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Indiana vs Miami CFP National Championship Preview & Prediction! · Winning Cures Everything | College Football

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: We got one game left in the twenty twenty five
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: college football season. We're already into twenty twenty six. Let's
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: talk about the national championship game Indiana and Miami. Well,
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: come in Winning Cures Everything. It's a college football podcast.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: I'm your host, Gary Seekers at Gary WCEE on all
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• 0:27
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• 0:31
  Speaker 1: Before we shift into the off season jargon, before I
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: start giving you my real opinions on things that are
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: happening in the sport. We still have one football game
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: left to discuss. And as you have noticed on this
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: channel this season, I haven't really done a bunch of recaps.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: We've gone directly into preview mode because it doesn't matter
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: what happened, it matters what's going to happen now. The
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: audio podcast is one thing, and as we go through
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: on YouTube and whatnot, we'll rehash some of the things
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: that did happen in this past college football season, things
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: that might happen going forward, et cetera. We're gonna have
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: a lot to discuss, So stick with us because I
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  Speaker 1: written review. But that said, let's dive into the last game.
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: Of course, if you have not already, go ahead and
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: do me that favor. Like the video, subscribe to the channel,
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: all that good stuff, and jump in the comments. Let
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: me know what you think is going to happen here,
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: and we'll ride with that. The National Championship game in
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  Speaker 1: Miami on Monday night, hard Rock Stadium, that is Miami's
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  Speaker 1: home field. I don't know if it's gonna feel like
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  Speaker 1: a home game, but there will be plenty of Miami fans,
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  Speaker 1: plenty of Indiana fans as well. The ticket prices are absurd,
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  Speaker 1: but it's gonna be Monday, January nineteenth, less than a
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  Speaker 1: week away, and I'm excited about it. Indiana currently favored
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  Speaker 1: by eight and a half. We have a total of
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  Speaker 1: forty eight and a half on the game. The total
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  Speaker 1: has not moved, but the number has gone from Indiana
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  Speaker 1: minus seven and a half. It was before the Indiana
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  Speaker 1: Oregon playoff game. It was a hypothetical matchup. Oregon would
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: have been favored by two over Miami, and they had
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: Indiana favored by five and a half over Miami, and
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  Speaker 1: then we all saw what happened where Indiana completely throttled
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  Speaker 1: Oregon in a rematch and the line jumped to seven
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  Speaker 1: and a half. It's although we up to eight and
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  Speaker 1: a half. Makes sense because my projected stat spread has
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  Speaker 1: Indiana minus eight point four to four, so it's pretty close.
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  Speaker 1: Of course, I have a projected total of like sixty
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  Speaker 1: on this game. Now why that would be, I have
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  Speaker 1: no idea, considering both teams are outside the top one
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  Speaker 1: twenty five as far as plays per minute, so we're
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: looking at a slow paced game for this one. But
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  Speaker 1: either way, my power rating has Indiana by three. My
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: last four weeks has Indiana by twenty one point three.
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  Speaker 1: Now take that with a grain of salt because it
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: is based it's based on just basic overall numbers. Of
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  Speaker 1: what has happened most recently. Right, the last four weeks
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: had Oregon favored over Indiana last week, that was a mess.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: Why anybody would have gone with that, I have no idea.
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  Speaker 1: It's easier said in hindsight. Right, Okay, there is one
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  Speaker 1: common opponent between these two teams, and that would be
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: Ohio State. Let's pull this up another schedule, or the
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: thing looks a little different. Indiana played Ohio State. It
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  Speaker 1: was a thirteen to ten ball game, and let's get
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  Speaker 1: up here where you can actually see it. Indiana out
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: gained Ohio State. They only ran for three point five yards.
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  Speaker 1: Teams that have held Indiana to three and a half
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  Speaker 1: yards or lower have had them in pretty tight games. Iowa,
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  Speaker 1: Penn State, Ohio State, that's really it. But Ohio State
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  Speaker 1: only ran for two point two yards. Right, Both teams
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  Speaker 1: had a turnover, both teams pretty even as far as
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  Speaker 1: time of possession. You could say that Ohio State probably
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: should have won that game. The way that I viewed it,
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  Speaker 1: I mean, they had two drives that stalled late, they
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  Speaker 1: missed a field goal late. I mean it was a
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  Speaker 1: whole thing. Now, Ohio State and Miami, different game altogether,
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  Speaker 1: Ohio State had two turnovers, Miami only had one. Miami
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: had the time of possession advantage. Miami was able to
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  Speaker 1: run the football for four point one yards per carry.
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  Speaker 1: Ohio State only one point nine yards per carry. Huge
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  Speaker 1: difference there. Miami can stop the run period. If you
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: look at this, you can't see it over there. Let's
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: see if we can swap that around. Because this is neutral,
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  Speaker 1: it doesn't matter who's at home. There you can kind
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  Speaker 1: of see there. Miami number three in the country in
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: sacks per game. Indiana's number thirty six in sacks allowed
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  Speaker 1: per game. On the other side, Indiana number thirteen in
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  Speaker 1: sacks per game, Indiana number nineteen. Or sorry, Miami is
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  Speaker 1: number nineteen in sacks allowed per game. Let's go back.
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  Speaker 1: Let's take a look at who can finish drives. Miami
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  Speaker 1: on defense number two in points allowed per scoring opportunity.
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  Speaker 1: Indiana's offense is number one. On the other side, Miami
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  Speaker 1: is number twenty two in points per scoring opportunity. Indiana's
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  Speaker 1: defense is number one. The key to the game to
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: me is the line of scrimmage. Is Miami as good
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  Speaker 1: at the line of scrimmage as we believe that they are,
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  Speaker 1: They didn't have much of an effect against Ole miss
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  Speaker 1: But that has a lot to do with ole Missus
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: style of play. They play fast, they play quick, they
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: play get away right. You're trying to get away from
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  Speaker 1: Mesador and Bain. You are getting the ball out quickly.
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  Speaker 1: You are not letting plays develop down the field. You
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: are doing all kinds of things. Now. When you are
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  Speaker 1: letting plays develop down the field, it's when you've gone
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  Speaker 1: quick place before that, So it kind of slows down
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  Speaker 1: that pass rush a little bit. Indiana, I think can
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: do both, although if you look again, plays per minute,
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  Speaker 1: the Indiana's number one thirty one and plays per game.
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  Speaker 1: Alabama got to run fifty plays against Indiana. How many
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  Speaker 1: is Miami? Right? If you look at Miami, they've they've
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  Speaker 1: been better about running the ball, but still overall average
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  Speaker 1: on the season. Number eighty six predicted points added per rush.
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  Speaker 1: They are number seventy six in yards per rush, Number
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  Speaker 1: forty in rushing success, number sixty seven in rushing explosiveness.
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  Speaker 1: You're not expecting them to break off some huge play.
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  Speaker 1: There are number thirty three in offensive line yards, number
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  Speaker 1: fifteen and stuff rate allowed. Indiana's number four and number
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  Speaker 1: three on defense. In those metrics, Indiana number three in
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  Speaker 1: PPA allowed per rush, number seven in yards allowed per rush,
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  Speaker 1: number four in rushing success rate allowed. If Miami is
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  Speaker 1: going to have success, I think they're going to have
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  Speaker 1: to do it throwing the football, and they are number
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  Speaker 1: fifty four in interceptions thrown per pass attempt, Indiana's number
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  Speaker 1: ten and interceptions gained per passe attempt defended. The turnover
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  Speaker 1: margin thing is good like Indiana is fantastic at this
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  Speaker 1: number one in the country. They are number three in
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  Speaker 1: giveaways per game at number nine, and takeaways per game
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  Speaker 1: Miami is pretty good number twenty three and giveaways per
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  Speaker 1: game number twenty six and take a per game. Big
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  Speaker 1: difference here, of course, penalty s per game Indiana number five,
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  Speaker 1: Miami number one oh four. Looks like we're gonna have
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  Speaker 1: a big twelve crew for this. I think that means
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  Speaker 1: they're gonna let them get away with stuff throwing the football.
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: We'll see, we'll see what that means. I mean, it
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  Speaker 1: could mean any number of different things, because sometimes referees
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  Speaker 1: act differently. Indiana number one and PPA margin, Miami is
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  Speaker 1: number fifteen. If you look at talent, which has not
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  Speaker 1: mattered in the slightest when it comes to Indiana again,
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  Speaker 1: number forty eight and overall talent rank for the Hoosiers
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  Speaker 1: number eight for Miami. If you look at position groups,
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  Speaker 1: Indiana's offensive line number sixteen, Miami's defensive line is number one,
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  Speaker 1: Indiana's defensive line number fifteen, Miami's offensive line number nine.
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  Speaker 1: Then you start looking at running back versus linebackers. Dana
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  Speaker 1: number fourteen running backs, Miami number twenty four, linebackers, Miami
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  Speaker 1: number thirteen running backs, Indiana number nineteen linebackers, Miami number four.
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  Speaker 1: In skill talent, A lot of that's malachay Toni, but
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  Speaker 1: they got other dudes too. Indiana is number eight in
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  Speaker 1: back seven, Indiana number ten in skill talent, Miami number fourteen.
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  Speaker 1: Not talent per se, but position group right. Talent hasn't mattered.
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  Speaker 1: Experience matters, and Indiana's got forty seven. I think it
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: was forty or forty three guys on the roster that
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: are upperclassmen, like fourth year juniors or higher, a lot
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  Speaker 1: of experience. Miami's got quite a few, but they also
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: have some insanely talented young guys as well. Malachay TONI
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  Speaker 1: is the best example of that. But Mark Fletcher is
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  Speaker 1: an old guy. Carson Beck is an old guy, Ruben
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  Speaker 1: Bain is no old guy. Messador is an old guy.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: Magoa is a He's an old guy. Is what it is. Okay,
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  Speaker 1: let's take a look at strength of schedule. Somehow Miami
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: has a harder strength schedule at this point. Doesn't make
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  Speaker 1: that big of difference in the DA number fifteen Miami
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  Speaker 1: number twelve. But I still have Indiana power add higher.
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  Speaker 1: I don't think that the audience is going to matter.
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  Speaker 1: I don't think the crowd is going to necessarily matter.
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  Speaker 1: I think it's going to be pretty evenly split. Miami
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  Speaker 1: has had a lot of success against quarterbacks that are
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  Speaker 1: not great, not upper classmen, per se. I think that's
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: the Kegsest way to put it. Julian saying, young guy,
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: easily confused. Marcel Reid not the youngest, but also easily confused. Right,
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: and you were dealing with wind and everything else that day.
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  Speaker 1: So it was what it was for Miami. They lost
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  Speaker 1: to SMU. Kevin Jennings, good defense for SMU, they were
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: able to get that done. Louisville good defense, older quarterback,
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  Speaker 1: not easily confused. You see where I'm going here, both
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  Speaker 1: of those games. More had to do with the offense,
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: you know, giving the ball away, making mistakes, and that
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: is where I think it's an issue for Miami because
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  Speaker 1: I think they're more prone to making mistakes. They are
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  Speaker 1: a little bit more aggressive, not as far as pace
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  Speaker 1: of play, but you know, Miami is number seven and
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: havoc on defense. On offense, they're number ten and havoc allowed,
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  Speaker 1: but number thirty pass rate, number thirty in passing explosiveness,
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  Speaker 1: number twenty six and takeaways per game, but number one
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  Speaker 1: four in penalties per game as well. They are number
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  Speaker 1: twenty four in defensive red zone touchdown rate allowed. They
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: are number five in points per game allowed, their number
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  Speaker 1: twenty nine an offensive red zone touchdown rate. They don't
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  Speaker 1: finish drives at a high, high, high rate, and they
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  Speaker 1: don't get a ton of scoring opportunities per game, number
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  Speaker 1: fifty one in the country. There. So when you look
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: at five factors overall, Indiana's number two, Miami's number three.
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  Speaker 1: If you factor in talent, which again has not mattered,
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: but Indiana would be a number eight, Miami would be
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  Speaker 1: number two. Everything says that this should be a close ballgame.
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  Speaker 1: I think if Miami can stop the run and they
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: don't make any other mistakes, then sure we could see
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: a one possession ball game late. Absolutely, but Miami is
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: dinged up on defense, especially in the secondary. That is
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: not where you want to be dinged up against this
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  Speaker 1: Indiana team, who is number one in PBA p pass
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  Speaker 1: number two in yards per passe attempt, number one in QBR,
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  Speaker 1: number two in passing success rate, number nine in passing explosiveness.
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  Speaker 1: That's not good. Ole Miss was able to feast on
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: that secondary in the second half last week once they
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: had issues, Right, you got the safety from Washington. W's
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: his name Xavier Either way, I know you Miami fans
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: are going to jump in the comments and tell me
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: he's going to be out for the first half of
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: this game. This could all get sideways quickly. I mean
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: you saw it with Oregon last week. You give the
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: ball all the way, even just one time. Indiana don't miss.
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: It's kind of disgusting what they're able to do. Available
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: yards margin Indiana's number three, Miami is number ten, Indiana
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: number seven on offense, number four on defense. Miami is
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: number thirty on offense, number thirteen on defense. Now, the
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: margin obviously leads to Miami being number ten and Indiana
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: number three. But until I see it again, which I've
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: already seen it against Ohio State and against Penn State
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: and against Iowa and whatever, I don't know how you
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: can bet against this Indiana team who feels like nobody
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: can stop them. I'm gonna have to go with the Hoosiers.
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: I know that we didn't get the best of the
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: number because I waited until Wednesday or Tuesday to record this.
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: I know I'm going against my numbers other than the
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: last four. Even at eight and a half, I still
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: feel like it is more likely that we get a
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: double digit Indiana win than we do Miami staying close
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: in this thing because Miami has gotten to play Texas
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: A and m Ole Miss in Ohio State, all teams
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: with flaws. Don't get me wrong, Indiana has also played
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: teams with flaws. Miami has to play closer to the vest.
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: MAMMI won close games, Indiana destroyed teams, and I think
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: Miami is much more likely to give Indiana a chance
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: to blow them out as opposed to playing a tight game.
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: So with that said, I think we're about to crown
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: a sixteen to Oho national champion. For the first time,
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: and I will take them to cover the eight and
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: a half. Give me the Hoosiers minus eight and a half,
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: all right, the last recap of the season. We're going
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: to Indiana minus eight and a half. Did pretty well
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: this year, actually, twenty five seventeen and one in bowl season.
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: That's not bad, not bad at all. We didn't get
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: the Ole miss cover at three and a half, got
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: mighty close, though, mighty close. We did have Indiana covering
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: the four, so that put us at twenty five at
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: seventeen and one up eight games during bowl season. It's
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: not bad, not bad at all, all right. You guys
• 17:40
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• 17:42
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• 17:44
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  Speaker 1: me some topics things that you guys want to talk about.
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  Speaker 1: I will be talking about the expansion of the playoff,
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• 18:16
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• 18:20
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• 18:24
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• 18:27
  Speaker 1: of it right here at Winning Cures Everything. But that said, though,
• 18:30
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