Latest / CattleUSA Daily / 114: What the LRC Is Saying About the Rest of Summer and Hurricane Season with Gary Lezak

Transcript

114: What the LRC Is Saying About the Rest of Summer and Hurricane Season with Gary Lezak · CattleUSA Daily

• 0:00
  Welcome back to another episode of the Cattle USA Daily podcast.
• 0:03
  Today we are welcoming Gary Lezak back on to the podcast as
• 0:08
  we do every single week with the Weather 2020 team where we are
• 0:11
  bringing you guys weekly weather insights and long term weather
• 0:15
  predictions on what is happening throughout the Midwest and
• 0:19
  throughout the like Lower 48 in general.
• 0:23
  Just what is happening, what are major weather events that we
• 0:25
  need to talk about, things that we need to keep our eyes on.
• 0:28
  And today, Gary, tonight talk all of those things.
• 0:31
  We are talking weather and rain patterns across the Midwest and
• 0:35
  then we're talking hurricanes and hurricane season.
• 0:38
  What that what that's looking like for our southern States and
• 0:42
  everything else that kind of comes along with that.
• 0:44
  So without further ado, let's go ahead and hop into this episode
• 0:48
  with Gary. Welcome to the Cattle USA Daily
• 0:54
  podcast, your go to source for the latest livestock markets,
• 0:57
  industry insights and the updates shaping agriculture
• 1:00
  today. I'm your host, Lauren Moylan, a
• 1:02
  passionate advocate for agriculture, here to keep you
• 1:05
  informed and connected. Now let's dive into today's
• 1:08
  episode. Gary, welcome back to.
• 1:18
  The podcast, what time of day it is, morning or afternoon?
• 1:23
  Whatever time you're listening to this, fill in the blank.
• 1:25
  Probably morning. So he's driving, they're on
• 1:28
  their way to to Nebraska, and they're listening to our podcast
• 1:32
  to get them inspired and excited about science, about weather,
• 1:37
  about summer, about fall coming or just for now, the jet stream
• 1:42
  starts strengthening and fall will be approaching.
• 1:45
  That's crazy. We were just talking about how
• 1:48
  like, hey, it's almost the first days of summer, and then now
• 1:50
  we're like, guys, fall is knocking.
• 1:53
  It's right around the corner. Lies by, but yeah, but no, it's
• 1:58
  great. It's great to be here with you.
• 1:59
  How is your sourdough? Going my sourdough is great
• 2:02
  again. We had a redeeming A redeeming
• 2:05
  batch. It was phenomenal.
• 2:07
  Turned out great. Next time around you're getting
• 2:10
  some in the mail. Because I I am redeemed.
• 2:12
  I am redeemed, I think. It's.
• 2:13
  Ready to go again? FedEx it real quickly and so at
• 2:17
  least. Yeah, I think I could do
• 2:18
  overnight shipping to Colorado like yeah, yeah, 100%.
• 2:22
  We're, we're going to have to do that.
• 2:24
  I had to make a batch where I was like, we're just going to do
• 2:27
  these and they're going to be ones that I'm not like giving to
• 2:29
  any friends. They're not going to like I, I
• 2:31
  just got to make sure that it's good again and it's ready to go.
• 2:34
  And it is indeed. So we are, we are redeemed.
• 2:37
  I am back ready to conquer the world.
• 2:40
  That's awesome. So I'm back up in my office.
• 2:44
  I I move the TV studio equipment out.
• 2:48
  I kept a couple lights and the monitor and and the system if I
• 2:52
  want to still record live somewhere.
• 2:55
  But regardless, it's nice to be backing up in my office.
• 2:59
  Yes, your office is not completely taken over by weather
• 3:03
  studio equipment from your time on air.
• 3:05
  You can. Exactly behind me you can.
• 3:08
  See the walls? There's a bed behind me right
• 3:11
  here. It's a big full size bed, but
• 3:16
  the dogs, it's like a big dog bed.
• 3:18
  They've got their dog bed back. I bet those two are just living
• 3:22
  their life right now. So excited that they have their
• 3:24
  dog bed. Back down right now they you may
• 3:26
  see one of them walk into this shot here soon.
• 3:30
  I love it. I love it.
• 3:31
  Well, how I. Heard her.
• 3:33
  Earlier she was pitter patterned around before we started
• 3:36
  recording. She's she's there somewhere.
• 3:38
  Perfect. Awesome, awesome.
• 3:39
  How's how's everything else, Gary?
• 3:41
  What? What else is going on in the
• 3:42
  world? Well, the weather pattern is
• 3:44
  cycling regularly. We've already gotten past the
• 3:47
  all sorts game of baseball. Oh, there it was.
• 3:50
  Rainbow there. She.
• 3:54
  Is so but no the weather parent is fascinating rainbow yeah good
• 4:00
  girl. But you know, there's, there's a
• 4:02
  lot going on. We're sharing something special
• 4:05
  with all of you guys here at Cal USA and I highly recommend you
• 4:09
  getting the discount through through the site here and
• 4:13
  getting that, that dashboard, the weather 2020 vision
• 4:16
  dashboard right now, it goes out a year ahead.
• 4:20
  So right now it'll go all the way to next July.
• 4:22
  And you can see how much snow is going to fall location by
• 4:25
  location that granted the weather pattern is cycling.
• 4:29
  And what happens with the LRC every year in October, the
• 4:34
  weather pattern sets up, It evolves from around mid August
• 4:38
  to mid-october. And by mid-october, it is now a
• 4:42
  brand new pan and it's never happened before.
• 4:44
  So yes, we have a forecast that goes out the next year and
• 4:48
  through winter. And you can get an amount of
• 4:50
  snow forecast in your area on this dashboard.
• 4:53
  But that will evolve and change when the new LRC sets up next
• 4:56
  October and November. But at least have a tool and no
• 4:59
  one else has. And it'll be accurate right now
• 5:02
  through September 30th. As you go into harvest, it's
• 5:05
  going to let you know which days and which weeks will be wet,
• 5:09
  which days and which weeks will be dry.
• 5:11
  After October, the new pattern evolves and we'll talk more
• 5:14
  about it then. But it's a great tool that only
• 5:17
  exists through other 2020. So when the new pattern evolves,
• 5:21
  are we going to have a different amount of cycling days when the
• 5:24
  pattern changes? Is that how that works?
• 5:26
  Yeah, like last year we had about a 45 to 46 day cycle.
• 5:31
  OK. Oh, and then oscillated between
• 5:33
  42 and 49. The year before that was roughly
• 5:36
  51 days. The year before that was about
• 5:41
  6064 days. And this year is is 38 to 44
• 5:47
  days or so, around 41 days in in December.
• 5:51
  Jeff Penner, one of our meteorologists, he and I saw
• 5:56
  3940 days and we like, now that's probably too low of a
• 6:00
  cycle. So we sort of ignored it in
• 6:03
  November when we first saw it. And then by the end of December,
• 6:06
  early January, we're like, we thought it might be 60 days or
• 6:10
  62 days or 55 days or 48 days, but then it's settled in on 41
• 6:16
  days. So that 383940 days second we
• 6:19
  saw early on actually was valid. So it's a very low cycle length.
• 6:24
  This year, most cycle lengths are 40s or 50s, but anywhere
• 6:29
  between 35 days and 80 days is the cycle length each year.
• 6:33
  That year, once it's set, it is consistent.
• 6:36
  This year is 41 days. You go back and look at what's
• 6:39
  happened on your farm, in your area, wherever you're concerned
• 6:43
  with, and you go back and take 41 days.
• 6:46
  Just go back and look around that day and you had like a big
• 6:48
  rain event or it was hot or it was very cold.
• 6:51
  You'll notice that it likely happened again 40 days later.
• 6:56
  You forget, but it happened again.
• 6:58
  And so why even this flooding disaster in Texas, this horrific
• 7:02
  disaster, they did have a big rain event 40 days earlier, 41
• 7:07
  days earlier in May, May 26th actually.
• 7:10
  So it's not saying that there will be a flood watch out, but
• 7:14
  it might want to give campers a heads up to that could be a
• 7:17
  stormy weekend. And if you have a heads up, it's
• 7:20
  weird if you have a heads up on an event, whether it's a
• 7:23
  flooding event or a winter storm or tornado outbreak or a
• 7:27
  hurricane, when it starts developing, it just might cause
• 7:30
  you to act differently. One action, one life saved is
• 7:34
  worth it. The LRC is going to save lives
• 7:37
  in the future. So, you know, would it have
• 7:39
  saved all 100 and and 32 people that have tightened out from
• 7:44
  that or probably not when a flood's that bad.
• 7:47
  But as I said, even if it saved 1,00,000, that's worth it.
• 7:52
  Yeah, 100%. I couldn't agree more.
• 7:55
  As we as we look out into summer, what are we, what are we
• 7:58
  seeing any changes, any things that we need to cover as we kind
• 8:03
  of we're halfway through July, which I was talking to someone
• 8:05
  yesterday and I was like on the whole time is going extremely
• 8:09
  fast. Like the days go by slow, the
• 8:10
  weeks go by very fast concept. Holy cow, how it was just July
• 8:15
  4th like yesterday, I swear. And now it's what, July 16th
• 8:19
  today? It was just like, this was
• 8:22
  really weird. It was the July 4th thing.
• 8:24
  You just brought it. I was like, Oh my gosh, it's
• 8:26
  only been two weeks since July 4th.
• 8:27
  What the heck? Yeah.
• 8:29
  And so, yeah, that's, that's crazy.
• 8:31
  But you know, one thing that we talked about right here on this
• 8:34
  podcast from the beginning when we started looking into summer
• 8:37
  during the spring and we finally in May started looking into I, I
• 8:42
  said it doesn't was like we're going to have any major heat
• 8:44
  wave, right. So, so far, the only significant
• 8:48
  heat wave has happened near the East Coast of the United States.
• 8:51
  And that part of the pattern is actually returning in the next
• 8:54
  couple weeks. So the blue sky part of the
• 8:57
  pattern, you remember, remember that.
• 8:58
  Yeah, I do Blue sky power pattern is is due to return in a
• 9:03
  couple weeks. So, so right at the end of July,
• 9:06
  early August, when we're supposed to be hot, it might
• 9:09
  actually have a small heat wave, but that would be it.
• 9:12
  Then a cold front would come through and, and and it was
• 9:16
  squashed at. So that was one of the things
• 9:18
  that we talked about. And so most areas of the Corn
• 9:23
  Belt and the agriculture belts are doing well.
• 9:28
  Unfortunately, there's pockets that are not.
• 9:31
  And there's parts of Kansas crops have already failed how
• 9:35
  they they may they even had the the cordon failed in in a couple
• 9:42
  of couple of farms already. And so literally, and there's
• 9:47
  others that are on the threshold.
• 9:48
  Last night there was a thunderstorm complex and large
• 9:52
  area of rain coming across Nebraska and Oh my gosh,
• 9:56
  Nebraska and Iowa got a lot of rain again.
• 9:58
  So those crops are probably really good.
• 10:00
  So, but that was heading towards Kansas.
• 10:03
  There's this one county, Washington County, Lynn, Kansas
• 10:06
  is in Washington County and that county really right now they
• 10:10
  need 2-3 inches of rain. It'll make the corn crop.
• 10:14
  Some people say, oh, corn doesn't need rain right now.
• 10:16
  When for corn inside means some rain in areas that haven't
• 10:20
  gotten enough rain. They need rain in areas that
• 10:23
  have gotten rain. Yeah, they don't need the rain
• 10:25
  right now. But last night did it again hit
• 10:29
  Washington County. It produced about 1/2 inch of
• 10:33
  rain in a couple spots, but it all ended up just one county
• 10:37
  East of there was about 2-3 inches.
• 10:40
  So they didn't get the rain. So there's pockets like that
• 10:43
  that exists near the Flint Hills.
• 10:45
  There's a, there's a pocket that has not had a lot of rain on the
• 10:48
  north side, whereas the southern side, as you get closer to
• 10:51
  Wichita, they've had a lot of rain.
• 10:53
  So the, the struggles, the struggle is real, Lauren.
• 10:57
  The struggle is real. And I feel that struggle.
• 11:00
  I, I wish I could control the weather.
• 11:03
  I don't like it when these areas keep getting missed.
• 11:06
  But the areas that keep getting missed is also a sign of what
• 11:10
  the LRC is all about. Some areas get hit and they keep
• 11:13
  getting hit because the weather is cycling and it's producing
• 11:16
  conditions to produce rain for your area and the areas right
• 11:19
  next to you are not getting it. And it's very consistent.
• 11:23
  These things happen all the time, every year.
• 11:26
  And if you're in one of those areas that gets missed seemingly
• 11:30
  all the time, you still may get hit, but hopefully it's not
• 11:33
  after it's too late. Yeah, precisely how is hurricane
• 11:36
  season looking? We are how's, how's all that
• 11:39
  looking? What's an update there?
• 11:40
  We had Andrea, then we had Chantal and then we had we had
• 11:47
  Andrea, then Berry, then Chantal.
• 11:49
  Berry is moisture was included in that flood in Texas and
• 11:53
  Chantal went into the Southeast United States.
• 11:55
  So we had three weak tropical systems so far.
• 11:58
  There's a fourth one that may develop near New Orleans in the
• 12:02
  next next couple of days, but it's also weak and it may not
• 12:06
  form into a named storm. If it is, it'll be named Dexter.
• 12:10
  But so far, even though there have been three named storms and
• 12:12
  that's slightly above average, the energy that is produced is
• 12:17
  way below average already. So it's already a fairly quiet
• 12:22
  start to the season. I predicted whether 2020
• 12:24
  predicted 17 to 23 named storms. So we may get higher numbers
• 12:31
  like I'm predicting, but at the same time, the energy it shows
• 12:35
  you just because the water is warm.
• 12:37
  These climate change people when they say the water is so warm,
• 12:41
  hurricanes are going to be stronger.
• 12:42
  Now you have to have a system first.
• 12:44
  So we'll see if these systems get generated and then they
• 12:47
  could tap into that warm. That makes sense.
• 12:49
  Totally like side topic thing but like how did they come up
• 12:53
  with names for hurricanes? Way back in the 1960s I think
• 12:58
  they started naming them. I can't remember exactly what
• 13:01
  year it was, but they were all female names.
• 13:05
  For a long time it was just female names, and then in the
• 13:09
  90s or early 2000s they changed it to alternate between male and
• 13:13
  female names. But they make a list.
• 13:17
  The list on their names is about 20 per season.
• 13:21
  Because there's no good. There's not going to be AQ name
• 13:24
  or no Z names. Unless it's the Greek alphabet
• 13:27
  at the end of the new Zeta. But they they came up with this
• 13:31
  list of names and then they have six years of lists of names.
• 13:35
  So the 7th year will be the same list as the first year.
• 13:39
  So for example, we just had Andrea Berry and Chantelle,
• 13:43
  right? If one of those became a
• 13:45
  powerful hurricane last year, Beryl, remember, Beryl was a big
• 13:49
  one, Hurricane Beryl and Helene was a big one.
• 13:52
  Helene and Beryl's names will be retired and taken off the list
• 13:58
  because when you have a barrel that becomes so huge, the
• 14:01
  strongest hurricanes, earliest strong hurricane, strongest
• 14:04
  hurricane ever. Now Beryl will be remembered.
• 14:07
  So you take it off the list and another B name goes into that
• 14:11
  list instead of Beryl. If Barry or Chantal, that just
• 14:15
  happened. If one of those was impacting
• 14:17
  and big and deadly, then it would be up.
• 14:20
  We need to retire that name and then they replace it with
• 14:23
  another name. Otherwise in seven years from
• 14:26
  now. And so this is 2025 S in 2031,
• 14:31
  there's going to be Andrea, Barry Chantal again.
• 14:36
  Did you know that? I did not know that.
• 14:38
  I had no idea. I was like, I know there's a
• 14:40
  system behind it and I know you would have to know.
• 14:43
  So I was like I I want to know a fun fact today on how this goes
• 14:47
  so. So that's how just know, like
• 14:50
  before Hurricane Harvey, Harvey was a major one that killed a
• 14:55
  lot of people, produced a major flood in Texas and Corpus
• 14:58
  Christi in 2018 before Hurricane Harvey happened, maybe it's
• 15:05
  2017, there was in 2011, there was a trouble Storm Harvey.
• 15:10
  In 2005, there was a Hurricane Harvey.
• 15:12
  In 1999 there was a Hurricane Harvey.
• 15:15
  But they were never memorable. They may have been over there,
• 15:19
  open Atlantic didn't do any damage.
• 15:21
  So six years later when the list returned, there was always,
• 15:23
  there's been other Harveys. But then we had the major
• 15:27
  Harvey. And now, now that Hurricane
• 15:29
  Harvey is the one we'll remember.
• 15:31
  And now there's no more Harvey. Harvey has been replaced with
• 15:34
  another day. So.
• 15:35
  Fun, So fun. When do they like?
• 15:37
  When do they officially decide? Like, hey, this is a named
• 15:39
  storm? Like when they like decide it's
• 15:40
  severe enough, that's when it becomes named.
• 15:44
  Yeah, When it comes to hurricanes, no, there's a
• 15:46
  complete criteria on wind speeds.
• 15:48
  And so when it's and there's a low pressure circulation over
• 15:53
  the tropics that they can identify as circulation and the
• 15:56
  wind speeds reach 30 knots or 35 mph roughly, that becomes a
• 16:02
  tropical depression. Otherwise just a tropical
• 16:06
  disturbance. If there's an area of
• 16:07
  thunderstorms, we're monitoring this disturbance.
• 16:10
  Then when it gets organized and starts having a low pressure
• 16:13
  area, then it becomes a tropical depression of 30 knots.
• 16:17
  When it hits 35 knots, which is close to 40 mph, it gets a name.
• 16:23
  They name it Tropical Storm Berry.
• 16:26
  And then when it gets up to 65 knots, that is 74 mph, almost 75
• 16:35
  mph, but it's 65 knots, it becomes a hurricane.
• 16:39
  That's usually as strong as sometimes when it becomes a
• 16:43
  hurricane, that's when the eye starts forming in the middle of
• 16:45
  it and you can see the eye. It's not always you can see the
• 16:48
  eye when it's 75 mph, but then it's a category one hurricane.
• 16:53
  Then a category 2 is closer to 95 mph.
• 16:58
  Category three becomes 100 and 510 mph.
• 17:01
  Category 4 is like 125. And then it's category 5 when it
• 17:06
  gets to 155 or higher on mph. So and those are sustained winds
• 17:12
  on average one minute wind speed, a wind gust can be 240
• 17:17
  mph in a hurricane and then in the strongest.
• 17:20
  So but then that's when they act like just like you're 21 across
• 17:24
  a large area. But that's how that's how
• 17:26
  they're named. The more you know, the more you
• 17:29
  know. I love it.
• 17:30
  Amazing. Any other things that we need to
• 17:33
  hit on in the weather this week or this coming month?
• 17:37
  Yeah, the thing to test for the next 15 days.
• 17:40
  In these next 15 days, we see more chances of rain and
• 17:43
  thunderstorms. Will the heights rise?
• 17:46
  Remember, this is the jet stream, which is the subject of
• 17:51
  the weather Intelligence Report, weather2020.substack.com.
• 17:55
  For that, there's a link on the site here where you can click
• 17:58
  and get it. I highly recommend getting that.
• 18:01
  It's $300 a year, whether a discount could be a little less,
• 18:05
  but that's still less than a dollar a day.
• 18:07
  And between now and a year from now, you're going to go, your
• 18:12
  light bulb is going to go off and it's going to, you're going
• 18:14
  to go, wow, the LRC is real. The weather pattern is cycling.
• 18:20
  Oh my gosh, how come the rest of the world doesn't know it?
• 18:22
  And that'll be the next question he asked me and I go, I've been
• 18:25
  trying to tell the West of the world for 20 plus years, 30 plus
• 18:30
  years by the way, I highly recommend that.
• 18:33
  So one thing we're monitoring right now is we talked about is
• 18:37
  the jet stream. It reaches its weakest point at
• 18:40
  the end of July and early August.
• 18:42
  And this is every year regardless of the weather
• 18:45
  pattern, right? Every year's pattern is unique,
• 18:47
  but the jet stream will be at its weakest point somewhere in
• 18:50
  that two week stretch, late July, early August.
• 18:53
  That's when the average high temperature is usually the
• 18:55
  highest everywhere around the the the northern hemisphere.
• 18:58
  And that's when storm systems are weaker and farther N.
• 19:02
  But then as soon as it's August 10th, August 15th, one month
• 19:05
  from now, the jet stream gets a little stronger and stronger and
• 19:08
  stronger until it hits the first day of fall.
• 19:11
  And now we got that are really strong.
• 19:13
  Again, the jet stream is caused by temperature countries, but I
• 19:16
  talk about that in the weather Intelligence Report today.
• 19:20
  Awesome, awesome. Well, Gary, as always, thank you
• 19:23
  so much for giving us some insight into weather patterns,
• 19:28
  what's going on in the world, all of the things that we kind
• 19:31
  of need to know and keep our eye on as we finish up summer and go
• 19:35
  into fall. That's crazy to say.
• 19:38
  I I can't believe I'm saying that as we're finishing up
• 19:41
  summer and going into fall. Football season 2 months.
• 19:47
  I'm so excited. I'm so excited.
• 19:49
  We were looking at tickets. We are not big.
• 19:51
  Like we love Chiefs football, but I'm not, I'm not a big like
• 19:54
  go to a Chiefs game person. I like, I wouldn't mind going to
• 19:58
  1A year, but I'm not like we're more of AK State football family
• 20:02
  where we're like if I am here and if I am not travelling,
• 20:05
  we're going to get our butts to a game at least to go tailgate.
• 20:08
  And so I we looked at the schedule yesterday.
• 20:10
  I'm very excited. That is awesome, Very exciting.
• 20:13
  Yes, yes. And we're going to drag Gary
• 20:15
  back from Colorado to go to a Chiefs game because of course, I
• 20:18
  mean, he has to. He's wearing Chiefs gear right
• 20:20
  now. I think he wears Chiefs gear
• 20:23
  more than he doesn't actually. I do and I'm going to be home
• 20:27
  opener on September 14th. I will be there.
• 20:28
  So if you are tailgating out at Arrowhead, I will be come by
• 20:32
  coming by to say hi. Heck yeah, we love it.
• 20:35
  We love it. Well, Gary, thank you as always.
• 20:37
  We appreciate it. To all of you listeners out
• 20:39
  there, make sure you check out the show notes.
• 20:41
  I have all of the links that Gary chatted about today.
• 20:43
  We've got that sub stack link down there.
• 20:45
  We've got the link to the dashboards, our exclusive
• 20:48
  discount, all the things. So make sure you go check them
• 20:50
  out. And as always, we will see you
• 20:52
  all tomorrow on another episode. Have a great rest of your week
• 20:56
  y'all.