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Crypto Supercycle?🚀Tom Lee vs Michael Saylor Strategy · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Today, we're going to be doing a clip aray that's
• 0:01
  Speaker 1: going to be Tom Lee versus Michael Sailor. Which strategy
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: is the best one to go with. We're going to
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: break it down, don't miss it. I want to thank
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  Speaker 1: now hit it down below. Let's go over to our
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: first clip. This first clip is going to kind of
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: set the stage for what happened at the Binance event. Now,
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: there was a lot of keynotes out there, everybody was
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: kind of pitching their book and everybody.
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: Had a strategy.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: Well, Tom Lee had a very significant strategy that was
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: different than Michael Sailor, different than Peter Shipp. We'll break
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: it all down for you.
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: Let's go to this first clip, it's still hard.
• 1:01
  Speaker 3: To escape this chart three of three times exactly called
• 1:05
  Speaker 3: the top and the lows. But the problem with the
• 1:07
  Speaker 3: having cycle explaining Bitcoin's price is that there's a lot
• 1:11
  Speaker 3: of other things that have a four year cycle presidential elections, Olympics,
• 1:15
  Speaker 3: World Cup, etc.
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: But there are some things.
• 1:17
  Speaker 3: That follow a four your price cycle that no longer
• 1:20
  Speaker 3: follow it.
• 1:21
  Speaker 2: For your price.
• 1:21
  Speaker 3: Cycle, let's look at the ratio of copper prices, which
• 1:24
  Speaker 3: is measuring industrial activity to monetary base, which is gold.
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: You can see it had.
• 1:29
  Speaker 3: A predictable four year cycle, except this time similarly is ism,
• 1:34
  Speaker 3: but as you can see, the ism is not following
• 1:37
  Speaker 3: a four your cycle today.
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: It's actually stayed below fifty for almost three and a
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: half years.
• 1:41
  Speaker 3: You can see it almost perfectly explained every Bitcoin cycle,
• 1:45
  Speaker 3: including the original bitcoin price peak, so it's even more
• 1:49
  Speaker 3: explanatory than the four your cycle.
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: But again, this time, the ism is not peaking.
• 1:54
  Speaker 3: I'm not in the camp that bitcoin price is peaked,
• 1:57
  Speaker 3: and the only way we'll know is if we make
• 1:59
  Speaker 3: new his in GM Anuary, which is our bet. In
• 2:01
  Speaker 3: the next eight weeks, we're going to shatter the bitcoin
• 2:06
  Speaker 3: four year cycle.
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: There it is, guys, in the next eight weeks. Here
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: we are recording this on December the fifth, eight weeks
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: from now, we will shatter the bitcoin four year cycle
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: facade that has been out there forever. Literally. And Tom
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: Lee goes on because now he's comparing BM and R
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: to micro Strategy.
• 2:26
  Speaker 3: Take a look, you guys think no one cares about
• 2:28
  Speaker 3: micro strategy. Micro Strategy today is the seventeenth most traded stock,
• 2:34
  Speaker 3: more trading volume than JP Morgan.
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: For instance.
• 2:37
  Speaker 3: Bitmine was created three months ago. It's the thirty ninth
• 2:41
  Speaker 3: most traded stock in America today, and we can see
• 2:43
  Speaker 3: that here. Micro Strategy is three point six billion a day.
• 2:47
  Speaker 3: Bitmine's one point five billion a day. And that's where
• 2:50
  Speaker 3: micro Strategy and bitmin are pursuing different strategies.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: All right, So I agree with Tom. What we're dealing
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: with here is the future of eth. The future of
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: eth is clearly securities token I securities RWA Bitcoin. Of course,
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: when you look at micro strategy, it's locked into a
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: certain ecosystem. I get the point that it's accelerated much faster,
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: so I'll agree with that. I want to go to
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: this next clip because this gets into the yield strategy
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: that's in play right now with micro strategy, take a look.
• 3:18
  Speaker 4: We simply raise capital at the cost of credit. The
• 3:22
  Speaker 4: company pays out eight hundred million dollars of dividends a year.
• 3:26
  Speaker 4: What we did this week was we raised a one
• 3:29
  Speaker 4: point four to four billion dollar US dollar reserve and
• 3:33
  Speaker 4: that gives us twenty one months of dividends. We did
• 3:35
  Speaker 4: that so that we could pay the dividends without selling
• 3:38
  Speaker 4: equities or BTC. You could think of it as we
• 3:41
  Speaker 4: can hold our breath for twenty one months. If you
• 3:44
  Speaker 4: want investor protections, you get nine percent. If you're willing
• 3:48
  Speaker 4: to waive them, you get twelve point nine percent.
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: All right, So there's the yield strategy in general. I
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: think this is high risk because it does put a
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: window on Bitcoin. Granted, if Tom Lee is right, bitcoin
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: could see all time highs and possibly go parabolic in
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: the next year two to years. So again Sailor may
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: end up on the right side of the trade. Again
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: as this plays out. Now Tom Lee is going with
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: a different yield strategy. Listen to what he had to say.
• 4:14
  Speaker 3: We have maven our staking solution, and when it's fully implemented,
• 4:19
  Speaker 3: we should generate about two point nine percent Staking yield
• 4:23
  Speaker 3: on our ethereum holdings. That's about four hundred million dollars
• 4:27
  Speaker 3: a year in net income one point three million dollars
• 4:29
  Speaker 3: a day, and it's done with a completely clean balance sheet.
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: So, as you can see, there's a couple of variations here.
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: The exposure risk that Sailor has set up with a
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: new instrument gives you kind of a flat rate. What
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: Tom is doing, of course, is still exposing you to
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: the volatility some people like that, but still having a
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: yield strategy overall. So this does kind of give you
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: some options of how you play either side of this.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: Michael Sailor explains a little bit more on how he
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  Speaker 1: came up with this yield strategy. Listen, this one.
• 5:00
  Speaker 4: Nobody ever created a variable rate preferred equity until we
• 5:05
  Speaker 4: did it. The reason we were able to do it
• 5:07
  Speaker 4: is we had digital intelligence. I designed this with AI.
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  Speaker 4: It never would have come to market if I didn't
• 5:13
  Speaker 4: have AI. Because the lawyers told us they'd never done
• 5:16
  Speaker 4: it before. The banker said, we've never done it before.
• 5:18
  Speaker 4: Everybody else says it never been done, it can't be done,
• 5:21
  Speaker 4: it won't be done. And I said, well, all the
• 5:24
  Speaker 4: lawyers of the bankers say it can't be done. Can
• 5:26
  Speaker 4: it be done? The AI said, yeah, of course it
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  Speaker 4: could be done. It's very straightforward. Do this and this
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  Speaker 4: and this.
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: You can convince people.
• 5:31
  Speaker 4: You just need to have a lot of intelligence on
• 5:33
  Speaker 4: your side. So we use modern technology to develop this.
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: People will probably look at the You're probably gonna be
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: in the comments talking about AI helped him do this crazy,
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: this is out of control. But when you look at
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: new innovations in the market. I'm not defending what Saylor
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: is doing because it could be a train wreck starting
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: to happen because his bankers and lawyers are out there
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: trying to say, hey, this is not necessarily the greatest
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: thing to go in this direction. However, they found whatever
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: loophole that they could to get this executed. The key here,
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: whether he's right or he's wrong, is that we are
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: going to see a lot of new innovations when it
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: comes to these financial instruments. It's just going to come guys.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: Some are going to win, some are going to lose. Now,
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: I want to talk a little bit further what Michael
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: Saylor is trying to do with his ten percent because
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: he thinks everybody's going to go for this. Let's take
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: a look.
• 6:20
  Speaker 4: What do you want? If you walk down the street
• 6:22
  Speaker 4: and you ask one hundred people, what do you want?
• 6:26
  Speaker 4: Do you want to get thirty or forty percent a
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  Speaker 4: year with forty volatility, you know between one and five?
• 6:34
  Speaker 4: Say yeah, I could put some of my money into that.
• 6:36
  Speaker 4: But a lot of people are afraid. If you ask
• 6:38
  Speaker 4: the average person, would you like a bank account to
• 6:41
  Speaker 4: pay you ten percent? Everybody wants that, all right?
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: So I mean he has an argument, and Seiler usually
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: does have arguments. But I think the key here is
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: as things start to brew well already have brewed into
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: tokenized treasuries, eth is going to be the recipient of
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: all of that. I'm just looking here quickly on token
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  Speaker 1: ized treasury over almost we're going in to where he
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: could be at nine billion soon and it's still earning
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  Speaker 1: significant amounts. And of course Eth is the controlling factor
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  Speaker 1: right now over almost half of this right now. And remember, guys,
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: we did a whole video on this on stable coin
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  Speaker 1: yield strategy. You can go back and take a look
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: at that. But there's many ways in which you can
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: go out and earn these kinds of interest with little
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: or no risk. In reference to stable coin yield strategy,
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: so it's already in the market. How to compete against that,
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: I don't know if Sailor has got the ticket for that.
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: Now I'm going to go with a clip that basically
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: talks about smart contracts, and it's really what Sailor is
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: trying to do versus what Tom Lee knows can be done.
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: Take a look.
• 7:43
  Speaker 4: They're on a foundation of bitcoin. We're going to see
• 7:46
  Speaker 4: digital credit spread into every single market, and it's going
• 7:50
  Speaker 4: to fix the banking system. The winner is the bitcoin
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  Speaker 4: holder in the bitcoin community.
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  Speaker 3: The majority of this, the vast majority, is being built
• 7:58
  Speaker 3: on Ethereum. If you guys know Eric Vorhees, he was
• 8:02
  Speaker 3: one of the original bitcoin developers. Even he has said
• 8:05
  Speaker 3: Ethereum has won the smart contract war if Fusaka upgrade
• 8:09
  Speaker 3: was completed, So again Ethereum is increasing its capabilities.
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: So kind of backing up what Lee is saying there.
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  Speaker 1: Interesting that I mentioned Eric Vorhees because he's kind of
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: been an og in the space for quite some time
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: and somewhat lined up with bitcoins. So for him to
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: say eth is winning, that's a big deal. And if
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: you look at token's private credit, well it's all living
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: on ethereum, and it's not slowing down. So I would
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: say right now that Sailor's probably wrong on that point
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: in essence of where growth is going to be. Now,
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: I want to go to this next clip because this
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: is where we get on Tom Lee versus Ethereum. Take
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: a look.
• 8:44
  Speaker 3: You could have said I want to own the SMP
• 8:48
  Speaker 3: and you would have tripled your money. You could have
• 8:50
  Speaker 3: bought gold or quadrupled your money. But if you bought
• 8:53
  Speaker 3: bitcoin ten years ago, which is right around the time
• 8:55
  Speaker 3: we started recommending it to funstrack clients, you had one
• 8:58
  Speaker 3: hundred and twelve x outperforming Bitcoin was ethereum, which was
• 9:04
  Speaker 3: almost a five hundred times return of your money.
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: So as you can see there, Tom Lee very confident
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: that really the better play right now, based on where
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: we are in this market and in this kind of
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: technology innovation that's stepping forward is eth clearly is what
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: he was pointing to. Now, I want to go to
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: one of the other keynotes that was at this event.
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: You guys will recognize it, but it was basically c
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: Z versus Peter shift. This was bitcoin versus gold. Listen
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: to what Cz and Peter had to say.
• 9:32
  Speaker 4: Take a look Bitcoin buys forty percent fewer ounces as
• 9:36
  Speaker 4: of goal today, So that it did four years ago.
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: Go did better than bigcoin the last four years, four
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: years a lot better. How about eight years?
• 9:42
  Speaker 4: No?
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: No, but here let me finish the point that I'm thinking.
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: If you compare two assets, you can pick any random
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: time period. I ask it, well about random. I'm just
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: picking the high from four years ago. But my point
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: is I have a magic box. If we can get
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: that up. The staatee hit what is that?
• 9:57
  Speaker 4: He has a certificate one thousand grand fine gold ninety
• 10:02
  Speaker 4: nine point nine point nine.
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: Yes, yes, heavy? Is it real gold? Oh? No, well,
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: I mean you know, I mean, is this what you're
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: trying to I mean, let's see how it looks.
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I mean probably, you know, maybe it's
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: not real gold. I want to give it to you,
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: but I don't know. If you can take it out
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: of the country. I can put that in my in
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: my in my bag. No one's going to care. Sure, yeah, no,
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: some countries will put you in jail.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: Thought about if I tell him I got it from you,
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: what do you.
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: Even bigger trouble? But you said that the gold is
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: always there how much gold is there in the world.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: Well, I don't have to know exactly, but I know
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: it's pretty scarce, and the supply grows relatively slowly.
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: We don't know, right, we don't know. Well, no, I
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: don't know how much is in the Earth's crust. And
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: we're so close to get you over. I would be
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: so sure about that. I don't want to give the
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: whole piece. I can give a little bits, but I
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: can't like you know, well, that's why that's why you
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: talk organize it.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: All right, So at least they agreed on one thing,
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: because I think Peter pretty much was getting dissed a
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: little bit there by Cez, and they were simple questions
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: that gold bugs have always had to answer. This is
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: why I don't know why Peter wasn't prepared for that.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: You can't transport it. The problem of fractional only goes
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: into the blockchain. And then if you look at the
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: authenticity side of things, we know obviously that the blockchain
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: is a different story. So a CZ I think won
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: that one. If you look at what's winning right now,
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: token ized commodities are winning, and that of course is gold,
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: and it's setting right over there on Tether continuing to
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: control the market, Paxos right behind it. This is the
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: answer for gold, and I think if anything, Peter will
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: probably come to realization that this is the solution for
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: gold in the future. That might be the key to
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: help gold get to the next level. Tom also gone
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: went into where this is why ethan Bitcoin's ratio will flip.
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: Take a look at this one.
• 11:55
  Speaker 3: We got very involved with Ethereum by turning bitmind into
• 11:59
  Speaker 3: any theory treasury company because we saw this breakout coming.
• 12:03
  Speaker 3: The Ethereum bitcoin ratio we think is also going to
• 12:06
  Speaker 3: have a breakout. If twenty twenty five is about tokenization,
• 12:09
  Speaker 3: that means Ethereum's utility value should be rising.
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: Therefore, you should watch this ratio.
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: All right, So keep an eye on this because the
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: ratio is what he is betting on based on these
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: highs that many people would say Tom Lee's wrong. Well,
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: the correlation has really been around the bitcoin eighth ratio.
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: So Tom goes on a little bit further on a
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: price analysis here, and the key is back to this ratio. Specifically,
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: what's going on with eth and bitcoin. Take a look
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: what I had to say.
• 12:40
  Speaker 3: So I think Bitcoin's going to get to two hundred
• 12:42
  Speaker 3: fifty thousand within a few months. And if ethereum price
• 12:47
  Speaker 3: ratio to Bitcoin gets back to its eight year average,
• 12:50
  Speaker 3: that's twelve thousand dollars for ethereum.
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's huge move.
• 12:55
  Speaker 3: If it gets to the twenty twenty one highs, that's
• 12:58
  Speaker 3: twenty two thousand dollars for ethereum, But if it gets
• 13:01
  Speaker 3: to point two five relative to Bitcoin, that's sixty two thousand.
• 13:04
  Speaker 3: So I think ethereum at three thousand, of course, is
• 13:08
  Speaker 3: grossly undervalued.
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: Grossly undervalue. You saw as bear as bull and his
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: mod case right there, all the way up into close
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: to sixty five k for ETH. Now again, this all
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: plays into breaking the four year cycle, changing the ratio
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: and flipping into the utility side of where ETH is
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: all going. And that's exactly what Lee has been touting
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: for quite some time. So his analysis now is really
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: built on one thing, and that is how do we
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: deal with this? On the next layer, where is the
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: price and should we buy? Now? Take a look.
• 13:42
  Speaker 3: Tom has advised us to dramatically slow our ethereum purchases,
• 13:47
  Speaker 3: and you can see our ethereum purchases spelled by half
• 13:50
  Speaker 3: to fifty thousand a week, but we've begun to buy
• 13:54
  Speaker 3: etherum again. You can see last week we bought almost
• 13:57
  Speaker 3: one hundred thousand, eighth twice what we did too weeks before.
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: I will give you a hint. We definitely bought more
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: than that this week.
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: All right, So you guys, let me know if you're
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: buying ETH right now. If you look at where ETH
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: has been over the last few weeks, that of course
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: is the weekly chart that we're looking at. The balance
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: is here because we came off of that twenty seven
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: hundred range, holding in right now around three K. Let
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: me know in the comments. Is this the time that
• 14:24
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