirty six fifty two.
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  Speaker 1: Find out will Mark Karney and the Bank of England
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  Speaker 1: have to intercede in order to maintain the value of
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  Speaker 1: the pound. That's next, also Pim, what should you buy?
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  Speaker 1: What should you keep selling? It's a very important question.
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  Speaker 1: That's We're going to continue our conversation with Karen Mulhall,
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  Speaker 1: chief investment officer at Dublin Blaced Global Reach Securities Charlotte
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  Speaker 1: Pillets back. Charlie Pillett is in our New York newsroom
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  Speaker 1: with Bloomberg Business Flash, Thank you very much. Kathleen Hayes
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  Speaker 1: pim Fox fast moving markets after that historic Brexit vote
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  Speaker 1: in the United Kingdom. Here's where we stand. We've got
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  Speaker 1: twenty nine minutes to go ahead of the clothes on
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  Speaker 1: this Friday. SMP five hundred nicks down seventy seven points.
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  Speaker 1: That's a drop of three point seven percent. The SMP
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  Speaker 1: now at two thousand, thirty six down. Industrials down six
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  Speaker 1: hundred nineteen points to drop there of three point four percent.
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  Speaker 1: That now at seventeen thousand, three hundred ninety two. Nasdaq
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  Speaker 1: is down two hundred six points to forty seven oh three,
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  Speaker 1: a drop there of four point two percent. Sterling right
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  Speaker 1: now is at one thirty six fifty six. We've got
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  Speaker 1: gold surging of fifty nine dollars the ounce to twelve
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  Speaker 1: thirteen twenty two on gold. That is a game of
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  Speaker 1: four point seven percent. So equity is sinking to session lows.
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  Speaker 1: The victory of the lead campaign stunning many investors. Michael
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  Speaker 1: Cogino is the president at the Permanent Portfolio family of funds.
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  Speaker 1: And in the coming months and years, Great Britain is
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  Speaker 1: gonna have to negotiate with the European Union as to
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  Speaker 1: how to exit whatever deals it has currently and enter
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  Speaker 1: into new deals as well as deals with other countries
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  Speaker 1: outside the European Union for trade deals that could be
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  Speaker 1: positive or negative. We just don't know already. Immediate impact
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  Speaker 1: on corporations British airways owner i a G lowering its
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  Speaker 1: two thousand sixteen profit targets, an oil tumbling along with
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  Speaker 1: most commodities. West Texas is going to be the crew
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: down five dropping to one barrel on w T I
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  Speaker 1: now at sixty brand down four point nine percent. It
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  Speaker 1: is three thirty two on Wall Street. Now, let's take
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  Speaker 1: a look at other news from around the world. Thank you,
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  Speaker 1: Charlie from the Bloomberg Newsroom. I'm Jill Schneider. President Obama
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  Speaker 1: says he has spoken to British Prime Minister David Cameron
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  Speaker 1: and is confident the UK is committed to an orderly
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  Speaker 1: transition out of the European Union. Mr Obama spoke this
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  Speaker 1: afternoon at Stanford University. I do think that yesterday's vote
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  Speaker 1: speaks to the ongoing changes and challenges that are raised
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  Speaker 1: by globalization. But while the UK's relationship with the EU
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  Speaker 1: will change, one thing that will not change is the
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  Speaker 1: special relationship that exists between our two nations. The President
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: had urged Britain to remain with the European Union. Donald
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: Trump is hailing Britain's vote to leave the EU and
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: predicting that other nations will follow suit. Hillary Clinton says
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: we need to respect the choice the United Kingdom has made.
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: British Prime Minister David Cameron is resigning in the wake
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: of yesterday's vote. Cameron says he worked hard to stop
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  Speaker 1: the vote from passing, but failed. I held nothing back.
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  Speaker 1: I was absolutely clear about my belief that Britain is stronger,
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  Speaker 1: safer and better off inside the European Union, and I
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  Speaker 1: made clear the referendum was about this and this alone,
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  Speaker 1: not the future of any single politician, including myself. Cameron
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  Speaker 1: says he will leave office knowing he did what he could.
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: President Obama is designating the Stone Wall in Here in
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: New York as a national monument, the first to honor
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: gay rights. The tavern in Greenwich Village became the site
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: of an uprising after police raided it in June nine,
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: triggering what is widely viewed as the start of the
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: gay rights movement. Global News twenty four hours a day,
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: powered by more than hundred journalists and analysts in more
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: than one hundred twenty countries. From the Bloomberg News Room,
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: I'm Jill Schneider and this is Bloomberg Charlie, and we
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: thank you, and again recapping equities Laura across the board,
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  Speaker 1: six hundred point drop in the down Jones Industrial Average,
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: down three point three tenure yield one point five seven.
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: Our Brexit coverage continues. I'm Charlie Pellett and that's a
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business flash. This he's taking stuff with Kathleen Hayes
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: and Pim Fox on Bloomberg Radio. A global sell off
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: in global assessets on speculation, the UK decision to leave
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  Speaker 1: you hamper worldwide growth. We certainly con see it in
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  Speaker 1: the numbers. Is Charlie Pellett just so eloquently laid it
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  Speaker 1: out for us. We're continuing our conversation now with Karen
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  Speaker 1: will Hall's chief investment officer at Global Reach Securities in Dublin, Ireland.
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  Speaker 1: So certainly someone who is in the heart of the
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  Speaker 1: impact and all the big questions about where this leads
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  Speaker 1: next and of course for you here and this is
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  Speaker 1: such an important investment question because in your work at
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  Speaker 1: Global Reach Securities you invest mainly in stock indices or
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: sectors through e t f s. You mostly have an international,
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  Speaker 1: a global macro focus. Let's start there. Pam was just
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  Speaker 1: mentioning how much the pound has fallen at the lowest
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  Speaker 1: level since is that where you start? Do you start
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  Speaker 1: with currencies? Do you look at this rally in uh,
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  Speaker 1: you know, government bond markets, particularly the US that seems
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  Speaker 1: to be continuing. What's your first step, I think, Cavin,
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  Speaker 1: when when we're still of looking at how our investment
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: process that involved of and and kind of takes into
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  Speaker 1: account events like what we saw in the last twenty
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  Speaker 1: four hours, I think for the first thing, we kind
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: of try and come back to what the double central
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: banks are doing M and the certainly for the moment
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  Speaker 1: it will involve evolve over time, but for the moment,
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: we were very focused on Mario dragging and what the
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: use to be are doing. UM and we've spoken about
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  Speaker 1: this before, but the kind of the natural flow of
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: that is that we would see the euro being on
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: average weak currency, so we would look to both allocay
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: capital away from the Europe, from the Euro to currencies
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: that we think with strengthened against the Euro. And then
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: within Europe, we've had had a recently um strong focused
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: on to the European corporate bonds and we have stayed
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: away from from European sovereign bonds valuations they're a little
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: bit strained, but particularly European corporate bonds, some high yield
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: corporate debt, and some European equities based around the German market.
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  Speaker 1: We've we've had over the last six months and very
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: its positions in Sterling against the Euro. We have very
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: small exposure to Sterling at the moment with within the fund,
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: mostly due to the uncertainty around what we've seen in the
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: the last twenty four hours, and I can't I I
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: see probably some opportunity for Sterling to to weaken a
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: little bit further, and we certainly wouldn't be trying to
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: buy and buy the difference sterling just yet, and we'd
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  Speaker 1: want to see a catalyst that turn it around, because
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: as I think a couple of the other guests have
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: already mentioned today that the UK is in a bit
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: of a difficult spot in the sense that Karnie probably
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: would quite like to cut rates and sort of give
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: a bit of an indication of a of a of
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: action into sort of, you know, improve confidence. But you know,
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: if the if sterling is weakened so much already, and
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: if it was the weaken materially more, it will lead
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: to a huge problem with the important inflation. And the
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: UK economy is very susceptible to important inflation and we
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: saw that in the eleven and twenty twelve periods. So
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: I would suspect if Cornie does decide to do anything,
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: it's going to be more around maybe quantity of easy
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: or liquidity as it measures, and at that point we
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: might get more interested in in in terms of maybe
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: taking some Sterling exposure and with within our investment process. Karen,
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: I just want to follow up on something you're talking
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: about having to do with the catalyst for a turnaround
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: at that point, won't everybody know that there's that catalyst?
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: And isn't this when real money is made, You look
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: at things that no one else wants to buy because
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: they believe that the situation will not change. Well, pin
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: things can get cheaper, I guess, is what I'd always
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: said to that, and I think even in terms of
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: the clodity sell off we've seen over the last couple
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: of years, and I've always been it's not that we
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: would be necessarily be waiting for the turn, but I
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: certainly think in terms of getting excited about about Sterling again,
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: and you know there's there's some chance and and certainly
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: some technical analysis that one of our team is Don't
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: has done with suggested Sterling certainly against the daughter mightn't
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: have a whole lot more downside to go. I think
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: you'd have to, you'd have to let a bull the
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: days go before you you decided to to really move
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: in there. And yeah, and as I say, you'd be
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: looking for something on the even on the fringes. It
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: might not have to be a direct catalyst, but something
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: on the fringes to suggest that the selling of of
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: of Stirling has at least debated for a period. So
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: over the long run, where how do you see this
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: working out? And does it really make that much difference
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: in some sense when all of a sudden and five
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: years down the road for investors like you people have
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: to manage money. Is it just is it? Is it
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: going to all settle down and we'll be where we were,
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: or does it have some lasting effect that we should
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: be worried about what it's going to have a lasting
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: effect on the growth look for the UK economy and
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: the Leave camp have argued that's very strongly that the
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: short term negative catalyst that we're sort of seeing begin
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  Speaker 1: to play out now we'll be offset by a longer
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: term improvement in terms of trade deals, etcetera. And we'll
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: have to see how that kind of works out. But
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  Speaker 1: for me, I guess um go in forward, it's not
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: whether or not it has a lasting impact, it's how
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: more how as I spoken maybe before the break, is
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  Speaker 1: how does the houses sort of play out? Does it
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: kind of and it's probably not going to happen in
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: the next week or so, but does it fade back
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: into the background and then kind of re emerge as
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: they were kind of a risk off move and then
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: kind of go back and then re emerge again. And
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: that's why I was quite interested to see Bars Johnson's
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: comments and this morning, who has been the sort of
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: main figurehead of the Leave camp. And you know, it
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: occurs to me that maybe the Leave camp maybe weren't
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: that confidence in their own success. And I'm not sure
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: they have their own plan in place about how to
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: proceed from here. Thank you very much for spending time
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: with the Skier. And Mohall is chief investment officer for
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: Global Reach Securities. They are based in Dublin, Ireland. The
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: pound sterling right now down more than eight percent against
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: the US dollar at one thirty six seventy four. You're
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: listening to Bloomberg Radio. Coming up on Bloomberg Radio, Russelle
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: balancing could be having a Brexit LNE like effect on
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: US stocks too. We're going to find out why, what
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: it means for the market's next on Bloomberg Radio.