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Republicans starting to worry Dems will flip the Senate in November · DEEP INSIGHT

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  Speaker 1: Talking about joining US Democratic strategists and Polster and ms
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  Speaker 1: NOW political analysts Cornell Belcher, Sam Steins still with us. Cornell,
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  Speaker 1: how do things look.
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  Speaker 2: Well? I think right now it is. It looks It's
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  Speaker 2: still a tough map. I think though atmospherically, Trump's Trump
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  Speaker 2: and his policies have opened the doorway for us even
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  Speaker 2: begin having this conversation, because if you look at what's happening,
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  Speaker 2: particularly with independent voters and then a lot of these
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  Speaker 2: battleground these battleground states, what you're talking about is which
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  Speaker 2: way are independent voter shifting depending on the poll that
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  Speaker 2: you're looking at. You know, Donald Trump on handling most
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  Speaker 2: of the major issues that that independent voters care about,
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  Speaker 2: He's underwater by better than twenty points on whether it's
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  Speaker 2: the economy or inflation. You know, these affordability and his
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  Speaker 2: overall pool numbers have hit all time lows. The moderate
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  Speaker 2: middle swath of the electorate is moving away from Trump
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  Speaker 2: and his presidency made and that's made really tough for
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  Speaker 2: Republicans because Trump continues to be the center of all
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  Speaker 2: the news conversations. Look as a Democrat, I've seen Democrat
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  Speaker 2: numbers move up and down, although I've never seen them
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  Speaker 2: sink like this, but Democrats could always distance themselves from
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  Speaker 2: the top of the ticket. Trump makes it really hard
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  Speaker 2: for Republicans to distance themselves on the top of the ticket.
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  Speaker 2: I think that's opening up this conversation.
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  Speaker 1: I wonder when you look at the races that are
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  Speaker 1: currently now in play. You've got Maine for Susan Collins's
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  Speaker 1: seat that's been long desired by Democrats. You have Texas,
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  Speaker 1: obviously also long desired. Ohio is an interesting place because
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  Speaker 1: you have a very popular former or at least he
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  Speaker 1: was a very popular former senator running again. If you're
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  Speaker 1: looking at all these races, Cornell, which ones are you
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  Speaker 1: most hopeful about? And I would also, even though we're
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  Speaker 1: not seeing it here it I would also include Iowa
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  Speaker 1: because that's an open seat replaced johny Ernst.
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  Speaker 2: Open seas are always opportunities because as you know, Katie, look,
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  Speaker 2: it's hard to be an incumbent, and you know the
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  Speaker 2: vast majority of incumbents win re election. So it's an
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  Speaker 2: open seat, it's a it becomes becomes a real battle.
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  Speaker 2: But if you look at North Carolina, look and look,
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  Speaker 2: and I'll give kudos to Senate Democrats and Chuck Schumer
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  Speaker 2: for recruiting because a lot of these races comes down
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  Speaker 2: to to the candidate. Well, we can talk about a
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  Speaker 2: lot of you know, outside atmospheric, but if you don't
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  Speaker 2: have a good candidate, it's hard to win. Democrats have
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  Speaker 2: good candidates in all the season. Even in Alaska, right
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  Speaker 2: Democrats have landed a good candidate. And when you look
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  Speaker 2: at North Carolina with a popular former governor Cooper, they're
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  Speaker 2: deciding to run for Senate and Democrats have recruited Roy
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  Speaker 2: Cooper to run for Senate, that is that that's going
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  Speaker 2: to be a hard seat for Republicans to hold on
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  Speaker 2: to again going into an open seat scenario, and you
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  Speaker 2: have a very popular former Democratic governor there in that
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  Speaker 2: state where people talk about all the good things they
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  Speaker 2: saw him do as governor, and the governors, you know,
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  Speaker 2: on the plus side, I think that is a really
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  Speaker 2: tough seat for them to hold on to there and
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  Speaker 2: purplish and purplish North Carolina.
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  Speaker 1: Let me ask you Sam about Alaska because Lisa Murkowski
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  Speaker 1: obviously has been really interesting during the Trump years. When
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  Speaker 1: there have been votes against Donald Trump, usually it's come
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  Speaker 1: from her and a couple others. She's also flirted with
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  Speaker 1: the idea of becoming an independent. If the race in
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  Speaker 1: Alaska against Mary Poltola gets tougher for her in the
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  Speaker 1: coming months, do you think it's out of the question
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  Speaker 1: for her to take up that interest in becoming an
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  Speaker 1: independent again.
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  Speaker 3: Well, she it's Dan Sullivan who's running against.
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  Speaker 1: I'm sorry, sorry, it's.
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  Speaker 3: Okay, no worries. I'm here to help. But you do
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  Speaker 3: raise an interesting point about Markowski, which is she has
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  Speaker 3: been independent minded. The state is not like totally unconventional. Obviously,
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  Speaker 3: it's voted heavily Republican, but there are enough people there
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  Speaker 3: who are independent minded as well. And then on top
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  Speaker 3: of that, there's been some reported overtures from Senator Schumer
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  Speaker 3: about whether or not she'd be willing to switch parties. Now,
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  Speaker 3: who knows what happens in the next year or so.
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  Speaker 3: I don't think it's all that likely, but it's not
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  Speaker 3: totally unplausible for her to be sort of tempted by
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  Speaker 3: the idea. And certainly Donald Trump has done very little
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  Speaker 3: to make her feel courted, right. I mean, he's gone
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  Speaker 3: out of his way, he's bashed her, he's forced her
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  Speaker 3: to take incredibly tough votes. There's been a couple instances
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  Speaker 3: where he's helped her out. For instance, on the Big
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  Speaker 3: Beautiful Bill, there were some carve outs for Alaska in there.
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  Speaker 3: But she seems increasingly like she's a senator without necessarily
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  Speaker 3: an easy party to fit into, and in a situation
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  Speaker 3: where that Senat is really tight, let's say it's fifty
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  Speaker 3: to fifty, you can see a real play being made
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  Speaker 3: for her to actually switch parties. And there is precedent
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  Speaker 3: for this happening in the past, long ago. Jim Jefferds
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  Speaker 3: of Vermont's switched during the early George W. Bush administration,
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  Speaker 3: tilt of the power of the Senate. Not saying it's
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  Speaker 3: going to happen, but these conversations do happen.
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  Speaker 1: Okay, I'm a little embarrassed about that Lisa Murkowski flip.
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  Speaker 1: She's not running against twenty twenty eight. I'm sorry about that.
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  Speaker 1: I got my eights and my six is mixed up.
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  Speaker 3: It's your first. It's the first mistake I've ever seen
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  Speaker 3: you make. So this is we're here for history.
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  Speaker 1: Honey, you haven't been paying attention, Cornell. I guess what
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  Speaker 1: is the big concern for you as we face November?
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  Speaker 1: I mean, right now, Donald Trump and the party are
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  Speaker 1: really not doing well. And as you mentioned, it's really
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  Speaker 1: hard to run against or away from Donald Trump when
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  Speaker 1: you are in the Republican Party. Do you see any
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  Speaker 1: pitfalls for Democrats? Potential pitfalls? Sam was talking earlier about
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  Speaker 1: how this really should be not a race about democratic
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  Speaker 1: ideas that should come in December, but instead of a
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  Speaker 1: race where the Democrats focus on Donald Trump's failures after all,
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  Speaker 1: usually midterms or recall elections.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, Sam's pretty smart, uh, And by the way it was,
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  Speaker 2: it was it was a good bluff. We ended up
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  Speaker 2: having a great conversation about Lisa Murkowski, which we won't
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  Speaker 2: have again. I guarantee you if it's if it's fifty
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  Speaker 2: to fifty. But yeah, there are pitfalls. And part of
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  Speaker 2: that pitfall is, look, you know, Democrats, it's not like
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  Speaker 2: voters have grown in love with Democrats, right and you
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  Speaker 2: and you look at the ceiling is you know, the
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  Speaker 2: florest fallout under under Republicans, especially with independent voters. But
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  Speaker 2: but if you look at Democratic sort of favorability and
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  Speaker 2: appruval numbers, they're not that great. So from and and
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  Speaker 2: young voters, who always been a big part of our
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  Speaker 2: ability to get massive turnout. You know, the young voters
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  Speaker 2: are still drifting more independent and certainly not not falling
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  Speaker 2: in love with Democrats. However, to that broader point, Uh,
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  Speaker 2: this is going to be a referendum on Donald Trump,
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  Speaker 2: and Donald Trump is hoping Democrats make this a referendum
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  Speaker 2: on him. If I were a Republican, you know, I'd
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  Speaker 2: be hoping that Donald Trump pulls back and pulls away
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  Speaker 2: and stops dominating the news so they can actually have
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  Speaker 2: a have a conversation about some of their policy ideas.
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  Speaker 2: Although if you look at what Congress has passed Cay,
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  Speaker 2: they haven't passed anything that that that that that the
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  Speaker 2: public lacks of or or massively improves of. But it
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  Speaker 2: becomes a better contest for them if it's not a
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  Speaker 2: referendum on Donald Trump. But right now it's looking likes
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  Speaker 2: of a referend on Donald Trump, and Donald Trump is
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  Speaker 2: helping Democrats make that case.