Latest / Pod Save America / What Undecided Voters Think of Kamala Harris (Ep. 6)

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What Undecided Voters Think of Kamala Harris (Ep. 6) · Pod Save America

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: America has tried these failed economic policies before, but we
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: are not going back. We are not going back.
• 0:12
  Speaker 2: Not going back.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: We're not going back. We're not going back.
• 0:26
  Speaker 3: Okay, so new vibes here on The Wilderness. Our last
• 0:29
  Speaker 3: show was just after the debate that has now changed
• 0:32
  Speaker 3: the course of history. With just over three months to
• 0:35
  Speaker 3: go in the 2024 election, President Biden withdrew from the race,
• 0:38
  Speaker 3: and Vice President Kamala Harris is now the new presumptive
• 0:41
  Speaker 3: Democratic nominee. Biden dropping out this close to the election
• 0:45
  Speaker 3: is a truly shocking development that has no precedent in U.S. history.
• 0:51
  Speaker 3: But if you've listened to the show for the last
• 0:53
  Speaker 3: few years, you might not have been surprised that it
• 0:55
  Speaker 3: was the persistent, widespread concerns about the president's age that
• 1:00
  Speaker 3: eventually led him to pass the torch. Concerns that didn't
• 1:03
  Speaker 3: originate with the media or pundits or elected officials, but
• 1:07
  Speaker 3: with the voters. Republican and Democratic voters of every age, race,
• 1:11
  Speaker 3: and background. Especially people who haven't decided who they're voting
• 1:15
  Speaker 3: for or whether they'll vote at all. This was true
• 1:19
  Speaker 3: of the voters we heard from before the midterms last season.
• 1:22
  Speaker 3: It's been true this season. And it's why listening to
• 1:25
  Speaker 3: the kind of voters who will decide this election is
• 1:27
  Speaker 3: so valuable and important. Because we can't persuade people without
• 1:31
  Speaker 3: first meeting them where they are and hearing what's on
• 1:33
  Speaker 3: their minds. So that's what we're going to keep doing
• 1:37
  Speaker 3: for the rest of the season. Only now, we'll be
• 1:39
  Speaker 3: focused on what it will take to persuade enough people
• 1:42
  Speaker 3: to make Kamala Harris the next president of the United States.
• 1:46
  Speaker 3: The race is still extremely close, and the VP starts
• 1:49
  Speaker 3: as a bit of an underdog. though she's already in
• 1:52
  Speaker 3: a stronger position to defeat Trump than Biden was, especially
• 1:55
  Speaker 3: after the debate. The impressions voters have of her also
• 1:59
  Speaker 3: aren't as hardened as they are with Biden or Trump.
• 2:02
  Speaker 3: And so the race between the Harris campaign and the
• 2:04
  Speaker 3: Trump campaign to define the VP in the last hundred
• 2:07
  Speaker 3: days of the election is on. One person who's been
• 2:12
  Speaker 3: frantically talking to more swing voters than just about anyone
• 2:15
  Speaker 3: over the course of the last week is our friend
• 2:17
  Speaker 3: Sarah Longwell. the Never Trump publisher of The Bulwark and
• 2:20
  Speaker 3: host of the Focus Group podcast. We asked Sarah to
• 2:23
  Speaker 3: come back and talk about what voters think of our
• 2:25
  Speaker 3: new Democratic nominee and what we can all say to
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  Speaker 3: persuade the persuadables in our lives to vote for Kamala Harris.
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  Speaker 3: Let's get into it. I'm Jon Favreau. Welcome to the wilderness. Sarah,
• 2:43
  Speaker 3: welcome back to the wilderness.
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: Oh, I'm so glad to be here. Can't wait. Let's talk.
• 2:47
  Speaker 3: Safe to say quite a bit has changed in the
• 2:49
  Speaker 3: eight weeks since we last spoke on this pod. Wanted
• 2:52
  Speaker 3: to have you on again because I know you've been
• 2:53
  Speaker 3: doing a lot of focus groups with persuadable voters, especially
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: since the debate. And I've heard a lot about the
• 2:58
  Speaker 3: new presumptive Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris. What groups
• 3:03
  Speaker 3: of voters have you guys talked to recently? And how
• 3:06
  Speaker 3: many groups have you done since Biden dropped out and
• 3:09
  Speaker 3: endorsed Harris?
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  Speaker 2: OK, great question. So after the debate, I'll start there.
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  Speaker 2: We like went on a focus grouping tear. And I
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: really wanted to dig in with both swing voters then,
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  Speaker 2: but also with black voters. And so we did a
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: lot of black voter groups, especially we did two groups
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: of black voting women, because I was really trying to
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: understand both. What was the fear around if Joe Biden
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: dropped out like we'd have the first female black president.
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: And so what was the resistance to that? Because the
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: campaign was really leaning on this idea that black voters
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: were with him. And then I did a lot of
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: swing voters because that's who I tend to talk to.
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: A lot of the Trump 2016 to Joe Biden 2020 voters.
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  Speaker 2: And then since Harris got in, we've also been trying
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: to get as many in as possible. I think we've
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: done four.
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  Speaker 3: Okay, that's a lot.
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: And all swing voter groups. And yeah, that's what we got.
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  Speaker 3: So before we get to Harris- In general, how did
• 4:01
  Speaker 3: people feel about Biden post-debate? Did any of them think
• 4:04
  Speaker 3: that the media coverage was overblown? Did any of them
• 4:07
  Speaker 3: think he should stay? What were the vibes like in July?
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  Speaker 2: So the two different groups, the swing voter groups, have
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: been down on Biden now for months and years. I mean,
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  Speaker 2: I don't know when the last time we talked, but
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  Speaker 2: I never thought Biden should run again. And I didn't
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: think Biden should run again because I'd been listening to
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: voters in these focus groups for so long. And I
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: was seeing a ton of of backsliding. And by a ton, look,
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: when you have roughly half the group or even three
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: or four people in a group of eight who had
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: gone from Trump, voted for Biden, and now say they
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: were going back to Trump, almost entirely because of Joe
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: Biden's age, something he was not gonna be able to change,
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: a little bit of economy thrown in there, but they
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: were just down on Biden. And so now I would
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: say after the debate, it got just much more catastrophic
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: in the language. And people were mean. They would say
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: things like, he's an animatronic, waxwork, they forgot to wind up.
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  Speaker 2: They would call him a corpse. They would talk about
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: how desperate they were over the choice. It was like
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: an insurrectionist versus somebody who's not even there. And so
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  Speaker 2: I would say there is a level of excitement, over
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: this change, even from swing voters who aren't there yet
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  Speaker 2: on Kamala, they're still so happy about it.
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  Speaker 3: That's interesting.
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  Speaker 2: They're glad that Biden stepped down. But you know, we
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: all got ourselves in trouble. We are the podcasters. I mean,
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  Speaker 2: I really think they meant you, but we were among
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  Speaker 2: the podcasters who were like, he's got to step down.
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  Speaker 2: And a lot of it was because of what I
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: was hearing from these voters who, they're the double haters, right?
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  Speaker 2: And Joe Biden had to turn it around with them.
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  Speaker 2: He had to. And when he failed to do it
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: and it just got worse- There was no path. But
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  Speaker 2: then let me just talk about the black voters quickly,
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: because I thought the black voters were super interesting in
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: that we were hearing from people that black voters under
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  Speaker 2: no circumstances wanted Joe Biden to step down. That's not
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  Speaker 2: really what we heard. All the swing voters wanted him
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  Speaker 2: to step down, all of them. In the black voting groups,
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  Speaker 2: there was a lot of fear. about what was coming
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: for Kamala if it was her. And there was some
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  Speaker 2: sort of loyalty. But for the Black voters, we're just like,
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  Speaker 2: I don't know. It feels better to have an old
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  Speaker 2: white guy because if it's Kamala, they're going to tear
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: her apart. They're going to be awful to her. And
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: you could see the fear, like how much they were
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: going to feel it when they came for Kamala.
• 6:19
  Speaker 3: Yeah. I think we have a clip from one of
• 6:23
  Speaker 3: those groups of Black voters that you did before the handoff.
• 6:26
  Speaker 3: So let's listen.
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  Speaker 4: We saw what happened to Clinton. And this time it's
• 6:30
  Speaker 4: a Black woman. So now we throw something else on
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  Speaker 4: top of it. I don't see that going well. And honestly,
• 6:35
  Speaker 4: just Black woman to Black woman, I feel for her.
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  Speaker 4: Even President Barack Obama, like, he's a man.
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  Speaker 1: And it.
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  Speaker 2: Was horrible, like, people's reactions to him winning.
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  Speaker 5: It was horrible.
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  Speaker 4: And then, as people mentioned already, Hillary Clinton. Like, if
• 6:52
  Speaker 4: we were going to do a woman, it would have
• 6:54
  Speaker 4: to be a white woman first.
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  Speaker 3: So this was a group of black voters you talked
• 6:59
  Speaker 3: to a few weeks ago who supported Hillary Clinton in
• 7:02
  Speaker 3: 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020. So these are like
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: strong Biden, now maybe Harris voters. Were those views indicative
• 7:10
  Speaker 3: of what other groups said about Harris? Like what are
• 7:13
  Speaker 3: some other impressions voters have about Harris that they had
• 7:16
  Speaker 3: sort of before the handoff?
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  Speaker 2: So the black voting group was pretty specific, especially the women,
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  Speaker 2: the two groups of women, black voters, because for them,
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  Speaker 2: it clearly felt very personal. A lot of them talked
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: about how black men that they knew didn't like Kamala Harris.
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  Speaker 2: And I honestly, I remember feeling really sad after those groups,
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: just listening to how much these women cared. felt like
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  Speaker 2: it had to be Biden because they were like, America's
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  Speaker 2: just not going to elect a Black woman. I mean,
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  Speaker 2: you heard them say it. And they were like, look,
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  Speaker 2: if we're going to go beat Trump, we need sort
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: of like the straightest, whitest. And somebody was using the
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: phrase Superman. Like, I felt sad that people felt so
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  Speaker 2: certain that America would be so against a woman or
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  Speaker 2: a Black woman. Like, it didn't even seem to be
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  Speaker 2: specific to Kamala. It was just about America and what
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: America would and would not accept. But what's been interesting
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  Speaker 2: to me is how I think excitement can be really contagious, right?
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  Speaker 2: People were being dominated by a lot of fear in
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  Speaker 2: those weeks. People were so nervous. And you can see
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  Speaker 2: now that once it was Kamala— And once she showed up,
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  Speaker 2: you could just see how when somebody is showing up, right,
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  Speaker 2: and they're going on offense, people are like, you know what?
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  Speaker 2: I'm ready to rock. I'm ready to rock with you. And, like,
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  Speaker 2: I bet if we go back to those Black women
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  Speaker 2: groups and ask them again, I bet right now, I
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: bet they're doing calls for Kamala. You know, they're ready
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  Speaker 2: to go. Because certainly that's, I think, broadly what is happening.
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  Speaker 2: I don't know about that specific group. I think they
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: would still probably be like, fuck. you know, I'm nervous
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  Speaker 2: about how this is going to go. And they're calling her,
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  Speaker 2: you know, a DEI president. But I think that instead
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: of the fear that they felt then, now they would
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  Speaker 2: feel ready to go on offense with her.
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  Speaker 3: So we dealt with something similar way back in 2007
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  Speaker 3: with Barack Obama and that like his numbers with black
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  Speaker 3: voters weren't that great. And in some polls early on,
• 9:00
  Speaker 3: they were worse than Hillary's. And the reason is because
• 9:04
  Speaker 3: there was this fear that that he wasn't going to
• 9:07
  Speaker 3: be able to win. And it wasn't until he wins
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  Speaker 3: the Iowa caucuses and a bunch of white people came
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  Speaker 3: out and caucus for him that suddenly the enthusiasm and
• 9:16
  Speaker 3: excitement among black voters was like, okay, maybe we can
• 9:19
  Speaker 3: do this. Like still had this fear, right? But like,
• 9:22
  Speaker 3: this feels good. I think we could do this. And
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  Speaker 3: so like it's something similar happening now. She of course
• 9:26
  Speaker 3: has the added challenge of sexism in addition to latent
• 9:31
  Speaker 3: racism as well. So that's tougher. What are some other
• 9:34
  Speaker 3: impressions of Kamala Harris been with the swing voters you've
• 9:38
  Speaker 3: spoken to?
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  Speaker 1: Yeah.
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  Speaker 2: So the number one thing you hear about Kamala Harris
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  Speaker 2: is the idea that people just, they're like, I don't
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: see her. What does she even do? Like, I don't
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: know anything about her. There's this sense of, I don't know,
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: maybe I thought she was going to be okay. And
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: then I never saw her again once she became the
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: vice president. So that creates for them sort of a
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: negative impression. It's not a locked in anti-Kamala. It's just
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: a negative impression. And then there's a step up above
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: that that's more committed that is like, she didn't do
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: anything about the border. She was supposed to do X, Y,
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: or Z, but has done nothing. Now, I just haven't
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: seen her. I don't know much about her. It was
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: so pervasive, though, that I think for a long time,
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: I was like, look, voters don't like Kamala Harris. But
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: when we had to sort of face the choice of
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: Biden stepping down and understanding that, like, the idea of
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: an open convention is going to get tough and whatever.
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: And you started thinking about Kamala. And I started listening
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: to the voters almost with sometimes you put different ears on,
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: you know, because the world changes. And you're like, I
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: want to think really hard about what they're saying about
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: Kamala right now. And I just thought, actually, there's a
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: lot of upside here. Most people aren't saying they hate her.
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: Most people aren't saying. Yeah. she did this or that
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: that makes them mad. They have this like loose impression
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: out of mostly out of an absence of something, which
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: means she could reintroduce herself to the country. She has
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: a chance here to redefine herself with these people because
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: some people have a committed negative impression, but most people
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: just have like an absent negative impression.
• 11:08
  Speaker 3: So in the groups that you've done this week, since
• 11:12
  Speaker 3: Harris has become the presumptive nominee, are these mostly Trump
• 11:16
  Speaker 3: to Biden swing voters, mixed races as well?
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: Yes, they are mixed race. So most of the groups
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: are mixed race often. We just wanted to do very
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: specific groups of black voters after the debate because there
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: was that specific conversation happening.
• 11:31
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Here's what I would say about the swing voters
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: right now. they're nervous. Like they're catching up. They're not
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: terminally online like the rest of us. And so we're
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: moving at the speed of light of things. And they're
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: still being like, whoa, this happened. Biden stepped down. Kamala,
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: is she going to be the nominee? Like they're still
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: kind of like, will it be her? You know, they
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: heard so much about open conventions. But here's the things
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: that I would say, the few things that I'm hearing thematically.
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: One is for people who are negative, I would say
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: one of the most negative things we're hearing is the
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: idea that there wasn't some form of a primary.
• 12:06
  Speaker 3: I was going to ask. Yeah.
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: There's this sense of like the donors got to pick
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: and our Democrats picked and that doesn't feel fair. We've
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: heard that from some people. Then there's we hear a
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: lot more of the. I don't know her. I don't
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: know that much about her, but I'm going to go
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: find out. Like, I'm interested to learn. I'd like to
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: know more. And it's funny, in the groups, they really
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: are still double haters. And so they do still hate Trump.
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: So they're sort of looking for a reason to like
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: her in a way that they weren't before. This is
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: sort of what I mean about new ears and the
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: way that the context changes, where a bunch of people
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: who kind of had this negative impression of her go, okay,
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: show me what you got. I'm open now. I'm open
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: for business. I'm ready to hear your pitch. And you
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: could hear some of the people say like, I didn't
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: know that much about her, but I assume she'll be
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: good on abortion. And let me just tell you the
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: other thing that's happening with the swing voters is it
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: is happening at the same time that the J.D. Vance
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: stuff is happening. And the J.D. Vance stuff, it is
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: creating a whole new layer of contrast, especially for women.
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: And so suddenly she's also getting a new look in
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: that context.
• 13:14
  Speaker 3: Is the childless cat lady thing popping up in any group?
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: It is.
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: It is.
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: And it's less the cat lady and more just, it's
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: like less specifically that, like the couch thing's not permeating
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: specifically either. But this is what happens when those kind
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: of mean things get going. Here's what people take away.
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: It's less cat lady and more, I don't think he
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: likes women. I think he's crazy on abortion. I think
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: he seems weird. And I'll tell you, we did so
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: many groups in 2022, both for Vance and and on
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: Blake Masters. And back then, I remember how much I
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: thought J.D. Vance, the way that people talked about J.D.
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: Vance and the way people talked about Blake Masters was
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: so similar. They just think they're weird. And J.D. Vance
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: is getting that now too, where people are like, I
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: don't know, this guy sucks. I just think he's kind
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: of a weird, his weird opinions about, oh, and he's
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: extreme on abortion. Like that's what's bringing their, and because
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: of the flip-flopping on Trump, It's not so much that
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: they care one way or the other what he said before.
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: It's just that it's the act of this person must
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: not have any core. Because he said all these things.
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: It wasn't like he said, I don't want to vote
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: for him. He was like, no, he's America's Hitler. Now
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: I'm his vice president.
• 14:24
  Speaker 3: It's a big flip-flop.
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: Like for people, that's not like an evolution. It's just
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: like a really big swing for folks.
• 14:44
  Speaker 3: You mentioned that some people were concerned about the process
• 14:47
  Speaker 3: that led to Harris. Did anyone suggest that there were
• 14:51
  Speaker 3: other nominees they were hoping for? Did they throw out
• 14:54
  Speaker 3: other candidate names or were they just sort of like, eh,
• 14:56
  Speaker 3: how did we get here?
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: No, you know, we were asking a lot about names
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: in the intervening weeks between the debate and when Biden
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: ultimately stepped down. And now we've been asking about BPs.
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: If you are in Pennsylvania, if you are in Pennsylvania,
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: People say Shapiro. We've been disproportionately talking to swing state voters.
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: So if you are in Pennsylvania, they say Shapiro. If
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: you are in Arizona or if they're an Arizona voter,
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: they say astronaut man.
• 15:22
  Speaker 3: Mark Kelly.
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: If they're in Michigan, they say Whitmer. And if you're
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: in Arizona, you don't know who Josh Shapiro is, and
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: vice versa on these folks. And so it wasn't that
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: they had... I think the only name, actually, that ever
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: sort of comes up organically, really, is Michelle Obama. Like,
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: where they put it forward. Because she comes up all
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: the time. I swear to God, if Michelle Obama wanted
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: to save democracy right now.
• 15:44
  Speaker 3: I know, I know.
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: And when people say, like, a black woman couldn't win,
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: I'm telling you, Michelle Obama, run in the tables. I
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: hear her name so often. But the people that come
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: up organically where people do have some name ID, the
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: main things they knew about Whitmer was the kidnapping plot.
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: That did a lot for her with swing voters. People
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: are like, that's cool. You know, she got someone tried
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: to kidnap her. Newsom does come. He's got more name
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: ID than a lot of Democrats, I think, because he
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: does like the Fox News hits. He did the debate.
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: People know who he is. And Pete, people know Pete well.
• 16:15
  Speaker 6: A little bit.
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: And then they immediately tell you that America would ever
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: vote for a gay candidate. So like the voters are
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: so funny because they all do armchair punditry when you
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: start asking them about politics. And one of the things
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: they're very clear on is they think that America is
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: a deeply sexist, deeply racist, deeply homophobic place that will
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: not elect. I happen to think that people are not dearly.
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: as racist, sexist and homophobic as the other people's impressions
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: of them are. But, you know.
• 16:47
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think the election of Trump probably did that
• 16:50
  Speaker 3: for a lot of people, right? Because people are like,
• 16:52
  Speaker 3: how did this guy get elected? Yeah. So let's talk
• 16:55
  Speaker 3: about their views of now Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, not
• 16:58
  Speaker 3: just Vice President Kamala Harris. A big question has been
• 17:02
  Speaker 3: whether the online youthful enthusiasm for Kamala Harris is reaching
• 17:06
  Speaker 3: beyond a very online audience. You talked to one group
• 17:10
  Speaker 3: of Trump-Biden swing voters that suggests maybe it is. Let's listen.
• 17:14
  Speaker 5: It seems like the younger generation, they are more likely
• 17:17
  Speaker 5: to vote for Harris over Biden. That's just a vibe
• 17:21
  Speaker 5: that I get based on what's being posted online and
• 17:24
  Speaker 5: based on what's being shared on social media.
• 17:26
  Speaker 6: I just feel like it'll be like a breath of
• 17:28
  Speaker 6: fresh air. I feel like it'll be like a new
• 17:30
  Speaker 6: beginning instead of feeling like you're watching a rerun because
• 17:33
  Speaker 6: Trump has already been in office. You know what I'm saying?
• 17:36
  Speaker 6: So we already know how that went.
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: She's quick-witted. She's funny. She has a personality. Obviously, being
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: a female, there are people out there that don't want
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: to vote for a female president. I think those same
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: people are ones that would not vote for Biden either.
• 17:50
  Speaker 3: They sound like focus group podcast wilderness listeners. Talk about
• 17:53
  Speaker 3: the punditry. They're just like diving into crosstabs. What other
• 17:59
  Speaker 3: sort of positive things did you hear about Harris? I
• 18:02
  Speaker 3: have to say when I heard someone say Trump is
• 18:04
  Speaker 3: like watching a rerun, I'm like, they should use that.
• 18:07
  Speaker 3: That's good. Yeah.
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: Well, it's the never go back. We're not going back.
• 18:11
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: I mean, I do think that's sort of implicit. I think, look,
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: I'll just this is a little bit of a side thing,
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: but I'm pretty impressed with the out of the gate
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: Harris campaign.
• 18:19
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: I think that not going back is a good, strong
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: message for we don't want Trump again. And it's interesting, actually,
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: because it is one of the things that Trump voters
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: say when they want to say how like, they're not
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: going back to the other Republican party, but it is
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: a deep psychological interest in moving forward and living a
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: life forward that I think they're tapping into that voters like,
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: and obviously Trump is the backward looking. But the main
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: thing is that when they say breath of fresh air,
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: and so they were super, that person was being very
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: positive about comma, and we are hearing positive things from
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: in the focus groups. So like, Let me just go
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: back because a lot of it is me comparing the
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: focus groups from before to the focus groups we're doing now.
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: So like I was saying, there was a ton of backsliding.
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: They were filled with double haters. People were mad about
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: their choices. And now you still get a little bit
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: of backsliding. You still get a bunch of some people
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: being like, well, I think I'm going to vote for
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: Trump because I've been unhappy about the economy or whatever.
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: But they're also saying... but I'm open. Like, tell me more.
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: Because they don't love Trump, these ones. And so we're
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: seeing much less backsliding now. And we're also seeing people
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: who are affirmatively excited. And then we're seeing kind of
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: a middle group that's like, tell me more. I'm here
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: to be interested. We do do head-to-heads. And the head-to-heads,
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: where we basically are like, elections tomorrow, I demand you
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: vote for us. And I think it's been like seven
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: to one. Wow. And so that is much better than
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: the sort of six to three, four, four that we
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: were seeing a lot of in the sort of three
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: weeks after the debate.
• 20:00
  Speaker 3: We have a clip of some of the voters you
• 20:02
  Speaker 3: talk to who are just express some of that concern
• 20:04
  Speaker 3: and worry that the country would elect its first black
• 20:08
  Speaker 3: woman president. Let's listen.
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: Obama's wife. I mean, at least she did some things.
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: I mean, this is his wife. At least she was visible.
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: And I can't, I can't say anything. I forgot that
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: she was the vice president for a while.
• 20:22
  Speaker 5: I don't know her well enough.
• 20:24
  Speaker 2: The positive part is I assume her being a woman,
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: she's going to be looking out for women's rights.
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: She's not going to be throwing women under the bus,
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: trying to put us, you know, stuck at home.
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: Cooking and cleaning.
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 20:38
  Speaker 3: Like, you know, I'll talk about 2025 project.
• 20:40
  Speaker 5: I'm like, oh man, that sounds like where that's headed.
• 20:43
  Speaker 3: What's your take on how race and gender factor into
• 20:47
  Speaker 3: the challenge she's facing with the voters she needs? And like,
• 20:53
  Speaker 3: how do you think she should handle that?
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: So the theory of the case around electing Biden, which,
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: you know, I run Republican voters against Trump. And so
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: I was very invested in, all right, who are the
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: voters we need to move? Who's there with Biden? The
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: reason that the Blue wall states were we all felt
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: like this is ultimately gettable is because Biden was still
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: doing well with old white people. And in Michigan, Pennsylvania
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: and Wisconsin and Nebraska, too, there's a lot of old
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: white people. That's the question. The question is like sort
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: of college educated suburban white people. Kamala with a Kelly
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: or Shapiro or Ed Beshear. Give me any of them.
• 21:29
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: Any white boy summer.
• 21:30
  Speaker 3: White boy summer. Yeah.
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: Any of them, fine. I think that it's these older
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: folks who, a lot of them, they just don't like
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: Trump because Trump, he tried a coup and that's not what,
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: they don't like the January 6th stuff. They don't like
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: that he's a jerk. There's a section of them. I
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: haven't dug in enough to know how much work you
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: have to do to get those voters there. And if
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: they're simply anti-Trump enough that they would say yes, because
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: those aren't the ones that are always like, change. They're
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: just more like, Someone normal, you know, they're not the
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: big change agents. In fact, change freaks them out a
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: little bit. And so those are the voters I'm most
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: worried about now. That being said, I think that she
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: so far, and those are the ones who are also
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: like a lady president, a black lady president, or like,
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: and you don't say your pronouns to those old people.
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: They do not, I don't think you should say your pronouns, period.
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: I do not think that is helpful when you were
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: trying to win an election. She should take her pronouns
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: off of anything she's doing right now.
• 22:29
  Speaker 3: I got that text from your colleague, Tim Miller, too.
• 22:31
  Speaker 3: He's like, she's got the pronouns in the Twitter bio.
• 22:33
  Speaker 3: What can we do about that? What can we do
• 22:35
  Speaker 3: about that?
• 22:35
  Speaker 6: Are they out?
• 22:35
  Speaker 3: It's the Democratic Party. We're not doing anything about that.
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: Did somebody take them out? Oh, no. They should take
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: them out.
• 22:40
  Speaker 3: I know.
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: These are the old people who think that their kids
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: are peeing in litter boxes because they identify as cats
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: in schools or something. You got to deal with that.
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: So anyway, I think here's the thing, though. I.
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: Do you think we overestimate how sexist and racist a
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: lot of these voters are? They can get excited. They
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: will be much more concerned about the San Francisco progressive
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: of it all than the black woman of it all.
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: Because if she shows them that she's tough... that she
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: could prosecute a case against Donald Trump, and that she's
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: not coming for their fracking or their, and she might be,
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: but if she's not gonna leave the border wide open,
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: if she could sort of convince those people of that,
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: and I think that's obviously the tension for any Democrat
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: who runs right now, but this is where I feel
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: like she could have it. I feel like there's desperation
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: of the Democratic base to have her do well, like
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: people are pulling for her, and I feel like she
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: could get some latitude on a few policy issues, maybe
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: not Gaza, but maybe on some energy independence, run on
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: kitchen table issues, talk about the economy, that she wants
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: to be there for everybody, where Trump's there for himself.
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: I think you could start to get there with those people.
• 23:52
  Speaker 3: Well, I totally agree. And I think she will have
• 23:56
  Speaker 3: wide latitude. And I think she will have very few
• 23:59
  Speaker 3: qualms about positioning herself that way. I do wonder about
• 24:04
  Speaker 3: what she says with regard to some of the positions
• 24:07
  Speaker 3: she has taken in the past, especially during the the
• 24:11
  Speaker 3: 2020 primary, where they all went a little nuts. There's
• 24:14
  Speaker 3: Dave McCormick, who's the Senate candidate in Pennsylvania, Republican Senate candidate,
• 24:18
  Speaker 3: ran an ad about all the progressive positions she took.
• 24:21
  Speaker 3: Trump did a similar riff in his rally this week,
• 24:23
  Speaker 3: and he's starting to do ads about this. Let's listen.
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: I am prepared to get rid of the filibuster to
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: pass a green new deal.
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: Abolish ICE.
• 24:31
  Speaker 5: Is that a position you agree with?
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: We need to probably think about starting from scratch.
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: Outdated, it is wrong-headed thinking to think that the only
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: way you're going to get communities to be safe is
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: to put more police officers on the streets.
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: So for people out there who like their insurance, they
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: don't get to keep it?
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: Let's eliminate all of that.
• 24:48
  Speaker 3: Let's move on.
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: I am opposed to any policy. that would deny any
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: human being public health, period.
• 24:55
  Speaker 3: The more people get to know her, they're going to
• 24:58
  Speaker 3: be particularly.
• 24:58
  Speaker 6: Impressed by her ability.
• 24:59
  Speaker 5: We did it.
• 24:59
  Speaker 6: We did it, Joe.
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: Every one of those policy positions, a dagger through my
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: centrist loving heart.
• 25:08
  Speaker 3: Look, I remember, and I'm a big lib, but I
• 25:12
  Speaker 3: remember during the primary when they got to ask the
• 25:15
  Speaker 3: question about decriminalizing border crossings. And they all raised their hands.
• 25:19
  Speaker 3: And I was like, this is not a good position
• 25:22
  Speaker 3: to take.
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: No, no.
• 25:25
  Speaker 3: I don't think this is what we want here, to
• 25:27
  Speaker 3: decriminalize illegal border crossings. But what do you think she
• 25:31
  Speaker 3: can get away with here? Does she just take a
• 25:34
  Speaker 3: mulligan on everything she said in the 2020 campaign? Or
• 25:37
  Speaker 3: does she say, let me tell you what I've done
• 25:40
  Speaker 3: the last four years with Joe Biden, who is my partner.
• 25:43
  Speaker 3: And when I was actually in the White House and
• 25:45
  Speaker 3: when we've been governing, this is how we've governed. I
• 25:47
  Speaker 3: don't know what she says.
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: Here's what I would say. I would say, well, first
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: of all, just as a broad thought, I think that
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: if J.D. Vance is allowed to go from calling Trump
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: heroin for the masses and saying that Trump's a sociopath
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: and America's Hitler to being his vice president, I think
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: people get to change their minds on some things.
• 26:04
  Speaker 3: That's one.
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: I think there's actually an easy way to deal with
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: a lot of this. Say, I've been vice president for
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: the last three years, and I've learned a lot doing that.
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: I have seen what it means to govern, not in California,
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: but for this entire country.
• 26:17
  Speaker 3: And you know what I did? I sat there with
• 26:18
  Speaker 3: Joe Biden as we passed a bipartisan infrastructure bill. I
• 26:22
  Speaker 3: sat there as we passed like, you know, the biggest
• 26:24
  Speaker 3: climate change legislation. But also, by the way, we're producing
• 26:27
  Speaker 3: more energy than we ever have before.
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: That's right. And on immigration, border crossings are now at
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: their lowest level than they were when Donald Trump was
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: last in office. And you know what? I believe that
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: we need secure borders. Like, I do think she's got
• 26:41
  Speaker 2: to do some of that. And I will, you know,
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: if she can do that, and this is where I
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: think the party's got to give her the latitude to
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: do that. I believe that the American people, they can
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: run that out a lot and it's going to hurt her.
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: And frankly, they've got to get up on TV as
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: fast as humanly possible with the new rebrand of her.
• 26:59
  Speaker 2: But the American people are like, I get learning and
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: especially learning and changing one's mind. They can do that.
• 27:06
  Speaker 3: Yeah, that's I kind of have that same suspicion. You
• 27:22
  Speaker 3: mentioned them getting up on the air. If they do
• 27:23
  Speaker 3: get up on the air, like they have a lot
• 27:25
  Speaker 3: of choices here. Obviously, they're going to have to push
• 27:27
  Speaker 3: back on some of these negative ads or at least
• 27:30
  Speaker 3: do so on their own terms. What do you think
• 27:32
  Speaker 3: voters would like to hear from her or know about
• 27:35
  Speaker 3: her in this period where she's trying to define herself?
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah. So I would say if I were running this campaign,
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: I would have her say a lot of nice things
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: about America. Donald Trump right now says just garbage about
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: America all the time. It's a dark place. It's a
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: bad place. And I think that people right now want
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: a hopeful message. I think you could do a little
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: bit of Obama here, but like very future oriented. But
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: America is a great place because people are going to
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: try to paint her. I should have said this during
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: the sort of what do you hear about race and gender?
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: I'm not necessarily hearing this in the focus groups, but
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: I know Republicans are going to do this DEI president
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: stuff is real. It's going to work with a certain
• 28:15
  Speaker 2: kind of person more on the grounds of like it's
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: going to tag into the she didn't earn it.
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: She just got this handed to her from Joe Biden.
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: So I think that she has to show people a
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: sense of like, I'm an American and I love this country.
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: Like this country gave me a lot. I am good
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: with this country, you know, because people they're going to
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: try to paint her. as something outside. This is why
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: the Obama birth certificate was a thing, right? They will
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: take anybody who is of color or any other difference,
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: and they will try to paint it as outside the
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: mainstream in some way or outside in a way that
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: people can't connect to. And so she needs to connect
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: to them on the things that they can feel happy
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: and good about, which is like, and Joe Biden was
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: good at this. Joe Biden, even in his speech saying
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: goodbye last night, I had my quibbles with it. But
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: the way he talks about America is the way I
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: feel about America. And one of the reasons that I struggled, actually,
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: one of the reasons I was a Republican is I
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: felt like Democrats were down on America and they would
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: say be negative about America. But now Trump's the one
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: talking negatively about America. And so, like, I think she
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: can own America if she tries like broad messaging.
• 29:22
  Speaker 3: I mean, you know, the 21 year old me listening
• 29:25
  Speaker 3: to the Barack Obama's 2004 convention speech, my first impression
• 29:29
  Speaker 3: of it was like, oh, a Democrat who's talking about
• 29:33
  Speaker 3: patriotism and loving America, but it's not just like the
• 29:36
  Speaker 3: airbrush patriotism of like, I like the flag too. It's like,
• 29:40
  Speaker 3: literally my name is Barack Hussein Obama. My father was
• 29:43
  Speaker 3: born in Kenya. But like somehow that's what this country
• 29:46
  Speaker 3: is all about, that someone like me can be included here.
• 29:48
  Speaker 3: You know, and I do think that that she's going
• 29:50
  Speaker 3: to have a moment. I think probably at the top
• 29:53
  Speaker 3: of that convention speech where she reintroduces herself to the
• 29:56
  Speaker 3: country where it's going to be like very important that
• 29:58
  Speaker 3: she does exactly what you're saying.
• 30:00
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: Well, that's my play. That's my pitch.
• 30:03
  Speaker 3: Yeah, no, I agree. So she has also had some
• 30:05
  Speaker 3: big decisions to make around how she talks about Trump
• 30:08
  Speaker 3: and how much she talks about Trump. So far, she
• 30:10
  Speaker 3: has a riff that compares her track record as a
• 30:12
  Speaker 3: prosecutor with his track record as a criminal. She talks
• 30:15
  Speaker 3: about how Trump would bring chaos, fear and hate. She
• 30:18
  Speaker 3: talks about Project 2025. Based on your conversations with voters,
• 30:21
  Speaker 3: what messages about Trump do you think at this point
• 30:24
  Speaker 3: have the potential to move voters? And how much should
• 30:27
  Speaker 3: she make the election a referendum on Trump versus like
• 30:33
  Speaker 3: she's got to do more work than Biden, obviously, to
• 30:35
  Speaker 3: introduce herself, her views, her plans?
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: So what I see her doing and what I hope
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: she will do is help to introduce herself and define
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: herself as she is defining Trump. Because a lot of
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: what people have wanted, I don't always love this in people,
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: but I do hear it from voters all the time,
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: is they want a fighter. They want someone who is
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: prosecuting a case against Trump. And they want somebody tough.
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: And one of the reasons people often are down on
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: women as candidates is that they don't think they're going
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: to be tough enough. They're worried about how they'll deal
• 31:06
  Speaker 2: with world leaders. And Donald Trump gets high marks for
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: being decisive, looking strong leadership. And that's because people are
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: confusing sort of the strong man authoritarian stuff with leadership.
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: But I think that if she goes at him in
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: a way that feels, and she's been doing this so far,
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: so like you can see it when she's doing it.
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: Right now, for example, I just saw a clip of
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: her saying, I want to debate. I'm ready to debate.
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: He's trying to backpedal. Let's debate. Let's do it anytime, anywhere. Yes,
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: like that, right? It is about sort of showing, I
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: am not scared of this man one bit, but there
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: is a grievance victim thing And like the out to
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: get Trump thing, there's a way where you can sort
• 31:46
  Speaker 2: of tip into what people tag as like kind of
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: Trump derangement syndrome.
• 31:51
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 31:51
  Speaker 2: And you get there by talking about Trump too much.
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: So this is this is the point you were just
• 31:56
  Speaker 2: making where she has got to find a way to
• 31:58
  Speaker 2: be prosecuting a case against Trump, but not always on.
• 32:03
  Speaker 2: just behavior, he's immoral or democracy. It also has to
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: be on, and I just saw something to this effect, right?
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: The not looking back, how he mishandled COVID and drove
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: the economy into the ditch, how he doesn't care about
• 32:16
  Speaker 2: middle-class people, like how he does tax cuts for the rich.
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: Like you can't just prosecute the case on sort of
• 32:21
  Speaker 2: democracy and he's a bad guy. You have to tie
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: it into policies that she can contrast with.
• 32:27
  Speaker 3: Yeah. She can't look like another one of those prosecutors
• 32:30
  Speaker 3: that's just out to get Donald Trump.
• 32:32
  Speaker 2: That's right.
• 32:32
  Speaker 3: For whatever reason, because that's like a resistancy thing that
• 32:36
  Speaker 3: she could tip into if she's not careful.
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: Alvin Bragg and Letitia James and, you know, like Jack Smith.
• 32:42
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's right.
• 32:44
  Speaker 3: And she made this pivot in the first speech where
• 32:46
  Speaker 3: she did the comparing the records and she goes, but
• 32:48
  Speaker 3: this is about so much more than me and Donald Trump.
• 32:51
  Speaker 3: She's got to keep making that pivot to people, I think.
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: That's right. And she's doing it well.
• 32:56
  Speaker 3: How are the voters you've talked to in the last
• 32:57
  Speaker 3: week feeling about Trump? Did they did you detect any
• 32:59
  Speaker 3: newfound admiration for him after the assassination attempt?
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: No. This this was so in the swing voters again.
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: So I'm talking about swing voters. It's actually been pretty
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: bad for him. A lot of conspiracies.
• 33:13
  Speaker 3: Oh, God.
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: They think so little of him that there's a lot
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: of like. I don't know about this. Seems like it
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: could be staged. There's been a fair amount of that
• 33:22
  Speaker 2: to the point where I'm like, all right, settle down.
• 33:24
  Speaker 3: Sweet voters too.
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: Yeah. These are not like the hardcore, you know, Dems
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: or anything, but because they think Trump sucks. And so
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: they think like he would, and he's a show person
• 33:33
  Speaker 2: and a liar and none of them, like a lot
• 33:36
  Speaker 2: of it, we asked and introduced the idea that you
• 33:38
  Speaker 2: were hearing from a lot of sort of cable news. And,
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: you know, do you think that this will change Trump?
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: And everyone was like, no, you know, like there was
• 33:45
  Speaker 2: no sense from the voters to, I was watching Fox
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: News last night during his speech. And so I was
• 33:50
  Speaker 2: watching Laura Ingraham. And, you know, I think for Fox
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: News watchers, they will continue to treat Trump as a martyr.
• 33:55
  Speaker 2: But that is not coming through with swing voters. When
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: swing voters talk about Trump, they dislike him intensely. Some
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: of them are willing to vote for him based on
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: things like the economy or the fact that he says
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: he's going to do something about the border. It is
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: not because they like him or they feel good about
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: him really in any way. And that's why Getting a
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: credible alternative is so important that they can just get
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: there on.
• 34:21
  Speaker 3: Project 2025, she's been talking about it a lot. Is
• 34:24
  Speaker 3: it coming up organically in the focus groups? And what
• 34:26
  Speaker 3: do people say about it?
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: Yeah. So it went from a thing that nobody ever
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: said to post-debate. when suddenly, for the first time, there
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: was like, even before, because people were mad about Joe
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: Biden seemingly being pushed out, there was a lot of like,
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: why aren't you talking about Project 2025? And a lot
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: of people were like, hmm, what's Project 2025? And it
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: went from never being mentioned to it comes up in
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: absolutely every group now. I would say their ability to
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: drill down into it and know what something is in
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: it is pretty One, the moderator said to one woman
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: who was like, there's really scary, this Project 2025. And
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: she was like, well, what specifically scares you about it?
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: And the, yeah, well, you know. And finally came up
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: with it wants to eliminate gay marriage, which I don't
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: know that eliminating gay marriage is in there. It does
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: do a lot of traditional family stuff. But anyway, the
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: point is, is it's become this, it's like woke. It's
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: like woke. It's just like a catch-all boogeyman for people.
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: And so I think that there is a tremendous amount
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: of opportunity, though, because the 900-page Project 2025 is batshit crazy.
• 35:31
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 35:35
  Speaker 2: And there is so much that you can pull out.
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: And I would not do not do what Democrats do
• 35:39
  Speaker 2: where they build an enormous PowerPoint presentation on it. Like
• 35:42
  Speaker 2: find the five things that women are really going to
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: care about, because there's a lot of stuff about like
• 35:47
  Speaker 2: eliminating child care, things like, you know, find a series
• 35:51
  Speaker 2: of things in there that women would care about that,
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: you know, different things and like drive those things home
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: for people. I do think you have to sort of
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: teach more about it. But I'll tell you. Democrats have
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: been given a gift on messaging where organically people have
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: decided that they care about this and they're telling other
• 36:07
  Speaker 2: people to care about this and that it's scary.
• 36:10
  Speaker 3: Well, that's good news. That's good news that it's breaking through.
• 36:13
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: Not Schedule F. Please don't talk about Schedule F, though,
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: because that piece of it is like everybody's like, well,
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: the president just gets to put in the people that
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: they want. Nobody thinks that's a bad part.
• 36:24
  Speaker 3: Well, and she's done a great job of already sort
• 36:27
  Speaker 3: of hitting the economic components of Project 2025. So she's
• 36:31
  Speaker 3: not making it about just Schedule F. Anything else that
• 36:34
  Speaker 3: we should know from these post handoff groups?
• 36:37
  Speaker 2: You know, I would say this is going back to
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: the very beginning of our conversation. But, you know, there
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: is some residual because I said the focus groups, the
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: real people are moving less quickly than the people online are.
• 36:50
  Speaker 5: Right.
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: And so I think there's still a week or so
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: before they maybe hit some of the same excitement level,
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: there is some frustration with the fact that Biden didn't
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: step down a lot earlier, that people feel like we're
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: in this position now because he shouldn't have run again
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: and someone should have taken the keys a lot sooner.
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: And I think that there's a little bit of bitterness.
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: This is especially within swing voters. I think there's a
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: little bit of bitterness that it sort of like has
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: played out the way that it has. And so I
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: think when Kamala Harris says, I'm going to earn this.
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: I mean, and sometimes I was like, I sort of
• 37:24
  Speaker 2: wish Cori Bush could have done a little mini primary
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: against her. John Lovett would understand this, but sometimes you
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: need a fire making challenge, right? To get to the end,
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: you got to have a fire making challenge to show
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: you've earned it.
• 37:35
  Speaker 3: I thought on the other side, she was going to
• 37:36
  Speaker 3: have it from like a Joe Manchin for a second.
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's right. That would have been bad. That would
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: have not been good. Manchin, stand down. And so I
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: do think that her maybe acknowledging at some point, sort
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: of how this happened and being a little bit like
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: talking about what she's learned and how passionate she's gotten
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: about wanting to help people. I think she's going to
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: have to do some of that to bring some of
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: these people around who feel like the DEI stuff is
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: about not earning things. And so you don't want that
• 38:06
  Speaker 2: to take hold too much. And so I think some
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: acknowledgement of that is good. But man, no, she should
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: go hard on immigration. Not hard, but I think that
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: she should sound a little hawkish. I think it's funny
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: because they're crabbing her when she was running to the
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: left of everybody in the 2020 primary. But if you
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: see stuff from actually before that, when she was a prosecutor,
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: suddenly you're like, oh, hey, look at that. I'm like, oh,
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: this warms my heart listening to this. She's telling kids
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: to get their butts back in school. You know, she's
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: being tough. I love that stuff.
• 38:37
  Speaker 3: I mean, it's also like there's an Obama era immigration
• 38:39
  Speaker 3: message that is both like, this is a wonderful country
• 38:43
  Speaker 3: because we welcome people from all over the world and
• 38:46
  Speaker 3: we should give a pathway to people who are here
• 38:47
  Speaker 3: working hard and want to become citizens. And also, this
• 38:51
  Speaker 3: is a nation of laws and we should make sure
• 38:52
  Speaker 3: that the border is secure and we should be tough
• 38:54
  Speaker 3: on that. Like there's just it's simple and it's there
• 38:56
  Speaker 3: and it's very popular and has been for some time.
• 38:59
  Speaker 2: And actually, sorry, let me let me throw one last
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: thing at you. So if there's one thing voters can
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: sniff out, it's like the phoniness. And I think where
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: she has struggled in the past and the reason they've
• 39:10
  Speaker 2: been able to brand her in certain ways is that
• 39:12
  Speaker 2: she has either when she was running for president in 2020,
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: I don't think that far left stuff was her.
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: And.
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: I don't think when you're the vice president and you
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: have to hold somebody else's reputation, somebody else's policies as
• 39:24
  Speaker 2: your own, that can be uncomfortable, right? It's hard not
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: to argue as yourself, but to argue as somebody else,
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: it makes you a to calculate a lot more, calibrate
• 39:31
  Speaker 2: a lot more. And my hope, and I think even
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: my expectation, is that her being allowed to be authentically
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: herself as she runs this campaign could be one of
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: the best things for her. Not just because I think
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: she'll be slightly more moderate on policy, but because I
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: think that they won't be able to, I think she
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: will look like a different person to them in her
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: authentic skin, in her authentic way of getting to define
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: these policies for herself. That's what I'm seeing from her
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: so far. And I'll tell you what, man, nothing with
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: these voters, all of them, beats authenticity.
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: Yep.
• 40:07
  Speaker 3: And I totally agree with this. I think she does
• 40:10
  Speaker 3: know who she is. And I even think that some
• 40:13
  Speaker 3: of now the clips that are you know, going viral
• 40:16
  Speaker 3: on the internet of her like laughing and having a
• 40:18
  Speaker 3: good time in the coconut tree stuff. That's different than
• 40:21
  Speaker 3: her in the 2020 primary who seemed someone like she
• 40:25
  Speaker 3: was always worried about what position she was taking. the
• 40:28
  Speaker 3: laugh and everything else, that's like her being like, you
• 40:31
  Speaker 3: know what? I'm a little goofy, but I know who
• 40:33
  Speaker 3: I am. I feel good about who I am. And
• 40:35
  Speaker 3: this is just who I'm going to be right now.
• 40:37
  Speaker 3: Like she, she sort of like sort of calmed down
• 40:39
  Speaker 3: the last year and just like sort of found herself
• 40:42
  Speaker 3: a little bit. And I think, so I think it
• 40:43
  Speaker 3: puts her in a good position to do exactly what
• 40:45
  Speaker 3: you just said. Sarah Longwell, thank you as always. I
• 40:48
  Speaker 3: know you're, you're busy conducting so many focus groups, so
• 40:51
  Speaker 3: we appreciate you coming back on the wilderness and we'll
• 40:54
  Speaker 3: talk to you again soon.
• 40:55
  Speaker 2: Thanks so much for having me.
• 41:00
  Speaker 3: That's our show. We'll be back in two weeks with
• 41:02
  Speaker 3: more on what voters are saying about Kamala Harris, Donald Trump,
• 41:05
  Speaker 3: and the 2024 election. The Wilderness is a production of
• 41:13
  Speaker 3: Crooked Media. It's written and hosted by me, Jon Favreau.
• 41:16
  Speaker 3: Our senior producer and editor is Andrea B. Scott. Austin
• 41:20
  Speaker 3: Fisher is our producer. And Farrah Safari is our associate producer.
• 41:24
  Speaker 3: Sound design by Vassilis Fotopoulos. Music by Marty Fowler. Charlotte
• 41:29
  Speaker 3: Landis and Jordan Cantor sound engineered the show. Thanks to
• 41:32
  Speaker 3: Katie Long, Reed Cherlin, Matt DeGratte, and Madeline Herringer for
• 41:36
  Speaker 3: production support. To our video team, Rachel Gajewski, Joseph Dutra,
• 41:40
  Speaker 3: Chris Russell, Molly Lobel, and David Tolles, who filmed and
• 41:43
  Speaker 3: edited the show. If the wilderness has inspired you to
• 41:46
  Speaker 3: get involved, head on over to votesaveamerica.com slash 2024 to
• 41:50
  Speaker 3: sign up and find a volunteer shift near you.