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Can Iran really close the Persian Gulf? · The Front

• 0:05
  Speaker 1: From the Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Claire Harvey.
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  Speaker 1: It's Wednesday, March four, twenty twenty five. The Southwales's prisons
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: are giving guards special training to deal with female prisoners
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  Speaker 1: who pose a threat to national security, a move that
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  Speaker 1: spells isis brides to anyone who's been paying attention to
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  Speaker 1: the family stuck in Syrian camps who are trying to
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  Speaker 1: get home. The Australians revealing today the sudden training burst
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  Speaker 1: suggests the women and children's arrival is imminent, despite the
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  Speaker 1: Albanese government's insistence it's not lifting a finger to help
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  Speaker 1: them home. That's live right now at the Australian dot
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  Speaker 1: Com dot a U. A stretch of water just thirty
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  Speaker 1: three kilometers wide. It's the new flashpoint Australians need to
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  Speaker 1: know about. The Strait of Hormuz lies between Iran and
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  Speaker 1: the Arabian Peninsula, connecting the Persian Gulf and its oil
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  Speaker 1: and gas to the Indian Ocean and the rest of
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  Speaker 1: the world. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards say they'll sink any
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  Speaker 1: ship that tries to get through. On the other side
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  Speaker 1: of Saudi Arabia is the Red Sea, but Iran's local militia,
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  Speaker 1: the Hoofies, say Vale attack ships that try to get
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  Speaker 1: to the Mediterranean or the rest of the world through
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  Speaker 1: there too. So are all these threats real and what
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  Speaker 1: do they mean for our economy grocery prices, jobs, power
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  Speaker 1: bills and deliveries. Chief International correspondent Cameron Stewart is here
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: in just a minute. Cameron Stewart is the Australian's chief
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  Speaker 1: international correspondent. Everyone in Australia who's waiting for a car
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  Speaker 1: or a sofa, or even to fill up their car
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  Speaker 1: at the petrol pump has got a sudden new interest
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  Speaker 1: in Middle East geography. The Strait of horn Wu's is
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  Speaker 1: a critical and only thirty three kilometers wide body of
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  Speaker 1: water that Iran is saying it's now closed. It says
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  Speaker 1: it's going to sink any oil tanker that tries to
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  Speaker 1: get through the Strait of Hormores. First of all, do
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  Speaker 1: you think Uran is actually capable of living out that threat?
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  Speaker 2: I think they're certainly capable of doing it In the
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  Speaker 2: short term moment. It's literally off their coast and so
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  Speaker 2: they would have short range missiles that could definitely do
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  Speaker 2: that for sure. Claire in the short term, I think
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  Speaker 2: probably the bigger question is what non Iranian ships would
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  Speaker 2: risk sending their ships through there. At this point. Iran
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  Speaker 2: reportedly set a tanker on fire just twenty four hours
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  Speaker 2: ago with one of its missiles. So I think we've
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  Speaker 2: seen actually in the past few weeks, as the tensions
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  Speaker 2: are built between the US and Iran, before they actually
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  Speaker 2: attacked Iran, the number of those ships going through the
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  Speaker 2: strait dwindled. So it's, if you like, it's self preservation
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  Speaker 2: at the moment. So even if Iran couldn't sink every
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  Speaker 2: ship that went through, it doesn't mean they'll go through
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  Speaker 2: because they won't take their risk.
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  Speaker 1: Already, oil and gas prices are going through the roof.
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  Speaker 1: It's going to obviously at the cost of living pressure
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  Speaker 1: throughout the rest of the world. Australians are already worried
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  Speaker 1: about their travel plans. The entire Middle East aviation system
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  Speaker 1: has shut down and that's meant the cancelation of thousands
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  Speaker 1: of flights. Attention, Please, we've been advised by the company
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  Speaker 1: to return back to Doha, so we're just strended stream.
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  Speaker 1: They said that the gates could be closed with one
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  Speaker 1: of the two or three hours they have no idea.
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  Speaker 1: Maybe for Australians here cam who are worried about all
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  Speaker 1: of these and the impact that it's going to have
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  Speaker 1: on their day to day lives. Do you think this
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  Speaker 1: will be sorted out in the next few weeks or
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  Speaker 1: the next few months, or is this going to be
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  Speaker 1: a new reality for years to come, not for.
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  Speaker 2: Years to come, and certainly be the reality in the
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  Speaker 2: short term. I mean, we're going to see impacts on
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  Speaker 2: oil prices, who've already seen them, on gas prices. We'll
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  Speaker 2: see impacts on world stock markets, with confidence rising or
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  Speaker 2: falling depending on how the conflict plays out. And of
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  Speaker 2: course in the very short term. Clear it's a disaster
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  Speaker 2: for Australians who are traveling because the Middle East hub
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  Speaker 2: there with the airlines like Guitar and Emirates and Eddie
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  Speaker 2: hadd and Quantus as well. I mean, the Middle East
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  Speaker 2: really is the way Australians get to and from Europe
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  Speaker 2: these days, it's the main hub. So it's a disaster
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  Speaker 2: for people who are traveling, it really is, who are
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  Speaker 2: stuck there, stuck in Europe, stuck in Australia, have travel
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  Speaker 2: plans they've got to recalculate and the interesting thing is
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  Speaker 2: that while those airlines are desperate to get back off
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  Speaker 2: the ground and back into the air, very difficult to
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  Speaker 2: do that in any numbers when they're still uncertainty about
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  Speaker 2: whether Iran will actually continue their attacks on these Golf states,
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  Speaker 2: which of course they did when the conflict began on Saturday.
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  Speaker 1: On the western side of the Persian Gulf, just above
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  Speaker 1: the Strait of holl Wars are seven monarchys that until
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  Speaker 1: now have been assumed to be relatively neutral in the
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  Speaker 1: Middle East conflict. That's Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, the
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  Speaker 1: United Arab Emirates, Oman, and on the other side of
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  Speaker 1: the peninsula, of course, is Jordan. They are all now
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  Speaker 1: under attack from Iran. Has Iran made it a terrible
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  Speaker 1: mistake by drawing those countries in look.
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  Speaker 2: I think Iran has made a miscalculation here what Iran
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  Speaker 2: wanted to do. In fact, there's actually stated this. It
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  Speaker 2: claims it was going to attack only US facilities in
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  Speaker 2: these golf stats because of because these Gulf states do
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  Speaker 2: house US troops sometimes they house warplanes, et cetera, et cetera,
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  Speaker 2: and Iran said they would target that. Next thing we
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  Speaker 2: saw astonishing vision seen all over the world of course,
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  Speaker 2: of luxury hotels in Dubai being hit, high rise towers
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  Speaker 2: in Bahrain being hit, commercial ports as well being hit.
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  Speaker 2: I mean infrastructure that really didn't have anything to do
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  Speaker 2: with the US. And this I think has been a
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  Speaker 2: real own goal by Iran because what it's done instantly
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  Speaker 2: is its aligned these goal states against Iran. Whereas they
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  Speaker 2: weren't really necessarily like that Clayer. They actually were the
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  Speaker 2: ones that were advising Donald Trump, or pleading with Donald Trump,
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  Speaker 2: do not attack Iran. In fact, they went so far
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  Speaker 2: as to say the US could not use their facilities
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  Speaker 2: to help attack Iran. So they were doing everything they
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  Speaker 2: could diplomatically at least to prevent the actual attack, and
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  Speaker 2: so they were pretty upset when they had missiles going
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  Speaker 2: into their hotels and high rise buildings from Iran. In fact,
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  Speaker 2: they put a statement out just twenty four hours after
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  Speaker 2: the attacks happened. Six of the Golf states got together
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  Speaker 2: in a council and they put out a statement saying,
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  Speaker 2: we deplore, we criticized this attack on us. You know,
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  Speaker 2: we were the ones who did not want this attack
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  Speaker 2: to start off in the first place, Meaning the US
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  Speaker 2: is rarely strikes and we didn't let us use our facilities,
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  Speaker 2: and now you still attacked us. So I think for
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  Speaker 2: Iran's perspective, this is an own goal. This is something
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  Speaker 2: that will actually align the region against Iran and make
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  Speaker 2: it more diplomatically isolated than it already is.
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  Speaker 1: We talked about travelers, but there are hundreds of thousands
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  Speaker 1: of foreigners living as expats in those states along the
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  Speaker 1: Persian Gulf. They're now obviously dealing with the terror of
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  Speaker 1: having missiles fly overhead of landing in their neighborhoods, and
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  Speaker 1: they're wanting to get home. They're complaining, some of them
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  Speaker 1: that the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade has been
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  Speaker 1: slow to get in touch with them, and that they
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  Speaker 1: don't know how they're going to get out. What do
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  Speaker 1: you think, cam about what's fair for Australians who are
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  Speaker 1: in those countries to expect. Should they expect that DEFAT
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  Speaker 1: is going to get them all out or is this
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  Speaker 1: part of the bargain when you go to live as
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  Speaker 1: an expat in a tax free state like this.
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  Speaker 2: Look. I think DEFAT is overwhelmed from what we've heard
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  Speaker 2: so far. Claire, if you count the expats who live
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  Speaker 2: there and also obviously people who are stranded, the travelers
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  Speaker 2: who are transitting through Dubai Airport. They said, there's absolutely
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  Speaker 2: no practical way that we could get astray military plans,
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  Speaker 2: for example, to bring people out of there, and so
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  Speaker 2: they're sayingmercial flights are really the only option at the moment.
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  Speaker 2: And look here, I understand a lot of Australians, I think,
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  Speaker 2: are very frustrated by this. The Americans are actually having
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  Speaker 2: the same issue because only a few hours ago the
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  Speaker 2: State Department urged Americans in thirteen countries in the region
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  Speaker 2: to leave those countries immediately. So they clearly believe that
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  Speaker 2: the potential is here for Iran to continue to attack
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  Speaker 2: these Golf states. I'm not so certain about that. I
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  Speaker 2: think that Iran may soon curtail those attacks, realizing that
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  Speaker 2: it is going to be a bit of a diplomatic
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  Speaker 2: own goal, But at this point in time, very hard
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  Speaker 2: to know how it will pan out, because the Uranian
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  Speaker 2: Foreign Minister interestingly yesterday made the claim that in fact
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  Speaker 2: there were rogue elements of the Uranian military that were
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  Speaker 2: firing on these Golf states. In other words, the commander
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  Speaker 2: control in Iran because of what's happened is not cohesive
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  Speaker 2: enough to guarantee that they won't randomly fire shots at
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  Speaker 2: these Gold states. Now, who knows in war whether that's
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  Speaker 2: a true statement or whether it's spin. We don't know,
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  Speaker 2: but it's a hugely confused.
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  Speaker 1: There is an alternative route for the Persian Gulf states
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  Speaker 1: to get their oil and their goods to the rest
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  Speaker 1: of the world, and that's the Red Sea. Saudi Arabia
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  Speaker 1: and the United Arab Emirates both have pipelines that wouldn't
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  Speaker 1: enable them to embark their oil at the Red Sea
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  Speaker 1: and then send it around the world. The problem in
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  Speaker 1: the Red Sea is that there's an Iran backed militia,
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  Speaker 1: the Hoofees in Yemen, who are saying they're going to
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  Speaker 1: fire on shipping. We've seen in the past that the
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  Speaker 1: Hoofes were able to completely disrupt world trade cam back
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  Speaker 1: when this war with Israel started raging in the first place.
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  Speaker 1: What do you think is going to happen now.
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  Speaker 2: Well, the Houfees are interesting because as one of the
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  Speaker 2: Iran backed terror proxies in the region, they said they
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  Speaker 2: would fight alongside Iran if Iran was attacked. Iran has
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  Speaker 2: been attacked, they have not yet announced that they are
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  Speaker 2: going to fire missiles and actually join the fight. But
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  Speaker 2: they have announced rhetorical solidarity with Iran. They've said it's
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  Speaker 2: a disgraceful what's happened, and they're fully in support of them.
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  Speaker 2: But a shot as yet. I think the next forty
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  Speaker 2: eight hours would be really instructive as to whether the
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  Speaker 2: Houthis are going to join this bat or not. Remember
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  Speaker 2: that Hesbala in Lebanon waited forty eight hours before they
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  Speaker 2: fired their first shots in support of Iran. And you've
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  Speaker 2: heard that some pro Iranian militia in Iraq have fired
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  Speaker 2: shots at the US basis. So Iran's proxies are slowly
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  Speaker 2: gearing into action, and the hoof Is we don't know
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  Speaker 2: whether they're going to join, but it would be really
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  Speaker 2: interesting because if they do join, clear to stop that
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  Speaker 2: shipping in the Red Sea at the point when the
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  Speaker 2: strats of a Munds are already closed, you know, you
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  Speaker 2: really are going to cause chaos in world trade if
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  Speaker 2: that's the case. And that's the sort of the deep
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  Speaker 2: breath moment we're waiting for as far as the trade
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  Speaker 2: and the Hoofs are concerned. In the next twenty four
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  Speaker 2: to forty eight hours.
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: Coming up, more of my conversation with Cameron Stewart. When
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: these big international dramas happen, can it's your job to
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  Speaker 1: write analysis that explains it for the rest of us.
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  Speaker 1: I've loved some of your analysis pieces since this war
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  Speaker 1: began and we all scrambled into action on Saturday night.
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  Speaker 1: In one of them, you talked about Israel as the
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  Speaker 1: new superpower? What do you mean by that?
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  Speaker 2: The decapitation of the Iranian regime from the Ayatola supreme
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  Speaker 2: leader and according to Trump, at least up to fifty
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  Speaker 2: of senior leaders, and the obvious military superiority that Israel
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  Speaker 2: now has over Iran really has enshrined it as the
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  Speaker 2: superpower of the Middle East. And the great irony of this, Claire,
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  Speaker 2: is that this has occurred really through a series of
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  Speaker 2: mistakes by Iran. Ever since the October seventh massacre of
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: israelis by Hamas in twenty twenty three. From that point
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  Speaker 2: on Iran's proxies. That was a crazy move by Hamas.
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  Speaker 2: It end in the destruction of Gaza and effectively the
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  Speaker 2: destruction off a mass's okherent fighting force. Then the other
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  Speaker 2: Iranian proxy, Hesbalah, joined the fight against Israel with lobbing
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  Speaker 2: bombs and missiles into northern Israel for over a year
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  Speaker 2: until Israel comprehensively routed it through a whole series of moves,
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  Speaker 2: including the assassination of hesbla's long standing leader. And then Iran,
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  Speaker 2: I think was just too much, had too much hubris
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  Speaker 2: and overconfidence, and launched some assaults on Israel that were
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  Speaker 2: very very unsuccessful, with Israel shooting down almost every missile
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  Speaker 2: that came its way. And then, of course last June
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  Speaker 2: we had the joint Israeli US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities,
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  Speaker 2: and Iran was very toothless in its response to that.
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  Speaker 2: And now we've had situation where in the lead up
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  Speaker 2: to this conflict, knowing that Donald Trump had sent two
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: aircraft carrier task forces to the region, Iran was still
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  Speaker 2: belligerent in its negotiations, refusing to give concessions on its
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: nuclear program or its ballistic missile program, which for the
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  Speaker 2: demands the Americans were making. And now we've seen this happen,
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  Speaker 2: and so through a whole series of missteps orchestraled bay Iran.
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  Speaker 2: Since October seven, Israel, almost by the factor status is
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  Speaker 2: now the Steve Grabery of the Middle East. It is
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  Speaker 2: the superpower of the Middle East.
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  Speaker 1: We've talked a little bit on the front before cam
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  Speaker 1: about how in the October seven, twenty twenty three attack,
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  Speaker 1: Hamas and therefore Iran, which funds her mass achieved exactly
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: what they wanted, that is to make Israel a pariah
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  Speaker 1: on the world stage. In Western capitals, in Sydney and
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  Speaker 1: Melbourne and Brisbane, westerners were marching in protest against Israel.
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  Speaker 1: Do you think now that the war has widened to Iran,
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: the Gulf, the United States, that that is going to
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: ease and we're going to see less antisemitism, less critique
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: of Israel itself.
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  Speaker 2: I think the Palestinian Israeli question is almost a bit
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: of an isolated question in the minds of many people.
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  Speaker 2: I mean, we've seen a lot of the protesters, a
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: lot of the anti Israeli and anti Semitism here in
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: Australia for example, really focus almost entirely around that conflict.
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  Speaker 2: We didn't see these processes come out early on when
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: Iranian dissidents were being slaughtered in the streets. So I
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: think that is a slightly separate issue to the broader
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: Middle East conflict, and it's really interesting isn't it the mainment.
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  Speaker 2: You've got anti Iranian regime protesters now on the streets
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  Speaker 2: celebrating the death of Maini and actually thanking the US
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: and Israel for this behavior. So we really do have
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: some interesting splits in the Islamic community between Palestinians and
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: Iranians about these conflicts.
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  Speaker 1: Cameron Stewart, thank you very much, pleasure. Cameron Stewart is
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: The Australian's chief international correspondent. You can read cams analysis,
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: plus all our news from correspondents around the world and
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: experts right here, right now at the Australian dot com
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  Speaker 1: dot au