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Sui Generic? · Politix

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  Whether you think it's good politics or not,
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  the fact that we over-incarcerate people is true.
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  The fact that there are disparities in the way the criminal
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  justice system treats
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  SPEAKER_00: Black people and white people is true.
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  SPEAKER_00: And it is worth a liberal party,
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  SPEAKER_00: small L,
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  SPEAKER_00: they should be trying to make those problems less severe.
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  SPEAKER_01: The way I see this,
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  SPEAKER_01: because I always start,
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  SPEAKER_01: when I start on my bullshit about this and I'm trying to talk to people,
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  SPEAKER_01: I start with the Sandy Hook thing.
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  Hey,
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  everyone,
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  you're listening to a free preview of the Politics Podcast.
• 0:36
  SPEAKER_00: This week,
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  SPEAKER_00: Donald Trump hasn't been this unpopular since he incited an insurrection,
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  but he's still at least a bit more popular than an entity
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  called the Democratic
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  SPEAKER_00: Party.
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  SPEAKER_00: So we'll start with the gut check about the election.
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  SPEAKER_00: What do polls say?
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  SPEAKER_00: What do our guts say?
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  SPEAKER_00: And then we'll talk about the state of Democratic Party policy.
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  SPEAKER_00: Has it really taken a sharp left turn,
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  or is the party just slowly boring hard boards to bring about a
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  more perfect union?
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  SPEAKER_00: If you want to listen to the whole conversation,
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_00: you can upgrade your subscription to paid at politics.fm.
• 1:15
  SPEAKER_00: Hello, and welcome to the Politics Podcast.
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  SPEAKER_00: I'm Brian Boyler.
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  SPEAKER_01: I'm Matthew Glacius.
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  SPEAKER_00: So the election's over.
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  SPEAKER_00: Democrats are just going to win.
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  SPEAKER_00: We can just stop doing politics until November.
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  SPEAKER_00: It's done.
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  SPEAKER_01: The Ayatollah is wanted for us.
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  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
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  SPEAKER_01: No, what am I going to say?
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  You know,
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  I feel like last week we really got up in our bullshit in an
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  epic way.
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  SPEAKER_01: Some people loved it.
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  Others told me,
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  Matt,
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  I've heard enough of this bullshit over and over again.
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  SPEAKER_01: Can we do something else?
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  SPEAKER_00: Wait,
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  SPEAKER_00: be a little more specific about the specific bullshit,
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  SPEAKER_00: because we have all kinds of bullshit.
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  Well,
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  you know,
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  it's like I'm dooming always,
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  and I think Democrats are too left-wing.
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  SPEAKER_01: And Brian, I don't know exactly how to characterize what you think.
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  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
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  SPEAKER_01: Both more mad, but also less doomy.
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  SPEAKER_01: So I think I wanted to start by like stepping back,
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  trying to look at some objective facts as much as we can
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  ascertain them about the
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  SPEAKER_01: current state of politics,
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  SPEAKER_01: which creates a benchmark that then Brian and I can understand.
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  SPEAKER_01: give our subjective takes against,
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  SPEAKER_01: but so that we're not just talking about,
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  SPEAKER_01: like,
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  SPEAKER_01: feelings,
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  SPEAKER_01: but trying to,
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  SPEAKER_01: you know,
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  actually say what we're disagreeing about in terms of the
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  current situation,
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  SPEAKER_01: or maybe we're agreeing.
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  SPEAKER_01: And then in the back half,
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  SPEAKER_01: like,
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  we want to try to talk about the policy trajectory of the
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  Democratic Party since,
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  SPEAKER_01: you know,
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  SPEAKER_01: 2012,
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  SPEAKER_01: 2016.
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  SPEAKER_01: Again, try to have a little bit of a more...
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  systematic review of some of these issues that we are
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  constantly disagreeing about.
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  SPEAKER_01: So I think this starts with Trump, right?
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  SPEAKER_01: Trump's polling had been a week before the war with Iran broke out.
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  And then the war came,
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  there was no rallying around the flag bump,
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  and he has really suffered.
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  SPEAKER_01: This is not a lol, nothing matters kind of thing.
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  As the war has dragged on for multiple weeks,
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  gasoline prices have gone up.
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  SPEAKER_01: His approval rating has tumbled.
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  SPEAKER_01: You can see in the polling averages that he is now less popular than
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  SPEAKER_01: than he was eight years ago.
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  And that's from starting his second term at a higher point than
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  he started his first term.
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  SPEAKER_01: So, you know, there's been more like reaction to events in 2026.
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  I don't think either of us believe that what this shows is that
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  Democratic Party
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  SPEAKER_01: counter messaging against Trump has been like monumentally successful.
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  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
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  Or even just any – like there hasn't been a whole lot of trying
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  of stuff Trump has
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  SPEAKER_00: done himself in.
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  SPEAKER_00: But it's not like,
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  SPEAKER_00: wow,
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  like Donald Trump had a really good plan and those clever
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  Democrats got inside his
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  SPEAKER_00: OODA loop and screwed up his plans and made him unpopular,
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  SPEAKER_00: right?
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  SPEAKER_00: Like he's the author of his own –
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  Yes,
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  but I mean,
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  this is just to say,
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  right,
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  like,
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  well,
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  we are not disagreeing.
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  SPEAKER_01: Like,
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  SPEAKER_01: on the one hand,
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  SPEAKER_01: Trump is not running circles around the opposition,
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  SPEAKER_01: leaping from success to success,
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  SPEAKER_01: vanquishing his hapless opponents.
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  SPEAKER_01: He's quite unpopular.
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  SPEAKER_01: He's, in fact, more unpopular than he was eight years ago.
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  SPEAKER_01: And you and I both think that is primarily self-inflicted rather than a
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  SPEAKER_01: counter-messaging success story.
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  SPEAKER_01: So what else do we see in contemporary polling?
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  SPEAKER_01: Generic ballot is,
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  SPEAKER_01: I think,
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  SPEAKER_01: 5.5,
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  SPEAKER_01: D plus 5.5 right now,
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  SPEAKER_01: which is good,
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  but not as good as the generic ballot polling for Democrats was
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  eight years ago.
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  SPEAKER_01: It's not.
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  SPEAKER_01: dramatically worse,
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  but it's about two and a half points worse than the 2018
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  generic ballot polling
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  SPEAKER_01: was,
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  SPEAKER_01: even though Trump is less popular.
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  SPEAKER_01: So that is interesting.
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  SPEAKER_01: It reflects, I would say, my interpretation is that, you
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  Hillary Clinton was not super well-liked,
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  although she did win the popular vote.
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  SPEAKER_01: But the general image of the Democratic Party was okay.
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  SPEAKER_01: That Barack Obama remained quite popular,
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  and he was not like a—he was a very recent past figure at that
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  point in time.
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  And there was a lot of,
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  you know,
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  residual strength to the Democratic Party—
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  SPEAKER_01: so that when Trump stumbled,
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  SPEAKER_01: as he did in his first couple years in office,
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  SPEAKER_01: the benefits flowed very easily to Democrats.
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  SPEAKER_01: Whereas today, that is not the case.
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  SPEAKER_01: Democrats, you know, Joe Biden was very unpopular in 2024.
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  SPEAKER_01: That unpopularity extended to Kamala Harris.
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  SPEAKER_01: It extended quite a bit to
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  SPEAKER_01: down-ballot Democrats in that election,
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  SPEAKER_01: and,
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  SPEAKER_01: you know,
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  SPEAKER_01: they still have some kind of stink on them,
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  SPEAKER_01: the nature of which,
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  SPEAKER_01: you know,
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  SPEAKER_01: people could disagree about.
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  SPEAKER_01: But again,
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  this is why I would not say Democrats have had incredible
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  messaging successes
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  SPEAKER_01: against Trump,
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  SPEAKER_01: that they have not...
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  SPEAKER_01: you know,
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  SPEAKER_01: they have not like rebranded themselves as like,
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  SPEAKER_01: these are the amazing new Democrats,
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  SPEAKER_01: right?
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  SPEAKER_01: Like you're really gonna love these guys.
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  I mean,
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  and like to just,
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  you know,
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  it's hard for an out party to do that.
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  But like in 2010,
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  2009 and 2010,
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  Republicans were much more defeated than Democrats are now.
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  And they got rid of everybody and they started this thing
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  called the Young Guns,
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  right?
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  And they draped themselves in the Tea Party and they were
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  basically like,
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  Bush,
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  SPEAKER_00: We who like we have a we have a new thing that we're offering you.
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  SPEAKER_00: We see we see like they tried.
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  SPEAKER_00: They really tried.
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  SPEAKER_00: And like,
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  I don't know how much the young guns messaging per se helped
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  them win the 2010
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  SPEAKER_00: midterms in a landslide.
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  But they were trying to make people understand their party
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  differently than they
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  SPEAKER_00: had in the very recent past.
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  SPEAKER_01: So I think this is like another important point of agreement.
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  SPEAKER_01: And you also saw this in 2006,
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  SPEAKER_01: right,
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  SPEAKER_01: where,
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  SPEAKER_01: again,
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  SPEAKER_01: like,
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  SPEAKER_01: I think reasonable people can disagree as to,
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  SPEAKER_01: like,
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  SPEAKER_01: how many voters heard of,
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  SPEAKER_01: like,
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  SPEAKER_01: the 6 for 06 or,
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  SPEAKER_01: like,
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  SPEAKER_01: cared about,
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  SPEAKER_01: like,
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  SPEAKER_01: Keith Shuler and these other handful of recruits.
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  SPEAKER_01: But it was palpable.
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  SPEAKER_01: Like,
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  SPEAKER_01: if you were covering politics at that time,
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  SPEAKER_01: the Democrats were asserting that,
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  SPEAKER_01: like,
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  SPEAKER_01: something new was happening.
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  SPEAKER_01: Right.
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  SPEAKER_01: Like not everybody believed that.
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  SPEAKER_01: Not everybody necessarily heard that.
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  SPEAKER_01: But like their claim,
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  SPEAKER_01: Democrats in 2006,
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  SPEAKER_01: Republicans in 2010,
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  SPEAKER_01: was like,
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  SPEAKER_01: this is this is different now.
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  SPEAKER_01: Right.
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  SPEAKER_01: And that is like not really true.
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  SPEAKER_01: It's not just like the literal continuity of Chuck Schumer.
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  SPEAKER_01: Hakeem Jeffries is a little bit more like literally new than Schumer was.
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  SPEAKER_01: But there's no there's no new look right.
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  SPEAKER_01: class who's particularly here.
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  And,
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  you know,
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  we'll talk about that,
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  I think,
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  when we get into the Senate races.
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  SPEAKER_01: But the fact that, like, you know,
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  SPEAKER_00: Can I pre-bias our discussion by pointing out that after 2004,
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  you had Howard Dean talking about the ascendancy of the
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  Democratic wing of the
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  SPEAKER_00: Democratic Party.
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  SPEAKER_00: He loses, but then Democrats lose the election.
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  SPEAKER_00: Democrats make him a prominent figure in party leadership.
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  SPEAKER_00: Nancy Pelosi takes over from the old white dudes.
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  SPEAKER_00: She's the most progressive leader in the Congress period.
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  SPEAKER_00: And that is what prefigures the renaissance of the Democrats is this new-
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  SPEAKER_01: It's part of it, which I think is interesting.
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  But I mean,
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  again,
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  just like the common point is that there was newness,
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  right?
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  SPEAKER_01: There was like a deliberate effort at newness.
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  SPEAKER_01: That has not happened.
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  The Democratic establishment has not passed the baton to the
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  leftists who ever
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  SPEAKER_01: since 2016 have been saying,
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  SPEAKER_01: we should destroy you all and take over.
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  SPEAKER_01: There also has not been an efflorescence of moderation, right?
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  It is many of the same people,
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  when not exactly the same people,
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  signals of continuity.
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  SPEAKER_01: And that extends to the fact that,
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  SPEAKER_01: like,
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  I would say the best recruits who Democrats have in the 2026
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  Senate races are
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  SPEAKER_01: Sherrod Brown and Mary Peltola,
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  SPEAKER_01: who,
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  SPEAKER_01: like,
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  SPEAKER_01: are in fact good recruits,
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  SPEAKER_01: right?
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  SPEAKER_01: but are also retreads, right?
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  SPEAKER_01: It's not like LeBron James is running for Senate in Ohio.
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  SPEAKER_01: And like, that's how we're going to beat John Husted, right?
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  SPEAKER_01: I don't know what the equivalent in Alaska would be.
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  SPEAKER_01: I'll just name more NBA players.
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  SPEAKER_01: Carlos Boozers from Alaska.
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  SPEAKER_01: You know, these are very...
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  The good plays are very,
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  like,
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  paint by numbers,
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  you know,
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  in that sense.
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  SPEAKER_01: And that's the vibe that is existing here.
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  SPEAKER_01: It's like, we were right about Trump.
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  SPEAKER_01: You, the voters, can see now that we were right about Trump.
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  SPEAKER_01: So you should turn the keys back over to,
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  SPEAKER_01: like,
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  roughly the same group of people who warned you in 2024 that
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  you shouldn't vote for
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  SPEAKER_01: this claim.
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  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
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  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
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  SPEAKER_00: And look,
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  my considered view is that the approach Democrats are taking is
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  – let's bracket for
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  a second the question of what Trump might try to do to queer
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  the results in some
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  SPEAKER_00: way or steal the election or whatever.
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  Because it's important and it could – there are ways in which
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  he could really upset
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  SPEAKER_00: things by using illegitimate tactics.
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  SPEAKER_00: And I think the way Democrats –
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  choose to respond to that is like an important variable in this
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  question of how
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  SPEAKER_00: they can present themselves to the public anew.
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  But if you just set that aside and just assume Trump is not
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  that kind of person and
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  the election is just going to be another sort of binary contest
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  between the two
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  SPEAKER_00: parties,
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  SPEAKER_00: I think Democrats can probably just stick with this approach,
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  SPEAKER_00: the one that you just described,
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  SPEAKER_00: that we don't really disagree with each other about.
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  SPEAKER_00: And it would lead to victories on the scale of,
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  SPEAKER_00: if not greater than the their victories in 2018,
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  SPEAKER_00: even though in the generic ballot,
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  SPEAKER_00: they are not ahead as much as they were at this point eight years ago.
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  SPEAKER_00: I can like get into.
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  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
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  SPEAKER_00: Why do you think that?
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  SPEAKER_00: So it has to be one thing or another, I think.
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  SPEAKER_00: Right.
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  Because there you have the generic ballot that is kind of stuck
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  at five point five
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  SPEAKER_00: or six percent,
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  SPEAKER_00: which is definitely enough to win them a House majority.
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  SPEAKER_00: And it's like the Senate is kind of on the bubble.
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  SPEAKER_00: Probably they lose.
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  SPEAKER_00: Right.
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  SPEAKER_00: And so it's not like really where we would like to see them.
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  SPEAKER_00: At the same time,
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  SPEAKER_00: every time there's a special election,
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  SPEAKER_00: or I think more importantly,
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  SPEAKER_00: the off-year elections in New Jersey and Virginia,
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  SPEAKER_00: Democrats are like romping.
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  They are winning by much greater margins than the generic
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  ballot election.
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  And so you have to kind of interpret the mismatch and try to
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  make it fit facts.
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  SPEAKER_00: And I mean,
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  I think that this is where the difference between 2016 and 2024
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  becomes important
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  SPEAKER_00: is that is that back in after the 2016 election,
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  people who voted for Democrats or who were kind of like swing
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  voters between the
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  SPEAKER_00: party.
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  SPEAKER_00: Understood correctly,
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  SPEAKER_00: I think,
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  that that election came out as a fluke and didn't represent an
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  indictment of the
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  SPEAKER_00: Democrats,
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  SPEAKER_00: who were still the party of Obama,
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  SPEAKER_00: as you mentioned,
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  SPEAKER_00: right?
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  SPEAKER_00: But Trump was kind of – he cheated in the election essentially,
• 13:02
  SPEAKER_00: and he only won because of the electoral college.
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  And it was just like Democrats got a raw deal rather than that
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  they screwed up in some way.
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  SPEAKER_00: But then, you know, Trump has this very bad presidency.
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  SPEAKER_00: It ends in disaster.
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  And Democrats have this one shot to be like,
• 13:19
  all right,
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  we're putting all that behind us.
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  SPEAKER_00: We're going to make it so that it can't happen again, in essence.
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  And like you for like sticking with us through those four years
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  and putting us back
• 13:29
  SPEAKER_00: in power,
• 13:30
  SPEAKER_00: like you'll see that your efforts weren't for nothing,
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  SPEAKER_00: only for like
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  SPEAKER_00: You know,
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  Joe Biden to be unable to really do politics in any in any
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  energetic kind of
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  SPEAKER_00: energetic way.
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  SPEAKER_00: And then Democrats lose the election, actually.
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  And so like the people who decided to maintain their faith in
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  Democrats in 2017 have lost faith.
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  SPEAKER_00: And Democrats,
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  and I think they want to see some recognition that what that
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  their plan failed and
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  SPEAKER_00: they're not seeing that.
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  And so what you have is a generic ballot that I believe is
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  laden by the party's
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  SPEAKER_00: unpopularity,
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  SPEAKER_00: which at 30 percent nationally means that.
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  SPEAKER_00: Tens of millions of Democratic voters,
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  SPEAKER_00: people who have always voted Democrat,
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  SPEAKER_00: will vote Democrat again,
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  SPEAKER_00: are telling pollsters,
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  SPEAKER_00: I don't like the Democratic Party.
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  SPEAKER_00: I don't respect the Democratic Party.
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  SPEAKER_00: And some of them,
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  SPEAKER_00: when the pollster says,
• 14:29
  SPEAKER_00: who do you believe deserves to be in charge of the Congress,
• 14:32
  SPEAKER_00: Democrats or Republicans,
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  are reluctant to say Democrats because they don't really feel
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  like Democrats have
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  SPEAKER_00: earned it,
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  SPEAKER_00: even though whatever –
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  SPEAKER_00: Candidates happen to be on their ballot at their polling places.
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  SPEAKER_00: They're going to vote for the Democratic candidates.
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  SPEAKER_00: And that's why you see the special elections going so well.
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  SPEAKER_00: And so I am,
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  SPEAKER_00: in my effort to analyze the situation cleanly,
• 14:54
  putting way more stock in these special election results and in
• 14:57
  the off-year
• 14:57
  election results in a way that's suggested if Trump has no
• 15:02
  success screwing with
• 15:03
  SPEAKER_00: the election—
• 15:05
  Democrats are going to win the quote unquote generic ballot at
• 15:08
  the polls by more
• 15:09
  SPEAKER_00: than they did in 2018,
• 15:12
  which should situate them well to win both the House and I
• 15:16
  think the Senate.
• 15:17
  SPEAKER_01: OK, OK, so this is good.
• 15:18
  SPEAKER_01: So this is good.
• 15:19
  SPEAKER_01: This is a solid, like a concrete forecast, right?
• 15:22
  SPEAKER_01: Brian thinks Democrats will overperform the generic ballot.
• 15:27
  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
• 15:27
  like I just want I just like because I don't want to like seem
• 15:31
  naive about how
• 15:31
  SPEAKER_00: special elections select a certain kind of voter because like.
• 15:36
  SPEAKER_00: The higher you go in turnout for these elections since 2024,
• 15:42
  SPEAKER_00: you see that Democrats do better the more obscure the election,
• 15:44
  SPEAKER_00: but they won the Virginia governorship by 15 points.
• 15:50
  SPEAKER_00: If they only overperform by like half that amount,
• 15:53
  they're still two points ahead of where they are in Nate
• 15:55
  Silver's congressional
• 15:56
  SPEAKER_00: ballot,
• 15:56
  SPEAKER_00: right?
• 15:56
  SPEAKER_00: Like they could have slippage from there and still romp.
• 16:01
  SPEAKER_00: And I think that's what they're poised for.
• 16:03
  SPEAKER_01: So I want to start talking about specifics of the Senate map.
• 16:07
  So I feel like where I think the Boitler model applies best in
• 16:14
  this Senate map is me,
• 16:17
  right?
• 16:18
  SPEAKER_01: Because Susan Collins,
• 16:19
  SPEAKER_01: a very formidable opponent,
• 16:21
  SPEAKER_01: she in 2020,
• 16:22
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
• 16:23
  SPEAKER_01: she won in 2014,
• 16:24
  SPEAKER_01: but that was a great cycle for Republicans.
• 16:26
  But she not only has won repeatedly in blue states,
• 16:29
  she is in the 2008-2020 cycle,
• 16:31
  right?
• 16:33
  SPEAKER_01: which was like really rough for Republicans.
• 16:36
  SPEAKER_01: And she won both of those times.
• 16:38
  SPEAKER_01: She is a tough cookie to crack.
• 16:43
  SPEAKER_01: I think that Graham Plattner has various weaknesses as a candidate,
• 16:48
  SPEAKER_01: but he brings to the table precisely what Brian was talking about.
• 16:55
  which is a sense of answering Democrats' own frustrations with
• 16:59
  the Democratic Party,
• 17:01
  right?
• 17:01
  SPEAKER_01: And a belief that we need somebody who is new,
• 17:04
  SPEAKER_01: we need somebody who is in a not totally specific sense tougher,
• 17:09
  SPEAKER_01: right?
• 17:09
  SPEAKER_01: Like this kind of thing.
• 17:10
  SPEAKER_01: And I think that you see in the polling that the prospect of Plattner has
• 17:16
  SPEAKER_01: remoralized like Maine Democrats and his polling is very good.
• 17:24
  SPEAKER_01: Again, it's like,
• 17:25
  SPEAKER_01: For a Democrat to win statewide in Maine is not,
• 17:27
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 17:28
  SPEAKER_01: the most monumental achievement of all time.
• 17:31
  SPEAKER_01: But beating Susan Collins has proven very difficult.
• 17:34
  SPEAKER_01: What you need to do to beat Susan Collins is,
• 17:36
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 17:36
  SPEAKER_01: get people who don't like Trump to vote for the Democratic nominee.
• 17:41
  SPEAKER_01: Um...
• 17:42
  SPEAKER_01: we've seen significant polling errors in Maine in the past.
• 17:45
  So I don't want to be too,
• 17:47
  too,
• 17:47
  too confident,
• 17:48
  but the polls indicate that Platner is doing it.
• 17:52
  SPEAKER_01: I think that the Janet Mills retread strategy there,
• 17:57
  SPEAKER_01: not,
• 17:57
  SPEAKER_01: she's not a retread exactly,
• 17:58
  SPEAKER_01: but like she's,
• 18:00
  SPEAKER_01: You know,
• 18:01
  SPEAKER_01: I think that if Schumer had gotten Secretary of State Shanna Bellows,
• 18:06
  SPEAKER_01: or if she'd gotten Hannah Pingree,
• 18:09
  SPEAKER_01: or some other younger,
• 18:11
  SPEAKER_01: more establishment-y figure in there,
• 18:13
  SPEAKER_01: he could have had that person.
• 18:15
  SPEAKER_01: But, like, the thing that...
• 18:19
  SPEAKER_01: demoralized,
• 18:20
  SPEAKER_01: wavering Democrats really don't want to do is,
• 18:24
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 18:24
  put up another elderly person who can't campaign vigorously and
• 18:29
  doesn't seem in
• 18:29
  SPEAKER_01: touch with modern communication styles.
• 18:32
  SPEAKER_01: Plattner and his video team are just,
• 18:34
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 18:35
  SPEAKER_01: much more in the vibe of,
• 18:37
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 18:37
  SPEAKER_01: where things are at right now.
• 18:39
  SPEAKER_01: And it just seems like, again, nothing is certain, but, like, you see –
• 18:44
  SPEAKER_01: not just in the polling,
• 18:45
  SPEAKER_01: but like,
• 18:46
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 18:47
  SPEAKER_01: the gamblers are aware of polling error in the past.
• 18:50
  Plattener's at 75% in,
• 18:52
  sorry,
• 18:53
  Democrats are at 75% in Maine in polymarket.
• 18:56
  SPEAKER_01: And I think that's like, you know, I don't know.
• 19:00
  SPEAKER_01: Should it be 70?
• 19:01
  SPEAKER_01: Should it be 80?
• 19:02
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not sure.
• 19:03
  SPEAKER_01: But like,
• 19:04
  that seems correct to me that like freshness and newness and a
• 19:08
  little like shaking
• 19:10
  SPEAKER_01: of the style is what you need there.
• 19:13
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 19:14
  SPEAKER_01: but then I really don't know about the rest of this map.
• 19:16
  SPEAKER_01: Like I'm looking at the polling,
• 19:20
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 19:20
  SPEAKER_01: on Ohio,
• 19:22
  SPEAKER_01: on Texas,
• 19:23
  SPEAKER_01: on Iowa,
• 19:25
  SPEAKER_01: and it's,
• 19:26
  SPEAKER_01: it's not so good.
• 19:28
  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
• 19:29
  SPEAKER_00: it's closer because those are further reach States,
• 19:34
  SPEAKER_00: but like,
• 19:35
  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
• 19:35
  SPEAKER_00: I,
• 19:36
  SPEAKER_00: do you have actually like a,
• 19:37
  SPEAKER_00: an aggregated,
• 19:40
  SPEAKER_00: like a poll average from those States?
• 19:41
  SPEAKER_00: Cause I could find like,
• 19:43
  SPEAKER_00: you know, individual polls, and, like, they're not bad, I don't think.
• 19:47
  SPEAKER_00: So,
• 19:47
  SPEAKER_00: for starters,
• 19:48
  SPEAKER_01: there's,
• 19:48
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 19:49
  SPEAKER_01: there's just,
• 19:49
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 19:49
  SPEAKER_01: not as much polling,
• 19:51
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 19:51
  SPEAKER_01: at all as one would want.
• 19:52
  SPEAKER_01: But so,
• 19:52
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 19:52
  SPEAKER_01: RealClearPolitics has,
• 19:54
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 19:55
  SPEAKER_01: an Ohio average that has a few polls in it,
• 19:58
  SPEAKER_01: and it's hosted 1.4.
• 20:01
  But you got to correct for RealClearPolitics,
• 20:03
  though,
• 20:04
  so that's probably closer to even.
• 20:06
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 20:07
  SPEAKER_01: Well, I mean, maybe, I don't know.
• 20:09
  You know,
• 20:10
  Brown has only been up in one poll,
• 20:13
  you know,
• 20:13
  from last October.
• 20:15
  Alaska,
• 20:16
  there was a lot of excitement about the most recent poll that
• 20:19
  she'll pull up by one.
• 20:21
  Isn't there another one that,
• 20:24
  another one that had her up five,
• 20:25
  I think too.
• 20:26
  SPEAKER_01: Oh yeah.
• 20:26
  SPEAKER_01: The newest one.
• 20:27
  SPEAKER_01: Then before that Sullivan was up.
• 20:29
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, you know, who knows?
• 20:31
  SPEAKER_01: Texas, like, you know,
• 20:35
  SPEAKER_01: The polling, I think—wait, let me look.
• 20:39
  SPEAKER_01: Here, tell us something about Ohio while I look up Senate.
• 20:42
  I mean,
• 20:43
  I don't have much more to say about Ohio than you've already
• 20:46
  covered,
• 20:46
  right?
• 20:46
  SPEAKER_00: Like,
• 20:48
  it's definitely the kind of state that you need things to come
• 20:52
  together in just the
• 20:54
  SPEAKER_00: right way for,
• 20:54
  SPEAKER_00: for Democrats to win it.
• 20:59
  SPEAKER_00: And,
• 20:59
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 20:59
  SPEAKER_00: they don't have a deep bench,
• 21:01
  SPEAKER_00: so I think it makes sense that they went back to Sherrod Brown,
• 21:03
  SPEAKER_00: who I do think—
• 21:05
  is a talented politician with a brand that is sort of distinct
• 21:08
  from the Democratic
• 21:08
  SPEAKER_00: Party and Donald Trump is becoming less popular.
• 21:11
  SPEAKER_00: So that's, you know, that's two of the pieces.
• 21:14
  And then like if you want to like like what I was saying before
• 21:17
  is that I think if
• 21:18
  SPEAKER_00: Democrats just continue with the approach that they've chosen,
• 21:22
  SPEAKER_00: they are poised to do very well.
• 21:25
  That is not to say that I think that they have made the right
• 21:28
  choice by deciding
• 21:30
  SPEAKER_00: that they don't need to make
• 21:35
  like overt gestures to the electorate that they are chastened
• 21:40
  and they're sort of
• 21:42
  SPEAKER_00: rediscovering themselves or redefining themselves.
• 21:45
  SPEAKER_00: And that Sherrod Brown would benefit from a...
• 21:52
  like a congressional caucus or congressional caucuses that were
• 21:57
  doing more to
• 21:57
  SPEAKER_00: exploit Trump's vulnerabilities,
• 22:00
  SPEAKER_00: his ethics scandals,
• 22:02
  SPEAKER_00: things like that,
• 22:03
  SPEAKER_00: with the idea being that,
• 22:04
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 22:05
  SPEAKER_00: whether those touch John Husted or not,
• 22:07
  SPEAKER_00: they make people like reluctant to cast a vote for Republicans.
• 22:13
  I think that like there are ways Democrats can change their
• 22:17
  comportment that would
• 22:18
  tend to mechanically improve the fortunes of candidates like
• 22:22
  Sherrod Brown,
• 22:23
  SPEAKER_00: like Mary Peltola,
• 22:24
  SPEAKER_00: like James Tallarico.
• 22:26
  SPEAKER_01: Well, so, okay.
• 22:27
  SPEAKER_01: And so, so Texas, you know, Texas is interesting.
• 22:30
  So the Tallarico campaign and Senate majority PAC have both put
• 22:36
  out polls that show him up and
• 22:41
  Interestingly,
• 22:42
  they have polled both Tallarico against Paxton and Tallarico
• 22:46
  against Cornyn.
• 22:48
  And those polls not only show Tallarico up...
• 22:54
  They show Tallarico beating both opponents.
• 22:57
  Some people believe that the Democrats are trying to screw with
• 23:01
  Republicans here
• 23:03
  SPEAKER_01: and get them to nominate Paxton.
• 23:06
  SPEAKER_01: Mm-hmm.
• 23:07
  SPEAKER_01: You know, because, like, I think, like, everybody...
• 23:11
  SPEAKER_01: Everybody believes that Cornyn is a tougher opponent,
• 23:15
  SPEAKER_01: but this polling put out by Democrats suggests that Cornyn is not,
• 23:20
  SPEAKER_01: in fact,
• 23:21
  SPEAKER_01: the stronger opponent.
• 23:23
  SPEAKER_01: So, you know, we'll see what happens.
• 23:25
  SPEAKER_00: I bet I wouldn't.
• 23:26
  SPEAKER_00: Obviously, Democrats do this all the time.
• 23:28
  SPEAKER_00: They try to mind trick Republicans into nominating weak candidates,
• 23:31
  SPEAKER_00: and sometimes it's worked,
• 23:32
  SPEAKER_00: and sometimes we've ended up with President Donald Trump.
• 23:34
  SPEAKER_00: But, like, you know, trying to inhabit the Texas—
• 23:40
  SPEAKER_00: the Texan mindset.
• 23:42
  SPEAKER_00: You know,
• 23:42
  SPEAKER_00: like,
• 23:43
  SPEAKER_00: Ken Paxton's liabilities are right there on the surface,
• 23:47
  SPEAKER_00: and they are a poor match for a golden boy like Tallarico.
• 23:53
  SPEAKER_00: But like Cornyn is pretty elderly at this point.
• 23:57
  SPEAKER_00: And he's like crosswise with Trump on a lot of things.
• 24:01
  SPEAKER_00: Trump was supposed to like endorse him and put this runoff,
• 24:06
  SPEAKER_00: like scuttle it so that it wouldn't have to happen.
• 24:08
  And then Trump rug pulled John Cornyn because I think he likes
• 24:12
  Paxton better
• 24:13
  SPEAKER_00: because Paxton is a more ruthless person.
• 24:16
  SPEAKER_00: And so like it would not surprise me if those –
• 24:20
  SPEAKER_00: Polls were both kind of designed to get Republicans to nominate,
• 24:25
  SPEAKER_00: but also true,
• 24:25
  SPEAKER_00: but also accurate.
• 24:27
  SPEAKER_01: So,
• 24:27
  SPEAKER_01: okay,
• 24:27
  so then I just want to say the nonpartisan polling from Texas
• 24:32
  all shows both Paxton
• 24:34
  SPEAKER_01: and Cornyn
• 24:37
  And,
• 24:38
  you know,
• 24:39
  the betting markets in this case have Republicans at 56
• 24:43
  percent.
• 24:44
  SPEAKER_01: Betting markets in Ohio have Democrats have Democrats at 56 percent.
• 24:49
  SPEAKER_01: So even though the polling,
• 24:50
  SPEAKER_01: which is scant in Ohio,
• 24:52
  SPEAKER_01: the polling favors Husted,
• 24:54
  SPEAKER_01: but the gamblers don't.
• 24:57
  But I noticed something when I looked at this that I think is
• 25:00
  important and that
• 25:01
  kind of makes this conversation tough to have once is that the
• 25:05
  is that the generic
• 25:06
  SPEAKER_00: ballot numbers have been like annoyingly steady.
• 25:10
  But the trends in the betting markets are super favorable to
• 25:12
  Democrats like yes.
• 25:14
  As of today,
• 25:15
  it looks even in Texas and Ohio or very close in Texas and
• 25:19
  Ohio.
• 25:20
  SPEAKER_00: But like a month ago, it looked much less even.
• 25:22
  SPEAKER_01: And if you extrapolate- I mean, this is why I'm bringing it up.
• 25:26
  I mean,
• 25:27
  I don't think either of us really know how useful betting
• 25:30
  market data is.
• 25:33
  SPEAKER_01: But what has happened is that there has been a strong-
• 25:38
  gambling move in Democrats' favor since the war broke out that
• 25:42
  is not backed up in
• 25:45
  generic ballot polling and not particularly backed up in
• 25:48
  individual race polling.
• 25:50
  SPEAKER_01: It's not contradicted by the individual race polling.
• 25:53
  SPEAKER_01: It's just like there's very little individual race polling,
• 25:56
  SPEAKER_01: but there's a decent amount of generic ballot polling,
• 25:59
  SPEAKER_01: which just like does not show this sharp move toward Democrats.
• 26:04
  SPEAKER_01: You have outlined a
• 26:06
  plausible sounding theory of like why you should front run the
• 26:11
  generic ballot.
• 26:12
  SPEAKER_01: And the gambling community,
• 26:14
  I don't think we can say for sure that they agree with your
• 26:18
  specific- They're
• 26:18
  SPEAKER_01: coming around.
• 26:20
  SPEAKER_01: But they seem to be.
• 26:21
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, they are, so similarly, so like Iowa-
• 26:27
  In Iowa,
• 26:28
  the primary polling shows that Zach Walls is very likely to
• 26:33
  beat Josh Turek.
• 26:36
  SPEAKER_01: I and all intelligent people believe that Turek is the stronger opponent.
• 26:40
  SPEAKER_01: But either way, the very limited general election polling
• 26:44
  SPEAKER_01: shows Republicans beating either of those guys.
• 26:48
  SPEAKER_01: Also in Iowa,
• 26:49
  SPEAKER_01: the strongest Democratic group clearly would have been Rob Sand,
• 26:53
  SPEAKER_01: who's running for governor instead.
• 26:55
  SPEAKER_01: This is like the opposite of the Alaska,
• 26:57
  SPEAKER_01: Ohio situation,
• 26:59
  SPEAKER_01: where like clearly like the good contender was like,
• 27:02
  SPEAKER_01: F this,
• 27:02
  SPEAKER_01: like I don't want to deal with national politics,
• 27:06
  SPEAKER_01: Chuck Schumer,
• 27:06
  SPEAKER_01: et cetera.
• 27:07
  SPEAKER_01: Sand looks like he may well win.
• 27:09
  SPEAKER_01: win, governor.
• 27:11
  SPEAKER_01: And so we may say this is the one that got away.
• 27:13
  SPEAKER_01: Last is North Carolina.
• 27:15
  SPEAKER_01: The gamblers have been super bullish on Roy Cooper from the get-go.
• 27:22
  SPEAKER_01: This seems like the race where, like,
• 27:25
  Everyone like Democrats have a super duper duper establishment
• 27:29
  pick in Roy Cooper.
• 27:32
  SPEAKER_00: But it's a North Carolina establishment pick,
• 27:34
  whereas Republicans went and nominated the former chair of the
• 27:37
  RNC who like.
• 27:38
  SPEAKER_01: Yes, yes, yes.
• 27:40
  SPEAKER_01: I just I just mean it's not being contested at all.
• 27:42
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 27:42
  SPEAKER_01: There's no the left didn't decide the way they did with Janet Mills,
• 27:48
  SPEAKER_01: that it's like,
• 27:49
  SPEAKER_01: no,
• 27:49
  SPEAKER_01: we're going to like put up some.
• 27:52
  SPEAKER_01: more feisty, progressive, whatever.
• 27:55
  SPEAKER_01: Cooper is uncontested for the primary.
• 27:57
  SPEAKER_00: And I think that this says something about your bet noirs on the left,
• 28:03
  which is that at some level they understand that what they want
• 28:07
  to see out of
• 28:07
  SPEAKER_00: Democrats won't necessarily fly in North Carolina,
• 28:10
  which is why I think if John Bel Edwards had gotten in the race
• 28:13
  in Louisiana,
• 28:14
  SPEAKER_00: there wouldn't have been this outcry about his stance on abortion.
• 28:17
  SPEAKER_00: They wouldn't have tried to field, you know, whoever.
• 28:20
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 28:22
  SPEAKER_00: Well, this is what I'm always saying.
• 28:24
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I agree.
• 28:29
  SPEAKER_01: Progressives are not trying to beat Republicans, really.
• 28:33
  SPEAKER_01: They're just trying to win primaries and save blue states.
• 28:37
  SPEAKER_01: And establishment Democrats,
• 28:39
  SPEAKER_01: I would say,
• 28:40
  have also given up on trying to beat Republicans and are
• 28:43
  basically just trying to
• 28:45
  SPEAKER_01: not lose primaries and save blue states.
• 28:48
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 28:49
  You know,
• 28:51
  North Carolina is a weird one because it's a Trump,
• 28:53
  Trump,
• 28:54
  Trump state.
• 28:54
  SPEAKER_01: It's like a solid red state.
• 28:56
  Even Biden didn't win it when he did quite well,
• 28:59
  but it was close all three times.
• 29:02
  So this is the state where,
• 29:04
  you know,
• 29:04
  like Trump won,
• 29:06
  but his approval has slipped a lot.
• 29:08
  SPEAKER_01: Democrats will probably benefit from differential turnout.
• 29:11
  SPEAKER_01: Democrats have a strong recruit.
• 29:13
  SPEAKER_01: It's like it's all coming together, right?
• 29:14
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 29:15
  SPEAKER_01: And the whole House map is like basically North Carolina, right?
• 29:21
  SPEAKER_01: There's not a ton of like R plus two House seats out there,
• 29:26
  SPEAKER_01: but it's a four seat House Republican majority,
• 29:30
  SPEAKER_01: something like that.
• 29:31
  SPEAKER_01: It's tiny.
• 29:32
  SPEAKER_01: And so there's like enough
• 29:33
  SPEAKER_01: North Carolina-esque districts where if you recruit a decent but,
• 29:39
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 29:39
  not particularly noteworthy Democrat and Trump's numbers are in
• 29:44
  the toilet and
• 29:46
  SPEAKER_01: Democrats benefit from midterm turnout,
• 29:47
  SPEAKER_01: you're anticipated to win.
• 29:49
  SPEAKER_01: The whole issue of the Senate is that, like, there's only North Carolina.
• 29:53
  SPEAKER_01: like all the other states that we've talked about,
• 29:56
  SPEAKER_01: Ohio,
• 29:56
  SPEAKER_01: Alaska,
• 29:57
  SPEAKER_01: Iowa,
• 29:57
  SPEAKER_01: Texas,
• 29:59
  SPEAKER_01: are significantly redder than North Carolina.
• 30:03
  It's interesting to me that,
• 30:06
  so the gamblers,
• 30:08
  just to review it all,
• 30:09
  right?
• 30:09
  Like the gamblers currently see Democrats as overwhelmingly
• 30:13
  likely to win Maine and
• 30:15
  SPEAKER_01: North Carolina and as moderately likely to win Alaska and Ohio.
• 30:24
  SPEAKER_01: That would be a majority.
• 30:26
  And Polymarket says,
• 30:29
  like,
• 30:29
  the greatest odds,
• 30:30
  50%,
• 30:31
  essentially,
• 30:32
  favor DemSweep.
• 30:33
  SPEAKER_00: It's the likeliest scenario,
• 30:36
  SPEAKER_00: which is good because a month ago,
• 30:37
  SPEAKER_00: I think it was the other way around,
• 30:38
  SPEAKER_00: that the likeliest...
• 30:41
  SPEAKER_00: not the other way around,
• 30:41
  SPEAKER_00: but the,
• 30:42
  SPEAKER_00: the,
• 30:42
  SPEAKER_00: the likeliest scenario was Dem House,
• 30:44
  SPEAKER_00: Republican Senate.
• 30:46
  SPEAKER_00: Um,
• 30:47
  SPEAKER_00: and so like the trend,
• 30:48
  SPEAKER_00: at least as far as the vibes are concerned is it betters are essentially.
• 30:52
  So,
• 30:53
  so,
• 30:53
  so,
• 30:54
  and,
• 30:54
  and you are basically in line with the gamblers is what you
• 30:58
  were saying before.
• 30:59
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 31:00
  If I,
• 31:00
  if I had to,
• 31:01
  uh,
• 31:03
  if I had to bet money,
• 31:06
  I would take,
• 31:08
  you know,
• 31:08
  the,
• 31:10
  SPEAKER_00: somewhat long odds, but like put real money on a Dem suite.
• 31:15
  SPEAKER_00: Like,
• 31:17
  SPEAKER_00: I think it's,
• 31:17
  SPEAKER_00: I agree that I think at this point,
• 31:19
  SPEAKER_00: it's the likeliest outcome,
• 31:20
  SPEAKER_00: like things could change.
• 31:21
  SPEAKER_00: Of course.
• 31:23
  SPEAKER_00: And, but like, it's very close run.
• 31:26
  SPEAKER_00: And, you know, there's these weird, as you were suggesting, right?
• 31:30
  SPEAKER_00: Like, there aren't a whole lot of R plus two districts.
• 31:36
  The fact of gerrymandering creates these scenarios that sound
• 31:41
  bizarre but are
• 31:42
  actually statistically kind of likely where Democrats manage to
• 31:47
  blow over the
• 31:49
  gerrymanders and win just tons of seats unexpectedly because
• 31:53
  they do just enough
• 31:55
  SPEAKER_00: better than like the median –
• 31:57
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah, yeah.
• 32:00
  SPEAKER_00: It could happen.
• 32:01
  SPEAKER_00: And if it happens at D plus six or something like that,
• 32:07
  you could end up in a situation where Dems have a really big
• 32:09
  House majority and
• 32:11
  SPEAKER_00: still don't win the Senate,
• 32:12
  SPEAKER_00: which is why I'm like,
• 32:13
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not,
• 32:14
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 32:14
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not like maybe quite as bullish as Polymarket,
• 32:17
  SPEAKER_00: but I would still say like plurality,
• 32:20
  SPEAKER_00: that's the likeliest thing.
• 32:21
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 32:21
  SPEAKER_01: I just like,
• 32:22
  SPEAKER_01: I think this is important because I just,
• 32:24
  SPEAKER_01: I feel like frequently when we argue,
• 32:29
  SPEAKER_01: like you are playing the role,
• 32:31
  you are donning the mantle of ferocious critic of the
• 32:35
  establishment and you are
• 32:37
  trying to maneuver me into being apologist for party leaders
• 32:41
  and the establishment.
• 32:42
  SPEAKER_01: No, no, no.
• 32:43
  SPEAKER_01: I just, I think that that's often what's happening.
• 32:46
  SPEAKER_01: And I'm not denying you your right to continue to have your criticisms,
• 32:50
  SPEAKER_01: but like your view is that the current strategy,
• 32:54
  SPEAKER_01: whatever its flaws,
• 32:56
  SPEAKER_01: is like probably working.
• 32:58
  SPEAKER_01: And I just want to say that like that is not
• 33:02
  SPEAKER_01: where I stand on this.
• 33:04
  SPEAKER_01: Like, I think these gamblers are getting too aggressive.
• 33:07
  SPEAKER_01: I am closer to where the polling is.
• 33:11
  I think Democrats are going to underperform their 2018 results
• 33:15
  in the national popular vote.
• 33:17
  And I think that these close Senate races are going to converge
• 33:21
  to where the
• 33:22
  SPEAKER_01: generic balloting is.
• 33:23
  I think that,
• 33:24
  you know,
• 33:25
  Democrats over the past,
• 33:27
  since 2016,
• 33:27
  and particularly since 2018,
• 33:32
  SPEAKER_01: have been used to dominating fundraising.
• 33:34
  SPEAKER_01: And that is not going to be the case in 2026.
• 33:38
  SPEAKER_01: So,
• 33:39
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 33:39
  SPEAKER_01: guys like Sherrod Brown,
• 33:40
  SPEAKER_01: who,
• 33:41
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 33:42
  SPEAKER_01: at the beginning of his career,
• 33:45
  SPEAKER_01: like in 2006,
• 33:46
  SPEAKER_01: for example,
• 33:47
  SPEAKER_01: like Sherrod was outspent by his opponents,
• 33:49
  but it's been a long time since he or like any mainstream
• 33:53
  Democrats have run races
• 33:55
  SPEAKER_01: like that.
• 33:55
  SPEAKER_01: I think that you're looking at,
• 33:57
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 33:57
  SPEAKER_01: races in red states,
• 33:59
  SPEAKER_01: right,
• 33:59
  SPEAKER_01: where like the core guts of most people are like gun to my head.
• 34:04
  SPEAKER_01: I prefer Republicans.
• 34:06
  And Republicans will have lots of money to do lots of paid ads
• 34:10
  just like making the
• 34:12
  SPEAKER_01: point like this is Chuck Schumer's man in Ohio.
• 34:16
  SPEAKER_01: If you elect him, you're empowering Democrats to go back.
• 34:20
  SPEAKER_01: Dem out.
• 34:21
  SPEAKER_01: And like, that is not what you want.
• 34:24
  SPEAKER_01: And I don't think that,
• 34:27
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 34:27
  the national party has done really anything to make people in
• 34:33
  these red states
• 34:35
  SPEAKER_01: comfortable with the idea of empowering Chuck Schumer.
• 34:38
  SPEAKER_01: And I don't think with the possible exception of Peltola,
• 34:42
  SPEAKER_01: um,
• 34:43
  SPEAKER_01: that any of these people have established the
• 34:46
  SPEAKER_01: like really strong identities as different.
• 34:51
  SPEAKER_01: So I think Dems are going to cap out at North Carolina and Maine,
• 34:57
  SPEAKER_01: maybe Alaska,
• 34:59
  SPEAKER_01: are going to fall short in the Senate.
• 35:01
  SPEAKER_01: And I don't think that the sort of like
• 35:04
  coming home dynamic that you're counting on on the House
• 35:08
  generic ballot is going to
• 35:08
  SPEAKER_01: materialize.
• 35:09
  SPEAKER_01: Now, five points is like should be enough to win a House majority.
• 35:13
  But I think that I think that Democrats will find themselves on
• 35:18
  Election Day where
• 35:18
  SPEAKER_01: they are now on the polling,
• 35:20
  SPEAKER_01: which is that Trump is weaker than he was in 2018.
• 35:23
  SPEAKER_01: But Democratic election results are worse.
• 35:25
  But then why do you think why do you to what do you attribute
• 35:29
  the mismatch between
• 35:29
  SPEAKER_00: the generic ballot and Trump?
• 35:32
  SPEAKER_00: And special and off-year election results.
• 35:34
  Because,
• 35:34
  like,
• 35:34
  that is ultimately,
• 35:35
  like,
• 35:35
  what I'm trying to resolve in my own head.
• 35:37
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 35:37
  I mean,
• 35:38
  I just,
• 35:38
  I think it's differential turnout that will,
• 35:42
  you know,
• 35:43
  mitigate.
• 35:43
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not as impressed by the Virginia result as you are.
• 35:47
  SPEAKER_01: It's true.
• 35:48
  Spanberger overperformed,
• 35:51
  you know,
• 35:51
  a sort of straight generic ballot protection.
• 35:55
  SPEAKER_01: But Maggie Sherrill in New Jersey slightly underperformed.
• 35:58
  I think you have kind of different things happening in those
• 36:00
  states in terms of who they're-
• 36:02
  SPEAKER_00: But how much did they overperform 2024?
• 36:04
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, yeah.
• 36:05
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, they both ran a lot stronger in 2024.
• 36:10
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, yes.
• 36:11
  SPEAKER_00: That's the mood of the electorate right there.
• 36:13
  SPEAKER_01: Well, sort of.
• 36:14
  SPEAKER_01: Again,
• 36:14
  SPEAKER_01: if you look at the generic ballot,
• 36:17
  SPEAKER_01: though,
• 36:17
  SPEAKER_01: the generic ballot swing since 2024 has been bigger than the swing since.
• 36:24
  was in 2018 because Trump did so much better in the popular
• 36:28
  vote in 24 than he did in 2016.
• 36:32
  So,
• 36:32
  you know,
• 36:33
  these are large swings because Democrats did so badly in 24.
• 36:38
  SPEAKER_01: And by the same token, like...
• 36:40
  I think Democrats will hold the Senate seat in Michigan and in
• 36:45
  Georgia without too
• 36:46
  SPEAKER_01: much problem,
• 36:46
  SPEAKER_01: even though Trump won those states,
• 36:48
  SPEAKER_01: because modest swings are okay.
• 36:51
  SPEAKER_01: Anyway,
• 36:51
  I think we should not particularly debate the logic of this
• 36:55
  forecast at this point,
• 36:56
  SPEAKER_01: but just put them down.
• 36:57
  SPEAKER_01: Because what is this?
• 36:59
  SPEAKER_01: We're recording right at the beginning of April,
• 37:01
  SPEAKER_01: and we'll want to look back over the summer as things evolve.
• 37:06
  SPEAKER_01: But I just want to say the...
• 37:09
  Even though I would say you bring more anger to the table on
• 37:12
  any given Tuesday
• 37:14
  SPEAKER_01: morning about the Democrats,
• 37:18
  like you are fundamentally more optimistic than I am about the
• 37:22
  way this is going.
• 37:24
  And I want to square this as a way to lead into the second half
• 37:27
  of our conversation
• 37:28
  SPEAKER_00: about policy because –
• 37:31
  SPEAKER_00: For me,
• 37:31
  SPEAKER_00: I do think that the purpose of trying to lift the generic ballot,
• 37:38
  SPEAKER_00: in my view of things,
• 37:39
  of trying to lift the generic ballot to line up with special
• 37:42
  election results and
• 37:43
  SPEAKER_00: what you would expect,
• 37:45
  SPEAKER_00: given that Trump is more unpopular now,
• 37:46
  the Democrats should do better in this midterm than they did in
• 37:48
  the last one.
• 37:50
  SPEAKER_00: It's like cosmetic.
• 37:52
  SPEAKER_00: It would make them feel better.
• 37:52
  SPEAKER_00: It would make them sleep easier.
• 37:54
  SPEAKER_00: Like they wouldn't be anxious about the scenario that you're outlining.
• 37:58
  And that the way to do that is to bring home the 40 or 50
• 38:03
  percent of Democratic
• 38:04
  SPEAKER_00: voters who are like,
• 38:04
  SPEAKER_00: fuck this party.
• 38:06
  SPEAKER_00: They let us into, you know, into fascism or whatever.
• 38:10
  SPEAKER_00: And you do that by like,
• 38:11
  SPEAKER_00: like figuring out more and more ways to confront Trump,
• 38:14
  SPEAKER_00: make him back down,
• 38:15
  SPEAKER_00: etc.
• 38:16
  SPEAKER_00: But like,
• 38:17
  SPEAKER_00: by and large,
• 38:18
  SPEAKER_00: when I'm mad at Democrats for fucking up,
• 38:19
  SPEAKER_00: it's not because I'm like,
• 38:21
  SPEAKER_00: they're gonna blow the election.
• 38:22
  SPEAKER_00: I think that like,
• 38:24
  SPEAKER_00: The thermostatic swing against Trump was very predictable.
• 38:27
  I believed from the morning after the election that if there
• 38:31
  was a free and fair
• 38:31
  SPEAKER_00: election in 2026,
• 38:33
  SPEAKER_00: Democrats would be overwhelmingly favored to win it.
• 38:35
  What I want is for them to be using their power to try to slow
• 38:39
  Trump down from
• 38:42
  SPEAKER_00: causing damage in our country and around the world.
• 38:44
  SPEAKER_00: And I think that a happy,
• 38:46
  a happy side effect of doing that would be to make people
• 38:51
  respect Democrats more
• 38:52
  SPEAKER_00: and thus be more likely to tell pollsters,
• 38:54
  SPEAKER_00: hey,
• 38:55
  SPEAKER_00: in the generic ballot between Democrats and Republicans,
• 38:57
  SPEAKER_00: I want Democrats.
• 38:58
  SPEAKER_00: It's a theory.
• 38:59
  SPEAKER_00: And I think it I think it's like it.
• 39:01
  SPEAKER_01: Yes, yes, yes, yes.
• 39:03
  SPEAKER_01: I just really want to clarify,
• 39:05
  SPEAKER_01: though,
• 39:05
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 39:05
  SPEAKER_01: because this comes around,
• 39:06
  SPEAKER_01: that,
• 39:07
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 39:07
  SPEAKER_01: the baseline disagreement here,
• 39:09
  SPEAKER_01: fundamentally,
• 39:10
  SPEAKER_01: is that,
• 39:11
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 39:11
  SPEAKER_01: you are,
• 39:12
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 39:12
  SPEAKER_01: really bullish on the Democrats.
• 39:15
  SPEAKER_01: Like, you feel that Democrats should have, like...
• 39:20
  SPEAKER_01: blown off their election defeat more than like less self-reflection,
• 39:26
  SPEAKER_01: but just like more like it's going to be fine.
• 39:28
  SPEAKER_01: Like we just need to like fight.
• 39:29
  SPEAKER_00: Or just be a little bit chill about it.
• 39:31
  SPEAKER_00: You know, it's just like.
• 39:32
  SPEAKER_01: Sure.
• 39:33
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 39:33
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 39:33
  SPEAKER_01: Whereas like, I think like exactly the opposite.
• 39:35
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 39:36
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 39:36
  SPEAKER_01: That like I have,
• 39:37
  SPEAKER_01: I would say a much stronger,
• 39:40
  SPEAKER_01: much deeper,
• 39:41
  much more profound level of like rage and critique of the party
• 39:46
  establishment.
• 39:47
  SPEAKER_01: Like,
• 39:48
  SPEAKER_01: I don't think they've,
• 39:49
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 39:50
  SPEAKER_01: made,
• 39:50
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 39:51
  SPEAKER_01: a tactical error,
• 39:52
  SPEAKER_01: but it's probably going to work out okay,
• 39:55
  SPEAKER_01: but they're,
• 39:55
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 39:55
  SPEAKER_01: not really maximizing opportunities.
• 39:57
  SPEAKER_01: Like,
• 39:57
  SPEAKER_01: I think they should,
• 39:59
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 39:59
  SPEAKER_01: fucking tear up the playbook and,
• 40:01
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 40:02
  SPEAKER_01: drastic,
• 40:03
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 40:03
  SPEAKER_01: all the shit that,
• 40:04
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 40:04
  SPEAKER_01: the most insane leftists say about how terrible the Democrats are.
• 40:08
  Like,
• 40:08
  I agree with all of that,
• 40:10
  but just,
• 40:10
  like,
• 40:10
  with the opposite inflection.
• 40:12
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 40:12
  SPEAKER_01: No, but like, but like, you know what I mean?
• 40:14
  Like,
• 40:14
  like I'm,
• 40:15
  I'm trying to say not that like,
• 40:16
  oh,
• 40:17
  you know,
• 40:17
  the way they voted on it.
• 40:19
  SPEAKER_01: Like that,
• 40:19
  like there's like needs to be like a real change because I
• 40:23
  don't think that this is
• 40:24
  SPEAKER_01: going to work.
• 40:26
  SPEAKER_00: Look,
• 40:27
  we are going to take a break here and talk about actual policy
• 40:32
  and why the
• 40:32
  SPEAKER_00: Democratic agenda looks the way it does on the other side.
• 40:35
  But I think that there are some things that you want to do in
• 40:39
  upsetting the apple
• 40:39
  SPEAKER_00: cart that I agree with,
• 40:40
  SPEAKER_00: like oust Chuck Schumer all for it.
• 40:43
  SPEAKER_00: I think that would help Sherrod Brown.
• 40:46
  I think Sherrod Brown should just say,
• 40:48
  I'm not going to support Chuck for leader.
• 40:50
  SPEAKER_00: His time has come and gone now.
• 40:52
  You know,
• 40:52
  I don't know how effective that'll be,
• 40:53
  but like,
• 40:54
  he's free to do it.
• 40:55
  SPEAKER_00: And, and like,
• 40:59
  SPEAKER_00: The general idea,
• 41:00
  the generic idea that Democrats should be doing more overt
• 41:05
  things to make voters
• 41:07
  SPEAKER_00: think,
• 41:07
  SPEAKER_00: OK,
• 41:08
  this party is shaking things up because the last incarnation of
• 41:13
  it was like not
• 41:15
  SPEAKER_00: doing it for me.
• 41:16
  I agree that like it is better for outcomes and just as
• 41:20
  insurance to try something
• 41:22
  SPEAKER_00: new when the last thing you tried failed.
• 41:24
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 41:26
  SPEAKER_00: But I think that.
• 41:30
  SPEAKER_00: Well,
• 41:30
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know what direction the arrow points,
• 41:32
  whether you think that the generic ballot is revealing a truth
• 41:36
  and the truth is
• 41:37
  rooted in the fact that the democratic policy agenda is too far
• 41:40
  left and thus the
• 41:41
  SPEAKER_00: solution is to yoke that agenda much further to the right.
• 41:46
  SPEAKER_00: But you definitely think something along those lines about –
• 41:51
  about what it would take for Democrats to win the landslide
• 41:54
  that they really need
• 41:55
  SPEAKER_00: to win to save the country.
• 41:57
  SPEAKER_00: And, and like, I don't,
• 42:01
  SPEAKER_00: disagree with you across every single policy issue that,
• 42:04
  that Democrats are like in the right place versus where you
• 42:08
  think they're like too
• 42:09
  SPEAKER_00: far to the left.
• 42:09
  But I don't see the evolution of the democratic policy agenda
• 42:14
  in at all the same way you do.
• 42:15
  SPEAKER_00: And so I think we should,
• 42:16
  we should discuss that now and we can maybe backfill what
• 42:20
  changes to the policy
• 42:22
  SPEAKER_00: might do to,
• 42:22
  SPEAKER_00: to the polls.
• 42:23
  SPEAKER_00: Sure.
• 42:23
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 42:24
  SPEAKER_00: So if you want to hear that part of the conversation,
• 42:25
  SPEAKER_00: go to politics.fm and upgrade your subscription.