Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Trade Deadline & Planting Head-To-Head Flags | NFL Week 10 Betting Preview

Transcript

Trade Deadline & Planting Head-To-Head Flags | NFL Week 10 Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, presented by DraftKings. The Crown is yours.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: We are an Action Network podcast. I'm Brandon Kravitz. The
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: crew is back on this fine Tuesday morning. Kendra Middleton
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: and the Prime Minister Stucky. On today's episode, We've got
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: our plant the Flag game for week ten, a breakdown
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: of the top storylines, and of course the main event
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: evans Tuesday primer. You can't start a betting week without it.
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: Kendra on the Sunday Night episode, I reference the speed
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: in which this country turns the page from Halloween to Christmas.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: It's quite admirable when you think about the expeditiousness that
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: we as a society act like. You can't find a
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: fucking pumpkin anywhere and Halloween's been over for a day.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: Do you think it's admirable or obnoxious how quickly we
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: switch gears from one holiday to the next.
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: It's obnoxious.
• 1:04
  Speaker 3: I'm a Thanksgiving truther, as I'm sure most of the
• 1:06
  Speaker 3: people in this podcast are, because we're food in football people.
• 1:09
  Speaker 3: I hate Christmas. It's the worst holiday in my opinion.
• 1:12
  Speaker 3: I know that that's a hot take. Christmas is dumb.
• 1:14
  Speaker 3: Let us have let us Thanksgiving people have a second
• 1:17
  Speaker 3: Put your decorations up the day after Thanksgiving and you
• 1:20
  Speaker 3: can keep them up until fucking Valentine's Day if you want,
• 1:23
  Speaker 3: but leave us alone. Let me have my football, Let
• 1:26
  Speaker 3: me enjoy fall for five more minutes until I, as
• 1:29
  Speaker 3: someone who lives in Boston, wait for the impending doom
• 1:32
  Speaker 3: of darkness and cold.
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: Let me push it off for half an hour.
• 1:35
  Speaker 3: Go away, go away, shut up, shut up, shut up,
• 1:38
  Speaker 3: go away, go away.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: Christmas is really two separate holidays in the country, in
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: the world. There's the religious one and then there's the
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: commercial one.
• 1:47
  Speaker 3: And.
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: I hate them both.
• 1:51
  Speaker 4: I'm not a very religious person, but the commercial one
• 1:53
  Speaker 4: I'm here for. I love it. I'm happy.
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: I'm so bad at buying gifts.
• 1:57
  Speaker 3: If I ever have to buy any of you a gift,
• 2:00
  Speaker 3: just gonna overnight you a live lobster.
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: And I'm not joking.
• 2:02
  Speaker 3: I send someone in my family a live lobster every
• 2:06
  Speaker 3: single year. Nobody knows who's gonna get it. Somebody gets lobstered.
• 2:08
  Speaker 3: It's what If I ever have to send you guys
• 2:10
  Speaker 3: a gift, just know what's going.
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: To be that I'm the worst gift to give for.
• 2:14
  Speaker 3: It's too much pressure, and I like, I love people,
• 2:17
  Speaker 3: but that is not my thing.
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: I can't.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: No, no, send Stucky some crab cakes for me instead,
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: because I still send.
• 2:26
  Speaker 5: I gotta send you my address.
• 2:28
  Speaker 3: Well I want my I want my head to head again,
• 2:30
  Speaker 3: Stucky the other day.
• 2:31
  Speaker 5: So yeah, we didn't bet anything.
• 2:35
  Speaker 4: Wasted opportunity, guys, the Yeah.
• 2:39
  Speaker 5: I really don't care about the holidays. I love Thanksgiving,
• 2:42
  Speaker 5: love Christmas, but like my he, I don't have time
• 2:44
  Speaker 5: to worry my holidays as soon.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: As you don't put anything up for any of these. No,
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: we have between your college basketball and college football bets.
• 2:53
  Speaker 5: We have people that put up stuff. But like, like
• 2:57
  Speaker 5: you know, I told you that there's people that come
• 2:58
  Speaker 5: over and do my in law's house like it's like
• 3:02
  Speaker 5: a people drive to see it. They were out there
• 3:04
  Speaker 5: the other day said putting up the Christmas lights and
• 3:07
  Speaker 5: all the like, telling you it takes like three days
• 3:10
  Speaker 5: they come over and put stuff up in our house.
• 3:13
  Speaker 5: But like it's otherwise to her, My mother in law
• 3:18
  Speaker 5: would be like ridiculously upset if we didn't decorate. So
• 3:22
  Speaker 5: they she basically gets people to decorate for us. But no,
• 3:25
  Speaker 5: once Thanksgiving changes, I mean once after Halloween. It's my holidays.
• 3:31
  Speaker 5: College basketball, Like, I'm trying to keep my head on
• 3:34
  Speaker 5: straight every day, transitioning from one hour's NFL, the next
• 3:39
  Speaker 5: hour's college football, the next hour's college basketball. Repeat. They
• 3:43
  Speaker 5: repeat that six seven times a day, every day. Try
• 3:47
  Speaker 5: to find an hour nap and keep going.
• 3:50
  Speaker 3: Well, it's a Christmas scarf, that's it. Those are my decorations.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: I did have in my secret notes over here that
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: I wanted a mental health check on Stucky because my god,
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: this time of year for you, college football, college basketball
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: just started. I was watching Arizona in Florida last night.
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: But you're putting out content for all of this on
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: top of what we do in the NFL.
• 4:12
  Speaker 4: So this is just a you good?
• 4:15
  Speaker 5: Are you doing this for forever? It's labor of love.
• 4:21
  Speaker 5: But yeah, the hardest part is college basketball is so
• 4:23
  Speaker 5: much harder now. Markets obviously get a little morefficient over time,
• 4:27
  Speaker 5: but just the same thing happens in college football. Like
• 4:31
  Speaker 5: the prep for these sports used to be so much easier,
• 4:33
  Speaker 5: but now with the roster turnovers and the transfer portal.
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: The NIL ruined everything.
• 4:37
  Speaker 5: More teams keeping track and like adjusting these teams and
• 4:44
  Speaker 5: then keeping track of injuries on top of that, Like
• 4:47
  Speaker 5: just keeping track of the NFL injuries is hard enough.
• 4:48
  Speaker 5: Now doing that for college basketball and college football. Yeah,
• 4:53
  Speaker 5: there's not a second that goes by in the day
• 4:55
  Speaker 5: where that's not all I'm thinking of in November and December.
• 4:57
  Speaker 5: Literally not a second. So yeah, but I love it.
• 5:01
  Speaker 5: It's just like the ultimate grind, and I just fully
• 5:05
  Speaker 5: immersed myself in it. So anyway, last night we hit
• 5:08
  Speaker 5: our we hit our parlay again, back to back days,
• 5:13
  Speaker 5: Cardinals get started nuts McBride. I'm glad we can ensure McBride.
• 5:19
  Speaker 4: I love it.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: And by the way, the first comment we get on
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: Twitter is some clown going, I never tell you guys. Okay,
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: well that has not been a profitable opinion. Over the
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: last two days, we are six and oher on our
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: biggest bets that we've given out on this podcast.
• 5:37
  Speaker 4: So I had a.
• 5:38
  Speaker 3: Perfect weekend this weekend. Everybody can suck mead Ry.
• 5:43
  Speaker 5: No time for gloating. It's stay humble, keep grinding. But
• 5:46
  Speaker 5: McBride twenty one games with Kyler Murray two touchdowns, last
• 5:50
  Speaker 5: three games without them four touchdowns. He obviously benefits from Brissette.
• 5:56
  Speaker 5: The entire offense looks much better. Uh, I don't think
• 6:01
  Speaker 5: we're gonna hot take. I don't think we see Calamary
• 6:04
  Speaker 5: again this year unless Prissette gets hurt. And I was
• 6:08
  Speaker 5: screaming from the mountaintops. The Cardinals are not bad. The
• 6:10
  Speaker 5: Cardinals are a better team than the Cowboys.
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: Well, I was gonna say.
• 6:14
  Speaker 3: Are the Cardinals better than the public thought?
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: Or are the Cowboys more asked than everybody thought? That
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: was my big question.
• 6:22
  Speaker 5: Both.
• 6:22
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I would go both on that.
• 6:24
  Speaker 5: Yeah. I mean, like everyone is like, oh, the Cowboys
• 6:26
  Speaker 5: are so scary at home, Like they didn't they they
• 6:28
  Speaker 5: they should have lost to Russell Wilson at home. You know,
• 6:32
  Speaker 5: they beat the Shell Commanders team. That's it. They blew
• 6:35
  Speaker 5: them out. That's like this. This defense is among the
• 6:39
  Speaker 5: worst in the league. And the Cardinals defense, now that
• 6:44
  Speaker 5: it's healthy, you got they were playing. It's one of
• 6:47
  Speaker 5: the most the most well schemed defenses in the league
• 6:51
  Speaker 5: with their three three high safety looks. Now you add
• 6:54
  Speaker 5: and they had a bunch of injuries, but now that
• 6:56
  Speaker 5: they have will Johnson looks incredible as a corner you know,
• 6:59
  Speaker 5: Meltman William back at cornerback. Walter Nolan made his NFL
• 7:03
  Speaker 5: debut the first round draft pick, well, I thought was
• 7:06
  Speaker 5: kind of a steal. I thought he should have won
• 7:07
  Speaker 5: the top ten. He looked great. You add him to
• 7:10
  Speaker 5: that front, and then on top of that, with Persett
• 7:14
  Speaker 5: in the mix, the entire offense looks so much better.
• 7:18
  Speaker 5: There's actually a passing element, and Harrison looks so much better.
• 7:22
  Speaker 5: McBride is more involved. So this is a team that
• 7:26
  Speaker 5: I think is still undervalued. I mean that they lost
• 7:29
  Speaker 5: five games in a row by four points or less,
• 7:32
  Speaker 5: and they easily could have been five and two instead
• 7:36
  Speaker 5: of two and five. And yeah, it's a team that
• 7:39
  Speaker 5: I'll be looking to continue to back, especially if it's
• 7:41
  Speaker 5: per Set that remains in there, which I think he will.
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: And we have that opportunity stucky, because the Cardinals are
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: plus six and a half against the Seattle Seahawks over
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: on DraftKings as it stands right now, Yeah, are we
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: gonna want are we going to take a bite of
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: that apple?
• 7:58
  Speaker 3: Or you need to talk about we need to talk
• 8:01
  Speaker 3: about something before we talk about that, because I think
• 8:04
  Speaker 3: we need to start predicting who are going to be
• 8:07
  Speaker 3: buyers and sellers today because and people might be listening
• 8:10
  Speaker 3: to that after But I think that this Cardinals team
• 8:13
  Speaker 3: could probably be a seller.
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: Think about how many teams right now.
• 8:16
  Speaker 3: Are desperate for a tight end, Like tight ends have
• 8:19
  Speaker 3: become just such a luxury in this league, which I
• 8:22
  Speaker 3: never thought that I would say when I was a kid,
• 8:24
  Speaker 3: And now here we are. There are some of the
• 8:26
  Speaker 3: you know, most prominent pass catchers and a lot of
• 8:29
  Speaker 3: these offenses they do everything. They're underpaid, they're underappreciated. I
• 8:33
  Speaker 3: think the Cardinals might be sellers. We need to think
• 8:36
  Speaker 3: about that while we're previewing some of these games today,
• 8:37
  Speaker 3: because I see that we're going to talk about Thursday
• 8:39
  Speaker 3: Night football too. I think the Raiders are going to
• 8:41
  Speaker 3: be sellers. So before we get here, like, do you
• 8:43
  Speaker 3: guys think that the Cardinals are gonna be sellers, especially
• 8:46
  Speaker 3: with this Jacoby Brissett Kyler Murray situation.
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: I'm in the camp of yes, No.
• 8:53
  Speaker 5: I think I do not think so. I think that
• 8:56
  Speaker 5: came out yesterday and said they're not going.
• 8:58
  Speaker 4: To they're only two games back on a wild card spot.
• 9:02
  Speaker 5: Yeah, they're there, especially they won yesterday. The only person
• 9:07
  Speaker 5: they're gonna I did my trade is Kyler Murray, and
• 9:11
  Speaker 5: I think they're better with Berssette I do too.
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: Who's the third string?
• 9:17
  Speaker 5: Oh, it's probably like, uh, who's the he's dreadful.
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: I'm looking it up.
• 9:22
  Speaker 3: Uh, it is Cadence Lovas. So they can't trade.
• 9:27
  Speaker 5: They're done anyway. It depends on what they get.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: You can always imagine saying that at the start of
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: the season, if Brissett goes down, the Cardinals are done.
• 9:37
  Speaker 4: I would have loved to crystal balls.
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: Cardinals are already done.
• 9:42
  Speaker 5: I don't think so. I think they're gonna try to
• 9:43
  Speaker 5: make a run. I mean it's a team that could
• 9:44
  Speaker 5: play with anyone. They went to Indianapolis and was were
• 9:47
  Speaker 5: right there to win. They almost beat Green Bay, they
• 9:50
  Speaker 5: should have beat the forty nine ers. They just went
• 9:52
  Speaker 5: into Dallas and destroyed them from I mean destroy them
• 9:55
  Speaker 5: start to finish. I think they can make a run
• 9:58
  Speaker 5: at the wild Card. So I don't think that they're
• 10:02
  Speaker 5: going to sell other than Kyler Murray. And I think
• 10:04
  Speaker 5: the other thing is with this week's matchup against Seattle,
• 10:09
  Speaker 5: which is a huge game for them, and they have
• 10:12
  Speaker 5: they have some winnable game, like you want to see,
• 10:14
  Speaker 5: can they get the nine wins like they have the
• 10:15
  Speaker 5: Jags at home, the Niners at home, after this, uh, Texans, Falcons,
• 10:21
  Speaker 5: Bengals still on their schedule, so there's some winnable games
• 10:27
  Speaker 5: now if you look back historically, the Seahawks, while I'm
• 10:31
  Speaker 5: one hundred percent, I was so mad last right after
• 10:33
  Speaker 5: that game ended last night that people came in and
• 10:37
  Speaker 5: bought the Cardinals plus seven and I had a notification
• 10:41
  Speaker 5: up and I got it and I couldn't get to
• 10:42
  Speaker 5: the Cardinals in time. I'm hopefully we see a seven
• 10:45
  Speaker 5: again this week and then I'll be interested. The Seahawks
• 10:48
  Speaker 5: have so because I think still think Arizona's defense is
• 10:51
  Speaker 5: extremely underrated. Uh and I mean going into Dallas and
• 10:56
  Speaker 5: shutting down that offense. I mean, dak that off was
• 10:58
  Speaker 5: had zero points to the fourth quarter. That's impressive. And
• 11:01
  Speaker 5: now that their corners back, they have no one like
• 11:02
  Speaker 5: I mentioned, and then I think the offense is still
• 11:04
  Speaker 5: undervalued because of the percent and just the perception of
• 11:07
  Speaker 5: this team as well from who they actually are. But
• 11:10
  Speaker 5: they've really struggled with Seattle in the past, and most
• 11:14
  Speaker 5: of that has been because I mean, because you look
• 11:15
  Speaker 5: back at that game in Arizona earlier this year, they
• 11:18
  Speaker 5: were they did as good of a job on anyone
• 11:21
  Speaker 5: against Seattle's offense who's been I mean, Sam Darnold has
• 11:24
  Speaker 5: been the best quarterback in the league statistically. The game
• 11:27
  Speaker 5: was twenty to twenty at the end, and then they
• 11:30
  Speaker 5: botched the kickoff Seahawks get a field goal. The biggest
• 11:32
  Speaker 5: problem that Arizona has had against the Seahawks is Kyler.
• 11:37
  Speaker 5: Murray has been horrendous the last two years. In particular,
• 11:42
  Speaker 5: McDonald has his number. They get so much pressure on
• 11:44
  Speaker 5: him and he can't do it. Per set has been
• 11:48
  Speaker 5: so much better under pressure. Their plaction rates have gone up.
• 11:53
  Speaker 5: So yeah, I think that this is probably the highest
• 11:55
  Speaker 5: we're going to be on Seattle. Like, I think that
• 11:57
  Speaker 5: they could be a top five team like I have them,
• 11:58
  Speaker 5: That's where I have them now. But I think this
• 12:02
  Speaker 5: is a perfect like Bylos Still Bilo on the Cardinals
• 12:05
  Speaker 5: and so on.
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: I think they're the best team in the NFC. I
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: really do.
• 12:10
  Speaker 4: You can make that case right now the way they're
• 12:12
  Speaker 4: playing on both sides.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: By the way Kyler two and nine straight up three
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: and eight ats in his career against the Seattle Seahawks.
• 12:20
  Speaker 4: So yeah.
• 12:20
  Speaker 5: Morely, his numbers are awful, like, uh, horrendous.
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: Well, I want to stay on this trade deadline topic
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: that's at four o'clock today Tuesday. If you're listening to this,
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: it's part of our top three storylines heading into Week ten,
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: one of which I want to talk about Jayden Daniels
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: and his injury and some of these teams at the
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: top of anybody's power rankings taking ls.
• 12:43
  Speaker 4: But let's play a quick.
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: Game of nominate one team that you desperately want to
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: see make a move today in either direction, either sellers buyers. Kendra,
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: is there a team for you that you want to
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: see make a move today in either direction?
• 13:02
  Speaker 3: Obviously I want the Jaguars to go for Quinn Williams
• 13:04
  Speaker 3: and Jacoby Meyers, but outside of them, I.
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: Think I'd like to see the Colts be buyers. Even
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: though we're in the same division.
• 13:12
  Speaker 3: I've come to grips with the fact that this is
• 13:15
  Speaker 3: just not a Jags season. And I know that I'm
• 13:16
  Speaker 3: supposed to hate everybody in the division and she're it
• 13:19
  Speaker 3: against them whatever, But they're just such a fun team.
• 13:21
  Speaker 3: They're so easy to root for. A lot of good
• 13:23
  Speaker 3: like storyline lines on the team. I'm just kind of like,
• 13:27
  Speaker 3: for one season, f it whatever, let the Colts be good.
• 13:31
  Speaker 3: If I have to go outside of the division. You
• 13:33
  Speaker 3: guys know, I'm gonna say the P words. I'm gonna
• 13:36
  Speaker 3: go with the Panthers and the Patriots. I want to party.
• 13:38
  Speaker 3: I want the Patriots to be good as much as
• 13:41
  Speaker 3: I hate them and they ruined my life in twenty seventeen.
• 13:44
  Speaker 3: I'm making more money when the Patriots are good. I'm
• 13:46
  Speaker 3: partying more when the Patriots are good. The city's a
• 13:48
  Speaker 3: lot more fun.
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: Whatever.
• 13:49
  Speaker 3: Go Patriots, Go, Panthers, Jags, Go get Quinn Williams and
• 13:53
  Speaker 3: Jacoby Myers and I'll have a good day. I'll go
• 13:54
  Speaker 3: buy a lottery ticket. I'm going to a nice dinner tonight.
• 13:56
  Speaker 3: I'll wear some high heels. I'll make it sexy for you.
• 14:00
  Speaker 4: Do it.
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: For the love of God, please go get Quinn Williams.
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: All reasons to be in the camp of Kendri Middleton today.
• 14:07
  Speaker 4: Stucky, what about you?
• 14:09
  Speaker 5: I mean my Ravens Like so, they traded Jai Year,
• 14:11
  Speaker 5: Free Upsimore cap Room the one. Now they're fully healthy
• 14:15
  Speaker 5: on offense, arguably the best offense in the league now,
• 14:19
  Speaker 5: and especially as Lamar gets healthier and healthier. The defense
• 14:23
  Speaker 5: still top three. Secondary. You got Roquebon back healthy, the
• 14:29
  Speaker 5: biggest glaring weakness on the team by a million miles
• 14:32
  Speaker 5: is the defensive line because of the injuries and because
• 14:34
  Speaker 5: of the loss of Matabuke. So I want to see
• 14:37
  Speaker 5: edc to cost to go out and get I mean
• 14:41
  Speaker 5: the dream would be like the dream even I mean
• 14:46
  Speaker 5: that a realistic dream. I don't know if they would
• 14:49
  Speaker 5: sell him, but Dexter Lawrence if they made a big
• 14:53
  Speaker 5: splash trade for Dexter Lawrence.
• 14:56
  Speaker 3: You're not worried about the production that he's had this
• 14:58
  Speaker 3: year though, because a lot of people on like you know,
• 15:00
  Speaker 3: the big mainstream stuff have been bitching at him.
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: But I love sexy DEXI.
• 15:04
  Speaker 5: Oh, he's still one of the best in the league.
• 15:06
  Speaker 5: And then you get him into a like a winning
• 15:10
  Speaker 5: culture and a win a winning team, I think you'll
• 15:13
  Speaker 5: you'll get a.
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: I don't think Giants will let him go.
• 15:16
  Speaker 5: Though, depends on the price. Every everyone has a everyone
• 15:20
  Speaker 5: has a price for anything.
• 15:21
  Speaker 4: So like solid debass reference right there.
• 15:24
  Speaker 5: Yeah, the so like depends like the Giants need to
• 15:27
  Speaker 5: build for the future so that they think that they
• 15:30
  Speaker 5: have Dark Dart, they think they have their franchise quarterback,
• 15:34
  Speaker 5: so you know, getting rid of some big contracts, getting
• 15:39
  Speaker 5: some draft picks and then building up that youth could
• 15:43
  Speaker 5: be the direction that they take. But the Giants are
• 15:47
  Speaker 5: in a weird place. Like what it now that they
• 15:50
  Speaker 5: think they found their quarterback with Dart does that mean
• 15:52
  Speaker 5: Dable stays and sticks around?
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: So I don't know what I WoT you give them.
• 15:58
  Speaker 5: I have no idea. That's not my specialty. But like
• 16:00
  Speaker 5: you could, I have no I have no clue, Like
• 16:03
  Speaker 5: the right comp of draft picks would be. It wouldn't
• 16:05
  Speaker 5: be players, it would just be draft picks.
• 16:06
  Speaker 4: And then all that stuff is so contract dependent too.
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: I just I don't know.
• 16:11
  Speaker 3: I mean, we don't even have to talk about who
• 16:12
  Speaker 3: or what. But it's more so just like I don't
• 16:14
  Speaker 3: think you're gonna deal a trade like that the team
• 16:16
  Speaker 3: dealing with so many injuries without giving them bodies.
• 16:19
  Speaker 5: Maybe, But the Giants' issues aren't on the defensive line,
• 16:22
  Speaker 5: like they have.
• 16:22
  Speaker 3: Depth there no I know, but they need but it.
• 16:25
  Speaker 5: Doesn't have to They could throw someone in that's someone.
• 16:28
  Speaker 3: That's yeah, I was gonna say, it doesn't have to
• 16:30
  Speaker 3: be like on the defensive line.
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: They just need to carry someone.
• 16:32
  Speaker 5: In the secondary. That's there's there's options, but that's regardless
• 16:37
  Speaker 5: I just want to see the Ravens go get defensive
• 16:40
  Speaker 5: line help because if they do, I think in five weeks,
• 16:46
  Speaker 5: because I think they're probably gonna go four and one
• 16:47
  Speaker 5: or five and oh over the next five games. People
• 16:52
  Speaker 5: are most people are gonna have them power rated number
• 16:56
  Speaker 5: one in the league again. But they have to address
• 16:59
  Speaker 5: to this line because there's still a little vulnerable against
• 17:02
  Speaker 5: the run because of it, and they also can't generate
• 17:06
  Speaker 5: pressure right now because of it. So it's hurting them
• 17:10
  Speaker 5: on multiple fronts. And it's really like it's ultimately what
• 17:15
  Speaker 5: would hold them back if they do end up making
• 17:18
  Speaker 5: the playoffs, because I mean, right now, their defensive line
• 17:22
  Speaker 5: with Washington Ladabuque and you know, I mean others on
• 17:26
  Speaker 5: IR they trade it all away. It's Travis Jones, John Jenkins,
• 17:30
  Speaker 5: and Brent Herban as your starters, like Peebles as your backup.
• 17:33
  Speaker 5: Like that's not going to get it done up front.
• 17:37
  Speaker 5: So that is what I'm watching by far. The Ravens
• 17:41
  Speaker 5: need to get help there.
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: I have a fun one that I think is going
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: to make most people that are listening throw up in
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: their mouths because I think a lot of people are
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: overseeing the Kansas City Chiefs win, but that team for
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: years has needed a solid running back stop relying on
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: old man in Kareem Hunt or below average Isaiah Pacheco.
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: There are two teams in the AFC East that should
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: be sellers right now, the Jets and the Dolphins, and
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: both of them have sub elite running backs Devon h
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: Chan Breeze Hall. I would love to see Kansas City
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: make a move on a.
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: Guy was gonna move all year. I've been saying this, Yeah.
• 18:25
  Speaker 4: Got to do it.
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: They've just lying on these shitty running backs for years.
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: Now give my homes some.
• 18:30
  Speaker 5: He I'm curious to see what. Yeah, Like, I'm curious
• 18:40
  Speaker 5: to the things I'm most curious about. Is Hendrickson gonna move?
• 18:45
  Speaker 5: I mean, if you're the Bengals.
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: Like, well, they already made a move today.
• 18:49
  Speaker 5: I know they traded Logan Wilson, but he's already benched.
• 18:51
  Speaker 5: But like only Jerry Jones could find the diamond and
• 18:56
  Speaker 5: there off the bench linebacker on one of the worst
• 18:58
  Speaker 5: defenses in the issue of the league. So yeah, dude,
• 19:03
  Speaker 5: does Hendrickson get moved because he could provide a major
• 19:06
  Speaker 5: boost for some team that really needs an edge rush
• 19:08
  Speaker 5: and like just giving up yeah, I mean, like the
• 19:12
  Speaker 5: deep what is there, Like even with Hendrickson, they're still
• 19:14
  Speaker 5: like the worst defense in the league. Like it just
• 19:16
  Speaker 5: they need picks, and although they.
• 19:17
  Speaker 3: Can't draft, that's well, my whole thing is that, like
• 19:20
  Speaker 3: we saw what Joe Burrow did last year and kind
• 19:22
  Speaker 3: of in a similar situation.
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: He came out and was just an.
• 19:25
  Speaker 3: Absolute gun slinger almost you know, had them a like
• 19:29
  Speaker 3: comeback story for the Ages at the end of last year,
• 19:32
  Speaker 3: and I think that they're probably hoping for that again.
• 19:34
  Speaker 5: I mean, but it's how much different gonna look like
• 19:36
  Speaker 5: they're They had Hendrickson last year played at all pro level
• 19:40
  Speaker 5: this year, I mean, Flacco just threw for five hundred
• 19:42
  Speaker 5: yards and they lost to the Bears at home, like
• 19:44
  Speaker 5: and they continue.
• 19:47
  Speaker 4: I'm with you, just.
• 19:48
  Speaker 5: They can't win anything with this defense. But then again,
• 19:50
  Speaker 5: like you have Burrow under contract and Chase and Higgins,
• 19:52
  Speaker 5: like the Bengals are just they're a horrendously run organization
• 19:57
  Speaker 5: and the main reason, and their owner is terrible, the
• 20:00
  Speaker 5: reason is they cannot draft. Go back and look, i
• 20:03
  Speaker 5: mean Barrow fell into their laps. They've had a couple
• 20:06
  Speaker 5: offensive players just fall into their laps. But go look
• 20:08
  Speaker 5: at their offensive line draft picks, their defensive draft picks.
• 20:12
  Speaker 5: They've all been complete disasters. That's top down organization, down
• 20:15
  Speaker 5: at the scouting and it's it's it's all a dumpster fire.
• 20:18
  Speaker 5: The teams that I think are going to sell that,
• 20:20
  Speaker 5: And you want to be careful about betting these teams
• 20:22
  Speaker 5: on this week, in particular early in the week. By
• 20:24
  Speaker 5: the time you're listening to this, you'll have most of
• 20:26
  Speaker 5: the news. But just keep this in mind in the future.
• 20:28
  Speaker 5: But the Saints are probably up there. You know, you
• 20:32
  Speaker 5: could see guys like a Lave Shaheed, maybe some defenders
• 20:39
  Speaker 5: get moved. I would imagine the Dolphins are in like
• 20:43
  Speaker 5: we already saw Phillips move, GM gone interim like fire
• 20:49
  Speaker 5: sale mode.
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: Just think Wattle will go what's that you think will
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: go for.
• 20:55
  Speaker 5: The right price? Sure, I think that they're they they
• 20:59
  Speaker 5: they trade anyone on the roster right now.
• 21:01
  Speaker 4: Including to us. I think that you're not gonna.
• 21:04
  Speaker 5: Get anyone for two. Someone's gonna take that contract.
• 21:07
  Speaker 4: No, hear me out. Hear me out.
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: Obviously you're not going to trade to it and get
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: something for him. But if you pair him with I
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: think they'd have to trade him with something like a
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: second round pick, just to have a team that feels
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: like they can revive his career, take on the contract.
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: I do think that's something that they will maybe not now,
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: I don't know they ever explore.
• 21:27
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I I just don't know how if you're any
• 21:32
  Speaker 5: serious team. So, I mean there are some unseerious teams.
• 21:35
  Speaker 5: I mean, what what is too has a four He
• 21:36
  Speaker 5: has a four year, two hundred and fifteen million dollar contract,
• 21:40
  Speaker 5: and so.
• 21:41
  Speaker 4: You're gonna have to pay somebody to take it.
• 21:43
  Speaker 5: But the other thing is like taking that on with
• 21:46
  Speaker 5: his when you his career could end it any in
• 21:49
  Speaker 5: any game, like with his concussion issues too, Like you
• 21:51
  Speaker 5: got to keep that in mind. So, but yeah, I
• 21:55
  Speaker 5: think the Dolphins are in complete fire sale mode. I'm
• 21:58
  Speaker 5: curious to see what the Jets do because they're definitely
• 22:01
  Speaker 5: a Kennedy so and in the Browns obviously Browns are
• 22:07
  Speaker 5: in in trade mode.
• 22:10
  Speaker 3: So I hope Miles I hope Miles Garrett goes. That'd
• 22:13
  Speaker 3: be so good for him.
• 22:14
  Speaker 5: I don't think he's they'd they'd ever trade him. He's
• 22:17
  Speaker 5: like the face of the city.
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: Craviat if it makes you feel any better. The Jags
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: did get Rid of that.
• 22:23
  Speaker 3: Nick Foles contract, so maybe they can get rid of
• 22:25
  Speaker 3: to us.
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: Hey, any anything is possible, Like Stuck, he said, it's
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: it's all about the price.
• 22:32
  Speaker 4: If you pay tidy to do it, they might just
• 22:34
  Speaker 4: take it.
• 22:36
  Speaker 5: Trade Jeffrey Simmons is a like he is. If the
• 22:41
  Speaker 5: Raid's got Jeffrey Simmons, Oh man, I would you'd see
• 22:46
  Speaker 5: me streaking down my street. You'd see me actually leave
• 22:48
  Speaker 5: my house in November.
• 22:50
  Speaker 3: This is from from the production Oh my god, Jacksonville
• 22:52
  Speaker 3: Jaguars trading for Jacoby Myers.
• 22:54
  Speaker 4: Is that? Is that an opinion or is that news?
• 22:56
  Speaker 4: I'm trying to know it's news.
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: Adam Schefter two minutes ago.
• 22:58
  Speaker 5: Oh yeah, we're gonna start to get news in the
• 23:01
  Speaker 5: next couple of hours. I think what is the deadline
• 23:03
  Speaker 5: to Eastern n Myers? That's a good get. Yeah, I
• 23:09
  Speaker 5: didn't mentioned the Raiders, four and six, the Bronco, the
• 23:13
  Speaker 5: Lucky Broncos. How many more breaks they're gonna get? They
• 23:15
  Speaker 5: get the Raiders after OT on a short weekend while
• 23:18
  Speaker 5: they're selling their team off. There's you know what's an
• 23:23
  Speaker 5: interesting one is do the Chargers try to like they're
• 23:27
  Speaker 5: in this and now with Joe Ald out for the year,
• 23:31
  Speaker 5: like they cannot win the Super Bowl with the state
• 23:35
  Speaker 5: of their offensive line. So do they just say, like,
• 23:40
  Speaker 5: we'll get our tackles back next year and really go
• 23:43
  Speaker 5: after plug some of the holes we have, or do
• 23:45
  Speaker 5: they say, you know, we're in this a FC race,
• 23:49
  Speaker 5: let's go get tackle help.
• 23:52
  Speaker 4: But the.
• 23:54
  Speaker 5: Coming back, so it makes it tricky, like they're probably
• 23:57
  Speaker 5: coming back.
• 23:59
  Speaker 4: They're coming back this year. All was placed on the
• 24:01
  Speaker 4: IR No, I think they're out for the year.
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: Okay, then they should probably make a move. They're as
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: good as.
• 24:10
  Speaker 5: Because tackles are expensive and you already have you know,
• 24:12
  Speaker 5: two potential All pro so you can't like go get
• 24:17
  Speaker 5: a premium tackle, but maybe you can add a vet.
• 24:20
  Speaker 5: But yeah, Slater torrest, Pateller tendency, he's out for the year.
• 24:23
  Speaker 5: And I believe Joe All was just ruled out of
• 24:28
  Speaker 5: the season. Let me say, uh, yeah, he's he's gonna
• 24:32
  Speaker 5: have a season ending surgery high ankle injury, which is
• 24:34
  Speaker 5: so unfortunate, Like you see the difference between him and
• 24:36
  Speaker 5: there and him out of there by the way. Something
• 24:38
  Speaker 5: i'lso keep in mind, just while it's on my mind.
• 24:41
  Speaker 5: If you're looking at NFL lines. This week. One of
• 24:43
  Speaker 5: the trickiest games on the entire board is Lions commanders.
• 24:47
  Speaker 5: You have Luvu suspended, now you have all the Washington
• 24:49
  Speaker 5: defensive injuries. I don't know mclaurin's status. You're gonna Marriot
• 24:52
  Speaker 5: to starting, but the Lions could they had they just
• 24:56
  Speaker 5: placed their Mahogany on ir, they might be without Sewell
• 25:01
  Speaker 5: and Decker. So I don't know who wins that matchup
• 25:05
  Speaker 5: of the Washington The biggest pillow fight of the weekend,
• 25:08
  Speaker 5: the Washington backup defensive lines versus the Lions backup offensive line,
• 25:11
  Speaker 5: because if they're without their tackles and one of their guards, like,
• 25:15
  Speaker 5: it's ugly. And the Lions offense the way, people aren't
• 25:19
  Speaker 5: talking about this enough. Lions offense since October first, twenty
• 25:24
  Speaker 5: fourth in success rate, eighteenth in EPA per play, twenty
• 25:30
  Speaker 5: ninth in rush success rate. You know it's number one
• 25:33
  Speaker 5: over that span, Chicago Bears. So the only team's rushing
• 25:37
  Speaker 5: it worse right now, and it's barely than the Lions
• 25:41
  Speaker 5: since October first, And by the way, they played the
• 25:43
  Speaker 5: Bengals over that stretch, So that the Bears are the Texans,
• 25:47
  Speaker 5: the Browns and the Saints I believe maybe the Raiders
• 25:55
  Speaker 5: up there, but it's been bad. The offense is not
• 25:57
  Speaker 5: what is that. It's the loss of Ben Johnson and
• 26:01
  Speaker 5: the offensive line. You saw that against Minnesota. Talked about
• 26:04
  Speaker 5: this last week, but the offensive line, and you know
• 26:07
  Speaker 5: Decker hasn't been healthy. The interior is worse, and now
• 26:09
  Speaker 5: you have the backup to Maogany is horrendous. But if
• 26:13
  Speaker 5: you were at Soul, you know, one of the two
• 26:15
  Speaker 5: best tackles. I don't know how that happens with that
• 26:18
  Speaker 5: Washington game, is uh, that's a crazy one.
• 26:22
  Speaker 4: So well, we happened.
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: We happen to have a pick on that later on
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: in the episode, and we'll get to that momentarily. Someone
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: in on the chat here internally said Jacoby Meers, not
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: Jerry Rice, So just keep that in mind. I mean,
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: they need Are you still processing this? This is a
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: big move for your team.
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: I'm honestly not sweating it at all.
• 26:45
  Speaker 3: I get that he's on an expiring contract and giving
• 26:47
  Speaker 3: up a fourth for him sounds insane, But they have
• 26:49
  Speaker 3: two fourth round picks. It's going to be the higher
• 26:52
  Speaker 3: of the fourth round pick. They have so many sixth
• 26:54
  Speaker 3: round picks it's actually disgusting, Like, what the hell are
• 26:57
  Speaker 3: we going to do with all of them? Anyway, it
• 26:58
  Speaker 3: sounds to me like this is pro probably a move
• 27:00
  Speaker 3: because they're either going to trade BTJ or Hunters out
• 27:03
  Speaker 3: for the season.
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: In Gladstone's we trust, here we go.
• 27:07
  Speaker 3: I'm glad they're doing something and they're not just sitting
• 27:09
  Speaker 3: here and being passive.
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: I'll take it. I don't care f them picks. Let's
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: do all we ride.
• 27:14
  Speaker 4: We were about to get to some picks ourselves.
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: The sports betting Variety, We're gonna take a look at
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: Thursday Night football first between the Raiders and the Broncos.
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: But first a word from our very own Kendres. We
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: chat about our great friends at DraftKings.
• 27:27
  Speaker 3: The Favorites podcast has teamed up with DraftKings sportsbook, where
• 27:31
  Speaker 3: new customers can bet five dollars and get three hundred
• 27:34
  Speaker 3: back in bonus bets if your bet wins and three
• 27:37
  Speaker 3: months of NBA.
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: League Pass to get started.
• 27:39
  Speaker 3: Use promo code of Favorites when signing up with DraftKings. Again,
• 27:42
  Speaker 3: use Code Favorites when signing up and bet five bucks
• 27:45
  Speaker 3: to get three hundred back and bonus bets if your
• 27:47
  Speaker 3: bet wins plus three months of VA League pass.
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: The crown is yours.
• 27:51
  Speaker 4: Thursday Night Football Raiders at Broncos.
• 27:55
  Speaker 5: Thursday Night Football.
• 27:56
  Speaker 4: Broncos favored by nine and a half.
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: At Denver Broncos.
• 28:02
  Speaker 4: Then it went to eight and a half, then they
• 28:04
  Speaker 4: were back up to nine and a half. This morning.
• 28:06
  Speaker 4: Now it was back to eight and a half.
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: And we continue to play ping pong with this spread
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: over under sitting at forty two and a half.
• 28:14
  Speaker 4: Settled at forty two and a half.
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: Denver is going to their throwbacks on Thursday, so factor
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: that into the spread as you.
• 28:21
  Speaker 4: Wish, because those are some pretty sweet threads.
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: Matter a half.
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: I'm yeah, I look good, feel good, play good. I
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: love these teams that have these killer throwbacks. They always
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: seem to play up as silly as it sounds, but
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: the numbers actually back it up. They are three and
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: zero in this uniform combination since twenty twenty four, so
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: there's something to that. Broncos eight straight outright wins at home,
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: the Raiders off of an overtime loss to the Jaguars,
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: and on top of that, Las Vegas struggles to move
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: the ball twenty sixth in yards per play. Well, Denver's
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: defense is first in the league in yards per play allowed,
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: So should be a terrible matchup for the Raiders. With
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: all that give me Las Vegas in a divisional game
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: in prime time, I think we get a good, solid
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: effort here. I could go into more specifics, but I'll
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: let you guys dig into this one. I mean, it's
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: a market read as much as anything else. Every time
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: this number gets up to nine and a half, it
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: gets bought back down. So if you can get the
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: nine or nine and a half on the Raiders, I
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: feel like by the time we get to kick off,
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: there's gonna be some good CLV on that number.
• 29:29
  Speaker 4: Stucky, how do you see it?
• 29:31
  Speaker 5: I wouldn't bet this right now. I mean because you
• 29:33
  Speaker 5: got to see that the Raiders are selling right now,
• 29:36
  Speaker 5: so who knows who else they might move. Plus you're
• 29:40
  Speaker 5: kind of in a dead zone, you know, like getting
• 29:44
  Speaker 5: getting the getting above a nine. Who cares now that
• 29:47
  Speaker 5: I said it will nine? But and so the other
• 29:52
  Speaker 5: thing that I'm really worried about is the Raiders were
• 29:54
  Speaker 5: on the field. They're defensive on the field for forty
• 29:56
  Speaker 5: three minutes only the Saints were on the field more.
• 30:00
  Speaker 5: They had a bottom fifteen time of possession game in
• 30:02
  Speaker 5: the history of the NFL, the Raiders were just right
• 30:04
  Speaker 5: there because they went overtime, they played every possible minute.
• 30:07
  Speaker 5: Teams on a short week after overtime playing on Thursday
• 30:09
  Speaker 5: or Friday are six and twenty five against the spread,
• 30:13
  Speaker 5: six and twenty five all time, and they're failing to
• 30:17
  Speaker 5: cover by about six points per game. I believe it,
• 30:18
  Speaker 5: three and fourteen against the spread on the road, ortal spot.
• 30:21
  Speaker 5: Now you're going to altitude as well. Having said that,
• 30:24
  Speaker 5: if I get a ten here, like, I don't know
• 30:26
  Speaker 5: how much that's worth, Like I make it worth like
• 30:28
  Speaker 5: a point and a half, which is substantial. Complete guess
• 30:32
  Speaker 5: on my part, I don't really know what it's worth,
• 30:34
  Speaker 5: but historically you can look back and it's definitely worth something.
• 30:36
  Speaker 5: And your defense is probably going to be a little gas.
• 30:40
  Speaker 5: But I mean, this Broncos offense is I'm not laying
• 30:43
  Speaker 5: it with Denver. I just would like to get a
• 30:45
  Speaker 5: ten here. I also would like to see who the
• 30:47
  Speaker 5: Raiders if they move anybody else. The Denver defense also
• 30:51
  Speaker 5: isn't the same without certain we saw that early against
• 30:54
  Speaker 5: Houston before Stroud got hurt. So yeah, if I can
• 30:58
  Speaker 5: get a ten, I'd be in interested if not that ten.
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: Isn't it doesn't look like the ten is coming because
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: every time this touches. I've been following this for the
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: last every time he touches.
• 31:08
  Speaker 5: You can still a bigger but you could still a
• 31:10
  Speaker 5: bigger money come in later in the week and and
• 31:12
  Speaker 5: uh and the.
• 31:14
  Speaker 4: Crazy moves then that would be problematic.
• 31:16
  Speaker 5: Raiders could also move other guys. But this the spot
• 31:21
  Speaker 5: is really really bad for the Raiders. And like I
• 31:24
  Speaker 5: said before, bow Knicks does look good when he plays
• 31:27
  Speaker 5: you know, bottom tier defenses, and they did look.
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: Like three quarters last week.
• 31:32
  Speaker 5: Yeah, but he's playing a good defense. If you look
• 31:34
  Speaker 5: at bo Nick's numbers against any competent defense, especially elite defense,
• 31:39
  Speaker 5: he's among the worst quarterbacks in the league. Like I'm
• 31:41
  Speaker 5: like bottom bottom tier whenever he faces a really good defense,
• 31:45
  Speaker 5: but against the worst defenses. I think if you look
• 31:48
  Speaker 5: at all of his e p A this year, like
• 31:50
  Speaker 5: all all of his positives, it all came against the Bengals,
• 31:55
  Speaker 5: the Cowboys, uh, and the Raiders are they're not as bad,
• 31:59
  Speaker 5: but they're not too far behind. So yeah, I need
• 32:04
  Speaker 5: a ten here, and I want to see I need
• 32:06
  Speaker 5: more info in the Raiders.
• 32:07
  Speaker 6: So I.
• 32:09
  Speaker 2: Think the Raiders.
• 32:10
  Speaker 3: I think the Raiders are definitely gonna make some serious moves.
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: They've got to be sellers. Gina sucks. They're gonna need
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: a quarterback.
• 32:17
  Speaker 3: I don't think that they're gonna hank far enough to
• 32:19
  Speaker 3: kind of beat out some of these other teams for
• 32:21
  Speaker 3: earlier picks. I could see Max Crosby being on the move.
• 32:25
  Speaker 3: My whole thing with this it feels like I said,
• 32:28
  Speaker 3: Bonix looked like a freakin idiot for three quarters last week,
• 32:32
  Speaker 3: and then in the fourth quarter it was like Bonus hour.
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: My thing is the Broncos in this spot.
• 32:37
  Speaker 3: Yes they're at home, but they feel like they're about
• 32:40
  Speaker 3: due for a loss, and a bad one.
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: It's a divisional game.
• 32:43
  Speaker 3: Divisional games are different anytime there's over at touched on
• 32:45
  Speaker 3: any divisional game in any other spot outside of the
• 32:48
  Speaker 3: trade deadline.
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: If this were Thursday and this number.
• 32:50
  Speaker 3: Was here, I'd probably be like, yeah, sure if this
• 32:52
  Speaker 3: team looks the same outside of Jacoby, yeah, Raiders. But
• 32:54
  Speaker 3: the thing is is that we don't know what it's
• 32:57
  Speaker 3: going to look like. I don't want to bet on
• 32:58
  Speaker 3: a team that I don't know what's gonna look like
• 33:00
  Speaker 3: two days from now, let alone a couple hours from now.
• 33:02
  Speaker 3: But the Raiders look like they're due for a win.
• 33:04
  Speaker 3: Broncos look like they're due for a loss. I hate
• 33:06
  Speaker 3: that it's a divisional game, and I don't know what
• 33:08
  Speaker 3: the Raiders are going to look like in a couple
• 33:09
  Speaker 3: of days.
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: So for me right now, it's a pass.
• 33:12
  Speaker 3: If this were Thursday and everything was as is right now,
• 33:16
  Speaker 3: I would probably get behind the Raiders. I just until
• 33:18
  Speaker 3: I have more information camp because it looks like the
• 33:20
  Speaker 3: Broncos are due for a loss.
• 33:22
  Speaker 5: Yeah, but fair enough. I will say, like you're watching
• 33:24
  Speaker 5: the market and like once it goes to nine and
• 33:26
  Speaker 5: a half, it's come back to nine eight and a
• 33:28
  Speaker 5: half dripping up. Some of that is like you know
• 33:31
  Speaker 5: some big, some bigger money will take that buy a
• 33:35
  Speaker 5: cheap or a little expense of ten, so they don't
• 33:38
  Speaker 5: want it to get there. But then also when you
• 33:40
  Speaker 5: come down to eight and a half, you're gonna have
• 33:41
  Speaker 5: people teasing the Broncos, so it's probably gonna float.
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: This did open at ten to that point, and we
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: have not seen that ten pop back.
• 33:51
  Speaker 5: But you're at nine and a half now nine and
• 33:53
  Speaker 5: a half or nine. There's no harm in waiting because
• 33:58
  Speaker 5: this isn't going to go to seven. It's not going
• 34:00
  Speaker 5: to go to eight. Most likely it's not gonna go
• 34:02
  Speaker 5: to seven and a half, So I shouldn't say it's
• 34:07
  Speaker 5: not I don't think it is. So like if you
• 34:12
  Speaker 5: lock in nine, nine and a half and then it
• 34:15
  Speaker 5: goes to ten, you missed out on a secondary key
• 34:18
  Speaker 5: number if it never gets there, and say you have
• 34:22
  Speaker 5: to bet nine instead of nine and a half, Like
• 34:25
  Speaker 5: the percentage of games that land on nine in the
• 34:31
  Speaker 5: NFL heaven Uh.
• 34:33
  Speaker 4: It's not so much about landing on nine, it's the eight.
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: At this point, especially with the prominence of the two
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: point conversion, is becoming more key. I don't want I
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: want to be on the raiders and if this land,
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: if the number settles on eight, I'm gonna be I
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: would have been pissed that I didn't get the nine
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: or the nine and a half.
• 34:51
  Speaker 4: That's where I'm at on this.
• 34:52
  Speaker 5: I think it's worth it more to wait in this situation.
• 34:56
  Speaker 5: But I'm mainly giving higher commentary right to uh, more
• 35:02
  Speaker 5: general commentary to anyone listening. That's kind of new beginning,
• 35:06
  Speaker 5: like when you're around those key numbers, Like I'll pull
• 35:08
  Speaker 5: up a couple of games this week that I'm watching, like,
• 35:13
  Speaker 5: for example, Seattle Arizona, Like I want to bet Arizona
• 35:16
  Speaker 5: seven is obviously a key. I'm gonna sit and wait
• 35:20
  Speaker 5: for as long as I possibly can. You can go
• 35:23
  Speaker 5: to the action app and you can put a notification
• 35:25
  Speaker 5: on your good notification whenever it moves.
• 35:27
  Speaker 4: Uh.
• 35:28
  Speaker 5: And that way you don't have to sit in front
• 35:29
  Speaker 5: of an odd screen and watch and what else here.
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: Great shout for the action app.
• 35:39
  Speaker 4: Likescause that's why.
• 35:43
  Speaker 5: Like eight and a half. Sometimes you'll see some books,
• 35:45
  Speaker 5: we'll move that up to prevent teasers, like I'm sure
• 35:47
  Speaker 5: a lot of people want to tease the Broncos down,
• 35:50
  Speaker 5: and then when it gets to there's probably some sharper money,
• 35:54
  Speaker 5: some numbers guys that want to bet that would love
• 35:56
  Speaker 5: to have the Raiders that have a reasonable ten. So
• 36:02
  Speaker 5: as a result, you're going to see some back and
• 36:05
  Speaker 5: forth here and then we'll see what the Raiders do.
• 36:07
  Speaker 5: But yeah, you can get a cheap eight and a
• 36:10
  Speaker 5: half on the Raiders at DraftKings right now. So I'm
• 36:13
  Speaker 5: not saying you're wrong, I'm just explaining the thinking.
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: And we got a nice little nugget here in the
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: in the back end of the chat last five years,
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: twenty five games have fallen on nine. Fifty four have
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: fallen on eight, sixty two I have fallen on ten.
• 36:31
  Speaker 5: Yeah, nine, you're rarely so I think we're going.
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: To play this game too with Monday Night Football. We'll
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: get to that in a second.
• 36:37
  Speaker 4: Time.
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: To plant our flag for Week ten, presented by DraftKings,
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: the crown is yours.
• 36:46
  Speaker 5: It Shut up, I'm trying to plant my flag here.
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: Okay, you're really planning your flag in that deck, Tendra,
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: who will you be planting your flag on for Week ten?
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: As we look to stay hot this week on the favorites,
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: I got.
• 36:59
  Speaker 3: A rock with the line probably my favorite game of
• 37:01
  Speaker 3: the week.
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: I already bet it.
• 37:02
  Speaker 3: Bet it last night. If you follow us on action,
• 37:04
  Speaker 3: you definitely got that notification. The Commanders are a bad team.
• 37:07
  Speaker 3: They've lost by a lot of points for a lot
• 37:09
  Speaker 3: of weeks now. They lost to the Seahawks thirty eight
• 37:11
  Speaker 3: fourteen obviously, Chiefs twenty eight to seven, the Cowboys forty
• 37:15
  Speaker 3: four to twenty two. Staydon Daniels is probably gonna miss
• 37:18
  Speaker 3: the rest of the season. I don't care what the
• 37:19
  Speaker 3: X rays said. There's no way in hell he comes
• 37:21
  Speaker 3: back from that. Did you guys watch what happened his arm?
• 37:23
  Speaker 3: Like in slow motion?
• 37:24
  Speaker 4: That was pretty great?
• 37:25
  Speaker 3: Like gross, the fact that the I get that the
• 37:28
  Speaker 3: you know, is it an MRI that they're gonna do
• 37:30
  Speaker 3: that's gonna show all the structural damage whatever, there's no
• 37:33
  Speaker 3: way that that X ray is honest and truthful and
• 37:36
  Speaker 3: too No, I don't believe it feels like a good
• 37:39
  Speaker 3: spot for the Lions. They need a good bounce back game.
• 37:42
  Speaker 3: Commander is a good easy team to beat up on
• 37:44
  Speaker 3: and they let up points.
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: Stuck you what about you? It is your plant the
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: flag game this week?
• 37:48
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I can't get there on the line. I mean,
• 37:49
  Speaker 5: like like the lines in order to lay in a half,
• 37:52
  Speaker 5: I'd have to make them like eleven points better than
• 37:55
  Speaker 5: the Commanders. And the Lions might not have they might
• 37:57
  Speaker 5: not have any offensive line. And like I just said,
• 37:59
  Speaker 5: they've been a bottom ten offense, bottom ten offense in
• 38:02
  Speaker 5: the month since over June weeks five and nine. In
• 38:05
  Speaker 5: October first it is not working. And like everyone, I
• 38:09
  Speaker 5: think the Lions are the most overrated team in the
• 38:11
  Speaker 5: league right now. Like you look, look at last week.
• 38:13
  Speaker 5: I don't know, they were minus dying at home against
• 38:15
  Speaker 5: the Vikings. I can say that because I bet the
• 38:17
  Speaker 5: Vikings and they lost outright the JJ McCarthy. They never
• 38:23
  Speaker 5: lose those games coming out of a bye at home
• 38:25
  Speaker 5: with Jared Goff who owned the Vikings. It's not the same.
• 38:28
  Speaker 5: And now they might be without school, they might be
• 38:31
  Speaker 5: without Decker, They're already without a guard. I don't think
• 38:33
  Speaker 5: the defense is any good. Like what result this year,
• 38:36
  Speaker 5: Like they beat the Ravens, like that beat up Ravens defense.
• 38:40
  Speaker 5: They had a really good game plan against Lamar. But
• 38:42
  Speaker 5: other than that, like their best result is they beat
• 38:44
  Speaker 5: the all the backups on the Bucks like that's I
• 38:48
  Speaker 5: think the lines are extremely orated. But like Washington's a mess,
• 38:51
  Speaker 5: Like there's a lot of injuries on defense. I don't
• 38:52
  Speaker 5: know McLain's gonna play. You're gonna Mariota lou who suspended too, Like,
• 38:56
  Speaker 5: so I just can't get that to that number.
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: I don't know. They beat your Ravens by eight.
• 39:02
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean they could cover, but I just can't
• 39:05
  Speaker 5: get to that number. I'll say I'm gonna play my
• 39:07
  Speaker 5: flag on the Packers minus two and a half at
• 39:09
  Speaker 5: home against the Eagles. I think we're getting under three
• 39:12
  Speaker 5: because of last week flukey game and weather, the Packers
• 39:15
  Speaker 5: didn't punt once. Jordan Love still second EPA per play
• 39:20
  Speaker 5: among all quarterbacks behind Darnold. They just got too conservative
• 39:24
  Speaker 5: last week. Their special teams have been an issue. I
• 39:26
  Speaker 5: think you see them get more aggressive here this week.
• 39:28
  Speaker 5: I am not a believer in this Eagles team. Maybe
• 39:31
  Speaker 5: they come out of out of the by and look
• 39:33
  Speaker 5: a lot better. But they beat the basically the practice
• 39:37
  Speaker 5: squad of the Giants. But before then they should have
• 39:40
  Speaker 5: lost that Minnesota I think our luck rankings had that
• 39:43
  Speaker 5: as a seven point loss. The Vikings just couldn't score
• 39:46
  Speaker 5: in the red zone. They got blown out against the Giants.
• 39:49
  Speaker 5: They let bo Nicks come back and beat them. You
• 39:52
  Speaker 5: know they they like they should have lost to the Rams,
• 39:55
  Speaker 5: they should have lost to the Chiefs. They only beat
• 39:57
  Speaker 5: the Cowboys at home. Like this has not been impressive.
• 40:00
  Speaker 5: Is a team that still leads the league in three
• 40:02
  Speaker 5: and outright. I think the Packer's gonna be able to
• 40:05
  Speaker 5: get pressure. I still love this Green Day offense. I
• 40:08
  Speaker 5: think this Philly defense is way down this year. I
• 40:12
  Speaker 5: still I still think the Packers the best team in
• 40:14
  Speaker 5: the NFC. I'm getting them under a field go at home.
• 40:19
  Speaker 5: You bet taking it Packers minus two and a half draftings.
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: Right, I think that's crazy head to head bets.
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: My play at the Flag game is the Philadelphia Eagles
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: plus the two and a half I gotta.
• 40:29
  Speaker 5: Add to the Packers. Now, I'm gonna I want some cheese.
• 40:33
  Speaker 5: I want some cheese. Ship we're head to head.
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: I can't believe we're doing that.
• 40:39
  Speaker 5: Yeah, let's let's bet for some cheese. I'll send you
• 40:41
  Speaker 5: some really good cheese.
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: Wheel of cheese.
• 40:44
  Speaker 4: Yeah, okay, this one's for a wheel of cheese. I'm
• 40:46
  Speaker 4: good with that. But you know what when I win crazy?
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: When I win, I'm gonna I'm gonna melt my cheese
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: on a Philadelphia cheese steak right here. I have this,
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: So my my power rating has the Packers minus one.
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: That's not even accounting for the Tucker Craft injury. The
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: Packers offense kind of runs through him, and I'm not
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: exactly sure what he's worth to the spread, but it's
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: got to be at least half a point. So then
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: that would bump it down to Packers at nearly a pick.
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: And I'm getting plus two and a half on Philadelphia
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: off of a bye. I can't trust Jordan Love week
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: to week. I never know what version of him is
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: going to show up. How he's out here making moves too.
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: So if we're talking about bumping down the bad teams
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: that are gonna sell, can we bump up a team
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: that we know is going to be aggressive as they
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: already have? The Packers the only team in the NFL
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: this season also that have lost two games in which
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: they were a touchdown favorite two times to be.
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: Bad teams just have the Packers. Well, that's poort number.
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: That is definitely part of it. Matt Lafleur and Jordan
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: Love cannot be trusted as big favorites, and that's not
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: the case here. But the overall point that I wanted
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: to make to punctuate that is that if we're going
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: to make a statement stucky like we are overrating the
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: Detroit Lions, we've got to say that about the Green
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: Bay Packers at this point.
• 42:09
  Speaker 5: The Packers who blew out the lines.
• 42:13
  Speaker 4: They are on.
• 42:14
  Speaker 3: The season total body lost to the Browns and the Panthers,
• 42:19
  Speaker 3: they're overrated.
• 42:20
  Speaker 5: I disagree. So we'll find out on Monday. You're watching
• 42:24
  Speaker 5: the market.
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: This block the team, block it if it closed, if
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: it closes it three, I'll bet the Eagles again.
• 42:33
  Speaker 5: Why would you bet the Eagles now plus two and
• 42:34
  Speaker 5: a half because I don't.
• 42:35
  Speaker 4: Think that I don't think the three is coming back.
• 42:37
  Speaker 5: But again, you don't think that, you don't know it's
• 42:40
  Speaker 5: limits get to go up.
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: During the notifications of the.
• 42:43
  Speaker 5: There's there's no reason to back plus two and a
• 42:46
  Speaker 5: half now because if this goes to three, it'spect the
• 42:49
  Speaker 5: biggest key number in all of the NFL. Like you're
• 42:53
  Speaker 5: you're giving up so much equity that ticks starts to
• 42:56
  Speaker 5: tick down to two.
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: If this goes back to three, I will I might
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: buy you. I'll buy you the cheese before I even
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: lose the bet. This one's not touching three.
• 43:06
  Speaker 5: But who cares if it does or doesn't, you might
• 43:08
  Speaker 5: as well. Wait it's my point, That's all I'm saying.
• 43:10
  Speaker 4: I mean two two is still key.
• 43:14
  Speaker 5: Also, it's nowhere close to three, Like it's not even
• 43:17
  Speaker 5: in the same stratosphere.
• 43:22
  Speaker 4: Three.
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: When my parents fight in front of me, king.
• 43:24
  Speaker 5: King, three is king if anyone missing out there just
• 43:26
  Speaker 5: no three is king in the NFL. If you have
• 43:31
  Speaker 5: your look, if you want a dog that's at two
• 43:32
  Speaker 5: and a half, wait, see if there's ever a three
• 43:36
  Speaker 5: that pumps.
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: But three is about fifteen percent of the time. Two
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: is roughly four and a half. So to that point,
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: at and lately it's it's got that that that has shrunk.
• 43:50
  Speaker 4: We're gonna get ahead of the market here.
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: All right, Let's go our play at the flag games
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: the Lions minus eight and a half for Kendra. We've
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: got a head to head bet the Packers minus two
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: and a half for Stucky, Eagles plus two and a
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: half for me. And now time for the main event.
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: No betting week can start without it. It's It's the primer.
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: Courtesy of Evan Abrams. Evan, Welcome to the show. Where
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: do you land on the dog fight? That is Eagles Packers?
• 44:22
  Speaker 7: So I had the Packers to win the Super Bowl
• 44:24
  Speaker 7: in the preseason. I feel like I felt good with
• 44:28
  Speaker 7: that pick up to the Panthers game, and I probably
• 44:31
  Speaker 7: would have felt good after the Panthers game if it
• 44:34
  Speaker 7: wasn't for the Craft injury. I feel like that makes
• 44:36
  Speaker 7: them a lot less versusile. So I think in this
• 44:39
  Speaker 7: game specifically, I will do exactly what Stucky says and
• 44:43
  Speaker 7: wait on the sidelines because if three comes, I think
• 44:46
  Speaker 7: Philly's the side. I don't think I could see myself
• 44:49
  Speaker 7: betting Green Bay after that injury and having to adjust
• 44:52
  Speaker 7: the offense so much. But it's gonna be a great game.
• 44:55
  Speaker 7: I mean that, plus Tampa Bay in New England. This
• 44:57
  Speaker 7: is like the best duo of games we've had in
• 44:59
  Speaker 7: a long time. I'm in the same.
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: Week, Yeah, and I'm excited that I'm this invested in
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: a Monday night football game. It feels like it's been
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: a while. Nice to get that standalone to end the week.
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: What are the trends that we need to be aware
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: of before we go firing away on the apps?
• 45:16
  Speaker 7: Just a few fun things off the bat here. So
• 45:19
  Speaker 7: Arizona last night obviously takes care of Dallas. NFC West
• 45:22
  Speaker 7: eighteen and seven now against the spread versus teams outside
• 45:26
  Speaker 7: of the NFC West this year, that's the best mark
• 45:29
  Speaker 7: through nine weeks for any.
• 45:30
  Speaker 5: Division since twenty twenty. So all four teams in the
• 45:33
  Speaker 5: NFC West.
• 45:34
  Speaker 7: Above five hundred this year, Seattle and the Rams at
• 45:38
  Speaker 7: the top of the NFL and ATS at the moment,
• 45:41
  Speaker 7: So some fun stuff going on out West. There only
• 45:43
  Speaker 7: division as well where all four teams are above five hundred.
• 45:46
  Speaker 6: ATS other than that, to me the lion stuff that
• 45:51
  Speaker 6: Kendrew was talking about, Like, you're gonna hear it everywhere,
• 45:53
  Speaker 6: but one uncovered twelve straight games after a loss since
• 45:58
  Speaker 6: November one.
• 45:59
  Speaker 7: Of twenty twenty two. That was the last time we
• 46:01
  Speaker 7: saw them lose after a loss. You're gonna hear it
• 46:03
  Speaker 7: everywhere this week. That is the longest streak and I'm
• 46:06
  Speaker 7: going through right now. I can find in a long
• 46:07
  Speaker 7: time for any team after a loss. So everyone thinks
• 46:10
  Speaker 7: it's automatic. The line kind of shows it, but that
• 46:14
  Speaker 7: is a streak. You will hear a lot of Yeah,
• 46:16
  Speaker 7: just like that.
• 46:16
  Speaker 5: Yeah, like last week more than last week, they were
• 46:19
  Speaker 5: eight to zer against the spread in their last eight
• 46:20
  Speaker 5: against the Vikings, they were like ten and one against
• 46:23
  Speaker 5: the spread after bye. This ain't the same lines team
• 46:26
  Speaker 5: telling you correct.
• 46:27
  Speaker 7: Yeah, And that's what everyone is going to make the
• 46:29
  Speaker 7: assumption of also action number percentages right now early week
• 46:34
  Speaker 7: seventy eight percent of tickets on Detroit, ninety eight percent
• 46:37
  Speaker 7: of the money. Like, everybody is going to just make
• 46:40
  Speaker 7: the assumption on Detroit this week.
• 46:42
  Speaker 5: So we will see there.
• 46:43
  Speaker 7: The other one, if you're just gonna look at the board,
• 46:46
  Speaker 7: Carolina min is five and a half, pretty funny, it's
• 46:48
  Speaker 7: their biggest game favorite since twenty twenty one. They've lost
• 46:52
  Speaker 7: ten straight as a favorite as well, So we will
• 46:55
  Speaker 7: see how that goes for them against the lonely.
• 46:57
  Speaker 5: Saints, and Saints might be traders sellers, as we said, correct,
• 47:01
  Speaker 5: they could be, they might go higher.
• 47:03
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 47:03
  Speaker 8: Yeah.
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: One of the other things that I am betting against
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: here is I do think there's gonna be some market
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: sentiment on Okay, the Packers lost as big underdogs, this
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: is a bounce back opportunity, I would I would think,
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: let me be very clear about transparent. I think the
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: Eagles are going to have a high percentage of the
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: bets this week. But I do think there's going to
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: be a line of thinking for Packers backers that because
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: they were such a big favorite last week and they lost,
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: that this is a buying opportunity on them. They are
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: the largest favorites to lose outright. Since the Titans beat
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: the Dolphins as fourteen and a half point underdogs. I
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: think that game was in prime time too, Week fourteen
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: of the twenty twenty three season. Any recollection, now this
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: is a very limited sample, but any recollection as to
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: what the Dolphins did the following week after they were
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: two touchdown favorites and lost the game outright.
• 48:00
  Speaker 7: It's funny, I thought you actually asked me this question
• 48:02
  Speaker 7: kind of facetiously because they want thirty nothing against the
• 48:05
  Speaker 7: Jets the next week, which obviously says great things about
• 48:08
  Speaker 7: what the situation was. But I also have to mention
• 48:11
  Speaker 7: it was the Jets. But if you look in our database,
• 48:14
  Speaker 7: teams lose by twelve as at twelve and a half
• 48:17
  Speaker 7: plus point favorite nineteen twelve and two ats in the
• 48:20
  Speaker 7: next game. Super small sample size and a lot of
• 48:24
  Speaker 7: noise there. But I do probably think there is like
• 48:27
  Speaker 7: a motivational comeback to the meme. Plus the line probably
• 48:31
  Speaker 7: drops on the clothes for the team that we thought
• 48:33
  Speaker 7: was really good, So I think there's a few factors
• 48:36
  Speaker 7: buying in there.
• 48:36
  Speaker 5: But it's it's tight. That's basically my reason. I think
• 48:40
  Speaker 5: the past and teams are going to lose flukey games.
• 48:43
  Speaker 5: What ad the outain them by one hundred and twenty
• 48:44
  Speaker 5: didn't punt one time in the game. Yeah, then miss
• 48:48
  Speaker 5: field rolls like those weather and I look back the
• 48:51
  Speaker 5: remember the Chiefs lost of the Raiders at home last year.
• 48:54
  Speaker 5: The Ravens lost to the Raiders at home and then
• 48:56
  Speaker 5: won like ten of eleven and everyone was like panicking,
• 48:59
  Speaker 5: the Ravens are all and two. They lost to Garner
• 49:01
  Speaker 5: Minshew and the Raiders in Baltimore, and you know, I
• 49:06
  Speaker 5: think they covered like six and row after that. I
• 49:08
  Speaker 5: think that's what's driving it. I think designed you b three.
• 49:11
  Speaker 5: I think it would have been three if the Packers
• 49:12
  Speaker 5: one and now we're getting to an alf So that's
• 49:16
  Speaker 5: basically the main reason to my bad. But we also
• 49:21
  Speaker 5: have we also have Lamar first half trend and Lamar
• 49:24
  Speaker 5: varus NFC. I'll be looking at Raven's first half this
• 49:28
  Speaker 5: week under a field goal.
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: Anything post trade deadline trends wise that we should be
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: aware of. Is there anything you have anything on that,
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: Evan before we wrap?
• 49:37
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 49:38
  Speaker 7: So the only thing that I find interesting, and I
• 49:40
  Speaker 7: kind of dug into this a little bit, is the
• 49:42
  Speaker 7: closing lines into the trade deadline weeks. So I'll have
• 49:47
  Speaker 7: something about that in my article, but I wanted to
• 49:49
  Speaker 7: dig a little bit further because you have to pin
• 49:51
  Speaker 7: the trade deadline hasn't been the same every year, so
• 49:53
  Speaker 7: I'm looking into it a little bit, So check out
• 49:55
  Speaker 7: the primer for that. But I do think it tends
• 49:58
  Speaker 7: to be in an outline week in the sense that
• 50:01
  Speaker 7: teams get worse and teams get better. But mostly it's
• 50:04
  Speaker 7: the teams get worse angle because sometimes the players don't
• 50:07
  Speaker 7: play right away for the teams they go to. But
• 50:10
  Speaker 7: like a team like the Raiders could be extremely decimated
• 50:14
  Speaker 7: and the line could rise a few points, which actually
• 50:16
  Speaker 7: would probably give some value to Vegas in that spot.
• 50:19
  Speaker 5: So yeah, that that's what I was This is very
• 50:21
  Speaker 5: hard to parse through because this is something I wanted
• 50:23
  Speaker 5: to look at, So I don't know how you'll end
• 50:25
  Speaker 5: up doing it because you don't going back to every
• 50:27
  Speaker 5: year and then saying like here's the teams that traded
• 50:29
  Speaker 5: someone key and here's the ones that got.
• 50:34
  Speaker 7: Versus injuries, which would take so long. I was just
• 50:37
  Speaker 7: gonna look at line movement in trade deadline week.
• 50:39
  Speaker 5: That's what I was gonna suggest. Look, I would filter
• 50:42
  Speaker 5: like the worst team so like win percentage really low
• 50:47
  Speaker 5: line moves against them by a certain amount, didn't move
• 50:52
  Speaker 5: too much, right, so like is there? Yeah, this would
• 50:54
  Speaker 5: be my thought to say. And then on the on
• 50:55
  Speaker 5: the flip side, some of the best teams who hadded
• 50:58
  Speaker 5: someone that first week is it is the market overreacting,
• 51:02
  Speaker 5: which it certainly could. I would tend to think over time,
• 51:07
  Speaker 5: even if it's just slightly, the market probably overreacts in
• 51:12
  Speaker 5: general in totality.
• 51:14
  Speaker 8: For so, the funny thing is the line might overreact
• 51:17
  Speaker 8: for a player that may not even end up playing
• 51:19
  Speaker 8: that week anyway, Like just with the team making a
• 51:22
  Speaker 8: trade for a player, the line going up and maybe
• 51:25
  Speaker 8: that player, you know, Yeah, and then.
• 51:27
  Speaker 5: On the flip side, the narrative of like all this
• 51:29
  Speaker 5: team's quit, they're selling, and then people just betting against them,
• 51:33
  Speaker 5: and then it goes a little too far. So interesting. Yeah,
• 51:36
  Speaker 5: make sure you check out Evan's private love something on
• 51:38
  Speaker 5: that for sure.
• 51:39
  Speaker 4: Actionally work at and fade the narratives.
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: The Favorites is a wrap for today special thanks to
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: our producers David Paine and Gifford Gould. We'll be back
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: at it on Thursday on the Action Network YouTube page
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: where we talk week ten best of bets and our
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: two Kings and a Queen parlay. We'll see if we
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: can go back to back this week. We'll see you
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: next time here on the Favorites presented by Draft Kings
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: or Out Go Pat Goat.
• 52:12
  Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
• 52:17
  Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is
• 52:19
  Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler