Transcript

Sedate Of The Union · Politix

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SPEAKER_01: Chuck Schumer,
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SPEAKER_01: for better or worse,
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does not have at his disposal a bunch of fuckwad propagandists
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who will all be
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SPEAKER_01: like,
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SPEAKER_01: that absurd thing Chuck Schumer just said,
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SPEAKER_01: that's right on.
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SPEAKER_01: Because like, it was stupid.
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SPEAKER_01: It was a stupid thing to say.
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Hey,
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everyone,
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you're listening to a free preview of the Politics Podcast.
0:23
SPEAKER_00: This week,
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SPEAKER_00: Donald Trump delivered an endlessly long State of the Union address,
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SPEAKER_00: shadowed by a big defeat at the Supreme Court,
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SPEAKER_00: which overturned his illegal tariff regime,
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SPEAKER_00: and by mounting Epstein files revelations,
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including the news that the Justice Department has withheld
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documents pertaining to
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SPEAKER_00: a credible accusation that Trump sexually assaulted a minor in the 1980s.
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Also,
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Abigail Spanberger delivered the official response to the State
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of the Union.
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SPEAKER_00: We're going to talk about all that on this episode.
0:53
SPEAKER_00: So if you want to listen to the whole conversation,
0:55
SPEAKER_00: you can upgrade your subscription to paid at politics.fm.
1:02
SPEAKER_00: Hello and welcome to the Politics Podcast.
1:04
SPEAKER_00: I'm Brian Boyler.
1:05
SPEAKER_00: I'm Matthew Glacius.
1:07
So Donald Trump delivered the first State of the Union address
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of his second
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presidency in which he apologized for his long friendship with
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Jeffrey Epstein for
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SPEAKER_00: his conduct.
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SPEAKER_00: With the women and girls Epstein brought around,
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SPEAKER_00: he threw himself at the mercy of Congress,
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SPEAKER_00: begging them,
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SPEAKER_00: Leader Jeffries,
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SPEAKER_00: sir,
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SPEAKER_00: Leader Schumer,
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SPEAKER_00: sir,
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SPEAKER_00: please codify those tariffs.
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SPEAKER_00: I regret trying to steal this power from you.
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He said he's going to let all people without criminal histories
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out of ICE detention.
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SPEAKER_00: I think it was a real pivot, the likes of which no one's ever seen.
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SPEAKER_00: Were you impressed as I was?
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SPEAKER_01: You know, it was good.
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SPEAKER_01: It was rousing.
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SPEAKER_01: Brief to the point.
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So,
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you know,
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it's interesting because they,
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you know,
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a year ago he did a speech.
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SPEAKER_01: And for some reason that I don't fully understand,
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the first State of the Union of a president's term like isn't
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really a State of the
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SPEAKER_00: Union.
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SPEAKER_00: I don't know if this is the right answer,
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but I think it's like a newly inaugurated president has been
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president for like a
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SPEAKER_00: month.
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And so if the State of the Union is great or if the State of
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the Union is bad,
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SPEAKER_00: it's really not on them.
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SPEAKER_00: So they don't.
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SPEAKER_01: Yeah, if you're like really, really literal.
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So,
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I mean,
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so it was a problem because last year's speech was the longest.
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SPEAKER_01: Joint address.
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SPEAKER_01: Joint address to Congress of all time.
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SPEAKER_01: And so, you know, but it was going to be confusing.
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SPEAKER_01: Like, should we say because really it's the State of the Union.
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SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
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Anyway,
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so he this year he broke his own record to set the longest
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State of the Union ever.
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SPEAKER_01: in what is formally, properly, officially a State of the Union.
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SPEAKER_01: And Bill Clinton had the previous record.
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SPEAKER_00: Yeah, and I congratulate him.
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SPEAKER_00: You know what?
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He should just deliver a two-hour opening statement when he
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testifies about the Epstein stuff.
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SPEAKER_00: Just so that he could like reclaim his- Whatever he wants to talk about.
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I think he should just do a tight two hours on the budget
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surplus of 1999 and what
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SPEAKER_01: happened after that.
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SPEAKER_01: So, you know, you could tell by the end, you know-
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SPEAKER_01: Part of what's funny about these things is that,
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SPEAKER_01: you know,
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a State of the Union address is normally supposed to have like
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a theme and
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SPEAKER_01: something.
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And so on some level,
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this was like the America 250 State of the Union address.
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SPEAKER_01: It started that way and it also ended that way.
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SPEAKER_01: And Trump was like rushing through the text at the end.
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This like stuff about the pioneers and the planes and how the
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best is yet to come
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SPEAKER_01: for America and
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you know,
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the revolution lives on in all of our hearts,
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um,
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et cetera,
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et cetera,
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et cetera.
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SPEAKER_01: Um,
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SPEAKER_01: you could tell,
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SPEAKER_01: you know,
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SPEAKER_01: the,
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SPEAKER_01: the,
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SPEAKER_01: the bulk of this very long speech was a lot of,
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SPEAKER_01: um,
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SPEAKER_01: you know,
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SPEAKER_01: a lot of bits,
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SPEAKER_01: right?
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Like he brought out like one really old World War II veteran
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and it was kind of cool.
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SPEAKER_00: Korean War.
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SPEAKER_01: Oh, but then he had like a second really old veteran.
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SPEAKER_00: Oh, well that, maybe that was the Korean War one.
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SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
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The,
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the,
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the,
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the,
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the old fighter pilot who got the congressional medal of
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SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
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SPEAKER_01: Honor, which is.
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Yeah,
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there was a different there was a different one earlier with a
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similar thing.
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SPEAKER_01: And he had he had a pilot from Venezuela.
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SPEAKER_01: He had the men's hockey team.
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SPEAKER_01: You know, there was like a lot of a lot of this stuff going on.
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SPEAKER_01: You know.
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SPEAKER_00: But look,
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like I think that there there would have been some logic to a
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much shorter speech
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SPEAKER_00: that was like.
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you know,
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typical Trump braggadocio about how great America is at its
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250th anniversary.
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SPEAKER_00: And look,
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SPEAKER_00: to celebrate that greatness,
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we're going to give out all these awards and honor all these
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people and then end on
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SPEAKER_00: that note and like no policy content,
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SPEAKER_00: just,
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SPEAKER_00: you know,
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SPEAKER_00: valedictory shit.
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SPEAKER_00: And,
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SPEAKER_00: but instead he like interspersed that with,
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SPEAKER_00: you know,
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SPEAKER_00: incitement and lying and like all the,
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All the normal shit,
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like all the things that make these events so intolerable and
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infuriating.
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And it's like,
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it's thematically confused because it's like,
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it's the golden age.
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And so let me tell this grieving mother about the time her
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daughter was viciously
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SPEAKER_00: murdered in gory detail,
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SPEAKER_00: right?
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SPEAKER_00: Like for all of America to watch.
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SPEAKER_00: It's bizarre.
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SPEAKER_00: It's like a very strange...
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SPEAKER_00: or whatever you call it.
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SPEAKER_00: But it like- Well,
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SPEAKER_01: I mean,
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SPEAKER_01: that's what I was aiming for,
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SPEAKER_01: which is that like the guts of the speech don't relate to the thematics,
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SPEAKER_01: you know?
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SPEAKER_01: And like, it's fine.
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SPEAKER_01: Like, apparently this doesn't matter.
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SPEAKER_01: But just as a question of construction-
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SPEAKER_01: You know, there's no, the high point for Trump in the speech, right?
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Like the set piece that really delivered was he has this thing
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and he's like,
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SPEAKER_01: I'm going to say something.
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And I,
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you know,
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every state of the union,
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the president says a lot of stuff.
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SPEAKER_01: Normally members of his own party stand and clap for it.
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SPEAKER_01: Members of the opposition party tend not to.
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SPEAKER_01: Sometimes you get bipartisan applause, et cetera.
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SPEAKER_01: But Trump like really lampshade when he's like,
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I'm going to say something and everybody who agrees with me
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should stand up and
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SPEAKER_01: clap.
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SPEAKER_01: And he's like, wait for it, because this is a trap for the Democrats.
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And then he's like,
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we should value American citizens over illegal immigrants.
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And then all the Democrats stayed seated except for Henry
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Cuellar,
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the GOAT.
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SPEAKER_01: And then, you know, he was like, shame on you.
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SPEAKER_01: You guys are sick, you know, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
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And,
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you know,
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there's a lot of other stuff in the speech,
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but that was like,
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SPEAKER_01: That was like,
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SPEAKER_01: you know,
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the moment that like made the political point that Trump wants
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to make the
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SPEAKER_01: centerpiece of his argument,
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SPEAKER_01: but he doesn't,
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SPEAKER_01: build the rest of the speech really around that in any particular way.
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You know,
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you have Stephen Miller tweeting about it later,
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so on and so forth.
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SPEAKER_01: It was a good sort of bit of stagecraft, right?
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SPEAKER_01: But as everybody knows, incredibly cliche,
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SPEAKER_01: At this point,
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SPEAKER_01: a lot of voters are unhappy with the trajectory of the country,
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SPEAKER_01: affordability,
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SPEAKER_01: blah,
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SPEAKER_01: blah,
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SPEAKER_01: blah,
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SPEAKER_01: blah,
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SPEAKER_01: blah,
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SPEAKER_01: blah,
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SPEAKER_01: blah,
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SPEAKER_01: blah,
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SPEAKER_01: blah.
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Incumbents facing that kind of thing always face like a
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strategic choice,
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right?
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SPEAKER_01: Do you say, I feel your pain and here's what I'm doing to help?
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SPEAKER_01: Or do you say, you know,
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SPEAKER_01: you guys are wrong and actually things are amazing.
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SPEAKER_01: And Trump clearly opted for, you guys are wrong, everything's amazing.
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He said over and over again that all of the problems of the
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Biden era had been solved.
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SPEAKER_01: He said that the price of everything was coming down.
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SPEAKER_01: He said that the economy was growing at a blistering pace,
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SPEAKER_01: that it was the greatest economy of all time,
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SPEAKER_01: blah,
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SPEAKER_01: blah,
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SPEAKER_01: blah,
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SPEAKER_01: blah,
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SPEAKER_01: blah,
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SPEAKER_01: blah,
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SPEAKER_01: blah,
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SPEAKER_01: blah,
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SPEAKER_01: blah.
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SPEAKER_01: And, you know, that's the...
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SPEAKER_01: to the extent that there's like information in these kinds of speeches,
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SPEAKER_01: that's the information,
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SPEAKER_01: right?
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Like you can play this question of the cost of living crisis in
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two different ways.
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SPEAKER_01: If you are Trump and the Republicans and he is opting for the like,
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SPEAKER_01: Tell people everything's great.
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SPEAKER_01: Try to talk it up.
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SPEAKER_01: Try to try to lift the spirits of the economy,
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SPEAKER_01: which is,
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SPEAKER_01: you know,
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SPEAKER_01: a non obvious play versus like Trump thinks immigrants are bad.
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SPEAKER_01: Like we knew that.
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SPEAKER_01: Right.
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I think that this binary only really holds if you're the
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incumbent and you're
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SPEAKER_00: responsible for whatever reason it is people are upset at you.
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SPEAKER_00: Then you have to either say,
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SPEAKER_00: I feel your pain,
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SPEAKER_00: or you have to fudge the facts about what's really going on.
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SPEAKER_00: I think that if you inherit a bad situation,
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SPEAKER_00: which Trump did not,
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SPEAKER_00: but Joe Biden did,
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SPEAKER_00: and you get things into better shape,
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SPEAKER_00: but not
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like all the way recovered,
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you can do the Reagan morning in America thing.
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SPEAKER_00: You can say, you know, we've turned the corner.
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SPEAKER_00: We have more work to do.
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And like that was the big,
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like missing piece of rhetoric from Joe Biden's presidency.
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SPEAKER_00: And I agree with you that
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SPEAKER_00: Like now that Trump has taken over and made things worse,
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I don't know that the like don't believe your lying eyes thing
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or at least don't
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SPEAKER_00: believe that the feeling that you have about the situation is real.
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SPEAKER_00: Like what's true is what I'm saying.
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And like I go back and forth on how I feel about that because
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once upon a time,
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SPEAKER_00: I think I would have said and been fairly declarative that like it's it's
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SPEAKER_00: politically dangerous for Democrats to just.
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SPEAKER_00: Be there while he tells all these lies,
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SPEAKER_00: because at the end of the day,
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SPEAKER_00: the way people feel about the country is pretty heavily mediated.
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And if they hear him talking about how 18 trillion dollars in
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investment and
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SPEAKER_00: unemployment lowest in history and blah,
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SPEAKER_00: blah,
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SPEAKER_00: blah,
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that like some of them are going to shake off their bad vibes
10:07
and they're going to
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SPEAKER_00: be like,
10:07
SPEAKER_00: oh,
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SPEAKER_00: I didn't realize things had gotten better.
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SPEAKER_00: And like, I'm not sure.
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SPEAKER_00: If he's going to get that kind of response,
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SPEAKER_00: like this malaise that we're living through seems pretty sticky.
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I thought he was going to get a big economic improvement
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dividend as soon as he was
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SPEAKER_00: inaugurated and it just has not worked out that way.
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SPEAKER_00: But like the other aspect of this is like the –
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SPEAKER_00: in a weird way,
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SPEAKER_00: the quotidian lying about where the economy is,
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SPEAKER_00: like in the second half of the speech,
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SPEAKER_00: he gets really bloody and like,
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SPEAKER_00: you know,
10:39
SPEAKER_00: he's calling Democrats crazy and all that.
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SPEAKER_00: But for the first half or the first quarter,
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it's like just lies about what he claims to have accomplished
10:47
in his first year.
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SPEAKER_00: And so it was like, you know, $18 trillion in investment.
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SPEAKER_00: Inflation was a record high under Biden, which is false.
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SPEAKER_00: And now he's brought it down, which is basically also false.
10:58
SPEAKER_00: And I find like that shit to be...
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SPEAKER_00: in some ways, like, more oppressive feeling.
11:05
Like,
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this is subjective to me than,
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like,
11:07
the,
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you know,
11:09
the corruption or the tyranny stuff.
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SPEAKER_00: Because,
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SPEAKER_00: like,
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SPEAKER_00: there is...
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I don't think there's any good way anymore to fight that kind
11:18
of Orwellian lying
11:19
SPEAKER_00: without coming across as a kind of,
11:21
SPEAKER_00: like,
11:21
SPEAKER_00: scoldy hall monitor fact checker type.
11:24
SPEAKER_00: Like, in 2012, do you remember, like...
11:30
Paul Ryan got picked as VP and then he goes to give his
11:33
acceptance speech at the convention.
11:34
And he had like gotten a bunch of journalists to like launder
11:38
for him a reputation
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SPEAKER_00: as being like this wonkish boy scout who was super honest or whatever.
11:44
And then he goes on in this speech to tell a bunch of lies
11:47
about how the budget
11:47
SPEAKER_00: works and the deficit and the this and that.
11:50
SPEAKER_00: And like everyone was like, I didn't know Paul Ryan was capable of lying.
11:54
SPEAKER_00: And like everyone was appalled.
11:56
SPEAKER_00: And like so like a dozen different
11:59
Fact checkers working for a dozen different outlets wrote a
12:03
dozen different fact checks.
12:04
And then it became a thing that Paul Ryan had gone to accept
12:08
the VP nomination and
12:10
SPEAKER_00: just lied his ass off.
12:11
SPEAKER_00: And it was like,
12:12
SPEAKER_00: you know,
12:13
SPEAKER_00: not the difference maker in the election,
12:14
SPEAKER_00: but like it was he paid a political price for it.
12:18
SPEAKER_00: And like 12 years later, the lying out of Trump is so crazy.
12:22
constant and the media is so fractured and like what's left of
12:26
the news business is
12:27
SPEAKER_00: so exhausted by having to fact check Trump that nothing happens.
12:32
He just says these things and then they're out there and you
12:36
can't chase them down.
12:37
SPEAKER_00: And and A, you have to go on knowing that they're lies.
12:41
But B,
12:42
like you have to kind of wonder,
12:43
like,
12:43
who's being who's being bamboozled by this?
12:46
SPEAKER_00: Like 40 million people probably watched that.
12:50
SPEAKER_01: Yeah,
12:51
SPEAKER_01: I mean,
12:51
SPEAKER_01: you know,
12:52
SPEAKER_01: I mean,
12:53
SPEAKER_01: also part of the question with any of this is like,
12:56
SPEAKER_01: who is Trump speaking to?
12:58
SPEAKER_01: And like, what is the audience for Trumpism, you know, at all, right?
13:04
At this sort of point in time with his numbers sort of down and
13:09
sort of bleak.
13:09
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
13:11
SPEAKER_01: But I mean,
13:11
SPEAKER_01: again,
13:12
SPEAKER_01: I thought it was not like shocking,
13:14
SPEAKER_01: but it was informative that he is digging in his heels on tariffs.
13:20
SPEAKER_01: You know,
13:20
he said he was more restrained in his commentary about the
13:25
Supreme Court than he
13:26
SPEAKER_01: was at the press conference.
13:28
SPEAKER_01: He did not...
13:30
SPEAKER_01: You know, call them sleazeballs or sleazebags or whatever it was.
13:35
He didn't repeat the accusation that the justices were under
13:39
foreign influence,
13:40
SPEAKER_01: but he said the Supreme Court decision was really,
13:42
SPEAKER_01: really bad.
13:43
SPEAKER_01: But then he kept assuring everybody that high tariffs were coming back.
13:49
SPEAKER_01: Thanks to these other statutory authorities.
13:52
And he insisted that the prior tariffing policy had been
13:56
working really,
13:57
really well.
13:57
SPEAKER_01: Right.
13:58
SPEAKER_01: Because,
13:58
SPEAKER_01: you know,
13:58
there's a universe in which I would say oftentimes
14:04
administrations take defeats in
14:06
the court as a opportunity to retreat from a controversial
14:12
policy initiative.
14:12
SPEAKER_01: Right.
14:13
SPEAKER_01: Like,
14:13
SPEAKER_01: I think we know that,
14:15
SPEAKER_01: like,
14:16
not every Republican Party person in America thought the
14:20
tariffs were a really wise
14:21
SPEAKER_01: course of action.
14:23
And you could take getting smacked down in court as an exit
14:27
from a policy that was
14:29
SPEAKER_01: not working that well,
14:30
SPEAKER_01: was not popular,
14:31
SPEAKER_01: was dividing his own party,
14:34
SPEAKER_01: and was mostly uniting Democrats after some early flubs,
14:39
SPEAKER_01: uh...
14:39
SPEAKER_01: back from last March.
14:40
SPEAKER_01: But Trump is opting not to do that.
14:43
SPEAKER_01: He is steering the boat back into the winds of tariffs.
14:48
SPEAKER_01: He is going to do...
14:51
SPEAKER_01: The Section 121 tariffs, which will also be litigated.
14:55
SPEAKER_01: There's Section 202 tariffs are happening.
14:57
He's saying that he's going to,
14:59
you know,
15:00
do the deals negotiations again,
15:02
like all this stuff.
15:03
SPEAKER_01: Like he's putting this in and he is maintaining that this is really good.
15:08
SPEAKER_01: And, you know, I mean...
15:13
I think there's always like some wisdom to maintaining an
15:17
upbeat narrative about
15:18
SPEAKER_01: things if you're the incumbent,
15:19
SPEAKER_01: because people's,
15:20
SPEAKER_01: you know...
15:22
SPEAKER_01: at least your own side's views are malleable.
15:24
SPEAKER_01: And if Trump starts saying,
15:26
SPEAKER_01: oh yeah,
15:27
SPEAKER_01: Democrats are right,
15:28
like the cost of living is spiraling out of control and I need
15:31
to do something
15:31
SPEAKER_01: about it,
15:32
SPEAKER_01: that might be even worse.
15:34
SPEAKER_01: But,
15:34
SPEAKER_01: you know,
15:34
SPEAKER_01: he's,
15:35
SPEAKER_01: I don't know,
15:35
SPEAKER_01: like it's a question of sincere,
15:38
SPEAKER_01: sincere conviction is maybe not the right word,
15:40
SPEAKER_01: but like this is what he wants.
15:42
SPEAKER_00: He can't take being handed his ass to him.
15:44
SPEAKER_00: Like he has to do something back at the,
15:47
SPEAKER_00: Supreme court or else.
15:48
SPEAKER_00: So they got one over on him and he can't live with that.
15:50
SPEAKER_00: That's the thing with Trump.
15:52
SPEAKER_00: Right.
15:52
SPEAKER_00: Because like,
15:53
SPEAKER_00: there's another thing he could have done,
15:55
SPEAKER_00: which is like,
15:58
SPEAKER_00: um,
15:59
SPEAKER_00: you know,
16:01
maybe with some deep inner knowledge that he'd never allowed
16:04
that the Supreme court
16:05
SPEAKER_00: had just kind of done him a favor.
16:07
SPEAKER_00: He could have lambasted them for a bad decision, you know?
16:11
SPEAKER_00: Um, but yeah,
16:14
SPEAKER_00: you know,
16:14
SPEAKER_00: claimed that he would honor it and then blamed them for people's economic
16:19
SPEAKER_00: unhappiness.
16:20
SPEAKER_00: Just say, like,
16:22
SPEAKER_00: if they had just let me do my thing,
16:24
SPEAKER_00: everyone would have been happy,
16:25
SPEAKER_00: but they took away my best tool and now everyone's miserable.
16:29
SPEAKER_00: And so take it out on John Roberts or whatever.
16:32
SPEAKER_00: Like,
16:32
SPEAKER_00: but he can't just,
16:34
SPEAKER_00: he can't sit with,
16:37
SPEAKER_00: it's like a jurisprudential version of January 6th,
16:41
SPEAKER_00: right?
16:42
Like he can't just be like,
16:44
yep,
16:44
I got an L and now I got to live with it.
16:46
SPEAKER_00: He's got to do the next thing.
16:48
SPEAKER_00: to make himself feel like he didn't get had or punked or whatever.
16:53
SPEAKER_00: And so that's why he's,
16:55
SPEAKER_00: I mean,
16:55
SPEAKER_00: I,
16:55
SPEAKER_00: like,
16:55
SPEAKER_00: I,
16:58
SPEAKER_00: I don't think there's any other,
16:59
SPEAKER_00: you know,
16:59
SPEAKER_00: cause like,
17:00
SPEAKER_00: I,
17:00
SPEAKER_00: I don't know that Trump has,
17:04
SPEAKER_00: You know,
17:04
SPEAKER_00: like if he did,
17:04
SPEAKER_00: he'd he'd go to Mike Johnson and be like,
17:07
SPEAKER_00: do a fucking reconciliation bill with some tariffs in it.
17:09
SPEAKER_01: Right.
17:10
SPEAKER_01: Well,
17:10
SPEAKER_01: I mean,
17:10
SPEAKER_01: that was also interesting was that,
17:12
SPEAKER_01: you know,
17:13
SPEAKER_01: one thing you do in these speeches is set your legislative agenda,
17:17
SPEAKER_01: which in this case,
17:18
SPEAKER_01: he I don't say he didn't set a legislative agenda,
17:21
SPEAKER_01: but what he set the table for is purely political.
17:27
SPEAKER_01: Message votes on Save America Act.
17:30
SPEAKER_01: Right.
17:31
Like he he did not put forward like we're going to do,
17:35
you know,
17:36
reconciliation 2.0.
17:38
SPEAKER_01: We're going to do some tariffs in a bill.
17:40
SPEAKER_01: He didn't he didn't put forward any bipartisan ideas.
17:44
SPEAKER_01: He didn't put forward any reconciliation.
17:45
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
18:05
in America,
18:07
of which the Somali frauds in Minneapolis were said to be just
18:12
one example.
18:13
He said that we're going to balance the budget with all the
18:17
fraud that Vice
18:18
SPEAKER_01: President Vance is going to eliminate.
18:21
SPEAKER_01: It raises the question of what Doge did a year ago,
18:25
that they left these trillions of dollars in fraud for the vice
18:29
president to find.
18:30
SPEAKER_01: That'll be an interesting one.
18:32
I do admire that Donald Trump gets in his bones that nobody has
18:37
a memory longer than a week.
18:39
SPEAKER_00: Like, that's a useful skill in politics.
18:41
SPEAKER_00: Democrats could use more of that.
18:43
SPEAKER_01: I guess.
18:44
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
18:45
I mean,
18:46
I just,
18:46
you know,
18:47
we're going to have to see some kind of baton passing effort.
18:52
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
18:53
SPEAKER_01: Probably not this year, but like next year, something like that.
18:56
SPEAKER_00: But it's interesting because he gave J.D.
18:57
SPEAKER_00: Vance the losing effort.
19:01
SPEAKER_00: That's what I mean.
19:02
SPEAKER_00: Root out fraud to balance the budget.
19:04
SPEAKER_00: He will fail at that because it's not real.
19:06
SPEAKER_00: And then he like slobber all over Marco Rubio.
19:08
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
19:09
And like this is the rivalry in the administration about who-
19:12
Well,
19:12
right.
19:13
SPEAKER_01: This one I thought was interesting is that, you know,
19:15
I don't know what's going to happen in Iran over the next
19:19
several weeks or in Cuba
19:20
over the next several months as they are under this oil
19:23
blockade or how this
19:26
SPEAKER_01: Venezuela thing,
19:27
SPEAKER_01: which so far seems to have worked out fine,
19:29
SPEAKER_01: you know,
19:29
SPEAKER_01: what its long term future is.
19:30
SPEAKER_01: But these are all things where like you could imagine it all going well.
19:36
SPEAKER_01: Right?
19:36
SPEAKER_01: Like, these are things that could work.
19:40
SPEAKER_01: Right?
19:40
SPEAKER_01: Like, the squeezing of the Cuban regime in particular...
19:47
SPEAKER_01: completely might succeed, right?
19:48
SPEAKER_01: And this has been sort of tapped as,
19:50
SPEAKER_01: like,
19:50
SPEAKER_01: Marco Rubio's sphere of activity are things where success is possible.
19:57
SPEAKER_01: Whereas he's set J.D.
19:58
SPEAKER_01: Vance up with this mission that,
20:00
SPEAKER_01: like,
20:01
SPEAKER_01: was a good applause line for,
20:03
SPEAKER_01: I guess,
20:04
SPEAKER_01: the Republican members at the thing.
20:07
SPEAKER_01: But, like...
20:08
SPEAKER_01: Like, J.D.
20:09
SPEAKER_01: Vance can't balance the budget by scouring the federal budget for fraud.
20:13
Like,
20:14
you are saying,
20:15
like,
20:15
there's a certain superpower in not having any memory for
20:19
things.
20:20
SPEAKER_01: On the other hand,
20:21
SPEAKER_01: precisely because Doge just happened,
20:23
SPEAKER_01: like,
20:24
SPEAKER_01: you and I know,
20:25
SPEAKER_01: and Donald Trump knows,
20:27
SPEAKER_01: like...
20:28
SPEAKER_01: Very little can be achieved here.
20:30
SPEAKER_01: He just went through this exercise and came away with it with nothing.
20:35
SPEAKER_01: He didn't,
20:35
SPEAKER_01: at this speech,
20:36
talk about all the money that Doge had saved people because
20:39
they didn't do
20:40
SPEAKER_01: anything.
20:40
SPEAKER_00: But the flip side, though, is that nobody will remember that he gave J.D.
20:44
SPEAKER_00: Vance this assignment.
20:45
SPEAKER_00: And unless reporters keep asking J.D.
20:48
SPEAKER_00: Vance, hey, how's the fraud hunt going?
20:50
SPEAKER_00: We're all just going to forget and move on.
20:52
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, but I think they will.
20:53
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
20:53
SPEAKER_01: Maybe.
20:54
SPEAKER_01: You know, J.D.
20:56
SPEAKER_01: is, well, it'll be an interesting thing.
20:58
SPEAKER_01: Anyway,
20:59
it felt to me a little bit like Trump has decided that he wants
21:05
to set up some
21:06
SPEAKER_01: drama around the 28 nomination.
21:10
SPEAKER_00: Yes, he wants to do The Apprentice.
21:12
SPEAKER_01: That is what I think.
21:13
SPEAKER_01: I mean,
21:14
SPEAKER_01: Vance is the obvious choice and I feel like it will be Vance at the end,
21:18
SPEAKER_01: but he at least wants to.
21:22
I saw Patrick Ruffini like a week ago being like this 2028
21:26
Republican nomination is
21:27
SPEAKER_01: going to be incredibly boring.
21:30
SPEAKER_01: And, you know, Donald Trump doesn't like boring stuff.
21:33
SPEAKER_01: Um, he likes everybody sucking up to him.
21:35
SPEAKER_01: He likes to hog attention and building Rubio up as a rival,
21:44
SPEAKER_01: you know,
21:44
SPEAKER_01: sort of,
21:45
SPEAKER_01: sort of heightens that drama.
21:46
SPEAKER_01: And I think, and I think you, you saw some of that at this speech.
21:50
SPEAKER_00: So can I, I think that look like that's 75% likely to be correct.
21:55
It's going to be either boring or it's going to be a two man
21:57
race and one of them
21:58
SPEAKER_00: is going to win or whatever.
21:59
SPEAKER_00: But like,
22:00
I think that the odds are small but increasing daily that
22:04
there's a rush to the
22:06
SPEAKER_00: exits on Donald Trump and thus on J.D.
22:08
Vance and also kind of thus on Marco Rubio and that it'll be a
22:12
free-for-all amongst
22:13
SPEAKER_00: a bunch of people who made the wise decision to back away from Trump.
22:17
SPEAKER_00: in one form or fashion,
22:19
SPEAKER_00: a lot like Marjorie Taylor Greene,
22:20
SPEAKER_00: Thomas Massey,
22:22
SPEAKER_00: maybe some old hands like Kasich or whatever,
22:24
SPEAKER_00: because like the Epstein files stuff is happening,
22:27
SPEAKER_00: right?
22:27
SPEAKER_01: I mean, yes, that definitely could happen.
22:29
SPEAKER_01: I just mean, Trump is acting less like he is afraid of,
22:34
of a intraparty rebellion and he needs to like zip things up
22:39
and more like he's
22:40
afraid of it being tedious and boring and the spotlight
22:46
drifting to the democratic
22:47
SPEAKER_01: side,
22:47
SPEAKER_01: you know,
22:48
SPEAKER_01: that he'll be irrelevant,
22:49
SPEAKER_01: right?
22:49
SPEAKER_01: He's going to be a lame duck president with the democratic Congress and,
22:54
SPEAKER_01: you know,
22:54
SPEAKER_01: fading from the stage.
22:56
SPEAKER_01: And that if he can create a little context of,
22:59
like a contest within the Trump house,
23:02
that that means that Trump keeps being important,
23:04
right?
23:05
SPEAKER_01: And people keep gossiping, you know, he likes this about Rubio.
23:08
SPEAKER_01: Oh, but he's worried Rubio's too short, you know?
23:10
SPEAKER_01: But like J.D.
23:11
SPEAKER_01: Vance, he didn't really succeed with that fraud mission.
23:14
SPEAKER_01: But like little Marco, you know, he liberated Iran.
23:19
SPEAKER_01: I mean, I don't know.
23:19
SPEAKER_01: I'm speculating, but it
23:21
SPEAKER_01: It's that's what I'm starting to see, you know, and you're also right.
23:25
SPEAKER_01: Like something could erupt.
23:27
SPEAKER_00: This is external.
23:29
SPEAKER_00: But this has been happening in the back.
23:30
SPEAKER_00: Like there's not a first time Trump has dropped.
23:33
SPEAKER_00: Like, I don't know who I like better thing.
23:35
SPEAKER_00: Rubio earlier in the administration,
23:37
when I think he was trying to be both a good soldier and also
23:40
just like finger in
23:41
SPEAKER_00: the wind,
23:42
SPEAKER_00: he did.
23:42
SPEAKER_00: He he saw things a little differently five or six months ago.
23:46
SPEAKER_00: He was like, if J.D.
23:47
SPEAKER_00: Vance seeks nomination, I'm sure he'll win.
23:48
SPEAKER_00: And I'll like excited to support him,
23:50
SPEAKER_00: like not even pretending like he could be a competent rival to him.
23:55
SPEAKER_00: And now it doesn't really look like that.
23:57
And like the one piece of all this that I can't quite figure is
24:00
that when the
24:00
SPEAKER_00: camera panned to Rubio,
24:02
SPEAKER_00: he looked really unhappy,
24:03
SPEAKER_00: like pissed.
24:04
SPEAKER_00: And like, he didn't want to be on camera.
24:06
SPEAKER_00: Like he,
24:06
SPEAKER_00: he like kind of stood up,
24:07
SPEAKER_00: did like a,
24:08
SPEAKER_00: did like a reluctant wave,
24:10
SPEAKER_00: sat back down,
24:11
SPEAKER_00: like deep in his chair.
24:12
And it was weird,
24:16
you know,
24:16
like everyone else Trump called on,
24:18
did a,
24:18
you know,
24:19
to the extent they could did like a big standing wave thing and
24:22
like tried to savor
24:24
SPEAKER_00: the moment for,
24:25
SPEAKER_00: for a minute or so.
24:27
SPEAKER_00: And he was not into it.
24:29
SPEAKER_00: And like,
24:29
SPEAKER_00: maybe he was just tired because he's liberating so many countries,
24:34
SPEAKER_00: but like,
24:35
SPEAKER_00: I wonder if he's like,
24:36
SPEAKER_00: I don't need a lot of,
24:38
SPEAKER_00: um,
24:40
SPEAKER_00: imagery.
24:40
SPEAKER_00: Um,
24:42
SPEAKER_00: more than I've already created of me sucking up to this guy.
24:46
SPEAKER_00: Um,
24:46
like given the immediate backdrop where Trump's approval
24:50
ratings are falling like a
24:52
little more every day and more and more Epstein revelations are
24:56
coming out every
24:57
SPEAKER_00: day that yeah,
24:59
Rubio might be better positioned vis-a-vis Vance than he was a
25:03
couple months ago,
25:04
SPEAKER_00: but they both might be suboptimally positioned and
25:09
to get the nomination from a president who's either like being
25:13
run out on a rail
25:14
because he's a pedophile or like he's just like at 33% and it's
25:19
like the Republican
25:19
SPEAKER_00: is going to lose anyway.
25:21
SPEAKER_00: Like that's the nomination you don't actually want to win.
25:23
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
25:24
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
25:26
SPEAKER_01: Maybe.
25:27
SPEAKER_01: I mean, that seems a little overly optimistic to me.
25:30
SPEAKER_00: I mean, you should not bank on what I'm saying.
25:33
SPEAKER_01: That's an aggressive read of the vibes and the dynamics.
25:38
SPEAKER_01: Should we take a break and you can take a victory lap on...
25:43
SPEAKER_01: you know, abstentionism from the speech?
25:45
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, sure.
25:47
SPEAKER_00: We'll talk about whether the Dems should have shown up,
25:50
SPEAKER_00: whether the Dems who did show up will feel good about that decision,
25:54
and a little bit of Abigail Spanberger and her stated response
25:59
on the other side of
26:00
SPEAKER_00: the paywall.
26:00
SPEAKER_00: If you want to hear that part of the conversation,
26:02
SPEAKER_00: go to politics.fm and upgrade your subscription.